甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月29日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 210 | 253 | -43 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of factors including the performance of the US dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchasing behavior [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The US dollar index has fallen below 98, reaching its lowest point since April, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped to a one-week low, reducing the holding cost of gold [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the impending US tariff deadline and ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - A significant increase in central bank gold purchases has been noted, with 19 out of 36 global central banks directly procuring gold from domestic mines, up from 14 last year, indicating a shift away from reliance on US dollar settlements [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends and Future Outlook - Gold prices have recently surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, driven by the weakness of the dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying [4]. - The upcoming tariff deadline and signals from the Federal Reserve are expected to increase market volatility, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [4]. - Long-term trends suggest that central bank purchases and diversification of monetary reserves will enhance the strategic value of gold, although high levels of net long positions in gold futures may lead to profit-taking if the Fed delays rate cuts or geopolitical tensions ease [4].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of over 36% compared to gold's 30% [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June, silver prices have risen sharply, reaching over $39 per ounce, with a peak of $39.356 per ounce on July 23, marking a 14-year high [3][6]. - The year-to-date performance of silver has surpassed that of gold, with silver's increase at 36% and gold's at 30% [2][3][4]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as an investment and industrial metal, with increasing demand from the solar energy sector and electric vehicles [9][10]. - Geopolitical risks and rising inflation have heightened market uncertainty, leading to increased investment in precious metals as a safe haven [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings in silver ETFs, with global silver ETF holdings rising to 15,158.37 tons as of July 22, 2023, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment [11][10]. - Retail investment in silver bars and coins has surged by over 40% year-on-year, indicating growing public interest in silver as an investment [12][13][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices could reach $40 per ounce within three months, driven by strong industrial demand and supply constraints [18][19]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is expected to reach 3,659 tons by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall, primarily due to industrial demand [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and oversupply expectations, provided that geopolitical situations remain controllable [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of the year, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, U.S. tariff policies, and increased production from OPEC+ [1]. - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated from a high of $83 per barrel in January to a low of approximately $58 per barrel in April, with a volatility range of $25 per barrel [1]. - In June, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI prices surging over $10 per barrel, reaching a peak of $78 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The increase in global oil supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, with OPEC+ accelerating production to capture market share [2]. - OPEC+ announced an unexpected production increase of 410,000 barrels per day on April 3, contributing to a significant drop in oil prices [2]. - The U.S. and other non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day this year, which aligns with the global demand increase forecasted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have caused rapid fluctuations in oil prices, with U.S. sanctions on Russia and tensions with Iran impacting market expectations [3]. - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant price increase, with WTI and Brent prices rising over 13% in a single day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and tariff risks [5]. - The cumulative production increase from OPEC+ from April to August is projected to reach 1.918 million barrels per day, potentially leading to oversupply and price declines [5]. - WTI prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $72 per barrel, with a mainstream range of $55 to $65 per barrel anticipated for the second half of the year [6].

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices experienced significant volatility, with a peak increase of over 4%, reaching a maximum of 549.4 yuan per barrel [6][8] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to expectations of marginal supply contraction and geopolitical risks affecting supply uncertainty, alongside a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [8] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, which may offset reductions in U.S. shale oil output, maintaining a balanced supply-demand scenario [8] Group 2: Polysilicon Market Trends - Polysilicon prices showed high volatility, with a trading range fluctuation of 6.67%, peaking at 46,000 yuan per ton before stabilizing above 43,000 yuan [2][4] - The average market price for polysilicon (N-type dense material) increased by 5.7 yuan per kilogram week-on-week, with production costs rising due to higher silicon powder prices [4] - Market sentiment for polysilicon remains positive, with expectations of continued strong performance despite potential overcapacity issues [5] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Supply and Pricing - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged, with a peak increase of 4.32%, reflecting a recovery of over 15% from year-to-date lows [9][11] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 65,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 8.52% from late June [11] - Supply disruptions due to regulatory actions against companies like Zangge Mining have contributed to price fluctuations, indicating a cautious market outlook [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights that better-than-expected U.S. economic data has boosted oil demand, leading to a rise in oil prices, with retail sales increasing by 0.6% month-on-month and a significant drop in crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels [1][2][3] Economic Data - U.S. retail and food service sales for June reached $720.1 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% [1][2] - The previous month's data showed a decline of 0.9% in May [1] Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding the forecasted drop of 552,000 barrels [1][3] - The attack on oil fields in Iraq's Kurdistan region resulted in a daily production drop of 150,000 barrels, contributing to a tightening supply situation [2][3] Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical landscape, including U.S. trade policy uncertainties and Middle Eastern tensions, is expected to introduce volatility in the short term [2][3] - Recent events, such as Israeli attacks in Syria and drone strikes on Kurdish oil facilities, have heightened market awareness of geopolitical risks [2][3] Long-term Trends - Fossil fuels continue to account for 80% of the global energy structure, with industrialization and population growth in developing economies supporting long-term demand [4] - The current stability in oil prices is attributed to a dynamic balance of various soft power factors, including policy adjustments and geopolitical risks [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. With the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still present, the premium of crude oil has increased. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. Although 8 major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the potential for further production expansion is limited in the future as the production increase negative factors are digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is moderately strong and oscillatory, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5]. Price Movement and Data - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a moderately strong and oscillatory trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.79% to 511.9 yuan per barrel [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. It will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene ethylene, in the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [15][17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend [19]. - For polypropylene, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [22]. - For PTA, under the situation of expected continuous inventory accumulation and weakening demand, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, although the fundamentals are weak, it is expected to be strong in the short term due to unexpected events [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $0.98, or 1.47%, to $67.62; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $0.94, or 1.37%, to $69.65; INE main crude oil futures fell by 0.60 yuan, or 0.12%, to 516.