液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-16 外盘出现回调，内盘波动增加 市场分析 1、\t12月15日地区价格：山东市场，4400-4500；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4580-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷595美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4706元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4628元/吨，跌77元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷599美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷589美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4659元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4582元/吨，跌76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期价格回落，但近期整体表现强于内盘，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现货方面，山东区域小幅下 跌，其余区域维稳为主，整体成交尚可，卖方库存无忧。近期随着丙烷原料进口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承 压，弹性需求受到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints Methanol - Yesterday, methanol futures fluctuated narrowly, with the basis slightly weakening and overall trading volume being fair. In the port area, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, with shipments slowing down. In the inland area, both supply and demand increased. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices after the reduction in shipments [3]. Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - Polyethylene's supply is increasing while demand is weakening after reaching its peak, and inventory remains flat this week. PP shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that the spring maintenance volume will be large, and the balance of the 05 contract is expected to improve. Pay attention to the restocking situation of the industrial chain after the macro - situation improves [6]. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude approaching the $60 per barrel mark. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and oil prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the EIA inventory data, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [8]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Pure benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement. It is expected that the downside space is limited, and the BZ2603 may fluctuate between 5300 - 5600. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is expected to fluctuate between 6400 - 6700 [10]. LPG - The price of LPG futures has increased, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. There is no clear overall view provided in the text [12]. Natural Rubber - The market is in a short - term stalemate between long and short positions. It is expected that rubber prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [14]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is continuously bottom - seeking. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Glass's spot and futures prices are falling, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [16]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. PVC's supply pressure remains, demand is sluggish, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to continue to be bearish [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX's short - term drive is limited and will follow oil prices to adjust. PTA's short - term absolute price drive is limited, and it may fluctuate between 4500 - 4800. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber's absolute price drive is limited and follows raw materials. The processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. Urea - The overall price of the urea futures and spot market declined slightly on Monday, and the trading atmosphere remained light. The supply is still at a high level, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the downstream demand progress and the device restart rhythm [20]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, the MA15 spread decreased, and the basis weakened. Regional spreads also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [2]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates changed [3]. Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and spreads such as L15, PP15, etc., also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream weighted operating rates changed [6]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices changed, and spreads such as Brent - WTI also changed. Refined oil prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [8]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Price and Spread**: Prices and spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed [10]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industrial chains changed [10]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads such as PG01 - 02 and PG02 - 03 changed. Spot prices and basis also changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery capacity utilization ratio, port inventory, and port capacity utilization ratio increased [12]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main refinery operating rate and some downstream operating rates changed [12]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices, basis, and inter - month spreads of natural rubber changed [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: Production, import, and export data of natural rubber in different regions changed, and operating rates of tire - related industries also changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased [14]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices changed, and basis also changed [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and glass melting volume data are provided, and inventory data of glass and soda ash changed [16]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, and spreads such as V2605 - V2601 also changed [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries, downstream operating rates, and inventory data changed [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed [18]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [18]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices and related spreads changed, and spot prices in different regions also changed [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production, inventory, and order data changed [20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为276元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为639.29元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent operation of PTA plants has been stable. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, at low prices, some domestic ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped below 70%. With the restart and load increase of Zhengdaikai, the start - up rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign MEG ships this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. Fundamentally, MEG shows a loose balance due to supply contraction this month, but there is a lack of confidence and obvious driving force in the market under the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation. It is expected that MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, the spot basis was relatively strong, and individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. Individual mainstream suppliers offered far - term cargoes. The December cargo was mainly traded at a discount of about 20 points to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 20. The spot price is 4615, the 01 contract basis is - 13, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and traded in a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The spot negotiation and trading this week and next week were carried out at a discount of 10 - 24 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and some traders were actively involved in spot quoting. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market strengthened. Recently arrived cargoes were traded at around 430 - 431 US dollars/ton, and individual traders participated in inquiries. The cargoes for shipment at the end of December and in January were negotiated at 434 - 435 US dollars/ton, and those for shipment at the end of January and in February were negotiated at around 438 - 439 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 3640, the 01 contract basis is - 11, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in the East China region is 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - No relevant content provided 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, EG consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory change from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from December 11 to December 15, 2025, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently, and it is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of about 10 days [8]. - Negative factors: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted after a short - term shutdown in late November. A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has been restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown in early October [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PP will continue to perform weakly. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, the upstream has locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales, so the willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The trading volume was 806,493, and the open interest changed by 193,360. The 01 - contract basis was - 154 (compared to - 49 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 76 (compared to - 39 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6040 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, and 6230 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded slightly, some coal - chemical plant prices were raised, and the cost support for goods strengthened. Some wire drawing offers from traders increased slightly, while most non - standard prices remained stable. The daily trading volume improved partially [1]. - Some PDH devices are planned to shut down in January, but the scale is not large for now. The year - end demand lacks elasticity, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited under the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The PP US dollar market prices partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement remains based on rigid demand with difficult trading improvement [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support for the PP cost side. Sentiment was slightly repaired on Friday night due to approaching position limits and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's mention of resisting "involution - style" competition [2]. - **Supply**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream new orders are weakening, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3].

