Core Viewpoint - Pakistan has awarded the development rights of the Reko Diq copper-gold mine to Barrick Gold of Canada, raising questions about its preference for Western partnerships over Chinese companies amid China's urgent need for copper resources [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Bilateral Relations - Since establishing diplomatic relations in 1951, China and Pakistan have maintained a strong friendship, with China providing support in various sectors including aerospace, healthcare, and energy [3]. - China has also offered significant military assistance to Pakistan, enhancing its defense capabilities against threats from India [3]. Group 2: Economic Considerations - Pakistan possesses abundant natural resources, including coal, oil, and copper, but has faced challenges in resource development due to technical limitations and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - Canada has committed to investing $7 billion, along with an additional $1 billion for railway construction connecting the mine to Gwadar Port, which helps alleviate Pakistan's cash flow crisis and positions its copper production among the top five globally [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Pakistan's ties with Canada are strengthened by shared language and legal systems as both are part of the Commonwealth, and their relationship with the West has been improving [5]. - The collaboration with Canada allows Pakistan to access European markets for its resources, a goal that is currently difficult for China to achieve [5]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Pakistan maintains a neutral stance in great power competition, balancing support from China while also engaging with Western partners to mitigate sanctions pressure [7]. - The decision to partner with Canada reflects Pakistan's focus on immediate economic benefits, risk diversification, and the need to repair international relations, emphasizing that national interests remain paramount in international friendships [7].

G20财长和央行行长公报：全球挑战包括地缘政治和贸易紧张局势，G20致力于国际政策合作。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. economic data has put short-term pressure on gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and tariff risks continue to provide support for the gold market [1][2][4]. Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer spending [2]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, suggesting a stable labor market that supports consumer spending [2]. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for maintaining restrictive policies to curb inflation, while others support rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 54%, with a 30% chance for action in July [3]. Trade Risks and Market Reactions - The Trump administration is in urgent negotiations with Japan regarding a 25% tariff, with a deadline of August 1 for an agreement [4]. - A significant increase of 44% in Swiss gold exports in June indicates that some institutions are still accumulating physical gold as a hedge against potential policy and market risks [4]. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for the second half of the year will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actual implementation of Trump's trade policies [4][5]. - Technically, gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, and potential resistance levels at $3,350 and $3,380 per ounce [5].

短短几天，叙利亚南部的苏韦达省从一场部落间的抢劫报复，演变成席卷全省的血腥冲突。德鲁兹人与贝都因人的枪声尚未停歇，叙利亚新政府的安全部 队却调转枪口，与贝都因民兵联手，将屠刀挥向德鲁兹社区。社交媒体上流传的血腥画面，控诉着这场发生在眼皮底下的悲剧。 就在国际社会几近沉默，对西方支持的叙利亚新政府屠杀行为袖手旁观之际，一个意想不到的角色出手了——以色列战机呼啸而至，空袭大马士革军事目 标，意图切断叙政府军增援苏韦达的通道。这个在加沙被描绘成"恶魔"的国家，此刻竟成了德鲁兹人眼中唯一的"保护者"。 为何叙利亚政府要对自己宣称要保护的少数族群痛下杀手？为何以色列会罕见地为保护邻国少数派而跨境干预？这戏剧性的一幕，瞬间牵动了中东地缘政 治最敏感的神经，更将以色列推上了一个充满讽刺与悖论的"道德高地"。 争夺再起 2025年7月11日，一位德鲁兹商人在经过叙利亚苏韦达省的一个检查站附近时遭到贝都因部落人员的袭击和抢劫。作为报复，德鲁兹武装人员"扣留"了数 名贝都因部落人员。随后，双方冲突升级，并从苏韦达省东部穆卡瓦斯地区蔓延至苏韦达省西部和北部地区，导致激烈交火，造成大量人员伤亡。 以朱拉尼为代表的叙利亚新政府迅速宣布 ...

