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美豆周度报告-20250608
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 08:10
Report Title - The report is titled "US Soybean Weekly Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market will generally fluctuate in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [4] Summary by Directory Market Price - The price of US soybeans fluctuated higher due to the upcoming talks between the China - US trade teams in London [6] - US soybean meal traded sideways [8] - The price of US soybean oil rebounded from a low level [12] - The spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports decreased slightly last week [14] - The purchase price at farms (Iowa) decreased slightly last week [16] - The spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa increased slightly last week [18] - The spot price of Brazilian soybeans remained basically stable [20][22] Supply Factors - The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas is 45%, the same as last week [25] - The temperature in US soybean - producing areas is normal [27] - Precipitation is scarce in the north - western region, while the central, southern, and eastern regions have good rainfall [29] - Brazil has entered the dry season, with most areas having scarce precipitation, and more obvious precipitation in the central and southern regions [31] - Most soybean - producing areas in Argentina are dry with normal temperatures, which is conducive to the harvesting work [33] - The sowing progress of US soybeans is 84%, up from 76% last week, higher than expected, the same period last year, and the five - year average [36] - The sowing progress of US corn is 93%, up from 87% last week, slightly lower than the regional market expectation of 94% [38] Demand Factors - The crushing profit of US soybeans is $1.9 per bushel, up from $1.85 per bushel last week [41] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans is 308,500 tons, up from 209,300 tons last week [43] - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume is 268,300 tons, up from 194,900 tons last week [45] - The weekly net sales volume is 194,300 tons, up from 146,000 tons last week [47] - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year is 3,500 tons, down from 32,800 tons last week [49] - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [51] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 286, indicating a basically neutral state [54] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [56][58] - In terms of CFTC positions, the net long position of soybeans is 35,500 lots, down from 64,300 lots last week [62] - The net long position of soybean oil is 34,700 lots, down from 59,000 lots last week [64] - The net short position of soybean meal is 86,400 lots, up from 79,400 lots last week [66]
国投期货农产品日报-20250606
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:52
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): Not explicitly stated, but short - term influenced by local and international factors, mid - term weather - driven [2] - Soybean Meal: Not explicitly stated, influenced by trade relations and weather, with potential for price increase in 6 - 8 months [3] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Expected to maintain range - bound trading [4] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Short - term expected to fluctuate, mid - term expected to shift upwards [5] - Corn: Market to continue oscillating, weak demand may lead to a downward - biased oscillation [6] - Pig: Short - term spot price has room to fall, mid - term policy may stabilize prices [7] - Egg: Spot price has room to fall, near - month futures should be shorted on rallies [8] Core Viewpoints - The call between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive sentiment to the agricultural product market, but there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] - Weather is a major factor affecting the prices of overseas soybeans and North American oilseed crops in the medium term [2][4][5] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different agricultural products vary, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, weather, and production cycles [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The upcoming procurement auction has a top price of 4,200 yuan/ton. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for crops, and mid - term prices are weather - driven. Imported soybeans are optimistic due to the leaders' call, and US soybeans may be affected by weather from July to August [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The leaders' call boosted market sentiment, causing Dalian soybean meal to increase in position and price. US soybeans continued to rebound, and the drought - affected area decreased. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal inventory is rising. Attention should be paid to weather - driven price increases from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic oils are weaker than meals, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Mid - term, US soybeans are weather - driven, and palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to range - bound [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market shows stronger meal and weaker oil. The call between leaders boosted the price of external oilseeds, and the cost increase was passed on to downstream products. The futures price is mainly affected by trade relations in the short term and is expected to oscillate; it is expected to shift upwards in the medium term [5] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The spot price in Northeast China is stable, and there is a stable supply at Shandong processing enterprises. New wheat is replacing corn in some areas, and demand is weak. The market will continue to oscillate weakly [6] Pig - The July contract of live pigs hit a new low. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the future, and short - term spot prices may continue to fall. The policy aims to stabilize prices, and the future supply pressure may be reduced marginally [7] Egg - From the perspective of the production - price - profit cycle, the current egg price is still relatively high, and the spot price has room to fall. Near - month futures should be shorted on rallies, and the far - month has no signs of a reversal [8]
美国大豆、马来西亚棕榈油:供需现状与交易策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 04:50
Core Viewpoint - The drought situation in the U.S. Midwest is gradually easing, which is beneficial for the growth of new season crops, although there are concerns about warm and dry weather affecting recently planted soybeans [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - As of the week ending May 29, U.S. old crop soybean export sales were 194,300 tons, close to the lower end of market expectations [1] - New crop sales were only 3,500 tons, indicating a lack of significant overseas demand [1] - The market is optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations, which could lead to increased imports of U.S. agricultural products, alleviating soybean supply concerns [1] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Harvest - Argentina has completed 89% of its soybean harvest, an increase of 4% from the previous week [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its production forecast at 50 million tons, slightly above the USDA's estimate of 49 million tons [1] Group 3: Malaysian Palm Oil Production - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month-on-month from May 1 to 31, with peninsula production up by 4.05% and East Malaysia production up by 1.90% [1] - April export volume rose by 24.6%, while March production increased by 17.66% [1] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately, closing about 0.5% higher, reaching a one-week high due to optimism in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures experienced mixed results, closing about 0.3% lower due to weak export sales [1] - Domestic and international palm oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to increased production, while crude oil prices stabilize, creating a favorable atmosphere for oilseeds [1]