Report Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides detailed fundamental data for industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot premiums and discounts, prices, profits, and inventory levels. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about the Yunnan electricity price bidding results [2]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2605 closing price is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan from T - 1, 325 yuan from T - 5, and 795 yuan from T - 22. PS2605 closing price is 58,030 yuan/ton, up 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Basis and Spot Premiums/Discounts**: Industrial silicon spot premiums are positive for different grades, while polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled material) is - 6030 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Prices and Profits**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22. Silicon plant profits are negative for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and 0.7 yuan from T - 22. [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 56.1 million tons, with an increase of 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 1.5 million tons from T - 22. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 29.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and 2.6 million tons from T - 22. [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with most remaining stable. [2] - **Polysilicon - related Products**: The prices of polysilicon - N - type recycled material, trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given, along with their price changes over different time periods. [2] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC is 13600 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is 1788 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 21600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from T - 1. [2] Macro and Industry News - Kunming Power Exchange Center announced the Yunnan electricity price bidding results for 2026. 1295 out of 1323 new - energy projects won the bid, with the clearing mechanism price for photovoltaic projects at 0.329 yuan/kWh and for wind power projects at 0.335 yuan/kWh. [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment outlooks: - **Strongly Bullish**: Platinum (2), Palladium (2) [31] - **Bullish**: Polysilicon (1) [44] - **Neutral**: Gold (0), Silver (0), Copper (0), Zinc (0), Lead (0), Aluminum (0), Nickel (0), Stainless Steel (0), Carbonate Lithium (0), Industrial Silicon (0), Iron Ore (0), Rebar (0), Hot - Rolled Coil (0), Ferrosilicon (0), Manganese Silicon (0), Coke (0), Coking Coal (0), Logs (0), MEG (0), LLDPE (0), PP (0), Caustic Soda (0), Pulp (0), Methanol (0), Urea (0), Styrene (0), LPG (0), Propylene (0), PVC (0), Fuel Oil (0), Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (0), Container Freight Index (European Line) (0), Short - Fiber (0), Bottle Chip (0), Offset Printing Paper (0), Pure Benzene (0), Peanut (0) [6][12][15][19][25][33][38][41][45][47][52][57][61][72][82][84][87][92][100][105][109][116][117][125][128][130][139][142][147][183] - **Bearish**: Tin (-1), Alumina (-1), Synthetic Rubber (-1), PX (-1), PTA (-1), Soda Ash (-1), Palm Oil (-1), Soybean Oil (-1), Sugar (-1), Live Hogs (-1) [24][25][80][72][114][159][167][181] 2. Core Views The report provides daily updates on the fundamentals, market trends, and news of various commodities, offering short - term investment suggestions for each commodity: - **Metals**: For precious metals, gold saw an expected interest rate cut, while silver was in high - level adjustment. Base metals showed different trends, such as copper with an external - strong - internal - weak price oscillation, and zinc in short - term correction [6][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: In the energy and chemical sector, PX faced a situation where demand was seasonally weakening but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. PTA was also in a high - level oscillation, while MEG's planned unplanned load reduction improved the inventory accumulation pressure and provided short - term support at the bottom [65][72]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, palm oil was in a weak oscillation due to unclear production cuts, and soybean oil was struggling to stabilize as US soybeans were performing weakly [62]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and macro - economic news. The trend intensity was neutral. The previous day's closing prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different changes, and trading volumes and open interests also fluctuated [6]. - **Silver**: It was in high - level adjustment. Similar to gold, its price, trading volume, and open interest data changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price showed an external - strong - internal - weak oscillation. Domestic and international copper futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories had corresponding changes. News such as China's economic data and Chile's copper production and investment also influenced the market [12]. - **Zinc**: There was a