Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - October 14, 2025: Macro Impact Reduces, Market Drops Significantly" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2902, down 30; 05 contract at 2728, down 18; 09 contract at 2844, down 14. Spot basis varied in different regions [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2348, down 44; 05 contract at 2291, down 24; 09 contract at 2380, down 23. Spot basis also changed in different regions [4]. Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: 15 - spread was 174, down 12; 59 - spread was - 116, down 4; 91 - spread was - 58, up 16 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: 15 - spread was 57, down 20; 59 - spread was - 89, down 1; 91 - spread was 32, up 21 [4]. Cross - Variety Spread - **Soy - Rapeseed 01 Spread**: 554, up from 540; 09 spread was 464, up from 455. Oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.839, up from 2.820 [4]. Spot Spread - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal**: 414, down 4; Rapeseed Meal - Sunflower Meal was 260, down 20; Soybean Meal - Sunflower Meal was 624, up 6 [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Market - The US has suspended report publishing, with limited new information. Old - crop ending stocks were slightly raised, and new - crop supply increased slightly due to a small cut in yield but an increase in planted area. The market is mainly affected by exports [5]. South American Market - South American old - crop is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about exports [5]. International Market - International soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in major产区' crushing volume, while imports of major importers increase slightly [5]. Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: As of October 10, soybean crushing was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%. Soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, up 6.37% from last week and 14.29% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, down 9.26% from last week but up 6.17% year - on - year [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: As of October 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. Rapeseed inventory was 18,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 11,500 tons, down 15,300 tons [7]. Group 4: Macro Analysis - Sino - US communication has reduced trade conflict concerns, but the Madrid negotiation provided little clear information on beans. With China's decreasing demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the upside of the domestic soybean meal market is limited [8]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The market is falling. Argentina's increased exports have squeezed US soybeans' export space, but there is still support for US soybeans. The upside of US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. Domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, and the pressure may continue. Rapeseed meal has low inventory but weak demand, and its price lacks volatility [9]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Hold short positions in far - month soybean meal contracts. - **Arbitrage**: Long M11 and short M01. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle structure [10]

来源：财经网 随着特朗普政府持续释放缓和信号寻求谈判。美股周一收高，三大股指均挽回上周五的部分失地。道指 反弹将近600点，标普对上周五的失地收复大约一半。半导体ETF收涨超4.4%，领跑美股行业ETF，标 普科技板块涨约2.5%。中概指数收涨3.2%。 黄金涨势继续，10月13日纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨2.27%，报4109.17美元/盎司，全天持续、平滑地震荡 上行，一度刷新历史高位至4117.13美元。COMEX黄金期货涨3.21%，报4128.80美元/盎司，一度涨至 4137.20美元创盘中历史新高。费城金银指数收涨4.76%，报309.59点，突破10月8日所创收盘历史最高 位309.12点。纽约证交所ARCA金矿开采商指数收涨4.00%，报2201.05点，逼近10月8日所创收盘历史最 高位2207.52点。 美国总统特朗普当地时间10日威胁对中国商品大规模加征关税，包括对关键软件实施出口管制。特朗普 表示，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，美国将从11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关税。美股 市场因此出现大幅波动，期权交易量创下历史纪录。 在此后的60多个小时内，美国政府立场大幅转向。特朗普暗 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market rebounded after a sharp decline last Friday, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.29% to surpass 46,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 1.56% and 2.2% respectively [3] - The Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, also rebounded by 3.2% [3] Hong Kong and A-shares Market - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index open lower by 2.5% and 3.9% respectively, but the declines narrowed, closing at 3,889 points (down 0.19%) and 13,231 points (less than 1% decline) [4] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index opening down 656 points and hitting a low of 25,336 points, but rebounded to close at 25,889 points, down 500 points or 1.5% [4] - The tech sector in Hong Kong showed weakness, with Kuaishou down over 4%, and Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan all declining by more than 1% [4] Stock Performance Highlights - WuXi AppTec (02359) was the worst performer among constituents, dropping nearly 6%, while Xiaomi (1810), Sands (01928), and Sunny Optical (02382) all fell by over 5% [4] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) rose by nearly 3.4%, and Zijin Mining (02899) benefited from rising gold prices, increasing by 1.7% [4] Market Sentiment and Support Levels - Short-term performance of the Hong Kong stock market will continue to be influenced by the latest news on US-China trade, but there is strong market interest in entering, providing some support [5] - Despite a six-day decline, the Hang Seng Index regained the 50-day moving average at 25,802 points, indicating strong support at this level [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Industry is experiencing a significant stock price increase, with China Shipbuilding Defense (中船防务) rising nearly 6% amid investigations related to U.S. 301 tariffs and potential impacts on the shipping and shipbuilding sectors [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - China Shipbuilding Defense's stock price rose by 4.72% to HKD 15.75, with a trading volume of HKD 80.2174 million [1] Group 2: Government Actions - The Ministry of Transport, in collaboration with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is investigating the impact of U.S. 301 investigations on China's shipping and shipbuilding industries, focusing on potential discriminatory measures against Chinese entities [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, China's countermeasures against the U.S. could present historical opportunities for the shipping industry; if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted, there could be a surge in Chinese shipbuilding orders [1] - The potential for U.S.-China negotiations to lead to the cancellation of the 301 investigation would be beneficial for the shipbuilding sector; additionally, if China begins purchasing U.S. oil, it may extend shipping distances [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5][6] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass suggests buying on dips [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions on dips; aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin suggests range trading; gold suggests buying on dips; silver suggests range trading [1][10][11][17][18][19][20][21] - **Energy and chemical industry**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash suggests a short - selling strategy [1][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750; apples and jujubes are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agricultural and livestock industry**: Pigs and eggs suggest shorting on rallies; corn suggests wide - range oscillations; soybean meal suggests range oscillations; oils are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][40][43][45][47][49] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has short - term fluctuations due to factors such as Trump's remarks on tariffs and geopolitical events, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The long - term trends of industries like AI in China and the US are clear, and the US monetary and fiscal policies are in force [5] - In the commodity market, different products have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment impacts 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to oscillate and are long - term optimistic. Due to trade concerns, geopolitical events, and other factors, there may be short - term fluctuations, but full - scale panic is unlikely. Investors can either wait for better opportunities or lock in positions [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They should be kept under observation. Trump's remarks on retaliatory measures may cause short - term oscillations [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to oscillate. Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend [8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to oscillate. Currently, the price is under the cost of electric - arc furnace valley electricity and long - process production. In October, the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [8] - **Glass**: It suggests buying on dips. Although the current market has some supply - demand problems, under the background of policy expectations, the glass price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. Due to the intensification of Sino - US trade tensions, the price has dropped significantly recently, but the long - term supply - demand situation is still optimistic [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is entering the peak season. Long positions can be held [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to oscillate. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has some uncertainties for the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of nickel is in surplus, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - **Gold and silver**: They are expected to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm payroll data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are rising. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price pullbacks [19][20][21] 3.4 Energy and chemical industry - **PVC**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is under pressure, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the pressure at 4850 [22][23] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the range of 2380 - 2530. The market is affected by factors such as upstream inventory and downstream demand [24][25] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it focuses on the range of 6600 - 6900 [26][27] - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply growth expectation is strong, and it focuses on the support at 15000 [28][29] - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating [30] - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is increasing [32] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The L2601 contract focuses on the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract focuses on the support at 6600 [31][32][33] - **Soda ash**: The 01 contract suggests a short - selling strategy. The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the inventory is accumulating [33][34] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand situation has some changes, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US relations [35][36] - **PTA**: It suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, the price is weakly oscillating [36] - **Apples and jujubes**: They are expected to be strongly oscillating. Apples are affected by weather, and jujubes are affected by factors such as production areas and market demand [37][38] 3.6 Agricultural and livestock industry - **Pigs**: They are overall under pressure. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the price is weak in the short - term. Different contracts have different investment strategies [40][42] - **Eggs**: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term supply is sufficient, the demand is weakening, and different contracts have different investment strategies [43][44][45] - **Corn**: It suggests range oscillations. It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is affected by factors such as new crop listing and demand [45][46] - **Soybean meal**: The rebound is limited. The US soybeans are affected by factors such as harvest pressure and Sino - US talks, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations [47][48] - **Oils**: They are in high - level adjustment. Short - term回调 risks are increasing, and it is recommended to wait for the end of the回调 before considering long positions [49][50][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - **Global Climate**: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - **US Biodiesel**: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - **Global Rapeseed**: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - **Soybean Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December**: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Spread**: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - **Rapeseed Market Supply**: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - **National Feed Production**: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - **Pig Market**: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - **Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming**: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - **Meat Duck Inventory**: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - **Soybean Meal Market**: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - **Rapeseed Meal Market**: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter, with possible reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the initiation of treasury bond trading operations. Market liquidity is expected to return to a reasonable and ample level, strongly supporting treasury bond futures prices. Treasury bond futures prices are likely to remain strong before the end of October, and investors are advised to actively seek long - position opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Futures Market - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2512 contract fell 0.06%, and the trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 4.8bp, DR007 rate dropped 7.3bp, and GC007 rate dropped 0.6bp [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally rose. The 10Y treasury bond yield increased 0.69bp to 1.85%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 38.74bp [2]. Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield dropped 9bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield dropped 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield dropped 0.4bp [2]. Macro News - On October 11, the central bank conducted 1160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 1160 billion yuan. This week, there will be 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits, and 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases maturing [3]. - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban on exports. China firmly opposes the US threat of imposing a 100% tariff and will take corresponding measures if the US persists [3]. - US Vice - President Vance signaled a willingness for rational negotiation between Trump and China [3]. - The approved loan amount for real - estate white - list projects in China has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, and 15 provincial - level regions have seen second - hand housing trading volumes exceed new housing volumes [3]. - South Korea's Deputy Prime Minister of Economy will meet with the US Treasury Secretary to discuss bilateral tariff issues [3]. - Ray Dalio warned that the US government's debt is growing too fast, with the total national debt reaching 37.85 trillion US dollars [3]. Industry Information - On October 11, most money - market interest rates declined. The weighted average rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for 1 - day and 7 - day tenors reached new lows since August 2023 and January 2023 respectively [3]. - On October 12, US treasury bond yields generally declined [3].

