Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being "oscillating", and some like iron ore having an outlook of "oscillating on the stronger side" [7][9][10][15][19]. Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, industry contradictions are limited. With no new disturbances from the macro and policy fronts, the prices of black building materials sector varieties are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, the possibility of a phased upward movement can be considered [1][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. Southeast Asian hurricanes may disrupt arrival schedules. Demand is weakening seasonally, but the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. After the peak arrival period ends, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side in the short term after a rapid decline [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. Recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure, and leading steel enterprises in East China lowered the price by 30 yuan/ton over the weekend. It is expected that the spot price of scrap steel will follow the decline in the short term [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are resistant to further increases, but coke has strong cost support and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and import supplements are limited. Although the procurement of mid - and downstream enterprises is expected to slow down, coal mine inventories are at a low level in recent years, and there is little possibility of significant inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are expected to remain healthy until the end of the year, and the spot price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term costs strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term cost trends strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward driving force for prices is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][18]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may still be disturbed, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may oscillate weakly; otherwise, it may rise. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: Recently, cost increases and factory shutdowns have led to a rebound in prices. However, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and prices above the industry's high - cost line may face pressure again. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][14][16]. 5. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2254.65, up 0.65%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2552.65, up 0.71%; the Industrial Products Index was 2226.35, up 0.48%; and the PPI Commodity Index was 1346.01, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index rose 0.26% on that day, with a decline of 0.12% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.18% in the past month, and a decline of 5.37% since the beginning of the year [99][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. - For methanol, domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. - For rubber, prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - For polypropylene, although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. - For PTA, supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 4.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.07%, at 461.80 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline, fuel oil, naphtha, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.73 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 3.97% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 30, in Inner Mongolia increased by 7.5, and in southern Shandong decreased by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 2101 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 41. The 1 - 5 spread was - 6, at - 107 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 1660 yuan, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The report previously suggested buying opportunities in rubber, and prices rebounded as expected. There are different views on the market. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Spot prices of some rubber products increased [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 3 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, with a stable basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate increased, and the port inventory decreased. The weighted operating rate of three S decreased, but the PS operating rate increased, while the EPS and ABS operating rates decreased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polyethylene was 6802 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate decreased. The LL1 - 5 spread widened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polypropylene increased by 16 yuan to 6480 yuan, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased. The LL - PP spread narrowed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 72 yuan to 6852 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 5 dollars to 828 dollars. The basis was - 90 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was 24 yuan. The PX operating rate in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted. The PTA operating rate decreased. PX imports from South Korea to China increased in October, and inventory increased at the end of September [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 40 yuan to 4704 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4605 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan. The PTA operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Social inventory increased in October [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 3953 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4003 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall rating of "Weakly Bearish" for the crude oil market [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the crude oil market lies in the game between short - term geopolitical risk support and medium - to long - term supply - demand and macro - level bearish factors. The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market has become fatigued with relevant news, and the support is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and the market shows a characteristic of "falling with the trend but not rising", with the macro and fundamental factors jointly suppressing the market [1] - The near - term trading logic is dominated by the decline in geopolitical sentiment, the approaching spring maintenance of refineries, and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. The short - term trend is weakly bearish. The long - term trend is a downward oscillation due to the rigid supply pressure and limited demand growth [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market's reaction to relevant news is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and combined with economic concerns caused by the US government shutdown, the market shows a "falling with the trend but not rising" characteristic [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestion - The market is in a weakly bearish oscillation. The strategy suggests to short the market when Brent rebounds to $66 - 68 per barrel, with a stop - loss at $70. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information**: Two US B - 52 bombers approached the Venezuelan coast, and the US and Venezuela have tense relations recently [8] - **Bearish Information**: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices for Asian markets in December. The production of Kazakhstan's Karachaganak oilfield has increased by about 15% [9][10] 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - On November 10, 2025, at 24:00, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. As of the ninth working day on November 7, this may provide short - term support for crude oil futures prices [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - This week, international crude oil prices oscillated slightly downward, falling below the short - term moving average. The previous week, the settlement price of the WTI main contract decreased by 2.02%, and that of the Brent main contract decreased by 2.21%. The INE crude oil futures position increased by 1,689 lots week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures position decreased by 65,844 lots week - on - week [14][17] 3.3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $4.37 per barrel. The SC - Brent spread was weakening, and the internal - market crude oil was relatively weaker under the background of OPEC+ production increase [22][23] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC all weakened. The recent spreads have given back most of the risk premiums due to fundamental suppression [25] 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $3.88 per barrel. The spread between SC and Brent has weakened again because the external - market crude oil is more strongly supported by geopolitical risk premiums [30] 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of November 7, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively, while in North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the crack spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [42] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels per day, up 0.7 million barrels per day week - on - week. From November 1 - 7, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 414, unchanged week - on - week [64] 3.5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US refinery crude oil input was 15.256 million barrels per day, up 3.7 million barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 86.0%, down 0.6 percentage points week - on - week. From October 31 - November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese independent refineries was 62.49%, up 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, and that of Chinese major refineries was 78.64%, down 1.86 percentage points week - on - week [66] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 31, US commercial crude oil inventories totaled 421,168 thousand barrels, up 5,202 thousand barrels week - on - week. As of November 5, the Chinese port commercial crude oil inventory index was 106.77, down 1.52% week - on - week [68] 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil exports were 4.367 million barrels per day, up 0.6 million barrels per day week - on - week. The Middle - East seaborne crude oil exports from October 21 - 27 were 16.7283 million barrels per day, up 1.90% week - on - week, while Russian seaborne crude oil exports this week were 3.3723 million barrels per day, down 12.98% week - on - week [70] 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA has continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC has maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The IEA has slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View The supply of coke remains stable at a high level, demand continues to weaken, and the supply-demand pattern is weak, suppressing coke prices. However, the cost support for coke is strong, and the "weak reality" and "high cost" continue to compete. It is expected that coke prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Since mid - October, coke futures and spot prices have risen synchronously. The futures main contract reached a maximum of 1,818.5 yuan/ton, approaching the annual high. Recently, due to weaker market sentiment, the futures price has declined but remains at a relatively high level. The spot price is also strong, with the third round of price increases by coke enterprises implemented, and the cumulative increase in port spot ex - warehouse prices reaching 150 yuan/ton [2] Supply Situation - Coke supply is stable at a high level. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average coke output of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 64.59 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.44%, down 2.17 tons and 2.48 percentage points respectively compared to mid - September. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.21 tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. The combined daily average output of steel mills and coking plants was 110.80 tons, down 2.27% from the previous high. However, due to poor profitability of coke enterprises and production restrictions in some areas, short - term supply is difficult to increase significantly [3] Demand Situation - Coke demand continues to weaken. Although steel demand has rebounded during the peak season, it has not alleviated the contradictions in the steel industry. With production restrictions, steel mills have increased production cuts, and the demand for raw materials such as coke has continued to decline. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236.36 tons, declining for five consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills was 45.02%, declining for 12 consecutive weeks with a cumulative decline of 23.38 percentage points [4] Cost Support - Rising coal prices have continuously increased the production cost of coke, providing strong support for its price. As of the week ending October 31, the approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.78%, and the daily average raw coal output was 190.33 tons, down 1.72 percentage points and 3.80 tons respectively compared to the end of September. Low supply has led to continuous depletion of coking coal inventory, and the current raw coal and clean coal inventories have reached new lows. The low - supply state of domestic coking coal is expected to continue, and with low inventory, coking coal prices are relatively firm [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is average, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are running weakly, iron ore prices face downward pressure but are difficult to show a trend direction in the short - term, coking coal prices are oscillating, and power coal prices are rising [1][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3,024 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,253 yuan/ton, continuing the weak oscillation. The overall performance of spot steel transactions was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.39 tons, still maintaining a low trading volume [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The cost - side support for rebar remains, and the policy side needs further observation. Under the current fundamentals, the futures market will continue the weak oscillation pattern. The consumption of hot - rolled coils still has certain resilience. The iron water flows to hot - rolled coils, so the production is at a relatively high level. Since steel mills currently have profits, their willingness to reduce production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production reduction of steel mills increases, and there are also environmental protection restrictions in the north from time to time [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The enthusiasm of traders to offer was average, and the quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 1.088 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.53%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 107.62% [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at ports rebounded significantly, a month - on - month increase of 58.6%. The current overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing from tight balance to looseness. The iron ore price faces downward pressure, but it is difficult to show a trend direction in the short - term under the support of downstream restocking demand. With the loss and production reduction of steel mills, the resilience of the demand side of iron ore has loosened, and the iron ore price faces correction pressure. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and downstream inventory changes in the future [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures markets showed an oscillating and sorting trend, with obvious price differentiation between contracts. The closing prices of the main contracts of coking coal and coke both declined slightly. For imported Mongolian coking coal, the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded rapidly, the quotes fluctuate and adjust with the futures market, the trading volume is average, and the market is mostly in a cautious wait - and - see state [4] Logic and Viewpoints - For coking coal, the domestic mine supply has not fully recovered, but the recent rapid rebound of Mongolian coking coal customs clearance volume has a certain impact on the short - term price. From the perspective of inventory, the inventory at all links in the industry is at a medium - low level, and the coking coal inventory is significantly lower than the same period last year, which supports the market fundamentals to maintain resilience. The market's expectation of the subsequent rise of raw material prices continues to increase. The continuous rise of thermal coal spot prices further strengthens the support for coking coal prices. For coke, the supply has shrunk, the third round of price increase is still in progress, and the downstream steel enterprises on the demand side still mainly purchase for rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the new round of coke price increase, the steel mills' production reduction plans, and the recovery progress of coking coal supply [5] Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5] Power Coal Market Analysis - In the production areas, the coal prices are still strong, and the supply is still tight. With the railway transportation discount again, the platforms and traders are actively pulling and transporting, and the miners' inventory has been at a low level for a long time. Miners are optimistic about the future price increase recently, believing that the supply - demand mismatch is difficult to change in the short - term. At the ports, the port transactions are still mainly long - term agreements. Affected by the upstream price increase, the traders' quotes remain high, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. Currently, it is difficult to find low - priced coal at the ports, the inventory accumulation is less than expected, the downstream demand is good, and the short - term price will mainly rise. In terms of imports, the recent import coal market has been actively tendering, the domestic - foreign price difference is large, there is a certain profit in imported coal, and the center of the recently awarded bid prices has also risen [6] Demand and Logic - Affected by the tight supply in the production areas, the short - term price will oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, but the winter heating peak season is coming, and the non - power demand of the downstream is strong. Attention should be paid to the overall consumption and restocking situation in the future [6] Strategy - No strategy provided [6]

Core Insights - Since mid-October, both coking coal futures and spot prices have risen, with futures reaching a peak of 1818.5 yuan/ton, approaching the year's high. However, recent market sentiment has weakened, leading to a price pullback while remaining at relatively high levels [1] - Coking coal supply remains stable at high levels, with average daily production at 645,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 73.44%. Despite a slight decrease in production, the overall supply remains robust due to downstream steel mills' restocking and decent shipment conditions from coking enterprises [2] - Coking coal demand continues to weaken, with average daily pig iron production dropping to 2,363,600 tons, marking a five-week decline. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, with only 45.02% of mills reporting profits, a drop of 23.38 percentage points over 12 weeks [3] Supply Dynamics - Coking coal supply is stabilizing at high levels, with production costs rising due to increasing coking coal prices. Despite price hikes by coking enterprises, profitability remains poor, with 64% of coking enterprises reporting losses [2][5] - The average daily production of coking coal is 1,903,300 tons, with a utilization rate of 84.78%. The low supply has led to a decrease in coal inventories, with raw coal inventory at 4,316,100 tons, down 122,600 tons from the previous month [5][8] Demand Trends - The demand for coking coal is declining, exacerbated by production cuts in steel mills. The overall steel industry remains under pressure, with high inventory levels and significant de-stocking pressure [3] - Despite a seasonal uptick in steel demand, it has not alleviated the underlying issues within the steel industry, leading to a continued decline in coking coal demand [3] Price Outlook - The coking coal market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, which is expected to exert downward pressure on coking coal prices. However, strong cost support from rising production costs may lead to a range-bound price movement [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weak, leading to a decline in the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets. For industrial silicon, the current low valuation may present an opportunity for price increases if relevant policies are introduced. For polysilicon, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with limited upside potential and expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [3][7]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,130 yuan/ton and closed at 8,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 210 yuan/ton (- 2.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 242,153 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In November, the supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices resume production, while demand shows no significant change, resulting in an oversupply situation. Although the cost of industrial silicon has been oscillating slightly upward recently, it can only provide short - term support for the price of DMC and cannot drive a substantial price rebound [1][2]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6% [1]. Strategy - The intraday correction was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Production cuts started in the southwest at the end of October, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is currently oscillating based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If relevant policies on capacity exit are introduced, there may be room for price increases. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 56,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 3.91% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 128,876 lots (143,844 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 274,348 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. In October, the polysilicon production was about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [4][5]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure. Both supply and demand may decrease starting in November. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. It is expected that relevant policies will be introduced this year. Without significant improvement in consumer demand, the upside potential of the futures market is limited, and it is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has poor sentiment, and steel prices continue to decline. The iron ore market has weakening demand expectations, and prices are oscillating downward. The coking coal and coke market has average sentiment, and prices are oscillating downward. The动力煤 market has prices rising, with short - term upward momentum [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3265 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel trading was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.27 tons. The trading volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the North and South increased slightly [1]. - Supply and demand logic: The cost of rebar still provides support, and there is a possibility of more favorable policies. The profit of hot - rolled coil is better than that of rebar, so the output is relatively high. As steel mills have profits, the willingness to cut production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production cuts by steel mills increases, and there are occasional environmental protection restrictions in the North [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 146.1 tons, a 12.99% increase from the previous period; the forward - looking spot trading volume was 72.2 tons, a 22.57% decrease [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The arrival volume of iron ore this week increased significantly by 58.6%. The overall iron ore valuation is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening and generally loose, and the ore price is under downward pressure. However, supported by downstream restocking demand, there is no clear trend in the short term. With steel mills' loss - driven production cuts, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and the price faces correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The black commodity sector oscillated weakly, and the closing prices of coking coal and coke futures both declined slightly. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal continued to rise to a high level, and the trading atmosphere was average, with downstream players mainly in a wait - and - see mode [5]. - Logic and view: For coking coal, due to safety inspections, the supply in some producing areas has not fully recovered, and the overall output is low, with the supply shortage pressure not significantly alleviated. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, but the expectation of a new round of coke price increases has risen, and the inventory - building willingness of some enterprises has increased. For coke, affected by the rising coal price, coke enterprises are still operating at a loss, and some have maintenance plans, so the supply has contracted to some extent. On the demand side, the price of finished steel has declined recently, and the profit of steel mills has shrunk significantly, but the market's expectation of rising raw material prices has increased, and the procurement plan has increased compared with before, providing some support for the coke price [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating [6]. - Coke: Oscillating [6]. 动力煤 Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, the coal price is still strong. Affected by safety inspections, the supply is tight. Downstream procurement is active, and the inventory of coal mines is decreasing. Miners believe that due to safety inspections and heating demand, the supply - demand mismatch will continue, and the price is difficult to decline in the short term. At ports, affected by the rising upstream prices, the quoted prices are firm, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand and is resistant to high - priced coal. Although railway transportation has increased and port inventory has accumulated, the accumulation rate is low. With the continuous price increase of upstream coal mines, the arrival cost has risen, so there is a shortage of low - priced coal resources, and the price will continue to rise in the short term. In the import market, the price is also strong, and the price difference between domestic and imported coal is still large, so imported coal still has an advantage [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by the situation in the producing areas, the price will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern, but with the approaching of the winter heating season, attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. Strategy - No strategy provided [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The取值 range of trend strength is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]. Report's Core View - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline. With ample supply, downstream support is limited, and the short - term market expectation is bearish. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are downward, and the spot price center is gradually moving down. The cost reduction of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern of cis - butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of price - profit contraction. With weak macro - driving and weak industrial chain fundamentals, cis - butadiene rubber is in a weak operation. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of cis - butadiene rubber will improve in November [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the 12 - contract of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 10,360 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 31,566 hands to 149,850 hands, the open interest decreased by 3,695 hands to 37,796 hands, and the trading volume increased by 150,980 ten - thousand yuan to 782,908 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene minus the futures main contract increased by 125 to 340, the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 increased by 30 to 65. The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene (private) decreased by 200 - 250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,700 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 - 255 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 67.2943%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene decreased by 309 yuan/ton to 9,916 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 191 yuan/ton to 584 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - **Butadiene Market**: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline. Due to ample supply, the support from downstream demand is limited. The short - term market expectation is bearish. The delivery price in Shandong's Luzhong area is about 7,090 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is about 6,900 - 7,100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of October 29, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports is about 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in sample ports has significantly increased due to the arrival of imported ships and the accumulation of some trade inventories. Merchants expect the import volume in November to remain ample [2][3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term weakness of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are downward, and the spot price center is gradually moving down. The cost reduction of butadiene leads to an obvious expansion of the processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern of cis - butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of price - profit contraction. With weak macro - driving and weak industrial chain fundamentals, cis - butadiene rubber is in a weak operation. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of cis - butadiene rubber will improve in November [3].