10月以来，以中美贸易摩擦升级（美方拟加征关税）为契机，市场迎来新一轮风格切换行情——科技成 长大幅回调，红利风格明显跑赢。 月初至17日，红利指数、中特估指数分别上涨4.81%和1.89%，在主要宽基指数中涨幅靠前；创业板、 科创100则分别下跌9.35%和10.13%。 结合黄金价格大涨与股市成交量萎缩等表现来看，本轮资本市场风格切换，在很大程度上可归因于避险 情绪的显著升温。以黄金为例，自10月以来其累计涨幅已超过12%，月内相继突破3900美元-4300美元 等多个整数关口，表现极为强势；与此同时，A股市场日均成交额降至2.37万亿元，较9月日均水平萎缩 488亿元，反映出市场交投活跃度的回落。 避险情绪升温的背后，既有外部环境变化的影响，也有内部基本面因素的推动。从外部来看，贸易摩擦 升级等不确定性严重打击市场风险偏好，VIX恐慌指数月内大幅上涨超过55%，预示着全球资金避险需 求急剧上升。从国内来看，7至9月制造业PMI持续位于50%的荣枯线以下，PPI与CPI同比仍处于负值区 间，社会消费品零售总额与规模以上工业企业增加值增速亦呈现放缓趋势。这些数据均指向企业盈利端 面临压力，市场对即将披露的三 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The market is currently affected by factors such as Sino - US trade disputes, policy expectations, and seasonal demand. Short - term uncertainties exist, but in the long - term, policies are expected to support the capital market. For the black sector, there is potential for a rebound, and for most commodities, specific supply - demand and cost factors need to be considered [4][8][44]. - **Investment Strategies**: Different commodities have different investment strategies. For example, for some commodities, it is recommended to wait and see, while for others, it is suggested to look for opportunities to go long on dips or short on rallies. 3. Summary by Category **Macro - Financial** - **Stock Index**: After the continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the market risk preference has decreased. Sino - US tariff concerns have disturbed the market in the short - term, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk preference, which is beneficial for the bond market to recover. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the fourth quarter. The bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The Fed's monetary policy is in the initial stage of the easing cycle. The risk events in the banking industry provide a reason for the Fed to end the balance - sheet reduction. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and look for opportunities to go long on dips [9][11]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream consumption has improved after the price decline. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Sino - US trade tensions may ease marginally. The inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased after the price decline, and the price is supported by the increase in copper prices. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [15][16]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ore inventory has decreased, and the zinc ingot inventory has increased. The overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level. It is expected that the zinc price will be weak in the short - term [17]. - **Lead**: The lead ore port inventory has increased, and the downstream demand has improved. The lead ingot inventory has decreased. It is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short - term [18][19]. - **Nickel**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the impact on nickel is relatively small. The nickel iron price has weakened, and the refined nickel inventory pressure is significant. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and domestic policies will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [20][21]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the tin supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the demand has improved in the peak season. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season, and the supply is less than the demand. The inventory has decreased, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery [23][24]. - **Alumina**: The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price limit increase of 304 cold - rolled steel by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but the downstream demand is still weak. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [28][29]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation may improve the cost - side support, but the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is large, and the upward price space is limited [29][31]. **Black Building Materials** - **Steel**: The overall commodity market atmosphere was poor last Friday, and the steel price fluctuated downward. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. The steel demand is still weak in the short - term, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [33][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased seasonally, and the iron water production has decreased due to the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory has increased, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass factory inventory is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The soda ash market is in a situation of over - supply, and both are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [38][41]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Sino - US trade disputes and coal mine safety accidents have affected the market. The black sector is expected to have a potential rebound. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [42][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon price is affected by the overall market environment and supply - demand factors, and it is expected to be in a short - term consolidation. The polysilicon policy expectation has an impact on the price, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the future [46][50]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Rubber**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long in the short - term, and partially build a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52][56]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [57][58]. - **Methanol**: The import arrival has decreased in the short - term, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is still weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and look for 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [59][61]. - **Urea**: The short - term operating rate has decreased, and the cost support is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - matching opportunities [62]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the styrene price may stop falling in the short - term [63][64]. - **PVC**: The enterprise profit has declined, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [65][66]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply load is high, and the port inventory has increased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [67][68]. - **PTA**: The supply is in a slight accumulation state, and the demand is stable. