Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up significantly due to the long holiday. The supply-demand pattern remains bearish, and it is advisable to continue the short-selling strategy during rebounds [1]. - Glass production and sales are sluggish, and the market price continues to be weak. The current trading reflects the logic of a disappointing peak season and fundamental oversupply. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [1]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase overseas, with raw material prices falling and weak cost support. The demand is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main producing areas [4]. Logs - There is no obvious driving force in the current log supply and demand. The near-month 11 contract has insufficient willingness of long positions to take delivery, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable, with supply pressure increasing and prices potentially under pressure. However, if the spot is firm, there is strong support below. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained stable or decreased slightly, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts falling by 1.02% and 0.59% respectively [1]. - Soda ash: The prices in North China, East China, and Central China remained stable, while the price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%. The 2505 and 2509 contracts fell by 0.15% and 0.38% respectively [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The weekly output was 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37% [1]. - Glass: The float glass daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16% [1]. Inventory - Glass: The factory inventory was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 3.74%, and the delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area: -0.09%, an increase of 0.09% [1]. - Construction area: 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43% [1]. - Completion area: -0.22%, a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - Sales area: -6.55%, a decrease of 6.50% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of most varieties increased slightly, with the basis of Yunnan state-owned whole milk rubber decreasing by 8.40% [4]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 50.00% [4]. Fundamental Data - Production: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, while China's production increased [4]. - Tire Production and Exports: The domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% [4]. - Import Volume: The import volume of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [4]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.68% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 contract of logs increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 6, and the arrival volume increased by 200,500 cubic meters [6]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume decreased by 83,000 cubic meters [6]. Inventory - As of October 10, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis decreased [7]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts showed different trends, with the 2510 - 2511 spread increasing by 400.00% [7]. Fundamental Data - Production: The national industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, with significant increases in Xinjiang and Yunnan [7]. -开工率: The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, with significant increases in Xinjiang [7]. Inventory Changes - The factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, and the social inventory increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of most varieties remained stable, and the basis of N - type silicon decreased by 31.70% [8]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract increased by 1.75%, and the spreads between different contracts showed different trends [8]. Fundamental Data - Production: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, while the monthly production of silicon wafers increased [8]. - Import and Export: The import volume of polysilicon decreased, and the export volume increased [8]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [8].

Core Insights - The recent economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics signal positive trends in China's economy, with both CPI and PPI showing signs of recovery [1][2] Demand Side Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from flat to rising, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] - The core CPI's consistent growth over five months reflects an increase in consumer willingness to spend, suggesting healthy growth in overall economic demand [3][4] Supply Side Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating a steady recovery in domestic demand [4] - The improvement in PPI is linked to enhanced supply-side dynamics, with price declines in certain sectors like black and non-ferrous metals slowing down, while prices for consumer goods such as nutritional foods are rising [4][5] Economic Balance and Future Outlook - The interplay between rising CPI and narrowing PPI reflects a preliminary success in achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand [5] - Continued macroeconomic policies are essential for maintaining this balance, with expectations of sustained growth in GDP, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade contributing to a more robust economic outlook for China [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights positive signals from two major economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating resilience in China's economy during its transformation [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from flat to rising month-on-month, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a narrowing year-on-year decline, further validating the steady recovery of domestic demand [4] Group 2 - Demand is a key driver of the economy, with the CPI reflecting consumer-related price changes. The core CPI's continuous increase over five months indicates a healthy growth in total demand [3][5] - The PPI's performance is closely tied to the strength of demand, with improvements in market competition and price stabilization in certain industries, indicating a recovery in supply-side activity [4][5] - The overall economic growth in China is supported by coordinated efforts across consumption recovery, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade, suggesting a more robust foundation for future growth [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment ratings: Not provided - Core view: The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and relevant news events [4][7][12] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased positions by 5,047 lots to 556,300 lots [2] - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper rebounded to 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Guangdong inventory increased for 5 consecutive days, and the consumption was poor, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The North China spot market remained sluggish, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - Freeport McMoRan plans to exit the benchmark pricing system for global copper ore sales to protect smelter profitability due to the historically low benchmark TC/RC fees in 2025 [3] Logic Analysis - Macro: The US employment market cooled, and Powell hinted at a possible rate cut and an end to balance - sheet reduction. Fundamentals: Multiple mines reduced production, and the supply of copper mines tightened. The consumption was weak, but the purchase demand might increase after price corrections [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a "buy on dips" strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold inter - market positive spreads and arrange inter - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. - Options: Wait and see [7] Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 2,797 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [9] Relevant Information - Some