1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term driving force of crude oil is centered around the Iranian geopolitical risks. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and it is advisable to wait for mid - term short - selling opportunities. Chemical products should be viewed differently. Methanol has significant fundamental pressure, and its geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. The short - term strength of styrene is due to inventory reduction, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. PX - PTA is in an adjustment phase, and it is not yet time to enter the second long position. The fundamentals of PP and plastics in the olefin chain are weak, maintaining a bearish view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In addition to the inventory build - up in the first - quarter supply - demand balance sheets of the three major institutions, the API crude oil and refined oil inventories in the US showed a significant build - up again. The market is currently driven by Iranian geopolitical risks, but there are no pre - conditions for a short - term military strike. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be awaited. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It faced resistance at the 447 level today and support is at the 433 (03 contract) level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: The downstream terminal demand is in the off - season. The current pricing of the market mainly depends on the future flow of Venezuelan Merey crude oil. If Venezuelan crude oil flows to the US instead of Asia, the increase in cost of alternative raw materials for domestic refineries will support the market. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, with intraday fluctuations returning to the oscillation range. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [6]. (3) Styrene - Logic: The weekly operating rate is 70.92%, slightly increasing month - on - month but at a low level year - on - year. Both supply and demand are weak. However, since December, export inquiries and actual transactions have increased, and port inventories have decreased significantly. The continuous inventory reduction and market sentiment have led to short - term strength, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, reaching a short - term high with increased positions today. The short - term support has moved up to the 6990 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound when the support is broken [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: Terminal tire inventories are high, and Qingdao's natural rubber inventories continue to build up and are higher than the same period last year. There are no disruptions on the supply side, and it is not yet in the speculative stage. This upward movement is a passive follow - up of synthetic rubber, and the upside is limited due to the weakening of downstream tire operating rates. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a high and then declined today, with the short - term support moving up to the 15800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [14]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply remains high, but the downstream's phased restocking has led to inventory reduction of synthetic rubber and its raw material butadiene. The strengthening of butadiene has driven the upward movement of synthetic rubber from the cost side. However, the spot trading of butadiene weakened over the weekend, and tire operating rates weakened again, limiting the upside. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today. The short - term support has moved up to the 11800 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [18]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 7420 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22]. (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 5220 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [23][25]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which PP belongs are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It closed slightly up with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 6430 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [26]. (9) Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply remains high, and the expected reduction in imports in January has been priced in the market. Downstream traditional demand is expected to decrease before the Spring Festival, and MTO demand is expected to decline due to compressed profits. Both port and inland inventories are high, and the port inventory is 154 million tons, 80% higher than the same period last year. The Iranian unrest is gradually subsiding, and the geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today but failed to break through the upper limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range. The short - term (hourly) support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold a short position on the 15 - minute chart with a stop - loss at the 2300 level [29]. (10) PVC - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains. However, the proposed differential electricity price in Shaanxi may lead to a reduction in calcium carbide production, which is positive. The announcement of canceling the VAT export tax rebate for PVC from April 1, 2026, brings short - term positive and long - term negative effects, with a short - term expectation of inventory reduction due to pre - export rush. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, with short - term support at the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [32]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and there are concerns about a decline in polyester operating rates. On the supply side, coal - based production has recovered, and domestic weekly production remains high, with new production capacity expected. Port inventories are still building up, and there is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It increased in volume with reduced positions today, and the short - term support is at the 3800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [35]. (12) Plastics - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which plastics belong are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 66070 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [37][39]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The oversupply situation of soda ash remains unchanged, and there is little expectation of an increase in terminal demand. After the resumption of maintenance on the supply side, the operating rate has increased, and the previous support from inventory reduction is no longer there. There is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It oscillated within the day today. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a small - cycle rebound when the price breaks below the lower limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range at the 1200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, and there is no sign of a reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term pressure is at the 2125 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and went low, touching the 5 - day moving average. International oil prices are rising, and there is an expected reduction in olefin supply, with good downstream demand [2] - Plastic futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. Cost - end support is strengthening, some spot is tight, and downstream factories replenish stocks as needed [2] - Polypropylene futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. The number of maintenance devices has increased, supply has shrunk, and downstream demand is stable due to pre - holiday order - making [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Spot and futures prices are rising. Cost - end support is obvious due to geopolitical factors, but there is a large inventory and high resistance to destocking in the long - term [3] - Styrene: The main futures contract was sorted out narrowly. Cost - end support is strong, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and exports are improving [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: They continued to fluctuate. The short - term upward drive of PX is weak, but the medium - term outlook is positive. PTA's processing margin has moderately recovered [5] - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into operation, and overseas devices are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is pressure in the short - term, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [5] - Short fiber: Enterprise inventory is low, but downstream orders are weak. Demand will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip: The operating rate has decreased, inventory has declined, and prices are firm. However, over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The futures market is strong. Overseas device operating rates are low, and port inventory is decreasing. But there are concerns about weakening demand [6] - Urea: The futures market rose strongly. Demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. The market is expected to be strong in the spring [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It showed a strong and volatile trend. The operating rate has increased, but demand is weak. There may be arbitrage opportunities in the short - term, and the price is expected to rise in 2026 [7] - Caustic soda: It is operating weakly. The chlorine market is good, but the industry is generally in the red. There is pressure from inventory accumulation [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It showed a strong and volatile trend. Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass: It is operating weakly. Production capacity is being compressed, demand is insufficient, but there may be long - term low - buying opportunities after the decline [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - With the escalation of the situation in Iran, the short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly, but it is greatly affected by the news, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The overall export volume of fuel oil is not significantly affected by the attacks on Russian energy facilities. The pattern of sanctions on Russian oil products is expected to remain in the short term, and there is no specific plan for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [4]. - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. Around March, when the existing raw material stocks of domestic asphalt refineries are exhausted, fuel oil is expected to fill a certain supply gap [4]. - The fuel oil shipment volume in Iran has shown a downward trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume in January is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is worrying, which may affect the global fuel oil supply - demand balance [4]. 3) Summary by Related Information Geopolitical Situation - US President Trump said that a 25% tariff will be imposed on the goods of countries doing business with Iran, and the US and France have notified their citizens to leave Iran. Trump also threatened to take "very tough action" if Iran executes anti - government protesters [3]. Market Situation - The short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly due to the situation in Iran, and the market is affected by news and may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The attack on Russian energy facilities has little impact on the overall export volume of fuel oil. The sanctions on Russian oil products are expected to remain in the short term, and there is no clear cease - fire plan between Russia and Ukraine [4]. Fuel Oil Fundamentals - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors with no prominent contradiction. Around March, fuel oil may fill the supply gap when domestic asphalt refineries exhaust their raw material stocks [4]. - Iranian fuel oil shipments are decreasing. The January high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is at risk, which may affect the global supply - demand balance [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - led. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 158,940 - 166,660. In the supply side, there are expectations of production and import volume decreases in the next month, while on the demand side, the demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may be reduced. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,535 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises decreased by 3.80% week - on - week to 96,094 tons, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.80% week - on - week to 18,432 tons [8]. - **Expectations**: In December 2025, lithium carbonate production was 99,200 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 97,970 physical tons next month, a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 22,500 physical tons next month, a 13.46% decrease. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 145,425 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a production profit of 5,049 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 149,161 yuan/ton, a 5.04% day - on - day increase, with a production profit of 4,680 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Other Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Data**: The closing price of the 05 contract of lithium carbonate futures increased, and the basis was negative, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The prices of upstream lithium ore and related raw materials generally increased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 3.57% [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased to 87.14%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 99,200 tons, a 4.04% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a 7.64% decrease, and the import volume from Chile decreased by 26.84% [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.78%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.17%. The monthly production of ternary materials decreased, and the weekly inventory decreased by 0.80%. The monthly installed capacity of power batteries increased by 11.18% [18]. - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: The production of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000, a 6.09% increase, the sales volume was 1.823 million, a 6.30% increase, and the export volume was 30,000, a 17.19% increase. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 53.16% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of large inventory drawdown. However, high MTO开工 is a prerequisite for large drawdown, and currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments, and in the short - term, shipments may remain normal. Also, changes in oil prices should be monitored, as the limited upside of methanol currently is due to weak downstream demand, and if oil prices boost other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2] - For plastic, the futures market is oscillating, while the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. Crude oil is oscillating, with oil - based and coal - based profits deteriorating. Upstream coal - chemical industries and Sinopec and PetroChina are de - stocking, while social inventory has increased this week. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly, and the supply of PE in May is expected to have a slightly large pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. Import profit is - 334, and export profit is - 225, with export volume slightly declining. Temporary maintenance plans in the supply side have increased, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Currently, the overall inventory of PP is neutral, and the supply in May and subsequent months is expected to have a slightly large pressure [3] - For PVC, the basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable, with an operating rate of 79.7%, up 1.1% compared to the previous period. Downstream demand is stable. The total inventory level is still moderately high. The current comprehensive profit of PVC is low, and short - term seasonal operating rate recovery is expected. In the long - term, the overall new construction demand in the domestic and foreign real estate markets remains weak, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for PVC is still poor [5] Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 decreased from 2285 to 2257, a decrease of 28; the price of西北折盘面 decreased from 2443 to 2430, a decrease of 13 [2] - Profit data: Import profit decreased from 8 to - 12, and主力基差 decreased from 0 to - 27 [2] Plastic - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 745 to 725. The price of华东LL increased from 6625 to 6825, an increase of 200; the price of华东LD increased from 8800 to 9200, an increase of 400 [2] - Inventory data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 61 to 58, and仓单 decreased from 11540 to 11222 [2] PP - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 5770 to 5940, an increase of 170; the price of华东PP increased from 6240 to 6350, an increase of 110 [3] - Inventory data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 61 to 57, and仓单 increased from 15465 to 17575 [3] PVC - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of西北电石 remained at 2400, the price of山东烧碱 decreased from 715 to 695, a decrease of 20, and the price of电石法 - 华东 increased from 4640 to 4710, an increase of 70 [4][5] - Inventory data: Upstream factory inventory increased from 30.9 to 31.3 (in 10,000 tons), and PVC social inventory increased from 111.4 to 116.4 (in 10,000 tons) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The monthly supply and demand report is bearish, but the domestic spot market is strong. The overall price of the international soybean market is under pressure due to the relatively loose supply - demand situation. The domestic soybean meal spot shows some support in the near - term, but the medium - to - long - term price pressure still exists. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes [3][4][8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3154 with a rise of 30, and the spot basis in Tianjin increased by 10. For rapeseed meal, the 05 contract closed at 2314 with a decline of 16, and the spot basis in Guangdong decreased by 14. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, and the monthly spread of soybean meal continued to be strong, while that of rapeseed meal changed little [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 15 - spread of soybean meal increased by 59, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased by 2616. The 59 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 2, and the 59 - spread of rapeseed meal remained unchanged. The 91 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 57, and the 91 - spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2616 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean and rapeseed 01 decreased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 also decreased [3]. - **Spot Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 19, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal decreased by 20, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal decreased by 9 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply and demand report did not boost the US soybean market. The soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish. The supply in South America is affected, with good growth of new crops in Brazil and increased exports of old crops. The old - crop production in Argentina is large, and the recent crushing and exports have increased [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is in a relatively loose supply - demand state. The oil mill operating rate increased, the supply was sufficient, the提货 volume decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained high. The market transaction increased significantly, and the spot was less. The overall demand remained good, and the uncertainty of future supply supported the price. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, the soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 0.4% from last week and 17.96% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 10.78% from last week and an increase of 72.68% year - on - year. The rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply is low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is still at a relatively high level [7]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **International Market**: The downward pressure on US soybeans has significantly increased. The bearish reports and good yields in South American producing areas are expected to maintain the overall pressure. The short - term dry weather in Brazil has little impact on crop growth, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly. The supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure [8]. - **Domestic Market**: The future soybean arrivals in China will gradually decrease, and there is still great uncertainty on the supply side. The spot market has shown some support recently, driving the near - term disk. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a relatively loose state, and the price pressure still exists. The recent rapeseed meal is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes. After a large decline in the early stage, it has been stable recently, and the spread has stabilized after continuous expansion. If the rapeseed meal supply does not change much, the spread is expected to narrow as the soybean meal supply tightens [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - **Options**: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]. 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit The soybean pressing profit varies by origin, shipping date, and contract. For example, the Brazilian 2 - month contract has a current disk pressing profit of 99.77 and a spot pressing profit of 228.77, with a profit change of 23.44 compared to yesterday [10].

