1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, with increasing geopolitical concerns. The US Navy's largest aircraft carrier arrived near Latin America, and Russia's energy exports are expected to decline significantly at the end of the month. India, one of the largest buyers, has reduced its share, which supports crude oil. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger. SC2512 is expected to operate in the 465 - 475 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The Republican - controlled House of Representatives is expected to vote on a compromise plan to end the 42 - day government shutdown. Although the US imposed new sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Russian oil shipments from ports remained stable in early November, but India has reduced its Russian crude oil purchases in December [3]. - **Basis**: On November 11, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37/barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.33/barrel. The basis was 29.51 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending October 31, US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels. As of November 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of November 4, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **India's Crude Oil Purchase**: India's five major core refiners have not placed any orders for Russian crude oil for next month. This change occurred after Trump doubled the tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% in August and sanctioned two major Russian oil producers last month [5]. - **Ukrainian Attack on Russian Refinery**: Ukraine claimed to have launched a second attack on a key Russian oil refinery in the Volga region this month. The Saratov refinery, which can process about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day, has been the target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks this year [5]. - **Nigeria's Oil and Gas Production**: With the approval of 43 oil field development plans this year, Nigeria is expected to add 1.7 billion barrels of oil production and 770 billion cubic feet of natural gas production, involving an investment of about $20 billion [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, the US - Russia talks are cancelled and sanctions against Russia increase, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while there is a risk of increased supply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $64.06 to $65.16, an increase of 1.72%; WTI crude oil increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; SC crude oil decreased from 460.2 to 459.2, a decrease of 0.22%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.63 to $64.99, an increase of 0.56% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $62.60 to $64.39, an increase of 2.86%; WTI increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; Oman crude oil decreased from $65.64 to $65.37, a decrease of 0.41%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $60.87 to $60.62, a decrease of 0.41%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $65.62 to $65.46, a decrease of 0.24% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from July 22 to September 23 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from August 26 to October 28 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [19].

Group 1 - Gold prices have stabilized and are on an upward trend after a recent adjustment, supported by unsustainable high debt levels in major economies, strategic allocations by long-term investors, declining real interest rates, and increasing global risk events [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, suggests that when debt exceeds repayment capacity, central banks often create significant amounts of money and credit, leading to high inflation and gold prices, advocating for gold as a fundamental currency [1] - UBS reports that gold's core positions are becoming more resilient, with central banks increasing gold purchases to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar, alongside retail investors buying gold through ETFs, potentially driving prices higher [1] Group 2 - Recent gold price declines were attributed to profit-taking after a surge and unexpected easing of geopolitical tensions, but the recent rise in both gold and US stocks suggests that the previous correction was sufficient [2] - Despite the easing of significant risks like a US government shutdown, the frequency of geopolitical risk events remains high, which could continue to catalyze upward movement in gold prices [2] - Investors interested in gold exposure can consider gold ETFs (518800) or gold stock ETFs (517400) for potential opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core driving force behind the recent increase in gold prices is the rising expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, fueled by weak U.S. employment and consumer confidence data [1] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, provide solid support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The combination of favorable factors has led to strong buying interest in gold, resulting in a continuous price increase [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is showing a strong upward trend, with daily charts indicating a bullish candlestick pattern and a bullish MACD crossover, suggesting that bulls are in control [3] - The recent end of a 40-day U.S. government shutdown has led to the upcoming release of key economic data, which may cause significant market volatility and provide new guidance for Federal Reserve policy [3] - Discussions around potential U.S. fiscal stimulus may heighten inflation concerns, further emphasizing gold's hedging value [3] Group 3 - A trading strategy is suggested to buy on dips within the price range of 4126-4120, with a stop loss of 10 USD and a target of 4160-4180 [4]

