1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Supported by biodiesel policies, oils and fats are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. In the short term, the market will return to a volatile trend. For oils and fats to rise again, new drivers are needed, specifically problems on the supply side; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weak. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [92]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of three major oils have risen alternately. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has fluctuated, affected by various factors such as USDA's yield and area adjustments, tariff policies, crude oil prices, and biodiesel policies [5][6]. 3.2 Soybean Oil - **USDA's Adjustment of U.S. Soybean Planting Area**: USDA unexpectedly and significantly reduced the estimated U.S. soybean planting area. The U.S. soybean balance sheet shows that the 2025 - 08 data has decreased compared to previous periods, and there is a possibility of further tightening of the balance sheet and lower inventories [9]. - **Pro Farmer Field Inspection Results**: The number of soybean pods in major producing states in 2025 shows a mixed trend compared to 2024, with some states having an increase and others a decrease. The estimated yield per acre of 53.6 bushels provides room for a downward adjustment [10]. - **Soybean Growth Indicators**: As of the week ending August 24, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, higher than expected. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought [20]. - **SRE Announcement**: On August 22, EPA announced the handling of 175 small refinery exemption (SRE) applications from 38 small refineries in the 2016 - 2024 compliance years. It is expected not to affect the demand for biofuels [22]. - **South American Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.2573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.95%. Argentina adjusted its soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal export tariffs [31][32]. - **Domestic Situation in China**: China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons. The soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, and soybean oil was expected to continue to accumulate inventory. In late August, China exported soybean oil again, with an expected monthly average export volume of 3 - 50,000 tons from September to December [37][40]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Malaysian Inventory and Production**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was slightly lower than expected, exports met expectations, and inventory was lower than expected. From August 1 - 25, 2025, production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 10.9%. Malaysia plans to replant palm trees [50]. - **Indonesian Production and Policy**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.96% month - on - month, contrary to rumors. The government's crackdown on illegal palm plantations may affect future production. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 policy in 2026, but it is unlikely to be implemented in the short term [53][58]. - **Indian Imports**: India imported palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in July. It is rumored that India purchased palm oil from Latin America and imported rapeseed oil from the UAE. The Indian government may reduce the import tariff on rapeseed oil [66]. - **Chinese Imports and Inventory**: China's palm oil imports in July were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.57%. With the decline in imports, inventory is expected to peak and decline [76]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - **Canadian Rapeseed Production**: Canada's estimated rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year, as the increase in yield per unit offsets the decline in area [86]. - **Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling**: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations into Canadian rapeseed, setting a 75.8% deposit ratio. This will increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed and tighten domestic rapeseed supply. China will purchase Australian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed imports will continue to tighten before the end of this year, accelerating the pace of rapeseed oil inventory reduction [89].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is currently dominated by bullish narratives, driven by Indonesia's increased storage capacity, long-term production bottlenecks, and strong demand from India, making it difficult to challenge the underlying positive fundamentals [3][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is facing long-term constraints, while its storage capacity has improved, leading to a seasonal peak in inventories [3][18]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to reach a new high of 18 million tons in the next planting season, indicating a significant increase in demand [11][12]. - The comparison between China's weak consumption signals and the recovery of import profits suggests that China's demand is unlikely to provide effective feedback to the market [8][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Malaysia's seasonal accumulation trend and unsubstantiated domestic demand could create potential downward pressure on prices, with domestic demand exceeding 450,000 tons for three months this year [4][17]. - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with speculative attributes gaining more influence over industry fundamentals [9][19]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy changes and the potential reallocation of exemptions could impact the demand for palm oil, particularly in relation to North American soybean oil prices [5][6][7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The palm oil price is expected to find new support levels around 3,800 ringgit or 8,000 yuan in the long term, influenced by seasonal production increases and domestic demand fluctuations [4][18]. - The market is currently witnessing a divergence between palm oil pricing and commodity price indices, indicating a potential misalignment in market expectations [9][19]. - The palm oil market's reliance on speculative sentiment may lead to short-term price corrections, while long-term demand from India and