Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 1, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The prices of domestic and international fuel oils have continued to fluctuate widely recently, and the short-term market has entered a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. High-sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to remain high, while low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support at the bottom and are unlikely to weaken significantly in the short term. [4] - The recommended trading strategies are: 1) Unilateral trading: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment in the short term, and there may be further upside potential. 2) Inter-period trading: The inter-period spreads of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. 3) Inter-variety trading: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly in the short term, and the LU-FU spread will continue to shrink in the short term. [4] - The estimated price ranges for FU and LU are 2850 - 2950 and 3200 - 3400, respectively. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - The number of global CDU maintenance units has increased slightly. Although the exports from the Middle East have continued to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and the imports in the Singapore market have not increased significantly for the time being. [4] - Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, global refinery maintenance, and domestic refinery fuel oil production and commercial volumes are presented in the form of charts. [6][13][15] Demand - Data on domestic and international fuel oil demand, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, are presented in the form of charts. [17][18] Inventory - Data on global fuel oil spot inventories, including the heavy oil inventories in Singapore, the fuel oil inventories in the European ARA region, the heavy distillate inventories in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventories in the United States, are presented in the form of charts. [20][21][22] Price and Spread - Data on the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, and the United States, as well as the prices of paper and derivatives, are presented in the form of charts. [26][31][32] - Data on fuel oil spot spreads, global fuel oil crack spreads, and global fuel oil paper monthly spreads are presented in the form of charts. [41][42][47] Import and Export - Data on domestic fuel oil import and export, as well as global high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil import and export, are presented in the form of charts. [50][54][57] Futures Market Indicators and Inter-Region Spreads - The prices of Asia-Pacific fuel oil in the week increased significantly, and the trend in the Zhoushan market was in sync. The inter-region spreads of high-sulfur fuel oil narrowed, while those of LU widened. [63] - Data on the inter-region spreads in the spot market, as well as the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts of FU and LU, are presented in the form of charts. [66][73][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 7.81%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 11%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1859.31, down 94.88 points from last week, a 4.9% month - on - month decline [6][37]. - The full - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. Geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather in Northwest Europe have also short - term boosted freight rates [6][37]. - In December, China's foreign trade rebounded beyond expectations. Exports are the core driving force of China's economy, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][37]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk's price reduction pressure has slightly improved, but other shipping companies continue the pre - festival trend of reducing prices to attract cargo [6][37]. - The decline in eurozone inflation provides conditions for policy wait - and - see, but leading indicators such as PMI are still near historical lows, indicating a fragile recovery foundation [6][37]. - Overall, the slight price increase by multiple shipping companies at the current price end boosts futures prices, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose significantly this week. The EC2604 contract's trading volume and open interest both decreased [13][15]. - The table shows the week - on - week changes and closing prices of different futures contracts and the spot index [10]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week suspension of air strikes on Ukraine, and plans to announce the nomination of the next Fed chair next week. The US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace [18]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement, with significant tariff cuts on both sides [18]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Unemployment has shown signs of stabilizing, and inflation remains relatively high [18]. - China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership and tariff cuts on whisky [18]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week [24]. - The export container freight rate index fluctuated slightly this week [27]. - Global container capacity continued to grow, and European Line capacity rebounded slightly. BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [30]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [33]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, including the price trends of futures and spot, the impact of policies, and suggestions for investors [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, as infrastructure projects gradually resume work and demand picks up, against the background of low asphalt inventory, low - cost raw material inventory will be gradually digested, and the transaction price of new raw materials with a premium will rise. The market may experience a resonance of tight supply and warming demand, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips in the unilateral market, and to wait and see on arbitrage and options [6][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Introduction and Market Overview - **Market Review**: In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs. There were also independent contradictions such as the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and rising costs. On January 3, the situation in Venezuela developed into a conflict. On the 5th, the asphalt futures opened higher and then declined. In mid - January, the Iran conflict escalated, driving up crude oil costs, and asphalt prices oscillated at a high level. The shortage of raw materials was priced in, and the overall cost of raw material premiums increased. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices [5][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil is in a wide - range oscillation. The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, demand will pick up, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [7][40]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs and had independent contradictions. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices. At the beginning of the year, it was the seasonal off - season for demand. In the north, demand was basically stagnant due to low temperatures, while in the south, there was some rush - work demand, which was gradually weakening. It was expected that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventory could last for 1 - 2 months, and the raw material premium was rising [10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - In 2026, the estimated asphalt production in January - February was about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+4%). Different refineries had different production changes. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in February was about 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. Although the Spring Festival and raw material supply would limit production, some refineries' production resumption and stable raw material supply would support the overall production [14]. - In 2025, the total domestic asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). The total import was 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) compared with 2024 [15][18]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - In January 2026, domestic asphalt demand was in the seasonal off - season, with a slight month - on - month decline and obvious regional differentiation. In the south, rush - work demand supported the market, while in the north, demand was mainly for winter storage. In February, demand would further decline. Refinery shipments were at a medium level, and terminal demand decreased. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and the utilization rates of relevant capacities also declined [26][27][28]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - In January 2026, the total asphalt inventory was at an extremely low level compared with the same period. The total inventory decreased by 60,000 tons (-4%) month - on - month to about 1.28 million tons and decreased by 720,000 tons (-36%) year - on - year. Social inventory gradually accumulated, and refinery inventory remained low. The cost increased due to geopolitical conflicts, the raw material premium rose, and the asphalt processing profit decreased significantly. The basis also changed in different regions [31][33]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Raw Materials**: Geopolitical turmoil continued, and crude oil costs oscillated widely. The expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply was basically priced in, and the near - term cost premium increased. There was no short - term concern about supply shortages [40]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips due to the possible resonance of tight supply and warming demand [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [40].

