美债暴跌：流动性危机来了吗 20250409 摘要 2025-04-11 • 美债收益率上行主因是流动性风险，而非通胀预期或经济韧性。美债交易 波动率上升，三年期国债拍卖遇冷，表明市场逻辑已从避险转向流动性紧 张。日本套息交易平仓和美国内部抛售或是重要因素。 • 未来 48 小时内美债拍卖情况是评估流动性紧张程度的关键。关注 SOFR 互换利差、信用利差和交叉货币互换价差等离岸美元流动性指标，当前这 些指标显示流动性紧张，但尚未达到 2020 年水平。 • 对冲基金基差交易平仓可能加剧美债抛售。30 年期掉期利差与同期限国债 之间出现历史最大单日波动，表明基差交易平仓严重。当前基差交易名义 敞口约为 1 万亿美元，进一步平仓将引发流动性问题。 • 美国市场流动性问题尚未结束，联储是否提前行动是关键。企业债压力集 中在 BBB 级，若信用利差扩大，可能迫使联储更早降息。一季度 GDP 负 增长，二季度或进一步下降，衰退概率上升。 • 美债走势分三个阶段：流动性问题导致抛压；经济走弱和联储降息；降息 周期结束、减税加码、通胀压力上升，收益反弹。长期看，关税可能成为 解决财政赤字和累积信用风险的工具。 Q&A 美债 ...

以天和周为单位看待收益的人，相信的是奇迹与运气。 以月和季为单位看待收益的人，相信的是天赋与能力。 以年为单位看待收益的的人，相信的是自然规律。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250410— 决战到天亮（-美暂停多数国家关税90天+美对中关税提高至125%+3月通胀数据偏弱-股市表现偏强+资金面均衡宽松=中上)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展659亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2234亿元逆回购到期，净回笼1575亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金利率回落，DR001下至1.65%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.10) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阿购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率支努 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.68 | 53 | | 2.22 | | 57430. 66 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the alarming increase in leverage among major hedge funds involved in basis trading, raising concerns about potential market instability and the need for Federal Reserve intervention to prevent a crisis similar to past financial collapses [1][7][23]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Leverage and Basis Trading - Major hedge funds, including Millennium, Citadel, and Balyasny, have seen their regulatory leverage nearly double since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, approaching levels seen before the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) [1]. - The leverage used in these trades is reported to be around 20 times, indicating a high-risk environment for these institutions [4]. - A mere 5% loss in these leveraged positions could lead to catastrophic outcomes for the funds involved [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The current market conditions are characterized by a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with a record increase in yields, attributed to panic selling by hedge funds [12][14]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has surged by 50 basis points in just two days, reflecting the extreme volatility and fear in the market [14][16]. - The liquidity crisis is affecting all markets, leading to stock market declines and a potential dollar shortage due to the unwinding of synthetic dollar shorts [21]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Role and Potential Actions - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to intervene, with discussions around potential measures such as rate cuts or quantitative easing to stabilize the market [18][22]. - There is a growing sentiment that the Fed may need to act soon, especially with significant events like the upcoming 10-year Treasury auction that could test market liquidity [21]. - The paradox exists where increasing liquidity issues could be misinterpreted as inflationary signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the current turmoil in the global financial market, the upward trend of the global economy has not changed substantially. The impact of US tariffs on the global economy is less than the nominal figure, China will boost domestic consumption, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that the current stock market sell - off may turn into a longer - lasting cyclical bear market as the risk of economic recession rises. A cyclical bear market usually lasts about two years and takes five years to recover [1] - The continuous slump in the US Treasury market signals a serious systemic risk, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis similar to that in March 2020 [1] - The yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds has risen by 56 basis points in less than three trading days since last Friday, likely due to forced liquidation [1] - Nomura's Ryan Plantz warns that the US Treasury market is experiencing large - scale unwinding and a liquidity vacuum [1] - High - risk leveraged ETFs have suffered a historic collapse, losing over $25 billion in two trading days. The semiconductor and technology stock ETFs have been hit hard, with a quadruple - leveraged semiconductor ETF in Ireland plunging 59.1% in two days [1] - US stocks have lost over $10 trillion in three days, the US Treasury yield has soared, and the market panic index VIX has reached a post - pandemic high. Blackstone believes that tariff policies will keep interest rates and long - term bond yields high [1] - Bridgewater's Dalio warns of a "once - in - a - lifetime" systemic collapse of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order. Tariff issues reflect global imbalances in capital and trade [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that hedge funds have sold stocks worth $375 billion [1] Global Economic Logic - The substantial increase in US tariffs has less real impact on the global economy than the nominal figure due to domestic demand in the US and trade diversion. China will boost domestic consumption with extraordinary measures, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity. AI humanoid robots may enter mass production in 2025 [1]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 中美关税博弈剧烈，流动性危机没有解除，黄金价格短期或有反复。长期看， | | | 高位调整 | 美国关税核弹开启另一个混乱纪元，未来变数较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，短 | | | | 期等待调整结束，长期战略配置价值仍存【700-728】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 逻辑延续，关税冲击尚未结束，全球市场继续交易经济衰退，交易"滞"逻辑， 白银年后涨幅居首，故关税落地价格调整幅度较大，目前价格跌入前期的震荡 | | | | 区间附近，操作上等待企稳，不接刀子。