针对当前多空博弈的僵局，EasyMarkets易信认为，比特币目前在90000美元上方的震荡反映了投资者对 未来监管环境和宏观通胀路径的谨慎态度。虽然部分成功转型AI基础设施的矿商股表现稳健，显示出 行业内部存在结构性机会，但在短期内，宏观政策的定调将对比特币能否开启新一轮涨势起到决定性作 用。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 1月12日，上周五，加密货币市场再次上演了一出"冲高回落"的戏码，比特币在早盘一度尝试向上突 破，但最终未能站稳脚跟，价格重新回落至90000美元的关键心理关口附近。EasyMarkets易信认为，尽 管市场对风险资产仍存兴趣，但在宏观政策靴子落地之前，多头力量显得后劲不足，加密市场正处于一 个微妙的重新定价阶段。 从基本面来看，美国劳工部最新公布的12月就业报告呈现出极其复杂的信号。EasyMarkets易信表示， 上月新增非农就业岗位仅为5万个，低于市场预期的6万个，且前期数据遭遇了显著的下修。不过，失业 率却超预期降至4.4%。这种数据的矛盾性加剧了市场对劳动力市场真实状态的争论。受此类不确定因 素影响，比特币在一度触及92000美元的高位后迅速掉头向下，过去24小时跌幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Macro remains strong, with the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosting risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthening demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - Zinc: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - Tin: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - Lithium carbonate: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market No relevant content provided. 02. Forecast of This Week's Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the slowdown in US non - farm employment growth in December exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate declined, boosting confidence in the economy avoiding recession. Fundamentally, domestic bauxite is in short supply in the north, and alumina plants' willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is weak due to the continuous decline in alumina prices. The domestic bauxite price is expected to decline further. The import bauxite market has a divergence in the intended prices of buyers and sellers, with overall sluggish transactions. However, the long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas supports future supply. Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, showing a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression", and high aluminum prices are the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and industry operating rate recovery [11]. - Viewpoint: Macro remains strong, and the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosts risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthens demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated at high levels. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat week - on - week, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 6.25 US dollars per dry ton. In January, the window for importing zinc concentrates in China remained open, and smelters' enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc concentrates decreased. The decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, and it will take time for processing fees to rebound. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 49.90%. In terms of inventory, after the New Year's Day holiday, the center of zinc prices shifted significantly upward, and die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was low, resulting in a decrease in raw material inventories and an obvious accumulation of finished product inventories. Terminal orders weakened, and new orders from enterprises were mostly concentrated on rigid - demand purchases. In addition, the price difference between copper and aluminum increased significantly, the zinc - aluminum price difference narrowed, and the zinc - copper price difference widened, leading to an increase in processing fees by die - casting zinc alloy enterprises [13]. - Viewpoint: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - **Tin** - Logic: In November, the shortage of raw materials eased, with an increase in the import volume of tin concentrates from Myanmar and Congo (Kinshasa). The operating rate of domestic smelting enterprises remained at the current level, with limited probability of further increase. The downstream semiconductor market is stable, but industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances are gradually entering the off - season. Recently, the sharp increase in tin prices is mainly due to the significant increase in the risk appetite of the metal market led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the price volatility of tin has increased significantly [14]. - Viewpoint: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Logic: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract fluctuated significantly in the range, with the main contract rising 17.96% week - on - week to 143,420 yuan per ton. The spot price also increased. On the supply side, raw material prices rose sharply, the operating rate decreased slightly but production increased slightly, and there were significant differences in production processes. On the demand side, the production of cathode materials and power cells decreased slightly, but inventories were depleted, and the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles supported demand. In terms of inventory, the total inventory increased slightly, with significant differences in different links. In terms of cost and profit, the whole industry chain turned profitable, and the profit elasticity of lithium mica was high. Macroeconomic policies formed synergistic benefits, and short - term regulatory tightening measures were taken [15]. - Viewpoint: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 620 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 550 yuan per ton, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 67.61 US dollars per ton in the week of January 9, down 0.74 US dollars week - on - week and 40.65 US dollars year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 4.0423 million tons in the week of January 9, down 483,800 tons week - on - week and 186,500 tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 5.8804 million tons, up 1.1296 million tons week - on - week and 2.5927 million tons year - on - year [25]. - **Alumina** - Price, Cost, and Profit: The domestic price in Henan was 2,670 yuan per ton in the week of January 12, down 20 yuan week - on - week and 2,610 yuan year - on - year; the full cost was 2,714.3 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 59.6 yuan week - on - week and 734 yuan year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 171.67 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 27.14 yuan week - on - week and down 2,036.16 yuan year - on - year [28]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Total Cost: The total cost was 16,197.37 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 59.19 yuan week - on - week and down 5,054.46 yuan year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was 90 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 150 yuan week - on - week and 30 yuan year - on - year [30]. - **Downstream Processing of Electrolytic Aluminum** - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables was 59.6 in the week of January 8, up 2 week - on - week and down 0.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.7, up 1.4 week - on - week and down 3.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips was 65, up 2 week - on - week and down 1.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 48.8, down 1.9 week - on - week and up 13.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, down 0.2 week - on - week and up 3.