西南期货早间评论-20250605
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 05:19
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing market trends, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each product [5][7][10]. - It suggests different trading strategies for different products, such as being cautious about bonds, considering long - positions in stock index futures, and having specific trading ideas for various commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [6][9][11]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had respective increases of 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.07%, and 0.04%. The central bank conducted 2149 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In May 2025, the number of new A - share accounts increased by 22.86% year - on - year. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract had a closing price of 782.42 with a decline of 0.09%, and the silver main contract had a closing price of 8,463 with an increase of 0.08%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, steel futures rebounded significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing steel prices. However, the current valuation is low, and there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. It is recommended to buy at low levels, take profit on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and it is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. It is recommended to pay attention to call option opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron under certain conditions [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil trended upward. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but it may be suspended or reversed. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to go long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, high - and low - sulfur fuel oils showed different trends. The fuel oil price is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the main fuel oil contract [24][25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. The demand side is still worried, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC main contract rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea main contract closed flat. The cost has decreased, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy changes [35][36]. PX - Last trading day, PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand is tight, but the PXN spread may decline. It is recommended to trade with a range - bound mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA main contract fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It is recommended to trade in a range on dips and pay attention to risk control [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [39][40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is recommended to participate cautiously on dips and pay attention to risk control [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips main contract fell. The raw material price has adjusted, and the supply - demand has improved. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash main contract rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass main contract rose. The supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda main contract fell. The supply - demand is generally loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp main contract fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale production clearance [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper trended upward. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and it is recommended to go long on the main Shanghai copper contract [51][52][53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal closed flat, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and pay attention to call option opportunities for soybean oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to exit the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures trended weakly. The market is waiting and watching due to uncertain Sino - US relations. It is recommended to trade with a light position [65][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded after hitting a low. The domestic inventory is low, and it is recommended to go long in batches [69][70][71]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded after hitting a low. The new - year production is uncertain, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main live pig contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the second - fattening participation after the festival and consider the positive spread opportunity for the peak - season contract [73][74]. Eggs - Last trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [75][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [79][80][81]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract fell. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market support for the futures price is weak [82][84].
独家洞察 | 中美贸易战暂时停火,美线“抢出口”引发运价飙升
慧甚FactSet· 2025-06-04 07:37
Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. to pause additional tariffs for 90 days has led to a surge in shipping demand as traders rush to export goods to the U.S. to avoid potential future tariff increases [1][4]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Rates - As of May 30, shipping rates from China to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast reached $5,172/FEU and $6,243/FEU, marking increases of 57.9% and 45.7% respectively compared to the previous week [3]. - The Ningbo Shipping Exchange reported an even higher increase, with rates from China to the U.S. West Coast rising by 89.23% and to the East Coast by 69.7% [3]. - The surge in shipping rates is primarily driven by "export rush" due to high transportation demand, with overall shipping capacity returning to pre-trade war levels, although space availability remains tight [3][4]. Group 2: Import Order Growth - A report from Vizion indicated a significant week-on-week increase in import orders from China to the U.S. between May 12 and 18, with furniture orders skyrocketing from 6,695 TEU to 30,728 TEU, a 358% increase [3]. - Orders for toys and sports goods also saw a substantial rise, increasing from 3,845 TEU to 14,574 TEU, nearly a 280% increase [3]. - Other categories such as seafood and steel products experienced growth rates of 406% and 347% respectively [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the current surge in freight demand resembles the initial phase of the pandemic, leading to supply chain bottlenecks as factories and container ships struggle to keep up [4]. - The shipping rates for the week of June 16 to 22 saw further increases, with rates for the U.S. West Coast reaching $8,346/FEU and for the East Coast reaching $9,273/FEU [4]. - Despite the temporary pause in tariff increases, the uncertainty surrounding future U.S. trade policies continues to loom, prompting exporters to capitalize on the current "window period" to maximize shipments [4][5].
