Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in oil and gas stocks is primarily driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply [2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On June 19, A-share oil and gas stocks experienced significant gains, with companies like Shouhua Gas, Tongyuan Petroleum, and Blue Flame Holdings hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [1][4]. - In the Hong Kong market, low-priced oil and gas stocks also saw a resurgence, with China Oilfield Services rising over 125% at one point [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has led to fears of oil supply interruptions, contributing to a sharp increase in international crude oil prices [2][5]. - On June 19, Iran launched a new wave of missile attacks against Israel, using over 20 missiles, which has further escalated tensions in the region [2][12]. Group 3: Oil Supply and Market Outlook - According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran's current production of crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids is approximately 4.8 million barrels per day, with exports averaging around 1.7 million barrels per day this year [5]. - Concerns about potential sanctions on Iranian oil and the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, which accounts for about 25% of global oil shipping traffic, are expected to keep oil prices volatile and on an upward trend [5].

以色列和伊朗之间的战事愈演愈烈。由于中东地区的战争与和平，在地缘政治和能源安全层面举足轻 重，所以，如今全球的注意力，尤其是全球能源市场的注意力，都聚焦在这场战事上。 以色列不仅轰炸了伊朗的核设施、定点炸死了伊朗军事领导人和核科学家，也开始攻击伊朗的能源基础 设施，包括袭击了至少两座天然气加工厂和两座燃料库。作为回应，伊朗袭击了为以色列最大炼油厂服 务的管道与输电线路。 一、特朗普正在权衡是否参战 能源市场的分析师们普遍认为，以色列针对伊朗能源设施的袭击，是一场高风险的赌博，给全球能源市 场带来了更多风险，也让能源价格变得越来越不稳定，但他们仍然在努力预测这场冲突最终将会对全球 能源市场产生多大影响，并试图评估美国直接卷入这场冲突的可能性，以及可能出现的能源供应的重大 中断，特别是最坏的情况，如伊朗封锁连接波斯湾和阿曼湾的战略要地——霍尔木兹海峡。 6月17日，美国总统特朗普呼吁伊朗政权"无条件投降"，并警告德黑兰说，美国的耐心正在耗尽。6月18 日，特朗普又表示，他正在考虑是否加入以色列对伊朗核设施的打击。 自从6月13日以色列首次对伊朗发起空袭以来，国际基准的布伦特（Brent）原油和美国西得克萨斯中间 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-19 美联储维持利率不变，点阵图凸显内部分歧 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。中国5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，较前值继续回落，主 要受制造业拖累，美国关税的不利影响显现。中国5月消费走强，工业生产偏弱，投资三大分项增速均下行，国内 经济基础仍待夯实。中国5月按美元计出口同比增长4.8%，略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，进口下降3.4%。从 集装箱的船运数据来看，5月上旬出口有所改善，但到了下旬又重新走弱。新一轮"抢出口"成色一般的背景下，前 期透支的需求会重新回到偏弱的去库周期中。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码 的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内 瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。2025年陆家嘴论 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-19 伊朗PX装置停车，市场情绪偏强 市场要闻与数据 6月18日，PX/PTA/PF主力合约分别上涨3.83%、3.45%、3.05%，主要原因是中东地缘冲突带来的原油价格大幅上 涨以及PX供需紧张下的情绪驱动。 一方面原油价格走势偏强，成本支撑PX/PTA价格，主要驱动依然来自于地缘冲突。中东局势当前仍较为紧张，虽 然伊朗与以色列没有再袭击能源基础设施，但霍尔木兹海峡的船只雷达信号被干扰，昨日有两艘油轮在海峡附近 相撞起火，部分船只可能选择回避，船东的避险动作已经开始显现。另一方面，美国直接参与本次冲突的概率增 加，特朗普可能让美军直接打击伊朗核设施，这会让冲突的事态显著升级，伊朗石油生产与出口存在断供风险。 极端情况下，伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡用以报复，这将使得整个阿拉伯湾石油出口受到影响，原油市场供应将 大幅收紧。 另一方面，PTA/PX现货供应依然偏紧，周内窗口内外商积极挺价进一步助涨PX涨幅，周三早上浮动价8月在+20/+35 商谈，9月在+10/+25商谈，较上周大幅提升；另外伊朗142万吨PX装置因战争因素停车，重启待定，此前该装置半 负荷运行；同时市场对于国内PX ...