Southeast Asia remains robust [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Futures may have an upward trend due to limited production growth and expected lower - than - estimated month - end inventory. Long - term view is cautiously bullish for Malaysian palm oil and oscillatingly bullish for domestic palm oil [2]. - Soybean oil: Affected by US biodiesel policy with uncertainties. CBOT soybean oil shows range - bound adjustment. Domestic spot basis quotes may be supported, and there is potential for basis quotes to rise if factory inventories decrease [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - Short - term: Supply and demand are both weak, with the market in a weak and oscillating state. Spring corn listing, old - grain selling, and import auctions increase supply, while demand is sluggish [4]. - Medium - term: New - season corn cost is lower, and with good growth, supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the market value may move towards the new - season cost [4]. 3. Sugar - International: Raw sugar is suppressed by expected supply increase but has a risk of production downward revision in Brazil. It is expected to trade in the 15 - 17 cents/lb range in the short term [8]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillatingly weak as the supply is becoming more abundant despite some digestion of import increase expectations [8]. 4. Live Hogs - Spot prices are stable with a slight downward trend. Suggest waiting and watching. If there is room to reduce the slaughter weight, there may be support for the far - month contract, and small - scale long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be considered below 14,000 [9]. 5. Cotton - Short - term: Domestic cotton prices may trade in a range as old - crop inventory is tight and the issuance of sliding - scale tariffs is lower than expected. - Long - term: New - season cotton production is expected to increase steadily, putting pressure on prices after new cotton hits the market [11]. 6. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain bearish due to sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion [14]. 7. Meal - The decline space of domestic meal is limited as the cost side provides good support. The global soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not abundant, and the cost support for domestic meal is still strong [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On August 26, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,740 yuan, the futures price of Y2601 was 8,536 yuan, and the basis was 204 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu in August was 01 + 220 [2]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong on August 26 was 9,470 yuan, down 1.56% from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis was 46 yuan, down 65.15%. The import cost and profit in Guangzhou Port in January showed a decline [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on August 26 was 10,020 yuan, up 0.40%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,941 yuan, down 0.57%. The basis was 79 yuan, up 538.89% [2]. - **Spreads**: Soybean oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 66.67%, palm oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 19.15%, and rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 12.15%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 17.05% [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On August 26, the price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port was 2,158 - 2,260 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan, and the 11 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan. Import cost decreased, and import profit increased slightly [4]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,475 yuan, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Changchun and Weifang decreased. The basis and 11 - 3 spread both declined [4]. 3. Sugar - **Futures**: On August 26, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,632 yuan, down 0.98%, and the price of sugar 2509 was 5,678 yuan, down 0.73%. ICE raw sugar主力 was at 16.42 cents/lb, up 0.18% [8]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in Nanning and other places decreased slightly. Imported Brazilian sugar prices (both quota - in and quota - out) decreased [8]. - **Industry situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased. Sugar imports increased significantly [8]. 4. Live Hogs - **Futures**: The price of the main contract of live hogs decreased slightly. The 11 - 1 spread was - 340 yuan, down 3.03% [9]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions were stable with a slight decline. Slaughter volume increased slightly, and self - breeding and外购 breeding profits improved [9]. 5. Cotton - **Futures**: On August 26, the price of cotton 2509 was 13,780 yuan, down 0.14%, and the price of cotton 2601 was 14,100 yuan, down 0.14%. ICE US cotton主力 was at 66.67 cents/lb, down 1.05% [11]. - **Spot**: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased, while FC Index decreased. The basis between 3128B and 01 contract increased by 11.92% [11]. - **Industry situation**: Commercial inventory decreased, import volume increased, and textile industry indicators showed mixed trends [11]. 6. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 2,916 yuan/500KG, down 1.19%, and the price of the egg 10 contract was 3,013 yuan/500KG, down 0.26% [13]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 2.42%. The basis increased by 84.78% [13]. - **Related indicators**: Egg - chick prices decreased, and the egg - feed ratio increased. Breeding profits improved [13]. 7. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,050 yuan, down 0.33%. The futures price of M2601 was 3,081 yuan, down 1.15%. The basis was - 31 yuan, up 45.61%. Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's crushing profit increased by 81.7% [17]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan, up 0.78%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,526 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was 74 yuan, up 124.24% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the soybean - one main contract was 3,974 yuan, down 0.45%. The basis increased by 114.29% [17]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 10.62%, and the oil - meal ratio increased slightly [17].

