Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Standard allocation [36] - European stocks - Overweight [37] - Chinese A - shares - Standard allocation [39] - Hong Kong stocks - Standard allocation [40][42] - Japan - Standard allocation [43] - Indian market - Standard allocation [44] Report's Core View - In April, the global capital market was mainly influenced by Trump's tariff policy. Global stock markets, bond markets, foreign exchange markets, and commodity markets all showed significant fluctuations. Different regions and asset classes had different performances and outlooks due to factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade negotiations [34][60][66][69] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in April Stock Markets - Most major global stock markets showed fluctuations in April. The German stock market outperformed other EU markets, while Hong Kong stocks performed poorly. US stocks were volatile, and European stocks first declined and then rebounded [34][35] Bond Markets - In April, the US bond market was volatile, the European bond market rose, and the Chinese bond market continued the "bond bull" market. Different bond indices had different performance trends [60] Foreign Exchange Markets - The US dollar index declined in April, the euro strengthened against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was weak [66] Commodity Markets - Gold prices reached a record - high in April and then declined, oil prices dropped significantly, and copper prices first rose and then fell [69] 2. Macroeconomic Review US Macroeconomy - In April, the number of new non - farm payrolls in the US exceeded expectations, but the average hourly wage increase was lower than expected. In March, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. Retail sales in March increased significantly, and the service industry PMI showed mixed performance [8][10][14][16] Chinese Macroeconomy - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, CPI decreased slightly, PPI decline slowed down, consumption increased, and imports and exports, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all had different performance trends [20][23] 3. Central Bank Policies - In April, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate target, the Bank of Canada paused interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank cut key interest rates [29] 4. Stock Market Views US Stocks - In April, US stocks fluctuated sharply. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to standard allocation include Trump's softened attitude, strong economic data, and the possibility of repeated trade negotiations [36] European Stocks - European stocks first declined and then rebounded in April. The reasons for the upgrade from standard allocation to overweight include reduced tariff uncertainty, increased European fiscal spending, eased Russia - Ukraine situation, and valuation discounts [37][38] Chinese A - shares - Chinese A - shares first declined and then repaired in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of trade agreement implementation, mixed economic data, conservative policies, and reasonable valuations [39] Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks declined in early April and rebounded in the second half of the month. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of implementing the Sino - US trade agreement and the support of capital inflows [42] Japanese Stocks - Japanese stocks first declined and then rose in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the progress of trade negotiations, the cautious policy of the Bank of Japan, and the existence of arbitrage space [43] Indian Market - The Indian market performed strongly in April. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to overweight include the high possibility of reaching an agreement with the US, interest rate cuts by the Indian central bank, and the potential to undertake manufacturing transfer [44] 5. Overseas Debt Market Primary Market - In April, the primary market of Chinese overseas debt issued about $119.35 billion, with a net increase of about - $93.42 billion. The Chinese Ministry of Finance successfully issued RMB green sovereign bonds in London [50] Secondary Market - As of April 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index and high - yield bond index both rose slightly [53] 6. Selected Funds - The report selects funds based on different asset classes and geographical locations, using criteria such as historical performance, expense ratio, and risk for different types of funds [73][74][75]