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/19 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/桶 | 75.14 | 74.84 | 0.40% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/桶 | 76.70 | 76.45 | 0.33% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/吨 | 633.13 | 625.63 | 1.20% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/6/18 | | 美元/吨 | 759.50 | 745.50 | 1.88% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/吨 | 888.00 | 884.00 | 0.45% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/18 | 元/吨 | 4914 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is influenced by factors such as Fed's stance, US economic data, and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold is in a long - term bullish trend, while short - term fluctuations are affected by geopolitical variables. Silver shows strong rebounds but requires careful position control [5][6]. - In the base metals market, copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to global copper supply shortages and strategic importance, but short - term risks need to be watched. Zinc has a long - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation, while short - term it has limited downside due to cost support. Aluminum shows short - term strength in the near - month but faces supply - related pressure. Nickel is under pressure due to supply and downstream inventory issues [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply surplus persists, and prices are expected to decline due to increasing inventory expectations [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold slightly declined as geopolitical situations did not expand. Silver showed strong rebounds. SHFE gold was at 785.42, up 0.04% from the previous value, and SHFE silver was at 9045, up 2.04% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed kept rates unchanged, US economic data weakened, and there were geopolitical uncertainties. In the long - term, the trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary easing remains, supporting the long - term bullish view of gold [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, consider long - term positions when the opportunity arises, with short - term attention on the 800 resistance. For silver, pay attention to recent high resistance and control positions [6]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas soft - squeeze risks. The consumption off - season has led to downstream hesitation, but green copper demand has offset some traditional demand shortages [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions cautiously and take partial profits at high prices. Be optimistic about copper in the long - term. SHFE copper should be monitored in the range of [78000, 79500], and LME copper in the range of [9650, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated around the upper integer level. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 21955 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe in the short - term. In the long - term, take short positions on rallies. SHFE zinc should be monitored in the range of [21800, 22200], and LME zinc in the range of [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - month, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend. The main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20680 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In June, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot casting led to inventory depletion. The overseas bauxite supply is high, and the alumina supply surplus continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main contract should be monitored in the range of [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel showed a weak trend. The main contract of SHFE nickel closed at 118480 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the decline in Indonesian nickel ore prices have weakened cost support. Stainless steel inventory pressure has resurfaced as the terminal enters the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main contract of nickel should be monitored in the range of [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and rose, with an intraday high - then - low movement [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus of lithium carbonate persists. During the off - season of terminal demand, production has recovered to a high level, and inventory is expected to increase, driving prices down [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies in the range of [59000 - 61000] [16].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a slowdown in future rate cuts and anticipating "considerably high inflation" in the coming months, which led to the dollar index rising to 99 before closing at 98.89, up 0.05% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.397%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.952%, reflecting initial declines followed by increases [1] - Gold prices fell by 0.60% to $3368.49 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and tariff-driven inflation concerns stemming from Trump's aggressive tariff agenda [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching above $3450, falling over 1% and hitting a low of $3370, indicating a likely continuation of downward adjustments towards the $3290 support level [3] - The market is currently focused on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the implications of Trump's tariffs, which are expected to influence gold price movements [3] - Oil prices saw a sharp increase of over 13% last Friday, surpassing $77, but subsequently fell back to around $73, with expectations of continued volatility unless geopolitical tensions escalate further [5] Group 3 - The oil market is primarily affected by the conflict with Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact nearly 20% of global oil transport [3] - OPEC+ is currently in a phase of accelerated production increases, contributing to supply pressures in the oil market, which may lead to significant selling pressure if conflicts ease [5] - The recommendation for trading strategies suggests focusing on short positions in the oil market, particularly in the $74-$74.50 range, anticipating a drop to $69.50-$70 [5]

