Group 1: Political Pressure on Monetary Policy - Former President Donald Trump publicly called for an immediate 300 basis point interest rate cut, arguing that each 1% increase costs the U.S. an additional $360 billion annually in interest payments, suggesting a potential savings of over a trillion dollars with a 3% cut [2][4] - Trump's sudden shift in tone regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating he is "unlikely" to fire him, reflects pressure from Republican lawmakers warning that such an action could lead to a market crash [4] - Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that the process for selecting the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, hinting at potential changes in leadership that could impact market stability [4][6] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4][6] - The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President, known for her hawkish stance, emphasized the need to maintain a 4.25% interest rate for 6 to 12 months to avoid repeating the stagflation of the 1970s [6] - A survey indicated that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers, further complicating the inflation landscape [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Technology Sector - Despite a nearly 1% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nvidia's stock surged by 4%, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion, highlighting the contrasting performance within the tech sector [7] - The semiconductor supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with TSMC reporting a 61% increase in net profit for Q2 and projecting a 30% growth in annual sales [7] - The ongoing trade tensions, including a 30% tariff on Mexico, have heightened market volatility and influenced investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold [7][8] Group 4: Financial Market Sentiment - Gold prices struggled around $3,330, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped from 65% to 58%, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve actions [8] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the first time since June, prompting traders to reduce long positions [8] - A survey revealed a decrease in the percentage of investors willing to hedge against dollar depreciation, suggesting a growing underestimation of political intervention risks [8][9]

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/23 | 3423. 43 | 39. 31 | 3436. 40 | 39.66 | 790. 30 | 9467.00 | 788. 50 | 9454.00 | | (本表數 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/7/22 | 3384. 46 | 38. 86 | 339 ...

巴克莱日本利率/外汇策略团队三名分析师在研报中指出，美日贸易协定短期内可能对日元构成利好。该团队注意到， 日本央行副行长内田真一在协议公布后表态称，该协定将减少不确定性并加快加息进程。隔夜指数互换市场数据显 示，交易员预计日本央行10月前加息15个基点、12月前加息20个基点，较周二预期的9个基点和15个基点显著提升。分 析师补充称，关税相关不确定性消退与日央行加息时间表提前的双重因素，将在短期内支撑日元走势。 在美日达成协议、美欧接近达成15%关税协议的消息提振下，市场对贸易摩擦的担忧大幅降温，风险情绪被点燃，标 普500、纳指再创新高，小盘股领涨。避险情绪消退下，美债收益率全线上涨，黄金跌破3400美元关口。 周四(7月24日)亚洲时段，现货黄金目前交投于3381一线下方，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3379.88美元/盎司，下跌 0.21%，最高触及3393.09美元/盎司，最低下探3374.55美元/盎司。 由于市场对贸易战担忧情绪降温，全球股市普遍上 涨，打压黄金的避险买需；美联储下周大概率按兵不动，美债收益率反弹，也限制金价走势，日内将可关注欧洲央行 公布利率决议和欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布 ...

政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团欧洲区总经理拉赫曼认为，如果形势恶化，美国对欧盟征收15%的普遍关税 税率，再加上对某些行业的征税，欧洲将会采取报复措施。美欧贸易谈判进入倒计时，未来贸易格局将 如何演变，备受全球关注。（文馨） 在美欧谈判的关键时刻，22日下午，白宫发布联合声明表示，美国和印尼已就一项贸易协定框架达成一 致，印尼将对美国工业和科技产品以及农产品开放市场，取消99%的关税壁垒。美国能以零关税向印尼 出售美国制造的产品，而印尼出口到美国的所有产品则需缴纳19%的关税。双方还承诺在未来几周继 续"谈判并最终敲定这份互惠贸易协定"，印尼还承诺购买价值150亿美元的美国能源、价值45亿美元的 美国农产品以及50架波音飞机。 除了关税问题，美国总统还威胁欧洲处方药提价。美国正在努力争取让其他国家稍微提高药品价格，并 让制药公司接受。如果不这样做，制药公司就将面临很多问题。美国总统以减肥处方药司美格鲁肽为 例，指出同样的药在欧洲价格远低于美国。欧盟并不愿付出过高代价，德国财长克林贝尔明确表示，绝 不能以任何代价达成协议。 面对可能恶化的贸易局势，欧盟已制定多轮反制方案，并将具体实施时间与特朗普政府设定的8月1日最 ...

澳洲联储主席布洛克：出现严重负面"贸易战"的可能性似乎已经降低。 ...

