【导读】 LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变，符合市场预期 中国基金报记者 晨曦 刚刚， LPR 公布！ 12 月 22 日 9 时，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025 年 12 月 22 日 贷款市场报价利率（ LPR ）为： 1 年期 LPR 为 3.0%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5% 。以上 LPR 在下一次发布 LPR 之前有效。 贷款市场报价利率由各报价行按公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由全国银行间同业 拆借中心计算得出，为银行贷款提供定价参考。目前， LPR 包括 1 年期和 5 年期以上两个 品种。 LPR 报价行目前包括 20 家银行，每月 20 日（遇节假日顺延） 9 时前，各报价行以 0.05 个百分点为步长，向全国银行间同业拆借中心提交报价，全国银行间同业拆借中心按去掉最 高和最低报价后算术平均，并向 0.05% 的整数倍就近取整计算得出 LPR ，于当日 9 时公 布。 业内人士指出， 12 月 LPR 报价维持不变，符合市场普遍预期。在央行持续推进完善利率调 控框架的背景下，通过改革中期借贷便利（ MLF ）操作时点、招标方式等机制安排， LPR 的定价 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The latest macroeconomic data indicates that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy. The central bank's Party committee meeting points out that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [36][37] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottom - hunting and recovery. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.02%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.03% [5] Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve Changes - As of December 19th, compared with December 12th, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted slightly downward. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively [8] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline. Different types of infrastructure and real estate investment also showed various changes [11] New Home Sales - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales amount decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. In November, new home sales continued to decline significantly [14] Second - Hand Residential Sales Prices - In November, the second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. Second - and third - tier cities also had different degrees of decline [17] Social Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. From January to November, service retail sales increased by 5.4% year - on - year [19][22] Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. The growth rates of different industries also showed changes [24] Product Sales Rate - In November, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.5%, 0.6 percentage points lower year - on - year [27] Service Industry Production Index - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [30] Unemployment Rate - In November, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month [32] Capital Interest Rates - This week, overnight capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.273%, and that of DR007 was 1.443%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.657% [34] Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment and social consumption were lower than market expectations, while export growth exceeded expectations. The inflation level remained moderate, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [36] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [37]

Core Viewpoint - The G20 meeting in Washington D.C. focused on enhancing the role of financial channels and macro policy coordination to promote global economic growth, with China emphasizing its support for multilateralism and the need for domestic policy adjustments in deficit countries [1][2]. Group 1: G20 Meeting Highlights - The G20 meeting took place on December 15-16, with discussions on the 2026 financial channel work arrangements and key topics [1]. - Chinese Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, Xuan Changneng, represented China and highlighted the importance of multilateralism and macro policy coordination [1]. Group 2: China's Position and Proposals - China supports modernizing regulations to improve the business environment while maintaining essential financial regulatory standards like Basel III [1]. - The country is actively implementing the G20 Cross-Border Payment Roadmap to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce transaction costs, adhering to international anti-money laundering standards [1]. - China plans to deepen reforms and expand high-level opening-up, focusing on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market to unleash service consumption potential [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth and high-quality development [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of existing and new policies to support economic growth and stability. Fiscal Policy - The conference calls for the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels to stabilize the macroeconomic environment [2][3]. - Experts highlight the importance of optimizing the structure of fiscal spending to improve policy precision and effectiveness, ensuring that both existing and new policies work in harmony [3][7]. - The fiscal policy aims to enhance its role in stabilizing the macroeconomic landscape, particularly during the current phase of economic recovery and structural adjustment [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The conference proposes to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality development of the real economy [4][5]. - There is a focus on balancing the promotion of economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [4][5]. - Experts suggest that monetary policy should utilize various tools flexibly and efficiently, including potential adjustments to reserve requirements and interest rates, to ensure adequate liquidity [4][5]. Structural Policies - The conference emphasizes guiding financial institutions to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [5][6]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role in directing financial resources towards priority sectors outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][7]. Policy Coordination - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, integrating various economic and non-economic policies into a cohesive framework [7][8]. - Experts advocate for a systematic approach to policy implementation, ensuring that fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies work together to maximize economic impact and stabilize social expectations [7][8].

应对未来风险留有余地,确保财政可持续。 要建立健全增收节支机制, 增强地方自主财力, 兜牢基层"三保"底线。 | 要优化支出结构, 强化国家重大战略的财力保障, 推动更多资金资源投资于人。 统筹用好政府债券资金,更加注重 惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。 要主动靠前发力, 提高资金使用效益, 推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 要严肃财经纪律, 坚持党政机关过紧日子。 要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量。 展会能源参考资金融资书记 品格共识曲 权威人士解读中央经济工作会议精神 66 十五五" 开局之年 宏观政策如何发力 12月13日,中国国际经济交流中心举办"2025 -2026中国经济年会",与会嘉宾围绕"贯彻 落实中央经济工作会议精神,以高质量发展 为'十五五'开好局"主题,就2026年经济工 作的重点任务进行了解读。 中央财办相关负责人: 做好明年经济工作,要坚持稳中求进、提质 增效,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实 提升宏观经济治理效能。 要继续实施更加积极的财政政策 保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总 量。既着眼当前,用好用足政策空间,也为 || 内 ...

