Report on the Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a chance of gradually bottoming out and rebounding. Domestic palm oil futures are in an oscillatory adjustment phase, while soybean oil supply is expected to remain abundant, but crushers' losses support price - holding. [1] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with November 3, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 50 yuan to 8420 yuan, with a 0.60% increase; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 30 yuan to 8570 yuan, with a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 rapeseed oil decreased by 30 yuan to 9770 yuan, with a 0.31% decrease. [1] - **Spread Changes**: The basis of Y2601 soybean oil increased by 52 yuan to 312 yuan, with a 20.00% increase; the basis of P2601 palm oil increased by 18 yuan to - 46 yuan, with a 28.13% increase; the basis of OI601 rapeseed oil decreased by 3 yuan to 327 yuan, with a 0.91% decrease. [1] - **Inventory Outlook**: In Malaysia, the market expects the end - of - month palm oil inventory to reach about 2.44 million tons. In China, the soybean inventory at factories was 7.7 million tons last weekend, at a record high since 2021. [1] Report on the Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price has weakened from a strong level. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakly oscillatory range, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread position can be held. [4] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 11950 yuan/ton; the price of the main contract basis decreased by 200 yuan to 265 yuan/ton, with a 43.01% decrease. [4] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 203 to 158004, with a 0.37% decrease; the weekly price of piglets decreased by 6 yuan to 20 yuan/kg, with a 23.08% decrease. [4] Report on the Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which provides support for the US soybean market. However, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but due to cost - side support and negative crushing margins, the downward space for domestic soybean meal is limited. [7] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 10 yuan to 3050 yuan, with a 0.33% increase; the spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 10 yuan to 2530 yuan, with a 0.40% increase. [7] - **Spread and Margin Changes**: The basis of M2601 soybean meal increased by 21 yuan to 35 yuan, with a 150.00% increase; the basis of RM2601 rapeseed meal increased by 4 yuan to 33 yuan, with a 13.79% increase. The crushing margin for US Gulf January shipments increased by 26 yuan to - 661 yuan, with a 3.8% increase; the crushing margin for Canadian January shipments decreased by 63 yuan to 596 yuan, with a 9.56% decrease. [7] Report on the Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the corn market is under selling pressure, and the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, remaining in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, due to low imports, demand resilience, and policy regulation, the corn market will be in a tight - balance situation. [8] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of corn 2601 decreased by 6 yuan to 2135 yuan, with a 0.28% decrease; the price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 2444 yuan, with a 0.37% decrease. [8] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The morning remaining vehicle count at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 20 to 648, with a 3.18% increase; the inventory of Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 2385 to 66351, with a 3.73% increase. [8] Report on the Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The expected increase in sugar supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is sluggish, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. [13] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 yuan to 5481 yuan, with a 0.33% decrease; the price of ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 0.47 cents to 14.21 cents/pound, with a 3.20% decrease. [13] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 1.1989 million tons to 11.1621 million tons, with a 12.03% increase; the national cumulative sugar sales increased by 0.88 million tons to 10.48 million tons, with a 9.17% increase. [13] Report on the Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a stalemate but may gradually rise as demand recovers. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300. [16] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3144 yuan/500KG, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased by 10 yuan to 3337 yuan/500KG, with a 0.30% decrease. [15] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 0.15 yuan to 2.8 yuan/feather, with a 5.66% increase; the price of culled hens decreased by 0.18 yuan to 4.11 yuan/jin, with a 4.20% decrease. [15] Report on the Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price, but the price faces hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not significant. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. [18] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of cotton 2605 decreased by 60 yuan to 13522 yuan, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan to 13535 yuan, with a 0.48% decrease. [18] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The commercial cotton inventory increased by 0.6985 million tons to 1.7202 million tons, with a 68.4% increase; the industrial cotton inventory decreased by 0.0362 million tons to 0.8093 million tons, with a 4.3% decrease. [18]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to gradually stop falling and recover after the release of risks following the MPOB supply - demand report. The overall view of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a weakening trend and seeking support at 8500 yuan [1]. Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy and potential CBOT soybean price corrections may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, but oil mills' losses support their price - holding mentality [1]. Pork - The pig price has changed from strong to weak due to sufficient market supply. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakening range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can be held [4]. Meal - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, cost - side support is strengthening, and the downward space is limited. There is an 800 - million - ton gap in shipments from November to January, and it is difficult to purchase cheap soybeans [7]. Corn - Currently, the corn market is under pressure from concentrated supply, and the futures price rebound is limited, showing a low - level range - bound pattern. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance situation with policy support [8]. Sugar - The expected increase in the supply surplus and weakening energy prices have led to a weakening of the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is in a low - level range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - In the short term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices are expected to be range - bound between 2900 - 3300. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually rise [16]. Cotton - The new cotton cost provides strong support for the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure is not high. Short - term cotton prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - On November 4, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8570 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the futures price of P2601 was 8616 yuan, down 48 yuan. The basis of P2601 was - 46 yuan, up 18 yuan. The inventory is expected to reach about 2.44 million tons at the end of the month [1]. Soybean Oil - On November 4, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8420 yuan, up 50 yuan; the futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, down 2 yuan. The basis of Y2601 was 312 yuan, up 52 yuan. The current soybean supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the factory inventory is at a high level [1]. Pork - Futures: The basis of the main contract was 265 yuan, down 200 yuan; the price of the 2605 contract was 11860 yuan, up 60 yuan; the price of the 2601 contract was 11685 yuan, down 50 yuan. Spot: The prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan all decreased [4]. Meal - Soybean Meal: On November 4, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3050 yuan, up 10 yuan; the futures price of M2601 was 3015 yuan, down 11 yuan. The basis of M2601 was 35 yuan, up 21 yuan. Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan, up 10 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 was 2497 yuan, up 6 yuan [7]. Corn - Corn Futures: The price of the 2601 contract was 2135 yuan, down 6 yuan; the basis was 15 yuan, up 6 yuan. Corn Starch: The price of the 2601 contract was 2444 yuan, down 9 yuan. The price in the Northeast is in a narrow - range shock, and the price in the North China is relatively stable [8]. Sugar - Futures: The price of the 2601 contract was 5481 yuan, down 18 yuan; the price of the 2605 contract was 5431 yuan, down 2 yuan. Spot: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5750 yuan, and the price in Kunming was 5680 yuan, down 15 yuan [13]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the 12 - contract was 3144 yuan, down 14 yuan; the price of the 01 - contract was 3337 yuan, down 10 yuan. Spot: The price in the production area remained at 2.88 yuan per catty. The chicken - raising profit was - 24.44 yuan per bird, up 1.66 yuan [15]. Cotton - Futures: The price of the 2605 contract was 13522 yuan, down 60 yuan; the price of the 2601 contract was 13535 yuan, down 65 yuan. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14640 yuan, down 16 yuan. The commercial inventory increased by 68.4%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% [18].

Report Information - Industry: Grease [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Views - The decline of grease continues, dragged down by the inventory accumulation in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies [7]. - The domestic grease supply is sufficient, the spot price drops with the market, and the basis quotation remains stable [7]. - The palm oil main producing areas have a strong production increase expectation, the export data slows down, and the domestic and foreign inventories are expected to increase, putting pressure on palm oil, but there are expectations of production reduction and B50 in the long - term [7]. - Based on the import cost calculation, the current price decline space of soybean oil is limited and it has buying value, but it is suppressed by high inventory, and the short - term price has limited upward momentum, with a possible fluctuation range of 8000 - 8300 [7]. - For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the arrival and crushing situation of Australian seeds later and the progress of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, and the de - stocking trend continues. It should be regarded as short - term shock adjustment, pay attention to the lower technical support, and the medium - and long - term idea is to buy on dips [7]. Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Quotation Information** - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Dongguan factories is 01 + 630, and grade 1 rapeseed oil is 01 + 730 [7]. - The basis price of grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: For grade 1 soybean oil, in November it is Y2501+250; from November to January it is 01 + 260; from December to January it is 01 + 280. For grade 3 soybean oil, it is 01 + 180. For raw soybean oil, it is 01 + 60. The palm oil quotes of Guangdong traders are stable: 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 120 (at Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 100 (at Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse), and 28 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse) [7]. 2. Industry News - According to the data released by shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,639,089 tons, a 5.2% increase compared with 1,558,247 tons in September. Among them, the export volume to China was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared with 45,000 tons in the same period last month [8]. - According to the data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,501,945 tons, a 4.3% increase compared with 1,439,845 tons in September [8]. - After the summit between China and the US leaders on Thursday, China has started to purchase US soybeans, and the stagnation of purchases in the previous months has been alleviated. People familiar with the matter revealed that China has newly purchased at least four ships of US soybeans, which will be shipped from the West Coast and Gulf Coast ports of the US later this year and early in 2026, with a total volume of about 250,000 tons, marking the gradual recovery of China - US agricultural product trade [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]

