转自：新华财经 Gabelli Gold Fund的副投资经理近期接受媒体采访时表示，随着金价保持在3000美元以上，投资者开始 注意到金矿业的价值和潜在增长潜力只是时间问题。在他看来，虽然金价上个月触及3500美元之后有所 回落，但鉴于过去一年的表现，金价很难跌到3000美元下方，"市场正在建立新的基础"。他认为，不确 定性的持续存在将继续推动资金流向黄金，而随着美元进一步走软和利率下降，黄金也将受益。 正信期货：纽约期金预计介于每盎司3100至3500美元区间波动 新湖期货：短期美国关税政策的不确定性仍是影响金价走势的最关键因素 光大期货表示，美国财政部长贝森特重申，美国财政部正处于"预警轨道"，并重申美国政府永远不会违 约，并承诺财政部不会使用"花招"绕过债务上限。另外，美国财政部拍卖420亿美元10年期国债，整体 结果稳健，多个指标健康。随着美元指数下跌，亚洲多数货币出现异常升值，引起市场猜测，一些亚洲 国家准备让本国货币升值，以赢得美国的贸易让步。但这也引起金融市场的动荡，美元信用下降之下， 美元及美元资产下跌，黄金上涨。关注金价在历史高位下的表现，若能快速突破将进一步拓宽上行空 间。对于白银而言， ...

Core Points - The U.S. President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films, raising concerns among European filmmakers about the potential impact on their industry [1][3][4] - The move is seen as part of a broader trade war strategy, with fears that it could lead to cultural isolationism and retaliatory actions from other regions [1][3][7] Industry Impact - The film industry in the U.S. is reportedly facing a decline, with filming days in Los Angeles dropping from 3,901 in 2017 to 2,403 in 2024, a decrease of 38% [6] - Trump's administration has not provided clear legal grounds or implementation details for the proposed tariffs, leading to uncertainty within the industry [4][6] - The potential for retaliatory measures from other countries could further harm the U.S. film industry, which is still recovering from the impacts of the pandemic and other challenges [7] Reactions from Stakeholders - European filmmakers express confusion and concern, with some viewing the tariffs as a political maneuver that could harm both U.S. and European industries [1][3][7] - Members of the European Parliament are planning to meet with U.S. filmmakers to discuss the implications of the tariffs [3][4] - The announcement coincides with the upcoming Cannes Film Festival, where the topic is expected to be a significant point of discussion among filmmakers [6][7]

黄金方面，周二黄金价格总体呈现上涨的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3434.61位置，最低下跌至3323.14位置，收盘于3430.31位置。针对周二黄金在早盘价格 依托日线支撑进一步上涨，随后早盘首次测试高点回撤618位置后调整，但是后续再度发力上涨突破，最终当天收盘在高位，日线大阳收尾，后续则需要关 注日线及四小时支撑区间看上涨。只有后续下破后才会进一步看承压。 宏观面 当前全球经济与政治局势错综复杂，对市场与国际关系影响深远。经济上，美国面临多重压力。2 年期国债收益率下行，受贸易逆差和企业悲观展望影响， 市场担忧贸易战冲击。交易员预计美联储今年三次降息，首次或在 9 月，但投资者仍忧心政策不宽松，市场前景不明。国际经贸合作有新进展，印英达成贸 易协议，英美也将签协定，英部分商品可免特朗普加征关税。能源市场，欧佩克 + 超预期增产致油价下跌，沙特警告过剩成员国，哈萨克斯坦考虑履约。 政治领域，乌克兰批准与美矿产协议草案，阿曼与美、也门达成护航行自由协议，英国政府坚持削减福利政策。后市方面，市场关注美联储政策决定，预计 本次利率不变但未来存变数。同时，以色列与胡塞武装、印巴间的冲突摩擦，让地缘局势紧张，投资者需 ...

