证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ——利率周报（2025.12.08-2025.12.14） 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 中央经济工作会议定调 26 年经济工作 报告核心观点：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。宏观政策新增 "增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"的实施路径，新增"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度"表述，删除 2024 年的"稳住楼市股市"表述。财政政策方面，2025 年要继续 "实施更加积极的财政政策"、"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"。 货币政策上，2025 年要继续"实施适度宽松的货币政策"，降准降息方面表述从 2024 的"适时降准降息"变成"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，同时强调"把 促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。2025 年中央经济工 作会议重点任务表述在多个领域有明显变化：内需领域升级为"内需主导，建设强 大国内市场"；科技创新新增教育科技人才一体化方案和服务业扩能提质行动，强 化人工智能发展与企业创新主体地位；改革新增"反内卷"竞争 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]

新华财经北京12月15日电（记者安娜）从前11个月的数据来看，今年的经济增长目标是否能顺利实现？ 临近年终，这是社会各界普遍关注的问题。对此，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖15日在国新办发布会上 给出解答。 "今年以来，面对外部环境变化和内部风险挑战叠加的复杂严峻局面，在党中央坚强领导下，各地区各 部门深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，积极做强国内大循环，国民经 济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。"付凌晖说。 从全年情况看，他表示，尽管有困难有压力，但我国经济韧性强，宏观政策支持有力，新动能稳步成 长，实现全年经济增长预期目标有较好条件，主要体现在以下几方面： 三是宏观政策继续显效。今年以来，我国经济保持稳中有进发展态势，离不开更加积极有为的宏观政策 精准发力。"两重"建设和"两新"政策的实施，以及全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，扩大了需求、促进了 生产、推动了经济发展。近期，有关部门积极推动落实进一步促进消费、扩大有效投资、推动新场景大 规模应用的政策措施，将有利于增强经济增长动能，助力实体经济发展。尤其是，党的二十届四中全会 和中央经济工作会议胜利召开，有利于凝聚共识、提振信心，将为推动 ...

国家统计局12月15日发布数据显示，11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长 0.44%；全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.2%；社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%。1—11月 份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元，同比下降2.6%；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资 产投资增长0.8%。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在同日举行的新闻发布会上表示，从全年情况看，尽管有困难有压力，但 我国经济韧性强，宏观政策支持有力，新动能稳步成长，实现全年预期目标有较好条件。 保持稳中有进发展态势 数据显示，生产增势平稳。付凌晖表示，工业生产稳定增长。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，增速和上月基本持平。在产业升级发展带动下，技术含量和附加值较高的装备制造业快速发 展。11月份，装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，继续快于全部规模以上工业增长，对规模以上工业增 加值增长的贡献率达到59.4%。 市场销售扩大。付凌晖表示，商品销售持续增长。11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，居民 消费品质提升，部分升级类商品销售较快增长。11月份，限额以上商品零售额中化妆品类和金银珠宝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in November remained stable, but faced challenges due to external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, prompting the need for more proactive macro policies to boost domestic demand and stabilize the economy [1][11]. Economic Data Summary - In November, the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. For the first eleven months, the growth was 6.0%, maintaining stability [2]. - The service industry production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with a cumulative growth of 5.6% for the first eleven months [2][3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, with a cumulative growth of 4.0% for the first eleven months [5]. - The total import and export value increased by 4.1% year-on-year in November, with exports growing by 5.7% and imports by 1.7%. For the first eleven months, the total value grew by 3.6% [6]. Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector showed stability, with significant growth in specific industries such as biobased materials (29% increase), electronic materials (22.9%), and integrated circuits (24.6%) [2]. - The service sector demonstrated resilience, particularly in modern services, with notable growth in information technology services (12.9%) and leasing services (8.4%) [3]. - Retail sales in cultural and office supplies and communication equipment saw substantial growth, with increases of 11.7% and 20.6% respectively in November [5]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment down by 1.1% and real estate investment down by 15.9%. However, manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% [6][7]. - Equipment and tool purchases increased by 12.2%, indicating ongoing investment in modernization [7]. Policy Implications - The government plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance domestic demand and stabilize the economy, focusing on employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][11]. - The positive signals in pricing and improvements in corporate profitability suggest a gradual recovery, with industrial profits increasing by 1.9% year-on-year for the first ten months [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a positive overall tone from the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating a strong continuity and stability in macroeconomic policies for 2026, which aims to enhance market expectations and confidence in long-term economic growth [6][9][10] - The conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with an expected fiscal effort for 2026 to remain consistent with 2025 [9][10] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and loan rates, while guiding financial institutions to support key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [9][10] Group 2 - The primary task for 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with initiatives to boost consumption and stabilize investment, addressing the slowdown in investment growth observed since the second half of 2025 [10][11] - The report outlines a commitment to innovation-driven growth, emphasizing the importance of nurturing new growth drivers and enhancing the role of enterprises in innovation, alongside measures to protect intellectual property in emerging fields [11][12] - The conference addressed various social concerns, including the challenges posed by external economic conditions and domestic supply-demand imbalances, and provided clear directives to tackle these issues, thereby fostering consensus and confidence in future development [12][14]