aluminum plants made procurement, and the production of some alumina enterprises was affected by factors such as ore shortage and strikes [10][11] Logic Analysis - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream stockpiling, but the surplus trend remained. The price was expected to be volatile and weak before the supply - demand pattern improved [12] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15][16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 20 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and Powell's speech on the economy and monetary policy, and the export and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum [18] Trading Logic - The impact of the US tariff policy upgrade on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The medium - term upward trend of aluminum prices remained unchanged, and the consumption showed resilience [19] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not change the medium - term upward trend. Wait and see in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions were mostly stable [21] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and the inventory data of recycled aluminum alloy ingots [21] Trading Logic - The impact of the tariff policy upgrade on aluminum - based products was expected to be less severe. The global aluminum supply - demand remained in a shortage pattern after re - balancing, and the fundamentals provided some support [23] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not affect the medium - term upward trend. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [24] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 1.17% to 22,015 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index increased by 675 lots to 210,700 lots. - Spot: The trading volume did not improve significantly [26] Relevant Information - The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of refined zinc [28] Logic Analysis - The supply in China increased significantly, while the consumption did not improve. The price of LME zinc was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [28] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may fluctuate more violently. Short positions can be arranged at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27][31] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 0.15% to 17,110 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 886 lots to 84,500 lots. - Spot: The downstream demand was for rigid replenishment, and the trading was average [30] Relevant Information - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of lead [31] Logic Analysis - The current supply - demand of lead was weak, but the supply was weaker. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, but there was a risk of a decline in the future [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may decline from high levels. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 increased by 100 to 121,180 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 5,896 lots. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36] Relevant Information - A fire occurred in an Indonesian nickel processing plant, and the Indonesian nickel - iron market was under pressure [37] Logic Analysis - The fire had no impact on production. The supply - demand of refined nickel was basically flat, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The nickel price was under pressure [37] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [38][39][41] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 30 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 174 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [43] Important Information - Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on stainless steel cold - rolled products from Vietnam [44] Logic Analysis - The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the demand was restricted. The price was under pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [44] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [45][46] Group 10: Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, decreased by 430 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and the position increased by 632 lots to 65,742 lots. - Spot: The spot price decreased, and the trading was average [48] Relevant Information - The global semiconductor sales increased, and the production of domestic tin smelters changed [49][50] Logic Analysis - The Fed hinted at a rate cut, the supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption [52] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production. - Options: Wait and see [53][54] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Important Information - A South Korean company will acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [55] Logic Analysis - The production of industrial silicon was affected by power plant maintenance and factory shutdowns. The demand was strong in the short term, but there might be a slight surplus in November. The price was expected to be range - bound [57] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Avoid long positions. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: None [58][59][60] Group 12: Polysilicon Important Information - The magazine emphasized the importance of stabilizing market expectations and introducing favorable policies [62] Logic Analysis - The production of polysilicon increased in October, but the demand weakened. The price was expected to break through new highs in the medium - to - long term, and long positions could be held in the short term [63] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Hold long positions. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3500, - 3300). - Options: Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, stop - profit and exit the put option, and continue to hold the call option [64][65][66] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 220 to 72,940 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,780 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2,104 to 33,076 tons. - Spot: The spot prices remained unchanged [69] Important Information - Tesla's factory increased production, and China's new - energy vehicle sales increased [70] Logic Analysis - The supply of lithium carbonate was uncertain, and the demand was strong. The price was expected to be strong and volatile in the current range [71] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Treat the price as strong and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [72]

Group 1 - The domestic zinc market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for Shanghai zinc futures opening at 22,020.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 22,070.00 CNY and a low of 21,915.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.17% [1] - According to Zhengxin Futures, there is a tendency for oversupply in the zinc market due to stable demand and increasing supply, although the realization of this oversupply depends on the transmission from the mining sector to the smelting sector, which will take time for internal adjustments [1] - Five Minerals Futures noted that domestic zinc smelting enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, while most downstream zinc enterprises also operated normally, with some zinc alloy companies taking longer breaks [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures indicated that the domestic demand peak season is not strong, advising cautious holding of previous short positions and recommending selling hedges to lock in profits, with a medium to long-term bearish outlook on zinc due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [2] - The focus for Shanghai zinc is on the range of 21,800 to 22,400 CNY/ton, while for London zinc, the range is set at 2,900 to 3,000 USD/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the daily performance of various non - ferrous metals on October 14, 2025, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with analysis of market trends, relevant information, trading logic, and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Review Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 14,799 lots to 551,300 lots. The spot market showed different trends in different regions [2]. Alumina - The Alumina 2601 contract fell 20 yuan to 2,805 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a general downward trend [10]. Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract remained unchanged at 20,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2511 fell 0.29% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced its position by 2,545 lots to 210,000 lots. The spot market had high - price quotes but poor trading volume [30]. Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2511 fell 0.61% to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased its position by 874 lots to 83,600 lots. The spot price of lead decreased [35]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell 820 to 120,830 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 10,910 lots. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [41]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 120 to 12,565 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,815 lots. The spot market prices were stable [49]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 280,430 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan/ton or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 1,121 lots to 65,110 lots. The spot price decreased [56]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell. Spot prices of different grades and downstream product prices showed different trends [88]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon fell. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related photovoltaic product prices changed [89]. Lithium Carbonate - The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract rose 240 to 72,760 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 16,830 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. Group 3: Relevant Information Copper - Grasberg has been shut down for nearly a month due to an accident, and its copper concentrate supply may only last until the end of this month. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper production increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter [3]. Alumina - There were multiple spot transactions in different regions. The national alumina production capacity and operation situation were reported, and the production of an enterprise in Shanxi was affected by ore shortages [11]. Aluminum - Trump planned to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1. China implemented export controls on rare - earth items. China's aluminum exports in September 2025 and the cumulative exports from January to September decreased year - on - year [18]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory increased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global refined zinc supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [31]. Lead - The domestic lead inventory decreased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global lead supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [36]. Nickel - A copper - nickel ore exploration right in Gansu was put up for auction. The LME planned to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal trading [42]. Stainless Steel - The EU planned to implement a trade policy on stainless steel, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese cold - rolled stainless steel [50]. Tin - A Fed official supported two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Peru's tin exports in August and Indonesia's tin exports in September were reported [57]. Industrial Silicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [61]. Polysilicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The polysilicon production and demand situation in October was reported [68]. Lithium Carbonate - A company in Qinghai resumed lithium resource development. BYD's battery installation volume in September 2025 increased year - on - year. A company responded to the battery export control policy. CATL refuted rumors about solid - state battery production [76]. Group 4: Trading Logic Copper - Trump's tariff statement and subsequent easing signals affected the market. The supply of copper mines was tight, and the consumption showed a weakening trend [4]. Alumina - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream inventory, but the surplus trend remained. The profit of alumina factories was affected, and the production dynamics needed attention [13]. Aluminum - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The global aluminum supply - demand balance was not significantly affected [20]. Zinc - The domestic zinc supply increased, and the consumption was weak. The overseas market was strong, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [32]. Lead - The current lead supply - demand was weak, but the supply was weaker. The lead price was expected to rise and then fall due to the expected increase in supply in the second half of October [38]. Nickel - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic nickel enterprises had high export enthusiasm. The nickel price was in a shock range, and the Sino - US situation needed attention [43]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel production in October increased, but the demand was restricted. The social inventory increased slightly, and the price was under pressure [51]. Tin - The market was waiting for the development of Trump's tariff threat. The supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering [58]. Industrial Silicon - The production in Xinjiang was affected, and the production in the southwest was expected to decrease in November. The demand was strong in the short term, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the medium term [63]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production increased in October, and the demand was weak. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November was the core driving factor for the price adjustment [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading volume of lithium carbonate was low, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the current range. The Sino - US situation needed attention [76]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short - term consolidation was needed, and a long - at - low strategy was recommended. Arbitrage: Hold the inter - market positive arbitrage and arrange the inter - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: The price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [16]. Aluminum - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend remained after the short - term panic - driven decline. Wait and see in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [21]. Zinc - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opening of the export window and arrange short positions at high prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [33]. Lead - Unilateral: The lead price was expected to rise due to inventory reduction but may fall due to increased supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - Unilateral: Maintain a wide - range shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [45]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: The price was expected to decline in a shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see [52]. Tin - Unilateral: Short - term high - level shock, pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Buy at the lower end of the range and hold previous long positions. Arbitrage: None. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Try long positions near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Arbitrage: Hold the reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Options: Adjust the previous double - buy strategy, stop profit on the put option and hold the call option [70]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [77].