安粮期货豆粕日报-20250604
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 06:11
1、现货市场:钦州中粮进口三级菜油 9300 元/吨,较上一交易日跌 70 元/吨。 2、市场分析:供应方面,端午节后,国产菜籽即将陆续上市。后市,近月进口菜籽到港供 应较为充裕,远月进口菜籽到港暂较为偏紧。菜油下游需求中性。库存端,菜油库存中短 期或维持高位。 3、参考观点:菜油 2509 合约,短线于或平台区间内震荡整理。 现货信息:43 豆粕各地区节前现货报价:张家港 2800 元/吨(-70)、天津 2870 元/吨(-70)、 日照 2810 元/吨(-60)、东莞 2800 元/吨(-60)。 市场分析:(1)宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议,但长期矛盾仍存。 (2)国际大豆:关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。美豆播种顺利,巴西大豆出口高峰 期。 (3)国内豆粕供需面:大豆供给逐渐恢复,油厂开机率和压榨恢复正常,豆粕供给压力逐 渐凸显。豆粕成交缩量,下游采购意愿偏弱,随着下游企业安全库存建立,下游贸易商维 持随用随采、滚动补库为主。油厂大豆库存回升至高位,豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点:豆粕短线或震荡偏弱。 现货信息:东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2204 元/吨;华北黄淮 ...
5月PMI点评:短期进出口情况有所改善
Orient Securities· 2025-06-04 03:19
Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, slightly up from 49% in April[5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, down from 50.4%[5] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4% from 50.2%[5] Group 2: Sector Performance - In May, the production and new orders PMI were 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively, indicating improvements[5] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed PMIs of 50.9% and 51.2%, both in the expansion zone[5] - The raw materials sector PMI was at 47%, indicating insufficient production and demand[5] Group 3: Export and Import Trends - New export orders PMI rose to 47.5% from 44.7%, signaling a key demand recovery[5] - Import PMI also increased to 47.1% from 43.4%, reflecting a significant rebound[5] - Despite improvements, external trade orders are expected to have limited long-term impact due to high tariffs[5] Group 4: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, while medium and small enterprises recorded 47.5% and 49.3%, respectively[5] - Large enterprises were crucial for the PMI rebound, with their production and demand indices returning above the neutral line[5] Group 5: Price Stability and Service Sector - The factory price and major raw material purchase price PMIs were 44.7% and 46.9%, indicating price stability[5] - The service sector showed slight recovery with business activity and new orders indices at 50.2% and 46.6%[5]
中美会谈20天后 ,美国抱怨谈判陷入停滞,又开始等中国电话
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 17:26
Group 1 - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has taken unexpected turns, with China responding firmly to U.S. tariffs, leading to a situation where tariffs escalated to the point of disrupting trade [1] - A series of agreements were reached during the Geneva talks, including mutual tariff reductions and the establishment of a U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism for further communication on trade issues [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant expressed concerns about the stagnation of U.S.-China trade negotiations, suggesting that further involvement from the leaders of both countries may be necessary [3][6] Group 2 - The urgency for the U.S. to advance negotiations with China is significant, as the joint statement from the Geneva talks is not a formal trade agreement, necessitating quick results [6] - The stagnation in U.S.-China trade talks may stem from a perceived lack of sincerity from the U.S., as the initial request for negotiations was driven by the adverse effects of Trump's tariff policies [6][9] - China has articulated its demands through the U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism, addressing issues such as the U.S. misuse of export controls on Chinese semiconductor products [8]
安粮期货大豆、淀粉早报-20250529
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:16
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be a sideways consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be sideways with a bullish bias [2] - The short - term downward momentum of corn futures prices weakens, maintaining a weak sideways movement [3] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, and the overall defense line is set at the upper edge of the moving average system [4] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement, and short positions can be opened on rallies [5][6] - For steel, it is advisable to wait and see currently and wait for stabilization due to declining demand [7] - Coke and coking coal are in a low - level weak sideways movement due to ample supply [8] - The iron ore 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - The WTI main contract will mainly move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber is in a weak state with overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices will move weakly at a low level with a sideways trend due to a weak fundamental situation [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot price: Zhangjiagang Yijiang first - grade soybean oil is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market analysis: South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil in China may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] Soybean Meal - Spot price: 43% soybean meal prices vary by region, e.g., Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton [2] - Market analysis: Sino - US trade has a phased agreement but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose. Demand was underestimated, and inventory accumulation is slow [2] Corn - Spot price: Different regions have different prices, e.g., the average purchase price in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,193 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: The market has a loose expectation of long - term corn imports. The 5 - month