"美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，暂停实施24%的'对等关税'！"5月12日下午，瑞士日内瓦传来中美经 贸高层谈判的最新消息，让国内焦急等待的外贸人们为之沸腾，纷纷测算起最新关税税率。 "简直要欢呼起来了，这真是天大的好消息！"义乌外贸公司老板宋英坤难得轻松地笑了。他公司的业务 高度聚焦美国市场，对美出口占公司总销售额的90%，主营服装轻纺类个人消费品，在这场关税战中受 到不小的影响。"现在的结果，对我们双方经营者都将会是重大利好。"他说。 这场贸易战，给他敲响了警钟。他意识到，公司出口国家与供应链渠道高度单一，过度依赖美国市场， 使得公司在贸易战冲击下面临风险。痛定思痛，宋英坤决心做出改变。在销售市场布局上，准备全力加 快拓展非美国市场，积极开展营销活动，试图在全球版图上开辟新的"战场"；在供应链建设方面，他准 备逐步将部分订单转移至东南亚国家，以此构建更具韧性、更加安全的供应链体系。 邓泽的外贸业务同样深受关税飙升之苦，一时间，百万美金量级的订单全部搁置，客户要求他寻求中国 以外的生产途径。 这段时间，邓泽团队同样时刻关注着谈判动态，不放过任何蛛丝马迹。"订单能否顺利恢复，还要看后 续美国客户的选择。他们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has recovered about half of its losses since February, driven by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite concerns that the U.S. stock market has not fully escaped its challenges [1][5]. Market Breadth Indicators - The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has outperformed the market-cap weighted index for six consecutive trading days, indicating increased investor confidence across various companies [1]. - All sectors of the S&P 500 have seen gains since the suspension of the most severe tariffs by Trump on April 9, with technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the way [1]. - Craig Johnson from Piper Sandler highlights that a broader participation in stock price increases strengthens the market, as it reflects the number of stocks that are performing well [2]. - A market breadth indicator tracked by Johnson is about to trigger a buy signal, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [4]. Investor Sentiment and Economic Factors - Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Michael Wilson, caution that while investor sentiment is improving, it is premature to declare the market out of danger, identifying four necessary factors for a sustained rally, of which only two have progressed [5]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy and the current yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds exceeding 4.4% are seen as potential headwinds for market valuations [5]. - Concerns over tariffs have led approximately 30 companies to cancel or suspend their earnings forecasts, particularly in the automotive, durable goods, and industrial sectors, although these stocks have seen an increase in average gains since reporting [7]. Future Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the previous resistance level of 5500 points, and further meaningful gains will depend on the achievement of a U.S.-China trade agreement and a renewed acceleration in earnings revisions [7]. - The next significant technical test for the S&P 500 is at the intersection of the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, around the 5750-5800 point range [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. is actively seeking to adjust tariff measures and has communicated its willingness to engage in talks with China regarding tariffs [1][2] - China has agreed to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin during a visit to Switzerland, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations [1][6] - China emphasizes that any negotiations must respect its core interests and will not accept coercive tactics from the U.S. [2][4] Group 2 - Economic forecasts from institutions like the IMF and World Bank predict that the U.S. will be one of the hardest-hit economies due to the trade war, with potential recession looming [4] - The upcoming talks are described as exploratory, with China cautioning against falling into a "negotiation delay trap" set by the U.S. [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's decision to not lower interest rates complicates the economic landscape, as it faces challenges from both inflation and the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]

Group 1 - Jeff Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce, a 20% increase from last week's price of approximately $3,345 [1] - Gold has increased by 25% this year, reflecting a shift in traders' perceptions due to market volatility related to tariffs and geopolitical concerns [1] - The World Gold Council reports that the global market size for physically-backed gold ETFs increased by $11 billion in April, reaching $397 billion [1] Group 2 - Gundlach expresses a challenging outlook for other risk assets, predicting a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500 index, which could drop to 4,500 points [2] - The market is currently in a risk-off state, with other analysts also optimistic about gold due to uncertainties stemming from trade policies [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy [3]

