证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251012 如何看待本轮特朗普的关税威胁？ 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ◼ 海外政治：特朗普再度威胁对华加征关税，未来关注双方相关反制措施 和高规格会晤进展。美东时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普在社交媒体上表示因 不满稀土管制相关措施，美国将自 11 月 1 日起对华额外加征 100%关 税，并对关键软件实行出口管制。市场因此再度选择避险交易：美股美 铜美油、美债利率、美元指数均下跌，黄金震荡向上。从背景上看，本 次推动特朗普再度升级关税威胁的原因包括：①外部压力暂时缓解。10 月 9 日巴以双方达成停火协议，美国在外部的地缘政治冲突压力有所缓 解，这使得特朗普能够将更多精力转移到中美贸易这一重要外交事务 上。②内部矛盾需要转移。当前美国政府仍处于停摆状态，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等主流博彩机构均预期停摆时长将延续至 10 月 15 日之后。 这意味着美国军人的工资将延期发放。因此特朗普需要将内部矛盾转移 至外部以缓和国内局势可能迎来的不稳定因素。从影响上看，①经济方 面，由于此前对等关税的威胁，中美贸易已在今年 1-9 月完成抢跑，叠 ...

菜籽类市场周报 温度下降刚需下滑 菜粕继续走低 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：偏多参与为主，关注中加贸易情况。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货冲高回落，01合约收盘价10061元/吨，较前一周+17元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：加拿大统计局报告显示，加菜籽作物产量预估为2000万吨，这将是2018年以来最高水 平。且加菜籽进入收割期，丰产逐步兑现，对加菜籽价格带来一定压力。其它方面，印尼B50生 柴政策取得新的进展，利好棕榈油市场，但MPOB数据显示，截至9月末，马来西亚的棕榈油库存 为较前月增加7.2%，至236万吨，已经连续七个月增长，且库存水平接近约两年来最高水平。国 内方面，对加拿大菜籽反倾销政策的初裁落地，预计四季度进口菜籽供应将结构性收紧，菜油也 将继续维持去库模式 ...

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-10-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 02 油脂：短期跟随外盘补涨，中长期偏强对待 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月30日，华东现货报价2890元/吨，月度报价下跌80元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2928元/吨，月度下跌127元/吨；基差报价01-40 元/吨，基差价格上涨50元/吨。月度受中美贸易预期改善以及阿根廷大豆出口税取消影响，美豆承压下行；国内进口成本回落叠加供应预期改 善，价格大幅下跌，现货受制于供应压力，表现持续偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段，受3-5价差利润丰厚，农民加快种植，截至9月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Rebound**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil [1] - **Stronger Operation**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Cotton, live pigs [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Red dates [1] Core Views - **Bean Meal**: Short - term rebound expected due to potential US - China trade talks on soybeans, post - holiday market recovery in China, and dry planting weather in Brazil [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, with multiple factors in a tug - of - war. It is likely to follow the trend of bean meal as social inventory may decrease during the holiday [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The B50 biodiesel policy in Indonesia and reduced inventory in Malaysia are expected to boost domestic palm oil prices after the holiday [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish. Influenced by the US - China trade situation, Brazilian weather, and the palm oil market, it is expected to open higher after the holiday [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to run strongly due to low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment, and the entry into the consumption season [1]. - **Cotton**: Bearish. Supply pressure from new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, weak demand, and no significant support from the spot market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. New fruit may face pressure after listing. There may be volatile price movements before November, and short - selling opportunities on price rebounds are recommended [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish. High supply and expected weakening demand may lead to further decline in futures prices after the holiday. Short - allocation and reverse spreads are recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 938.5 million tons, up 40.2 million tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, up 3.63% week - on - week, and bean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, down 4.86% week - on - week [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The national average spot price was 3018.57 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 2.6 million tons, down 2 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average spot price was 2581.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national key region commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, down 5.62% week - on - week, up 9.16% year - on - year [8]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The national average price was 9185 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [7]. Cotton - **Market Data**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 103.15 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Spinning mill operating rates were relatively stable, and weaving mill operating rates declined slightly [9][11]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (3128B) dropped 103 yuan/ton during the holiday [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: Mysteel estimated new - season production at 56 - 62 million tons. 