Group 1 - The overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market has slightly weakened, leading to a slowdown in the recent upward momentum of the oilseed market, but the fundamental support remains strong, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on oilseeds [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil production in July was reported at 1.8124 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09%, slightly below market expectations of 1.83 million tons; exports increased by 3.82% to 1.3091 million tons, slightly exceeding expectations; ending stocks rose by 4.02% to 2.1133 million tons, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase but still below the expected 2.23 million tons [2] - High-frequency data indicates that the seasonal production increase cycle may have peaked, with palm oil production from August 1 to 20 showing only a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while export figures recorded a significant month-on-month increase of 13.6% [2] Group 3 - The USDA reported a significant unexpected decrease in U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, a reduction of 6.2 million acres compared to last year; despite an increase in yield forecast from 52.5 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, total production was still adjusted down by 4.3 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels [3] - The ProFarmer annual crop tour indicated that soybean pod counts were higher than last year in most major producing states, with new crop yield estimates at 53 bushels per acre, slightly below the USDA's estimate [3] Group 4 - As the South American soybean export season ends in September, the market will shift back to U.S. soybeans; if high tariff policies persist, there may be a supply gap in the domestic soybean market [4] - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on canola seeds from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8%, which could tighten supply as Canada is the largest source of canola imports for China [4] Group 5 - The U.S. EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposal sets higher blending volumes for biofuels in 2026 and 2027, which is expected to increase U.S. soybean oil demand by about 20% [5] - Indonesia's B40 policy is projected to require 1,419 million tons of palm oil, an increase of 223 million tons year-on-year, with potential future implementation of B50 further boosting domestic palm oil consumption [5]

Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Bean Meal: Slightly Bullish (One Red Star) [1] - Soybean Oil: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Palm Oil: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Neutral (White Star) [1] - Corn: Slightly Bearish (One Green Star) [1] - Live Hogs: Slightly Bearish (One Green Star) [1] - Eggs: Neutral (White Star) [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends in various varieties. Some are affected by supply - demand factors, some by policies, and others by weather and trade relations [2][3][7] - There are opportunities for long - term investment in some varieties like eggs, while others like live hogs are expected to remain weak in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Variety Bean No.1 - The price of Bean No.1 is in a weak decline due to increased supply pressure from policy - driven soybean auctions and weak demand. The spread between Bean No.1 and Bean No.2 is in consolidation. Short - term focus should be on soybean policies and Sino - US trade relations [2] Soybean & Bean Meal - As of August 24, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, higher than expected. Global oil strength may boost soybean crushing. China's soybean supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a gap in Q1 next year. The situation of "crushing for oil" has emerged. The long - term view on domestic bean meal is cautiously bullish [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The market has positive expectations for Sino - US trade negotiations. US soybean oil is in a short - term rebound and then in a shock. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reducing cycle. Long - term, there is a development trend for US and Indonesian biodiesel. Bean and palm oils can be considered for buying at low prices with risk control [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed varieties' futures prices closed down today, dragged down by the weak external rapeseed market. The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed affect global rapeseed prices. The domestic rapeseed market is in a short - term shock and the price center may shift down [6] Corn - China Grain Reserves Corporation continued to auction imported corn with a 15% transaction rate. Shandong's corn supply is stable. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 24. Domestic new - season corn may have a good harvest, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog spot price is weak, with the average slaughter price hitting a new low. The supply is abundant. The futures price follows the spot price. The supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price is expected to remain weak in the medium - term. Policy aims at industry capacity reduction, but the inflection point has not been seen [8] Eggs - Egg futures are weak, with some contracts hitting new lows and funds increasing positions. Spot prices are rising in many places. There may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices from late August to September. In the long - term, there are signs of accelerated culling of old hens, and there is a high probability of capacity reduction in the second half of the year. It is advisable to consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year at low prices [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global vegetable oil market is strengthening due to bio - diesel policies, which may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic soybean supply may face a shortage in Q1 next year. The report is cautiously bullish on the long - term trend of domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The price of domestic soybean is weak due to increased supply pressure from policy - driven sales and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is in a consolidation state. The performance of imported soybeans is strong, and the market expects a tighter supply of soybeans in Q1 next year [2]. - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are supported by policies and market fundamentals. The domestic soybean supply expectation is changing, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation to China [2][4]. - The domestic rapeseed futures prices may be in a short - term shock and consolidation pattern, and may be supported by long - term import uncertainties [5]. - The domestic corn market may continue to operate weakly at the bottom due to sufficient supply and good growing conditions for new - season corn [6]. - The price of live hogs is expected to remain weak in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policy [7]. - The egg futures market has increased positions significantly, and the egg price may have a seasonal rebound. There are signs of capacity reduction in the egg industry, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year [8]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean - The price of domestic soybean is weak because of policy - driven sales increasing supply pressure and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is in consolidation. Imported soybeans are strong due to the US bio - diesel policy. The market expects a tighter supply in Q1 next year, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export to China, as well as domestic weather, policies, and imported soybean performance [2]. 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged due to bio - diesel policies. Domestically, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year. The growth of new - season US soybeans faces challenges. The relationship between domestic soybean meal futures and US soybeans is weakening. The report is cautiously bullish on the long - term trend of domestic soybean meal futures [3]. 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean oil has strengthened. The US bio - diesel policy has a general upward trend in demand but with structural adjustments. Malaysian palm oil has strong exports and limited production growth, supporting its price. The market expects a tighter domestic soybean supply in Q1 next year [4]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed futures prices have small fluctuations, and the position is gradually shifting from the 09 contract to the 01 contract. The supply of rapeseed is in a tight - balance state, and the market focus has shifted to the demand side. The prices may be in a short - term shock and consolidation pattern and may be supported by long - term import uncertainties [5]. 3.5 Corn - The Chinese government continues to auction imported corn, and the supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The inventory of ports and deep - processing enterprises is seasonally decreasing. The new - season corn may have a good harvest, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6]. 3.6 Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has reached a new low this year. The government plans to conduct central reserve frozen pork purchases to support the price. Fundamentally, the supply in the second half of the year is high. The price is expected to remain weak in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policy [7]. 3.7 Eggs - The egg futures market has increased positions significantly, with some contracts hitting new lows. The spot price may have a seasonal rebound. There are signs of capacity reduction in the industry, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year. It is advisable to consider going long on futures contracts for the first half of next year at low prices [8].