【7500-7900】 | | 铜 | 延续回落 | 全球经济和金融危机担忧爆发，中方对美强硬反制后，特朗普威胁再度加码 50% 关税，市场恐慌情绪暂时难以缓解，铜延续回落，短期多空双杀，建议暂时观望， | | | | 不要火中取栗。沪铜关注区间【70000，75000】 | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 前期锌高位空单继续持有，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会，沪锌关注区 | | | | 间【21800，22800】 | | 铅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of gold is weak, and it is expected to continue its weak performance due to factors such as the settlement of long - positions after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs and short - term liquidity crises [1][3] - For nickel, the short - term view is to wait and see, with the price showing resistance after a sharp drop. If the macro sentiment improves, the futures price may rebound from the oversold level [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Down; Medium - term: Sideways; Intraday: Down; Reference view: Bearish in the short - term. The core logic is that after the reciprocal tariffs are implemented, long - position settlement and short - term liquidity crises suppress the gold price. Gold prices in New York and London have fallen below $3000, and it is expected to continue its weak operation [1][3] Nickel - Short - term: Sideways; Medium - term: Sideways; Intraday: Slightly bullish; Reference view: Wait and see. Affected by US "reciprocal tariffs", the non - ferrous metals market opened sharply lower after the holiday. The nickel ore market is strong, providing support for the nickel price, while the oversupply of nickel elements limits its rise. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the macro sentiment improves [1][5]

流动性危机暗涌：黄金大跌后的交易机会 美股深陷关税泥潭，黄金回调实为"假摔"？避险资产突遭抛售，黄金短期承压难改，但宽松预期仍在潜 伏，如何预判关键支撑与转向？读懂美股与黄金的右侧信号捕捉>> 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of US tariff policies has led to significant fluctuations in the global market, with a sharp decline in domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes are affected to varying degrees, and short - term caution and observation are recommended for most assets [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the implementation of US tariff policies has far exceeded market expectations, causing global market turmoil. Domestically, the US's additional 34% "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods and China's strong counter - measures may intensify short - term market fluctuations. However, the increase in holdings of ETFs and related stocks by Huijin, China Guoxin, and China Chengtong provides some support for domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to have a short - term correction, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds may have a short - term shock rebound, and cautious long - positions are advised. In the commodity sector, the black metal sector is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, non - ferrous metals may have a short - term correction, the energy and chemical sector may decline in the short term, and precious metals may have a short - term high - level correction, all requiring cautious observation [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as airport shipping, liquor, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The US tariff policies may intensify short - term market fluctuations, but the increase in holdings by relevant institutions provides some support. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market opened significantly lower. The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the liquidity crisis triggered by the plunge in large - scale assets and the strengthening of the US dollar index. The current market's pricing of "recession panic" and "liquidity crisis" may push the price of New York gold back to the $3000 mark, and if it breaks through, it may test the $2800 support. In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis still provide upward momentum for gold [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Monday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, but the decline in the black metal sector was relatively small compared to other varieties. The current steel demand is in the peak season and continues to recover. Supply is expected to further increase, with the hot metal output expected to rise to 240 - 245 tons. After the sharp decline on Monday, it is recommended to observe the steel market and pay attention to subsequent hedging policies [5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected significantly, mainly affected by the reciprocal tariff policies during the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The hot metal output continues to rise, and the fundamentals are still relatively healthy in the short term. It is recommended to observe and wait for the end of risk release [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese corrected significantly. The demand for ferroalloys has increased, but the supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the supply of silicon iron remains low. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - US tariff policies threaten global energy demand, and OPEC+ production increases lead to a rapid rise in the risk of supply surplus. The current tariff situation has exceeded expectations, and the market is pricing in the risk of a US and global economic recession [8]. Asphalt - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant weakening of asphalt prices. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but the actual demand is still weak, and the subsequent inventory reduction drive is limited. The short - term price will continue to follow crude oil, and price fluctuations will remain high [8]. PX - PX prices have significantly retreated following crude oil. With low PTA开工 and many domestic PX device overhauls, prices are under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the rebound of crude oil prices and the increase in overseas oil - blending demand. PX prices will remain low this week [9]. PTA - There are still many short - term PTA overhauls, which are not enough to offset the cost collapse. After April, PX demand will gradually recover, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. However, before the crude oil cost risk is fully realized, the PX price rebound will be limited. The downstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices will also decline [9][10]. Ethylene Glycol - The shipment of ethylene glycol is still average, and the inventory reduction is limited. The price is supported by short - term supply reduction, but the coal - based production may resume if the price rebounds. The price is likely to touch the previous low, and the rebound will be limited by weak downstream demand [10]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber has significantly corrected following crude oil. Although some short - fiber enterprises have announced industry self - discipline and the shipment has accelerated, the energy and chemical sector is still in a downward trend, and short - fiber is expected to remain weak [10]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Taicang has declined. Upstream overhauls have led to a slight decrease in production, and imports are expected to increase in mid - April. The downstream MTO/MTP开工 is acceptable, and there are overhaul plans in the second quarter. The short - term inventory decline supports the near - month contract, while the far - month contract is weak [11]. PP - The domestic PP market has partially declined. Upstream new device production and the approaching overhaul season, combined with weak downstream demand, limit price fluctuations. Crude oil price decline squeezes profits, and low inventory provides some support. The decline in propane imports in counter - sanctions may lead to a contraction in PP supply [12]. LLDPE - The PE market price has partially declined. The overall supply is relatively loose, downstream demand growth has slowed down, and inventory accumulation is expected. With the sharp decline in crude oil, prices are expected to be under pressure [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs will put great pressure on the global economy, and copper prices are just at the beginning of a decline. After a sharp short - term decline, there may be a rebound, but the mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies [14]. Aluminum - During the holiday, copper prices fell sharply, while aluminum was relatively stable. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has slightly increased. The fundamentals of aluminum are average, and the current market is mainly macro - priced. Existing short positions can be fully closed [15]. Tin - The tin price has risen due to supply disruptions but has fallen due to macro - risks during the holiday. The supply recovery is uncertain, and the demand is restricted by the US tariff policies. The social inventory of tin has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production and the Congo - Kinshasa negotiations [15]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean price closed higher, but the market's concern about US soybean exports has increased the risk of price decline. The export inspection volume of US soybeans last week was 804,270 tons. In South America, the soybean and corn harvest progress in Brazil's central - southern region is faster than last year [16]. Soybean Meal - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the price of soybean meal rose significantly. In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans is stable and abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to first decline and then rise in the second quarter. The futures price is affected by the expected increase in import costs and concerns about the US soybean supply chain. It is necessary to pay attention to the export price of Brazilian soybeans and the US new - season sowing situation [17]. Oils - US tariff statements and the decline in US soybean oil prices have put pressure on palm oil prices. The price of domestic soybean oil is supported by expected cost increases, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened. The risk premium of rapeseed oil has declined. The supply chain of domestic oilseeds is generally stable, but the increase in import costs may provide some support. In April, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia will increase, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. Corn - The domestic corn market has responded relatively calmly. China's dependence on US corn has decreased in recent years, and the domestic corn production has been abundant. With the reduction in imported grain supply and limited available residue in domestic corn - producing areas, the corn price is likely to rise [18][19]. Live Pigs - The price of large pigs has continued to decline, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is partially inverted. The supply is expected to be sufficient in the future, while the demand increase is limited. The short - term feed cost may rise, and the market is more likely to support prices, but the re - stocking of second - fattening pigs may be cautious [19].

今天两市成交额5800亿，已经连续好几天低于6000亿。市场中位数下跌2.98%，又是鬼哭狼嚎的一天。 外资今天净卖出22亿，自从6月6日之后只有2天是净流入的，30天里累计抛售了730亿。 但a股肯定不是他们砸蹋的，这一个月仅国家队入场救市买了就不止1000亿，除了外资外还有很多内资 在砸盘。我手头没数据，但凭感觉机构和散户都有在卖，这个位置肯定谈不上止盈，都是流着泪止损的 人。 一天6000亿，抛压很小，但糟糕的是没人买。其实股市和现在的房市挺像的，出了很多利好，但无法提 振市场信心，成交量低迷，价格还在持续阴跌。 今天又是接近5000只股下跌，到了现在这个地步已经是很明显的流动性危机，只有流动性枯竭这种全领 域的群伤魔法才能打出这种效果，不论行业不论题材，直接开大，除了魔免的qdii基金和少数吃了无敌 药水的抱团红利股，别的都是嘎嘎掉血。 有些人亏的受不了了，想换仓到美股基金或者国内的长江电力们，来问我有没有风险，呃，怎么可能没 风险，要有没风险的好事按中国的国情你普通人就肯定要找关系才能买。 纳斯达克目前的估值处于近20年的高位，另外a股的qdii基金还普遍有3-5%的溢价。同样的，长江电力 的pe现 ...