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory was 9203 tons, down 44 tons week - on - week [15]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10820 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Spot prices were generally stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: National sample enterprises' monthly生猪存栏量 was 3782.4 million, up 0.51%, and monthly出栏量 was 1117.72 million, up 2.39% [17]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract Lh2511 was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. National average spot price of external ternary pigs dropped to 12.51 yuan/kg during the holiday [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated at 1.81 million tons, down 2.35% month - on - month. Indonesia plans to implement B50 next year, which may lift the palm oil price after the holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: Sino - US negotiation issues have no substantial progress, and there is no news of China purchasing US soybeans. The abundant supply of US soybeans has pressured the CBOT soybean price, and US soybean oil may follow the downward trend of raw material prices [1]. Meal - During the National Day holiday, US soybeans fluctuated. China has not lifted the ban on US soybean purchases. Brazil's new soybean planting is progressing smoothly, suppressing the upside of US soybeans. In Q4 2025, China's soybean supply is sufficient, but there is a supply gap expected in Q1 2026, which may support the price of the 2601 contract. The uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade policies [2]. Sugar - Internationally, in the first half of September, sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased by 15.72% year - on - year. The raw sugar price has limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. Domestically, new sugar has been listed, and the sugar price is in the undervalued area, with limited room for further decline, expected to remain range - bound [4]. Corn - During the National Day, new - season corn harvest increased, and the spot price declined. With the concentrated listing of corn in mid - to - late October, the price is under pressure. The demand is weak currently, but there may be seasonal restocking needs later. Corn will maintain a weak trend [5]. Pork - During the National Day, the pig price dropped significantly, but there were signs of stabilization at the end of the holiday. In the short term, the spot price may stabilize, but in the long term, the supply pressure will continue, and the policy to reduce production capacity needs time to take effect. The futures operation is to short on rallies [9]. Cotton - US cotton is in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestically, due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand, the cotton price is weak. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, and the overall cotton price is expected to be bearish [11]. Eggs - In October, the egg market will be in a pattern of relatively high supply and temporarily weak demand. The egg price will continue to decline in a volatile manner [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On September 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8380 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, and the futures price of P2601 was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10250 yuan/ton, up 0.49%, and the futures price of OI601 was 10044 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 244, up 2.52%; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil was 192, up 10.34%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil was 523, up 3.98% [1]. Meal - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 190, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 104, up 11.83% [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5493 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5458 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.32 cents/pound, down 1.92% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Industry Data**: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales volume was 10 million tons, up 12.87%. In Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, up 4.59%; the monthly sales volume was 260,200 tons, down 27.14% [4]. Corn - **Price Changes**: The price of corn 2511 was 2143 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2240 yuan/ton, down 1.75%. The price of corn starch 2511 was 2468 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [5]. - **Profit and Spread**: The north - south trade profit was 124 yuan/ton, up 47.62%; the import profit was 496 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The 11 - 3 spread of corn was - 1, down 110.00%; the 11 - 3 spread of corn starch was 7, down 66.67% [5]. Pork - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract for live pigs was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; the price of the 2601 contract was 12825 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The 11 - 1 spread was - 470, up 4.08% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price in