Group 1 - The Philippines' economy has been significantly impacted by a widespread infrastructure corruption scandal, leading to a growth rate of only 4.0% in Q3, the slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic began [1][3] - The corruption scandal has severely undermined consumer and investor confidence, with public construction growth contracting by 26.1%, the lowest level since 2011 [3] - Estimated economic losses from corruption in flood control projects alone amount to approximately 118.5 billion pesos, with total losses in public infrastructure from 2022 to 2025 projected at around 623.5 billion pesos [1][3] Group 2 - The Philippine peso has experienced a sharp decline, reflecting market concerns over economic stability and potential growth slowdown due to infrastructure spending controversies [3] - The government is facing challenges in achieving its annual growth target of 5.5%, with current growth rates falling short of expectations [3] - Geopolitical risks have deterred foreign investment, particularly from Chinese and Western multinational companies, leading to a shift of potential investments to neighboring countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new round of fuel price adjustments due to fluctuations in international oil prices, resulting in a slight increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices starting from November 10 at 24:00 [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From November 10 at 24:00, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 125 and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, leading to an average increase of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan [1]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Conditions - The global crude oil market is currently characterized by an overall supply surplus, with international oil prices showing narrow fluctuations during the adjustment period, averaging higher than the previous adjustment cycle [3]. - Brent crude oil futures are currently oscillating in the range of 63 to 65 dollars per barrel [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations - There are significant uncertainties regarding geopolitical risks, particularly the potential escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, which could impact oil supply [5]. - Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, which may provide support for oil prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices effective from November 10, 2025, due to recent fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the 22nd adjustment of the year and the 7th increase, with a pattern of "seven increases, nine decreases, and six stabilities" for the year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to an increase of 0.10 yuan per liter for both 92 gasoline and 0 diesel [1] - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost an additional 5 yuan [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The recent adjustment period (October 25 - November 7) saw narrow fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures averaging between 63 to 65 USD per barrel [1] - Factors affecting oil prices include concerns over economic outlook and oversupply due to the longest U.S. government shutdown, increased U.S. crude oil inventories, and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as ongoing sanctions against Russia [2] - Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise with the onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially providing support for oil prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logics include short - term hedging due to geopolitical risks after the Sino - US talks, the weakening US employment and moderate inflation leading to potential Fed rate cuts, the impact of the US government shutdown and consumer confidence on the currency attribute, and the influence of the CRB commodity index and RMB appreciation on the commodity attribute [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold closed at $4007.80 per ounce, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.14% from last week; London gold closed at $3994.10 per ounce, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 0.43% from last week; Shanghai gold futures closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.60% from the previous day and 1.45% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68% from the previous day and 1.39% from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai gold futures positions decreased by 9.72% from last week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 2.23% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week; Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1.32% from last week [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver closed at $48.23 per ounce, up 0.79% from the previous day and down 0.05% from last week; London silver closed at $48.70 per ounce, up 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai silver futures closed at 11,719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05% from the previous day and 2.30% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14% from the previous day and 2.48% from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai silver futures positions decreased by 2.91% from last week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 2.65% from last week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 6.53% from last week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.48% from last week; Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 7.42% from last week [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve and Monetary Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25; the Fed's total assets are $6623.643 billion, down 0.00% from last week; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 [8]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, down 1.23% from the previous day and up 1.69% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.16% from the previous day and 0.18% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and 16.13% from last week [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%, up 0.14; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.91%, up 0.05 [10]. - **Economic Growth and Other Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.80%, up 4.40; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, down 0.57 million [10].

11月10日，记者从中国黄金协会获悉，2025年前三季度我国黄金产量271.782吨，同比上 升1.39%；黄金消费量682.730吨，同比下降7.95%。 国际、国内金价双双拉升，伦敦现货黄金报4073.05美元/盎司，COMEX黄金报4076美 元/盎司，上海黄金交易所现货黄金（Au99.99）价报933.30元/克。 2025年前三季度我国黄金产量 消费量数据发布 黄金生产方面，据中国黄金协会最新统计数据，2025年前三季度，国内原料产金271.782 吨，比2024年同期增加3.714吨，同比增长1.39%；另有进口原料产金121.149吨，同比 增长8.94%；国内原料和进口原料共计生产黄金392.931吨，同比增长3.60%。 据介绍，2025年前三季度，黄金行业紧盯高质量发展目标，一批具备战略意义的重点勘 查、开发项目稳步推进，为行业可持续发展注入强劲动力。辽宁省大东沟金矿初步评审金资 源量近1500吨，有望成为继山东胶东金矿之后我国又一个世界级金矿。我国超深矿井建设 技术实现里程碑式突破，三山岛金矿副井井筒工程安全顺利落底，最终深度锁定2005米。 黄金消费方面，2025年前三季度，我国黄金消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China will increase for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, 2023 [1] Group 1: International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown a downward trend overall, despite some support from geopolitical factors and OPEC's decision to halt production increases in the first quarter of next year [2] - The average Brent crude oil price is currently fluctuating between 63 to 65 USD per barrel, indicating a slight increase compared to the previous pricing cycle [1][2] - The global oil market is characterized by an oversupply, but potential changes in geopolitical risks and seasonal demand could influence future price movements [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic fuel market is experiencing a divergence in demand, with gasoline prices declining due to weak terminal demand, while diesel prices are supported by stable weather and ongoing industrial activities [2] - Analysts predict that the new pricing cycle may start with a negative change rate based on current oil prices, suggesting continued volatility in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of domestic fuel price adjustments will take effect on November 10, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing slightly due to fluctuations in international oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From November 10, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will be raised by 125 and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, leading to an increase of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel on average nationwide [1]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The global crude oil market is currently characterized by an overall supply surplus [4]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, could escalate, potentially impacting Venezuelan oil supply [4]. - Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, which may provide support for oil prices [4].