围绕中央经济工作会议首次提出的"把促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，朱 光耀认为推动物价合理温和回升，是当前货币政策的重要任务，这一政策指引极具战略意义。他表示， 当前CPI基本维持在稍高于0的水平，PPI已连续38个月处于负值，这一态势对宏观经济运行、企业利润 及财政增值税收入均产生了不利影响。 中央经济工作会议提出要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，如何理解"积极有为"？如何看待更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策这套"组合拳"？财政部原副部长朱光耀在做客中国经济网《深谈》时进 行了深入解读。 面对当前经济发展面临的挑战，朱光耀在访谈中表示，中国拥有庞大的经济存量，我们既要正视挑战， 更要看到"十四五"期间取得的巨大成绩，这些都是未来发展的强大物质基础。在宏观经济政策层面，此 次未提及超常规政策，意味着通过更加积极有为的宏观经济政策组合，包括更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，即可有效应对当前挑战。 谈及财政政策，朱光耀指出，2025年财政赤字率4%左右、地方专项债券发行4.4万亿元的规模，还有1.3 万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元的特别国债，这构成了政策有效落地的现实基 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.47% to 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 down by 1.16% to 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.81% to 22,693.32 points. Caterpillar and Nvidia led the decline, both dropping over 4% [5][11] - In the European market, the major indices showed mixed results, with the DAX down by 0.02% to 24,072.25 points, CAC40 down by 0.25% to 8,086.05 points, and the FTSE 100 up by 0.92% to 9,774.32 points [11] - The Asia-Pacific market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 0.92% to 25,468.78 points, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.26% to 49,512.28 points [11] Economic Indicators - The UK’s November CPI growth rate slowed to 3.2%, the lowest since March, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [11] - Japan's November exports to the US increased by 8.8%, marking the first rise in eight months, while exports to China fell by 2.4% [10][11] - China's fiscal revenue for the first 11 months reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% [12] Company Developments - BYD has initiated comprehensive testing for L3 level autonomous driving in Shenzhen, completing over 150,000 kilometers of real-world verification [17] - Xiaomi held its 2025 ecosystem partner conference, showcasing advancements in its open-source model, MiMo-V2-Flash, which ranks among the top in global open-source models [17] - CATL launched the world's first mass production line for humanoid intelligent robots in its facility, marking a significant milestone in intelligent manufacturing [17] A-Share Announcements - Xichuang Data plans to invest in the development and production of optical modules [17] - Shenzhen Urban Transport plans to raise up to 1.8 billion yuan for research and application of intelligent transportation equipment [17] - Shanghai Airport signed a contract for the transfer of duty-free store operation rights [17]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.468 | 105.840 | 105.840 | 108.005 | 108.025 | 112.14 | 112.33 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 涨跌 | 0.008 | -0.002 | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0.100 | 0.105 | 0.750 | 0.780 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.01% | 0 ...

中央经济工作会议明确要求，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，并提出将"灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充裕""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点 领域"。 一系列部署不仅为2026年货币政策的制定与实施确立了清晰的主基调，也预示了新一年政策发力的 具体路径：在维持流动性合理充裕背景下，通过适时降准降息等总量工具与聚焦重点领域的结构性工具 协同发力，并加强与财政政策的协调配合，共同为经济持续回升向好营造适宜的货币金融环境。 总量工具保持灵活 "要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"的提法，与此前中央政治局会议"继续实施更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策"的定调一脉相承，进一步明确了新一年宏观政策的总体方向。 业界专家普遍认为，"适度宽松"的基调并非简单重复，其内涵在新形势下更为丰富和精准。民生银 行首席经济学家温彬指出，一方面，它意味着货币政策将延续支持性取向，为经济持续复苏与高质量发 展营造必要的流动性环境。另一方面，"适度"二字也强调了对政策力度、节奏和重点的精准把握，注重 在稳增长、防风险、促改革等多重目标中寻求动态平衡，避免"大水漫灌"。 如何实施好适度宽松的货币政 ...

新华社北京12月18日电 《经济参考报》12月18日刊发记者向家莹采写的文章《解码中央经济工作会议 丨货币政策延续"适度宽松" "灵活高效"降准降息可期》。文章称，中央经济工作会议明确要求，"要 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，并提出将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充 裕""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"。 一系列部署不仅为2026年货币政策的制定与实施确立了清晰的主基调，也预示了新一年政策发力的具体 路径：在维持流动性合理充裕背景下，通过适时降准降息等总量工具与聚焦重点领域的结构性工具协同 发力，并加强与财政政策的协调配合，共同为经济持续回升向好营造适宜的货币金融环境。 总量工具保持灵活 "要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"的提法，与此前中央政治局会议"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适 度宽松的货币政策"的定调一脉相承，进一步明确了新一年宏观政策的总体方向。 业界专家普遍认为，"适度宽松"的基调并非简单重复，其内涵在新形势下更为丰富和精准。民生银行首 席经济学家温彬指出，一方面，它意味着货币政策将延续支持性取向，为经济持续复苏与高质量发展营 造必要的流动性环境。另 ...