中新网12月15日电 国新办15日举行新闻发布会，请国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合 统计司司长付凌晖介绍2025年11月份国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。会上，付凌晖介绍，今年以来， 面对外部环境变化和内部风险挑战叠加的复杂严峻局面，在党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门深入实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，积极做强国内大循环，国民经济保持总体平 稳、稳中有进发展态势。从全年情况看，尽管有困难有压力，但我国经济韧性强，宏观政策支持有力， 新动能稳步成长，实现全年预期目标有较好条件。 二是发展新动能持续壮大。科技创新和产业创新深入融合，新质生产力培育壮大，新业态新模式快速发 展，为经济发展注入新的活力和动力。从供给看，高端化、数字化、智能化生产发展向好。1-11月份， 规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.2%，数字产品制造业增加值增长9.3%；工业机器人、集成电 路产量分别增长29.2%和10.6%。从需求看，消费模式创新加快，文化体育等服务性消费快速成长。1-11 月份，服务零售额中，文体休闲类、通讯信息服务类零售额同比增长均超过10%。即时零售和直播电商 等带动下，1-11月 ...

二是发展新动能持续壮大。科技创新和产业创新深入融合，新质生产力培育壮大，新业态新模式快速发 展，为经济发展注入新的活力和动力。从供给看，高端化、数字化、智能化生产发展向好。1-11月份， 规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.2%，数字产品制造业增加值增长9.3%；工业机器人、集成电 路产量分别增长29.2%和10.6%。从需求看，消费模式创新加快，文化体育等服务性消费快速成长。1-11 月份，服务零售额中，文体休闲类、通讯信息服务类零售额同比增长均超过10%。即时零售和直播电商 等带动下，1-11月份，实物商品网上零售额同比增长5.7%。从价格看，我国数字化绿色化转型深入推 进，新能源产业、数字产品制造快速发展，带动相关产品价格上涨。11月份，有色金属冶炼和压延加工 业价格同比上涨7.8%，集成电路制造价格上涨1.7%，新动能的成长壮大，将有利于经济向好发展。 三是宏观政策继续显效。今年以来，我国经济保持稳中有进发展态势，离不开更加积极有为的宏观政策 精准发力。"两重"建设和"两新"政策的实施，以及全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，扩大了需求、促进了 生产、推动了经济。近期，有关部门积极推动落实进一步促进消费、扩 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the "Five Musts" proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping during the Central Economic Work Conference, which serve as a guiding framework for economic work in the new era [1] - The first must is to fully tap into economic potential, recognizing that while China has a vast market advantage, there are still untapped potentials that need to be addressed, particularly in expanding consumption and investment [2] - The second must is to combine policy support with reform and innovation, highlighting the importance of macro policies and structural reforms to ensure stable economic development [2] Group 2 - The third must focuses on balancing the roles of the market and government, advocating for a collaborative approach that avoids both excessive regulation and complete laissez-faire [3] - The fourth must stresses the importance of combining investments in physical assets with investments in human capital, indicating a shift towards prioritizing education, employment, and social welfare in policy decisions [3] - The fifth must is about strengthening internal capabilities to face external challenges, emphasizing the need for sustained domestic demand and risk management in key sectors [4] Group 3 - The conference also conveyed a clear message regarding macroeconomic policy stability, indicating that there will be no abrupt changes or reductions in policy support as the country embarks on the new "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - The emphasis on "long-termism" reflects a commitment to maintaining resilience in economic development despite external uncertainties, reinforcing the strategic determination to continue with established plans [5]

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