Group 1 - The U.S. and India are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, while the U.S. and Mexico are nearing an agreement on steel import tariffs [12] - The European Union proposed to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45, with Putin announcing an extension of countermeasures [12] - The U.K. is fully pricing in two interest rate cuts by the Bank of England within the year due to a significant drop in employment numbers [12] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, S&P 500 up 0.55%, and Nasdaq up 0.6% [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index opened high but closed down 0.08%, with significant movements in sectors like aviation and rare earths [5] - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.86%, amid a chaotic market environment [6] Group 3 - The price of spot gold closed at $3322.6 per ounce, down 0.09%, while spot silver closed at $36.53 per ounce, down 0.63% [7] - WTI crude oil closed at $64.47 per barrel, down 0.14%, and Brent crude oil closed at $66.72 per barrel, down 0.09% [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.63%, the S&P 500 by 0.55%, and the Dow Jones by 0.25%, marking new closing highs since late February and early March respectively [1] - Major tech stocks experienced upward movement, with Intel increasing nearly 8%, Tesla over 5%, and other companies like Google, Meta, and Apple showing modest gains [1] - The positive market performance was attributed to optimistic signals from U.S. Commerce Secretary, indicating progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report casts a shadow over global economic prospects, lowering the 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating a potential slowdown not seen since the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [2] - The report warns that the 2020s could be the worst decade for economic performance since the Apollo moon landing, with global trade growth expected to drop to 1.8% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024 [2] - The World Bank anticipates that nearly 60% of developing economies will face economic slowdowns this year, a downgrade from previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs illegal, arguing that halting these tariffs could lead to "irreparable economic and national security harm" [3] - A recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ordered the suspension of these tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them shortly after [3]

莱系今日小幅上扬，莱粕略强于菜油。菜系市场主要关注加拿大莱籽产区天气与中加贸易关系。萨斯喀彻温省 油菜优良率为57%，差于过往两年的同期水平。阿尔伯塔省受限于春季以来降雨有限,土壤湿度呈现下滑趋势, 情况与2022年、2023年较为类似，参考历史上这两年的情况来看,6月份的降雨会对墒情大有益处,关注6月份 的降雨情况。中美双方在伦敦举行的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议备受关注，乐观预期提振了国内外油籽、油箱 期价。综合来看，国内菜系期价短期存在支撑，策略上仍以短多为主。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z001203 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on June 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and chemical futures, and gives resistance and support levels [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided. For the whole of June 2025, they are also expected to have a generally strong - oscillating trend [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][39]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2508 are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while silver futures AG2508 are likely to oscillate strongly and may hit a new high. For June 2025, gold futures are expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend, and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and break through key resistance levels [3][45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper (CU2507), aluminum (AL2507) futures are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, while alumina (AO2509), zinc (ZN2507), nickel (NI2507), rebar (RB2510), hot - rolled coil (HC2510), iron ore (I2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Different resistance and support levels are given for each [3][4][5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures SC2507 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels. For June 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend [5][95]. - **Chemical Futures**: PTA (TA509) futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while PVC (V2509), methanol (MA509), and natural rubber (RU2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly, with corresponding resistance and support levels [7][101][103]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [8]. - **Domestic Policies**: The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on improving people's livelihood, and the State Council carried out a special study on promoting the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and PPI was still at a low level. In the first five months, China's total import and export value increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [8][9]. - **International News**: The US Senate Republicans plan to propose a revised tax and healthcare bill, the US may hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and late September, and consumer inflation expectations in the US decreased in May [10]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On June 9, international precious metals futures closed mixed, and international oil prices strengthened. The first recycled metal futures option, cast aluminum alloy, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10 [12]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 9. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 all showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The A - share market oscillated and rebounded, and the Hong Kong stock market was strong [14][15][16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 9, the ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 both showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The central bank carried out 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1738 billion yuan [36][41]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On June 9, gold futures AU2508 fell, while silver futures AG2508 rose and hit a new high [45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On June 9, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures showed different trends of rise and fall [54][59][63][68][71][77][80][83]. - **Energy Futures**: On June 9, crude oil futures SC2507 rose [95]. - **Chemical Futures**: On June 9, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber futures showed different trends of rise and fall [101][103][105][108].