Report Overview - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The oils and fats market opened high and closed low, continuing to decline, dragged down by the inventory build - up in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies. The domestic supply of oils and fats is sufficient, and the spot prices fell with the market, while the basis quotes remained stable. For palm oil, there is a strong production increase expectation in the main producing areas, with slowing export data and expected inventory increases at home and abroad, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. After November, the arrival of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and with the decline in oil mill crushing volume, soybean oil is likely to turn to inventory reduction. The spot basis quotes of soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations due to the poor soybean crushing profit of factories. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the development of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, continuing the inventory reduction trend. In the short - term, it is regarded as a volatile adjustment, and the lower technical support should be noted. In the medium - to long - term, the idea is to buy on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China region, the basis of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 390, and from December to January is OI2601 + 320; the basis of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 480, and from December to January is OI2601 + 400. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: in November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders is temporarily stable, with the price of 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan being 01 - 80 [7]. - **Market Analysis and Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment state, and attention should be paid to the lower technical support. In the medium - to long - term, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. 3.2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture has suspended the release of weekly export sales reports and daily sales announcements due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate that the weekly export sales of US soybeans for the week ending October 23, 2025, are between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [9]. - Before the summit between China and the US, COFCO, a Chinese state - owned enterprise, purchased three ships of US soybeans, totaling 180,000 tons, to be shipped from the US West Coast from December to January next year [9]. - Rabobank expects the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the current forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [9]. - According to data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in October so far is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. From October 1 to 24, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9][10]. 3.3. Data Overview - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the state of Paraná, Brazil, in the 2025/26 season is 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent - good rate of soybeans is 98%, and the proportion of average - rated soybeans is 2%. Last week, the excellent - good rate was 99% [18]. - As of October 29, the inventory of imported soybeans in major ports is about 8.3 million tons, compared with 7.7 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.4 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month is 8.2 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by the China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in October 2025 is 8.8 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the forecast arrival volume of 8.6 million tons last month, a month - on - month change of 2.18%; an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the arrival volume of 6.3 million tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 39.44% [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures. For soybean meal 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating", with a reference view of "oscillating strongly". For soybean oil 2601, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly". For palm 2601, the short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Core Logic**: China may resume purchasing US soybeans, shifting the pricing anchor of domestic soybean meal from Brazilian premiums to the CBOT US soybean futures. The expected increase in imported soybean supply will pressure the spot basis of soybean meal. Currently, the domestic port soybean inventory has reached 950 million tons, at a near - three - year high. With the smooth progress of South American soybean sowing and weak domestic demand, oil mills are facing continuous losses in crushing and will be more cautious in purchasing. In the short term, soybean meal futures prices will follow the rebound of US soybean futures, but the rebound space is restricted by industrial chain pressure [5][6] Palm Oil (P) - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the increase in supply from major oil - producing countries have reduced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed to 2027, shaking market confidence in long - term demand. High domestic palm oil port inventories have increased pressure on the domestic market, and short - term palm oil futures prices have broken below the lower edge of the oscillation range, showing obvious weakness [7]

Report Date - The report is dated October 31, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and trending weaker. There's potential to fall below 4,200 ringgit and further to 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit due to concerns of slowing exports and increasing production. After the current decline and risk release from the MPOB report, prices may stabilize and rebound. Starting from November, decreasing production and inventory will support price increases [3] - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward trend. After breaking below the 8,800 yuan support, there's pressure to fall to 8,500 - 8,600 yuan. Following the rebound of Malaysian palm oil above 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also strengthen. A near - weak, far - strong market view is maintained [3] Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures opened higher but closed lower, dragged down by the falling BMD palm oil and the decline of CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the supply is abundant and demand is weak. There's a possibility that the January contract may fall to 8,000 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rebound, Dalian soybean oil will be boosted; otherwise, the January contract may break below the integer mark [4] Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - The factory - set