1月27日，中国人民银行北京市分行、国家外汇管理局北京市分局举行2026年一季度新闻发布会，主要围绕2025年北京市金融统计数据、用好用足结构性货 币政策工具支持首都发展、做好金融"五篇大文章"、深化全国中小微企业资金流信用信息共享平台应用、外汇政策支持绿色低碳发展等方面介绍政策落实情 况和工作成效。 北京商报记者现场了解到，2025年北京社会融资规模增量达到18984.3亿元，同年末人民币各项贷款余额12.09万亿元，同比增长4.9%。同期北京实体经济融 资成本进一步下降，2025年12月，新发放一般贷款加权平均利率降至2.88%。整体来看，2025年北京金融运行呈现"总量增、结构优、成本降"的鲜明特征， 金融服务实体经济的质效持续提升。 具体来看，截至2025年末，北京运用科技创新和技术改造再贷款政策激励银行发放相关领域贷款940亿元，支持企业和项目近2000个。2025年末，北京地区 科技型中小企业、绿色领域、普惠小微、养老产业贷款同比分别增长21.9%、12.2%、11.6%、77.7%。 全年社融增量近1.9万亿元 整体来看，2025年在适度宽松货币政策与逆周期调节的双重作用下，北京金融运行呈现"总 ...

Group 1: Overseas Economic Data - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with initial jobless claims at 200,000, below the expected 209,000, indicating no significant pressure [1] - The U.S. Markit Composite PMI for January is at 52.8, indicating continued expansion in both manufacturing and services sectors [1] Group 2: Domestic Important Data - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF operations, with a total of 900 billion yuan to be conducted [2] - The LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, marking eight consecutive months of stability [2] - PBOC Governor Pan stated that the bank will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices have been on an upward trend since November, currently around $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to potentially exceed $6,000 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and a declining U.S. dollar index [6] - Silver has shown significant growth, with domestic futures rising from approximately 7,000 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of 2025 to 27,250 yuan per kilogram by January 23, 2026, and international prices reaching around $103.161 per ounce [9] Group 4: Currency Exchange Rate - As of January 23, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate is at 6.963, indicating a continued appreciation trend for the RMB [11] Group 5: Funding and Bond Market Performance - The funding environment remains generally loose despite tax period disturbances, with overnight rates showing an increase [14] - The bond market has seen a downward trend in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8298%, down from 1.8424% the previous week [20][21] - The credit bond market has shown improvement, with yields on city investment bonds decreasing [25][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - From January 20th to January 26th, the bond market seller sentiment index declined, while the buyer sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. The bond market allocation force steadily entered the market, and the suppression of the equity market slowed down, driving the long - term bonds to have a repair market. However, the expected time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is still far off, and the market has a strong expectation of range - bound fluctuations in the market. The seller sentiment cooled slightly, and the market's judgment on the subsequent space remains cautious [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment 3.1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.07, a decrease of 0.07 compared with January 13th - January 19th. Some institutional market views turned neutral. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 5 bullish, 22 neutral, and 3 bearish. 17% of institutions are bullish, believing that the warming of easing expectations and the decline in capital interest rates establish a favorable environment, combined with fundamental support and reverse layout opportunities. The bond market has a ceiling but also room below, showing a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. 73% of institutions are neutral, thinking that the recovery of the fundamentals and supply pressure pose a suppression, but the allocation force and loose capital supply provide support, and the regulatory desirable range restricts the downward space. The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations. 10% of institutions are bearish, expecting that the lack of confidence during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reverse, the long - term low - interest - rate expectation faces correction, and in the short term, under the suppression of supply shocks and the recovery of risk appetite, the bond market still has downward pressure [13]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was 0.00, an increase of 0.15 compared with January 13th - January 19th. The sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral view, with 5 bullish, 16 neutral, and 5 bearish. 19% of institutions are bullish, believing that the expected cooling of the stock market and hedging demand form a bullish support. The long - term decline of the population and real estate cycles establishes a low - interest - rate environment, combined with the warming of expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts and the alleviation of previous suppression factors, the bond market sentiment is significantly bullish. 62% of institutions are neutral, stating that although the expectation of MLF interest rate cuts and moderately loose monetary policy provide some support, under the money - attracting effect of the stock market and the constraints of the central bank's desirable range, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. 19% of institutions are bearish, believing that the long - term fundamentals weaken under the expectation of stable inflation and economic improvement, combined with the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and credit risk disturbances. Without new bullish factors, it is difficult to break through the central bank's range downward [14].

