Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, increasing by 24.5% in just over a month, is attributed to inflation and geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Price Movement - Gold prices have risen from $1,200 per ounce in 2019 to $3,500 in April 2023, and further increased from $3,300 to $4,150 in August 2023 [1][3][17]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors driving the recent gold price increase include: 1. Inflation concerns, as gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation [3]. 2. Geopolitical instability and financial uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safety in gold [3][5]. - Three key reasons for the surge in gold prices over the past year are: 1. A loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar, with expectations of long-term depreciation [3]. 2. Deteriorating international geopolitical conditions, raising fears of potential conflicts [3]. 3. Concerns over a possible global financial crisis [3]. Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that significant bull markets in gold often precede financial crises, with notable price increases observed before the 1974 and 2008 financial crises [10][18]. - The current gold price trajectory resembles the pre-crisis conditions seen in 2008, suggesting a potential for volatility [21][22]. Investment Strategy - The analysis suggests that investors may benefit from waiting for a potential financial crisis to buy gold at lower prices, as historical trends indicate that gold prices may drop significantly during such events [24][26]. - The recommendation is to avoid chasing high prices and consider accumulating gold during market corrections [24][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: Amid Sino - US trade frictions, market risk preferences may be suppressed in the short - term, but the long - term upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The bond market is affected by the strong stock market, and gold and silver maintain their strength due to geopolitical and policy factors [2]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, the shipping index is short - term strong, while steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors, and most chemical products are under downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Equity Index** - **Trend**: Sino - US trade frictions lead to short - term fluctuations in the stock index, which is expected to fall first and then rebound. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. The export chain is warming up, and the index rebounds with shrinking volume [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2]. **Treasury Bonds** - **Trend**: The 10 - year Treasury bond has different values at different interest rate levels. The short - term bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within the range, and the T2512 fluctuation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3 [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Trend**: Gold remains strong before the geopolitical conflict eases and the US policy situation becomes clear. Silver also maintains its strength due to slow overseas EFP conversion progress [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in gold and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Keep a long - buying idea for silver above 11000 yuan [2]. **Shipping Index (EC - European Line)** - **Trend**: The short - term trend is strong and fluctuating [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously go long [2]. **Steel** - **Trend**: Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the steel market is converging [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the month - spread should be short - sold at high prices. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is converging [2]. **Iron Ore** - **Trend**: Supply - side disturbances are weakening, and the market is turning weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the range is between 750 - 800. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Trend**: After the holiday, the coal price in the producing areas is weak, and the downstream replenishment demand is weakening. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the holiday, but further increases are difficult [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1080 - 1200. Go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1550 - 1700. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Trend**: Copper prices fluctuate, alumina cost support is loosening, aluminum and its alloys maintain high - level oscillations, zinc prices have limited support, tin prices are weak, nickel prices oscillate, and stainless steel demand is insufficient [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For copper, pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000. For other metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their trends, such as waiting for buying opportunities for tin [2]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Trend**: Oil prices are under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and pessimistic IEA reports. Most chemical products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given for each product, such as short - selling at high prices, holding short positions, and conducting arbitrage operations [2]. **Agricultural Products** - **Trend**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar, cotton, and eggs are weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding 3 - 7 reverse spreads for live pigs [2]. **Special and New Energy Commodities** - **Trend**: Glass production and sales are average, rubber is affected by the peak production season, industrial silicon prices are weak, polysilicon prices are rising, and lithium carbonate maintains oscillations [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding long positions for polysilicon [2].