Group 1: Report's Core Views - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis is neutral with the spot price at 79,875 and a basis of 285, showing a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories present a neutral situation. On July 23, the copper inventory decreased by 25 to 124,825 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards, and the net position of the main players is long and increasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logic of recent market movements is influenced by domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - China's copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Group 2: China's Annual Copper Supply - Demand Balance Table | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 873 | 372 | 28 | 1217 | 1207 | 1 | | 2019 | 894 | 348 | 35 | 1207 | 1205 | | | 2020 | 930 | 452 | 21 | 1361 | 1291 | 70 | | 2021 | 998 | 344 | 27 | 1315 | 1361 | - 46 | | 2022 | 1028 | 367 | 23 | 1372 | 1380 | - 8 | | 2023 | 1144 | 351 | 28 | 1467 | 1477 | - 10 | | 2024 | 1206 | 373 | 46 | 1534 | 1523 | 11 | [22]

Group 1 - Global stock markets surged on July 23 due to the US-Japan trade agreement, leading to a decline in market risk aversion and a shift from bonds to stocks [1] - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 3.88%, the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.4%, and the 30-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.95% [1] - The focus is now on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 29-30, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged despite political pressure for cuts [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further as the US economy withstands the global trade war, although unpredictable trade policies and attacks on the Fed's independence could trigger market declines [4] - European stock markets rose on hopes of a trade agreement, with bond yields increasing across the board, including a 6.7 basis point rise in the 10-year German bond yield to 2.666% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.355% and the 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.332% [4] Group 3 - Japanese bond yields increased overall, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 1.6010%, the highest since October 2008, before closing at 1.594% [8] - The US Treasury plans to issue $201 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds, amid expectations of significant short-term debt issuance [8][9] - The actual net financing needs of the US Treasury in Q2 reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion, indicating a strong demand for short-term bonds [9]

Group 1 - Financial markets experienced significant volatility on July 16, 2025, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5.01%, indicating a market bet on "long-term high interest rates" [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange saw a sharp decline in the probability of interest rate cuts, dropping from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two cuts within the year plummeted from 93% to 76% [3] - Gold prices struggled below $3,335, with significant trading activity indicating heightened market risk aversion [3] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly Nvidia, thrived amid market turmoil, with Nvidia's stock surging 4% after the announcement of AI chip exports to China, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments about the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair added to market uncertainty, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to exceed 5% [4][6] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve were highlighted, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policy, indicating a lack of consensus on future actions [6] Group 3 - Trump's inquiry about potentially firing Fed Chair Powell led to a market collapse, with gold prices rising by $20 and the dollar index falling by 25 points, reflecting heightened market anxiety [8] - Inflation data released showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in June CPI, with core CPI rising 2.9%, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [9] - The market is bracing for further inflationary pressures, with predictions of core PCE inflation reaching 3.2% in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about the economic outlook [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced the third round of trade talks between the U.S. and China to be held on July 28-29 in Stockholm, indicating a proactive approach from the U.S. ahead of the August 12 tariff truce expiration [1][3] - The U.S. is under pressure as the trade war has not reversed the trade deficit, which is projected to reach $918.4 billion in 2024, the second highest in nearly 60 years [3][5] - The U.S. is seeking to leverage the upcoming talks to mitigate potential market panic from the August 1 deadline for trade agreements with multiple countries [5][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is showing a shift in its approach to China, with recent statements from President Trump acknowledging China's cooperation, contrasting with earlier aggressive tariff increases [1][3] - China's economic resilience is highlighted by a recovery in trade figures, with exports to the U.S. rebounding to over 3500 billion yuan in June, indicating strong performance despite U.S. tariffs [5][7] - The U.S. hopes to pressure China into increasing energy imports from the U.S. while reducing purchases from Iran and Russia, aiming to address trade imbalances [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. is experiencing domestic political and economic pressures, with farmers and businesses expressing dissatisfaction with tariff policies, influencing the government's willingness to negotiate [11][13] - The depth of economic interdependence between the U.S. and China remains significant, with China accounting for 14.7% of U.S. exports and 6.3% of imports, suggesting that complete decoupling is unlikely [11][13] - The Chinese government maintains a firm stance on trade negotiations, emphasizing the need for equal and mutually beneficial discussions, particularly in the context of technology and trade restrictions [13]

今日摘要 习近平总书记指出："制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保持制造业合理比重。现 代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子"。今年上半年，我国制造业 核心技术持续突破，传统产业加速焕新，新产业蓬勃成长。 中共中央、国务院、中央军委决定给蔡旭哲颁发"二级航天功勋奖章"，授予宋令东、王浩泽"英雄航天 员"荣誉称号并颁发"三级航天功勋奖章"。 法国称，与美国贸易谈判未见成效，欧方须展现更强硬立场。 内容速览 【新思想引领新征程】中国制造向新而行 不断筑牢强国之基 习近平总书记指出，"制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保持制造业合理比重。现 代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子"。 今年上半年，我国制造业核心技术持续突破，传统产业加速焕新，新产业新业态蓬勃成长，带动经济增 长的引擎作用更加强劲。 经党中央批准，海南自由贸易港定于2025年12月18日正式启动封关。 国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，公安部介绍以高水平安全护航"十四五"规划高质量完成有关情况。 上半年，全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区1.65万个。 各地积极应对强降雨天气，打好防 ...