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58, down 2 week - on - week and up 4.9 year - on - year [36][37]. - **Inventory** - Bonded - area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 41,000 tons in the week of January 8, up 2,700 tons week - on - week and down 3,800 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 55,400 tons, up 1,200 tons week - on - week and 1,400 tons year - on - year [42]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory was 730,000 tons in the week of January 12, up 46,000 tons week - on - week and 271,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - Weekly Outbound Volume of Aluminum Ingots in Major Consumption Areas: The weekly outbound volume was 66,100 tons in the week of January 5, down 33,500 tons week - on - week and 59,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - SHFE Inventory: The SHFE inventory was 143,828 tons in the week of January 9, up 14,010 tons week - on - week and down 34,646 tons year - on - year [43]. - LME Inventory: The LME inventory was 497,825 tons in the week of January 8, down 11,425 tons week - on - week and 121,450 tons year - on - year [43]. - **Spot and Basis** - Spot: SMM A00 aluminum [46]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was - 425 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 65 yuan week - on - week and down 210 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 300 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan week - on - week and down 25 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 390 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan week - on - week and down 85 yuan year - on - year [49]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Aluminum** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 125 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 100 yuan week - on - week and 130 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was 35 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week and 150 yuan year - on - year [50]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and Processing Fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 20,755 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 12, up 135 yuan week - on - week and 657 yuan year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,500 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 450 yuan year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 37.5 US dollars per dry ton, down 6.25 US dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 7,668 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, up 598 yuan week - on - week and 42 yuan year - on - year; the import profit and loss was 398.7 yuan per ton, up 419.85 yuan week - on - week and 142 yuan year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 110,000 physical tons in the week of January 9, down 20,000 tons week - on - week and up 10,000 tons year - on - year [61]. - **Refined Zinc Inventory** - Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 118,300 tons in the week of January 12, up 3,500 tons week - on - week and 57,300 tons year - on - year [65]. - Bonded - area Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The bonded - area inventory was 3,300 tons in the week of January 8, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 2,200 tons year - on - year [65]. - SHFE Refined Zinc Inventory: The SHFE refined zinc inventory was 73,852 tons in the week of January 9, up 4,059 tons week - on - week and 52,812 tons year - on - year [65]. - LME Zinc Inventory: The LME zinc inventory was 107,450 tons in the week of January 8, up 1,125 tons week - on - week and down 109,450 tons year - on - year [65]. - **Galvanized** - Production: The production was 313,970 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,510 tons week - on - week and 4,520 tons year - on - year [69]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate was 54.39 in the week of January 8, up 1.41 week - on - week and 0.67 year - on - year [69]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory was 12,480 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,485 tons week - on - week and 1,335 tons year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 373,000 tons, up 10,100 tons week - on - week and down 20,300 tons year - on - year [69]. - **Basis of Zinc: SMM 0 Zinc Ingot** - Spot: SMM 0 zinc ingot [70]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was 110 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 190 yuan week - on - week and down 325 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was 60 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan week - on - week and down 565 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 20 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week and 720 yuan year - on - year [73]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Zinc** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 50 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 175 yuan week - on - week and 240 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 130 yuan per ton, down 195 yuan week - on - week and 395 yuan year - on - year [74]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.3362 million tons in the week of January 9, down 0.003 million tons week - on - week and up 0.0337 million tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 69.38% in the week of January 9, down 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and up 6.96 percentage points year - on - year [83]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory** - SHFE Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 6,935 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,001 tons week - on - week and up 582 tons year - on - year [86]. - Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in China by Region: The social inventory of tin ingots in China by region was 7,478 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,042 tons week -

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that macroeconomic policies are crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and advancing high-quality development in China [1] - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy for the first time in 14 years, alongside a moderately loose monetary policy, to support economic recovery [1] - The 2026 macroeconomic policy will focus on stability while seeking progress, enhancing quality and efficiency, and integrating existing and new policies to improve governance effectiveness [1] Group 2 - The proactive fiscal policy will include increased deficit rates, larger government bond issuance, and enhanced transfer payments to local governments to support growth, structural adjustments, and risk prevention [2] - There is a need to address local fiscal difficulties by establishing mechanisms for increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, ensuring the sustainability of fiscal policies [2] - The national public budget expenditure for 2025 is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, with 10.3 trillion yuan allocated for transfers to local governments, highlighting the tight fiscal environment [3] Group 3 - The monetary policy in 2025 will involve timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price increases as key considerations for monetary policy [4] - A variety of monetary policy tools will