10月14日，现货黄金首次站上4140美元/盎司。 回顾十月以来的金价历程可以看到，10月以来，黄金价格延续了9月的上涨态势。10月1日现货黄金的收盘价格为3865.41美元/盎司，截至10月14日10时53 分，记者通过wind查询伦敦现货黄金价格为4145.94美元/盎司，日涨幅接近0.9%，十月以来涨幅已超过7%。 | 10:54 | e | (1) 1) 11 100 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | < w Q | 伦敦金现 | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4145.941 昨结 4109.430 开盘 4110.420 | | | | | +36.511 +0.89% 总量(kq) | | 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 4149.890 | 持 仓 | 0 外 盘 | 0 | | 最低价 4106.365 | 增 仓 | 0 内 盘 | 0 | 黄金持续攀升 近期，国际金价持续上行引发市场广泛关注，其未来走势究竟如何？多家机构及市场数据给出了不同维度的分析与呈现。 中信证券研究在其发布的《政治视角下的欧洲财政困境与黄金价值》一文中 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced significant fluctuations during the current pricing cycle, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production expectations, leading to a decrease in domestic refined oil prices for the eighth time this year [1] - From October 13, 2025, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 0.06 yuan per liter, resulting in savings of approximately 3 yuan for consumers filling a small car's 50L tank [1] - The reference crude oil price change rate was -1.81% as of October 10, 2025, indicating a downward trend in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and trade issues [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the market sentiment has turned cautious, with expectations of further declines in oil prices due to the diminishing geopolitical premium and renewed concerns over trade tariffs [2] - The new pricing cycle is expected to start with a negative crude oil change rate, predicting a reduction in retail fuel prices by approximately 260 yuan per ton, with the adjustment window set for October 27, 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The fuel oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 2744.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.50% [1] - Russian energy facilities have been recovering from attacks, with major refineries returning to operation, which may influence supply dynamics [1] - High sulfur crude oil exports from the Middle East are rebounding slightly, although Iranian exports remain restricted [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical conflicts and doubts about OPEC+'s actual production capacity are providing short-term support for oil prices, which in turn affects downstream chemical products [2] - Domestic fuel oil supply is increasing due to the resumption of operations in Shandong and East China, but weak demand in the shipping market is suppressing purchasing enthusiasm [2] - The diesel crack spread has significantly dropped due to increased diesel imports in Europe, which may weaken support for low sulfur fuel oil [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions that enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of October 9, 2025, international gold prices show a mixed trend, with New York gold futures at $4045.7 per ounce, down 0.61%, while London gold rose 0.44% to $4029.17 per ounce. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold T+D surged 4.79% to 911.5 yuan per gram [1]. - The domestic gold jewelry prices from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have exceeded 1160 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.69% increase [1]. Driving Factors - Short-term upward momentum is attributed to three main factors: a high probability (87.7%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, increased holdings in the SPDR gold ETF reaching a three-year high of 1018 tons, and seasonal demand in China due to weddings and festivals [2][3]. - The recent rise in gold prices is also linked to a significant increase in investment demand, with global gold bar and coin investment up 11% in Q2, while jewelry consumption fell by 14% [6][7]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally continue to increase gold reserves, with a net purchase of 166 tons in Q2 2025, despite a 21% year-on-year decrease. This trend indicates a sustained demand for gold as a strategic asset [5][6]. - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to maintain gold's appeal, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months [5][6]. Investment Strategy - For short-term investors, caution is advised against chasing high prices, as the market shows signs of being overbought. Key support levels to watch include $4000 for international gold and 900 yuan per gram for domestic gold T+D [2][3]. - Long-term investors are encouraged to maintain a strategic allocation to gold, particularly if prices retreat to the $3800-$3900 range for international gold or below 880 yuan per gram for domestic gold T+D, using a pyramid strategy for accumulation [3][6]. Price Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices marks a shift from a single-factor influence to a multi-faceted driving force, with gold now serving as a hedge against currency risk and macroeconomic instability [4][6]. - The correlation between domestic and international gold prices remains strong, but domestic jewelry prices are significantly higher due to factors such as import taxes and seasonal demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged, reaching a historic high of $4005.88 per ounce, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On October 8, the London spot gold price hit a record high of $4005.88 per ounce, marking the first time it has crossed the $4000 threshold [1] - The New York gold futures price had previously closed above the $4000 mark [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The surge in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. federal government shutdown and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt, which present both short-term and long-term risks [1] - There is an increasing market expectation for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in various regions around the world are also contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged, with London spot gold reaching an all-time high of $4005.88 per ounce, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On the 8th, international gold prices continued to rise in the Asian trading session, following New York gold futures closing above the $4000 mark [1] - London spot gold prices hit a historic high of $4005.88 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in the gold market [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The increase in gold prices is attributed to short-term and long-term risks, including the U.S. federal government shutdown and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [1] - Market expectations for multiple future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also contributed to the rising gold prices [1] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in various regions around the world are further driving the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching an all-time high of $4000.1 per ounce on October 7, driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally [1] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with brands such as Chow Sang Sang reaching 1157 RMB per gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1155 RMB per gram, and Lao Miao Gold at 1151 RMB per gram [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300 [3] - It is anticipated that central banks will have average net purchases of gold of 80 tons and 70 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as emerging market central banks may continue to diversify their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high, touching $4000.1 per ounce for the first time, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 7, gold prices continued to rise, with a peak of $4000 per ounce during the Asian trading session [1] - As of 8:33 AM Beijing time on October 7, December gold futures were reported at $3999.9 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 0.59% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The ongoing U.S. federal government "shutdown" crisis has contributed to increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - There is a growing market expectation for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further driving demand for gold [1] - Continued geopolitical conflicts in various regions around the world are also influencing investors to seek refuge in gold [1]