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to pressure precious metals in the short term, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions providing some structural support for gold prices [1][2] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade frictions, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [2] - The recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a temporary spike in gold prices, but the sustainability of this increase is questioned due to the lack of significant physical demand [3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June and signaled a hawkish outlook, with the dot plot indicating two potential rate cuts this year, although seven officials support no cuts [1] - Inflation data continues to fall below expectations, paving the way for potential rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut increasing according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The dollar index has risen significantly, impacting the valuation of precious metals and creating a counterbalance to the geopolitical risks [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is at a critical stage, with negotiations between European nations and Iran facing uncertainty, which may influence gold prices [1] - Analysts from Julius Baer Research note that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict has been muted, attributing initial price increases to speculative trading rather than genuine safe-haven demand [3] - The Gold Forecast highlights that while geopolitical risks can drive short-term price spikes, true safe-haven demand may quickly give way to profit-taking and technical selling [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural factors such as ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [2][3] - The interplay between geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy changes, and evolving trade policies will shape the broader economic landscape and influence precious metal prices [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak" [271]. Group 2: Core Views - The conflict between Israel and Iran remains undetermined, which may lead to the US joining the attack on Iran. The crude oil market is in a volatile situation, and the price increase on the 17th was accompanied by a rise in the monthly spread and a strong diesel crack spread. The chemical industry was driven by the rise in crude oil prices on the 18th, but there were also signs of negative feedback as downstream and terminal products did not follow the price increase strongly. The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating pattern with a focus on long - short configurations [2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - On June 18, the SC2508 contract closed at 552.7 yuan/barrel, up 5.3%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at 76.08 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44%. EIA data showed a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but a slight build - up in gasoline and diesel inventories. The refinery utilization rate decreased slightly. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are driving oil price fluctuations. The oil price is expected to oscillate in a high - risk stage [7]. LPG - The cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. Asphalt - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation, asphalt has a geopolitical premium. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, high - sulfur fuel oil has a geopolitical premium. Overall, the supply is expected to increase and the demand to decrease, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its valuation is low. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - On June 18, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The situation in Iran provides short - term support. In 2024, China imported about 8 million tons of methanol from Iran, accounting for 60% of the total imports and about 8% of the total apparent consumption. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. Urea - On June 18, the urea futures price closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. High supply continues, and the agricultural demand has not fully started. The industrial demand is weakening. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the overseas urea price has risen sharply, driving up the domestic price. It is expected that the urea futures price will oscillate strongly [20]. Ethylene Glycol - On June 18, the price of ethylene glycol increased. The inventory is low, and the cost has increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. The upward movement is driven by crude oil, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [15]. PX - On June 18, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 888.4 US dollars/ton. The supply and demand support has weakened, and the short - term trend depends on crude oil. Stimulated by the news of production cuts, it is short - term strong [12]. PTA - On June 18, the PTA spot price was 5205 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to follow crude oil in the short term, and the PTA - crude oil position is mainly compressed [12]. Short - Fiber - The fundamentals of PF are showing marginal improvement signs. The supply pressure has decreased due to production cuts. The processing fee has limited compression space. The export growth rate in 2025 is considerable [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - On June 18, the spot processing fee was compressed to an extremely low value. More production cuts are expected to occur, and it is possible to gradually arrange long positions for the processing fee [18]. PP - On June 18, the PP futures price oscillated strongly. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. Plastic - On June 18, the LLDPE futures price oscillated strongly. It is affected by crude oil prices, and its own fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. Styrene - On June 18, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7950 yuan/ton. The rebound driver is not sustainable, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. PVC - The macro - level conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted PVC, but the fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity releases, off - season demand, and weak export expectations. The dynamic cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [28]. Caustic Soda - In June, the supply and demand of caustic soda were both weak, and it is expected to be weak in July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is based on the production cost. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract [29]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spread - The report provides inter - period spread data for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc., including the latest values and change values [30]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - It presents basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [31]. Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spread data, including the latest values and change values, are given for different combinations of products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [32].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 强势运行 | 地缘因素支撑，原油强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：本周以来，伊朗和以色列冲突持续升级，双方导弹空袭目标转向能源设施，导致能化商 品溢价提升。同时美军双航母舰队开往中东，英法德等国也派遣军力援助以色列，冲突存在进一步 扩大的风险。近期过往霍 ...