镍期货市场：美指下跌提振资金加速流入基本金属全线上涨，隔夜伦镍收涨2.12%；伦镍最新收盘报 18075，比前一交易日上涨375美元/吨，涨幅为2.12%，成交15514手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍弱势震 荡，尾盘小幅收涨，沪镍主力合约2602最新收报141520元/吨，下跌60元/吨，跌幅为0.04%； 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月12日伦镍库存报284562吨，较前一交易日库存量减少228吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2602合约开盘报145000涨3420元，9：20分沪镍主力 2602合约报140840跌740；沪期镍开盘高开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，当前镍价承压，核心在 于宏观与地缘两大支撑动能同步减弱。一方面，市场对主要央行政策独立性的疑虑抑制了整体风险偏 好，而资金正从大宗商品等传统领域流向科技成长赛道，导致金属市场的流动性支撑削弱。另一方面， 此前推升价格的关键地缘风险溢价正在消退，特别是非洲资源地区的紧张局势出现缓和迹象，显著降低 了供应链中断的担忧。宏观情绪退潮与供应风险缓释形成共振，共同加剧了镍价的下行压力。 供应端压力增大：全球显性库存持续累积至高位，构成了对价格的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily insights and forecasts for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and geopolitical events. For example, due to geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices are affected, which in turn impacts the cost and price trends of related chemical products [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aromatics and Polyester - related Products - **PX**: Expected to be in a high - level unilateral shock market. Although the supply is gradually becoming more abundant, the cost support from oil prices and the attention from macro funds keep it short - term strong. Suggestions include paying attention to positive spread arbitrage of monthly spreads and hedging by going long on PX and short on PTA [11]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Future supply and demand are both weak, but currently, with high processing fees and low inventory, the price remains firm. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, and go long on SC and short on PTA [12]. - **MEG**: Short - term rebound is expected. Although the demand from polyester is declining, the supply pressure is relieved due to factors such as the impact of the naphtha consumption tax policy on oil - based plants and overseas device shutdowns. It is suggested to close short positions [13]. 3.2 Rubber - related Products - **Rubber**: In a wide - range shock state. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the tire enterprise production is different. The overall sales pressure of the tire industry remains [15][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward pressure is gradually increasing. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost [20]. 3.3 Plastic - related Products - **LLDPE**: Some production of standard products has been switched back, and the regional spot replenishment continues. The raw material price is stable, but the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term still exists due to high production capacity and weakening demand [21][22]. - **PP**: The cost support is relatively strong as downstream export rush supports propylene. However, the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.4 Other Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with weak demand and large supply pressure. The future delivery pressure of some contracts is also large [29]. - **Pulp**: In a wide - range shock state. The supply - demand structure of the market has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand is only for rigid needs. Attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends in the futures market [35]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The overall market operation is relatively stable, but the demand support is gradually weakening, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [38]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level shock state. The spot price is fluctuating slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the upstream inventory clearance rhythm and freight changes [44]. - **Urea**: Short - term callback is expected, but it is strong in the medium - term. The inventory has a small increase, and the demand is improving, but the short - term downstream resistance is increasing [47][48]. - **Styrene**: In a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to go short at high prices. The medium - term driving force is weak due to factors such as the weakening of overseas blending oil drive [50][51]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The futures price has a small increase, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively stable [54]. - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by factors such as CP paper price changes and device maintenance plans [63]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price is affected by the supply - demand relationship in the market and the operation rate of related devices [58]. - **PVC**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [66]. - **Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, but there is still support below. The low - sulfur fuel oil has entered a shock state, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is continuously rebounding [69][70]. 3.5 Shipping - related Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin opening guidance, and a light - position short - selling trial can be made for the 04 contract. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity changes, demand fluctuations caused by export tax - rebate policies, and geopolitical situations [80][81][82]. 3.6 Fiber - related Products - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on TA and short on PF [88]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the long - short spread position of monthly spreads [89]. 3.7 Paper - related Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The market price is stable, but the downstream demand is limited, and the production and sales situation is not good [91]. 3.8 Benzene - related Products - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is increasing, and the market price has risen, but the post - price increase trading volume is general [96][97].