Group 1 - In April, Japanese pension funds significantly increased their investments in foreign stocks, with net purchases totaling 2.76 trillion yen (approximately 189 billion USD) [1] - Japanese investors have been net buyers of foreign stocks for six consecutive weeks, with a notable net investment of 133.8 billion yen (approximately 9.21 billion USD) in the last week of April [1] - This buying trend occurred amidst global market turmoil due to trade war concerns, with the MSCI global stock index dropping over 7% in the first week of April [1] Group 2 - Japanese investors had already begun to heavily invest in U.S. stocks prior to this buying spree, with net purchases reaching 2.12 trillion yen in March, the highest since 2005 [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a 6.1% decline in March, indicating that Japanese investors were positioning themselves to take advantage of market downturns [1] - Pictet Asset Management Japan Ltd. noted that the stock market's temporary drop and yen appreciation led many investors to view this as a buying opportunity, although there are concerns about potential pressure on the Japanese stock market if this trend continues [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. It offers market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: International gold prices rose 0.57% last Friday. Multiple factors influenced the market, and with the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to hold long gold positions. The gold - silver ratio remained above 100, and it is advised to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] - **Silver**: After the holiday, the pattern of strong gold and weak silver remained. With the gold - silver ratio above 100, it is recommended to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated on Friday, and the US copper strengthened before the morning session. The short - term market risk appetite was boosted by the Sino - US negotiation, leading to stronger copper prices. The tight supply of copper ore continued [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.54% on Friday. The supply side maintained high - load production, and the demand side saw a slight increase in the start - up rate. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.06% on Friday. The supply side had reduced production due to maintenance, while the demand side had an increase in operating capacity. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell on Friday. The supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it is recommended to wait and see as the downward driving force is limited [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell 4.46% week - on - week. The supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed in May, and it is recommended to hold short positions or wait and see [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May, and long positions can be held due to the issue of the number of registered warehouse receipts being far less than the positions [3] - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated on Friday. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and it is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short - term [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract of rebar was weakly oscillating. The supply - demand of steel was seasonally deteriorating, but the contradiction was not significant. It is expected that the steel futures price will oscillate widely, and it is recommended to hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore was horizontally oscillating. The supply - demand was neutral to strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. It is recommended to try short positions on the 2509 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract of coking coal was weakly oscillating. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday. The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and the sowing in the US was accelerating in the long - term. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic soybeans are short - term bearish and medium - term follow the international market [6] - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn was narrowly oscillating. The supply - demand was tightening, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to be bullish [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar both rose. The raw sugar's later trend will be affected by Brazil's crushing progress and sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestic sugar is short - term bullish and long - term bearish [7] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was flat, and the Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [7] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply was seasonally increasing, and the demand was improving. It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and policies [7] - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs was narrowly oscillating. The supply was high and the demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs was narrowly oscillating. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to decline resistantly. Attention should be paid to the enterprises' slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [7] - **Apples**: The main contract of apples fell last week. The new - season production is worried due to extreme weather, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating and long - term bearish [9] - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to hedge after the premium is restored [9] - **PTA**: The PTA market has short - term supply pressure relief but long - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and look for short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [9] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see with the improvement of the macro - atmosphere [9][10] - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to hedge [10] - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating [10] - **MEG**: The MEG market is in a de - stocking pattern in May, and it is recommended to operate within a range [10] - **Crude Oil**: The short - term price is supported by seasonal demand, but the long - term supply surplus is significant. It is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene fell slightly on Friday. The supply and demand are expected to weaken slightly in the later period. It is short - term oscillating, and the upward movement is restricted by the import window [11] - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash fell. The supply has a reduction expectation but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [11] Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The US is negotiating tariffs with China. The supply of the US line overflows, and the European line freight is under pressure. The overall freight rate expectation is pessimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light long position in the 8 - 10 period [12]

（2）国际大豆：市场交易重心转移至北美播种季，巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：关注节后巴西大豆清关情况，当前现货偏紧，随着到港大豆集中， 油厂开机恢复，现货偏紧的情况逐步缓解。节后下游开启补库阶段，短期或将提振豆粕成 交。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡运行。 1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8080 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（20）、天津 3160 元/吨（-140）、 日照 3110 元/吨（10）、东莞 3100 元/吨（-40）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行，关注会谈内容。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2194 元/吨；华北黄淮重 点企业新玉米主流收 ...

不确定性中欧元坚挺 机构认为欧元将长期走高 金十数据5月12日讯，Amundi资管全球外汇主管Andreas Koenig表示，尽管围绕贸易战的不确定性仍在 继续，欧元在4月动荡的几周内启动的力量不可能轻易消除。Koenig认为，"（欧元升值）是一种结构性 变化，可能比我们目前想象的要持续得更长、更远。"荷兰合作银行外汇策略主管Jane Foley表示："关 税已经推高了美国商品的价格，而欧元走强将使它们变得更加昂贵。欧元的另一次突然飙升可能会令人 不安。"就目前而言，许多人都看好欧元。德意志银行今年1月还在预测欧元兑美元今年将跌破平价，但 现在预计欧美将在12月前升至1.20，到2027年底进一步攀升至1.30。 ...