Core Viewpoint - Anna Paulson, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, publicly supports Jerome Powell's leadership amid ongoing political pressure and controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Support for Powell - Paulson emphasizes the importance of strong leadership at the Federal Reserve, stating that it benefits the American public [5]. - She aligns with other Federal Reserve officials who have also endorsed Powell's integrity and leadership [5]. - Powell is currently facing a criminal investigation related to a renovation project at the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters, which Paulson supports him on [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Paulson indicates a cautious but clear stance on monetary policy, supporting recent interest rate cuts while suggesting that further cuts are not urgent [6]. - She believes the current interest rate level is "sufficiently high" and slightly above the neutral rate, which does not stimulate or suppress economic growth [6]. - Paulson anticipates significant progress in reducing inflation towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target by the end of the year, but is open to supporting small rate cuts later if inflation data continues to show easing [6][7]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Paulson expresses concern about the risks in the labor market, noting that 95% of private sector job growth last year was concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, which is not indicative of a healthy economy [8]. - She warns that signs of a rapid deterioration in the labor market would be closely monitored, as historical trends suggest labor market signals often dominate economic indicators [8]. - Paulson observes that companies are now more cautious in their pricing strategies, focusing on maintaining market share rather than aggressively raising prices [8].

为了提供更全面的预测，Omdia指出了一些可能抑制2026年经济增长的宏观经济风险因素。尽管 中国和欧元区的通胀基本得到控制，但美国的通胀问题依然令人担忧。预计今年的其他挑战包括劳 计算与数据存储领域将引领半导体营收增长，预计到2026年将同比增长41.4%，超过5000亿美 元。这主要得益于数据中心服务器和其他内存密集型应用的高需求，以及内存芯片价格的上涨。笔 记本电脑的增长则得益于人工智能技术的普及和企业的大规模更新换代。预计今年全球四大超大规 模数据中心运营商的资本支出总额将达到约5000亿美元，并且预计未来还将继续增长。资本支出 正重新分配至人工智能基础设施、模型开发和新兴应用领域，凸显了人工智能对各行业的变革性影 响。 2026年，消费电子和无线应用领域也将为半导体营收增长带来强劲前景。推动增长的因素包括存 储器价格上涨、新一代折叠屏智能手机的发布以及互联消费设备的复苏。苹果、三星和其他厂商在 人工智能摄影方面的升级以及旗舰智能手机的更新换代也将进一步促进增长。可穿戴设备、智能音 箱和虚拟现实（VR）头显预计也将实现显著的营收增长。 Omdia高级首席分析师Myson Robles-Bruce表示： ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 沪铜市场周报 淡季影响需求谨慎，沪铜或将有所承压 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.63%，振幅5.51%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价100770元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国CPI增速在12月保持稳定，核心CPI略低于预期。特朗普称赞通胀数据，称鲍威尔应该大幅降息。 美联储传声筒：12月CPI不太可能改变当前的观望态度。国内方面，工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、 有色、新材料、汽车、机械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的12家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积极参与行业规则 制定和自律机制建设，自觉抵制"内卷"。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续下探，矿紧对铜价的成本支撑力度仍在。 供给端，受制于原料供给紧张，25年底产量仅小幅增加，往后看26年初产量亦大体持稳，国内供给量维持相对充足状态。 需求端，淡季影响 ...

