Core Insights - The paper industry in A-shares is under pressure, with only 4 out of 16 listed companies reporting positive net profit growth in the first half of 2025, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry [1] - Shandong Sun Paper Industry Co., Ltd. leads the industry with a revenue of 19.113 billion and a net profit of 1.78 billion [1] - The industry is experiencing structural adjustments in capacity expansion, cost optimization, and export growth, but still faces supply-demand pressures and profit differentiation [1] Company Strategies - Sun Paper is implementing a differentiated strategy across raw materials, processes, and products, focusing on self-manufactured pulp to reduce fiber costs and improve production efficiency [1] - The company has achieved cost reductions in energy, raw materials, and maintenance during the reporting period, ensuring stable operational performance [1] - Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co., Ltd. reports steady growth in core business profitability due to lean management practices, optimizing supply chain management, and controlling procurement costs [1] Industry Challenges - The paper industry faces significant cost pressures primarily from raw materials and energy, with uncertainties in their price trends impacting overall industry costs [2] - The financial attributes and price volatility of pulp used in cultural paper, along with rising costs of waste paper for packaging due to weather factors, contribute to these challenges [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate structural adjustments in the industry, with a shift towards high-end and differentiated production necessary for overcoming current market challenges [2] Future Outlook - Sun Paper's "integrated forestry, pulp, and paper" strategy is set to advance with the completion of its Nanning base projects, enhancing operational synergy [2] - The packaging paper market is anticipated to see a slowdown in capacity expansion by 2025, with a need for transformation towards high-end products [2] - The industry is expected to achieve supply-demand balance through market mechanisms, with a potential turning point for paper prices by 2026 as the "anti-involution" policy continues [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for China Jushi (2025 H1) Industry Overview - The glass fiber yarn production in China increased by 4.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, despite approximately 510,000 tons of capacity being offline due to maintenance of magnetic kiln production lines [2][3] - The global glass fiber industry is undergoing consolidation, with major players like OCR and PPG exiting the market, and the closure of the largest glass fiber plant in the UK, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese companies [2][3] Market Demand - Significant growth in various segments: - Wind power installed capacity increased by 18% globally, with China's wind power capacity surging by 98.9% [2][5] - Total automobile production rose by 10.8%, with new energy vehicle production up by 36.2% [2][5] - Retail sales of home appliances grew by 30.7% [2][5] - Infrastructure investment increased by 4.6%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [2][5] Company Performance - The company adopted a "volume + added value" strategy, achieving sales of 1.5822 million tons of yarn and products, a nearly 4% increase [2][6] - Revenue reached 9.109 billion yuan, a 17.7% increase; total profit was 2.119 billion yuan, up 83%; net profit was 1.758 billion yuan, up 78%; and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 170% [2][7] - Operating cash flow was 1.4 billion yuan, with total assets of 53.7 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio below 40% [2][7] Strategic Focus - The company plans to focus on "one increase, one decrease, four enhancements, and one optimization" in H2 2025, emphasizing sales priority, cost reduction, innovation, and strengthening competitive advantages [2][9] - The company anticipates stable to rising glass fiber prices, supported by policies regulating local government investments and a slowdown in new entrants [2][10][11] Competitive Landscape - The company noted that new entrants are slowing down their investments due to poor profitability, indicating a more rational supply environment [2][12] - The gross profit per ton of yarn has recovered to over 900 yuan, with overseas factories showing good profitability and expansion plans [2][13] Financial Management - The company has strengthened investor relations, with major shareholders increasing their stakes by 1.6 billion yuan, and plans to implement a mid-term dividend of 600 million yuan [2][8] - The company aims to enhance its market value management by improving operational performance and engaging with investors [2][22][23] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the future demand for glass fiber, particularly in wind power and automotive sectors, while maintaining a stable supply capacity [2][24] - Plans for expansion in both domestic and international markets are underway, with a focus on high-end electronic fabrics and special products [2][18][21] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is positive, with the company positioned to capitalize on market growth while managing risks associated with competition and pricing strategies. The focus on innovation and efficiency is expected to drive future performance.