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will experience high - level fluctuations, and investors should be vigilant about price corrections, focusing on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate reached the daily limit at 156,060 yuan/ton yesterday, with the limit - down order volume remaining above 20,000 lots, trading volume of 68,500 lots, and open interest slightly decreasing to 506,700 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the warehouse receipts slightly increased to 25,970 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract narrowed to - 4,060 yuan/ton [2]. - The sharp price increase significantly affected the spot market sentiment. Upstream lithium salt producers were more willing to sell and quote, and some quotes were higher than the futures price. Downstream procurement and inquiry activities increased, and the proportion of spot purchases in long - term contract negotiations increased compared to last year. The market generally expects the price to continue rising [2]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material price increased by more than 9% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month, with a slight decline in the operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes, and a slight increase in the operating rates of lithium mica and recycling. The total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [3]. - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory depletion. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while the sales and penetration rate of SMM new energy vehicles reached new highs, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing signs of inventory accumulation for the first time, and the total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [3]. Policy Impact - In 2026, the subsidy for automobile trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of energy - storage during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were used to stabilize price fluctuations [3]. - On January 4, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened the constraints on the supply side, which may intensify the supply shortage in the short term. On January 9, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - rebate policy, which may trigger a rush for export demand in the short term [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Macro remains strong, with the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosting risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthening demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - Zinc: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - Tin: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - Lithium carbonate: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market No relevant content provided. 02. Forecast of This Week's Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the slowdown in US non - farm employment growth in December exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate declined, boosting confidence in the economy avoiding recession. Fundamentally, domestic bauxite is in short supply in the north, and alumina plants' willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is weak due to the continuous decline in alumina prices. The domestic bauxite price is expected to decline further. The import bauxite market has a divergence in the intended prices of buyers and sellers, with overall sluggish transactions. However, the long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas supports future supply. Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, showing a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression", and high aluminum prices are the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and industry operating rate recovery [11]. - Viewpoint: Macro remains strong, and the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosts risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthens demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated at high levels. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat week - on - week, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 6.25 US dollars per dry ton. In January, the window for importing zinc concentrates in China remained open, and smelters' enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc concentrates decreased. The decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, and it will take time for processing fees to rebound. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 49.90%. In terms of inventory, after the New Year's Day holiday, the center of zinc prices shifted significantly upward, and die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was low, resulting in a decrease in raw material inventories and an obvious accumulation of finished product inventories. Terminal orders weakened, and new orders from enterprises were mostly concentrated on rigid - demand purchases. In addition, the price difference between copper and aluminum increased significantly, the zinc - aluminum price difference narrowed, and the zinc - copper price difference widened, leading to an increase in processing fees by die - casting zinc alloy enterprises [13]. - Viewpoint: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - **Tin** - Logic: In November, the shortage of raw materials eased, with an increase in the import volume of tin concentrates from Myanmar and Congo (Kinshasa). The operating rate of domestic smelting enterprises remained at the current level, with limited probability of further increase. The downstream semiconductor market is stable, but industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances are gradually entering the off - season. Recently, the sharp increase in tin prices is mainly due to the significant increase in the risk appetite of the metal market led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the price volatility of tin has increased significantly [14]. - Viewpoint: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Logic: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract fluctuated significantly in the range, with the main contract rising 17.96% week - on - week to 143,420 yuan per ton. The spot price also increased. On the supply side, raw material prices rose sharply, the operating rate decreased slightly but production increased slightly, and there were significant differences in production processes. On the demand side, the production of cathode materials and power cells decreased slightly, but inventories were depleted, and the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles supported demand. In terms of inventory, the total inventory increased slightly, with significant differences in different links. In terms of cost and profit, the whole industry chain turned profitable, and the profit elasticity of lithium mica was high. Macroeconomic policies formed synergistic benefits, and short - term regulatory tightening measures were taken [15]. - Viewpoint: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 620 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 550 yuan per ton, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 67.61 US dollars per ton in the week of January 9, down 0.74 US dollars week - on - week and 40.65 US dollars year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 4.0423 million tons in the week of January 9, down 483,800 tons week - on - week and 186,500 tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 5.8804 million tons, up 1.1296 million tons week - on - week and 2.5927 million tons year - on - year [25]. - **Alumina** - Price, Cost, and Profit: The domestic price in Henan was 2,670 yuan per ton in the week of January 12, down 20 yuan week - on - week and 2,610 yuan year - on - year; the full cost was 2,714.3 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 59.6 yuan week - on - week and 734 yuan year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 171.67 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 27.14 yuan week - on - week and down 2,036.16 yuan year - on - year [28]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Total Cost: The total cost was 16,197.37 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 59.19 yuan week - on - week and down 5,054.46 yuan year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was 90 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 150 yuan week - on - week and 30 yuan year - on - year [30]. - **Downstream Processing of Electrolytic Aluminum** - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables was 59.6 in the week of January 8, up 2 week - on - week and down 0.