Core Viewpoint - The metal market in January 2026 is characterized by significant volatility, particularly in copper prices, driven by macroeconomic policies, geopolitical conflicts, and industrial transformations [1][2]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices experienced extreme fluctuations, starting with a high opening at 108,280 yuan/ton before a sharp decline due to profit-taking by bulls [2]. - Three main factors driving the surge in copper prices include: 1. Macroeconomic conditions with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and the dollar dropping below 96, creating expectations for looser monetary policy [2]. 2. Supply constraints from major producers like Glencore and Antofagasta, with anticipated declines in copper output by 2025 [2]. 3. Increased demand from emerging sectors such as AI and photovoltaics, although actual market transactions remain weak due to high prices and pre-holiday inventory management [3]. Group 2: Other Metals Overview - Aluminum prices surged due to speculative trading but are expected to enter a correction phase as demand weakens ahead of the holiday season, despite low inventory levels providing some support [5]. - Zinc prices are influenced by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, but the supply-demand balance is weak, with excess refining capacity and subdued downstream consumption [6]. - Lead prices are under pressure from macroeconomic factors and weak demand, with a potential for further declines as pre-holiday stockpiling ends [7]. - Nickel prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand slowdown, although long-term support exists from supply constraints in Indonesia [8]. - Tin prices have shown volatility but are supported by long-term demand growth in sectors like AI and electric vehicles, despite short-term production slowdowns [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry is "Cautiously Bearish" [3] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, providing corresponding investment strategies and price ranges for reference [1][2][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term rebound, but long - term downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalance [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East lead to short - term price increases, but the supply surplus pattern remains and the demand enters the off - season. The key variables are the change in US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1][7] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term rebound, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [455 - 465] [9] 3.2 LPG - **Core View**: Rebound driven by cost, but long - term downward pressure [1][12] - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. In the short term, the price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but in the long term, it is under pressure. The supply remains stable, while the downstream chemical demand weakens and the inventory accumulates [12] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price has room for compression. Short - term uncertainty in cost and bearish fundamentals. PG focus range: [4250 - 4350] [13] 3.3 L - **Core View**: Stronger trend driven by cost support [14][17] - **Main Logic**: Short - term strong expectations dominate the market, following the cost to continue the strong oscillation. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a low level in the same period, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories have no prominent contradictions. The production is expected to increase next week, and the basis has weakened. Pay attention to the verification of future demand [17] - **Strategy**: L focus range: [7000 - 7200] [17] 3.4 PP - **Core View**: Continued upward trend supported by cost [18][21] - **Main Logic**: The increase in February CP price and the strength of oil price provide strong cost support, but the spot price lags behind, and the basis weakens slightly. The current supply - demand is weak, and the supply pressure is relieved. The low PDH profit intensifies the maintenance expectation. Pay attention to the verification of future demand [21] - **Strategy**: PP focus range: [6800 - 7000] [21] 3.5 PVC - **Core View**: High inventory restricts the rebound space [22][25] - **Main Logic**: The social inventory reaches a new high, and the basis weakens slightly. The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops continuously, and the marginal cost support improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: V focus range: [4900 - 5100] [25] 3.6 PTA - **Core View**: Bullish outlook, hold long positions [26][28] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is at a relatively high level in the past three months. The supply - side maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost - side PX is in a weak balance. There is a slight inventory accumulation in January - February, but the overall expectation is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. TA05 focus range: [5330 - 5520] [28] 3.7 MEG - **Core View**: Cautious about chasing up due to supply - side disturbances [29][31] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic supply load increases, and the overseas devices have shutdowns and maintenance. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the port inventory accumulates. The short - term valuation is repaired [30] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3920 - 4030] [31] 3.8 Methanol - **Core View**: Weak reality vs. strong expectation, geopolitical conflicts accelerate the price increase [32][34] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The domestic production load declines, and the overseas production load slightly increases. The import volume in January is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the supply pressure exists. The demand weakens slightly, and the cost support is weak and stable [34] - **Strategy**: The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. MA05 focus range: [2340 - 2400] [36] 3.9 Urea - **Core View**: Short - term rebound supported by cost and supply - demand [37][40] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the overall production load continues to rise. The demand is strong in the short term, and the winter storage is progressing steadily. The export of urea and fertilizers is relatively good, but the downstream demand enters the off - season, and the support is expected to weaken [38] - **Strategy**: Supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand enters the off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 focus range: [1790 - 1820] [40] 3.10 LNG - **Core View**: The impact of the cold wave weakens, and the US gas price declines [41][44] - **Main Logic**: The short - term sharp rise in the US natural gas price due to the cold wave has been priced in, and the impact is gradually fading. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of the gas price is limited [44] - **Strategy**: In the winter, the demand for heating supports the gas price, but the supply is relatively sufficient. NG focus range: [3.655 - 4.080] [45] 3.11 Asphalt - **Core View**: High valuation, short - term callback risk [46][49] - **Main Logic**: The raw material of asphalt is favorable in the short term, but the basis is weak. The supply in February decreases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory increases [49] - **Strategy**: The valuation is returning to normal, and the supply uncertainty increases. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. BU focus range: [3350 - 3450] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Core View**: Weak supply - demand, range - bound oscillation [51][54] - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory decreases slightly at a high level. The demand is in the off - season, and the daily melting volume is high. It is necessary to reduce the supply to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold repair is further realized [54] - **Strategy**: FG focus range: [1050 - 1100] [54] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Core View**: The factory inventory increases slightly, and the market is in a bearish consolidation [55][58] - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory turns from decline to increase, and the basis strengthens slightly. The real - estate demand is weak, and the demand for heavy soda is insufficient. The new production capacity is put into operation, and the supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing up before the maintenance is further intensified [58] - **Strategy**: SA focus range: [1200 - 1250] [58]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant rise, supported by geopolitical tensions, monetary easing, and a global trend towards de-dollarization, with the current market dynamics favoring gold as a strategic asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the gold ETF (518800) rose by 5.49% [1]. - London gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, while silver prices briefly surpassed $120 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% with a 10:2 voting ratio, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - Despite the Fed's decision supporting the dollar, there are concerns regarding the potential risks to the Fed's independence and the clarity of its interest rate policy [2]. Group 3: Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Key drivers for gold prices include ongoing geopolitical conflicts (e.g., tensions in Iran, Greenland sovereignty disputes, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict), which enhance gold's safe-haven premium [3]. - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold and the acceleration of de-dollarization processes provide structural support for gold prices [3]. - From a supply-demand perspective, global gold reserves are projected to last until 2032 at current extraction rates, with resource-exporting countries tightening mineral export restrictions, increasing gold's strategic value [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand - The demand for industrial gold is expected to grow due to advancements in AI and high-tech industries, while the photovoltaic sector's increased silver consumption strengthens the correlation between gold and silver [3]. Group 5: Market Indicators - The current RSI indicator for international spot gold is at a high level, and the volatility index has reached a near ten-year peak, indicating potential short-term market correction pressures [3]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor the gold ETF (518800) for suitable investment opportunities [3].

