Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the dual innovation sector (Science and Technology Innovation Board + Growth Enterprise Market) has become a shining main line in the domestic market, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index showing remarkable performance in 2025, and there are expectations for new opportunities in 2026 [1][8] Group 2 - In 2025, the dual innovation sector emerged as a core force driving the growth style of A-shares, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index achieving an annual increase of 64.32%, significantly outperforming major indices like CSI 300 (18.21%) and CSI 500 (22.78%) [2][5] - The trading volume of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index increased by 120.68% compared to 2024, indicating strong market recognition of hard technology core assets [2][5] Group 3 - The excellent performance of the dual innovation sector in 2025 can be attributed to several factors: 1. An upward industrial cycle and improved profitability, with technology breakthroughs and performance landing in hard technology sectors creating a virtuous cycle [5] 2. A relatively loose funding environment, enhanced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which increased risk appetite for growth-style investments [5] 3. Policy dividends supporting the deepening of the technology-driven national strategy, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" promoting self-reliance in technology benefiting key industries like semiconductors and AI [5][8] Group 4 - For 2026, the dual innovation sector is expected to benefit from a dual drive of policy and industrial upgrades, with key focus areas including: 1. The domestic substitution and profitability realization of the AI industry chain, driven by the continuous expansion of AI applications and increasing semiconductor demand [9] 2. Supply-demand optimization and profitability improvement in industries like photovoltaics and power batteries, as "anti-involution" policies aim to correct vicious competition and promote structural reforms [12] Group 5 - The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, which includes 50 major strategic emerging companies from the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market, covers nearly 90% of the electronic, power equipment, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors, providing a balanced exposure to core growth sectors [13] - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation ETF (159781) is highlighted as a convenient tool for investors to track the index performance and capture the benefits of new productive forces and technological advancements, with a current scale of 11.99 billion [13]

正信期货指出，现货小幅累库，终端需求后续或将放缓，基本面后续或仍有转弱压力。短期，宏观预期 有所改善，关注反弹高度。 12月31日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报1091.00元/吨，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至发稿，玻璃主力最高触及1098.00元，下方探低1080.00元，涨幅达1.49%附近。 目前来看，玻璃行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于玻璃后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 混沌天成期货表示，玻璃价格跌至历史较低位，行业利润较差，已经有部分产能确认退出，价格继续下 跌将会有更多厂家冷修，向下空间有限，2026年我们预期玻璃需求继续大幅下降，供需平衡的日熔量大 概在14.4万吨左右(仅供参考)，需要1万吨/天以上产能冷修才能实现供需再平衡，在悲观预期下，目前 行业利润挤压已经接近极致，不宜继续看空，需要等待产能出清，2026年政策继续反内卷，可能加速落 后产能淘汰，将利好远期。在产能出清过程中，多空可能会反复博弈。 银河期货分析称，短期玻璃供应下降给基本面提供支撑，期价或延续坚挺震荡趋势。后续随着春节临 近，下游停工放假仍将给需求及价格施压。目前总体玻璃仍然以 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - December PMI overall rebounded, with manufacturing PMI rising 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing 0.7 points to 50.2[4] - Composite PMI for December was 50.7, up 1.0 points from previous values, marking a rebound after consecutive declines in October and November[4] - Manufacturing PMI in December is notably higher than the ten-year average decline of 0.3 points for the same period, indicating a seasonal anomaly[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large enterprises saw a PMI rebound of 1.5 points, while small enterprises experienced a contraction of 0.5 points, reflecting a divergence in business conditions[5] - December BCI was 49.8, down from 51.6, and EPMI was 49.1, down from 52.7, indicating a significant seasonal decline[6] - Construction PMI surged to 52.8 in December from below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather and policy-driven infrastructure investments[10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Indicators - Supply and demand indicators showed synchronized rebounds, with production and procurement indices rising 1.7 and 1.6 points respectively[6] - New orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 points and 1.4 points, respectively, indicating improved business activity expectations[6] - The business activity expectation index rose to 56.5, up from 56.2, suggesting positive sentiment among businesses[8] Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material procurement price index slightly decreased to 53.1 from 53.6, while the factory price index increased to 48.9 from 48.2, indicating a mixed price environment[10] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to continue influencing price dynamics positively[9] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Risks include unexpected changes in the external economic and financial environment, geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in construction activity in Q1[12] - The report suggests that domestic policy benefits and improvements in fundamentals may create favorable conditions for Q1 data[12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wenkang Securities indicates that the demand for photovoltaic (PV) energy is currently weak, with production declining in recent months. The domestic market is constrained by electricity