此前我们发出了对债市的做多信号，刚好遇上央行宣布重启国债买卖的利好消息。一个月下来之后，我们发现债市重新走回了"上有顶、下有底"的窄幅震荡 状态，这也是我们到年末的主要观点。 为什么要重提"上有顶、下有底"？首先，目前宏观"水温"比较冷，我们仍处于新旧动能转换时期，社会名义增长率相对不足，这对债市形成了支撑。但今年 货币政策非常温和，央行在避免引导债市形成单边预期，因此向更低利率突破的难度较大。有投资人会问，在这种震荡市该如何操作？我们的建议是：首 先，仓位不宜过重，因为震荡市确实难以择时；其次，建议大家参考我们第二部分将要介绍的量化择时模型，进行更精细化的操作。我们的模型也将陪伴各 位投资者，在市场中持续跟踪、不断迭代。 在介绍具体量化模型之前，我们先分析债市的潜在空间。量化模型跟踪的是趋势，仅能告知我们趋势延续的方向，但对远期空间的判断才是决定仓位的关 键。首先需要说明的是，历史上债市的大级别回撤，往往是基本面与政策面共同作用的结果。因此，目前大家暂时无需担心债券出现进一步大幅涨跌。当 然，近期有观点认为债市与基本面"脱钩"，或认为基本面分析、宏观分析已失效。但我们认为这种说法并不准确，基本面仍是核心分析 ...

"第二经济大省"江苏今年经济总量将再上一个万亿元台阶。12月11日，江苏"十五五"规划建议发布。在 总结"十四五"时期发展成就时，建议表示，江苏"经济实力显著提升，全省地区生产总值预计突破14万 亿元"。 此前一天，在江苏省政府新闻办举行的发布会上，江苏省发改委副主任林康也透露，过去五年，江苏地 区生产总值连跨3个万亿元台阶，今年有信心突破14万亿元。"'十四五'时期，江苏综合实力跃上新台 阶，13个设区市全部跻身全国百强，万亿级城市增至5座。" 要实现这四大"提升"，前提依然是自身经济发展。江苏特别提到，把坚守实体经济、构建现代化产业体 系作为强省之要。 作为第一制造大省，2024年江苏制造业增加值4.63万亿元，连续4年稳居全国首位，占GDP比重达 33.8%。不过江苏也坦言，自身还面临"新旧动能转换任务艰巨"等挑战。 为此，江苏一方面要支持冶金、化工、轻工、纺织、机械、船舶海工、建材等产业锻长板，加快向价值 链中高端迈进；另一方面，要增强新一代信息技术、新能源、新材料、生物医药、高端装备等产业优 势，培育航空航天、低空经济等增长新引擎；此外，还要加快壮大第三代半导体、氢能、生物制造等成 长型未来产业，推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The four cities of Neijiang, Meishan, Zigong, and Suining are collectively striving to surpass a GDP of 200 billion yuan, which would significantly enhance the economic structure of Sichuan province and contribute to a more resilient economic framework [5][6][10]. Economic Performance and Goals - As of 2024, the number of cities in Sichuan with a GDP exceeding 200 billion yuan is expected to increase from 9 to 13, indicating a collective leap in economic development levels [6][10]. - The four cities are targeting to achieve this goal by 2025, which would mean that over half of Sichuan's cities will have GDPs above 200 billion yuan [6][10]. Industry Development Strategies - Zigong is focusing on low-altitude economy and sodium battery industries, leveraging its aviation industrial park to create a complete industrial chain, with a reported 31% year-on-year growth in low-altitude economic output from January to September 2025 [7][8]. - Neijiang is developing its electronic information and biopharmaceutical industries, with a notable 10.7% year-on-year increase in industrial added value from January to September 2025 [8][12]. - Meishan is capitalizing on its geographical advantages to develop new energy and new materials industries, with significant investments from leading companies in various sectors [8][12]. - Suining is building a comprehensive lithium battery industry ecosystem, with over 55 lithium battery enterprises and a reported 15.6% increase in lithium industry added value from January to October 2025 [9][12]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The cities face challenges in transitioning from traditional industries to new growth drivers, with a need for innovation and efficiency improvements to sustain economic growth [10][11]. - The focus on new quality productivity and regional collaboration will be crucial for these cities to thrive in the post-200 billion yuan era [12][13]. - The competition will not only be about achieving the GDP target but also about who can effectively transition to new industrial opportunities and enhance collaborative development within the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [13].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province is accelerating the construction of an advanced manufacturing powerhouse during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on new industrialization and aiming to lead in national industrial and economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Economic Growth - The industrial economy in Shandong has achieved a scale and quality leap, with the industrial added value growing at an average annual rate of 7.5%, surpassing the national average by approximately 1.6 percentage points [2]. - The total industrial added value is projected to increase from 2.3 trillion yuan to 3.3 trillion yuan, representing a growth of over 40% [2]. - The number of large-scale industrial enterprises and their revenue have increased by 54.7% and 42.9% respectively since 2020 [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Shandong has emphasized the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with the coverage of R&D institutions in large-scale industrial enterprises rising from 13.3% in 2020 to nearly 40% [3]. - The province has implemented over 3,000 provincial-level technology innovation projects annually, achieving a nearly 90% self-research rate [3]. - Significant technological breakthroughs include the development of high-efficiency diesel engines and smart tunneling machines, contributing to the "Shandong manufacturing" reputation [3]. Group 3: Structural Transformation - The province is focusing on creating a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, with traditional industries undergoing significant upgrades [4]. - Investment in industrial technological transformation projects has averaged around 12,000 annually, with over 50% of industrial investment directed towards these upgrades [4]. - The chemical industry has seen a transformation with over 60% of enterprises now operating in industrial parks, and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value has decreased by 25.8% [4]. Group 4: Digital Economy Integration - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the digital economy is expected to exceed 50% of the total economy, with core digital industries projected to account for 10% [5]. - The province has established 27,000 5G base stations and created national-level internet backbone points, enhancing digital infrastructure [5]. - The digital transformation coverage among large-scale industrial enterprises has reached 95.1%, with a deep transformation rate of 47.8% [5]. Group 5: Industrial Ecosystem Development - Shandong has built a robust industrial ecosystem by fostering quality enterprises and enhancing collaboration across various sectors [6]. - The province has over 420,000 small and medium-sized enterprises, with an annual growth rate of 15.6% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6]. - The government has initiated a "chain leader" system to oversee key industrial chains, promoting coordinated development and resource integration [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," Shandong aims to focus on high-quality development, smart, green, and integrated industrial growth, establishing itself as a significant economic growth hub in Northern China [7].