Shandong was 12700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [9]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13245 yuan/ton, down 0.86%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 64.94 cents/pound, up 0.78% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 14860 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the CC Index 3128B was 14759 yuan/ton, up 0.01% [11]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, down 20.6%; the industrial inventory was 0.8621 million tons, down 3.4%. The import volume was 70,000 tons, up 40% [11]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the 11 - contract for eggs was 3038 yuan/500KG, up 0.73%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3360 yuan/500KG, up 0.24%. The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled hen price was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.64% [14]. - **Profit and Ratio**: The egg - feed ratio was 2.85, up 7.95%; the breeding profit was 3.20 yuan/feather, up 135.13% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, MPOA estimates Malaysia's September 2025 palm oil production at 1.81 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Analysts predict an average production of 1.79 million tons, a 3.3% decrease. Exports are estimated at 1.427 million tons, a 7.7% increase, and inventory at 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% decrease. Indonesia's plan to implement B50 bio - diesel may raise the palm oil price after the holiday. In the soybean oil market, due to the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations and sufficient US soybean supply, CBOT soybean prices are under pressure, and US soybean oil may follow suit [1]. Meal Products - During the National Day holiday, US soybeans fluctuated and strengthened slightly. Although there are expectations of negotiations, China has not resumed US soybean purchases. Brazil's new soybean planting is progressing smoothly, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December, supporting Brazilian premiums. China's soybean supply is sufficient in Q4 2025 but may be short in Q1 2026. The uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade policies. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. The M2601 contract is expected to be cautiously bullish in the 2900 - 2950 range [2]. Sugar - Internationally, in the first half of September, Brazil's central - southern sugar production increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. The raw sugar price has limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. Domestically, the new sugar season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and after the holiday stocking, the market is quiet. Considering natural disasters, the domestic sugar price is in a relatively undervalued area, with limited room for further decline, and is expected to remain range - bound between 5400 - 5600 [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - During the National Day holiday, new - season corn harvest increased, and the spot price decreased with the supply. With the concentrated listing of corn in mid - October, the price is under pressure due to good harvest expectations and lower production costs. The demand is currently weak, but feed and processing enterprises may replenish inventory seasonally. Corn is expected to remain weak during the concentrated listing period [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the National Day holiday, pig prices dropped significantly, with spot prices below 6 yuan per catty. The pressure on supply will continue to be released in the fourth quarter due to increased出栏 volume and weight gain. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time to show results. The spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy for the futures market is to short on rallies [9]. Cotton - US cotton prices are oscillating weakly near a six - month low due to the lack of key crop data after the US government shutdown. Domestically, the supply increase and weak demand have put downward pressure on cotton prices. During the National Day holiday, the purchase price of cottonseed stabilized, but the procurement of lint by textile enterprises almost stopped. Overall, the cotton price is expected to remain bearish [11]. Eggs - In October, the egg market is expected to have relatively high supply and weak demand. The egg price is likely to continue to decline due to high inventory levels, lack of strong demand after the holidays, and cautious market sentiment [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: From September 29 to 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil dropped from 8400 to 8380 (- 0.24%), the futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8150 to 8140 (- 0.12%), and the basis of Y2601 fell from 250 to 240 (- 4.00%). For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree dropped from 9110 to 9060 (- 0.55%), the futures price of P2601 decreased from 9234 to 9228 (- 0.06%), and the basis of P2601 fell from - 124 to - 168 (- 35.48%). The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil rose from 10200 to 10250 (0.49%), the futures price of OI601 decreased from 10093 to 10044 (- 0.49%), and the basis of OI601 increased from 107 to 206 (92.52%) [1]. - **Inventory and Trade**: Palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease in September. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port changed, with the cost increasing by 1.09% and the profit decreasing by 23.89% [1]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained at 2940, the futures price of M2601 decreased from 2933 to 2928 (- 0.17%), and the basis of M2601 increased from 7 to 12 (71.43%). The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 increased from 2416 to 2421 (0.21%), and the basis of RM2601 decreased from 84 to 79 (- 5.95%) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: China has not resumed US soybean purchases, and Brazil's new soybean supply is expected to increase. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: The futures price of SR2601 increased from 5479 to 5493 (0.26%), and SR2605 increased from 5437 to 5458 (0.39%). The ICE raw sugar futures price decreased from 16.64 to 16.32 (- 1.92%). The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged [4]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 12.87% respectively. The cumulative national sugar sales rate increased by 0.74%, and the cumulative Guangxi sugar sales rate increased by 0.70%. The national industrial sugar inventory increased by 5.24%, and the Guangxi industrial sugar inventory decreased by 2.22% [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price Changes**: The futures price of C2511 decreased from 2159 to 2143 (- 0.74%), the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price decreased from 2280 to 2240 (- 1.75%), and the basis decreased from 121 to 97 (- 19.83%). The futures price of CS2511 decreased from 2483 to 2468 (- 0.60%), and the basis increased from 77 to 92 (19.48%) [5]. - **Trade and Inventory**: The north - south corn trade profit increased by 47.62%, and the import profit increased by 0.71%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 35.73% [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price Changes**: The futures price of LH2511 increased from 12295 to 12355 (0.49%), and LH2601 increased from 12785 to 12825 (0.31%). The spot price in Henan decreased from 12550 to 12450, in Shandong from 12850 to 12700, and in Sichuan from 12050 to 11850 [9]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.79%, and the number of sows in stock decreased by 0.10% [9]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: The futures price of CF2605 decreased from 13360 to 13245 (- 0.86%), and CF2601 decreased from 13350 to 13215 (- 1.01%). The ICE US cotton futures price increased from 64.44 to 64.94 (0.78%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased from 14942 to 14860 (- 0.55%) [11]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial cotton inventory decreased by 20.6%, industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, and imports increased by 40%. The inventory days of yarn and grey fabric decreased, and the export of textile yarn, fabric, and clothing showed different trends [11]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: The futures price of JD11 increased from 3016 to 3038 (0.73%), and JD01 increased from 3352 to 3360 (0.24%). The egg - producing area price decreased from 3.44 to 3.42 (- 0.64%), and the basis decreased from 425 to 381 (- 10.38%) [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased from 4.67 to 4.64 (- 0.64%), and the egg - feed ratio increased from 2.64 to 2.85 (7.95%). The breeding profit increased from - 9.11 to 3.20 (135.13%) [14].

这一连串操作，多半就是想换回民众的目光，别让大家只盯着政府关门那点破事。选举近了，白宫气氛跟锅里炸油条似的，谁都怕自家位子不保。特朗普急 着找个新话题，好绕开和民主党的僵局。 可问题是，中方会为这场戏捧场吗？大概率是没戏。双方真正关心的东西根本就不一样中方想聊的是大格局，包括两国关系、关税协议、台湾问题；特朗普 却执着于一粒豆，谈判双方一南一北，谁跟谁都对不上话。 10月初，美国政府一停摆，压力可就像秋风扫落叶似的，朝着政客们扑面而来。这阵子，谁都不好过，连特朗普在网上的态度都变了不少。密歇根州的州长 惠特默，前脚刚到多伦多，话匣子一开就把中美贸易摆上桌，话里话外都是冲着特朗普来的。她直言，这些关税政策简直一锅端，不光对中国动手，还连累 了美国最亲的邻居加拿大。人家还说了，冲着加拿大硬刚，最后折腾的其实是美国自己，让中国捡了便宜。 州长埋怨归埋怨，特朗普这时候也没闲着。最近美国媒体一通批斗，他立马在社交平台上发声，摆出一副豆农守护者的形象，说什么中国不买美国大豆，让 美国农民吃了苦头，他绝不坐视不管。还宣称要把关税的钱割出一块专门补贴豆农，等着下月见韩国领导人的时候，也会要求中方按照协议多买点自家大 豆，帮农 ...

除了民主党，特朗普看着美国媒体和舆论对他强烈的指责，他又开始转移注意力了。10月1日特朗普在 社交平台发文，称他充分的理解美国豆农的处境，中国仅仅出于谈判的目的为了给施压，不购买美国大 豆，所以美国的农民正在受苦，他不允许这种事情发生将从关税谈判中拿出一部分钱补贴美国豆农。同 时他还要在四周后的韩国的会面中和中方谈判要求中方执行购买美国大豆的协议，缓解美国豆农的困 境。 看完特朗普的这到发言，真的是让人无语了，他将自己塑造成一个拯救豆农的大英雄，并将美国豆农遭 遇的困境归结到中国人的身上。也真的是让人无语了。 果然，美国政府关门后，造成的损失，让美国政客承受不了了，特朗普本人也承受不了了，都开始甩 了。10月1日，美国密歇根州民主党籍州长格雷琴·惠特默在加拿大多伦多市发表讲话，打中国牌，他指 责特朗普的关税一竿子打翻了一船人，尤其是向加拿大这样的传统盟友， 她认为特朗普不应该对加拿大的强硬和"侮辱"他们，这样做不仅"不明智、不必要"，且"不合理和无 益"。 并且告诫特朗普和传统盟友闹翻。这样做得利的只有中国。 首先，美国豆农的困境不是由中国造成的，而是特朗普不遵守中美双方贸易原则，并且在美国媒体一而 再再而三 ...

