Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula criticized Trump's tariff threats against BRICS nations as "wrong and irresponsible," emphasizing that the world has changed and countries do not need an "emperor" dictating their choices [1][2] - Lula stated that if the U.S. imposes tariffs on other countries, those countries can reciprocate with tariffs on the U.S. [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated that the BRICS mechanism promotes cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, advocating for open and inclusive trade without targeting any specific nation [1] Group 2 - At the BRICS summit, leaders condemned U.S. tariff increases, warning that such actions could threaten global trade [2] - Lula highlighted the need for trade relations that do not rely on the U.S. dollar, advocating for discussions among central banks of BRICS nations [3] - Other BRICS leaders, including South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, stated that the organization does not seek competition with any major powers [3] Group 3 - Trump expressed support for former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, who is facing trial for attempting to overturn the 2022 election results, claiming Bolsonaro is "being persecuted" [4][6] - Lula firmly rejected any foreign interference in Brazil's sovereignty, asserting that the country has its own laws and that the Brazilian people are the true owners of the nation [6]

月度CPI数据波动大，不能完全代表整体趋势。 二季度部分CPI分项数据可能超预期。 发生严重贸易战的可能性已降低。 澳洲联储主席布洛克：等待确认CPI能否持续稳定在2.5%的目标轨道上。 认为（政策）沟通"进展相当顺利"。 今日（利率）决定关乎时机而非方向。 需确保通胀得到控制。 将参加8月政府生产力圆桌会议。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Vietnam's recent tariff imposition on China, reaching as high as 27.83%, is a strategic move to alleviate economic pressure from the United States [1][5][9] - Vietnam's decision to impose tariffs is a response to the severe economic threats posed by the U.S., including a potential 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports [3][5][21] - The tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly those transshipped through China, are intended to comply with U.S. demands while attempting to protect Vietnam's economic interests [11][19] Group 2 - Vietnam's economic strategy reflects a shift in diplomatic relations, prioritizing economic survival over previous close ties with China [7][25] - The imposition of tariffs may disrupt Vietnam's industrial supply chain, which heavily relies on Chinese components, potentially leading to increased production costs and reduced competitiveness [15][23] - The ongoing U.S.-China economic rivalry has placed Vietnam in a precarious position, forcing it to navigate between the two powers while seeking short-term economic relief [17][21]

特朗普还宣布对马来西亚征收25%的关税，老挝和缅甸则将面临40%的关税。其他被征收关税的国家包 括印度尼西亚(32%)、孟加拉国(35%)以及泰国和柬埔寨(36%)。 美国Axios新闻网称，美国总统特朗普周一发出关税信，对主要盟友征收25%的关税。 Axios指出，经过数月的威胁，特朗普突然再次升级贸易战。对于那些渴望确定性、经历了一段相对平 静时期的企业来说，此举可能会再次打破这种平衡。这也给基本上已经进入后关税时代的金融市场注入 了新的风险。 【技术分析】 黄金日线周一收阳，十字星后很可能就会破位日线布林中轨的压制，那么，多头就能形成单边走势，到 时候就难以形成调整了，上方就可以看到3400，3430高点，因此，黄金的多头表现很明确，但在日线还 差一个布林中轨的破位。H4中期的技术形态低位三连阳，布林收口，站稳在布林中轨之上是绝对的强 势，金价继续上涨上方就看3365附近，3365是上周的高点，这个点位破位布林拉开，本周就有可能形成 大涨空间看到3400，3430。所以，周一，周二，周三黄金行情还是看涨，但要等待调整做多，看涨先关 注3365的得失。 周二（7月8日）亚洲时段，现货黄金维持窄幅震荡，目前 ...

