2025年06月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：油价大幅上涨，估值重塑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本推升，反套离场 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：重回震荡承压格局 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小涨，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期驱动仍向下，弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：地缘风险仍在，暂时观望避险 | 24 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：反弹趋势延续，近月相对偏弱 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：强势仍在，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短 ...

Group 1: Steel and Coal Industry - Hebei Steel Group's silicon manganese production in June is 11,700 tons, slightly up from 11,600 tons in May [1] - Rebar production decreased to 2.0757 million tons, down by 108,900 tons or 4.98% from the previous week, with inventory levels also declining for the third consecutive week [1] - Average profit per ton of coke across 30 independent coking plants in China is -46 yuan, with regional variations in profitability [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - China's cotton import forecast for the 2024/2025 season has been revised down to 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month due to U.S. tariffs [1] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for June 8-14 is 3.5645 million tons, down from 4.4739 million tons the previous week, while soybean meal exports increased significantly [2] - The USDA reports that U.S. soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 4.34 billion bushels, with ending stocks projected at 295 million bushels [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.6863 million tons, increasing by 59,300 tons or 3.64% week-on-week [3] - The theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method soda ash has decreased by 29.20 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Lead Industry - A major recycled lead smelter in North China has temporarily halted production due to raw material shortages, with plans to increase procurement prices [3] - A primary lead smelting company in East China has postponed its scheduled maintenance from June to August due to satisfactory equipment performance [3]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the hog and corn markets by Caida Futures, dated May 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hog price is expected to remain weakly stable, with supply likely to increase and consumption support insufficient [5] - The corn market may experience a short - term high - level adjustment, with limited upside space and weakening upward momentum [7] Summary by Category Hog Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures contract LH2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous week. The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of May 9, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.72 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.93 yuan/head week - on - week. The pig - grain ratio was 6.44, down 0.15 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The hog spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. After the holiday, the supply of standard hogs from small farmers was limited, and the large - scale farms did not increase their slaughter volume. However, the downstream demand declined. The market supply - demand game continued. The sentiment of resistance to selling at a low price among farmers remained, but the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased, and the consumption support was insufficient. The supply is expected to increase in the future [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures contract C2507 closed at 2,375 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The national average spot price of corn was 2,363.53 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - **Industrial Consumption**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2197 million tons of corn, down 21,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 636,700 tons, up 11,900 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output of corn starch was 325,500 tons. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 41.22%, down 4.12% from the previous week, and the weekly production of DDGS was 83,880 tons, down 9.10% [6] - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.946 million tons, with a decrease of 5.18%. As of May 9, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 4.25 million tons, and the corn inventory in the Guangdong port was 1.53 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The corn spot market was strong. In the Northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level was almost exhausted, and the auction of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had obvious premium. In the North China, the arrival volume of corn at the deep - processing plants was low, and the purchase price increased significantly. The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise, but the high price of raw materials might limit the production enthusiasm. The operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the rising space of corn will be limited by the need to clear warehouses for new wheat [7]

期货热点追踪 千元关口再失守！产业链亏损加剧！玻璃市场在玩"假去库"？ 相关链接 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-12 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-11日沪镍主力合约2507开于121300元/吨，收于121790元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.11%，当日成交量为 89964手，持仓量为76472手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘低开走高后区间振荡，日盘开盘下跌受阻后振荡反弹，收中阴线。成交量较上个交易日略有减 少，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。中美经贸双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意 见。国家统计局6月9日发布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食 品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。菲律宾镍业协会（PNIA）欢迎两院委员会 决定从矿业财政制度法案最终版本中删除原矿出口禁令条款。这是一个审慎且具有前瞻性的举措。菲律宾苏里高 矿区装船效率恢复尚可。6月中国精炼镍预估产量37345吨，环比增加3.75%。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上 个交易日下调约50元/吨，市 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-12 工业硅仓单持续减少，近期盘面向上修复较多 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-11，工业硅期货价格反弹，主力合约2507开于7365元/吨，最后收于7560元/吨，较前一日结算变化（165） 元/吨，变化（2.23）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓147036手，2025-06-11仓单总数为58674手，较前一日变化-578 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。现货价格企稳，近期工业 硅仓单持续减少，目前仓单数量较4月中旬最高点已降低57855吨，前段时间盘面不断回落，使得期现贸易商仓单 与非标货性价比提升，较硅厂出货更加流畅，仓单流出较多，但近几日盘面反弹后，基差收窄，后续仓单注销速 度或明显放缓。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10700-11500（0）元/吨。据SMM统计，5月国内有机硅产量环比4月上升 6.48%，开工率增至62.37% ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-12 工业需求下降，工厂库存上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-11，尿素主力收盘1667元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：83 元/吨（+1）；河南基差：83元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-10），出口利润608 元/吨（+2）。 供应端：截至2025-06-11，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.71 万吨（+14.17），港口样 本库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-11，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.71日（+0.24）。 尿素工业需求下降，虽然目前处于传统农业需求旺季，但下游需求不温不火，农需推进不及预期，工业复合肥及 板材行业开工下降，市场情绪偏弱，工厂库存继续上涨。