Group 1: USD Dynamics - The core variable for the USD remains the Federal Reserve, with recent discussions indicating heightened congressional interest in monetary policy [3] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled that there is no urgent need for rate cuts, suggesting that the USD will have policy support in the short term [5] - The market is expected to experience more volatility from adjustments in expectations rather than a trend reversal [5] Group 2: EUR Challenges - The Eurozone is facing significant economic pressures, with Germany's economic growth projected at only 0.2% for 2025, highlighting a lack of momentum [6] - The European Central Bank's medium-term outlook shows inflation returning to target levels, but economic growth is expected to remain between 1.2% and 1.4%, which may not provide strong support for the Euro [6] - The Euro's performance is likely to depend more on relative stability rather than a clear strengthening [6] Group 3: JPY Outlook - The Japanese Yen is in focus due to potential interest rate stability and concerns over its weakness, with the possibility of coordinated intervention being discussed [7] - Internal divisions within the Bank of Japan suggest that interest rate hikes may occur sooner than the market currently anticipates, increasing sensitivity to news [7] - The volatility in the Yen impacts various sectors, including consumer spending and international trade [7] Group 4: Other Currencies and Regional Dynamics - Other regions are also experiencing significant developments, such as the UK delaying employment survey releases, reflecting challenges in data quality and policy judgment [8] - India aims to conclude trade negotiations with the EU by January 26, which could positively affect regional currencies and capital flows [8] - In Asia, Hong Kong's finance chief has stated there will be no reduction in stock stamp duty, while South Korea's finance minister emphasizes the need to halt excessive depreciation of the Won [8] - The overall forex market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations driving dynamics and differentiated fundamentals" [8]

美联储保尔森：对通胀前景不太担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Kansas City Fed President Esther George indicated that interest rates should remain at a level that continues to apply pressure on the economy to further cool inflation, suggesting a preference for maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy [1][5] - George noted that while there are signs of cooling in the labor market, this trend may persist for some time to avoid worsening inflation prospects, emphasizing that the slowdown in the job market is driven by structural factors [1][5] - Fed Governor Michael Barr expressed concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in light of the U.S. Department of Justice's criminal investigation and accusations against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating these actions challenge the Fed's independence [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The market is currently focused on key economic data releases, including Germany's December CPI year-on-year final value, Germany's 2025 annual GDP year-on-year, and the U.S. December industrial production month-on-month [1][5] - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, trading around 4605, influenced by profit-taking and strong U.S. economic data, along with optimistic comments from Fed officials [2][7] - The USD/JPY pair saw a slight increase, trading around 155.30, supported by expectations of the Fed's inaction in January and positive economic data, although concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan limited upward movement [3][8] - The USD/CAD pair also rose slightly, trading around 1.3890, supported by a strong U.S. dollar and weak Canadian economic data, with attention on the 1.4000 resistance level [4][9]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 1029.10 CNY per gram, with a slight decline of 0.18% from the previous session, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The highest price reached was 1034.50 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 1026.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a range of volatility in the market [1] - The technical analysis suggests a high-level oscillation pattern for gold T+D, with key support at 990 CNY per gram and resistance at 1010 CNY per gram [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has gained unexpected public support, with notable figures in the financial community praising his leadership amid ongoing investigations related to monetary policy [1] - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen supports the Fed's recent decisions to lower interest rates, indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate being slightly above neutral [2] - Paulsen suggests that inflation is expected to progress towards the 2% target by the end of the year, and she is inclined towards moderate rate cuts later in the year, contingent on inflation data and labor market conditions [2]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - The central bank mainly announced structural policies, giving positive expectations for future RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, but market confidence is insufficient, and interest rates have rebounded. The clear window for long - positions in the bond market may still need to wait. In a context of loose liquidity, it is recommended to adopt a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term. If supply disruptions and the spring rally of equities do not exceed expectations in the short term, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. Looking further, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored. If the economic and financial data are stabilized by structural monetary policies, the bond market may face a longer period of oscillation [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seven Key Points of the Central Bank Press Conference - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: These are to be implemented first, collaborating with fiscal policies to boost domestic demand and economic structural transformation, ensuring a good start. They have been optimized in price, quantity, and direction. For example, interest rates of various tools were cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the quota for certain loans was increased [7][9] - **Aggregate Monetary Policy**: Aggregate monetary policy easing still needs time. However, the central bank has conveyed positive expectations, and there is still significant room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts with reduced constraints [10] - **Funds**: "Guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy rate" is equivalent to "guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy rate". Short - term funds face little pressure, but future broad - credit and growth - stabilizing effects need to be observed [12] - **Bonds**: The central bank's reasonable range for the 10 - year Treasury yield is around 1.8%, with a difference of about 10BP between the upper and lower limits. The overall bond market interest rate is stable and reasonable [15] - **Treasury Bond Trading**: If the bond market experiences an excessive decline, the central bank may increase the scale and extend the term of Treasury bond trading to maintain stability [17] - **Inflation**: The central bank has a positive view on inflation, believing it has shown an upward trend. The possibility of aggregate easing based on price levels in the short term is low [18] - **Exchange Rate**: The exchange rate is likely to fluctuate and appreciate. In the first half of 2026, it may have a narrow - range oscillation, and it is expected to break through the oscillation range in the second half [19] 2. Outlook on Bonds after the Central Bank Press Conference - The bond market's clear long - position window may still need