特朗普政府自4月以来对欧盟、墨西哥等国加征的30%关税，理论上已通过供应链传导至消费端。野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文指出，尽管前期企业通过囤 积库存缓冲了关税影响，但随着6月补库周期开启，进口商品成本上升将逐步反映在价格中。数据显示，6月美国制造业PMI价格指数升至58.2，创8个月新 高，服装、汽车零部件等关税敏感商品价格环比涨幅超1.5%。 截至7月15日亚盘早市，现货黄金价格报3345.22美元/盎司，较昨日高点3374.78美元回落近30美元，市场对晚间20:30公布的美国6月CPI数据充满期待。本次 数据将成为验证特朗普关税政策是否已实际推升通胀的关键节点，同时直接影响市场对美联储9月降息的预期。根据权威机构预测，6月总体CPI同比涨幅或 达2.7%，核心CPI可能攀升至3.0%，创半年新高。 一、关税冲击能否在6月CPI中显现？ 当前联邦基金利率期货显示，市场对9月降息的预期概率已降至48%，较上周下降12个百分点。若6月CPI符合或超过预期，可能进一步强化美联储维持高利 率的立场。野村预测，若核心CPI同比突破3.0%，美联储可能将首次降息推迟至12月，全年降息幅度缩减至25个基点。 反之，若CP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1st, causing pressure on both Shanghai and London copper prices. Last week, Shanghai copper witnessed a significant decline with reduced positions and lower market attention. The market is concerned about the upcoming tariff implementation, which may lead to a closure of the US import window and a notable drop in US imports. As a result, supply in non - US regions may increase, causing the prices of London and Shanghai copper to fall. The spot premium of London and Shanghai copper decreased significantly last week, indicating a relief in the shortage of spot copper. In the short term, due to the tariff impact, copper prices have dropped to the June price center. With positive domestic macro - expectations, a general rise in commodities and the stock market, and strong industrial support, Shanghai copper may receive strong support, and the LME import loss is narrowing rapidly. Technically, both Shanghai and London copper have strong support at the June price center [3][60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded to previous highs, and the trading volume also increased, showing strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment has largely boosted aluminum prices, as commodities and the stock market generally rose last week, especially the black metal sector. In the industry, as the prices of alumina and coal continue to rebound, the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, and the profit margin at the high level has declined. The downstream is in the off - season of consumption, and combined with the rising aluminum prices, the destocking of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods at a low level has continued to rise, which has a certain drag on aluminum prices. With a good domestic macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Local time on July 12th, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show copper futures prices, Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount seasonality, Shanghai copper positions, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc [10][11][13][14]. 3.2.2 Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic ore and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [24]. 3.2.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Copper Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the data of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [28][29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including copper rods, tubes, bars, and strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show aluminum prices, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum monthly spread, etc [33][34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - Figures show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina [46][49]. 3.3.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Aluminum Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, as shown by the data of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [50][51]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][57][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the impact of the US copper tariff on copper prices and the influence of domestic macro - environment and industrial factors on aluminum prices [60].