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.7, up 1.4 week - on - week and down 3.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips was 65, up 2 week - on - week and down 1.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 48.8, down 1.9 week - on - week and up 13.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, down 0.2 week - on - week and up 3.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58, down 2 week - on - week and up 4.9 year - on - year [36][37]. - **Inventory** - Bonded - area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 41,000 tons in the week of January 8, up 2,700 tons week - on - week and down 3,800 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 55,400 tons, up 1,200 tons week - on - week and 1,400 tons year - on - year [42]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory was 730,000 tons in the week of January 12, up 46,000 tons week - on - week and 271,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - Weekly Outbound Volume of Aluminum Ingots in Major Consumption Areas: The weekly outbound volume was 66,100 tons in the week of January 5, down 33,500 tons week - on - week and 59,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - SHFE Inventory: The SHFE inventory was 143,828 tons in the week of January 9, up 14,010 tons week - on - week and down 34,646 tons year - on - year [43]. - LME Inventory: The LME inventory was 497,825 tons in the week of January 8, down 11,425 tons week - on - week and 121,450 tons year - on - year [43]. - **Spot and Basis** - Spot: SMM A00 aluminum [46]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was - 425 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 65 yuan week - on - week and down 210 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 300 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan week - on - week and down 25 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 390 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan week - on - week and down 85 yuan year - on - year [49]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Aluminum** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 125 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 100 yuan week - on - week and 130 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was 35 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week and 150 yuan year - on - year [50]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and Processing Fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 20,755 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 12, up 135 yuan week - on - week and 657 yuan year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,500 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 450 yuan year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 37.5 US dollars per dry ton, down 6.25 US dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 7,668 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, up 598 yuan week - on - week and 42 yuan year - on - year; the import profit and loss was 398.7 yuan per ton, up 419.85 yuan week - on - week and 142 yuan year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 110,000 physical tons in the week of January 9, down 20,000 tons week - on - week and up 10,000 tons year - on - year [61]. - **Refined Zinc Inventory** - Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 118,300 tons in the week of January 12, up 3,500 tons week - on - week and 57,300 tons year - on - year [65]. - Bonded - area Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The bonded - area inventory was 3,300 tons in the week of January 8, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 2,200 tons year - on - year [65]. - SHFE Refined Zinc Inventory: The SHFE refined zinc inventory was 73,852 tons in the week of January 9, up 4,059 tons week - on - week and 52,812 tons year - on - year [65]. - LME Zinc Inventory: The LME zinc inventory was 107,450 tons in the week of January 8, up 1,125 tons week - on - week and down 109,450 tons year - on - year [65]. - **Galvanized** - Production: The production was 313,970 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,510 tons week - on - week and 4,520 tons year - on - year [69]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate was 54.39 in the week of January 8, up 1.41 week - on - week and 0.67 year - on - year [69]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory was 12,480 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,485 tons week - on - week and 1,335 tons year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 373,000 tons, up 10,100 tons week - on - week and down 20,300 tons year - on - year [69]. - **Basis of Zinc: SMM 0 Zinc Ingot** - Spot: SMM 0 zinc ingot [70]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was 110 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 190 yuan week - on - week and down 325 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was 60 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan week - on - week and down 565 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 20 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week and 720 yuan year - on - year [73]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Zinc** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 50 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 175 yuan week - on - week and 240 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 130 yuan per ton, down 195 yuan week - on - week and 395 yuan year - on - year [74]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.3362 million tons in the week of January 9, down 0.003 million tons week - on - week and up 0.0337 million tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 69.38% in the week of January 9, down 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and up 6.96 percentage points year - on - year [83]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory** - SHFE Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 6,935 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,001 tons week - on - week and up 582 tons year - on - year [86]. - Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in China by Region: The social inventory of tin ingots in China by region was 7,478 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,042 tons week -