Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - October 14, 2025: Macro Impact Reduces, Market Drops Significantly" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2902, down 30; 05 contract at 2728, down 18; 09 contract at 2844, down 14. Spot basis varied in different regions [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2348, down 44; 05 contract at 2291, down 24; 09 contract at 2380, down 23. Spot basis also changed in different regions [4]. Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: 15 - spread was 174, down 12; 59 - spread was - 116, down 4; 91 - spread was - 58, up 16 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: 15 - spread was 57, down 20; 59 - spread was - 89, down 1; 91 - spread was 32, up 21 [4]. Cross - Variety Spread - **Soy - Rapeseed 01 Spread**: 554, up from 540; 09 spread was 464, up from 455. Oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.839, up from 2.820 [4]. Spot Spread - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal**: 414, down 4; Rapeseed Meal - Sunflower Meal was 260, down 20; Soybean Meal - Sunflower Meal was 624, up 6 [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Market - The US has suspended report publishing, with limited new information. Old - crop ending stocks were slightly raised, and new - crop supply increased slightly due to a small cut in yield but an increase in planted area. The market is mainly affected by exports [5]. South American Market - South American old - crop is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about exports [5]. International Market - International soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in major产区' crushing volume, while imports of major importers increase slightly [5]. Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: As of October 10, soybean crushing was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%. Soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, up 6.37% from last week and 14.29% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, down 9.26% from last week but up 6.17% year - on - year [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: As of October 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. Rapeseed inventory was 18,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 11,500 tons, down 15,300 tons [7]. Group 4: Macro Analysis - Sino - US communication has reduced trade conflict concerns, but the Madrid negotiation provided little clear information on beans. With China's decreasing demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the upside of the domestic soybean meal market is limited [8]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The market is falling. Argentina's increased exports have squeezed US soybeans' export space, but there is still support for US soybeans. The upside of US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. Domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, and the pressure may continue. Rapeseed meal has low inventory but weak demand, and its price lacks volatility [9]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Hold short positions in far - month soybean meal contracts. - **Arbitrage**: Long M11 and short M01. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle structure [10]

来源：财经网 随着特朗普政府持续释放缓和信号寻求谈判。美股周一收高，三大股指均挽回上周五的部分失地。道指 反弹将近600点，标普对上周五的失地收复大约一半。半导体ETF收涨超4.4%，领跑美股行业ETF，标 普科技板块涨约2.5%。中概指数收涨3.2%。 黄金涨势继续，10月13日纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨2.27%，报4109.17美元/盎司，全天持续、平滑地震荡 上行，一度刷新历史高位至4117.13美元。COMEX黄金期货涨3.21%，报4128.80美元/盎司，一度涨至 4137.20美元创盘中历史新高。费城金银指数收涨4.76%，报309.59点，突破10月8日所创收盘历史最高 位309.12点。纽约证交所ARCA金矿开采商指数收涨4.00%，报2201.05点，逼近10月8日所创收盘历史最 高位2207.52点。 美国总统特朗普当地时间10日威胁对中国商品大规模加征关税，包括对关键软件实施出口管制。特朗普 表示，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，美国将从11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关税。美股 市场因此出现大幅波动，期权交易量创下历史纪录。 在此后的60多个小时内，美国政府立场大幅转向。特朗普暗 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：真灼财经） 美股三大指数经上週五急跌后出现反弹，道指升1.29%，重上46,000点，标普500指数及纳指则分别上升 1.56%及2.2%。反映中概股表现之金龙指数亦反弹3.2%。 至于中港股市昨日同样下跌。A股方面，上综指及深成指分别低开2.5%及3.9%，不过跌幅持续收窄，前 者收报3,889点，微跌0.19%，后者跌幅亦收窄至不足1%，收报13,231点，两者均以接近全日高位收市； 两市成交金额则超过2.3万亿元人民币。港股同样未能止跌，恒指低开656点后最多曾跌954点，低见 25,336点，不过午后显著反弹，最终收报25,889点，下跌500点或1.5%，科指一度大跌近5%，最终收窄 至1.8%，报6,145点，全日成交相当活跃，达到4,903亿元。成份股中以药明康德(02359)表现最差，跌近 6%，小米(1810)、金沙(01928)及舜宇(02382)跌幅均超过5%。科技股整体走势亦偏弱，快手(01024)跌超 过4%，阿里巴巴(09988)、腾讯(00700)及美团(03690)跌幅亦超过1%。逆市中依然有不少成份股造好， 当中中芯(00981)升近3.4%，另外紫金 ...