Macro Insights - The current round of tariffs by Trump is aimed at accumulating leverage for future negotiations, with agricultural products and rare earths being key pressure points for the U.S. [4] - The likelihood of a complete decoupling in U.S.-China trade is low, as neither side desires this outcome, but the process towards TACO (Trade Agreement with China) is expected to be complex due to structural differences in interests [4] Fixed Income - In the period from September 28 to October 11, 2025, a total of 119 credit bonds were issued, amounting to 141.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 75.82% compared to the previous period [5] - The total transaction volume of credit bonds was 855.28 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 47.12% [5] Banking Sector - The demand for credit remains weak, leading to a continued suppression of credit issuance, with social financing growth expected to decline from a high base [6] - M1 growth may continue to rise on a low base, while M2 growth is anticipated to decrease on a high base, indicating an increase in the degree of monetary activation [6] Rare Earth Industry - The supply of rare earths is further constrained by technical export controls, while demand remains resilient with potential new growth points [7] - The valuation of rare earths is supported by their inherent value as resources and strategic metals, leading to a bullish outlook for the rare earth permanent magnet sector [7] Copper Industry - China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month in September, with potential pressure on copper prices due to Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 [8] - Despite tight supply, copper prices are expected to rise in the future as downstream demand from sectors like power grids and air conditioning rebounds in Q4 [8] Oil and Chemical Sector - OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased significantly following a ceasefire agreement [9] - As of October 10, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $62.09 and $58.24 per barrel, respectively, reflecting declines of 3.5% and 4.0% from the previous week [9] Basic Chemicals - The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded for groundbreaking contributions in the field of Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs), indicating a promising outlook for industrialization in this area [10]

Core Viewpoint - Trump has restarted the tariff negotiations, indicating that the U.S. economy is showing signs of bottoming out, which provides leverage for future negotiations with China [4][5]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy is paving the way for potential rate cuts, which could support economic recovery [4]. - Recent data on consumer spending and manufacturing suggests stabilization in the U.S. economy, enhancing Trump's confidence in imposing additional tariffs [4]. Trade Agreements - Trump has reached preliminary trade agreements with several countries, including Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian nations, allowing him to focus on negotiations with China [4][5]. Agricultural Impact - China is a significant importer of U.S. agricultural products, particularly soybeans, and any halt in purchases could adversely affect U.S. agricultural states, influencing the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [4][5]. Political Landscape - The current U.S. government shutdown highlights severe partisan conflicts, which may hinder the implementation of structural agricultural subsidies [4]. - The outcome of the midterm elections and ongoing legal challenges regarding tariffs will also impact the pace of tariff negotiations [4]. Market Reactions - The market interprets Trump's tariff strategy as a means to accumulate leverage for future negotiations, despite the potential risks associated with a complete decoupling of U.S.-China trade [5].

Group 1: Political and Economic Context - Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, due to dissatisfaction with rare earth controls[1] - The geopolitical pressure on the U.S. has eased following a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Palestine conflict, allowing Trump to refocus on U.S.-China trade[1] - The U.S. government is still in a shutdown, with predictions that it may last until at least October 15, 2025, prompting Trump to shift attention to external conflicts[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, U.S. stock markets, copper, oil, and the dollar index all declined, while gold prices increased by 3.38% to $4017 per ounce[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8.70 basis points to 4.032%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.43 basis points to 3.501%[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively, indicating a strong market reaction to the tariff threat[2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The impact of the new tariffs on U.S.-China trade is expected to be limited due to a prior rush in trade activity earlier in the year and the upcoming seasonal slowdown[1] - Inflation risks are rising again, particularly for imported goods from China, which may complicate future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[1] - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions show a divide on future interest rate paths, with some officials concerned about persistent inflation risks[2] Group 4: Future Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential retaliatory measures from China and the escalation of trade conflicts into critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors[3] - The upcoming APEC meeting may provide a platform for high-level discussions between the U.S. and China, which could influence market sentiment[3] - Long-term, the experience from the 2018-2019 trade conflicts suggests that tariff threats will likely continue and may fluctuate[3]