1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Contracts**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures both increased, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract closing at 20,075 yuan/ton (+215 yuan) and the alumina futures main contract at 3,063 yuan/ton (+65 yuan). The positions of the main contracts of both decreased, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract position at 189,969 hands (-1175 hands) and the alumina main contract position at 299,898 hands (-11326 hands) [2] - **LME Aluminum and Related Data**: The LME aluminum three - month quotation decreased to 2,470.50 US dollars/ton (-2.50 US dollars), the LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased to 46,025 tons (-2400 tons), and the LME aluminum inventory increased to 367,875 tons (+4819 tons) [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The Shanghai aluminum SHFE warehouse receipts decreased to 48,989 tons (-1905 tons), and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.13 (+0.10) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price increased to 20,280 yuan/ton (+160 yuan), and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price increased to 20,100 yuan/ton (+240 yuan). The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wumaot aluminum premium decreased to 90 yuan/ton (-20 yuan), and the LME aluminum premium increased. The basis for electrolytic aluminum decreased to 205 yuan/ton (-55 yuan), and the basis for alumina decreased to 197 yuan/ton (-65 yuan) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Demand**: Alumina production decreased to 732.30 million tons (-15.22 million tons), the capacity utilization rate decreased to 82.10% (-6.18%), the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased to 693.70 million tons (-30.02 million tons), and the supply - demand balance decreased to - 9.93 million tons (-13.48 million tons) [2] - **Alumina Trade**: Alumina exports decreased to 26 million tons (-4 million tons), and imports decreased to 1.07 million tons (-0.05 million tons) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade**: The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased to 4,518.20 million tons (+1.00 million tons), the production of primary aluminum imports increased to 250,476.81 tons (+28656.52 tons), and the exports increased to 13,672.79 tons (+4972.94 tons) [2] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory and开工率**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased to 48.20 million tons (-2.30 million tons), and the electrolytic aluminum开工率 increased to 97.60% (+0.10%) [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Product Output**: The output of aluminum products decreased to 576.40 million tons (-21.77 million tons), the output of aluminum alloy decreased to 152.80 million tons (-12.70 million tons), and automobile production decreased to 260.40 million vehicles (-44.06 million vehicles) [2] - **Export Volume**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased to 52 million tons (+1 million tons), and the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased to 1.66 million tons (-0.16 million tons) [2] 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai aluminum increased to 12.39% (+0.36%) and 15.48% (+0.24%) respectively. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased to 9.87% (-0.0069%), and the option call - put ratio increased to 0.67 (+0.0252) [2] 3.7 Industry News - **Economic Forecast**: The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the United States and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop to 2.9% [2] - **Manufacturing PMI**: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - **Automobile Industry Initiative**: The All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative to resist "price war" competition and regulate the industry [2] - **Tariff Policy**: US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4, 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. Overseas, yields of key - term Treasury bonds in the US, Germany, and Japan increased. The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Performance**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, TS2509 rose 0.050 to 102.396, with a 0.05% increase; TF2509 rose 0.150 to 106.020, with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The positions of some contracts increased, such as T2509 with an increase of 2562, while TF2509 decreased by 973. Trading volumes also varied among contracts [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads changed, for example, the cross - period spread of T2509 decreased from 0.0250 to 0.005 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - **Yield Changes**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. For example, the 10Y Treasury bond yield declined 1.9bp to 1.68%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 3, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. In May, the central bank carried out SLF operations of 14.01 billion yuan, and policy banks net - repaid 2700 billion yuan of PSL [3]. - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The OECD lowered the growth forecasts for the US and the global economy. The US 2025 growth forecast was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 2.9% [3]. - **International Relations**: The US increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, starting from June 4, 2025. The US also made unfounded accusations against China, and China firmly opposed these actions [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June due to a large number of maturing certificates of deposit. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [3].