USDA report is negative for US corn prices. In China, supply pressure eases, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] Copper - Spot price: Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,430 - 786,590 yuan, down 5 yuan [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff tensions are easing, and domestic policies are supportive. However, raw material issues persist, and the copper market is complex due to various factors [4] Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 62,000 yuan/ton (+250 yuan/ton) [5] - Market analysis: Ore prices have dropped, but lithium salt prices are falling faster. Supply is high, and demand is improving but insufficient. Inventory is decreasing overall. The 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement [5][6] Steel - Spot price: Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, and the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56% [7] - Market analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Cost and inventory show a complex situation, and the market is influenced by macro - policies and shows a supply - demand dual - strong pattern [7] Coke and Coking Coal - Spot price: Main coking coal (e.g., Mongolian 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is gradually accumulating, and profit is approaching the break - even point. They are in a low - level weak sideways movement [8] Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts iron ore index is 96.45 [9] - Market analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Global shipments are slightly down, port inventory has decreased, and domestic demand is complex. The 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement [9] Crude Oil - Market analysis: Supply increase expectations have faded, but demand growth is slowing. OPEC+ will increase production in June. The WTI main contract will move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] Rubber - Market analysis: Global supply is ample, and demand may be inhibited by US tariffs. It is in a weak state with supply exceeding demand [11][12] PVC - Spot price: East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [13] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. Futures prices are moving weakly at a low level [13] Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,406.25 yuan/ton, unchanged [14] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased due to planned maintenance, inventory has decreased slightly, demand is average, and the market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250528
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:09
1. Report Overview - Report Title: "Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Date: May 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices changed little, and the index decline may be due to the cooling of the rush - shipping expectation on the US route. Shipping companies have a willingness to support prices in June. The Maersk's online large - container quote on the European route exceeded market expectations, while most other shipping companies' quotes remained stable. The US line trade data declined, but the export peak - season rush shipping may not be falsified due to the time - lag effect of the Sino - US trade friction easing on May 12. The June contract should follow the delivery logic, and if the price increase is verified, it may have a small upward space. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly affected by the expectation of the US route rush shipping, and their price centers may rise if the June price is strong [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Spot prices were stable, and the index decline was related to the US route. Shipping companies' price - support intention in June was obvious. The 6 - month contract was based on delivery logic, and the far - month contracts were influenced by the US route rush - shipping expectation [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From May 19th to 23rd, the China export container shipping market improved, with most long - haul routes' freight rates rising. In April, the industrial added - value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. On May 23rd, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 7.2%. In the European route, the eurozone's economic recovery faced challenges, but the freight rate increased by 14.1%. The Mediterranean route's freight rate rose by 11.8%. The North American route was supported by Sino - US cooperation, and the freight rates to the US West and East increased by 6.0% and 5.3% respectively. The SCFI index rose for three consecutive weeks. Shipping companies planned to increase freight rates on the US and European routes in June. The EU's new policy on personal direct - mail parcels may impact the European small - package market [9][10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.3.1集运现货价格 (Container Shipping Spot Prices) - From May 19th to May 26th, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) decreased by 1.4%, while that for the US West route (basic ports) increased by 18.9% [12]. 3.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 (Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes) - Provided the trading data of EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 contracts on May 27th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6]. 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 (Shipping - related Data Charts) - Included charts of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures contracts, global container capacity, container ship orders, and shipping freight rates [13][16][17][21]