中经记者 石健 南京报道 临近年关，多地政府冲刺全年经济目标，其中，盘活国有资源、资产、资金（以下简称"三资"）潜力， 实现其价值最大化，成为地方政府稳健经济发展、保障民生福祉的重要方式。 中国财政学会国有资本治理研究专委会副主任委员、现代咨询集团董事长丁伯康在接受《中国经营报》 记者采访时说："鉴于资产盘活模式丰富多样，需要从'三资'属性出发，将其盘活模式划分为资源资产 化、资产资本化、资本杠杆化三类。同时，要化解财政债务压力，'三资'盘活可以成为关键突破口。" 撬动经济的"支点" 今年以来，从东部沿海到中西部内陆，湖北、安徽、河南等地密集出台指导文件，深入推进全面盘活国 有"三资"工作。 前不久，成都一家城投公司对旗下的老旧厂房、闲置楼宇进行系统梳理。"经过梳理发现，虽然这些资 源地处优质区位，但是因为设施陈旧、功能落后等原因，导致长期处于低效运营状态，目前我们正在着 手进行盘活。"谈及对于这类资产的盘活计划，该城投公司负责人对记者说。 类似的情况出现在湖北十堰。前不久，湖北十堰某汽车老旧厂房变身智能锂电池厂，成为当地的"产业 引擎"。在当地国资人士看来，对于老旧厂房的处置，没有像以往一样，推倒变成商品房 ...