尿素出口法检相关信息明确后，出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report Currently, downstream consumption is declining due to holiday effects, and the short - term operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still highly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the strong performance of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for copper, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On June 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,150 yuan/ton and closed at 79,290 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,740 yuan/ton and closed at 78,570 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation Near the delivery date, the monthly spread did not improve significantly. Sellers quoted prices above par and were reluctant to sell at a discount. The price difference between brands of flat - water copper converged. The procurement and sales sentiment improved. In the latter half of the week, the supply of flat - water copper was not expected to be loose. Downstream buyers pressured prices due to high copper prices, while sellers were reluctant to sell below par. Some Russian copper was expected to arrive at the end of the week, and downstream buyers were likely to purchase at low prices [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: US May CPI data were all lower than expected, with core CPI only rising 0.1%. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US military bases in the region if the nuclear negotiations failed. The possibility of the sixth - round Iran - US nuclear negotiations over the weekend was decreasing. The EU hoped to extend the trade negotiation time, and the Trump administration was willing to extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if there was "sincerity" in the negotiations [3] - **Mine End**: An American mining project in Nevada attracted the attention of the US Export - Import Bank, which intended to provide $896 million to support a company in building a copper - molybdenum mine. In April 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons; Escondida's copper production increased by 31% year - on - year to 128,400 tons; Collahuasi's copper production decreased by 13.5% year - on - year to 36,600 tons [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In May, LME's Russian copper inventory decreased by 27,350 tons, including 14,800 tons of "Class 2" Russian copper. The overall LME copper market inventory dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years [5] - **Consumption**: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, 1.03 percentage points lower than the previous week and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The copper cable industry's operating rate was 76.08%, down 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. Some enterprises' new orders decreased by about 10% month - on - month. From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 119,450 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, it is the off - season for consumption, leading to poor downstream enterprise operations. Some smelting enterprises are resuming production, and it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.55 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead price in different regions also remained stable, and the lead scrap price was unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,850 yuan/ton, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 21,724 lots, a decrease of 14,490 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,989 lots, an increase of 21 lots. The night - session closing price was 16,855 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase [1] Spot Market Transaction - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged. In Henan, the transaction was light; in Hunan, some enterprises raised their quotes due to inventory decline and showed a reluctance to sell. The spot market transactions showed significant differences, with some demand shifting to the primary lead market, and downstream enterprises preferred to pick up goods directly from smelters [2] Inventory - On June 11, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,525 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Put it on hold [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [5] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [5] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread [5] Core Viewpoints - The price of electrolytic aluminum is difficult to fall due to low social inventory and no obvious inventory accumulation trend, but the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and factors such as social inventory changes, Sino-US negotiations, and overseas squeezing risks should be monitored [4] - The alumina spot price has declined, the basis has narrowed, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is expected to be stable, with an overall supply surplus expectation [4] - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price is firm [4] Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On June 11, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was -80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Futures - On June 11, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,005 yuan/ton, closed at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 198,643 lots, an increase of 49,434 lots, and an open interest of 194,628 lots, an increase of 10,323 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons [2] - As of June 11, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 357,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot - On June 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,270 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On June 11, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,887 yuan/ton, closed at 2,895 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 327,631 lots, a decrease of 26,554 lots, and an open interest of 293,094 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - The price of scrap aluminum was stable at 19,400 yuan/ton, and the AD2511 - AL2511 contract spread was -535 yuan/ton [4] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply side: Rio Tinto's Tomago faces a shutdown crisis due to energy prices [4] - Demand side: Consumption remains strong, LME and domestic spot premiums are rising, apparent consumption growth rate is still positive year-on-year, and inventory is expected to decline slightly in June [4] - Risk factors: Concerns about the sustainability of consumption, the approaching traditional domestic consumption off - season, and potential marginal decline in overseas demand [4] Alumina - Supply side: Good industry profits, increased resumption of production enthusiasm, signs of bottoming out and recovery in production and inventory [4] - Cost side: Disturbance in Guinea's ore supply, short - term support for ore prices, but limited price increase space, and no expected alumina production cut due to ore shortage [4] Aluminum Alloy - Supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and prices are firm [4]