be employed flexibly to support the real economy while maintaining financial system health [4] Group 4 - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies relies on precise implementation, enhancing the financial service quality for key sectors such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation [5] - There is a growing need to balance internal and external economic relationships, ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [5] - The complexity of the current economic environment necessitates a coherent approach to policy-making to avoid conflicting effects and enhance market expectations [5] Group 5 - Strengthening policy coordination and consistency is essential to prevent issues like "composite fallacy" or "decomposition fallacy" in macroeconomic governance [6] - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies, along with reform measures, is crucial for achieving consistent macroeconomic policy outcomes [6] - Effective management of market expectations and timely communication with the public are vital for boosting social confidence in the economy [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual CPI remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [4][6] - The month-on-month PPI increase was influenced by improved supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand increases in certain industries, such as coal and gas production [4][5] - Input factors led to a divergence in price trends for domestic non-ferrous metals and oil-related industries, with non-ferrous metal prices rising due to international price increases, while oil-related prices fell due to declining international oil prices [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the importance of "adapting to local conditions" in economic work, highlighting its role in achieving high-quality development and effective governance in China [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Strategy and Development - The concept of "adapting to local conditions" is a key method advocated by Xi Jinping, applied across various sectors including poverty alleviation, rural revitalization, and ecological governance [3][4]. - The current economic environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period requires tailored approaches to address unique regional challenges, avoiding one-size-fits-all solutions [3][4]. - The emphasis on local adaptation is crucial for achieving high-quality development and addressing the imbalances between urban and rural areas [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Performance and Projections - China's economy is projected to grow by approximately 5% in 2025, with a total economic output expected to reach 140 trillion yuan [7][10]. - The manufacturing sector shows positive trends, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing, outpacing overall industrial growth [10][11]. - Despite challenges from international trade tensions, China's overall exports increased by 5.4% in dollar terms, demonstrating resilience [8][10]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Governance - The articles stress the need for effective macroeconomic policies, including a more proactive fiscal policy and a flexible monetary policy to support economic recovery [15][18]. - There is a focus on enhancing the efficiency of fiscal spending, with a significant budget allocation of 29.7 trillion yuan for public expenditure in 2025 [17]. - The importance of aligning various policies to avoid contradictions and ensure cohesive economic governance is highlighted [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policy is crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and advancing high-quality development in China, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 and 2026 [1] Fiscal Policy - In 2025, the fiscal policy will increase the deficit ratio and arrange a larger scale of government bonds, enhancing local transfer payments to support growth, structural adjustments, and risk prevention [2] - The fiscal expenditure for 2025 is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, with central government transfers to local governments amounting to 10.3 trillion yuan, indicating significant fiscal pressure [3] - There is a need to address local fiscal difficulties by establishing mechanisms for increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, ensuring the basic financial security for grassroots services [2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2025 will adopt a flexible approach, including timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4] - The emphasis will be on maintaining liquidity and promoting low financing costs while addressing structural economic issues through targeted monetary policy tools [4] - A diverse toolbox of monetary policy instruments will be utilized to balance short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while ensuring the health of the financial system [4] Policy Coordination - There is a strong emphasis on the need for precise and effective macroeconomic policies, focusing on enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and supporting key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [5] - The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is essential to prevent inconsistencies that could undermine market expectations and policy effectiveness [6] - The government aims to strengthen the consistency and effectiveness of macro policies, ensuring that various measures work in concert to stabilize the economy [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - The coking coal and coke market currently has an oversupply situation. With the continuous low level of hot metal, there is limited room for price increases. It is more likely to operate stably with fluctuations before the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: In December, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, and non - manufacturing PMI to 50.2%. The recovery was driven by policies, external demand, and seasonal factors. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" start - up year, with economic growth pressure, proactive fiscal policies are expected to be implemented early, and corporate profit recovery will be an important market driver [8] - **International Market**: Overseas economies show a pattern of total expansion and falling interest rates. Major economies have looser monetary policies. The Fed cut the federal funds rate in December. The US, EU, and Japan have increasing fiscal deficits. Although the US economy grew rapidly in Q3 2025, core inflation is falling, providing room for loose policies, but future interest rate paths are uncertain [8] Coal Supply - In 2025, from January to November, China's total raw coal production was 4.402 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.84%. As of January 5, 2026, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal of 523 sample mines decreased month - on - month. In December, coking coal production declined slightly. In January, coal production will be restricted by various factors, and Mongolian coal imports may fall [10] Coking Coal Import - From January to November 2025, China's total coking coal imports were 104.8917 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.66%. Imports