二、同金不同价 深圳金价相对更低，核心原因在于其背靠全国重要黄金集散地，罗湖水贝，当地黄金加工工厂与批发摊位高度集中，供给充足、竞争充分，终端零售更容易 压低利润空间，因此同类产品价格更具优势。 海口主要依赖外地调货，物流与渠道成本更高，旅游消费需求旺盛，金饰作为"礼品与纪念品"的购买占比更高，商家提价空间更大，导致同一纯度金饰的零 售价长期偏高。 国内品牌金饰克价普遍突破1400元，铂、钯等贵金属亦全线飙升，引发国内交易所连续出台风险管控措施，市场分析认为，通胀放缓强化降息预期、地缘风 险及央行购金是主要推动力，高盛更预测金价2026年或达4900美元。 一、金店价格下调，海口与深圳价差显著 近期国内金店零售金价出现明显回落，引发消费者关注，以海南海口与广东深圳为例，同为千足金，两地标价相差约17元/克。 若购买30克金饰，仅地区差异就可能形成500元以上的价差，价格下行的背景之一，是国际金价走弱带动国内市场同步调整，上海黄金交易所报价也出现下 跌，部分城市门店随之降价。 除金价本身外，加工费（工费）差异往往更显著，即便同为千足金，不同地区、不同工艺（如硬金）加价可能相差数倍：有消费者反馈，深圳硬金的工费加 ...

作者|哥吉拉 数据支持| 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 12月26日，在海外市场因节日休市的背景下，中国商品市场迎来年内最壮观的一幕。 还有沪铜主力也出现加速疯涨，盘中最高冲至99730元/吨，离10万元大关仅一步之遥，最终收涨3.60%报98720元/吨。 碳酸锂主力合约也暴涨了8.12%，最高触及131000元/吨，创下2023年11月以来的新高。 股市方面，得益于期货多个有色品种的集体飙升，今日贵金属以及锌、铜、铅、钴、镍等工业金属及其细分概念几乎霸榜A股涨幅榜，并吸引主力资金大规 模的净流入。 | 名称 | | 米幅961 | 年初至今 | 二力净额 | 5日涨幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 海南自贸区 | +4.32% | +45.73% | +15.84Z | 12.58 | 439.61亿 | | 2 | 金属锌 | +3.61% | +87.29% | +7.63亿 | 5.12 | 394.41亿 | | 3 | | +3.30% | +85.29% | +7.88亿 | 4.63 | 385 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold, silver, and palladium are rated with one star (★☆☆), indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but with limited operability in the market [1]. Core Viewpoints - After the Christmas holiday, the international precious metals market continued its strong performance. The international gold price reached a new all - time high, and silver broke through $75 per ounce for the first time. The loose prospects of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks supported the performance of precious metals, leading to a resonance breakthrough in various varieties. Short - term market volatility has increased [1]. - Bullish funds continued to flow into platinum and palladium. The platinum contract hit the daily limit, and the price was revised upwards. The platinum market saw a capital inflow of over 3 billion yuan, with a total of over 9 billion yuan in settled funds. The palladium market had a capital inflow of 2 billion yuan, with over 4.2 billion yuan in settled funds. In 2026, the supply shortage of platinum and palladium is expected to continue, and the supply gap of palladium will significantly narrow. With the support of the prospects for large - scale application of hydrogen energy, funds are optimistic about the future price of platinum and palladium. The price difference between platinum and palladium exceeded 160 yuan per gram. Platinum and palladium are in a bull market cycle, and the market is still relatively small compared to gold and silver, so funds have strong control. The mid - term strategy is to continue with long - position allocation. The implied volatility of platinum and palladium options has been rising, and investors should pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options [2]. Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Market Performance - After the Christmas holiday, the international precious metals market continued to be strong, with gold reaching a new high and silver breaking through $75/ounce [1]. - Bullish funds flowed into platinum and palladium, with the platinum contract hitting the daily limit and price revisions [2]. Market Influencing Factors - The loose prospects of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks supported the performance of precious metals [1]. - The expected supply shortage in 2026 and the prospects for large - scale application of hydrogen energy boosted the confidence of funds in platinum and palladium [2]. Investment Strategies - Short - term investors should pay attention to position control due to increased market volatility [1]. - Mid - term investors should continue with long - position allocation for platinum and palladium, and pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options for platinum and palladium options [2].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].