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 PPI 仍未止跌，焦煤增仓下行，等待二次触底 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 10 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 1. 五月份，中国 CPI 同比下降 0.1%，降幅与上月持平，PPI 同比下降 3.3%，降幅比 上月扩大 0.6 个百分点。 现货第三轮提降落地，期货走平。天津港准一级焦报 1270 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 1339 元/吨(-11.5)。基差 26.59 元/吨(+11.5)，9-1 月差-21 元/吨(+1.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's exports to the United States in May amounted to $28.8 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 35%, the largest drop since February 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data and Trends - The decline in exports to the U.S. has worsened compared to April's 21% drop, despite a mutual reduction of additional tariffs by 115% agreed upon during ministerial talks in Switzerland on May 10-11 [1][2]. - The significant drop in exports is attributed to high tariffs that had previously hindered shipments, with companies needing time to adjust and resume normal operations post-tariff reduction [3][4]. - Specific categories of goods, such as smartphones, toys, and furniture, have seen a decline in exports compared to the same period last year, with smartphones down over 20% [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Predictions indicate a temporary recovery in June, with a surge in exports expected to continue until August [4]. - Despite the challenges in U.S. exports, China's overall exports to other countries remain strong, with ASEAN being the largest export destination, showing a 15% increase compared to last year [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate market showed resilience in May, with new home sales improving month-on-month, while year-on-year declines narrowed [6][29] - The report anticipates a continued downward pressure on sales in the second half of the year due to potential uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations [6][29] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality land reserves and product strength for real estate companies to achieve alpha attributes [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -0.1%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3874.0, with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while the real estate index closed at 2174.1, with a weekly increase of 0.8% [6][10][11] Policy Developments - Nationally, the central government supports urban renewal actions, with 20 cities including Beijing and Guangzhou selected. Locally, Jiangsu has announced measures to boost consumption, while Hunan and Zhejiang have introduced policies to support housing and property acquisition [6][13][21] Sales Data - In the 23rd week, new home sales in 44 major cities decreased to 14,000 units, down 33.1% from the previous week. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also fell to 15,000 units, down 23.0% [6][16] - Inventory levels decreased, with 18 major cities holding 825,000 units, down 21,000 units from the previous week, and a sales-to-inventory ratio of 16.8 months, down 4.5 months [6][23] Company Announcements - Key companies have made significant announcements, including major asset restructuring and share repurchase plans. Notable mentions include Chengjian Development and Haitai Development [6][28][29] Future Outlook - The report expects a year-on-year increase in second-hand home transaction volumes, while new home sales are projected to continue declining but at a reduced rate. The core areas with high efficiency and premium properties are expected to drive this trend [6][29]

海关总署6月9日发布最新数据显示，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值为17.94万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长2.5%。其中，出口10.67万亿 元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。 海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良表示，今年以来，我国经济持续回升向好，货物贸易在外部压力下保持较强韧性。进入5月份，我国进出口延续增长态势，特别是 中美经贸高层会谈之后，增速明显加快。当月在同比少2个工作日的情况下，进出口、出口分别实现2.7%、6.3%的同比增长。 对美进出口降幅收窄 "中美关税政策的阶段性调整能够带来一定的积极影响。前期145%的高关税极大地压制了需求，90天窗口刺激补货的动力，其积极效应可能有集中大规模显现的可 能。此外，对东盟等市场的出口将继续保持韧性增长，部分弥补对美贸易的损失。"对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院研究员陈建伟接受记者采访时表示。 与大多数贸易伙伴贸易往来保持增长 根据海关总署统计数据，今年1—5月，除意大利、美国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、巴西等国家，我国对其他主要国别（地区）的累计进出口值均保持增长。其中，非洲 与我国的贸易往来增长表现亮眼。海关总署数据显示，今年1—5月，我国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices have deviated from the moving - average system. This week, focus on its effectiveness as the basis for whether the defense is lifted [5] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel has started to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach can be taken on dips [8] - Due to news disturbances, coking coal and coke will rebound from oversold levels at low positions [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly oscillate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Dongguan Zhongliang's imported third - grade rapeseed oil is priced at 9,260 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean meal spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,206 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,413 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton; at Bayuquan Port, it is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 78,990 yuan, up 460 yuan, with a premium of flat - 150 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - The iron ore Platts index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole - latex 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 14,950 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: RSS3 63.87 Thai baht/kg, latex 56.