Economic Performance - The UK economy has entered a recession for the second consecutive month, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, slightly better than April's 0.3% drop but still below economists' expectations of a 0.1% growth [1] - If June's output falls by 0.4% or more, the second quarter will show a significant deterioration compared to the 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1] Currency and Fiscal Pressure - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.3% to 1.3545 USD, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [1] - The Labour government faces dual pressures to support fiscal spending goals through economic growth while managing recent policy reversals that have exacerbated fiscal challenges [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main contributors to the economic decline, with May output experiencing the largest drop in nearly 18 months [3] - The decline is attributed to ongoing economic weakness from April, U.S. tariff pressures, and rising household energy bills and property taxes [3] - The services sector also showed weak performance, with only a 0.1% growth in May, and retail sales significantly decreased [3] Employment and Taxation - Employers are facing an additional £26 billion in new payroll taxes, alongside rising regulated prices for services like rail fares and water, which are contributing to the economic downturn [5] - Since the budget announcement last October, over 250,000 jobs have been cut as businesses respond to significant increases in minimum wage [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - With inflation pressures easing, the market anticipates that the Bank of England will initiate interest rate cuts in August, with another expected by the end of the year [5] - Analysts suggest that the growth seen in the first quarter was a one-off event, primarily driven by preemptive production increases before the implementation of U.S. tariffs [5]

Core Insights - Amazon's Prime Day sales performance in the first four hours showed a nearly 14% decline compared to the previous year, indicating challenges from reduced consumer purchasing power and tariff impacts [1][3][4] - The event duration has been extended from two days to four days, which may complicate year-over-year comparisons but could also help Amazon manage sales pressure [3][4] Sales Performance - The first four hours of this year's Prime Day saw a significant drop in sales, with data from Momentum Commerce highlighting the underperformance relative to expectations [1][4] - Despite the extended duration, early sales figures are critical indicators of the overall success of the event [4] External Challenges - Tariff policies implemented during the Trump administration have increased import prices, leading some sellers to withdraw from promotional activities [4] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with retailers like Walmart and Target also launching similar promotional events during the same period [5] Consumer Behavior - There is a shift in consumer preferences towards essential items, with retailers engaging in price wars over daily necessities rather than technology products [5] - Discounts on electronic products, particularly from Apple, have been more substantial compared to Amazon's own product discounts [4][5] Market Expectations - Adobe forecasts that total online sales across all retailers during the four-day event will reach $23.8 billion, with eMarketer estimating that U.S. online spending will hit $17.2 billion, of which Amazon is expected to capture 75% [5] - As of March this year, the number of Prime members in the U.S. reached 196 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest report addresses ten key global economic concerns, highlighting the complex challenges facing the global economy, including tariff impacts and dollar depreciation [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Growth - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. are equivalent to a 1.5% GDP tax on importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion [2][3]. - UBS's global growth tracking shows a mere 1.3% annualized growth rate, placing it in the 8th percentile historically [5]. - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data post-tariff announcements, with hard data showing a 3.6% annualized growth while soft data reflects only 1.3% [2]. Group 2: Dollar Depreciation - UBS holds a cyclical bearish view on the dollar but does not see it as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [10]. - The dollar's depreciation is driven by increased demand for hedging against dollar declines, a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy, and improving growth trends in other regions [10]. - Foreign investors hold $31.3 trillion in U.S. long-term securities, with a potential $1.25 trillion in dollar sell-off if hedging ratios increase by 5% [10]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the July CPI data, with a lag of 2-3 months observed in previous tariff implementations [14][13]. - The 10% general tariff is anticipated to have the most inflationary effect, similar to past experiences [14]. Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Outlook - The majority of changes in the U.S. budget deficit stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about long-term supply of U.S. Treasuries [23][24]. - UBS estimates that the 10-year Treasury yield's bottom should be around 2.75% even in tight conditions [26]. Group 5: Global Central Bank Responses - The actual impact of tariff shocks has differed significantly from expectations, leading to a shift in central bank policies [46]. - Since April 2, developed market one-year interest rates have decreased by an average of 30 basis points, while emerging markets have seen a decline of about 50 basis points [46]. Group 6: China's Economic Stimulus - China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and announced moderate policy stimulus measures, with fiscal deficits expected to expand to 1.5-2% of GDP [51]. - UBS anticipates further fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding 0.5% of GDP, with additional interest rate cuts expected [55][56].

