投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-25 地缘冲突缓和，⿊⾊偏弱震荡 伊以局势缓和，受此影响双焦再度转弱。除此之外⿊⾊板块处于真空 期，能交易的其他驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节 性下⾏。供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，整体供需均环⽐⾛强，库存暂⽆压 ⼒。不过市场对后市需求预期依然偏悲观，整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震 荡盘整阶段。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素方面，近期主产区环保及安全检查趋严，煤矿间歇式停产 现象较多，焦煤产量持续下滑，但整体供应的收缩幅度相对有限； 进口方面，贸易商拉运积极性偏弱，口岸通关延续低位。需求端， 焦炭产量高位回落，焦企在去库及亏损压力下、开工存在进一步下降 预期。库存端，焦煤刚需有所下滑、下游原料补库需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

Group 1: Market Performance - The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 0.21%, -0.15%, and 0.02% respectively, while the NASDAQ China Technology Index fell 1.26% and the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.52% from 20250616 - 20250622 [2] - Most A - share sectors declined, with the banking sector leading the gain. The wind All - A Index changed - 1.07%, and among 30 CITIC industries, only 4 rose and 26 fell, with the banking sector having a weekly gain of over 3% [3] - Interest - rate bond prices rose slightly and the yield curve shifted downward. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell 0.44 BP to 1.6396% [4] - The US Treasury bond yield decreased and the curve shifted downward. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield dropped 3 BP to 4.38% as of June 20, 2025 [7] - The US dollar appreciated and the gold price fell. The US dollar index increased 0.63%, and the London gold spot price dropped 1.95% to $3,368.25 per ounce [8][9] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Policy - The capital price was divided, and the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan from 20250616 - 20250622 [5] - The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume rising from 7.95 trillion yuan on June 13 to 8.32 trillion yuan on June 20, 2025 [6] - The Fed's June FOMC meeting did not cut interest rates, maintaining the rate in the 4.25 - 4.50% range. The median forecast for the 2025 interest rate is 3.9%, equivalent to two rate cuts [10] - The loose monetary policy at the Lujiazui Forum did not materialize. The central bank governor announced eight financial opening - up measures but no specific monetary policy operations [11] Group 3: Geopolitical Situation - The conflict between Israel and Iran may continue, which could affect the improvement of market risk preference [12] - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025. The conflict may be limitedly escalated, and its duration may be extended [13][14] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report is optimistic about the oil and gas and banking sectors in A - shares, as well as opportunities in the bond market and gold. A - shares are at a relatively high level in the shock range, and the yield of domestic interest - rate bonds has limited decline [15][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on military materials and suggests focusing on core assets in the military materials sector due to irreversible trends in conflicts [11][12] - The report indicates that the wind power industry is expected to maintain high growth due to government subsidies, with an anticipated new installation capacity of 105-115 GW in 2025 [8][9] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,420.57, up by 1.15% [4] - The new materials sector experienced a decline, with the new materials index down by 1.18%, while the semiconductor materials and electronic chemicals showed slight variations [8] Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rates, reflecting concerns over tariffs' impact on inflation, with core PCE inflation expectations raised from 2.8% to 3.1% for 2025 [6][7] - Employment data in the U.S. remains weak, with initial jobless claims showing a slight decline but still at high levels, indicating a cooling economy [6] Industry Commentary - The chemical raw materials sector is influenced by government policies, particularly in renewable energy, which is expected to drive the wind power industry forward [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of military materials in light of increasing global military expenditures, projected to rise by 9.4% in 2024, the highest growth rate since 1993 [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haohua Technology and Tongyi Zhong, which are positioned to benefit from increased military spending and have strong competitive advantages in their respective fields [11][12] - It also recommends monitoring products imported from Iran and Israel, which may face supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that crude oil futures continue to decline, with SC crude oil dropping over 8% [1] - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, crude oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamental pricing [1] - In the short term, geopolitical tensions may still persist, leading to a volatile oil price environment [1]

Market Performance - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets performed strongly last week, with energy, technology, and defensive sectors showing varied performance across different markets [1] - The MSCI Global index decreased by 0.3%, with MSCI Developed down by 0.3% and MSCI Emerging remaining flat [1] - International crude oil prices continued to rise, while the German 10Y government bond yield saw the largest increase [1] Trading Sentiment - Global stock market trading volume showed divergence, with increased trading volume in European and American markets, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw a decrease in trading volume [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, reaching historically high levels, while sentiment in the US also rose to historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and Japanese markets, while European market volatility increased [1] Earnings Expectations - Global stock market earnings expectations were mostly revised downwards last week, with European stocks showing the best marginal change [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised down from 2234 to 2231 for 2025 [2] - The EPS forecast for the Eurozone STOXX50 index was revised up from 345 to 346 for 2025 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations showed mixed changes globally, with the US economy showing signs of weakness and European economic trends improving [2] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US fell significantly, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and trade negotiation challenges [2] - The Economic Surprise Index for Europe increased slightly due to strong economic data and progress in trade negotiations [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity showed marginal improvement last week, with central banks in the US, Japan, and the UK maintaining interest rates, while Switzerland and Norway cut rates by 25 basis points [3] - The futures market implied a market expectation of 2.1 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [3] - Capital primarily flowed into the US, China, and Japan, with continued inflows into Hong Kong [3]

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策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. ICE US cotton rose 1.29% to 67.56 cents/pound on Monday, while CF509 fell 0.3% to 13,465 yuan/ton. Macro - level disturbances persist internationally, and the domestic market is affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The current low inventory of domestic old cotton supports prices, but demand - side drivers are weak, and new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The overall cotton demand remains but is difficult to improve significantly [1] - The sugar market is also expected to continue its oscillatory trend. Pakistan's decision to import 750,000 tons of sugar has pushed up domestic sugar prices. International regional conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have boosted raw sugar prices. The short - term fundamentals lack news guidance, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and the basis are currently strong supports for the futures price [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by geopolitical news and the movement of the US dollar index, while the domestic market is influenced by crude oil prices. The low inventory of old cotton supports prices, but demand is weak, and new cotton is expected to be abundant. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [1] - **Sugar**: Pakistan's import decision has affected domestic prices. International conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have an impact on raw sugar. The short - term fundamentals lack news, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and basis support the futures price [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 35, down 15; the main basis is 1429, up 45. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,780 yuan/ton, up 16, and the national spot price is 14,894 yuan/ton, up 15 [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 144, up 10; the main basis is 334, down 1. The Nanning spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,493, down 39 from the previous trading day, with 300 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.2 to 53.4, and the yarn comprehensive inventory increased by 0.6 to 27.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 49.1, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 33.1 [3] - **Sugar**: On June 23, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou price was 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis, contract spreads, the difference between domestic and foreign prices under a 1% tariff quota, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [6][8][9] - **Sugar**: The report includes charts on the closing price of the main sugar contract, the basis, contract spreads, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17] 5. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda - ash glass, and cotton, respectively. They have rich experience and many honors in the industry [19][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].