Group 1 - PTA prices have been declining since September, falling below 4400 yuan/ton due to decreasing crude oil prices and strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] - The geopolitical situation, including unresolved issues between Russia and Ukraine, continues to provide support for crude oil prices, which may lead to a rebound after significant declines [2] - The PTA industry is currently experiencing low processing fees, with a spot processing fee of 122 yuan/ton as of October 21, indicating a loss situation [3] Group 2 - There are signs of improvement in domestic demand as the winter clothing business enters a peak season, with strong demand for knitted and plush products [4] - Polyester production and sales are gradually increasing, with the processing fees for most polyester products improving significantly, while the inventory pressure remains manageable [4] - If new rounds of Sino-US trade negotiations yield positive signals, it could lead to strong external demand replenishment [4] Group 3 - Overall analysis suggests that PTA prices are likely to find a bottom in the short term due to the support from crude oil price recovery, limited supply growth, and improving domestic demand [5] - The combination of these factors is expected to support a strengthening of PTA prices and a recovery in processing fees [5]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank has raised its forecast for Hong Kong's economic growth for the year to 2.8%, approaching the upper limit of the Hong Kong SAR government's prediction of 2% to 3% [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The bank revised its full-year economic growth forecast for Hong Kong from 2.2% to 2.8% [1] - Growth predictions for the third and fourth quarters have been increased to 3.2% and 1.8%, respectively, which is 1% higher than previous estimates [1] Business Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Business sentiment in Hong Kong improved in the third quarter, supported by stable export growth from July to August, ongoing retail sales recovery, active financial markets, and signs of stability in the property market [1] - These factors reflect a relatively stable external environment positively impacting economic growth [1] Trade Relations and Risks - Despite the resurgence of the US-China trade conflict in the fourth quarter, the bank believes the risk of retaliatory actions similar to those in April is low [1] - Ongoing dialogue between the two parties may extend the trade truce and lead to more agreements [1] Local Economic Challenges - The local economy faces risks from potential ongoing US-China trade tensions, diminishing export effects, and delayed impacts on the local labor market [1] - However, robust economic growth in mainland China, projected at 4.9% for the year, along with government support measures, may alleviate some adverse factors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Gold closed at 999.80 with a weekly increase of 10.90%, silver at 12249.00 with a 10.53% increase, and polycrystalline silicon at 52340.00 with a 6.89% increase. - Crude oil closed at 432.60 with a 6.34% decrease, glass at 1095.00 with a 9.28% decrease, and PTA at 4402.00 with a 2.91% decrease [2]. 2.2 A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4514.23 with a 2.22% decrease, the CSI 500 Index at 7016.07 with a 5.17% decrease, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index at 2967.77 with a 0.24% decrease [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22679.97 with a 3.24% increase, the S&P 500 Index at 6664.01 with a 1.70% increase, and the Hang Seng Index at 25247.10 with a 3.97% decrease [2]. 2.4 Bonds - The yield of the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond was 1.50 with an increase of 1.25 bp, the 10 - year was 1.84 with a 0.5 bp decrease, and the 5 - year was 1.60 with a 0.13 bp increase [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index closed at 98.56 with a 0.27% decrease, the US dollar central parity rate at 7.09 with a 0.14% decrease, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate at 1.17 with a 0.24% increase [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, Fed rate - cut expectations, potential RMB appreciation, stable market expectations, and improved domestic M1 growth [4]. - Bearish logic: Profit - taking in the technology sector, low risk appetite before Sino - US trade resolution, limited policy stimulus, and reduced A - share trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Weak economic data, loose liquidity, and market risk aversion [4]. - Bearish logic: Potential incremental policies, unimplemented domestic rate cuts, and possible recovery of risk assets [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, approaching break - even price, undervalued fundamentals, and US strategic oil purchase [5]. - Bearish logic: Saudi production increase, EU's call for end of war, rising Russian exports, high US inventory, and expected supply surplus [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Limited production potential, policy plans, low import data, and stable spot prices [5]. - Bearish logic: Increased Malaysian production, falling oil prices, low cost - effectiveness, and weak market sentiment [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, low supply, seasonal demand, long - term demand growth, and policy support [6]. - Bearish logic: Trade friction risks, hedging pressure, low market attention, and weak spot trading [6]. 3.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive sentiment during meetings, cost support, reduced inventory, and policy expectations [6]. - Bearish logic: High intermediate inventory, unclear production - cut policies, low orders, and weak real - estate data [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed rate - cut expectations, repeated conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced US banking concerns, short - term profit - taking, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Safety inspections, supply disruptions, high iron - water production, and positive market sentiment [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced steel - mill profits, stable supply, weak demand, and unclear trade friction [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is currently focused on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may experience a slight rebound, but the weak fundamentals limit the upside potential, and a subsequent decline is likely. Short - term outlook is for a rebound, while the medium - to - long - term remains weak [3]. - The iron ore market is operating weakly under macro - sentiment and fundamental pressures. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. The price may be supported if there are positive policy signals [18]. - The coking coal market has strong bottom support due to tight resources and policy expectations, but the rebound space is limited by downstream contradictions. The price rebound depends on the downstream steel supply - demand balance [30]. - The ferroalloy market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory. Without unexpected stimulus policies, prices will remain under pressure [48]. - The soda ash market has supply pressure in the long - term. Although exports are better than expected, high inventory restricts the price, with limited downside due to cost support [61]. - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, and prices are suppressed. The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe and production line ignition plans need to be monitored [86]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up from 3047 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, up from - 57 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3247 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3219 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up from - 17 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar - to - iron ore ratio and rebar - to - coke ratio remained stable on the 22nd compared to the 21st [15]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The aggregated rebar price in China was 3215 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up slightly from 3212 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 142 yuan/ton, down from 153 yuan/ton [7]. - The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3270 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 33 yuan/ton, down from 51 yuan/ton [9]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Basis** - On October 22, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the 21st. The 01 basis was 7.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the 21st [19]. - The price of Rizhao PB powder was 779 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 2 yuan from the 21st [19]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig - iron output was 240.95 million tons on October 17, 2025, down 0.59 million tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 14278.27 million tons, up 253.77 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan week - on - week. The coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the 21st [35]. - The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1594 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st. The coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 220 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the 21st [35]. - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1550 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 20 yuan week - on - week. The immediate coking profit was 31 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the 21st [36]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On October 22, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan, down 14 yuan from the 21st. The silicon iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan, down 24 yuan from the 21st [49]. - The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the 21st [49]. - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 220 yuan on the 22nd, down 64 yuan from the 21st. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 38 yuan, down 4 yuan from the 21st [52]. - The silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st [52]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 62 yuan, up 1 yuan from the 21st [62]. - **Spot Prices** - The heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton on the 22nd, unchanged from the 21st. The heavy - soda ash to light - soda ash price difference in North China was 100 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1241 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 89 yuan, down 3 yuan from the 21st [86]. - **Sales and Production** - On October 21, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 59%, in Hubei was 86%, in East China was 84%, and in South China was 98% [87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Aluminum Oxide, Glass, Asphalt [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Silver, Electrolytic Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Bean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Fuel Oil, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PF, PVC, High - Concentration Alkali [1] - **Wait - and - See**: Crude Oil, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] Core Views - In the short term, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1]. - Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate. The domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. - The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]. - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so the price of carbonate lithium is bullish [1]. - The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coil are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1]. - The direct demand for manganese silicon is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The short - term production profit of ferrosilicon is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1]. - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening. Soda ash follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1]. - The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month palm oil contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1]. - The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1]. - The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1]. - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1]. - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1]. - The trading logic of pulp lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1]. - The spot price of logs is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices of crude oil and fuel oil are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - US tariffs affect the demand for natural rubber, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - The fundamentals and sentiment of PTA are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1]. - The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1]. - The short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1]. - The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory of styrene is expected to accumulate further [1]. - The export sentiment of urea