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 12.23 million barrels, a 1.92% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 9.06 million barrels, a 7.00% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 23.39 million barrels, a 5.35% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.78 million barrels to 44.68 million barrels, a 3.82% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 17 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate continued to decline, and the profit slightly decreased but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas device start - up returned to the mid - high level, and the market reaction to overseas supply disruptions was over, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load rebounded this week, but the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the start - up rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid falling and those of chlorides and MTBE rising, showing overall weakness [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1743 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent start - up rate will continue to rise, supporting the demand for urea. Export containerization continued, and port inventory continued to increase [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously, showing strong momentum. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons, or 0.02%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a 0.25% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a 0.45% decrease. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 507,500 (+23,000) tons [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The rubber price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4955 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 118 (- 3) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a 0.5% decrease; the start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a 1.6% decrease; the start - up rate of the ethylene method was 71%, a 2.5% increase. The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.1%, a 1.8% decrease. Factory inventory was 382,000 tons (- 5,000), and social inventory was 624,000 tons (+32,000) [12]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The start - up rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the start - up rate of benzene ethylene continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene ethylene increased significantly, and the overall start - up rate of the three S products in the demand side decreased due to the off - season [15][17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The global trade policy uncertainty has returned due to the US tariff policy. The spot price of polyethylene fell, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate was 78.84%, a 0.01% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 529,300 tons, a 36,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 57,700 tons, a 2,900 - ton decrease. The average downstream start - up rate was 38%, a 0.13% increase [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The profit of Shandong local refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal supply of propylene returning [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The downstream start - up rate fluctuated seasonally downward. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 26 yuan to 6742 yuan, and the PX CFR fell by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was 119 yuan (- 41), and the 9 - 1 spread was 134 yuan (+36) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The load in China was 81.3%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 73.6%, a 0.5% decrease. Some devices had load adjustments. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 117,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 22,000 tons. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 165,000 tons [22]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 8 yuan to 4714 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 10 yuan to 4730 yuan. The basis was 24 yuan (+13), and the 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (+16) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The terminal texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [23]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4372 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 37 yuan to 4437 yuan. The basis was 62 yuan (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan (+15) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 45,000 tons, and the port inventory was 553,000 tons, a 27,000 - ton decrease [24].

Core Viewpoint - Under the backdrop of normalized global geopolitical risks, weakened dollar credit system, and rising economic uncertainty, gold has emerged as a "yardstick" for measuring asset value [1] Asset Performance - Since March 2018, only a few cryptocurrencies have recorded positive returns when priced in gold, while other asset classes have generally underperformed [2] - The report highlights that the performance of cryptocurrencies is driven by payment convenience, technological innovation premiums, and supply scarcity, particularly Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reinforces its "digital gold" status [4] - Equity assets have shown nominal growth but remain weak when priced in gold, primarily relying on liquidity injections, with a peak growth rate of 26.7% in the US M2 money supply [4] - Real estate in the US and India has underperformed relative to gold, despite benefiting from economic resilience and demographic dividends [4] Industry Performance - All major industries have underperformed gold since 2018, but resource sectors and new momentum industries, such as high-dividend coal and banking, have shown relative strength [6] - New momentum industries, represented by electric new energy and TMT, have outperformed traditional sectors like real estate [7] - In the secondary industry, precious metals have been the standout performer since 2018, with emerging technologies like semiconductors outperforming traditional tech [8] Style and Strategy - Small-cap stocks have emerged as the absolute winners, with the micro-cap index outperforming gold since 2018 due to a reverse investment mechanism, low valuations, and liquidity premiums [10][13] - The report indicates that small-cap factors have significantly outperformed gold, while large-cap stocks have lagged, reflecting a preference for emerging small-cap industries [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by market uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and potential changes in monetary policy due to political pressures [1][2][3]. Market Influences - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility, initially dropping to $3,319.58 per ounce before surging to a three-week high of $3,377.17 due to market reactions to news about President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Powell [1][2]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of the dismissal plan indicates heightened concerns over the Fed's independence, which is crucial for maintaining the credibility of the U.S. financial system [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including a decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI), has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [2]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators such as initial jobless claims and retail sales, with expectations that most data will be unfavorable for gold prices, suggesting potential for price corrections [2][3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a defined range of $3,375 to $3,320, indicating a lack of strong directional movement. A breakout above or below this range could lead to further price movements towards $3,400 or $3,285, respectively [3][5]. - The technical indicators suggest a preference for long positions in the current market environment, with key support levels identified at $3,320 and resistance at $3,375 [5][6]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions near $3,365 to $3,370 with a target of $3,350 to $3,340, and long positions near $3,325 to $3,330 with a target of $3,345 to $3,355 [6].