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The cost - side support has weakened, and the inventory is at a high level. The polyethylene price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [74][75]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The cost - side supply is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [76][77]. **Agricultural Products** - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is greater than the demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to sell on rallies [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is high, and the demand is weak. The spot price has a limited rebound space. The egg price is expected to be in a weak bottom - building state. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The vegetable oil inventory in India and Southeast Asia is low, and the demand for soybean oil is boosted. The oils and fats market is in a state of balanced supply - demand in the short - term and is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [86][87]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase production in the new season. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [88][90]. - **Cotton**: The Sino - US trade conflict is not conducive to the cotton price. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - year production is expected to be high. The cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [91][92].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：黄金市场在 10 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead ore and scrap batteries remains tight, providing good bottom support at the cost end. However, from mid - to late October, some electrolytic lead and secondary lead smelters will resume production, and there is an expectation of imported crude lead arriving, so the supply will increase marginally. On the demand side, the peak season for battery replacement in electric bicycles is coming to an end, and battery exports are still affected by tariffs and anti - dumping policies, so consumption is relatively flat. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Points - Macroscopically, there is still uncertainty in Sino - US trade friction, the market pays attention to its subsequent development, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October remains high, the US dollar continues to be weak, which supports metal prices. Fundamentally, the supply of lead ore and scrap batteries is tight, providing cost support. The supply will increase marginally as some smelters resume production and there is an expectation of imported crude lead. The demand is flat as the peak season for electric bicycle battery replacement is ending and battery exports are restricted. It is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5]. 3.2 Trading Data - From October 10th to 17th, SHFE lead dropped from 17,140 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; LME lead dropped from 2,014.5 dollars/ton to 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.51 to 8.66. The inventory of SHFE increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 13,400 tons to 250,400 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 215 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 adjusted slightly at a high level, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.38%. LME lead continued to fall from a high level, closing at 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.13%. In the spot market, there is obvious regional supply tightness. Some holders are reluctant to sell at low prices or raise prices. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some are waiting and watching. In terms of inventory, LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly, and it is expected that the social inventory will not increase significantly [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - From October 11th - 17th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 110 dollars/dry ton, both remaining flat compared to the previous period. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short lead in the next year was 6.8%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global lead ore supply will increase by 0.7% to 457,000 tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 467,000 tons in 2026; the global refined lead demand will increase by 1.8% to 1.325 million tons in 2025 and by 0.9% to 1.337 million tons in 2026. The global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 tons in 2025 and 102,000 tons in 2026 [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures moved down and then fluctuated horizontally. Overseas macro events such as Sino - US trade friction, interest - rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and US bank credit crisis are uncertain, and domestic macro data is mixed. After the holiday, inventory accumulation is high, consumption improvement is limited, and supply is gradually recovering, leading to a weakening of supply - demand balance. The focus is on zinc ingot exports. If there is a certain volume of exports, it will improve the domestic oversupply expectation. In the short term, the macro direction is unclear, and fundamental support is insufficient, so zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From October 10th to October 17th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,270 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price dropped from 2984.5 dollars/ton to 2942.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.46 to 7.41; the SHFE inventory increased by 2677 tons to 109,627 tons; the LME inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; the social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons; the spot premium increased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main ZN2512 contract of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated downward and then consolidated horizontally. The LME0 - 3BACK structure expanded, and part of the inventory became visible. After the LME inventory increased slightly, the zinc price stabilized. The final weekly decline was 2.11%, closing at 21,830 yuan/ton. London zinc hit the bottom and rebounded, with a weekly decline of 1.41%, closing at 2942.5 dollars/ton. In the spot market, the supply of goods in circulation was limited, and the spot maintained a small premium. Downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and actual transactions were mainly among traders [6][7]. 3. Industry News - From October 10th to 17th, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton, and the average imported ore processing fee increased by 0.25 dollars/dry ton to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short zinc in the next year reached 29.7%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc production will increase by 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025 and by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026, while the demand will increase by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will expand from 85,000 tons in 2025 to 271,000 tons in 2026 [13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and London zinc, the internal - external price ratio, inventory, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates, reflecting the historical data and trends of these indicators [16][20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows a stable and slightly upward trend, but there are still uncertainties. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. - Different industries have different market trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the black industry, steel may experience shock adjustments, while coal and coke may continue to be shock - strong in the short term; in the agricultural product industry, cotton and sugar face supply - side pressure, while eggs have a high - inventory and weak - demand situation. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to expand green trade and studied agricultural production work, and proposed to promote cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement in logistics [8]. - The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is scheduled for October 27, with central bank and regulatory leaders attending and relevant policies to be released [8]. - In the first three quarters, national fiscal revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance will arrange 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit for local use and will advance the release of the new local government debt limit for 2026 [9]. - NVIDIA has completely left the Chinese market due to US export controls [9]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit and margin ratio of gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [9]. - US President Trump admitted that the strategy of threatening China with high tariffs is unsustainable and may impact the US economy [9]. - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks and parts from November 1 [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market declined on Friday, with popular sectors such as new energy and AI performing weakly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95% to 3839.76 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 300, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index also declined [12]. - Inflation data was basically in line with expectations. Food prices dragged down CPI, with pork prices dropping 17.0%. Core CPI rose to 1.0%. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and domestic oil - related industries' prices declined due to falling international oil prices [12]. - Financial data showed that social financing continued to decline, M2 decreased significantly, while M1 increased substantially, and credit was weak. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be loosened in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12][13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market was moderately loose, and the bond market was optimistic due to concerns about the US credit market. Inflation and financial data were similar to those of stock index futures. It is recommended to adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [14][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - The improvement in steel apparent demand led to a small rebound in black commodities, but market transactions were weak, and prices remained weak. Considering macro factors, trade frictions may cool down, and the impact of policies before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is limited. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [15]. - In terms of supply - demand, real - estate sales and new construction were weak, infrastructure projects had capital pressure, and overall building material demand was weak. However, the demand for rolled plates was acceptable, but high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affected steel valuations. Steel may experience shock adjustments, and iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips [15][16]. Coal and Coke - Short - term coal and coke supply gradually recovered, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions still existed, and futures prices continued to fluctuate at high levels. Under policy constraints, coal supply contraction expectations were strengthened, but weak steel mill profits and less - than - ideal peak - season demand restricted the upward space. Double - coke prices may continue to be shock - strong in the short term [17]. Ferroalloys - On the 17th, ferrosilicon fluctuated widely at high levels, and ferromanganese silicon's center moved further down. From the perspective of supply - demand and cost support, ferrosilicon was stronger than ferromanganese silicon. The reasonable valuation range of the 01 spread between the two was between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no clear unilateral strategy [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, market risk aversion increased. Aluminum demand was resilient, and inventory was good. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina had some production cuts due to losses, but the total output and inventory were still high. It is expected to continue to bottom out, and it is recommended to sell on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [21]. Shanghai Zinc - On the night of the 17th, Shanghai zinc prices weakened. The main reasons were repeated domestic inventories and lack of market guidance, and spot transactions were poor. Overseas prices were strong due to the continuous decline of LME inventories. It is recommended to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply showed an increasing trend, and short - term destocking supported prices. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range due to the expected increase in production by leading manufacturers and the expected reduction in production by polysilicon manufacturers during the dry season. Polysilicon's spot price was firm, and it is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range, with the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - ICE cotton prices rebounded slightly due to signs of easing trade tensions, but demand concerns still existed due to the US government shutdown. Domestic cotton prices rebounded due to rising raw cotton prices, but supply pressure limited the rebound space. It is recommended to sell on rallies [26][27]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar prices fell under pressure, and domestic sugar prices were under pressure due to global sugar supply surplus and increased domestic imports. However, the cost provided some support. It is recommended to use a short - selling rolling strategy [27][28]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable and weak, and futures prices continued to decline slightly. The high inventory of laying hens and slow capacity reduction made it difficult to change the supply - demand pattern in the short term. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [29][30]. Apples - The prices of late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions were stable, and the futures market oscillated strongly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [30][31]. Corn - The decline in domestic corn spot prices slowed down, and futures prices rose and then fell. New - season corn supply increased, putting pressure on prices. However, purchases by some state - owned grain depots may support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract [31][32]. Red Dates - The market price of red dates was stable, and the futures market showed a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. Pigs - Pig prices fluctuated at the bottom. Supply pressure continued, but factors stabilizing prices increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [34]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Although the Russia - Ukraine situation may ease, geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and international oil prices rose. However, due to increasing supply and weakening demand, oil prices are expected to decline steadily. It is recommended to hold existing short positions [34][35]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue to fluctuate with oil prices [36][37]. Plastics - Polyolefins had high supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to reduce short positions at the current low - valuation level and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [38]. Rubber - The international economic outlook was uncertain, and the commodity sector was weak. NR was relatively stronger than RU due to warehouse - receipt issues. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and consider selling call options on RU after a rebound [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuated greatly due to the game around the arrival of Iranian goods. Although the current situation is weak, there are positive factors such as winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for a rebound to enter long positions [40][42]. Caustic Soda - In the spot market, the prices of different concentrations of caustic soda in Shandong changed differently, and the futures market declined due to rumors of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a shock - strong strategy [40][41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The market was cautious due to uncertainties before the Sino - US summit. Asphalt's fundamentals were stable, and it is expected to follow oil prices [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester product prices declined due to rising Sino - US trade tensions and falling oil prices. Although trade tensions may ease, the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is expected to rebound in the short term but remain pessimistic in the long term [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was expected to weaken. It is recommended to maintain a short - term weak strategy relative to crude oil and a long - term short strategy [45]. Paper - related Industries Offset Printing Paper - In the off - season, factory ex - factory prices were lowered, and market transactions were based on rigid demand. With the resumption of production by Chenming, supply may be excessive, but the low - valuation futures market may support prices. It is recommended to try long positions near the production cost or sell put options [46]. Pulp - Pulp spot prices were stable. European inventory increased, and consumption also changed. The futures market was under pressure but had some support. It is recommended to observe port destocking and spot transactions and consider buying long - term 01 contracts on dips [47]. Logs - Log spot prices were stable, but demand from sawmills was weak. Supply pressure increased due to expected concentrated arrivals. It is recommended to observe the market and be cautious when trading [48]. Other Industries Urea - Urea spot prices were stable, and the market was weak. Futures prices were relatively strong due to expectations of increased export quotas. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The inventory of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber increased, and prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [50].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is engaged in the production of optical fiber connectors, ceramic inserts, and AOC products at its Vietnam factory, with current production capacity not fully utilized [3] - The company has established long-term trust-based partnerships with overseas major clients, focusing on enhancing product competitiveness to maintain stable supply relationships [2] Group 2: Impact of Trade Relations - The impact of US-China trade tensions on the company is minimal, as the settlement model with major clients is based on FOB, allowing for effective risk management through communication and collaboration [2] Group 3: Product Development and Capacity Expansion - The company has significantly expanded its MT connector production capacity since last year, positioning itself as a rare integrated manufacturer capable of producing various connectors [3] - The company is actively pursuing breakthroughs in flexible circuit boards and other new products, emphasizing continuous development and collaboration with clients to adapt to market demands [3] Group 4: Licensing and Market Opportunities - The company has obtained a non-exclusive license for MDC connectors, enabling it to manufacture and sell high-density optical fiber connectors and adapters globally, supported by US Conec [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market declined overall, with defensive sectors outperforming. The growth sectors led the decline, mainly due to Sino-US trade frictions and the emerging credit risks of US regional banks, which suppressed risk appetite. Although economic data in September exceeded expectations, the market continued to price marginal changes. Since October, external black swan events have made the market sentiment extremely sensitive, amplifying market fluctuations [1]. - The current core drivers are the development of external geopolitical situations and the extent of domestic policy support. The Fourth Plenary Session started at the beginning of this week, and the core content of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be announced on the closing day of the meeting on October 23. If the content exceeds expectations, it may trigger speculative trading in related themes. Regarding external geopolitics, there are signs of easing in Sino-US relations. If the news of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is confirmed as the APEC meeting in South Korea approaches in late October, risk appetite may recover. After last week's