Group 1: Tariff Impact - The tariffs may lead to a GDP decline of 0.6-1.4 percentage points in 2025[2] - Exports to the US are expected to shrink by 40-80%, resulting in a 6-12% drop in overall exports[10] - Employment is projected to decrease by approximately 4.5 million jobs due to reduced exports[16] Group 2: Domestic Demand Buffer - In an optimistic scenario, domestic demand could offset about 1 percentage point of the growth gap[3] - Manufacturing investment is expected to decline by 2.0-3.5 percentage points due to tariff impacts[31] - Government consumption is anticipated to increase GDP by approximately 1 percentage point, driven by counter-cyclical policies[42] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to increase fiscal reserves by 800 billion yuan to counteract the growth gap[4] - Strengthening the stock and real estate markets is recommended to leverage wealth effects for economic circulation[4] - Accelerating supply-side reforms in the service sector is crucial to unlock potential[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Walmart and other U.S. retailers due to increased tariffs, leading to layoffs and potential price hikes for consumers as they navigate cost pressures and competition in the retail sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Walmart's Response to Tariffs - Walmart plans to lay off approximately 1,500 employees as part of a restructuring effort to reduce costs amid rising tariff pressures [3]. - The company has already made cuts earlier in the year and is adjusting its organizational structure to better compete with e-commerce rivals like Amazon [3][4]. - Walmart's CEO indicated that while the company and its suppliers are absorbing some tariff costs, the scale of the tariffs makes it impossible to fully offset them [4]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Prices - Consumers in the U.S. are likely to see price increases starting from late May, with some items already experiencing price hikes of over 20% since February [5]. - The article highlights that a significant portion of Walmart's imported goods comes from China, which exacerbates the cost pressures due to tariffs [4][5]. - Analysts predict that overall food prices in the U.S. will rise by 2.6% over the next three years due to increased tariffs, with grocery prices expected to increase by 2.7% this year [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating growing concerns about the economy [8]. - The article notes that high inflation and interest rates could dampen consumer spending, which is crucial for the U.S. economy [7][8]. - Retail giants are attempting to mitigate the impact of tariffs by negotiating with suppliers and adjusting product offerings, but the pressure on prices remains significant [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Walmart and other U.S. retailers due to tariffs, leading to layoffs and potential price increases for consumers. Group 1: Company Actions - Walmart plans to lay off approximately 1,500 employees as part of a restructuring effort to reduce costs [2][3] - This is the second round of layoffs for Walmart in 2023, following earlier job cuts and office closures [3] - The layoffs will impact Walmart's global technology operations, e-commerce fulfillment in U.S. stores, and advertising business [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - Tariffs on imports from countries like Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, and especially China have significantly increased costs for Walmart [1][4] - Approximately one-third of Walmart's imported goods come from China, with a large portion being clothing, electronics, and toys [4] - Walmart's CFO indicated that while some tariff costs are being absorbed, the scale of the tariffs makes it impossible to fully mitigate their impact [4] Group 3: Consumer Price Trends - Consumers may start seeing price increases as early as the end of May, with some items already experiencing price hikes of over 20% since February [5] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise, with predictions of a 3.0-3.5% annual inflation rate [8] - The USDA forecasts a 3.2% increase in overall food prices this year, with grocery store prices expected to rise by 2.7% [8] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating potential challenges for retail sales [9] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects a significant decline, suggesting that consumers are tightening their spending [9] - Economic analysts express concerns that rising prices and high inflation could dampen consumer purchasing power and overall economic activity [8][10]

| 佤邦尚未复产前,锡价基本面支撑较强。 | | | 震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1、供给走强,需求走弱。2、进入低估值区间。3、需求端没有改 | | 工业硅 | 震荡 | | | 善、库存压力没有缓解。 | | | | | | 1、注册仓单量极少。2、首次交割在即,注册仓单量极少。3、期 | | 多晶硅 | | 货贴水现货,注册仓单意愿低。 | | 1、供给未现进一步收缩。2、显现库存持续累库,下游原料库存 | | 炭酸锂 | | | | 高位。3、价格低位下,下游仍维持刚需采买。 | | | | | | 现货处于旺季向淡季切换的窗口期,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 出口可能转弱的潜在风险仍未探明,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 热卷 | 看空 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 震荡 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水见顶预期,但供给端暂时没故事讲,关注钢材压力 | | 锰矿过剩预期下仍有下降预期,且品种仓单压力重。 | | 新住 | 看空 ...

