Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

有外媒称，为确保管制措施落到实处，中方在稀土出口方面"引入了追踪系统"，即要求生产商提供终端 客户等额外信息。另外，中国商务部12日指出，"中国作为负责任大国，充分考虑各国在民营领域的合 理需求与关切，依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查"。换句话说，中方虽说已同意恢复对 美稀土供应，但需要对买方的申请进行审批并发放许可，以防止美方在囤积足够数量稀土后翻脸不认 人。 据《南方都市报》报道，有外媒称，美国总统日前发文称，中美已达成协议，美国将对华征收55%的关 税，中国将对美征收10%的关税，并且中国将和之前一样向美国出口磁体和稀土材料。对此，商务部发 言人作出回应称，"中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展"。 与上次在日内瓦会谈结束后发表联合公报不同，这次中美贸易代表团在伦敦的谈判，没有发表联合公 报，这就意味着双方在这次谈判中，只是谈了一个框架，并没有达成协议，所有问题留待后续谈判再解 决。而美国总统在这时候发出上述消息，无非是向美国选民吹嘘他的"胜利"。毕竟，从他表达的内容来 看，中国的确是"吃亏了"，但事实真的是这样吗？ 事实证明，美国总统就是在吹牛，因为白宫随后做出解释称， ...

文/珠玑说 (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源，具体资料赘述文章结尾) 美方急于宣告胜利，只为一场政治作秀 美国总统的谈判，总让人想起那些街头巷尾的商业喊价，他总想把对方"逼到墙角"，用尽一切高压手段，迫使对方立即妥协。 在他眼中，关税就是最锋利的刀，一刀下去，就等着对方喊痛、求饶，赶紧坐下来"求和"，所以，当他迫不及待地宣告"达成协议"，甚至得意洋洋地 提到拿到了中方稀土的出口许可，这更像是对国内选民的一场汇报演出。 伦敦会谈落幕，美国总统高调宣布"胜利协议"，甚至表示已经拿到稀土出口许可，然而华盛顿高官随即却表示"关税绝不降低"，谈判结果为何如此矛 盾？中方对于美国，又会发出怎样的要求？ 至于紧随其后的"关税绝不降一分"的冷硬表态，其实是他那套"胜利学"的延续，一方面，这是对国内强硬派的交代，表明美国在谈判中没有丝毫软 化，另一方面，也是为了在未来的博弈中，继续掌握主动权，始终对中国保持压力。 那个所谓的"55%关税"说辞，更像是一场包装巧妙的语言游戏，它不过是将过去已经生效的关税措施重新拿出来，换个数字，让它听起来更具威慑 力，说白了，这一切都是为了巩固他"战无不胜"的形象，证明自己从未"后退半步"。 这种 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is "oscillation with a weakening bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottoming. The rumored crude steel production limit is set at around 30 million tons, which will change the long - short balance in the black sector [4] - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory overstock and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key is to monitor the signals of mine - end active production cuts or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost side is expected to support rather than drag down the price, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits will drive the price up [5] - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of a short - seller counter - attack. Once the price drops again, it may lead to a double - kill situation for both long and short positions [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (- 15), and the active contract is reported at 766.5 yuan/ton (- 17). The basis is 131.5 yuan/ton (+ 17), and the September - January spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 have declined slightly. The开工率 of 523 mines is reported at 86.3% (- 2.96), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is reported at 60.59% (- 0.96) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.4753 million tons (+ 370,800), and that of coal - washing plants is 2.1474 million tons (+ 114,800). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9875 million tons (+ 75,400), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 7.3796 million tons (- 146,000). The port inventory is 3.0156 million tons (- 45,300) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (- 0), and the active contract is reported at 1,328.5 yuan/ton (- 27.5). The basis is 37 yuan/ton (+ 27.5), and the September - January spread is - 19.5 yuan/ton (- 2) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 74.93% (- 0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.436 million tons (- 11,700) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 88,410 tons (+ 10,080), that of 247 steel mills is 645,800 tons (- 9,130), and the port inventory is 214,150 tons (- 3,030) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long order for the J09 contract and wait to increase the position after confirming the market bottom [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The overall impact of Sino - US trade frictions on the black sector has weakened. As the off - season approaches, the demand for building materials remains weak, but the inventory has no pressure due to the decline in production. The industrial materials demand shows signs of weakening from June to July, allowing for a decline in hot metal production, and the negative feedback path is difficult to disprove. Currently, the weakening demand and the accumulation of iron ore at ports suppress the upside, and prices are oscillating near support levels waiting for new drivers [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with expected seasonal increases in shipments until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety has increased, leading to a slight decline in coking coal production. However, the overall market supply is still abundant. On the demand side, the coke production level is loosening at a high level, and coke production tends to decline due to increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits. In terms of inventory, coke enterprises are not enthusiastic about replenishing raw materials during the price cut period, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. Overall, the supply contraction is limited, the downstream rigid demand is expected to decline in the off - season, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, coking coal prices may continue to be weak [3] Alloy - In the alloy sector, the cost of production has been slightly repaired during the wet season in Yunnan and due to electricity price discounts in Guangxi, leading to a slight increase in supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. On the demand side, as the off - season for the black market arrives, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon - manganese in June was 11,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to May. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon - manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, and as the downstream steel consumption enters the off - season, the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The market sentiment remains cautious, and costs may still be a drag. The future focus is on steel procurement and production [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has significantly increased, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. There are rumors affecting the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to decline, and the sentiment fluctuates. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led to a decline in the futures market. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained. For soda ash, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and after the maintenance period ends, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5] Specific Products - **Steel**: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the macro - fluctuations have converged. This week, the demand for the five major steel products has weakened, especially for rebar. The hot metal production has peaked, and steel production has significantly declined. Although both supply and demand have weakened this week, the inventory is still decreasing. The main factors suppressing the futures price are the decline in raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [6] - **Iron Ore**: The port trading volume has increased, and the spot market prices have declined slightly. Overseas mines are increasing shipments seasonally, and it is expected to remain high until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2][6] - **Scrap Steel**: As the off - season for building materials deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price of finished products is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the resources are relatively tight, supporting the price. The demand has also decreased as the profit of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is negative, and the hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly declined. The inventory in steel mills is still decreasing, but the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [6] - **Coke**: After three rounds of price cuts, there is an expectation of further price cuts due to the off - season demand for steel and pessimistic market sentiment. On the supply side, the production of some coke enterprises has slightly declined, but the overall production remains stable, and the de - stocking pressure is still high. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining, and there is an expectation of further decline. The supply reduction is limited, and the demand support is weakening, so the coke price still has room to decline [6][7] - **Coking Coal**: The market trading atmosphere is poor, and there are still online auction failures. Recently, the number of shut - down coal mines has increased, leading to a slight decline in production, but the overall supply is still abundant. The coke production is loosening at a high level, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises is increasing, leading to a decline in demand for coking coal. The upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years. In the short term, the coking coal price may continue to be weak due to the high - inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3][8] - **Glass**: The demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has increased slightly, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures market is oscillating. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the price - cut range of Hubei manufacturers [5][8] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the maintenance period ends, the supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The sentiment affects the futures market, but the long - term oversupply situation cannot be changed. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5][9] - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost of production has been slightly repaired in Yunnan and Guangxi. The supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The black market is in the off - season, and the downstream is cautious and has a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese in June has increased. The supply - demand of silicon manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [3][11] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost of production in various regions has little fluctuation, and the overall supply level is still low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The steel procurement has increased, but the downstream construction progress is average due to the college entrance examination and rainy season. The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The procurement sentiment in the magnesium market has recovered, and the price has stabilized and increased. The supply of silicon iron has slightly increased, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and the cost may still be a drag. It is expected that the futures market will oscillate in the short term [12]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 多空因素交织，焦煤低位调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 多空博弈，焦炭低位整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位 ...

晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

北京市内特产店挂着中美国旗（4月，Kyodo） 由在中国开展业务的美国企业组成的中国美国商会日前公布了调查结果。调查向商会的会员 企业询问"如今后6～12个月内对华关税再次提高（至145%等），将如何改变业务模式"。回 答"将生产转移至（中美以外的）其他国家"的占13%…… 由在中国拓展业务的美国企业组成的中国美国商会日前公布了围绕两国贸易摩擦在5月下旬实 施的问卷调查结果。结果显示，即使目前已降至30%的美国对华加征关税再次大幅上调，考 虑将生产从中国转移到美国的企业仍为零。 另一方面，回答"将生产转移回美国"的回答为零。特朗普希望通过关税等一系列措施重振美 国制造业。不过，在中国拓展业务的美国企业目前对生产回归本国持极其慎重态度这一现实 凸显。 在中国设有基地的美国企业并非没有受到对华关税的影响。当询问5月中旬达成协议前的阶段 业务战略所受的影响时，回答"没有影响"的企业仅占21%。44%的企业称"受到某种程度的 影响"，25%表示"受到很大影响"，11%表示"受到极为巨大的影响"。 在江苏苏州生产汽车等的压铸件的企业的经营者表示，"存在客户指定零部件等成本以外的各 种制约因素。生产无法轻易地转移"。无论 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 低位震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 多空僵持，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位震荡 核心逻辑：6 月 10 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约偏强震荡运行，夜盘报收于 78 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration's intervention in the export of ethane to China has led to significant challenges for U.S. ethane producers and exporters, as many applications for export licenses have been denied [1][11] - The U.S. is a major global exporter of ethane, with China being the largest buyer, accounting for 46% of U.S. ethane exports, which amounts to approximately 227,000 barrels per day [9][11] - The restrictions imposed by the Trump administration are seen as a strategic move in the ongoing trade tensions, aiming to leverage China's dependency on ethane to gain negotiating power [7][19] Group 2 - The U.S. ethane industry is facing severe repercussions due to the export restrictions, with major exporters experiencing stock price declines and operational challenges related to storage costs for unsold ethane [13][19] - In response to U.S. actions, China has diversified its import channels, engaging with Middle Eastern countries to secure alternative ethane supplies and investing in domestic ethane extraction technologies [15][17] - Chinese petrochemical companies are adapting their production processes to reduce reliance on ethane, with significant investments made to modify cracking facilities to utilize alternative raw materials [17][19]