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose to 102,430 CNY, while London copper fluctuated around 13,112 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and Powell's statements cooling rate cut expectations, alongside escalating tensions in Iran creating risk-averse sentiment [5][17] - The inventory of copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,130 tons to 148,000 tons, while LME copper stocks rose by 1,575 tons to 173,900 tons, indicating a negative feedback on demand due to high prices [5][17] - Despite downstream purchasing at lower prices, the pressure on spot prices remains, and the market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with a reference range of 99,800 - 103,000 CNY per ton for the main copper futures [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term due to tight policy expectations [6][18] - The supply of nickel from the Philippines is hindered by weather conditions, while Indonesian wet method nickel is relatively abundant, but the supply of fire method nickel is tight [6][18] - The operational range for nickel futures is set at 140,000 - 160,000 CNY per ton, and for stainless steel at 14,000 - 15,500 CNY per ton [6][18] Group 3: Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon market is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with some companies lowering prices and downstream purchasing intentions remaining low due to demand being pulled forward [19] - The silicon industry association forecasts a 15% quarter-on-quarter decrease in polysilicon production for January, with further reductions expected in February to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [19] Group 4: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market saw a slight rebound in alumina prices, with current supply reductions expected to support short-term price increases [20][21] - A major alumina producer in Guizhou has reduced production, leading to a tighter supply in the Southwest region, while logistics are expected to tighten as the Spring Festival approaches [20][21] - The operational range for aluminum futures is set at 24,800 - 26,000 CNY per ton, with a recommendation to hold existing long positions [21] Group 5: Zinc and Lead Markets - Zinc prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the macroeconomic environment being mixed following the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts [23] - Supply-side issues are noted, with production expected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to maintenance and natural days off in February [23] - The operational range for zinc futures is set at 24,500 - 26,000 CNY per ton, while lead futures are expected to operate within 16,800 - 17,800 CNY per ton [23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in resource prices, including gold reaching a historical high of $5,417 and oil prices hitting a four-month peak, reflects a complex interplay of market sentiments driven by credit anxiety, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand imbalances in industrial metals [1][4][5][6]. Group 1: Credit Anxiety - The primary driver of gold's price increase is deep-seated anxiety regarding the credibility of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping over 10% this year, marking its worst start in nearly 40 years [4]. - Gold is viewed as a "safe haven" asset, gaining traction as a response to concerns over "de-dollarization" and the US fiscal deficit, making its price rise a reflection of confidence in currency rather than a simple commodity bull market [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Oil prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical conflicts, which inject a significant "risk premium" into oil prices, leading to rapid and volatile price movements influenced by news headlines and political statements [5]. - The volatility in oil prices poses challenges for investors, requiring acute short-term awareness and discipline in trading strategies [5]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalances - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing significant supply shortages, with a projected copper deficit of 330,000 tons next year due to unexpected production halts and increasing demand from AI data centers and global energy transitions [6]. - The transformation of aluminum from a traditional construction metal to a key component in new energy and technology sectors underscores the long-term growth potential in industrial metals, driven by real supply-demand dynamics rather than market sentiment [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to differentiate asset types: gold serves as a long-term hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, oil trading requires short-term tactical approaches, and investments in industrial metals should focus on long-term trends driven by technological advancements [7]. - The strategy of "buying on divergence and selling on consensus" is emphasized, suggesting that true investment opportunities often arise during periods of market cooling and divergence in sentiment [8]. - Investors should assess their portfolio's resilience to potential volatility in resource sectors, ensuring a balanced approach that includes both offensive and defensive positions [8].

美联储降息：打开黄金上涨的"水龙头" 2025年至今，美联储已连续三次降息，每次25个基点的操作向市场注入了天量流动性。更关键的是，美联储同步启动短端国债购买计划，相当于直接向金融 体系"撒钱"。虽然2026年初降息节奏略有放缓，但市场普遍预期，只要下半年美国通胀数据回落，更猛烈的降息浪潮将接踵而至。 当全球投资者还在为比特币闪崩心惊肉跳时，黄金市场正上演更疯狂的戏码。2026年1月28日，现货黄金价格单日暴涨1.35%，强势突破5300美元/盎司关 口，白银同步飙升至106美元/盎司，贵金属市场全面进入亢奋状态。这场史诗级暴涨背后，是美联储降息、地缘冲突与美元信用危机三股力量的共振。 美元危机：全球"去美元化"加速黄金登基 深层驱动这场黄金牛市的，是美元信用体系的动摇。2025年一个标志性事件是：全球央行持有的黄金储备首次超越海外美债，成为世界第一大储备资产。中 国、印度等国央行连续18个月增持黄金，波兰甚至动用军机运输金条回国。 这种货币政策转向带来两个直接影响：一是美元实际利率持续走低，持有黄金的机会成本大幅下降；二是市场对美元贬值的担忧加剧，投资者疯狂寻找"抗 通胀硬通货"。高盛最新报告指出，每降息2 ...