Core Insights - The CF40 macroeconomic policy report for Q4 2025 indicates that China's economy is in the early stages of recovery, with significant improvements in financial indicators such as the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits [1] - Corporate profits have reversed the downward trend observed over the past several years, while consumption and the labor market remain stable [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing counter-cyclical policy efforts in 2026, particularly through proactive fiscal policies and a focus on monetary policy to stimulate internal economic growth [1] Fiscal Policy - The report suggests that fiscal policy should maintain necessary spending levels through active borrowing [1] - Emphasis is placed on the role of monetary policy as a critical tool for activating internal growth dynamics [1] Monetary Policy - The current focus should be on the role of moderately loose monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [1] - Two key changes are necessary to encourage investment from businesses and consumption from residents: altering future expectations and ensuring that businesses and residents can "calculate the benefits" [1] - Monetary policy can leverage changes in expectations and incentives for investment and consumption to stimulate market-driven expansion of domestic demand [1]

Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The first batch of 2025 performance reports from listed banks has been released, with eight banks including China Merchants Bank and Huatai Bank reporting positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with seven of them achieving both revenue and net profit growth [6][7] - Key characteristics observed among these banks include steady asset expansion, improved asset quality with no significant increase in non-performing loan ratios, and increased provisioning efforts despite a decline in coverage ratios [7] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that benefiting from monetary policy, the decline in interest margins is expected to stabilize, potentially leading to a rebound in net interest income growth, while insurance policies are anticipated to boost fee income [7] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The Ministry of Finance has released five important fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies and implementing special guarantees for private investment [8][9] - These policies are designed to lower financing costs across various sectors, enhance credit demand in key areas, and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, thereby injecting strong momentum into the economy [9][10] - The government emphasizes a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support high-quality development and address challenges in the economy [8] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced the addition of 14 futures and options products as specific domestic varieties, marking a significant step in the internationalization of China's futures market [11] - This expansion is the largest in history, with the total number of specific domestic varieties reaching 38, and aims to enhance China's pricing power in global markets [11] - The CSRC's recent actions reflect a zero-tolerance approach towards market manipulation, as evidenced by a substantial fine of 1.02 billion yuan imposed for long-term stock price manipulation [12] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as trade disruptions [13] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to maintain growth rates above 4.0%, while advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.8% and 1.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [13]

财政部表示，将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水 平，实现"只增不减"的总体支出力度和"只强不弱"的重点领域保障。这表明积极的财政政策将继续支持 经济增长和关键领域发展，同时更加注重战略性、结构优化和精准滴灌。此外，财政部还提到财政金融 协同促内需一揽子政策已经陆续发布，旨在通过协同发力，更大力度地"激发民间投资"和"促进居民消 费"。在支持科技创新方面，财政部提出了多维度培育新动能的政策举措。 整体看，在积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策以及财政金融协同发力的推动下，国内经济将呈现结 构更优、内生动能更强的良好发展态势。 工业生产稳中有进，2025年规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%，其中制造业增加值同比增长6.4%，表 现强劲。装备制造业增加值同比增长9.2%，占全部规模以上工业增加值的比重达到36.8%。高技术制造 业增加值同比增长9.4%，已成为引领工业高质量发展的核心驱动力。在新旧动能加速转型期，虽然整 体经济仍受房地产等传统领域调整的影响，但消费市场活力提升、新质生产力加快形成，为经济复苏奠 定了坚实基础。 宏观政策积极发力 1月20日，国新办举办两场 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On January 23, the three major A-share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 4136.16 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3349.50 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3118.4 billion yuan, an increase of 401.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted and consolidated on January 23, closing at 4702.50, a decrease of 21.21 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 23, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1724.1, an increase of 43.3 from the previous day [2]. - On January 23, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1163.3 yuan, an increase of 32.0 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the spot market price at ports is stable. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, and the cost support is still strong. However, due to the off - season of terminal consumption, steel mills' shipments are weak, and their demand for coke is low [4]. - For coking coal, the price of some coals has changed. The supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand has some support, but the procurement enthusiasm of some enterprises has slowed down [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2025/26 global sugar production is expected to reach 189.3 million tons, a strong increase from 180.97 million tons in 2024/25. Affected by this, the US sugar fluctuated lower last Friday. Speculators continued to increase their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options [4]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term increase, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher on the night of January 22. As of January 23, the inventory and futures warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have changed [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 23, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1067.5 cents per bushel, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day. Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the export volume is expected to be large. Domestically, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton on January 23, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous day. The inventory decline provides some support for the price [5]. Live Pigs - On January 23, the main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The supply pressure is increasing in the short term, and the demand has some support, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 23, the palm oil futures price showed a profit - taking trend during the day but jumped up at night. The main contract P2605 closed above 9000 yuan for the first time since October last year. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will launch an official reference price for used cooking oil in Q1 2026 [5]. Shanghai Copper - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102830 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 2.21%, hitting a recent high. The futures are stronger than the spot. The tight supply at the mine end, good macro - data, and a weak US dollar boost the price [5]. Iron Ore - On January 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.21%, closing at 795 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals have decreased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [5]. Asphalt - On January 23, the main contract of asphalt 2603 fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.68%, closing at 3236 yuan. The refinery supply is low, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 771, with a low of 767, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776 on January 23, with a reduction of 3311 lots. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14590 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 28 lots. Textile enterprises are cautious in replenishing raw materials [6]. Steel - The central bank's loose monetary policy provides some support for industrial product prices. However, the steel market needs further implementation of industry - stabilizing policies to improve the supply - demand relationship. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for steel is expected to decline, and the inventory is accumulating [6]. Alumina - The supply of raw materials is increasing, and the price of bauxite is showing a slight weakening trend. The domestic alumina supply is still in excess, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand is stable [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of alumina is at a low level, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The aluminum price is affected by macro - expectations and remains high [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and maintain financial stability, with specific measures outlined for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The PBOC aims for social financing scale and broad money supply to significantly exceed nominal GDP growth by 2025, ensuring reasonable growth in financial totals [1] - As of December, the average weighted interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are approximately 3.1%, indicating low financing costs [1] - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity and match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 2: Support for Key Sectors - Financial institutions will be guided to enhance support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2] - A total of 500 billion yuan will be allocated for service consumption and elderly care re-loans, addressing diverse financial needs in the consumption sector [2] - The re-loan quota for technological innovation and technological transformation will be increased to 1.2 trillion yuan, promoting the development of the bond market's "technology board" [2] Group 3: Financial System Opening and Internationalization - The PBOC will deepen institutional opening in the financial sector and advance the internationalization of the renminbi [3] - Efforts will be made to build a multi-channel, comprehensive, secure, and efficient cross-border payment system for the renminbi [3] - The PBOC will enhance international cooperation in cross-border payments and strengthen regulatory capabilities to ensure national financial security [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The steel market is currently in a weak supply - demand balance, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1][4]. - Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions have weakened. Last week's industrial data was average, with stable production of five major steel products, declining apparent demand, and gradual inventory accumulation. The production of rebar rebounded, apparent demand declined, and both factory and social inventories increased. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with little data change [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3142 | - 21 | - 0.66 | 4363197 | 2373958 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3305 | - 10 | - 0.30 | 1840077 | 1453320 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 795.0 | - 17.0 | - 2.09 | 1409932 | 566469 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1157.0 | - 14.0 | - 1.20 | 5090547 | 657580 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1722.0 | 5.0 | 0.29 | 98670 | 39991 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. Seasonally weak demand pressured steel prices, but as the macro - situation improved and market sentiment stabilized, steel prices rebounded. They first fell and then rose during the week, with the overall center of gravity declining slightly. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3290 (- 10) yuan/ton [4]. - In 2025, national real estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659.89 million square meters, a 10.0% decrease; the new housing construction area was 58.77 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease; the housing completion area was 60.348 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease; the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease; and the sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 8393.7 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease [4]. 3. Industry News - No relevant content provided 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, etc. [8][10][12][14][16][21][22][25][27][33][35][39]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [4][10]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity [4][10]. - There is still room for further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year [4][10]. Financial Sector Focus - Financial institutions will be guided to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [5][12]. - A total of 500 billion yuan will be allocated for consumption and pension-related re-loans, while the quota for technological innovation and transformation re-loans will be increased to 1.2 trillion yuan [5][15]. Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC aims to enhance the accessibility and convenience of financing for small and micro enterprises by increasing the re-loan and rediscount quotas by 500 billion yuan, bringing the total to 4.35 trillion yuan [6][14]. - A dedicated 1 trillion yuan re-loan will be established to specifically support private small and micro enterprises [6][14]. Cross-Border Payment System - The PBOC is committed to developing a multi-channel, comprehensive, secure, and efficient cross-border payment system for the renminbi [8][17]. - There will be an emphasis on international cooperation in cross-border payments and active participation in international financial governance [8][17].