中国驻美使馆9月29日晚举行庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会，美国政府及各界友好人士等700多 人出席。 谢锋表示，中美要深化利益融合，做相互成就的同行者。打击非法移民、芬太尼、电信诈骗、金融犯 罪，开展癌症防治、传染性疾病和人工智能合作，这些完全可以成为双方合作亮点和增长点。 （文章来源：新华社） 中国驻美国大使谢锋9月29日晚在中国驻美使馆国庆招待会上表示，中美要拉长合作清单，做大合作蛋 糕，实现双赢多赢。 谢锋强调，台湾问题事关中美关系的政治基础，处理不好可能引发中美冲突对抗，美方务必慎之又慎， 恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报，停止散布"台湾地位未定"谬论，不得挑战包括联大第2758号决 议在内的国际社会共识，不能踩线越界。 谢锋说，中美拥有广泛共同利益、巨大合作空间。中美贸易额从1979年的不足25亿美元跃升至2024年的 近6883亿美元，展现出强大韧性和内生动力。 谢锋说，继对美国开放240小时过境免签后，"中国领事"App签证功能即将在美上线。他邀请美国朋友 来一场"说走就走"的中国行，也希望美方相向而行，为两国人民来往交流创造便利条件。 谢锋指出，两国经贸会谈取得积极进展表明，平等协商 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, the short - term supply is sufficient with various influencing factors such as soybean harvest and trade policies, and the prices are expected to decline in the short term [1][3][5]. - **Short - term continued adjustment**: Palm oil and soybean oil are affected by factors like the US biodiesel policy and soybean harvest, and their prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [1][6][7]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is supported by trade disputes and inventory cycles but limited by trade expansion, maintaining a high - level oscillating trend [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube face supply pressure and other issues, and their prices are cautiously expected to decline. Strategies suggest short - term short - allocation for cotton and seizing short - selling opportunities for jujube [1][8][11][14]. - **Cautiously bearish for live pigs**: Live pigs are under supply pressure in the short and medium term, and there is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soymeal - **Market data**: The futures price of soymeal's main contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 217.4407 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.12 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, a decrease of 70.30 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, and the soymeal inventory was 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons from the previous week [3]. - **Outlook**: The start of the US soybean harvest and the increase in domestic inventory put short - term pressure on soymeal. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continued downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, the US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal's main contract was 2444 yuan/ton, up 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 1.50% [4]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Outlook**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows that of soymeal. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of palm oil's main contract was 9222 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price was 9250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%. The national daily trading volume was 800 tons, an increase of 166.67% [6]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from the previous week. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports increased by 11.31% compared to the same period in August [7]. - **Outlook**: Frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may suppress palm oil's performance before the double festivals. A short - term weak oscillating market is expected. Attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil exports this month and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market data**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.92% to 13405 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.32% to 15059 yuan/ton. ICE cotton's main contract increased by 0.08% to 65.19 cents/pound [9]. - **Supply and demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is progressing, and the supply pressure is increasing. Domestically, new cotton has started preliminary harvesting, with weak farmers' price - holding sentiment and no obvious rush - to - buy situation. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend [9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: The supply side is under pressure, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to maintain a pressured oscillating market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1][8][11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Market data**: The jujube's main contract CJ2601 increased by 2.97% to 11285 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply and demand**: The main jujube - producing areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory is higher than the same period. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Outlook**: Considering the output and inventory, there is still pressure after the new jujubes are listed. Before November, there may be large price fluctuations due to speculation. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1][14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pigs decreased by 0.98% to 12575 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable at 12760 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Supply and demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the number of piglets born from January to August is increasing, indicating a potential increase in slaughter volume. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is declining [16]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is under double pressure from slaughter and feed. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure will drive the price down. There is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17].