而在福赛斯的书中，向维森塔尔透露这些秘情的人，是一个不可靠的证人，他也有自己的利益诉求：想要攫取纳 粹党徒存在瑞士银行里的大笔财富。福赛斯看到那篇虚虚实实的报道，从中了解到维森塔尔和他的虚虚实实的行 动理由后，十分坚定地编成了一个确凿的故事，他给"敖德萨"组织加上了一个政治目标：推翻新生不久的犹太国 家以色列，并且让彼得·米勒入手调查后，很快遭到追杀。 福赛斯写得很快。《豺狼的日子》只写了35天就完成了，一炮而红之后，出版商敦促着福赛斯趁热打铁。那个年 头的出版业正是一台兴旺运转的机器，福赛斯这样眼疾手快、脑筋灵活的作者，不成名都说不过去。他在新闻方 面的直觉，以及叙述故事的能力，在《敖德萨档案》里表现得淋漓尽致。他把故事的开端设定在了肯尼迪遇刺之 后，有点距离感，但又很真实，那些悬疑的片段细致入微，而且极为专业。比如说，米勒躲过了一次汽车炸弹暗 杀，原因是他驾驶的那辆捷豹XK150的悬挂系统很紧，刚好卡住了炸弹，使它失效。福赛斯写来，就好像他真的 把炸药安装在那个型号的车上，确认它的确不会爆炸一样。 《豺狼的日子》 小说体现了福赛斯的全知全能，他懂情报工作，懂媒体，懂政治格局的"前世今生"，懂军事国防，懂航 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the emergence and significance of stablecoins in the global financial landscape, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts and the competition between major powers like the US and China [2][4][65] - Stablecoins are defined as cryptocurrencies that are pegged to fiat currencies or assets, combining the convenience of digital assets with the stability of traditional currencies, with a market size that has grown from under $100 million in 2014 to over $250 billion today [24][25] - The article highlights the role of stablecoins in facilitating rapid global transactions without traditional banking systems, significantly enhancing payment efficiency and reducing cross-border costs [25][26] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the decline of traditional power dynamics and the rise of new economic strategies, particularly in the context of the US-China rivalry [5][18][48] - The article discusses how the US and China are both integrating stablecoins into their national financial strategies, with implications for global monetary systems and the distribution of financial power [28][65] - The potential of stablecoins to disrupt the existing dollar-centric financial system is emphasized, as they offer alternatives to traditional payment systems like SWIFT, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions [36][37][66] Group 3 - The article outlines three core attributes of money that stablecoins aim to fulfill: price stability, a medium for global payments, and a transitional role towards central bank digital currencies [29][30] - It also discusses the historical context of currency evolution and how stablecoins represent a new chapter in the ongoing struggle for monetary authority and influence [58][60][62] - The narrative suggests that the competition for stablecoin dominance is not just about financial transactions but also about redefining global economic power structures [65][66]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's fundamentals are at odds with market sentiment, but its valuation is at a historical low, indicating significant investment value. The current stock is considered a buy from a direct equity investment perspective [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - ASML's stock price rebounded over 40% from its low, but fell 9% on the day of the Q2 2025 earnings announcement despite exceeding expectations in sales, net profit, and net bookings [5]. - The decline was attributed to the CEO's cautious outlook on 2026 growth due to rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, despite strong fundamentals in the AI customer base [5]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was €7.7 billion, with a net income margin of 29.8% and earnings per share of €5.90 [9]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - ASML holds a unique position in a high-growth market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 9% over the next few years [7]. - The revenue structure includes EUV and DUV lithography machines, accounting for 48% and 43% of total revenue, respectively, with EUV being a unique offering that provides significant pricing power [7]. - The company has demonstrated a robust ability to convert revenue into profit, with a gross margin of 53.7% and an operating margin of 34.6% [9]. Group 3: Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - ASML's balance sheet is healthy, with net cash reserves of $6.3 billion and a current dividend yield of 1.3%, indicating substantial room for dividend growth [10]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with a buyback of €1.4 billion in the latest quarter, contributing to earnings per share growth [11]. - R&D spending reached €1.2 billion in the latest quarter, representing 15.6% of sales, ensuring the maintenance of its technological leadership [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - ASML's current trailing P/E ratio is approximately 27, which is at a historical low, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [12]. - The expected annual revenue growth rate from 2025 to 2030 is projected to be between 7% and 13%, with earnings per share growth potentially reaching 11% to 22% [14]. - Scenario analysis indicates that if earnings per share reach $60.13 by 2030, the stock