adjustment, the market is expected to stabilize this week, but the upward space depends on whether positive Sino-US news can materialize [2]. - Key factors to watch include China's September production and consumption data, Q3 GDP data, the progress of Sino-US relations, and the performance of the US stock market [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - **Trend Strategy**: Buy on dips. The core trading ranges for the IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 contracts are expected to be between 4361 - 4586 points, 2890 - 3023 points, 6715 - 7165 points, and 6852 - 7313 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Re - enter the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.4%, and most major domestic indices declined. Among them, the ChiNext Index and the Small and Medium - sized Board Index led the decline, falling by 5.71% and 5.77% respectively. In terms of sectors, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors had the highest gains, while the electronics, media, and automotive sectors led the decline [1][8][12][14]. - Since 2025, most domestic indices have risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the way with a 37.1% increase [10]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IC contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude [17][20]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures have rebounded [19][21]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 17, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 14.15 times, 11.95 times, 33.44 times, and 45.68 times respectively [24][25]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the A - share market are provided in the report, and last week, the capital interest rate dropped, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds [27].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot market experienced a trend of rising first and then falling, influenced by supply disruptions and concerns over increased transportation costs due to proposed fees on U.S. vessels, followed by a rapid price correction due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and weak domestic steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The iron ore price initially surged due to supply disruptions from a safety incident in Guinea and concerns over transportation costs, but later corrected sharply as trade tensions escalated and domestic steel demand remained weak [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 14 million tons by October 10, with a slight recovery in shipments from major mining companies, while non-mainstream mines contributed significantly to the increase due to high prices [3]. - As of October 17, iron ore port inventories rose by 2.54 million tons to 142.78 million tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased to 89.83 million tons, the lowest for the same period since 2020 [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Performance - Steel mills are facing squeezed profit margins due to sluggish sales and declining prices, with the average profit for rebar production dropping from nearly 300 CNY/ton to just 20 CNY/ton, nearing breakeven [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills remained stable at 84.27%, but the average daily pig iron output decreased slightly, indicating potential production cuts if prices continue to fall [4]. - The market is currently focused on the low profit levels of steel mills, which may lead to further production cuts if raw material prices remain high and finished product prices continue to decline [4]. Group 3: Macro Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit in November is seen as a critical point for potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which could impact macroeconomic expectations positively [2]. - Global liquidity is marginally easing due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, providing external space for domestic policy easing [2]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, potentially supporting commodity prices, while the iron ore market is anticipated to remain in a state of oversupply with low demand and increasing port inventories [5][6].

Group 1 - The global economy is at the end of a major cycle, with the old order collapsing and a new order being rebuilt, leading to increased economic, financial, geopolitical, and ideological turbulence [2][4][6] - The essence of current geopolitical tensions, such as US-China trade friction and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, can be understood through the lens of the economic and social cycles [3][4] - Historical patterns indicate that economic hegemony transitions from productive to non-productive, leading to the decline of dominant powers and a reshaping of global economic and political landscapes [4][5][6] Group 2 - The US-China trade friction is fundamentally a strategic containment effort by the US, which has long-term implications for both nations [8][9] - The changing dynamics of US-China relations are influenced by China's rise and the increasing competition in various sectors, including technology and trade [8][9][10] - China must focus on high-quality development and reform to navigate the challenges posed by the trade conflict and maintain a balanced relationship with the US [10][11] Group 3 - China's economic strategy is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development, addressing challenges such as aging population and global economic shifts [12][14] - The new infrastructure initiatives, including digital economy and renewable energy, are set to replace traditional sectors like real estate as the main drivers of economic growth [15][16][18] - The transition to a new economic model emphasizes innovation, technology, and sustainable development, which are crucial for future growth [34][35] Group 4 - Urbanization in China is entering a new phase, with significant population migration towards metropolitan areas, impacting regional economic dynamics [23][24] - The real estate market is transitioning to a stock-based model, leading to regional disparities and a potential industry reshuffle [25][26][27] - The aging population and declining birth rates are shifting the economic focus from demographic dividends to talent dividends, necessitating structural changes in the economy [29][30][31] Group 5 - The rise of the new energy sector, particularly in electric vehicles, presents significant growth opportunities for China, positioning it as a leader in the upcoming energy revolution [18][19] - The acceptance and adoption of electric vehicles are increasing, with market penetration expected to grow substantially in the coming years [20][21][22] - The integration of smart technology with electric vehicles is anticipated to enhance consumer experience and drive further adoption [22]