to wait. In a loose liquidity environment, a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term is more important. If short - term factors do not exceed expectations, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. In the long run, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored [2][21] - Currently, short - term credit carry is more cost - effective, with lower fluctuations. For long - term bonds, large - scale banks are optimistic, while non - bank institutions are cautious. The key lies in whether short - sellers in the trading market are cleared and whether the liability side returns to stability. For certificates of deposit, they also have certain investment value as they remain oscillating slightly above 1.6% [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices initially declined and then rebounded, with losses in domestic refined copper imports persisting. The US labor market remains resilient, and a Fed official said there's no reason to cut interest rates. China's central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons, Comex inventories increased by 4,653 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and BC copper increased by 2,098 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream procurement became more cautious, and the export window is gradually opening. Trump said he would not impose tariffs on key minerals like copper. The high - level instability of copper prices is evident, and there is a divergence between foreign capital's bullish sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Spot alumina prices fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina producers have high ore reserves, and costs are under pressure. With the end of environmental controls and increased production, along with imports, inventories are accumulating. The processing end of the photovoltaic industry may maintain resilience, and the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has eased slightly. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount is narrowing [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.04% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.24%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce its nickel ore production target in 2026, which may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap and stimulate nickel price increases. The first - level nickel production has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. Short - term, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US labor market data is strong, and China's central bank cut interest rates. Inventory changes vary in different markets. High copper prices make downstream procurement cautious, and the export window is opening. Trump's statement on tariffs and external risks affect copper prices, with a divergence between market sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures and spot prices of aluminum - related products are weak. Alumina costs are under pressure, inventories are accumulating, and the processing end may maintain resilience, with aluminum prices remaining high and the discount narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight, inventories increased. Indonesia's production cut plan may drive up prices, while increased production and hedging demand pose challenges [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 15, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventories decreased by 500 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 1,070 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 3,800 tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 2,107 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 470 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 2,000 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 14,010 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased by 16,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,350 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased by 624 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 1,700 tons, and social inventories increased by 2,126 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 6,230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.8%. LME inventories decreased by 25 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 793 tons, and social inventories decreased by 5,000 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 8.3%. LME inventories decreased by 5 tons, SHFE inventories decreased by 1,001 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [12]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [18]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [30]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [37]. Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience and many honors; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both with significant achievements and media exposure [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Inflation is a prominent narrative. China will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." The central bank has cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to float bidirectionally [2] - There is a certain differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. Overseas economic climate has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery, and its economic data in December is generally better. The US economic data is mixed, with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts [3] - Currently, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. There are opportunities for low-valued commodities to catch up in price. Pay attention to the short - term emotional risks of the new energy sector, the development of the Iranian situation, the "anti-involution" space of chemical products, weather conditions for agricultural products, and opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti-involution." The 2026 PBOC work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and cut the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools. The geopolitical situation between Iran and Venezuela has tightened, and the CME will change the margin setting method for precious metal contracts [2] - There is a differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. China's foreign trade is improving, with exports and imports in December exceeding expectations. The official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December are in the expansion range. The US economic data is mixed, with the ISM manufacturing index falling, non - farm payrolls missing expectations, but overall economic improvement according to the Fed's Beige Book. There are increasing expectations of US interest rate cuts [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints, and aluminum and nickel are preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term emotional risks in the new energy sector. The US will "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and the Iranian situation has temporarily cooled. There is "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and agricultural products are affected by weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - As of the end of December, M2, M1, and M0 have different year - on - year growth rates, and there is a net cash injection for the whole year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans and RMB loans has increased year - on - year [7] - The PBOC has cut the interest rates of re - loans and rediscounts by 0.25 percentage points since January 19, 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [7] - The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. Fed officials have different stances on interest rates. Trump has no current plan to fire Powell, but the situation is still uncertain. The Iranian situation has temporarily cooled, and international oil prices have fallen [7] - Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has decided to form a new political party with the Komeito Party [7]