Summary of YTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: YTO Express - **Industry**: Express Delivery and Logistics Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, YTO Express achieved a total express delivery volume of **8.084 billion** pieces, a year-on-year increase of **21.84%** [2] - The company reported revenue of **18.823 billion** yuan, up **9.84%** year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of **974 million** yuan [2] - The express delivery business contributed **1.038 billion** yuan to net profit, while air freight and international business losses narrowed to **64 million** yuan [2] Cost and Revenue Metrics - Average revenue per piece decreased by **0.14** yuan to **2.12** yuan, while average cost per piece fell by **0.10** yuan to **1.95** yuan, resulting in a gross profit per piece of **0.17** yuan, down **0.05** yuan [7] - Cost control measures were effective, with significant reductions in collection, delivery, transportation, and operational costs per piece [7] Industry Dynamics - The State Post Bureau's anti-involution initiative is expected to positively impact express companies by stabilizing pricing and improving network stability, particularly in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, which account for nearly **50%** of national business volume [8][9] - The company anticipates that the anti-involution policy will lead to a more stable pricing environment and potentially higher profitability [8] Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration - YTO Express is advancing its AI strategy, applying technologies such as machine vision, voice technology, and digital twins across various operational areas [10] - AI applications have improved cost control, service quality, and customer experience, with a **25%** increase in customer service efficiency due to AI systems [12] - AI-generated code accounted for **24%** of total code produced in the first half of 2025, indicating significant progress in AI programming [12] Capital Expenditure and Future Investments - The company plans to increase capital expenditures for land, transfer center construction, equipment purchases, and vehicle updates to enhance competitiveness and address industry changes [5][27] - YTO Express aims to close the gap with competitors like ZTO Express, which has significantly higher cumulative capital expenditures [27] Market Outlook and Growth Projections - Despite an expected decline in industry growth rates, YTO Express aims to maintain growth above the industry average, driven by effective cost management and service quality improvements [22] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs in the last-mile delivery segment through technology and AI applications [30] Challenges and Risks - The impact of social security policies on operational costs is significant, particularly for smaller express companies, necessitating improved efficiency and resource optimization [5][13] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with ongoing price competition despite the introduction of minimum pricing [28] Strategic Focus - YTO Express is prioritizing AI and digital capabilities as key differentiators in the market, with a focus on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [31] - The company is also exploring international expansion, particularly in Central Asia, while maintaining a cautious approach to the Southeast Asian market [29] Additional Important Insights - The company is leveraging AI to optimize reverse logistics processes, addressing the rising costs associated with increased return rates from e-commerce [25] - The integration of smart delivery systems and self-service lockers is expected to improve last-mile delivery efficiency and reduce labor costs [26][21]

油价下行致炼油产品库存减利，化工行业景气度仍处于低位炼油板块方面，2025Q2，公司原油加工量 为57.84 百万吨，同比-8.8%。 受油价下行影响，导致Q2 公司成品油价等产品价格有所下降，炼油产品库存减利。2025Q2，公司炼油 板块息税前利润为8.88 亿元，环比-62.89%。化工板块方面，2025Q2，化工行业景气度仍处于低位，叠 加芳烃等主要化工品毛利下降，公司化工板块息税前利润为-27.74 亿元，同比增亏22.44 亿元，环比增 亏14.53 亿元。 石化化工行业稳增长、反内卷政策或出台在即，公司有望持续受益工信部总工程师谢少锋在7 月18 日国 新办新闻发布会上表示，石化行业稳增长工作方案即将出台旨在反对内卷式竞争、淘汰落后产能，推动 供给侧优化。当前地炼产能利用率低，石化化工行业老旧装置摸底评估工作陆续展开、政府要求淘汰 200 万吨/年以下的产能装置，部分地炼行业落后产能有望出清。海外巨头的部分化工品装置亏损严 重，逐步关停退出，行业供需或正处于再平衡状态。公司作为全球领先的炼化销一体化龙头，有望持续 受益。 盈利预测与投资评级：受Q2 油价大幅波动影响，我们调整盈利预测，预计2025 ...

因"两新"政策、"反内卷"以及促进民营经济发展壮大的多项政策举措落地见效，工业企业盈利水平出现 积极好转。 国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，7月，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降1.5%，较2025年6月降幅收窄 2.8个百分点。1～7月，工业企业利润累计同比下降1.7%，较1～6月降幅收窄0.1个百分点。 分企业类型看，7月份，规模以上工业中型、小型企业利润分别由6月份下降7.8%、9.7%转为增长 1.8%、0.5%，效益状况改善较为明显。私营企业当月利润增长2.6%，高于全部规模以上工业企业平均 水平4.1个百分点。 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁分析，下阶段，要保持政策连续性、稳定性，增强灵活性、预见性，进 一步扩大国内需求，强化创新驱动，大力培育新质生产力，促进传统行业转型升级，推动工业经济持续 健康发展。 成本下降带动工业利润改善 工业企业营收仍保持增长，为企业盈利恢复创造条件，但增速小幅下行。7月工业企业营收同比增长 1.1%，较上月回落0.5个百分点。PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）同比较上月持平，为-3.6%，规模以上工 业增加值同比较上月回落1.1个百分点。7月，工业企业成本同比增长1.2%，较上月下 ...