7月6日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对由中国、俄罗斯等主要新兴国家组成的金砖国家 （BRICS）中"所有附和反美政策的国家"征收10％的额外关税。他在自己的SNS上发文强 调："没有任何例外"。 7月6日，金砖国家在巴西里约热内卢举行首脑会议，并通过了首脑宣言。首脑宣言虽未直接提及美国， 但谴责对金砖成员国伊朗的武力攻击违反国际法…… 7月6日，中国国务院总理李强在金砖国家首脑会议上发表演讲："强权和霸道从来不是解决问 题的正确途径"。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）田岛如生 北京报道 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号内容推荐： 特朗普并未就"反美政策"的具体内容做出说明。7月6日，金砖国家在巴西里约热内卢举行首 脑会议，并通过了首脑宣言。 首脑宣言虽未直接提及美国，但谴责对金砖成员国伊朗的武力攻击违反国际法。 中国外交部发言人毛宁在7月7日的记者会上对特朗普的表态表示反对。她明确表示："我们一 贯反对关税战、贸易战，反对以关税作为胁迫施压的工具。肆意加征关税不符合任何一方利 益"。 毛宁同时表示，金砖合作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff measures have triggered risk aversion in the market, with the US stock market falling, the US dollar index rising, and gold prices rebounding while copper prices weakening [2]. - The domestic economic fundamentals continue the pattern of "low inflation, weak recovery", and the A - share market may maintain a pattern of shrinking - volume shock adjustment in the short term [3]. - Due to the uncertainty of tariffs, the prices of precious metals may fluctuate more significantly in the short term, and the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and other metals may face downward pressure in the short term [4][6][8]. - The prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate may enter a shock pattern in the short term, and the price of nickel may be weakly volatile [15][17][19]. - The oil price is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the steel price and iron ore price may be in a shock pattern [20][21][23]. - The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil may be in a shock pattern in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump signed an executive order to postpone the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9 to August 1 and notified 14 countries of significant tariff increases. The market risk - appetite declined significantly, the US stock market fell nearly 1%, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.38%, and the US dollar index showed strength [2]. - Domestic: The economic fundamentals continue the "low - inflation, weak - recovery" pattern. The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment, and the bond market is affected by supply - side issuance increments and real - estate policy expectations [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices recovered their decline due to Trump's tariff increase on Japan and South Korea. COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. Tariff uncertainty may increase short - term price volatility [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper fell from a high level due to tariff disturbances. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market was inactive, and the LME inventory rebounded. The US tariff increase on Japan and South Korea and other factors may lead to a short - term correction of copper prices [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices adjusted from a high level due to tariff concerns and an increase in warehouse receipts. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and short - term prices may be under pressure [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices were in a strong - biased shock. The spot prices at home and abroad rebounded, and the futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased. However, supply surplus and rigid consumption may limit the upward space in the medium term [10]. Zinc - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar and accelerated inventory accumulation. The supply was stable and at a high level, and downstream orders were insufficient in the off - season [11]. Lead - Lead prices had limited corrections supported by the expectation of improved consumption. Although there was an expectation of inventory accumulation, the overall inventory level was not high [12]. Tin - Tin prices corrected from a high level. The supply increased marginally as refineries resumed production, and the downstream was in the off - season with insufficient purchases at high prices [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply side was weak, and the demand side was mixed. Policy support enhanced market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals may limit the upward trend [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices may correct in the short term. The price increase boosted supply, the market inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot market was relatively cold [17][18]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. The tariff exemption period was approaching, and the macro - level was uncertain. The cost pressure of nickel - iron plants was not relieved, and stainless steel was sluggish [19]. Crude Oil - Oil prices were weakly volatile. The geopolitical risk was gradually subsiding, and OPEC +'s production - increase plan was accelerating, but the peak consumption season supported the current fundamentals [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel prices were in a shock pattern. The supply - demand data was stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand was slowly accumulating. The market was affected by Trump's tariff measures [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were in a shock - adjustment pattern. The arrival at ports increased, and the overseas shipment decreased. The demand from blast furnaces in Tangshan was weakening [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal may be in a shock pattern. The US soybean crop rating was good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The trade concern re - emerged [24][25]. Palm Oil - Palm oil prices were relatively resistant to decline. The trade concern re - emerged, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the early days of July, providing support on the demand side [26][27]. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the trading data of various metal futures contracts on July 7, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [28]. Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and other metals, such as inventory, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price differentials [30][33][35].

当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普发信函给日韩及南非等14国威胁征税，随后，他又签署行政令，延 长"对等关税"暂缓期至8月1日。据悉，美国股市当日收盘下跌，目前市场担忧正在加剧。有投资者担 心，今年早些时候金融市场暴跌的混乱局面可能重现。南都、N视频此前推出《连线美国机构话关税》 专题报道，多家美国机构纷纷表示对特朗普关税政策的担忧。 美股市7月7日收盘下跌。 当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普宣称，将从8月1日起对来自14个国家的进口产品征收关税：其中日本、 韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、突尼斯：25%；波黑、南非：30%；印度尼西亚：32%；孟加拉国、塞 尔维亚：35%；柬埔寨、泰国：36%；老挝、缅甸：40%。 在美国总统特朗普7日向多国发出信函，表示将对进口商品征收新的关税后，美国股市当日收盘下跌。 目前，市场担忧正在加剧。投资者担心，若贸易战再次升温，今年早些时候金融市场暴跌的混乱局面可 能重现。 南都此前报道。 自4月初，南都记者独家连线美国服装与鞋类协会、美国家具家居协会、美国全国婚纱零售商协会以及 美国全国零售商联合会等多家机构，他们纷纷表示对特朗普关税政策的担忧。例如，美国全国零售商联 合会方面向南都 ...