prices, while the European market faces challenges due to insufficient grid infrastructure. The U.S. market is hindered by the rapid decline of subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, leading to overall weak demand across these regions [1][3]. Photovoltaic Industry - Short-term demand for photovoltaic energy is weak, with production continuously declining in recent months. The domestic market is limited by electricity pricing, while the European market is affected by inadequate grid facilities. The U.S. market is facing challenges due to the rapid reduction of subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, resulting in weak demand overall [1][3]. - The focus of the industry is shifting towards the supply side, with "anti-involution" measures leading to improved pricing in the supply chain. The prices in the upstream sector have returned to reasonable levels, and there is an upward trend in the mid and downstream sectors. The estimated component price is between 0.80 to 0.85 yuan/W, assuming a net profit margin of 5% across various segments [3]. - Investment opportunities are primarily found in the valuation recovery driven by anti-involution measures and advancements in new technologies, such as the copper-to-silver cost reduction scheme and the industrialization of perovskite technology [3][5]. Wind Power Industry - The demand for wind power is mainly concentrated in the European market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% for onshore wind and 34% for offshore wind. Current data on European wind power orders and Final Investment Decisions (FID) show significant growth, particularly with offshore wind FID amounts increasing by 1.8 times year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. - The wind turbine bidding prices have been rising since Q3 2024, indicating an improvement in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers. The trend towards larger wind turbines is expected to ease price pressures, leading to sustained profitability improvements [4]. - The global wind power supply chain is primarily located in the Asia-Pacific region, with China being the core of this supply chain. Many components needed by the European and American markets, such as gearboxes, blades, converters, turbines, and tower foundations, are sourced from China, providing opportunities for Chinese wind power companies to expand internationally [4]. - Several companies have begun to establish production capacity in overseas markets, with some already achieving significant revenue from international operations, which supports their overall performance. This trend is expected to continue [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall PMI in December shows a rebound, with manufacturing PMI rising by 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing by 0.7 points to 50.2, indicating a recovery after consecutive declines in October and November [1][4][5]. Group 1: PMI Performance - The composite PMI reached 50.7, up 1.0 points from the previous value, marking a significant rebound after two months of decline [1][4][7]. - December's manufacturing PMI typically experiences a seasonal decline, with the average PMI over the past decade decreasing by 0.3 points during this period; however, this year shows a notable deviation from seasonal trends [1][4]. Group 2: Soft Indicators - Among the three soft indicators, both EPMI and BCI have shown a slowdown, with large enterprises' PMI rebounding by 1.5 points while small enterprises' PMI contracted by 0.5 points, indicating a divergence in economic conditions between large and small firms [8][10]. - The BCI, which is biased towards small and medium enterprises, has declined, while the EPMI's drop may relate to policies emphasizing the development of new productive forces [8][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand components of the PMI have rebounded in a relatively balanced manner, with production and procurement indices rising by 1.7 and 1.6 points, respectively; new orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 and 1.4 points [2][10]. - Business activity expectations also rose by 0.3 points, reflecting positive sentiment in anticipation of supportive policies from the central economic work conference regarding investment, consumption, and real estate [2][10]. Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material purchasing price index slightly decreased from a high level, while the factory price index continued to rise, supporting the notion that "anti-involution" measures are having an effect [2][13]. - The central economic work conference has set a tone for addressing "involution-style competition" by 2026, suggesting ongoing changes in supply-demand relationships and pricing [2][13]. Group 5: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI saw a significant rebound to 52.8 after being below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather conditions and proactive construction efforts ahead of the upcoming holidays [18][19]. - The rebound in the construction sector is also linked to the rollout of policy financial tools in the fourth quarter, which is crucial for maintaining momentum into the March construction season [18][19]. Group 6: Summary of December PMI - The December PMI reflects a seasonal rebound in manufacturing under the guidance of the central economic work conference's policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [22]. - The construction sector's recovery after four months of low performance is attributed to investment stabilization and the impact of previously implemented financial policies [22]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" efforts are contributing to improvements in factory price indices, creating favorable conditions for a strong start in the first quarter of the following year [22].