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with 17 contracts rising and 61 contracts falling today, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2][5]. Key Contract Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (European line) at 2512 (+7.36%), Shanghai gold at 2512 (+2.70%), and Shanghai silver at 2512 (+2.64%), driven significantly by supply and demand factors [6]. - The largest declines were seen in canola at 2511 (-5.32%), glass at 2601 (-3.40%), and methanol at 2601 (-2.61%), likely influenced by increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into the CSI 500 at 2512 (1.478 billion), 30-year treasury bonds at 2512 (588 million), and 10-year treasury bonds at 2512 (454 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [9]. - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from Shanghai gold at 2512 (-2.266 billion), Shanghai copper at 2511 (-1.347 billion), and Shanghai silver at 2512 (-1.347 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds from these assets [9]. Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were observed in peanut at 2601 (+29.12%), cotton yarn at 2601 (+20.39%), and short fiber at 2512 (+19.91%), indicating a high level of trading activity and potential new capital entering these markets [10]. - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were seen in corn at 2511 (-13.17%), eggs at 2511 (-13.97%), and silicon iron at 2511 (-23.55%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds and warranting attention for future performance [10]. Key Events and Impacts - Indonesia is considering regulating palm oil exports to meet domestic biodiesel demand, which may lead to a reduction in global edible oil supply as exports decrease [11]. - Silver has outperformed gold this year, with a price increase of over 80% compared to gold's 57%, driven by investor demand and industrial usage [12][13]. - Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil have increased, with total iron ore stock at Chinese ports rising by 171.18 million tons, indicating a trend of increased supply [14]. Industry Insights - A new regulatory document on solar photovoltaic capacity control is expected to be released soon, aiming to balance supply and demand in the industry [15]. - The U.S. may lose 16 million tons of soybean orders if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, highlighting the impact of trade dynamics on agricultural exports [16]. - Indonesia's Freeport may suspend operations at the Manyar smelter due to a shortage of copper concentrate, affecting supply chains in the copper market [16]. Future Focus - Upcoming data releases include China's September CPI and global metal market supply-demand conditions, which are expected to influence market expectations and trading strategies [19][24].