short - term correction. Key data such as prices, trading volumes, and premiums changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Demand was seasonally weakening, but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. There were changes in device operations, prices, and spreads. It was recommended to operate in the 6550 - 7000 range and take corresponding hedging measures [65][72]. - **PTA**: Although the cost - side PX supply - demand was tight, polyester was starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so there was limited upside space. It was recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [72][73]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Due to unclear production cuts, it was in a weak oscillation. Export data showed a decline compared to the previous month [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: As US soybeans were performing weakly, soybean oil was struggling to stabilize. NOPA data showed an increase in US soybean oil inventory [152][157].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On December 15, equity index futures and CGB futures declined; most commodities rose, with platinum and palladium leading the gains [2][4][11][13] - The PBoC, MOF, SASAC and other departments studied and conveyed the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference [1][3][37][38][39][40][41][42] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On Dec 15, equity index futures (IC fell by 0.9%, IM fell by 0.8%) and CGB futures (TL fell by 1.0%) declined; most commodities rose, with platinum (up 7.0%, positions +59.7% MoM), palladium (up 4.7%, positions +60.6% MoM) and poly - silicon (up 3.6%, positions +13.0% MoM) leading the gains. The top three decliners were apple (down 3.0%, positions +15.6% MoM), rapeseed oil (down 1.9%, positions +2.2% MoM) and copper (BC) (down 1.5%, positions -16.7% MoM) [11][12][13][14] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Poly - Silicon - On Dec 15, poly - silicon rose by 3.6% to 58,030 yuan per ton. A “Poly - Silicon Platform Company” was registered on Dec 9, heating up state reserve purchase expectations. But its fundamentals are weak due to terminal installation pressure. Supply was affected by the southwest dry season in Nov (output 115,000 tons, -14.5% MoM), and is expected to be weak in Dec. Demand is weak due to new energy power price reform and the downstream off - season. Inventory is growing, and warehouse receipts may rebound [17][18][19] 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On Dec 15, coking coal rose by 3.2% to 1,061 yuan per ton. Supply from major domestic producing areas like Shanxi is tight due to production task completion and underground factors, while Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high. Demand: coke output fell slightly, but mid - and downstream purchases increased, slowing upstream inventory accumulation. Recently, prices were weak, but downstream replenishment demand is increasing as the year - end approaches, and futures showed signs of an oversold rebound on Friday night [24][25][26] 1.2.3 Aluminium Oxide - On Dec 15, aluminum oxide rose by 3.0% to 2,537 yuan per ton. Market fundamentals are weak, with spot/futures prices falling. After Friday night's rebound, the main contract rebounded over 4% by morning. Key issues are high supply (with minor short - term capacity fluctuations), rising inventory (due to limited downstream demand growth), and falling costs (weak raw material prices). Loss - driven production cuts are unlikely, and further observation of industrial chain production cuts is needed [31][32][33] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - PBoC: Continue the prudent and accommodative monetary policy, accelerate financial supply - side structural reform, use tools like RRR cuts and rate reductions, maintain ample liquidity, keep financing costs low, and support the real economy [37][41] - SASAC: Central enterprises should proactively advance major projects, support domestic demand expansion, ensure stable supply and prices of basic products, and resist “involutionary competition” [38][39][41] - MOF: Maintain necessary fiscal deficit, total debt scale and expenditure next year, improve policy precision, use government bonds, and support “two majors” and “two news” initiatives [40][41][42]

January soybeans are presently in a three-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart. That’s keeping the speculator bears confident that prices will continue to trade sideways to lower in the near term. Recent U.S. soybean sales to China, as reported by the USDA, have not been that supportive for soy complex futures prices because that news has already been factored into prices following the U.S.-China trade truce several weeks ago that outlined more China purchases of U.S. soybeans. In fact, soy trade ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures contract has experienced a 1% increase, currently priced at 1065.50 yuan [1] Group 1 - The coking coal continuous main contract rose by 1% on December 15 [1] - The current price of the coking coal contract is reported at 1065.50 yuan [1]