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 marks significant advancements in China's medical insurance system, showcasing resilience and a focus on people's health through various reforms and initiatives [1][20]. Group 1: "1+3+N" Multi-layered Medical Security System - The National Healthcare Security Administration emphasizes the establishment of a "1+3+N" multi-layered medical security system, which includes a unified national medical insurance information platform, three levels of basic medical insurance, and support for commercial health insurance and other forms of assistance [2][21]. - The reimbursement rates for inpatient expenses under employee and resident medical insurance have reached approximately 80% and 70%, respectively, while the level of serious illness insurance has increased by 10 to 15 percentage points [2][21]. Group 2: Dual Directory System - The introduction of the "dual directory" system, which includes the National Basic Medical Insurance and Commercial Health Insurance Innovation Drug Directories, represents a significant step in defining the boundaries of basic and commercial insurance [3][23]. - In 2025, the basic medical insurance directory added 114 new drugs, with 50 being innovative drugs of significant clinical value, achieving a historic high [3][23]. Group 3: Provincial Coordination - The push for provincial coordination of basic medical insurance aims to enhance fairness and sustainability within the system, with 20 provinces already advancing this initiative [5][24]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration has mandated the optimization of fund management and the establishment of provincial adjustment funds to support this coordination [5][24]. Group 4: Anti-Overcompetition - The eleventh round of centralized drug procurement has shifted towards a focus on quality and sustainability, with the concept of "anti-overcompetition" introduced to prevent irrational price competition [6][24]. - Mechanisms have been implemented to ensure rational pricing and to enhance clinical choice, allowing medical institutions to report quantities based on specific brands [6][26]. Group 5: Real-World Research - Real-world research (RWS) has been established as a key tool for evaluating the comprehensive value of drugs and medical technologies, aiming to support sustainable fund management and high-quality industry development [7][25]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration is planning to integrate real-world evaluation results into the entire chain of medical insurance payment and management [7][27]. Group 6: Long-term Care Workers - Long-term care workers have been introduced as a new profession to support long-term care services, with over 3,500 candidates participating in skill assessments across 28 provinces [10][29]. - The long-term care insurance system has covered nearly 300 million people, benefiting over 3.3 million individuals with disabilities [10][30]. Group 7: Maternity Insurance System - The maternity insurance system aims to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within policy coverage, with 2.55 billion people enrolled in maternity insurance during the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][30]. - The plan includes expanding coverage to flexible workers and improving prenatal care expense coverage [11][12]. Group 8: Drug Traceability Codes - The implementation of drug traceability codes has led to the collection of 39.885 billion codes, enhancing consumer protection and combating drug return issues [14][32]. - By July 2025, all medical institutions will be required to implement full traceability code collection [14][32]. Group 9: Three Settlement Reforms - The "three settlements" reform (instant, direct, and synchronized settlements) aims to reshape the payment ecosystem in the healthcare sector, with significant progress made in instant settlements covering 593,600 medical institutions [15][33]. - Direct settlements are designed to expedite payments to enterprises, reducing the average payment cycle from 180 days to under 30 days [15][33]. Group 10: Medical Service Pricing Guidelines - The National Healthcare Security Administration is working on standardizing medical service pricing across provinces to enhance transparency and service quality [18][35]. - By 2026, the administration aims to complete the compilation of 40 pricing guidelines to unify medical service pricing projects nationwide [18][35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided, but specific investment suggestions for various products are given, such as "bullish" for PVC, "bearish" for container shipping on the European line, and "suggested to buy on dips" for some metals [1] Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks. Commodities show diverse trends, with some metals like nickel and stainless steel expected to be strong, and agricultural products and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand and price trends [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index has further risen, with increased trading volume, positive market sentiment, and liquidity. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Metals - **Copper**: Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the continuous premium of US copper have led to a further increase in copper prices. There is a short - term adjustment risk, but the upward trend is expected to remain [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, with limited industrial drivers, so the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short - term. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies on resource - constrained industries may affect the price of alumina, which has rebounded from an oversold state [1] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center moving up. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, but market sentiment is volatile, so the zinc price will fluctuate [1] - **Nickel**: Due to the expected reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 and concerns about supply, the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly, and it may remain strong in the short - term. Short - term low - buying is recommended, but over - chasing high is not advisable [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, and the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased. Steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The initiative of the non - ferrous tin industry branch to guide the price back to the normal range has pressured the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there is still a possibility of supply fermentation. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities near the support level after a short - term correction [1] - **Precious Metals**: After a sharp adjustment, precious metals may gradually stabilize and enter a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for gold in the follow - up [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: After two consecutive daily limit drops, the futures - spot divergence has improved, and the premium over the foreign market has narrowed. In the short - term, they are expected to enter a range - bound shock. In the long - term, platinum can still be bought on dips or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] Energy - Chemical Products - **Polysilicon and Silicone**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices but a low willingness to deliver, and short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - short positions in the futures - spot arbitrage can take rolling profits. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1] - **Black Metals**: The black metal market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. The current direct demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is accumulating, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the level of the fourth - round cut and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the price - cut implementation period [1] - **Palm Oil**: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the January USDA report [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recent news has led to a significant rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent weakening fundamentals. It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and waiting and seeing is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The domestic new crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a state of "supported but without a driver" [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1] - **Corn**: The grass - roots grain sales progress of corn is fast, and the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the mid - downstream restocking demand [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial to the near - month contracts and the long - short arbitrage. The US soybean exports are weak, and the South American weather has no obvious speculation drivers [1] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures are affected by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 inverse spread [1] - **Log Fibreboard**: Affected by the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short - term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **BR Rubber**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may show a cumulative trend [1] - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device maintains a high load, the polyester pre - holiday inventory and sales have improved, and the new polyester device has been put into production, maintaining a high consumption of PTA [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production next month. After a continuous decline, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The downstream polyester start - up rate is high, and the overall sales are high [1] - **Styrene**: The price of Asian styrene has rebounded briefly after continuous decline, mainly due to supply - side contraction. The demand for polymer downstream products is weak, but the warming of the commodity market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] - **PE**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is high, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand has weakened, the crude oil price has decreased, and the market expectation is weak in 2026 [1] - **PP**: The number of overhauls is small, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, but the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude oil price provide strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The global production capacity will be less in 2026, and the future is expected to reach the bottom of the cycle. There will be less subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, supply pressure will increase, and demand will weaken [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong, with a price - cut pressure [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental loosening logic. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded, the northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure [1] Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December, so it is bearish [1]