Economic Performance - In April, the US PPI decreased by 0.5%, significantly below the expected increase of 0.2%, indicating a temporary absorption of tariff costs by manufacturers and service providers[13] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, reflecting resilience in the US labor market[15] - Retail sales in April showed a marginal increase of 0.1%, lower than the expected 0% and a revised previous value of 1.7%[19] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to manifest later, as April's economic data shows structural damage due to tariffs, but current economic activities are rebounding[5] - Walmart's earnings report indicated strong sales but warned of future price increases due to the inability to absorb tariffs long-term[5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is considering modifying its policy framework to adapt to changing economic conditions, potentially returning to a traditional inflation target of 2%[20] - The recent adjustment in the Fed's framework is not expected to significantly impact current monetary policy decisions in the short term[21] Credit Rating and Fiscal Policy - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and interest payment risks, marking a significant shift as all major rating agencies have now rated the US below the highest tier[24] - The House of Representatives has advanced a tax reform bill that could increase the deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, further straining fiscal policy[25] Market Risks - The recent recovery in US equities faces skepticism regarding the sustainability of the dollar's rebound, with global funds yet to systematically adjust their positions in US stocks[26] - Rising interest rates are expected to limit further gains in the stock market, as the current environment pressures non-US markets and commodities[27]

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...

Group 1 - Japan's April exports increased by 2% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of slowdown and the lowest growth rate since October of the previous year [1] - Imports in Japan shrank by 2.2% year-on-year, which was less than the expected decline of 4.5% [1] - Japan's trade deficit narrowed to 115.8 billion yen (approximately 803.1 million USD), lower than the expected 227.1 billion yen, with March's trade deficit recorded at 559.4 billion yen [1] Group 2 - Japan's manufacturing sector is under pressure due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S., particularly a 25% tariff on automotive, steel, and aluminum exports [2] - In 2024, automobiles are projected to account for 28.3% of Japan's total exports to the U.S., making it the largest export category [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs poses a continuous risk to Japan's export-driven economy, potentially leading to further profit pressures for export-oriented companies [2]

Economic Resilience and Recovery - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion[7] - April's consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak domestic demand[8] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating continued price pressure in the industrial sector[11] Trade and Investment Trends - Exports in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate declined by 4.3 percentage points from the previous month; imports fell by 0.2%[14] - The total social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, with RMB loans to the real economy rising by 9.78 trillion yuan[19] - Fixed asset investment from January to April was 147,024 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[30] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 27,730 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing[27] - New housing sales area decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the sales volume is showing signs of stabilization[29] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing slightly decreased, indicating potential for recovery in the real estate market[34] Overall Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience but lacks strong upward momentum, necessitating increased policy support to boost market confidence[3] - Despite challenges, the overall trend for 2025 is expected to be upward, with patience required for recovery[38]

中美关税博弈按下了90天的"暂停键"。5月12日，随着《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，中美大 幅降低双边关税水平，超出了很多人的预期。然而，关税战没有赢家。90天之后，中美双方关税是否加 征、加征多少仍是未知数。 "美国总统特朗普政府的一个显著的特点就是朝令夕改，不确定性。"5月18日，在2025清华五道口全球 金融论坛的一场主题讨论上，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任王一鸣表 示，关税冲击的影响是多方面的。 关税冲击之下，对国际贸易的讨论成了不少论坛的焦点话题之一。5月17日，2025清华五道口全球金融 论坛开幕，在"新形势下的国际贸易与投资"主题讨论中，多位专家、学者和行业代表聚焦全球变局中贸 易与投资的挑战和机遇，探讨如何在复杂多变的国际环境中寻找新的增长点，构建更具韧性的合作框 架。 关税冲击仍在持续 从全球来看，美国与部分国家的关税谈判仍在进行中，美滥施关税的冲击波仍在持续，大家都在观望， 这把国际贸易的"悬顶之剑"会不会落下？怎么落？何时落？会砸到谁？ "当前影响国际贸易和投资最重要的一个事件就是关税问题。"中国进出口银行原董事长、中国国际经济 交流中心副理事长胡晓炼在 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]