中新网12月9日电(记者 左宇坤)从钢铁、化工、建材等传统产业"压舱石"厚重有力，到信息技术、高端 装备、高端化工"新势力"加速崛起，山东经济的大船正行进在动能转换的关键航道。 要实现由大到强、由量到质的跨越，就必须将发展的基点牢牢锚定在科技创新之上。在这场深刻的变革 中，金融的角色也正发生深刻转变，被赋予了更前瞻、更主动的使命。 在山东推动新旧动能转换的进程里，金融正从"传统输血"转向"创新造血"，在齐鲁大地精准浇灌硬科技 的种子，破土生长为支撑山东高质量发展的参天大树。 动态血糖仪生产线。 供图 向新发力，浇灌"关键一跃" 一根细细的软针，以近乎蚊虫叮咬的感觉扎入上臂，通过一枚一元硬币大小的可穿戴设备，每隔5分钟 便可将实时血糖数据传递到手机APP或其他带蓝牙功能的智能穿戴设备上，生成连续14天的血糖波动完 整曲线，并发送异常提醒。 科技不断向前，减轻了痛苦，便利了生活。告别不断"扎手指"，血糖监测正从静脉、指尖有创，到当前 软针微创，再到真正无创的演变。 "动态血糖仪市场此前几乎被国外厂商垄断，国产产品的加快布局有效降低了用户使用成本。"山东硅基 算力科技有限公司总经理石先宝对记者介绍："我们的产品零售 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 08 日 第三，存量和增量。本次会议两个地方提到"存量和增量"，一是继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松 的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应；二是持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。这说明 26 年政策兼顾存量和增量，要将资源从低效存量转移出来以优化结构，而并非单纯在增量政策上发力做大总 量。与此同时，扩内需同样注重盘活存量。发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，切实提升宏观经济治理效能，也 与注重质效、跨周期调节相呼应。此外，货币适度宽松和财政更加积极的修饰词并无变化，关注中央经济工作会 议的详细表述。 第四，持续扩大内需，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争。本次会议再次提到"国际经贸斗争"，而今 年 7 月会议时未曾提及相关表述，当时正值中美经贸关系缓和期。当前中美经贸关系仍然处于缓和期，重提"国 际经贸斗争"，如何理解？在今年一季度美国加征关税之后，4 月政治局会议首次提出"国际经贸斗争"这一重 大判断。尽管当前中美经贸关系已经明显缓和，但部分欧洲、亚洲国家（如荷兰、日本等）在经贸等领域时有挑 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部 ...

"逆""跨"结合，提质增效 ——12 月政治局会议解读 2025 证 12 证 8 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 -8096 证zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 路自愿 证136-7105 -7587 证luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525070001 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock ...

Economic Performance - Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 98,565.8 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, maintaining its position as the third-largest economy in China[2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the GDP reached 77,115.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The province's industrial investment helped mitigate the negative impact of declining real estate investment, contributing to overall investment growth[2] Fiscal Strength - In 2024, Shandong's general public budget revenue was 7,711.74 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase from the previous year, ranking fifth nationally[4] - The tax ratio was 65.35%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous year, placing it 13th among provinces[4] - Government fund budget revenue fell to 4,832.12 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.9% due to declining land transaction prices[4] Debt Situation - By the end of 2024, Shandong's government debt reached 28,428.81 billion yuan, an 18.9% increase from 2023, ranking second nationally[7] - The debt-to-budget revenue ratio was 4.46 times, indicating a moderate level of risk compared to other provinces[7] - The debt growth was concentrated in larger cities, with Qingdao and Jinan having the highest debt levels at 4,382.57 billion yuan and 3,770.56 billion yuan, respectively[8] City-Level Analysis - Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai led the provincial economy with GDPs of 16,719.46 billion yuan, 13,527.60 billion yuan, and 10,782.83 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 41.6% of the province's total GDP[3] - Most cities experienced a slowdown in economic growth, with the average growth rate around 5% to 7%[3] - In 2024, the general public budget revenue for Qingdao and Jinan was 1,339.26 billion yuan and 1,083.05 billion yuan, respectively, showing a clear leading advantage[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging local industrial potential and improving livelihoods for high-quality urban development, using Jinan as a case study of effective project-driven growth [1][3]. Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - Jinan is undergoing a significant transformation with the "Northward Crossing" strategy, reshaping its spatial layout and moving from the "Daming Lake Era" to the "Yellow River Era" [3]. - The city has implemented a consistent strategy over five years, focusing on "project breakthroughs," which has become a core principle in urban development [3][4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Investment - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, Jinan has initiated 1,824 key municipal projects, with total investments exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4]. - The city is developing a comprehensive transportation network, having completed investments of 368.6 billion yuan in 235 key transportation projects, including a 57% increase in high-speed rail mileage to 446 kilometers [4][10]. - The underground transportation system is also expanding, with five new lines set to operate by the end of the year, totaling 248 kilometers [4]. Group 3: Industrial Growth and Innovation - Jinan is focusing on eliminating outdated capacities while fostering new growth sectors such as quantum technology and biomedicine, with these sectors now accounting for 18% of the economy [7][8]. - The city has seen a significant increase in high-tech manufacturing, with a 19.7% rise in value added, contributing 4.1 percentage points to industrial growth [11]. Group 4: Urban Renewal and Quality of Life - Urban renewal projects have transformed areas like Mingfu City into popular destinations, enhancing the living environment for residents [13][15]. - Jinan has renovated 2,381 old urban residential areas, benefiting 370,000 households, and has improved public infrastructure, including parks and flood control systems [14][15]. Group 5: Future Development Plans - Jinan plans to continue its project-focused strategy into 2024 and 2025, with thousands of new projects aimed at green and high-quality development [9]. - The city is also enhancing its industrial ecosystem by establishing numerous research and innovation centers, maintaining its leading position in the province [9].