price could rise to $1,683, yielding a compound annual return of nearly 18% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market shows that the spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, with some shipping companies slightly reducing the freight rate in late July. The EC market generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August. The dry - bulk shipping market has ended its three - week decline, with the freight rates of large - sized ships expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The oil tanker transportation market's freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs further attention [4][24][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The spot freight rate is reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced the freight rate in late July. The EC market is volatile. On July 14, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week. The SCFI European line on July 11 was 2099 dollars/TEU, down 0.1% week - on - week. Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1 [4]. - In June, China's exports to the US were 381.7 billion dollars, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant month - on - month improvement. Exports to ASEAN were 581.9 billion dollars, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were 492.2 billion dollars, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. Logic Analysis - Spot freight rates vary among shipping companies. The OA alliance's freight rates remain high. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but tariff policies may affect the shipping rhythm. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively. July is a period of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1, and additional tariffs may impact China's exports and re - export trade [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile, pay attention to tariff and geopolitical dynamics [9]. - Arbitrage: Roll - over operation of the 10 - 12 spread [10]. Industry News - The White House economic advisor said Trump received trade agreement proposals and may impose additional tariffs if not improved. The EU extended the suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs to early August. Trump announced additional tariffs on Mexico, the EU, etc. The US and India are negotiating a trade agreement to reduce India's tariffs to below 20%. There are developments in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [11][13][14]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize ship freight index rose 440 points or about 26.4% to 2104 points, with the daily average profit increasing by 3654 dollars to 17453 dollars. The Panamax ship freight index rose 137 points or 8% to 1860 points, with the daily average profit rising by 1236 dollars to 16743 dollars. The Supramax ship freight index rose 37 points or 3.1% to 1219 points [20]. - The spot freight rates of Capesize ships' iron ore routes increased. The weekly freight rates of coal and bauxite routes of Capesize ships and coal and grain routes of Panamax ships also increased. From July 7 - 13, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2987.1 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments increasing [22][23]. Logic Analysis - The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The Capesize ship market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased shipping inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax ship market's freight rates continued to rise due to strong coal and grain transportation demand and tight shipping capacity. The freight rates of large - sized ships are expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [24]. Industry News - Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, Brazil, and the EU starting from August 1. Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships. The coal export volume of Newcastle Port in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 Chinese ports decreased [25][26]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs attention [28]. Industry News - Trump's dissatisfaction with Putin may lead to more sanctions on Russia, affecting oil prices. The domestic refined oil retail price may be reduced. OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, and the demand in the third quarter is expected to be strong [30].

当地时间7月16日晚，以色列国防军对叙利亚首都大马士革发动大规模空袭，目标直指叙利亚国防部大楼、总统府附近军事设施及总参谋部入口，造成至少3 人死亡、34人受伤。此次行动是以色列自7月14日介入叙利亚南部苏韦达省冲突以来的最大规模军事升级，直接触发联合国安理会紧急会议。安理会将于北 京时间17日18时召开闭门磋商，讨论叙利亚提出的"谴责以色列侵犯主权"议题。 一、军事升级：以色列"先发制人"背后的战略博弈 值得关注的是，美国在安理会会议前的表态出现微妙变化。白宫国家安全顾问沙利文17日凌晨表示，美国"支持安理会对局势进行全面评估"，但拒绝承诺支 持叙利亚提出的制裁议案。这种立场与以色列的紧密盟友关系形成鲜明对比，凸显美国在平衡中东盟友与国际规则间的困境。 三、黄金市场：避险情绪与政策预期的拉锯战 地缘危机升级直接冲击黄金市场。截至7月17日亚洲早盘，现货黄金报3330.53美元/盎司，较前一日高点回落近50美元，但仍较本周低点上涨1.2%。这种波 动反映出市场对地缘风险与美联储政策的双重考量： 短期避险需求支撑金价：以色列空袭叠加特朗普同日宣布对150个中小国家加征关税，引发全球贸易与安全风险共振。德意志银行 ...