price of soybean meal has increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, while the near - month basis has declined. Due to falling pig prices and continuous losses in the breeding industry, downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Traders are cautious. If US soybeans are imported at the basic tariff, it will improve the supply in the first quarter of next year, but the key lies in the release of oil mill profit margins. After the price correction, there's still a chance for the price to rise [17] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 is - 46 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2; BMD palm oil主力 is 4,211 ringgit/ton, down 1.15% [5][8] - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 is 184 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12; CBOT soybean oil主力 is 49.58 cents/pound, down 1.06% [5][14] Oilseed Price and Spread - Soybean meal: The closing price of bean粕01 is 3,021 with a daily increase of 27 and a rise of 0.9%; the difference between M01 - 05 is 195 with a daily increase of 29 [18][19] - Rapeseed meal: The closing price of菜粕01 is 2,388, down 13 and - 0.54%; the difference between RM01 - 05 is 66 with a daily increase of 23 [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the palm oil industry [3] Core Viewpoints - If Indonesia's palm oil production increases by 10% this year, the final output will reach a record high of 58 million tons. The production growth rate has gradually slowed since 2018 when Indonesia banned the development of new land for oil palm cultivation, with only 2019 seeing a growth rate of 9.37%. Whether Indonesia can achieve a 10% annual increase remains to be seen [3] - Even though the market expects the production to enter a decline cycle in November, there are still concerns about export demand. There were only rumors of a small amount of palm oil transactions last week ahead of India's Diwali in late October. Argentine sunflower oil is cheaper than that from the Black Sea, and there are also reports of domestic soybean oil exports to India. November may be a turning point for the oil market, depending on whether the US government will announce the compliance obligation volume for 2026. After the decline in oil prices, the market is waiting for demand to pick up and stabilize, and also needs confidence in biodiesel demand from Indonesia and the US. Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be any unexpected situations in weather and supply in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The report suggests focusing on the fulfillment of the MPOB October report next month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. International Oilseed Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly prices of Australian and Canadian rapeseeds declined. Australian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage. European sunflower seeds had the largest single - week increase, and Ukrainian sunflower seeds also saw an upward adjustment. The increase in international soybean prices was relatively small [5] 2. International Oil Prices - As of October 27, 2025, most weekly oil prices declined. South American soybean oil dropped by over $20 per ton, while European sunflower oil prices rose [9] 3. International Oil FOB Spreads - The spread between Malaysian and Indonesian refined palm oil was $0 per ton this week, compared to $15 per ton last week and a historical average of $8 per ton - The spread between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was -$29 per ton, compared to -$9 per ton last week and a historical average of $148 per ton [21] 4. International Rapeseed Spreads - As of October 24, with the progress of the Australian rapeseed harvest, the spread between Australian and Canadian rapeseeds began to narrow, while the spreads between German, Ukrainian, and Canadian rapeseeds remained at a high level [23] 5. Indian Port Oil Spreads - As of October 24, the spread between Indian port soybean oil and palm oil was $40 per ton, down from $50 per ton last week - The spread between sunflower oil and palm oil was $210 per ton, up from $190 per ton last week - The spread between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was -$6 per ton, down from $0 per ton last week [30] 6. Import and Crushing Profits - Last week, three November - shipment palm oil vessels were traded in the domestic market - Domestic oil mills exported 10,000 - 20,000 tons of soybean oil to India for January shipment [38] 7. Biodiesel - The weekly price of US soybean oil weakened, and the processing and blending profits continued to improve - After the rebound of RME, the weekly RME processing profit improved [132][139] 8. Demand Side Weekly Oil Transactions - Weekly spot oil transactions were sluggish [146] Oil Spot Basis - Different from the weak basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the basis of rapeseed oil was relatively strong [151] Oil Inventory - The report provides monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, including data on initial inventory, imports, total supply, demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [177]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term, weak market conditions suppress the upward momentum of the oil market, and the short - term market will run weakly. Wait for the final US energy policy in November to see if it can boost the oil market and further news about Indonesia's B50 plan. Strategy: stay on the sidelines. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - Palm oil: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season, with a production increase of over 10%. In Indonesia, the B50 plan faces uncertainties, and the future demand for palm oil is in doubt. However, due to the transfer of plantation ownership, production may be limited, and the B40 plan at the end of the year supports the price [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The US government shutdown has disrupted the acquisition of key agricultural data. The relatively optimistic progress of Sino - US trade talks boosts US soybeans, making soybean oil relatively resistant to decline [1]. - Domestic market: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient and under short - term pressure. After the Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations ease, the import of oilseeds may increase, alleviating supply concerns [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - Trend judgment: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. - Price range: P2601 oscillates between [8800 - 9700], Y2601 between [8000 - 8500], and OI between [9500 - 10300]. - Technical analysis: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. - Basis strategy: Consider using accumulated options to reduce basis pricing risks. - Spread strategy: For P1 - 5, consider a reverse spread strategy. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widens, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [23]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range prediction: Soybean oil: 8000 - 8700; rapeseed oil: 9500 - 10300; palm oil: 8800 - 9700. - Hedging strategy: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures; refiners with low inventories can buy soybean oil futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean oil futures [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was - 240 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil: Futures prices of different contracts mostly rose, and the basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 116 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of East China rapeseed oil was 302 yuan/ton [25][26][27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Three major Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, which may lower future production. A plantation's monthly fresh fruit bunch production has dropped significantly [30]. - Bearish information: On October 24, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils reached 261 million tons, at a high level in recent years. Sino - US trade consultations made initial progress. Multiple mining associations in Indonesia are requesting the cancellation of the B50 plan. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August, and production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [31]. - Spot trading information: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no trading [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [40]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: This week, there was more bearish information in the oil market, and the market continued to weaken. However, due to uncertainties such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season, the downward space is limited [39]. - Capital flow: In palm oil, the long and short positions are in a stalemate; in soybean oil, long positions increased significantly; in rapeseed oil, long positions increased slightly [39]. - Basis structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out, and the palm oil basis turned negative. - Spread structure: The oil market shows a Back structure, which has become shallower this week. The 1 - 5 spread has slightly recovered, and the concern about the far - month contracts has weakened [41]. - Price spread structure: This week, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil strengthened, the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil weakened slightly, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [49]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads both declined, and the overall cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly. The cost of palm - based biodiesel decreased to a limited extent, while the cost of US soybean - based biodiesel remained low [56]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. After a slight improvement in cost prices, they weakened again, and the sentiment of domestic buyers is expected to remain stable [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In September, the decline in Malaysian palm oil production was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. Pay attention to the inventory - reduction progress in the origin [61]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: With weak demand and high costs, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. - Soybean oil: The arrival of soybeans from October to November is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter will be sufficient, but the supply pressure may weaken in December. - Rapeseed oil: The current domestic inventory is high, and demand is limited. However, the inventory may decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be a supply shortage from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year if Sino - Canadian relations do not improve [63]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market boost is limited, and overall terminal demand will remain weak [65].

Summary of Palm Oil Industry Analysis and Price Outlook Industry Overview - The palm oil industry is primarily dominated by Malaysia and Indonesia, which together account for approximately 80% of global production. [1][2] - The aging of palm trees in Malaysia is expected to lead to a reduction in annual production by 40,000 to 560,000 tons over the next decade. [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Capacity**: Both Malaysia and Indonesia are nearing peak production levels, with Malaysia producing around 20 million tons and Indonesia about 55 million tons annually. [2] - **Biodiesel Policies**: Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B20, B30, B40) have significantly increased domestic palm oil consumption from 10 million tons to over 20 million tons annually. However, the B50 plan faces challenges due to traditional engine compatibility. [1][2] - **Market Dynamics**: The palm oil price is influenced by seasonal production, policy changes, and raw material costs. Long-term supply-demand fundamentals suggest an overall upward price trend, with biodiesel being the main source of demand growth. [1][5] - **Price Forecasts**: - In Q4 2025, palm oil prices are expected to be weak due to insufficient production cuts and weakened consumption expectations from delayed biodiesel policies. [6][12] - In Q1 2026, prices are anticipated to rise due to seasonal production cuts and the implementation of biodiesel policies, potentially reaching higher levels. [7][12] Additional Important Insights - **Weather Impact**: Weather phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña significantly affect palm oil production. The last El Niño in 2023 caused drought conditions that may impact future production. [8][11] - **Current Market Conditions**: The market is currently experiencing high inventory levels due to preemptive purchasing by China and India, leading to a lack of demand growth. [12][10] - **International Price Dynamics**: The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is currently negative but is expected to improve as market conditions stabilize. [13] - **Biodiesel Market Challenges**: The B40 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is operational but faces financial losses, and the B50 plan may encounter execution challenges. [14][15] - **US Policy Impact**: The new EPA policy in the US is expected to boost biodiesel demand, which could positively influence palm oil prices. [16] - **Global Market Trends**: The palm oil market is likely to be influenced by geopolitical factors, such as the US-China trade war, which has affected the supply of competing oils like soybean oil. [20][21] Conclusion The palm oil industry is at a critical juncture, with production challenges and evolving demand dynamics driven by biodiesel policies and international market conditions. Future price movements will be closely tied to these factors, alongside weather impacts and geopolitical developments.