Core Viewpoint - Germany's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, with a significant drop of 7.7% in exports to the U.S., marking the lowest level in over three years, highlighting the ongoing impact of tariff threats on Europe's largest economy [1][3]. Group 1: Export Data - In May, Germany's goods exports fell by 1.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected decline of 0.5% [1]. - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 7.7%, with a value of €12.1 billion, the lowest since March 2022 [3]. - In April, U.S. tariffs had already caused a decline of approximately 10% in German exports to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Joachim Nagel, the President of the German Central Bank, warned of significant short-term economic challenges, with the bank projecting that the German economy will stagnate this year [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, there is some optimism due to the German government's plans to significantly increase defense and infrastructure spending [6]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The EU is actively seeking to alleviate tariff pressures through trade negotiations, aiming to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline [4][8]. - Reports indicate that the EU is close to reaching a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to secure a 10% tariff rate, with no indication of increased tariffs for the EU [9]. Group 4: Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Germany's GDP grew by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, partly due to exporters increasing shipments before U.S. tariffs took effect [7]. - Recent data showed an unexpected rise in Germany's industrial output in May, supporting hopes for the economy to recover from years of stagnation [7].

Group 1 - UBS's latest report addresses ten global economic concerns, including tariff impacts and dollar depreciation, highlighting the complexity of current global economic challenges [1][2] - The report indicates that U.S. tariffs equate to a tax of approximately 1.5% of GDP on importers, with annual tariff revenues exceeding $300 billion [2][5] - Global growth tracking shows a mere 1.3% annualized growth rate, placing it in the 8th percentile historically [5][6] Group 2 - UBS maintains a cyclical bearish view on the dollar but does not foresee a long-term depreciation trend [9][10] - The report suggests that the current dollar sell-off is driven by increased hedging demand, a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy, and improving growth trends in other regions [10][11] Group 3 - Tariffs have a delayed impact on inflation, with UBS estimating a 1.1% increase in PCE prices due to tariffs, which has yet to be reflected in official CPI data [11][13] - The report anticipates that the significant effects of tariffs on major inflation indicators will become evident in the July CPI data [14][19] Group 4 - UBS expresses concerns about the long-term supply of U.S. Treasuries, with a potential bottom for the 10-year yield at 2.75% [25] - Evidence of foreign investors reducing exposure to U.S. assets is noted, with net sales of $50.6 billion in U.S. long-term securities in April [26][29] Group 5 - The report highlights that European equities present a valuation advantage over U.S. stocks, with adjusted P/E ratios for European stocks being 25% lower than those in the U.S. [36] - UBS expects the "Big Beautiful Plan" to contribute approximately 45 basis points to U.S. growth before fiscal drag becomes apparent [40][43] Group 6 - Central banks are shifting towards more accommodative policies in response to tariff impacts, with developed market rates declining by an average of 30 basis points since April [44] - China is expected to implement additional fiscal stimulus measures, with a projected increase in the fiscal deficit to 1.5-2% of GDP [49][52]

Market Review and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 1110 billion, 6416 billion, and 1150 billion respectively, with net financing of 1110 billion, 5604 billion, and 1093 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 839 billion with a net financing of 612 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 2889 billion and a net financing of 11 billion [1] - The secondary market exhibited a fluctuating performance influenced by factors such as cross-quarter liquidity, the ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, military parade news, and market sentiment [1] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) showed a net injection, and the medium-term lending facility (MLF) was rolled over, supporting the cross-quarter liquidity [1] - The R001 and R007 rates increased by 1.2 basis points and 32.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [1] Policy and Fundamentals - In May, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative, impacted by base effect, price wars, and tariff shocks [1] - High-frequency data indicates stable production, sluggish consumption, and continued pressure on prices, with a significant drop in oil prices following the ceasefire [1] Overseas Market - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish views, and weakening economic data in the U.S. has raised market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.29%, down 9 basis points from the previous week [1] Equity Market - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a rise in most broad-based A-share indices, with the total A-share index increasing by 3.56% and the ChiNext index rising by 5.69% [2] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares surged to 1.49 trillion, with a weekly increase of 2716.46 billion [2] - As of June 26, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares reached 18265.35 billion, an increase of 173.68 billion from June 19 [2] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favoring the bond market are increasing in July, although the central bank's monetary policy tone may lead to a temporary market sentiment adjustment [2] - Historical trends suggest that bond market bullish forces may strengthen in July due to seasonal liquidity easing and reduced bank liability pressure [2] - A recommended strategy includes a combination of short to medium-term credit bonds and long-duration government bonds [2] - The convertible bond market faces supply-demand imbalances, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, leading to a scarcity of underlying assets [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. labor market** and its implications for the economy, particularly focusing on the **unemployment rate** and its potential impact on market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments - The **current unemployment rate** in the U.S. is fluctuating between **3.6% and 4.0%**, nearing the threshold that could trigger the **"Summer Rule,"** indicating a risk of economic recession, similar to the market reactions observed in **Q3 2024** [1][2] - The **labor market** has cooled to pre-pandemic levels, with a significant decrease in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, suggesting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [1][3] - **Immigration policies** have a dual impact on the job market: initially filling labor shortages but later increasing competition with native workers, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate among immigrants [1][4] - Leading indicators show a continued weakening in employment demand, with key metrics like non-farm payroll data indicating a potential acceleration in labor market cooling in the latter half of the year [1][5] Additional Important Content - The **Trump administration** saw a historic high in immigration detentions, but the overcapacity of detention facilities limited the effectiveness of deportations on the job market [1][8] - The **impact of tariffs** on the U.S. economy and job market is significant, with broader and stronger tariffs potentially leading to a **1% economic shock** and an increase in the unemployment rate by **0.3% to 0.7%** [1][10] - Market expectations suggest that the unemployment rate could reach around **4.5%** by the end of the year, with a possibility of hitting **4.6%**, which may trigger the **Summer Rule** [2][11] - The **Summer Rule** indicates that if the unemployment rate rises by **0.5 percentage points**, it signals a recession, with potential market reactions including stock market declines and increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][12] - If the **Summer Rule** is triggered in the latter half of the year, it could lead to significant market changes, including a drop in stock prices and commodity prices, alongside a rise in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][13] - There are internal divisions within the **Federal Reserve** regarding inflation and employment, with differing views on whether to prioritize inflation control or employment protection [2][14]

Core Viewpoint - The second half of the year is expected to see a phase synchronization of domestic and foreign policy rhythms, with a focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Despite differing economic cycles between China and the U.S., uncertainties from tariff impacts are leading to synchronized policy rhythms in the second half of the year [1] - In the first half of Q3, both domestic and foreign economies are expected to show resilience, with policies focusing on cautious management of expectations [1] - By the latter part of Q3, export pressures in China and increasing pressures in the U.S. are anticipated, with more incremental policies likely to be introduced in Q4 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. is expected to maintain some resilience in Q3, supporting risk appetite, but uncertainties from tariffs and debt risks may increase market volatility [1] - In Q4, as pressures in the U.S. mount, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts may support risk asset valuations through liquidity [1] - The U.S. fiscal year budget deadline and the expiration of "reciprocal tariffs" in September may lead to significant market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic conditions are expected to remain weak but stable, with infrastructure spending providing upward support in the second half of the year [1] - Export growth is projected to slow down in August, with a neutral year-on-year growth expectation of around 1.5% [1] - Infrastructure funding is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, while real estate policies continue to strengthen [1] Group 4: Asset Allocation - Domestic assets are expected to focus on structural opportunities, with a policy-driven logic becoming more pronounced [1] - Equity markets are anticipated to continue with dividend and growth styles, focusing on undervalued sectors, while commodities will focus on black building materials and agricultural products [1] - Bonds are recommended for low-cost allocation, benefiting from expectations of loose monetary policy in Q4 [1] Group 5: International Market Considerations - International assets should be aligned with the weak dollar theme, while being cautious of volatility spikes [1] - U.S. stocks are expected to experience fluctuations in the first half of Q3, with potential relief from valuation pressures in Q4 due to rate cuts [1] - Non-dollar assets are likely to benefit in a weak dollar environment, while gold and other resource commodities are recommended for long-term strategic allocation [1]