Core Insights - The article summarizes key developments in China and the world in 2025, focusing on economic policies, market trends, and significant events that shaped various industries. Group 1: Economic Policies and Reforms - The main theme of 2025's economic work is the comprehensive rectification of "involution" in competition, with government reports emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality [4] - The year marks the conclusion of the deepening reform of state-owned enterprises, with significant progress in strategic restructuring and improved governance [6] - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" aims to create a fair business environment and protect the rights of private enterprises [7] Group 2: Debt Management and Fiscal Policies - A plan to replace 10 trillion yuan of hidden local government debt over five years was launched, with nearly 6 trillion yuan replaced by the end of 2025, significantly reducing debt risks [8] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan, supporting major projects and expanding policies to boost consumption [9] Group 3: Consumer and Market Trends - A special action plan to boost consumption was introduced, focusing on increasing residents' income and improving consumer confidence [10] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index reach 4,000 points for the first time in ten years, with total trading volume exceeding 400 trillion yuan [13] Group 4: Industry Developments - The gold market experienced a historic surge, with prices rising from $2,625 to a peak of $4,550 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic factors and central bank purchases [14] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer" on the STAR Market accelerated the IPO process for unprofitable companies, marking a significant shift in capital market dynamics [19] Group 5: Corporate Events and Challenges - The external delivery market saw increased competition with new entrants like JD and Taobao, reshaping the landscape and enhancing consumer choices [22] - The controversy surrounding Wahaha highlighted family disputes and governance issues within the company, affecting its market position [23] - The restaurant industry faced challenges as the crisis at Xibei over pre-made dishes prompted a reevaluation of consumer trust and operational practices [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The steel market continues to oscillate. With low supply and demand, there is some support at low prices. After January, market funds may be more abundant, and the hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, strong expectations persist, and the prices are on the stronger side. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot price cut news did not lead to a continuous decline in the futures market. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - For iron ore, small - scale rumors drive short - term fluctuations. The price has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 30, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, JM2609 were 3177.00, 3302.00, 767.00, 1795.50, 1200.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.00, - 10.00, - 3.50, 10.50, 12.00 yuan and - 0.06%, - 0.30%, - 0.45%, 0.59%, 1.01% [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: On December 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, JM2605 - 2609 were - 43.00, - 20.00, 22.00, - 80.50, - 80.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Differences/Ratios/Profits**: On December 30, the coil - to - screw spread was 148.00 yuan/ton, the screw - to - ore ratio was 3.97, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.53, the screw surface profit was - 83.10 yuan/ton, and the coking surface profit was 226.07 yuan/ton [1]. Steel Market - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the futures prices were stable, and the spot prices fluctuated slightly. The supply - demand structure was weak in both supply and demand. The pressure of destocking plates was prominent. After January, the molten iron output may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some restocking behavior [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Unilateral trading can be based on an oscillatory approach. After January, it is beneficial for futures - spot positions to enter the market, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The supply pressure of ferrosilicon is relatively lighter than that of silicomanganese [3]. - **Cost and Policy Factors**: The cost support of silicomanganese has strengthened, and relevant policies have formed constraints and cost support expectations for the supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in cross - month reverse arbitrage [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Market - **Market Situation**: The fourth round of spot price cuts for coke is expected to start. The futures market rebounded after the price dropped to the position of the fourth - round price cut. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for the time being [6]. Iron Ore Market - **Market Situation**: Affected by rumors, the iron ore price has risen, but the upside space is limited. The port inventory will continue to rise, and the steel apparent demand has declined slightly. The iron ore price has limited upside and downside space [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines [6].

让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：陈为昌 黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/12/26 2026 年年度策略报告 钢材 产业格局面临重塑，周期底部等待新生 2025 年钢材弱需求贯穿始终，对行情形成了持续压制。阶段性的上行驱 动来自控产政策预期以及焦煤供给端减量提振。全年振幅 500 元/吨左右，波 动性下降，运行中枢进一步下移。 2026 年"反内卷"将进入落地执行阶段，但在钢铁行业稳增长方案以及 焦煤进口定调增长的背景下，或难出现 2025 年 6-7 月份的拉涨行情。宏观政 策大概率维持防风险，促企稳的思路，但仍有阶段性提振。 房地产新开工面积仍存在回落空间，2026 年仍将处于寻底状态；基建投 资增速难有明显改观。"十五五"规划或推动一批重大基建项目落地，或能 为市场提供短期交易机会。制造业冷热不均，但相对 2025 年边际或有一定收 缩可能。叠加钢材及钢坯出口的减量预期，2026 年需 ...