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to close at 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to close at 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to close at 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to close at 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 1.4 to close at 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.22% [4][7] - Palm oil oscillated and declined during the week mainly due to the month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production. High - frequency data showed that the month - on - month increase in export demand narrowed, and demand weakened after the Indian Diwali festival. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to build up inventory in October, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Additionally, the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy cooled, and its implementation is expected to be postponed, resulting in limited driving forces. Meanwhile, the US sanctions on Russia led to a sharp rebound in oil prices at a low level, providing some support for oils and fats [4][7] - Macroscopically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, easing trade sentiment; the growth rate of the US core CPI in September slowed down, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year. The US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index continued to oscillate at a low level. The US sanctions on Russia led to supply concerns, and oil prices rose significantly at a low level on a weekly basis. Fundamentally, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October is expected to continue to increase, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Coupled with the cooling of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy theme and the possible postponement of its implementation, the Dalian palm oil oscillated and declined. As negative factors are gradually priced in, attention should be paid to the supply - demand changes in the producing areas after entering the off - season. Recently, the strengthening of oil prices has slowed down the decline of palm oil. It is expected that palm oil will operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4][11] Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the DCE palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the DCE soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the CZCE rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 250 to 9,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 150 to 8,370 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang decreased by 120 to 10,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19% [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From October 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.45% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with increases of 4.54% in Peninsular Malaysia, 21.99% in Sabah, 16.69% in Sarawak, and 20.45% in Borneo [8] - Exports: According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 were expected to be 1,283,814 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 965,066 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were expected to be 793,571 tons, a 41.75% increase compared to the same period last month [8][9] - Price forecast: MPOC stated that entering 2026, the price of Malaysian crude palm oil will remain above 4,400 ringgit/ton. Citigroup analyst Gan Huan Wen pointed out that Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026 is likely to be postponed to 2027 due to funding constraints and an unfavorable palm oil - diesel price spread. It is expected that the price of crude palm oil will hover between 4,300 and 4,500 ringgit/ton by the end of the year [9] - Inventory: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3507 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 298,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 145,000 tons from the same period last year [10] - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 13,300 tons, compared with 11,800 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 1,406 tons, compared with 847 tons in the previous week [10] Industry News - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure sufficient domestic supply for biodiesel production. Implementing B50 will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel per year, compared with 15.6 million kiloliters for B40 [12][13] - It is estimated that global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high, with the total imports of eight major oils expected to increase by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the increase in imports is the expected increase in global vegetable oil consumption by 6.1 million tons, more than twice that of the previous year. The biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil have strong demand. Traditional major exporters such as India, Argentina, Brazil, and the US are expected to reduce their vegetable oil exports by 2.2 million tons. If Indonesia raises the blending requirement to 50%, it will significantly reduce the available palm oil for export, increasing the demand for soybean oil as a substitute [14] - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to the current B40 policy, accounting for about 35% of Indonesia's palm oil production. The available supply for export will be 22 million tons or less. The global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil, as the available export supply of soybean oil in the US and Brazil is expected to decrease significantly from 2.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 1.6 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 41% decrease [15] Relevant Charts - The report includes 22 charts showing the price trends, spreads, import profits, and inventory data of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the domestic commercial inventory of the three major oils [16][18][20][22][24][26][30][32][33][34][38][40][42][44][45][47][48][50][52][56][57]