据金融界报道，皇家伦敦资产高级经济学家梅勒妮·贝克在研究报告中表示，仍预计美联储将于2025年实施两次降息，但降息时间不会早于下半年。她指 出："我们预计美联储会等到下半年再开启降息。"届时经济将出现更明确的放缓迹象。当前衰退风险已有所上升，全球及美国国内增长前景已然恶化。不 过，鉴于互征关税的暂停以及美国总统特朗普对市场压力作出回应的迹象，贝克目前仍属于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济衰退"阵营。 4月26日，策略师表示，目前市场想法与该行基本预测一致，即在今年余下时间内，关税将从目前公布的水平降低，而美联储将在今年进一步降息。然而， 由于贸易、经济及美联储政策的不确定性仍然高企，预期波动性也维持高企。不过，瑞银认为美国股市具有吸引力，目标年底续看5800点。瑞银目前的基本 预测是美联储今年将降息75至100个基点，但短期内，美联储的政策弹性似乎更加有限，因其必须在经济增长担忧与通胀复苏风险之间取得平衡。 美国康奈尔大学经济史学家尼古拉斯·穆尔德认为，相比于2017年特朗普首次挑起关税争端，中方此次准备更加充分，如今中方的承受力更强，也更有能力 应对这种升级的贸易战。商务部24日在回应美方"关税降温"说法时表示 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold long positions in gold; for silver, it is advisable to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio when appropriate [1]. - For base metals, different metals have different trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, such as maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy for copper and zinc, and waiting for downstream restocking for lead [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, the overall situation is relatively balanced, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended, and some specific contract positions need to be adjusted according to market conditions [4]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends and trading strategies, such as a bearish view on sugar and a wait - and - see approach for logs [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell short on rebounds, while the overall trend of oil prices is bearish [9][10]. - In the shipping industry, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic in the context of the trade war, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metals strengthened with international gold prices rising 2.9%. There are geopolitical events, economic data showing a widened US trade deficit, and changes in inventory. It is recommended to hold long gold positions [1]. - **Silver**: It is recommended to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio. After the holiday, gold rose while silver was weak, and the gold - silver ratio reached 102 [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front and a tight supply of copper ore, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2505 contract rose 0.44% yesterday. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term price has support from low inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the arrival of imported zinc and inventory changes [2][3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2505 contract fell 1.07% yesterday. The supply of raw materials is tight, and consumption is weak after the holiday. It is advisable to buy on dips after the price falls [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply may increase slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell. Supply is high, and demand has different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to sell short on the main contract or short the far - month contract [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell short on the 07 contract's rebounds [3]. - **Tin**: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front, a short - term range - bound trading strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract was flat. Inventory is decreasing, and the overall supply - demand is balanced. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and short positions in the coil - rebar spread can be held [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract was strong. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, and demand has limited growth space. It is recommended to close previous short positions, and aggressive investors can try to go long [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract was weak. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is different in the near and far term, and demand is weak. The domestic market is short - term bearish and mid - term follows the international market [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract was strong. Supply is tightening, and demand is increasing. The price is expected to rise [6][7]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Brazil's new season has a strong start, and the domestic market is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar, with a bearish trading strategy [7]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [7]. - **Logs**: The 07 contract rose slightly. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price fell yesterday. Supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is improving. The short - term price is falling, and the mid - term is in a weak stage [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract continued to fall. Supply is high, and the price is expected to be weak [7][8]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was range - bound. Supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline with resistance [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds in the short and long term [9]. - **PVC**: The price fell. Supply is increasing, and inventory is falling. It is recommended to hedge after the price returns to a high premium [9]. - **Glass**: The price fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **PP**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by tariffs. A short - term bearish strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the start - up rate of PDH plants [9][10]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by trade frictions. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds, with a short - term trading range of Brent at $55 - 65 per barrel [10]. - **Styrene**: The price fell slightly. Supply may accumulate inventory, and demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to follow the cost and be weak [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price fell. Supply has maintenance, and demand is affected by glass. The price is expected to fall, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak except for the alumina industry. The price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 0.1%. Trade war and geopolitical factors affect supply and demand. The overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomics**: China agrees to engage in trade talks with the US, and the market is awaiting the outcome of the meeting. The key for an unexpected outcome lies in whether there will be a full - scale interest rate cut. The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI shows a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9][10][11]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance. The market is affected by overseas interest - rate cut expectations, PMI data, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Caution is advised for investors, and those who are risk - averse may choose to wait and see [12]. - **Shipping to Europe**: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential. The focus is on the peak - season performance, and the market is waiting for the inflection point of cargo volume [13][14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, cotton prices are under pressure due to concerns about demand and supply improvements; sugar prices are expected to decline due to increased supply from Brazil; palm oil and soybean meal are recommended to be shorted; egg prices are expected to be weak due to increasing supply; apple prices may rise, and a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended; and for dates, short - positions should be gradually closed [15][16][20][21]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is in a multi - factor game, and fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. Plastics, methanol, etc. are recommended to be shorted. Rubber is in a short - term range - bound state. LPG's long - term price center may decline, but it is relatively strong compared to crude oil in the short term [24][26][27][35]. - **Metals**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile, and alumina may repair upward in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to supply - side issues. Steel and iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the medium term, and coking coal and coke prices are in a downward channel [38][40][42][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - The US has shown an intention to adjust tariff measures and hopes to talk with China. China has decided to engage in contact. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [9]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [9]. - The Minister of Finance states that China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident of achieving the 5% growth target in 2025 [9]. - The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI is 50.7, down 1.2 percentage points from March, and the composite PMI output index drops 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9]. - The "Fed whisperer" suggests that the Fed may postpone interest - rate cuts, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May [10]. - The US trade deficit in March increases by 14% month - on - month to a record high of $140.5 billion, with imports rising by 4.4% to a record $419 billion and exports rising slightly by 0.2% [10]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance [10]. - Influencing factors: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Risk - averse investors are advised to wait and see [12]. - Influencing factors: Loose capital at the beginning of the month, overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the upcoming press conference [12]. Shipping to Europe - Market outlook: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential due to failed price increases in March, April, and the first half of May and a downward - moving price center. The focus is on the peak - season performance [13]. - Fluctuation reasons: EU's additional tariffs on some Chinese goods, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the reaction of the market to shipping companies' price - increase attempts [14]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: Domestic cotton prices are weak due to concerns about actual orders and demand. The market is affected by international trade frictions and the supply situation in the US [15]. - Future outlook: Pay attention to macro - economic changes, US cotton planting and export situations, and domestic downstream orders and production starts [15]. Sugar - Logic and view: There is sufficient short - term supply, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The market is influenced by Brazil's production increase and concerns about global economic recession [16]. - Future outlook: The international sugar market is shifting its focus to Brazil's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Domestic sugar prices may be affected by import supplies and new - season sugarcane production [17][19]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. The risk factors include policy changes, abnormal weather, and soybean arrivals [20]. - Future outlook: Palm oil supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Soybean meal supply is increasing, and prices are under pressure [20]. Eggs - View: Adopt a bearish approach to egg futures. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [20][21]. - Future outlook: Egg prices are below the cost line, and the supply is likely to increase further due to large egg - laying hen capacity and high inventory [21]. Apples - View: Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The market is affected by the apple - setting situation in the western region [22]. - Future outlook: Spot prices in production and sales areas are stable and strong. The new - season apple production situation needs further evaluation [23]. Dates - View: Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. - Future outlook: The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal. The market is affected by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking and supply - demand situation in sales areas [23]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the market is in a multi - factor game between supply increase and potential trade - war easing [24]. - Future outlook: The market may be dominated by supply increase and economic recession. If the trade war eases, prices may rebound [24]. Fuel Oil - Outlook: The demand is affected by tariff policies, and the price is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. The market needs to evaluate the impact of the trade war on demand [26]. Plastics - View: Short L and PP. The prices are affected by the decline in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [27]. Rubber - Strategy: Short - term range - bound trading. Consider light - position short - term long positions with stop - losses during corrections. Pay attention to the change in the RU - NR spread [28]. Methanol - View: Adopt a bearish and volatile trading strategy. The market is affected by weak downstream demand and the international trade environment [29]. Caustic Soda - Outlook: The short - term demand improvement pushes up the futures price, but the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Adopt a range - bound trading strategy [30]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to improve marginally in May, but the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price rebound space is limited [31]. - Glass: The price is expected to be volatile or decline due to weak demand and high inventory. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal demand in May [32]. Asphalt - Future outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate around 3400 yuan/ton. The inventory is stable, and the price is supported by the cost [32]. Polyester Industry Chain - View: The price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the upside space is limited in the medium term. The market is affected by the trade war and supply - side adjustments [34]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Outlook: The long - term price may decline, but domestic PG is relatively strong compared to crude oil due to the trade war. The market is affected by supply, demand, and import costs [35]. Metals Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The price is expected to be volatile. The market is affected by Sino - US trade talks and demand resilience [38]. - Alumina: The price may repair upward in the short term due to cost reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, the long - term supply overhang remains [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to decline due to over - supply and difficulty in de - stocking. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [40]. - Polysilicon: The price is under pressure in the medium term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Steel and Iron Ore - Market view: The short - term price may be volatile, and the medium - term trend is expected to be weak. The market is affected by domestic policies, supply - demand, and cost factors [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: The prices are in a downward channel. There is no condition for going long until there is large - scale production reduction or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [44]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: Go long on an intraday basis. The price is affected by the reduction of settlement electricity fees [45]. - Manganese Silicon: Sell the 06 - contract put options. The market is affected by electricity fees and supply - demand [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean/Meal**: There is a strong trend of inventory accumulation for soybeans and soybean meal in the next three months. The cost of soybean arrivals in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress the price of soy - related products [3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats face significant downward pressure on prices in the short term, but may be supported in the medium term if the macro - economy stabilizes [9]. - **Sugar**: The supply shortage of raw sugar is alleviated, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [12]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs dominates the price, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [17]. - **Pigs**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and a short - selling strategy after short - term rebounds is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: Overnight US soybeans closed lower. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The soybean arrivals cost has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - term soybean meal prices are expected to decline, and far - month contracts may fluctuate weakly compared to US soybeans. Pay attention to trading rhythms [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The domestic spot basis of oils and fats fluctuated [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats face downward pressure in the short term. Pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. They may be supported in the medium term if the macro - economy stabilizes [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the first half of April [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. The price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated weakly. The US cotton planting rate was 21% as of May 4, 2025 [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and domestic inventory changes [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The domestic egg price was half - stable and half - falling. It is expected to be stable or decline today [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of eggs dominates the price. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [17]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable. The supply of live pigs may increase, and the price is expected to be weak in the near future [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little. A short - selling strategy after short - term rebounds is recommended [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday, caustic soda futures may be short - term oscillating stronger based on the holiday spot price trend and the new capacity launch of alumina. However, considering the return of 05 warehouse receipts to the spot market and the weakness of the demand side, caustic soda is still in a negative feedback pattern [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On May 7, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2498, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 61 [1] 3.2 Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 800 yuan/ton today, up 2.56% from the previous period. After the May Day holiday, most enterprises in Shandong had good sales, low inventory, and the price showed an upward trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in enterprise inventory and delivery volume data, and there is a possibility of further price increases [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Demand Side**: Alumina has low profit and high raw material caustic soda inventory. Although new capacity launch increases the rigid demand, the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda is weak. Non - aluminum demand is generally weak, and some industries such as viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and pulp and paper industries are greatly affected by the trade war, with obvious declines in production. Exports can support caustic soda, but the purchasing of foreign merchants is cautious due to the trade war [3] - **Supply Side**: There will still be new maintenance in May. Since the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturer's load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply. Although in the first quarter, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream was limited due to the high profit of caustic soda, if caustic soda and liquid chlorine decline, marginal device supply will be affected by profit [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2] for integers, indicating a neutral trend [4]

在贸易战阴影下，美联储对降息的态度愈加谨慎，触发降息需要就业等硬数据走弱。 5月8日北京时间凌晨2:00，美联储将公布5月利率决议，目前市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动，继续暂缓降息，即便面临着来自特朗普越来越大的降息施 压。 据追风交易台消息，高盛Jan Hatzius等分析师在近日报告中表示，与2019年贸易冲突期间相比，FOMC对降息似乎设置了更高的门槛。如今通胀和基于 调查的通胀预期都高得多，决策者需要看到更有说服力的经济放缓证据才会采取行动。 高盛研究认为，降息的最有力理由将是美联储官员认为数据表明失业率可能持续上升。这意味着需要看到失业率上升、工资增长疲软，以及公司趋于谨慎 或需求增长疲软等其他迹象。 "新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos也在最新报道中指出，面对经济衰退和通胀压力的两难困境，美联储将更倾向于"保通胀"，同时将密切关注劳动力市场的 变化，将就业数据作为其决策的重要参考。 更高的降息门槛：与2019年相比美联储更为谨慎 美联储官员近期反复强调了关税对其双重使命的风险，但表示他们处于有利位置可以等待进一步明确信息再采取行动。 高盛预计，在本周的5月FOMC会议上，鲍威尔预计将重申这一 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%， 比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升；中性。 2、基差：现货78210，基差610，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：5月6日铜库存减1675至195625吨，上期所铜库存较上周减27446吨至89307吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向下运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，关税情绪或有所好转，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 每日汇总 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 ...