has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1]. - The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price of PF is oscillating strongly [1]. - The support of maintenance for some products is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price returns to the fundamentals and oscillates weakly [1]. - The PVC futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price oscillates weakly [1]. - Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent maintenance concentration is decreasing, the digestion of warehouse receipts is not smooth, and the price of high - concentration alkali is inverted [1]. - OPEC's production increase, the weakening of international CP/FEI prices, and the tight domestic butane fundamentals drive the valuation repair of PG prices [1]. - The price of container shipping to Europe has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Catalog Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month and the repeated tariff policies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so it is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Aluminum Oxide**: The domestic production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1] - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1] - **Tin**: The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production in October has increased more than expected, and the demand for organic silicon is weak [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long term. In October, the supply increases while the demand decreases, and the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, so the market sentiment has subsided [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so it is bullish [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The industrial drivers are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The direct demand is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - **Soda Ash**: Follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap before the holiday, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge the previous highs again, but the difficulty of breakthrough is large. It depends on whether there are new statements about "anti - involution" in the domestic important meeting communique this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1] - **Cotton**: The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1] - **Sugar**: Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1] - **Corn**: The market is concerned about the selling pressure of the spot in the producing areas after the end of October. However, the acquisition attitude towards high - quality corn in Northeast China is positive, and the downward space of the C01 contract is expected to be limited [1] - **Bean Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1] - **Pulp**: The trading logic lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1] - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - **Natural Rubber**: US tariffs affect the demand, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1] - **PTA**: The fundamentals and sentiment are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1] - **Short Fiber**: The plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory is expected to accumulate further [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1] - **PF**: The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price oscillates strongly [1] - **PVC**: The futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so it oscillates weakly [1] - **High - Concentration Alkali**: Many alumina

金融期货早评 宏观：关注四中全会与 APEC 峰会 【市场资讯】1）王文涛部长与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈。 王文涛部长与荷兰经济大臣卡雷曼斯通话。2）俄乌进程一波三折："特普会"筹备遇阻，欧 洲首次明确响应特朗普，呼吁"立即停火"。3）高市早苗当选日本首相，内阁完成认证，正 式成立。 【核心逻辑】国内层面，中美贸易局势缓和的预期有所升温，后续需将中美贸易谈判进程 作为核心关注方向，但短期内对谈判成果不宜抱有过高期待。数据方面，三季度 GDP 同比 增速如期边际放缓，而 GDP 平减指数则呈现边际回升态势；从 9 月经济数据来看，生产端 韧性仍存，需求端则出现一定回落。近期财政发力托底经济的意图十分明确，后续经济复 苏的关键将取决于内需层面的修复节奏与力度。海外方面，美国政府停摆致数据真空，市 场对经济担忧暂缓但风险仍存，预计美联储 10 月降息 25 个基点，然因市场提前定价，实 际影响或有限。 人民币汇率：高市早苗当选首相 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1171，较上一交易日上涨 60 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1250。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges due to the absence of Chinese purchases, leading to a "bumper harvest but unsold" crisis, with exports stagnating and prices under pressure [3][19]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean futures prices have been fluctuating between 1000 to 1050 cents per bushel since October, with weakening supply-demand conditions and uncertainty in global trade [1]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report has been delayed due to the government shutdown, increasing market uncertainty as trading relies on estimates from market analysis firms [2]. - The USDA's September report indicated an increase in U.S. soybean planting area by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, with total production rising by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels, despite a slight decrease in yield [2]. Group 2: Export Challenges - The U.S. soybean export market is heavily reliant on China, which has seen a drastic drop in purchases from 13 million tons last year to zero for the new season due to trade tensions [4][3]. - In the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean exports to China are expected to decline by 8.1% to 22.48 million tons, with the share of total exports dropping from 54% to 44% [4]. - The overall expectation for U.S. soybean ending stocks is increasing due to reduced export demand and rising domestic inventories [2][3]. Group 3: South American Soybean Market - In contrast to the U.S., Brazil's soybean exports are experiencing strong growth, with October exports reaching 2.166 million tons, a 26.5% year-on-year increase [7]. - Argentina is also seeing a rise in soybean pre-sales and export license applications, indicating robust export potential despite recent slowdowns [8][10]. - The overall dominance of South American soybeans in the global market is expected to continue, with Brazil and Argentina benefiting from favorable weather conditions and policy support [12][19]. Group 4: Soybean Crushing and Demand - U.S. soybean crushing remains at historically high levels, with September crushing volume reaching 19.78 million bushels, a 4.24% month-on-month increase [13]. - However, soybean crushing profits are declining due to lower meal prices and competition from Argentine exports, which are impacting U.S. market share [13][14]. - The future of U.S. soybean crushing will depend on domestic biodiesel policies and the ability to maintain competitive pricing against South American soy products [14]. Group 5: Weather and Planting Conditions - The focus has shifted to South American planting conditions, with Argentina experiencing favorable moisture levels for soybean planting, while Brazil faces mixed weather challenges [16][17]. - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence soybean yields, with Argentina showing potential for high yields while Brazil's southern regions may face drought risks [18]. - The overall global soybean market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, heavily influenced by policy decisions and weather conditions [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the short - term index faces uncertainties due to the rapid rotation of hot sectors and reduced risk appetite. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [3]. - For the bond market, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is likely to maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases, the bond market is expected to recover [5]. - For precious metals, although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices still have room to rise in the future but need some consolidation time. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position idea and go long on dips after the price stabilizes [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals' prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations and industrial supply - demand. Some metals are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others are expected to be weak [11][15][17]. - For black building materials, steel prices are affected by macro policies and fundamentals. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to weak terminal demand and macro disturbances. Glass and soda ash markets are weak due to supply - demand imbalances [34][36][38]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices have risen significantly in the short - term, and short - term long - position with stop - loss is recommended. Crude oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term, and a wait - and - see approach is suggested. Other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [53][55]. - For agricultural products, the supply of pigs and eggs exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. For soybeans and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term. For oils and fats, a mid - term stable buying idea is recommended. For sugar, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter. For cotton, the upward space is expected to be limited [77][79][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods are presented [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, the short - term index is uncertain, but long - term policy support remains, suggesting long - term long - position on dips [3]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Tuesday. There are diplomatic and political news, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of 685 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial for the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The market is expected to be volatile, and it may recover if the stock market cools down [5]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices fell. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported, and relevant market indicators such as the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are given [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices have room to rise in the future. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position and go long on dips after price stabilization [7][8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillated and declined. LME and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories changed, and the spot premium and import losses are reported [10]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiation uncertainty remains, but sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price may strengthen after short - term oscillation [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded. The positions, inventories, and spot premiums of domestic and foreign markets changed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased marginally. The low domestic inventory and tight overseas supply, along with the strong copper price, support the aluminum price, which may rise in the short - term [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [14]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc mine inventory decreased, and the total zinc ingot inventory increased. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are low, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the smelting and downstream demand conditions improved. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market, cost, and demand of nickel are reported [18]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - position on significant dips [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply and demand situation of tin is reported [21]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate was stable. The import volume and futures price changed [23]. - **Strategy**: There is a shortage of supply in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing. The price may continue to rise if consumption is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipts and supply [24]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The positions, basis, and inventory are reported [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price has short - term support, but the over - capacity in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply policies and monetary policies [27]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and inventory are reported [28]. - **Strategy**: The price increase of the 304 cold - rolled limit by the steel mill has boosted market confidence, but the demand is not strong enough to support continuous price increases. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded. The positions, inventory, and price differences are reported [30]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [31]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The positions, warehouse receipts, and spot prices are reported [33]. - **Strategy**: The commodity market was weak, and steel prices were volatile. The macro policies and fundamentals need to be focused on [34]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore supply increased, and the demand decreased due to weak steel mill profits. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and support levels need to be watched [36]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. The inventory and positions increased [37][39]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is weak due to weak demand and high inventory. The soda ash market has a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory, and the price is expected to be weak [38][40]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [41]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction affects the market, but the current situation may be mostly priced in. The black market is not expected to be pessimistic, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [44][46]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and the price is expected to be volatile. Polysilicon supply is expected to decrease at the end of the month, and the price is in a corrective phase in the oscillation range [45][47]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and the stock market. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices rose significantly in the short - term. It is recommended to set stop - loss for short - term long - position and partially build positions for hedging [53]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices fell. The inventory of the Fujaiera port changed [54]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [55]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [56]. - **Strategy**: The import unloading is delayed, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by winter gas restrictions, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [58]. - **Strategy**: The short - term production decreased due to equipment failures, and the demand is weak. The price is at a low level and is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position on dips [59]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory are reported [60]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The supply is abundant, and the demand is increasing. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [61]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [62]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to be poor. The price is at a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [63]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [65]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [69]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to reduce. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuations [70]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [71]. - **Strategy**: The cost support is weakening, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be volatile at a low level [72]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [73]. - **Strategy**: The cost supply is in an oversupply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be affected by the cost and demand [74]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose. The supply and demand situation is reported [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply exceeds demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to succeed. It is recommended to sell on rallies [77]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices fell. The supply and demand situation is reported [78]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited. The disk is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [80]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [82]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of palm oil and the export of Brazilian agricultural products are reported. Domestic oil prices fell [83]. - **Strategy**: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy, and the reduced export of palm oil support the price. It is recommended to take a mid - term stable buying approach [84]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated slightly. The Brazilian export and price reduction of gasoline are reported [85]. - **Strategy**: The production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86][87]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [88]. - **Strategy**: The consumption demand is weak, and the new cotton production is expected to be high. The upward space of the price is limited [89].

黑色建材日报 2025-10-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3047 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 129796 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 199.5833 万手，环比减少 10093 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3110 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3219 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 113657 吨, 环比减少 2375 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the critical role of rare earth elements in global high-tech industries and highlights China's dominance in the rare earth market, controlling approximately 70% of global production [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have intensified, particularly regarding rare earth exports, with the U.S. seeking to reduce its dependency on Chinese supplies [4][10] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - In 2025, the U.S. attempted to negotiate tariff exemptions in exchange for rare earth supplies, but China remained firm, leading to a temporary agreement on tariffs without progress on the rare earth issue [4] - The U.S. has accused China of threatening the global supply chain due to its rare earth export controls, with Trump threatening to impose 100% tariffs in response to China's actions [4][10] Group 2: U.S. Strategies to Secure Rare Earths - The U.S. has sought to find intermediaries, such as South Korea and Japan, to source rare earths from China, but faced challenges due to China's warnings against such practices [5] - The U.S. has also turned to Ukraine for rare earth development, offering financial and technical support in exchange for access to its resources, although the potential output is limited [5] Group 3: Smuggling and Illicit Activities - There has been a notable increase in rare earth smuggling cases linked to U.S. companies, with various methods employed to disguise shipments [7][8] - Some U.S. companies have reported smuggling activities to Chinese authorities, indicating a complex relationship where companies are frustrated with market disruptions caused by smuggling [8] Group 4: Future Implications and Strategies - The article emphasizes the need for China to maintain its control over rare earth resources in light of U.S. pressures and the potential for a decoupling of supply chains [10][12] - The U.S. is investing in domestic production and partnerships, such as funding for Australian companies to increase rare earth output, but significant gaps remain compared to China's production capabilities [12]