当前市场虽呈复苏趋势，但细分板块轮动加快，需避免过度集中于单一赛道（如纯主题炒作类标的），通 过行业分散降低结构性波动风险。 需要说明的是，本报告评分指标基于沪深300指数，其风险收益特征更多反映权重股表现，与中小市值企 业存在差异，投资者在评估整体市场风险时需结合不同板块特征综合判断。 股市潜在风险提示： 债市的中泰资管风险系统评分为66.7分。7月经济数据较为疲软，显示结构性与周期性因素叠加影响，不 宜过度悲观解读。债市资金面保持宽松，权益市场风险偏好上行，机构投资者对下半年降准降息预期有所 截至2025年8月25日，中泰资管风险系统对股债系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为59.65，较上月49.80明显上升，权益评分从中等风险区间向中等偏 高风险区间迈进。本月估值、情绪与市场预期形成共振，整体风险水平呈现"由稳转强"的积极态势。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月59.68，上月55.08），市场整体估值中枢持续上移，各行业估均有所升 高。但具体细分领域分化仍存， 28个申万一级行业中，钢铁、电子、医药生物、房地产、商业、国防军 工、计算机、通信、汽车、机械的行业估值高于历史60 ...

Report Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a three-star rating (★★★) for Iron Ore, Coking Coal, indicating a clear long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity; a white-star rating for Steel, Coke, Manganese Silicon, and Ferrosilicon, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability and a need for observation [1]. Core Views - The steel market faces negative feedback pressure, but with low inventory levels and approaching peak season, the market may stabilize with cost support. Iron ore supply and demand are marginally weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at high levels. Coke and coking coal prices are affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations and have high short-term volatility. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are following market trends, with relatively weak rebound strength [2][3][4]. Summary by Industry Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. Rebar apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot-rolled coil demand and production declined slightly, with inventory also rising. Pig iron production remained high, facing negative feedback pressure, but low inventory limited the downside. With the approaching peak season, construction material demand is expected to pick up, and the market may stabilize [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose today. Global shipments declined from the high but remained stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventory was volatile with no obvious accumulation pressure. Terminal demand improved seasonally, and although steel mill profitability weakened, there was no strong will to cut production. With the approaching parade, there were expectations of policy-driven production cuts. Overall, supply and demand are weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3]. Coke - Coke prices rebounded today. With a major event approaching, coking plants in East China are expected to cut production. Pig iron production remained high, and steelmaking profits were good. After the eighth round of price increases, coking profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Overall inventory increased slightly, and trader purchasing意愿 decreased. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded today. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, and spot auction results weakened. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, while total inventory increased. With the resumption of previously shut-down mines, production-side inventory is likely to increase in the short term. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [6]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Attention is on the shipping of South32's Australian mines. Pig iron production remained above 240, and weekly production of manganese silicon increased. Inventory did not accumulate, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices decreased slightly, but due to pre-event stockpiling, prices are expected to have limited downside [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Pig iron production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply increased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. The market is following the trend of manganese silicon [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 9 月报 宏观 专业研究·创造价值 关税战趋于缓和，内需有所放缓 核心观点 8 月份，特朗普发动的全球关税战短期告一段落。美国与欧洲、 日本达成协议，美国对日本商品以及欧盟商品均征收 15%的关税， 不过协议还附带有日本及欧盟投资美国以及购买美国商品的条款。 8 月 12 日，中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》， 中美就 24%关税继续暂停 90 天达成共识。对美国而言，虽然通胀数 据表现短期可控，但是加征关税令通胀存在长期上行压力。近期美 国就业数据表现脆弱性，加上特朗普政治施压美联储降息，美债收 益率下行，美联储降息预期上升。对欧洲而言，随着通胀趋缓，欧 洲央行宽松政策有所放缓。不过考虑到关税对欧洲出口需求的冲击 仍存以及未来欧盟在基础设施与国防领域的财政支出将有所扩张， 因此后市欧洲央行仍存降息可能性。对日本而言，近期日本通胀指 标回落较快，考虑到关税冲击日本出口，日本央行加息节奏放缓。 不过日本国债收益率持续上升，随着关税问题逐步落地，未来日本 加息节奏有望延续。 7 月以来国内宏观经济指标边际走弱。7 月制造业 PMI 有 ...

专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 动力煤月报 姓名：涂伟华 强现实弱预期，动力煤涨势放缓 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 核心观点 8 月，国内煤价延续强势运行，截至 8 月 19 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力 煤报价突破 700 元关口，月内累计上涨 48 元/吨。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以 勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地 出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地 反映了本人的研究观点。本人不 会因本报告中的具体推荐意见 或观点而直接或间接接收到任 何形式的报酬。 动力煤 |月报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 供应端，7 月全国原煤产量 3.8 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%；其中山西 7 月 产量 1.07 亿吨，同比下降 5.3%；内蒙 7 月产量 1.00 亿吨，同比下降 4.2%； 新疆 7 月产量 0.37 亿吨，同比下降 13.8%。进口方面，7 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 热点品种 期市综述 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 截止 8 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，苹果涨超 2%，铁矿石、玉米、 线材、BR 橡胶涨超 1%；跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超 3%，碳酸锂、鸡蛋跌超 2%，对 二甲苯、生猪、油菜籽、短纤、PTA、棕榈油跌超 1%。沪深 300 ...