from Mongolia, Australia, Russia, and Canada all showed different trends. Weak demand and a cautious market sentiment restricted port coking coal prices [17] Coking Coal Inventory - As of January 5, 2026, the inventories of 523 clean coal sample mines, port coking coal, and independent coking enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of 247 integrated steel enterprises decreased slightly. In December, the coking coal inventory problem was significant, with upstream accumulation and slow downstream winter storage [26] Coke Supply - From January to November 2025, China's total coke production was 461 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. As of January 5, 2026, the daily output of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and that of 247 integrated steel plants increased slightly, but the capacity utilization rate decreased for both. In January, coke supply is expected to shrink further [34] Coke Import and Export - From January to November 2025, China's total coke and semi - coke exports were 693,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62%. Exports have been at a low level, restricted by coking coal cost fluctuations. In November, exports to Europe increased due to European steelmakers' procurement adjustments [44] Coke Inventory - As of January 5, 2026, the total coke inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The inventories of independent coking enterprises, 247 steel enterprises, and ports all rose. The overall coke inventory is accumulating, and the supply surplus pressure is increasing [47] Iron Element Demand - On January 5, 2026, the profit per ton of blast furnace steel increased, but the daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises and the consumption of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly. In December, coke demand weakened, and in January, demand may be affected by factors such as the late Spring Festival, environmental protection, and maintenance [55] Iron Element Terminal Demand - From January to November 2025, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. Steel exports increased by 6.66% year - on - year, showing economic structural differentiation [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific ratings for some individual industries, such as "看多" (Bullish) for glass [1]. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to continue its strong trend in the short - term and may rise further in 2026 due to macro - policy support, inflation recovery, and capital market reforms [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are generally affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals. Some metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel may show strong trends, while others like alumina may oscillate [1]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand, and policy. For example, corn is expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors like geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand, and cost. For example, the price of crude oil has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - Stock index: Expected to continue a strong trend in the short - term and rise in 2026 with policy support, inflation recovery, and capital inflow [1]. - Bond futures: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are warned [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Higher due to supply disruptions and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Expected to remain strong with tight supply expectations and positive macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Likely to oscillate as supply has room to release but the price is near the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Price has risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: May be strong in the short - term due to supply concerns and policy uncertainties [1]. - Stainless steel: Expected to be strong in the short - term, with suggestions of short - term long positions [1]. - Tin: Strengthened due to positive macro - sentiment, but the follow - up is affected by market sentiment [1]. - Precious metals: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and safe - haven demand [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May have strong and wide - range fluctuations in the short - term, with platinum recommended for long - term long positions or arbitrage [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, with high short - term speculative sentiment [1]. - Polysilicon: Terminal installation increases, and big manufacturers are reluctant to sell [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Rising rapidly in the short - term due to peak season and strong demand [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Valuations are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - Ferrous metals: Facing a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, price is under pressure in the short - term but may be affected by supply policies [1]. - Glass: Bullish, with supply - demand support and low valuation [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downside space [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Likely to oscillate widely, with attention on price drops during the price - cut implementation period [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May reverse due to seasonal factors and policies after the MPOB December data shows a possible short - term negative impact [1]. - Soybean oil: Recommended for long positions in the oil market, with a suggestion of long Y and short P spreads [1]. - Rapeseed oil: May decline due to global supply increase, but beware of short - term rebounds [1]. - Cotton: Currently in a situation of support but lack of drivers, with future attention on policies and weather [1]. - Sugar: Globally oversupplied, with cost support if the price drops further [1]. - Corn: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to low inventory and potential downstream restocking [1]. - Soybean meal: M03 - M05 is expected to be in a positive spread in the short - term, but operation should be cautious [1]. - Pulp: Expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton [1]. - Logs: Expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Livestock: Demand is stable, but capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts, but supply may increase [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: High profit, with supply and demand affected by various factors [1]. - BR rubber: High - inventory operation, with attention on price trends [1]. - PX and PTA: PX has a strong market, and PTA maintains high - level operation [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Rebounded due to supply - side news, with high downstream demand [1]. - Short - fiber: Follows cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: In a weak - balance state, with upward momentum depending on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: Limited upside space due to weak domestic demand, but supported by cost [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are mixed, with potential capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: Cost - supported, with short - term risk premiums rising [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].