Report Core Views - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in high - level consolidation. Short - term, it will test the support at 4500 ringgit, and may briefly drop to 4350 ringgit. After stabilization, it may return to 4500 ringgit. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are also in high - level consolidation, testing the 9500 yuan support. If it holds above 9500 yuan, it may rise to 9800 - 10000 yuan by the end of the month, then likely start a downward trend due to September's potential production increase [3]. - For soybean oil, affected by biodiesel policy news, CBOT soybeans are in high - level consolidation. In the domestic market, demand has started, boosting futures. However, the expected US soybean harvest may cause CBOT soybeans to fall, limiting the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil is around 8500 yuan. If US soybean and soybean oil futures fall, it may drop to 8300 yuan; otherwise, it may rise to 8700 yuan [4]. - For soybean meal, as of the end of the 34th week in 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory is 106.3 tons, up 1.04% from last week. Affected by environmental policies, some oil mills in North China will shut down briefly at the end of the month. Prices of oil mills and traders have risen by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [18]. Market Data Fats and Oils Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil closed at 4507 ringgit/ton, down 0.49%. Dalian palm oil futures: 01 contract at 9582 yuan/ton, down 0.1%; 05 at 9290 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; 09 at 9488 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The spread between P 1 - 5 is 298 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [5][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil closed at 55.2 cents/pound, up 2.66%. Dalian soybean oil futures: 01 contract at 8488 yuan/ton, up 0.94%; 05 at 8180 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; 09 at 8536 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The spread between Y 1 - 5 is 316 yuan/ton, unchanged [5][14]. - **Price Spread**: Y - P 01 is - 1134 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; Y/M 01 is 2.739, unchanged [5]. Oilseed Futures Price - **Soybean Meal**: 01 contract closed at 3117, up 29 (0.94%); 05 at 2844, up 14 (0.49%); 09 at 3061, up 20 (0.66%) [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: 01 contract closed at 2547, up 4 (0.16%); 05 at 2473, up 4 (0.16%); 09 at 2602, up 18 (0.7%) [19]. Spread of Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 258, unchanged; M05 - 09 is - 211, up 18; M09 - 01 is - 47, down 4 [20][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is 74, down 11; RM05 - 09 is - 115, up 19; RM09 - 01 is 41, down 8 [20][22].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed a differentiated trend this week. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices increased, while soybean oil prices decreased. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased slightly. The market is waiting for the US policy on biodiesel exemptions for small refiners, which may affect oil prices [4][10][29] - In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9850 next week. In the long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with the center of gravity likely to rise, and the expected fluctuation range is 9300 - 10100 [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 9460 to 9592, with a weekly increase of 1.40%; the spot price rose from 9428 to 9570, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) rose from 9757 to 9890, with a weekly increase of 1.36%; the spot price rose from 9877 to 9985, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) fell from 8534 to 8458, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8608 to 8528, with a weekly decrease of 0.93% [4] Basis Changes of the Three Major Oils - As of August 21, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 74 yuan/ton (a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 116 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 50 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7] - As of August 22, 2025, the YP spread was - 1134 yuan/ton (a decrease of 208 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 10.45 tons (a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 61.73 tons (an increase of 1.75 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.27 tons (an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 186.45 tons (an increase of 1.7 tons from the previous week) [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons [16] - In May 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 4.2% to 291.6 tons [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory at national ports was 892.60 tons (a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 680.40 tons (a decrease of 30.16 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 2% from the previous week) [19] - As of August 22, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 566.30 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [22] - As of August 22, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2866.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22] Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 400 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 12800 tons. The POGO spread was 442.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 16.75 dollars/ton from the previous week) [28] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [28] Fundamental Analysis of the Three Major Oils - Policy: The market is waiting for the US to announce the exemption policy for small refiners related to biodiesel [29] - Foreign factors: The USDA monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons, the crude palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons, and the palm oil export volume in July increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons [29] - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [29] - Inventory: As of August 15, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 10.45 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.73 tons, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 114.27 tons [29] - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed a differentiated trend this week. The spot price of palm oil increased by 1.51%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 1.10%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.93% [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures rose 1.40% this week. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and exports increased by 13 - 18%, with the export growth slowing down. Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% to 253 tons. The B50 plan is expected to be implemented, which will support future consumption in the producing areas. India has low inventory, and the pre - Diwali stocking period is expected to have significant import demand for oils, which still supports international palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the procurement of palm oil for September shipments is limited, and the demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [31]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Five Mines Futures Agricultural Products Morning Report on August 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soybean/M粕 Core View - The cost of imported soybeans is on a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is in a season of oversupply. It is expected that the spot market may start to destock in September. The soybean meal market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][5] Key Information - On Wednesday night, the U.S. soybeans closed slightly higher in a narrow - range oscillation. The market is still focused on the PROFARMER tour survey. The U.S. Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible. The Brazilian soybean premium is stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remains unchanged for the time being. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, with the East China region reporting 01 - 170 yuan/ton. The soybean meal trading is weak, but the pick - up is good. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and it is expected to crush 2.4043 million tons this week [3] - In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is expected to be low. In Brazil, the premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the U.S. soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is a short - term positive for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of U.S. soybeans, the positive EPA policy, and the fact that soybeans are solely supplied by Brazil from September to January, the cost of imported soybeans maintains a stable and slightly rising trend. However, the continuous upward momentum of the cost of imported soybeans needs to be tested under the background of global protein raw material oversupply [3] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range. At the high end, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure. Focus on the progress of Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a rising expectation in the fourth quarter. However, the upward space is limited by multiple factors [7][9] Key Information - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the 366,482 tons exported in the same period last month. It is expected that the exports in the first 15 days will increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and the first 20 days will increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. SPPOMA data shows that from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [7] - The Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) stated that the direct impact of U.S. market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited, as it is difficult to find substitutes in the global market [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that due to the slowdown in supply and the decrease in soybean supply caused by biodiesel demand, the palm oil price is expected to remain above 4,300 ringgit per ton in the short - term [7] - On Wednesday night, the three major domestic oils oscillated, affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provide continuous positive factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Trading Strategy - The oil price is expected to oscillate strongly. If the importing countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong price. There is a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the high valuation and multiple suppressing factors limit the upward space [9] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan or 0.26% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,940 - 6,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,130 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 264 yuan/ton [11] - According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a 5.6% year - on - year decrease compared to 86.1 tons per hectare in the same period in 2024 [11] Trading Strategy - The international raw sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increased domestic imports and high import profits [12] Group 5: Cotton Core View - The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price slightly decreased. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan or 0.32% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 945 yuan/ton [14] - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30, which may benefit U.S. cotton growers [14] Trading Strategy - The USDA report is more positive than expected, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the U.S. for 90 days are positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The egg price in the spot market is mostly stable with a few declines, and the futures market may fluctuate in the short - term, with short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the medium - term [17][18] Key Information - The national egg price is mostly stable with a few declines. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the willingness of second - and third - tier dealers to stock up and build inventories is low. The overall circulation speed is slow. It is expected that the egg price will mostly decline and a few will remain stable today [17] Trading Strategy - The supply of newly - laid hens continues to increase, and the number of culled chickens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures market has a premium. The short - term futures market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18] Group 7: Pigs Core View - The pig price may oscillate in a range, with short - term low - buying opportunities and attention to the upper - limit pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21] Key Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally increased. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 13.8 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased 0.1 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. After the price increase, the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods decreased, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some farmers plan to increase the number of pigs for sale. It is expected that the pig price will be stable with some declines and a few slight increases today [20] Trading Strategy - The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures market has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the context of expected increases in both supply and demand, the fat - to - standard pig price difference and whether there will be pig hoarding are crucial. The market may oscillate in a range. In the short - term, focus on low - buying opportunities; in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper - limit pressure; and use a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and it is expected to start destocking in September. The market has both bullish and bearish factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [6][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [11][12]. - The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments. The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [17][19]. - The pig price is expected to remain stable. The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons. The Brazilian soybean premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, and the downstream inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of port soybeans converted to soybean meal and oil mill soybean meal is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield decreased by 1.78%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. Indonesia has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. The domestic spot basis of the three major oils is stable at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price remained unchanged. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price increased slightly. In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price has been adjusted with slight increases and decreases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion is moderate. The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable with local weakness. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [21].