华宝期货 2025.10.13 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CONOMO: 010 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3103 | 3072 | 31 | 1.01% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 0.00% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2601 | 3285 | 3253 | 32 | 0.98% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3340 | 3330 | 10 | 0.30% | | 铁矿石 | 12601 | 795 | 780.5 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff negotiation rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data leads to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracts non - US copper to the US. In the long - term, copper supply shortage will support the price bottom, but short - term price is affected by demand changes and tariff negotiations [1]. Aluminum - After the holiday, the alumina futures price is under pressure, and the aluminum price fluctuates. The alumina supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The aluminum market is in a tight balance, with high - price suppressing procurement and low inventory levels. The short - term prices of alumina and aluminum are expected to be range - bound [3]. Aluminum Alloy - After the holiday, the casting aluminum alloy futures price strengthens. The cost is supported, but the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. The demand recovers moderately, and the inventory increase slows down. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term zinc price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upward elasticity is limited. It may maintain a range - bound movement unless there are significant changes in demand or supply [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is weak. After the sharp decline of the outer - plate metal, the tin price may fall, but considering the strong fundamentals, it can be considered to buy at low prices after the risk is released. The future price depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [10]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates widely. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the policy expectations of the Indonesian ore end are increasing. The cost is supported, but the medium - term supply is loose. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuates narrowly. The macro - environment is uncertain, the raw material price is firm, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates. The supply path is becoming clear, but the news may bring variables. The demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,680 yuan/ton, up 1.10% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% [1]. - August electrolytic copper import is 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [3]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% [3]. - September electrolytic aluminum production is 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,524 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. Fundamental Data - August recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% [5]. - August primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [8]. - The import profit and loss is - 3,968 yuan/ton, up 199.94 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% [8]. - August refined zinc import is 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 287,400 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore import is 10,267 tons, down 0.11% [10]. - September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,850 yuan/ton, up 0.20% [12]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [12]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% [12]. - Refined nickel import is 17,010 tons, down 3.00% [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The spot - futures price difference is 13,220 yuan/ton, up 2597.96% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) is 187.48 million tons, up 4.42% [13]. - Stainless steel import is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% [14]. - September lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [2] - Silver: Buy on dips [2] - Copper: High-level pullback [2] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [2] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [2] - Tin: Rise and then fall [2] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [2] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [2] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [2] - Polysilicon: Pullback [2] - Lithium carbonate: Wide-range oscillation, buy on dips [2] Core Views - The unexpected cooling of G2 relations, the chaotic situation in Japan, and potential obstacles to the ceasefire in the Middle East have led to a resurgence of short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold can be bought both in the short and long term, and its strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver has short - term fluctuations but long - term upward potential. Copper has short - term pullback pressure but its long - term trend remains intact. Zinc is under short - term pressure and is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term. Other metals also have their own short - and long - term trends and investment suggestions based on various factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Changes in Sino - US relations and the chaotic situation in Japan have led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, making the prices of gold and silver firm [3] Basic Logic - Trump's tariff threat and China's response, along with the political changes in Japan, have increased market uncertainty. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - For gold, the support at 900 is obvious, and a long - position approach can be adopted both in the short and long term. For silver, pay attention to the 10800 support level, and it may be a more prudent strategy to buy on dips. Long - term positions can be held continuously [5] Copper Market Review - Trump's tariff threat has led to a sharp decline in the prices of Shanghai copper and London copper, with prices falling from high levels [7] Industry Logic - Supply concerns have deepened due to the accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia and the slowdown in supply from Chile. The output of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe has reached a record high. Demand from the new energy and high - tech industries remains resilient, but downstream demand is affected by high prices [7] Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, copper prices are under pullback pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan mark. In the long term, copper is still promising as a strategic resource and an alternative to precious metals. The recommended trading ranges are [79,000, 84,000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9900, 10500] US dollars/ton for London copper [8] Zinc Market Review - Zinc prices have fallen under pressure, and London zinc has broken through the 3000 - dollar mark [10] Industry Logic - The domestic and overseas zinc markets show different trends. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the output of zinc ingots is expected to increase. However, demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and export may relieve the shortage of overseas zinc inventory [10] Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, Shanghai zinc is under pressure to fall. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging at high levels. In the medium - to - long term, zinc is a short - side allocation. The recommended trading ranges are [21,800, 22,400] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton for London zinc [11] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and the price of alumina continues to be weak [13] Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, there is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has increased, but downstream demand has shown some improvement. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume, and the market is in an oversupply situation [14] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short term for Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [15] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices are under pressure to rebound, and stainless steel prices are falling [17] Industry Logic - There is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The supply of nickel ore is relatively sufficient, and domestic pure - nickel inventory has increased significantly. The inventory of stainless steel has also increased, and the traditional consumption peak season is yet to be verified [18] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has risen and then fallen, with the late - session gains narrowing [21] Industry Logic - The government has put forward requirements for battery capacity, and the export of lithium batteries is regulated. The weekly output of lithium carbonate has reached a new high this year, and the arrival volume of overseas lithium ore is expected to increase. The production of lithium batteries and cathode materials has remained stable, which will support the price of lithium carbonate [22] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of [72,800 - 74,500] [23]