特朗普（资料图） 据新华社消息，7月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上高调宣布：美国与越南达成贸易协议。仅仅72小时后，柬埔寨政府紧随其 后，于7月4日宣布与美国在关税谈判中达成协议。这两个东南亚国家在美国设定的7月9日对等关税暂缓期大限前，选择了快速妥协。 越南的协议堪称一场不对等的交易。根据特朗普的表述，越南将对美国商品全面取消关税，敞开市场大门。作为"回报"，美国将对越南输美 商品的关税从原先威胁的46%降至20%——但这仍远高于越南给予美国的零关税水平。更值得警惕的是，协议中明确规定：对经越南转口的 第三国商品将征收高达40%的重税。这一条款被广泛认为直指中国产业链。过去数年，为规避美国对华高关税，不少中企通过在越设厂组装 或贴牌再出口美国。40%的关税几乎掐断了这种迂回路径，迫使产业链直面冲击。 特朗普（资料图） 柬埔寨的让步同样充满无奈。这个被中国网友亲切称为"柬钢"的国家，此前面临美国开出的49%超高关税——这是特朗普政府针对东南亚国 家提出的最高税率。2024年柬埔寨262亿美元的出口总额中，近四成销往美国。如此重度依赖，使得柬埔寨在谈判中筹码有限。虽然协议具 体税率尚未公布，但分析 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [1] - Report Team: Five - Minerals Futures Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - U.S. soybeans are under pressure from good weather and potential export impacts of the trade war, but low valuation and biodiesel policy support keep them in a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal has high supply in the short - term, with active downstream pick - up and neutral - high feed enterprise inventory days, but there is uncertainty in forward procurement due to Sino - U.S. tariffs [2][5] Important Information - On Monday, U.S. soybeans fell 2.75%. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped, with the East China price at 2,820 yuan/ton. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.3322 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.3517 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days are 7.91 (+0.61) days, and oil mill soybean meal inventory exceeds 800,000 tons and is in an accumulation trend [2] - In the next two weeks, rainfall in U.S. soybean - producing areas is favorable, covering most areas. Brazilian soybean premiums have risen slightly recently, and the overall soybean import cost is stable for now [3] Trading Strategy - Suggest buying soybean meal on dips at the lower end of the cost range, and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end. Wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers from the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries [11] Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased. SPPOMA's production estimates show fluctuations. Brazilian soybean sales for 2024/25 and 2025/26 have reached certain percentages of expected production. Last week, the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.2544 million tons [7] - On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated. The EPA policy is favorable, but there are still bearish factors in Southeast Asian palm oil production. Pay attention to the U.S. biodiesel policy hearing on July 8 - 9 and production [8] Trading Strategy - View the oil market as range - bound [11] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The domestic sugar price may continue to decline due to low - price and small - quantity July contract delivery of raw sugar, high import profit after the decline of the external market price, and increased Brazilian exports to China in June [14] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The September contract closed at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.26%. Spot prices of various sugar groups decreased. In June, Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar, with an increase to China [13] Trading Strategy - The sugar price may continue to decline [14] Group 5: Cotton Core View - Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting area estimate is higher than expected, while in China, Sino - U.S. negotiation expectations support prices, but the strong basis is not conducive to downstream consumption and inventory reduction [17] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate. The September contract closed at 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, with a significant year - on - year decrease [16] Trading Strategy - Focus on the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [17] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The supply of eggs is large, and demand is cautious. The seasonal price increase is delayed, but the market has expectations of a price increase, leading to stagnant chicken culling. In the short - term, peak - season contracts are supported by expectations, while in the medium - term, the focus may return to supply and high premiums [20] Important Information - Most egg prices in the country declined. The main - producing area average price dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.54 yuan/jin. Supply growth is limited, and downstream sales are slow [19] Trading Strategy - Short - term: observe or conduct short - term operations; medium - term: wait for a rebound to short post - festival contracts [20] Group 7: Pigs Core View - Since late June, the spot price of pigs has rebounded, showing seasonal supply reduction. The second - fattening space can support the price, but in the medium - term, there are pressures from post - poned supply and hedging [23] Important Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Recently, the price decline has led to stronger price - holding sentiment among farmers, and the national pig price may stop falling and some areas may see a small increase [22] Trading Strategy - Short - term long positions may still have space, but in the medium - term, consider supply postponement and hedging pressure [23]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump on Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and four other countries has reignited concerns over trade tensions, leading to declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, as well as significant depreciation in emerging market currencies [1][2]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 49.37 points (0.79%) to close at 6229.98 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 422.17 points (0.94%) to 44406.36 points [3][8]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index also saw a decline, closing down 188.59 points (0.92%) at 20412.52 points [4]. - The Russell 2000 Index fell by 1.55% to 2214.23 points [5]. - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, increased by 1.77% to 17.79 [6]. Sector Performance - The biotechnology ETF dropped by 1.45%, while the semiconductor ETF fell by 1.36%. Other sectors such as global airlines and banking also saw declines of around 1.29% [7]. - The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks index decreased by 1.03%, with Tesla experiencing a notable drop of 6.79% [10]. Currency and Commodity Movements - Emerging market currencies faced their largest decline since April, with the Colombian, Brazilian, and Chilean currencies each dropping over 1.2% [1]. - The U.S. dollar strengthened, with the ICE dollar index rising by 0.31% to 97.479 points [20]. - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped reversal, initially dropping below $3300 before stabilizing [26]. International Market Impact - The European stock indices showed mixed results, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 index rising by 1.00% to 5341.54 points, while the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.19% [12][13]. - Oil prices fluctuated, with WTI crude oil futures closing up nearly 1.4% at $67.93 per barrel [25].