中船防务（600685）(00317)午后涨近6%，截至发稿，涨4.72%，报15.75港元，成交额8021.74万港元。 值得注意的是，10月10日，交通运输部发布《关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告》，10月14日 起，对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费。申万宏源表示，中国对美反制，航运船舶再迎历史机会。后续重点 跟踪：如果美资参股中国制造的船舶豁免，中国造船订单有望爆发；中美和谈，美国301调查同步取 消，利好造船；中美和谈，中国采购美国油，运距拉长。 消息面上，交通运输部会同工信部等部门对我国航运业、造船业和相关产业链供应链安全和发展利益受 美301调查影响或可能影响情况，相关企业、组织或个人是否存在实施、协助、支持美国在航运业、造 船业及相关产业链供应链对我国采取歧视性限制措施的行为，及其他相关事项开展调查。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5][6] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass suggests buying on dips [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions on dips; aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin suggests range trading; gold suggests buying on dips; silver suggests range trading [1][10][11][17][18][19][20][21] - **Energy and chemical industry**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash suggests a short - selling strategy [1][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750; apples and jujubes are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agricultural and livestock industry**: Pigs and eggs suggest shorting on rallies; corn suggests wide - range oscillations; soybean meal suggests range oscillations; oils are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][40][43][45][47][49] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has short - term fluctuations due to factors such as Trump's remarks on tariffs and geopolitical events, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The long - term trends of industries like AI in China and the US are clear, and the US monetary and fiscal policies are in force [5] - In the commodity market, different products have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment impacts 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to oscillate and are long - term optimistic. Due to trade concerns, geopolitical events, and other factors, there may be short - term fluctuations, but full - scale panic is unlikely. Investors can either wait for better opportunities or lock in positions [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They should be kept under observation. Trump's remarks on retaliatory measures may cause short - term oscillations [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to oscillate. Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend [8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to oscillate. Currently, the price is under the cost of electric - arc furnace valley electricity and long - process production. In October, the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [8] - **Glass**: It suggests buying on dips. Although the current market has some supply - demand problems, under the background of policy expectations, the glass price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. Due to the intensification of Sino - US trade tensions, the price has dropped significantly recently, but the long - term supply - demand situation is still optimistic [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is entering the peak season. Long positions can be held [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to oscillate. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has some uncertainties for the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of nickel is in surplus, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - **Gold and silver**: They are expected to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm payroll data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are rising. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price pullbacks [19][20][21] 3.4 Energy and chemical industry - **PVC**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is under pressure, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the pressure at 4850 [22][23] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the range of 2380 - 2530. The market is affected by factors such as upstream inventory and downstream demand [24][25] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it focuses on the range of 6600 - 6900 [26][27] - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply growth expectation is strong, and it focuses on the support at 15000 [28][29] - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating [30] - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is increasing [32] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The L2601 contract focuses on the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract focuses on the support at 6600 [31][32][33] - **Soda ash**: The 01 contract suggests a short - selling strategy. The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the inventory is accumulating [33][34] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand situation has some changes, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US relations [35][36] - **PTA**: It suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, the price is weakly oscillating [36] - **Apples and jujubes**: They are expected to be strongly oscillating. Apples are affected by weather, and jujubes are affected by factors such as production areas and market demand [37][38] 3.6 Agricultural and livestock industry - **Pigs**: They are overall under pressure. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the price is weak in the short - term. Different contracts have different investment strategies [40][42] - **Eggs**: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term supply is sufficient, the demand is weakening, and different contracts have different investment strategies [43][44][45] - **Corn**: It suggests range oscillations. It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is affected by factors such as new crop listing and demand [45][46] - **Soybean meal**: The rebound is limited. The US soybeans are affected by factors such as harvest pressure and Sino - US talks, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations [47][48] - **Oils**: They are in high - level adjustment. Short - term回调 risks are increasing, and it is recommended to wait for the end of the回调 before considering long positions [49][50][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - **Global Climate**: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - **US Biodiesel**: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - **Global Rapeseed**: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - **Soybean Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December**: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Spread**: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - **Rapeseed Market Supply**: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - **National Feed Production**: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - **Pig Market**: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - **Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming**: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - **Meat Duck Inventory**: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - **Soybean Meal Market**: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - **Rapeseed Meal Market**: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.354 | 102.270 | 105.650 | 105.550 | 107.980 | 107.690 | 113.97 | 113.64 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.394 | 102.296 | 105.730 | 105.610 | 108.045 | 107.720 | 114.53 | 114.18 | | | 涨跌 | -0.040 | -0.026 | -0.080 | -0.060 | -0.065 | -0.030 | -0.560 | -0.540 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

Macro Insights - The current round of tariffs by Trump is aimed at accumulating leverage for future negotiations, with agricultural products and rare earths being key pressure points for the U.S. [4] - The likelihood of a complete decoupling in U.S.-China trade is low, as neither side desires this outcome, but the process towards TACO (Trade Agreement with China) is expected to be complex due to structural differences in interests [4] Fixed Income - In the period from September 28 to October 11, 2025, a total of 119 credit bonds were issued, amounting to 141.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 75.82% compared to the previous period [5] - The total transaction volume of credit bonds was 855.28 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 47.12% [5] Banking Sector - The demand for credit remains weak, leading to a continued suppression of credit issuance, with social financing growth expected to decline from a high base [6] - M1 growth may continue to rise on a low base, while M2 growth is anticipated to decrease on a high base, indicating an increase in the degree of monetary activation [6] Rare Earth Industry - The supply of rare earths is further constrained by technical export controls, while demand remains resilient with potential new growth points [7] - The valuation of rare earths is supported by their inherent value as resources and strategic metals, leading to a bullish outlook for the rare earth permanent magnet sector [7] Copper Industry - China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month in September, with potential pressure on copper prices due to Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 [8] - Despite tight supply, copper prices are expected to rise in the future as downstream demand from sectors like power grids and air conditioning rebounds in Q4 [8] Oil and Chemical Sector - OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased significantly following a ceasefire agreement [9] - As of October 10, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $62.09 and $58.24 per barrel, respectively, reflecting declines of 3.5% and 4.0% from the previous week [9] Basic Chemicals - The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded for groundbreaking contributions in the field of Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs), indicating a promising outlook for industrialization in this area [10]

Core Viewpoint - Trump has restarted the tariff negotiations, indicating that the U.S. economy is showing signs of bottoming out, which provides leverage for future negotiations with China [4][5]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy is paving the way for potential rate cuts, which could support economic recovery [4]. - Recent data on consumer spending and manufacturing suggests stabilization in the U.S. economy, enhancing Trump's confidence in imposing additional tariffs [4]. Trade Agreements - Trump has reached preliminary trade agreements with several countries, including Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian nations, allowing him to focus on negotiations with China [4][5]. Agricultural Impact - China is a significant importer of U.S. agricultural products, particularly soybeans, and any halt in purchases could adversely affect U.S. agricultural states, influencing the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [4][5]. Political Landscape - The current U.S. government shutdown highlights severe partisan conflicts, which may hinder the implementation of structural agricultural subsidies [4]. - The outcome of the midterm elections and ongoing legal challenges regarding tariffs will also impact the pace of tariff negotiations [4]. Market Reactions - The market interprets Trump's tariff strategy as a means to accumulate leverage for future negotiations, despite the potential risks associated with a complete decoupling of U.S.-China trade [5].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251012 如何看待本轮特朗普的关税威胁？ 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ◼ 海外政治：特朗普再度威胁对华加征关税，未来关注双方相关反制措施 和高规格会晤进展。美东时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普在社交媒体上表示因 不满稀土管制相关措施，美国将自 11 月 1 日起对华额外加征 100%关 税，并对关键软件实行出口管制。市场因此再度选择避险交易：美股美 铜美油、美债利率、美元指数均下跌，黄金震荡向上。从背景上看，本 次推动特朗普再度升级关税威胁的原因包括：①外部压力暂时缓解。10 月 9 日巴以双方达成停火协议，美国在外部的地缘政治冲突压力有所缓 解，这使得特朗普能够将更多精力转移到中美贸易这一重要外交事务 上。②内部矛盾需要转移。当前美国政府仍处于停摆状态，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等主流博彩机构均预期停摆时长将延续至 10 月 15 日之后。 这意味着美国军人的工资将延期发放。因此特朗普需要将内部矛盾转移 至外部以缓和国内局势可能迎来的不稳定因素。从影响上看，①经济方 面，由于此前对等关税的威胁，中美贸易已在今年 1-9 月完成抢跑，叠 ...