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 49.5 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 60.5 Thai baht/kg [12] - The mainstream spot price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 320 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged [13] - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [14] Market Analysis - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed one after another. In the near term, the supply of imported rapeseed is abundant, while in the long term, it is relatively tight. The downstream demand for rapeseed oil is neutral, and the inventory may remain high in the short and medium term [2] - Soybean meal: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions still exist. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for international soybean prices. The sowing of US soybeans is going smoothly, and it is the peak export period for Brazilian soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the supply pressure of soybean meal is becoming prominent, the trading volume is shrinking, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak [3] - Corn: The weather in US corn - producing areas is favorable for sowing and growth. The Sino - US trade relationship has eased, and there are concerns about long - term import pressure. In China, the corn market is in the off - season between old and new grains, the supply may be tight, wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather speculation will affect prices. The downstream demand is weak [4] - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts this year. Global tariff confrontations continue, and China's support policies are boosting market sentiment. On the industrial side, raw material disturbances are intensifying, and domestic copper inventories are declining [5] - Lithium carbonate: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is still high, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is changing. The prices of spot and futures are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [6] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, the valuation is relatively low, the cost is dynamically changing, the inventory is at a low level, and the short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Coking coal and coke: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] - Iron ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. The supply has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, the overseas demand is differentiated, and news factors are suppressing the upward space [10] - Crude oil: The US - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, the Russia - Ukraine war has intensified, and the OPEC+ meeting has agreed to increase production in July, but there are objections. The supply may shrink, and the global demand is worrying [11] - Rubber: The supply is abundant, the US trade war and tariffs may suppress demand, and after the bearish factors are realized, the price may rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - PVC: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [13] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the inventory is slightly increasing, the demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the market rebounded. The holiday news was stable, and the potential positive news of Sino - US trade and the cooling of US small non - farm data supported risk assets. The stock market sentiment was active, and the index was strong. Over the weekend, positive news continued to emerge [1]. - This week, a series of economic data will be released, which may reveal the impact of the trade friction on the real economy and affect the expectation of policy easing. Overall, the disturbing force may not be large, and under the weak expectation of the real economy, the policy easing expectation is strong, providing a neutral - to - positive support to the market. Without major negative events, the stock market is expected to be driven by structural hot topics. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on dips [2]. - Factors to watch include domestic economic data, Sino - US negotiation progress, and US inflation data [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, US stocks rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.17%, the S&P 500 up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq up 2.18%. European stocks also generally rose, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.75%, the German DAX up 1.28%, and the French CAC40 up 0.68%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.59%, while the Hang Seng Index rose 2.16% [7]. - **Domestic Stock Index Performance**: Most domestic major indexes rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.16%. Since 2025, most major indexes have declined [7]. - **Industry Performance**: In the CSI 300 Index, the telecommunications and information sectors rose, while the consumer and optional consumption sectors fell. In the CSI 500 Index, most industries rose [8]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips. The core operating ranges of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are 3740 - 3933 points, 2607 - 2727 points, 5554 - 5926 points, and 5887 - 6283 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Cautiously hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - The TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, and SSE 50 Index are 14.49 times, 12.46 times, and 10.85 times respectively. The TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index are 27.66 times and 36.02 times respectively [17][18]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals Review - The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [21].