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Economic Outlook - The OECD has downgraded the economic growth forecast for the US to 1.6% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026, with global economic growth expected to decline to 2.9% and inflation potentially reaching 3.2% [1] - The US Department of Labor reported that job vacancies reached 7.391 million in April, exceeding expectations, indicating healthy demand for labor [2] - The Eurozone's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.9% year-on-year in May, which is below market expectations, raising the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank [2] Market Movements - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.51% to 42,519.64 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.58% to 5,970.37 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.81% to 19,398.96 points [3] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.60% to $3,376.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.05% to $34.68 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main US oil contract rising by 1.31% to $63.34 per barrel and Brent oil up by 1.47% to $65.58 per barrel [5] Currency and Bond Markets - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 99.28, while the euro and British pound both depreciated against the dollar [6] - The yields on US Treasury bonds rose, with the 2-year yield up by 1.45 basis points to 3.945%, the 5-year yield up by 1.91 basis points to 4.021%, and the 10-year yield up by 1.38 basis points to 4.454% [5]

Group 1 - The OECD has significantly downgraded the US economic growth forecast for this year and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.5% respectively, citing factors such as tariff policy impacts, rising economic policy uncertainty, slowing net immigration, and a shrinking labor force [3] - The OECD report indicates that the global economic outlook is becoming increasingly challenging, with rising trade barriers, tightening financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty potentially having a negative impact on economic growth [3] - The inflation outlook shows a notable difference between the US and other major economies, with the US inflation rate expected to rise from 2.8% to 3.2%, while G20 countries' inflation is projected to decrease to 3.6% [3][4] Group 2 - The Dallas Fed President stated that the Fed is closely monitoring various data due to a stable labor market and inflation slightly above target, indicating potential future actions [4] - The US manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 48.5 in May, with the supplier delivery index rising to its highest level since 2022, indicating slowed delivery speeds [4] - In the Eurozone, inflation dropped to 1.9% in May, below the ECB's 2% target, leading to a decline in European bond yields [4][5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 2-year yield slightly rising to 0.758% [7] - The US Treasury plans to issue a 6-week short-term bond worth $60 billion [8]

Economic Growth Forecasts - The OECD has further downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the US and globally, attributing this to the pressure from President Trump's tariff policies [1] - The US growth outlook for this year has been revised down to only 1.6%, with a projection of 1.5% for 2026, compared to a previous expectation of 2.2% growth in 2025 [1] - The OECD highlighted factors such as the impact of tariff policies, increased economic policy uncertainty, slowed net immigration, and reduced federal government employment as reasons for the downgrade [1] Global Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest global growth forecast has also been lowered, indicating that the economic slowdown is primarily concentrated in the US, Canada, and Mexico, while other economies are expected to see smaller adjustments [1] - Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both this year and 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3.1% for this year and 3% for 2026 [1] - The report warns that the global outlook is becoming increasingly severe, with potential negative impacts from increased trade barriers, tightening financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty [1] Inflation Predictions - The OECD has adjusted its inflation forecasts, stating that higher trade costs, particularly in countries with increased tariffs, will push up inflation, although this effect will be partially offset by weaker commodity prices [2] - There is a significant disparity in inflation predictions between the US and other major economies, with the OECD now forecasting a US inflation rate of 3.2% for 2025, up from a previous estimate of 2.8%, and potentially nearing 4% by the end of 2025 [2] - The OECD expects that the Federal Reserve's interest rates will remain unchanged this year, and if inflation stays close to target, some central banks may continue to lower rates [2]

智通财经6月3日电，经合组织将2025年加拿大经济增长预期从0.7%上调至1.0%；预计墨西哥2025年经 济将增长0.4%，此前预估会收缩。 ...

经合组织将2025年加拿大经济增长预期从0.7%上调至1.0%。预计墨西哥经济在2025年将增长0.4%，此 前预估会收缩。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% to mitigate the downside risks to economic growth [1] - Due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, South Korea's exports are expected to continue slowing, significantly impacting economic growth [1] - A media survey predicts that South Korea's exports in May may decline by 4.9% year-on-year, following a 3.7% increase in April [1] Group 2 - A survey by Mono indicates that if the current U.S. tariff policy continues, South Korean exporters expect a nearly 5% decline in exports to the U.S. this year [2] - Among the top 1,000 exporting companies, the electrical and electronics sector anticipates the largest decline of 8.3%, followed by the automotive sector at 7.9% [2] - The Bank of Korea has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.8%, with a projected growth rate of 1.6% for 2026 [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that the Bank of Korea is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate to 2.00% by the end of Q4 2025, down from a previous estimate of 2.25% [3] - The Bank of Korea forecasts the inflation rate in South Korea to reach 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, with inflation expected to stabilize around 2% [3] - Future inflation trends will depend on economic conditions, exchange rates, and oil prices, with a need to remain vigilant against rising household debt and increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [3]

韩国央行下调2025年经济增长预期至0.8%，预计2026年增速为1.6%。 ...