截至2025年12月26日亚洲时段，美元兑瑞郎报0.7879，较前一交易日上涨0.0005，涨幅0.0635%，当日 开盘0.7874，最高触及0.7887，最低下探0.7862。该货币对近期持续承压，此前已跌破0.79关键关口，核 心受美联储降息、瑞郎避险属性及瑞士央行政策等因素主导。 美瑞央行政策路径分化是汇价核心驱动。美联储2025年已累计降息75个基点，12月再度降息25基点至 3.5%-3.75%，且市场预期2026年可能继续降息，显著削弱美元收益优势。而瑞士央行9月维持政策利率 于0%不变，市场定价其2026年或将转向加息，政策预期差支撑瑞郎走强。 瑞郎避险属性强化进一步压制汇价。当前全球地缘风险升温及美国贸易政策不确定性上升，推动资金涌 入瑞郎这一传统避险资产，自二季度以来瑞郎兑美元已累计升值超10%。尽管瑞士经济面临通缩压力， 但负通胀使得实际收益率仍能提供支撑，叠加经济基本面相对稳固，瑞郎韧性凸显。 美元短期韧性暂阻汇价大幅下行。美国三季度GDP表现超预期，部分美联储官员释放偏鹰信号，强调需 观望降息效果，推动美元自低点温和反弹。同时，套利交易调整带来短期支撑，渣打银行指出过度看淡 美元仓位 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美委局势骤然升级，是本次油价反弹最直接、最强劲的驱动力。美国特朗普政府对 委内瑞拉的施压力度空前加大，不仅下令"全面彻底封锁"进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，还计划扣 押更多委内瑞拉油轮。据估算，美国已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collective strength of precious metals is driven by three core logic factors: expectations of monetary policy easing, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] Monetary Policy Easing Expectations - The global liquidity easing cycle is the primary driver of the current rise in precious metals, with the Federal Reserve having completed three rate cuts by 2025 and expectations for further cuts in 2026 [2] - A low interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, prompting a shift of funds from fixed-income assets to precious metals [2] - The continuous weakening of the US dollar, which has fallen by 8.37% in 2025, enhances the purchasing power of non-US currency holders, stimulating global demand for precious metals [2] Geopolitical Risks and Supply-Demand Imbalances - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, contribute to a strong safe-haven premium for precious metals [3] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves to diversify assets and reduce reliance on US dollar assets, further supporting the bottom for precious metals [3] - Silver's price surge is driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with industrial demand increasing by 15% due to a 30% rise in global photovoltaic installations in 2025, while supply growth remains weak [5] Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market's siphoning effect has amplified the upward trend in precious metals, with significant inflows into silver futures funds reflecting strong retail investor interest [6] - Market sentiment is self-reinforcing, with reports of substantial profits attracting more investors, leading to a trend-driven market behavior [6] Regulatory Measures and Market Signals - Regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to cool the overheated market, such as trading limits on silver futures to curb excessive speculation [7] - The introduction of purchase limits on silver LOF funds indicates structural risks in the market, as funds reach trading limits and leverage constraints [8] Valuation and Volatility Risks - Precious metals are currently at historically high valuations, with silver up nearly 150% and gold up 70% in 2025, indicating accumulated risks of a price correction [9] - Price volatility has become the norm, with significant daily fluctuations in silver futures posing challenges for investors [9] Consumer Market Reactions - The surge in precious metal prices has led to a negative sentiment in the consumer market, with potential buyers postponing purchases due to increased costs [10] - Historical trends show a negative correlation between precious metal prices and consumer demand, suggesting that high prices may suppress physical demand [10] Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - There is a divergence of opinions among institutions regarding the precious metals market in 2026, with some predicting significant price increases while others caution against the unsustainable high premiums [11] - Professional investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and consider increasing gold allocations while managing exposure to more volatile silver [12] - Retail investors should avoid speculative behaviors and consider phased buying strategies to mitigate risks associated with high premiums and market volatility [12] Conclusion - The precious metals bull market in 2025 is a result of multiple macroeconomic factors, but risks such as regulatory tightening and high valuations are emerging [13] - Investors should remain aware of both supportive factors and potential market corrections, emphasizing risk management in their strategies [13]

日度报告——综合晨报 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗，央行开展 1771 亿元逆回购 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-26 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗 以色列对伊朗发动打击的可能性明显上升，因此需要关注地缘 风险的变化，美元指数短期震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 1771 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 综 央行增加购债规模的概率较大，机构交易结构较为脆弱的问题 正在得到缓解，且近期稳增长政策也相对有限，长债震荡转涨 的概率较高。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 前 11 月新开工改造老旧小区已完成全年计划 报 A 股延续上涨，沪指录得 7 连阳，全 A 成交额稳定在 1.9 万亿左 右。商业航天、存储芯片等题材涨幅较大。预计沪指将在短期 内冲击 4000 点。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 1-11 月全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区 2.58 万个 本周铁水预计继续下行 1-2 万吨，市场关注 1 月份铁水是否继续 下滑。本周五大材库存明显去化，非五大材库存小幅攀升。预 计短期基本面仍将承压，以弱势震荡为主。 有色金属（锡） 美未来 18 个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current report from the CICC macro asset team suggests that the Federal Reserve remains in a loose monetary cycle, and the U.S. economy is facing stagflation, indicating that the gold bull market may continue until a turning point in U.S. policy and economy is observed [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The gold bull market may not have ended as the Federal Reserve's policies and the U.S. economy have not shown signs of a turning point [1] - Market volatility is expected to increase as gold prices have diverged from fundamental indicators, making specific price predictions challenging [1] - A potential turning point is anticipated in early 2026, where rising inflation and marginal economic improvement may lead the Federal Reserve to slow its easing pace, which could temporarily pressure gold prices [1] Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Gold prices recently surpassed $4,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high due to three main factors: 1. The Federal Reserve's resumption of the easing cycle, having cut rates three times by 25 basis points each and planning to purchase short-term government bonds starting in December [2] 2. A decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar, with the fiscal deficit rising to around 6% post-pandemic, leading to increased debt risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] 3. Escalating global geopolitical risks, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have seen even greater increases than gold, influenced by industrial supply and demand factors [3] - The demand for silver is expected to rise in sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and electronic equipment, while supply expansion remains limited, leading to tighter supply-demand dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the significant rise in gold prices this year has led to high valuations, and the expectation of a phase-out of the Federal Reserve's easing policy by early 2026 may pose risks [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will eventually accelerate easing again next year, suggesting that a notable pullback in gold prices early next year could present a buying opportunity [1] - Following the substantial increase in gold prices, other commodities such as copper and silver have also shown strong performance, reflecting the liquidity spillover effect from gold [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Strategy - Commodities can serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks and the overheating of the U.S. economy, leading to a recommendation to adjust commodity allocations to a benchmark level, with a particular focus on non-ferrous metals [1] - Metals like silver have a smaller market size and lower liquidity compared to gold, which increases the risk of volatility if gold prices fluctuate next year; therefore, it is advised to implement risk control measures to avoid chasing prices blindly [1]