1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical tensions and potential inflation, the precious metals market is expected to remain strong. Gold and silver prices are likely to show an oscillating and strengthening pattern in the near future, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions are escalating as the US President Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials, asked US citizens to leave Iran, and was briefed on military and covert operation options against Iran. In terms of inflation, the US CPI and core CPI in December 2025 remained unchanged from the previous value, but the data's reference value for predicting the Fed's future policy path may be weakened. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 13, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1026.86 yuan/gram and closed at 1027.18 yuan/gram, a change of 0.09% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 1028.82 yuan/gram and closed at 1031.00 yuan/gram, up 0.37% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 20,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,004.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,141,819 lots, and the open interest was 334,660 lots. During the night session, it opened at 21,431 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,943 yuan/kilogram, up 4.47% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.175%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-2 year spread was 0.647%, also unchanged [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,633 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 4,147 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 370,792 lots, a decrease of 12.15% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 6,499 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,632 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,382,636 lots, a decrease of 3.72% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,070.80 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,348 tons, an increase of 40 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 13, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -546.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 48.90, a change of -0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 54.57, a change of -2.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 58,002 kilograms, a change of 1.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 700,304 kilograms, a change of 70.30% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 3,000 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show an oscillating and strengthening pattern in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2602 contract may be between 1010 yuan/gram and 1050 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Inflation Data - The US December 2025 CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and previous values[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices down by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.8% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.18%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.2[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with a near 0% probability for January and less than 30% for March[3] - The market anticipates approximately 2.1 rate cuts throughout 2026[3] Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - Recent developments in the nomination of the new Fed chair have created uncertainty, with close probabilities for candidates Waller and Hassett[4] - Current chair Powell faces criminal charges, leading to discontent among Republican senators, which may impact the nomination process[4]

Group 1: US Stock Market - The US stock market experienced a decline in late trading, with the Dow Jones falling by 402.46 points, a decrease of 0.81%, closing at 49187.74 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 67.74 points, down 0.29%, at 23666.16 points; and the S&P 500 fell by 23.05 points, a decline of 0.33%, ending at 6954.22 points [3] - The decline in the US stock market is attributed to various factors, including a slightly weaker labor market reflected in the December employment report and a focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in December, meeting expectations [3] - Economic uncertainty regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has led to a fierce debate among market participants, contributing to the stock market's decline [4] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a correction after several days of gains, but UBS remains optimistic about the A-share outlook, citing three supporting factors: improved corporate earnings growth, attractive valuations, and continued inflow of domestic and foreign capital [6] - The market environment is expected to be more favorable in the first half of the year, with a focus on earnings realization in the second half; overall liquidity is anticipated to support upward valuation trends in the A-share market [6] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus area, with advancements in artificial intelligence and biopharmaceuticals expected to enhance the performance and valuation of related companies [6] Group 3: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices have been on the rise, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.29% to $4518.4 per ounce, marking a weekly gain of 4.34% [8] - Factors supporting the rise in precious metals include geopolitical risks, uncertainty in US policies, and ongoing improvements in global liquidity, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8] - Silver and other precious metals are also performing well, with both nominal and real prices of silver reaching historical highs; the ongoing improvement in global liquidity suggests that the upward trend in silver prices is far from over [8] Group 4: Commodity Market - The commodity market is experiencing price volatility, with copper prices surging by 22% within a month, nearing $14,000 per ton; Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for the first half of the year but warns of potential corrections in the second quarter [10] - The fluctuations in copper prices reflect changes in market supply and demand, driven by US stockpiling and the AI boom, while supply is affected by mining and transportation factors [10] - The current period is characterized by cyclical fluctuations in the correlation between commodity indices, with expectations of continued divergence in the first half of 2026, potentially shifting towards convergence later in the year [10]

Group 1 - Several A-share gold mining companies have released performance forecasts, indicating significant growth in earnings for 2025 due to a substantial increase in gold prices [1] - Zijin Mining expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold anticipates a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70% to 81% [1] Group 2 - Despite a slight decline in COMEX gold futures by 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce, the overall demand for gold remains robust, supported by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [1] - Analysts suggest that persistent inflation, as indicated by the latest U.S. inflation report, may drive investors towards precious metals to hedge against inflation, potentially increasing prices over time [2] - The report highlights that new investors may act before silver prices exceed $100 per ounce, emphasizing the importance of including gold and silver in investment portfolios, albeit limited to 10% or less [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price [2][7]. - Zinc: Volatility at high levels has increased [2][10]. - Lead: A decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [2][17]. - Aluminum: Operating strongly [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: Trading within a range [2][25]. - Palladium: Trading in a narrow range [2][25]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations [2][29]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel has raised the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a 0.14% increase. Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4594.40 with a - 0.31% decrease [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 197,421, a decrease of 40,906 from the previous day, and the position was 103,633, a decrease of 12,817 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 98,283 kg, an increase of 630 kg from the previous day [4]. - **News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The University of Michigan's January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have ordered a plan to "invade" Greenland [4][6]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a 0.39% increase, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a 4.14% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 136,532, a decrease of 29,618 from the previous day, and the position was 72,853, a decrease of 7,320 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 630,066 kg, a decrease of 19577 kg from the previous day [4]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290 with a - 1.45% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 103540 with a 1.22% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,157 with a - 0.12% decrease [7]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the position was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 [7]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day. The LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% [7]. - **News**: US December core CPI was only 2.6% year - on - year, at a four - year low. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, driven by the AI and defense sectors [7][9]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24280 with a 0.43% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3213.5 with a 2.05% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 188273, an increase of 90333 from the previous day, and the position was 111306, an increase of 9828 [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 33613 tons, a decrease of 1728 tons from the previous day, and the LME Zinc inventory was 106900 tons, an increase of 100 tons [10]. - **News**: US core inflation slowed down in December, and the market has low expectations for a rate cut this month [10][11]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17360 with a - 0.66% decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2053 with a 0.32% increase [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 41289, an increase of 5747 from the previous day, and the position was 64233, an increase of 698 [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 21013 tons, an increase of 4524 tons from the previous day, and the LME Lead inventory was 218925 tons, a decrease of 2525 tons [14]. - **News**: US December core CPI was at a four - year low, and Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials [14][15]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 379,330 with a 0.64% increase, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 49,145 with a 1.96% increase [18]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 470,223, an increase of 187,240 from the previous day, and the position was 42,853, a decrease of 7,782 [18]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,245, a decrease of 88 from the previous day, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, an increase of 25. The cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [18]. - **News**: Global central banks are drafting a statement to support Fed Chairman Powell. Baichuan Intelligence plans to launch an IPO in 2027 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24375, a decrease of 275 from the previous day, and the LME Aluminum 3M closed at 299 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 825553, an increase of 170542 from the previous day, and the position was 370981, a decrease of 8100 [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 14.90 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.40 million tons [21]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2780, a decrease of 144 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 964869, an increase of 97851 from the previous day, and the position was 553364, an increase of 123459 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Price**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23165, a decrease of 175 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 27925, an increase of 10659 from the previous day, and the position was 22099, an increase of 109 [21]. - **News**: After Powell was sued, the New York Fed President warned against undermining the central bank's independence. CME changed the margin setting method for precious metals contracts [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 605.05 with a - 2.85% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 32,647 kg, a decrease of 7,907 from the previous day, and the position was 38.440 kg, a decrease of 861 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345 ounces, a decrease of 409 from the previous day [25]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 483.25 with a - 4.33% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 22,262 kg, a decrease of 1,916 from the previous day, and the position was 15.204 kg, a decrease of 59 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908 ounces, a decrease of 398 from the previous day [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 138,450, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,277,690, an increase of 194,488 from the previous day [30]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 981, an increase of 9 from the previous day [30]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,790, a decrease of 65 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 347,554, a decrease of 9,430 from the previous day [30]. - **News**: The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities [30][31].

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 99.237, while spot silver opened at $86.90/oz and is currently around $88.69/oz, indicating a rise in silver prices due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - On January 13, the dollar index rose by 0.29% to close at 99.186, while spot silver increased by 2.06% to $86.91/oz, reaching a historical high of $89.12 before retreating [1] - The upcoming economic data to watch includes the US November retail sales month-on-month and the November PPI data [1] Group 2 - As of January 13, silver ETF holdings decreased by 26.79 tons to 16,321.16 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The US CPI growth rate remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly below expectations, leading to comments from Trump advocating for significant interest rate cuts by Powell [2] - The ADP weekly employment report indicates that private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025 [3] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9 [5] - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $85.362, hitting a low of $83.348, and then rising to a high of $89.124 before closing at $86.891 [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Platinum is expected to trade in a range, while palladium is likely to experience narrow - range fluctuations [1] - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and the trend intensity of palladium is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 605.05 with a - 2.85% decline; gold - exchange platinum was at 599.38 with a - 2.21% decline; New York platinum main - contract (previous day) was 2338.00 with a - 0.99% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) was 2331.20 with a - 0.76% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 483.25 with a - 4.33% decline; RMB spot palladium was at 447.00 with no change; New York palladium main - contract (previous day) was 1887.00 with a - 1.28% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) was 1831.35 with a - 1.06% decline [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 32,647 kg (down 7907 kg from the previous day), and open interest was 38,440 kg (down 861 kg). NYMEX platinum trading volume was 44,452 kg (up 2211 kg), and open interest was 105,349 kg (up 1149 kg). Guangdong palladium trading volume was 22,262 kg (down 1916 kg), and open interest was 15,204 kg (down 59 kg). NYMEX palladium trading volume was 22,245 kg (up 7340 kg), and open interest was 57,759 kg (up 292 kg) [1] - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,278,284 (down 4597), and palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,191,890 (up 10,833) [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,345 (down 409), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 210,908 (down 398) [1] - **Price Spreads**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 5.67 (up 4.19 from the previous day); Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was - 0.10 (down 1.20); buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 7.44 (down 0.21). The spread between Guangdong platinum main - contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 14.40 (down 12.89). The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 36.25 (up 21.85); Guangdong palladium 2606 to 2610 spread was - 3.45 (up 1.75); buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 6.00 (down 0.26). The spread between Guangdong palladium main - contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 19 (down 21.58) [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.18 with a 0.05% increase; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.97 with a - 0.06% decline; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.97 with a - 0.15% decline; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.90 with a - 0.06% decline [1] Macro and Industry News - US CPI growth remained stable in December, and core CPI was slightly lower than expected. Trump praised the inflation data and called on Powell to cut interest rates significantly. The Fed's mouthpiece said the December CPI was unlikely to change the current wait - and - see attitude [4] - ADP weekly employment report: In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week [4] - Trump's interview was broadcast this morning, focusing on Iran, the economy, and Powell [4] - Kim Yo - jong responded to South Korea's North Korea policy, saying that the so - called "improving relations" was a delusion [4] - Takaichi Sanae expressed her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections on the 23rd [4] - Fed's Musalem said there were few reasons for further policy easing in the short term and still believed that inflation risks would be more persistent than expected [4] - The US relaxed restrictions on NVIDIA's H200 chip exports to China [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions for each commodity [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different performances, and investors have almost erased their bets on a January rate cut. The trend intensity is 1 [7][9] - **Silver**: It has reached a new high. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [7] - **Platinum**: It is in range consolidation. The prices of platinum - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] - **Palladium**: It has a narrow - range fluctuation. The prices of palladium - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] Base Metals - **Copper**: The large increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price. Although the prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have declined, the cancelled warrant ratio has increased significantly. The trend intensity is 1 [10][13] - **Zinc**: The high - level volatility has increased. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][17] - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [18][19] - **Tin**: It has broken through the historical high. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased significantly, and the trend intensity is 1 [21][23] - **Aluminum**: It is in a strong - running state. The prices of domestic aluminum futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Alumina**: It continues to explore the bottom. The prices of domestic alumina futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [25][26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The prices of domestic cast aluminum alloy futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it runs in a wide - range fluctuation. The prices of domestic nickel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [32][37] - **Stainless Steel**: The increase in nickel - iron raises the oscillation center of gravity, and the market bets on Indonesian policies. The prices of domestic stainless - steel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The prices of domestic carbonate - lithium futures and related products have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [38][40] - **Industrial Silicon**: The downstream production has been cut, and the demand has decreased marginally. The prices of domestic industrial - silicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [41][44] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the factory's quotation. The prices of domestic polysilicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [42][44] - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is relatively high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up. The prices of domestic iron - ore futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [45] - **Rebar**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic rebar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic hot - rolled - coil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic silicon - ferrosilicon futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic manganese - ferrosilicon futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Coke**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coke futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Coking Coal**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coking - coal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a narrow - range adjustment in the short term. The prices of domestic steam - coal futures and spot have different performances, and no trend intensity is mentioned [58] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic log futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [60][63] - **Para - Xylene**: The cost support is relatively strong. The prices of domestic para - xylene futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **PTA**: The polyester plans to cut production, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The prices of domestic PTA futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **MEG**: The downward valuation space is limited. The prices of domestic MEG futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **Rubber**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [72][73] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic synthetic - rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [76][78] - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the spot price has increased, with the basis turning positive. The prices of domestic LLDPE futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [79][80] - **PP**: The downstream export rush supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong. The prices of domestic PP futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [81][83] - **Caustic Soda**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic caustic - soda futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [84][87] - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic pulp futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [89][91] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable. The prices of domestic glass futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [94][95] - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The prices of domestic methanol futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [97][100] - **Urea**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic urea futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [101][104] - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices of domestic styrene futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [105][108] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of domestic soda - ash futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [109][111] - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and the geopolitical disturbance is strong. The prices of domestic LPG futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [114][119] - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand has tightened, and the trend is strong. The prices of domestic propylene futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [115][119] - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic PVC futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [123][124] - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical factor drives up the price, and there is still support below. The prices of domestic fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has continued to rebound. The prices of domestic low - sulfur - fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic short - fiber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic bottle - chip futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should be established at high prices. The prices of domestic offset - printing - paper futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [147][148] - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term. The prices of domestic pure - benzene futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [152][154] - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to narrow. The prices of domestic palm - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil. The prices of domestic soybean - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Meal**: It may follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak. The prices of domestic soybean - meal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [162][164] - **Soybeans**: The spot price is stable and strong, and the market may oscillate. The prices of domestic soybean futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [162][164] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of domestic corn futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [165][168] - **Sugar**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic sugar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [169][172] - **Cotton**: It continues the adjustment trend. The prices of domestic cotton futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [174][177] - **Eggs**: The spot market is profitable, but the sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened. The prices of domestic egg futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [180][181] - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply is further postponed. The prices of domestic hog futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [183][185] - **Peanuts**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic peanut futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [188][191] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic container - freight - index (European - line) futures have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [128][143]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.21 points, a decrease of 0.80%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.1% and the S&P 500 declined by 0.19% [1] - Bank stocks experienced a widespread decline, with the KBW Bank Index down by 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase falling by 4.2% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, while AMD increased by over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all fell by more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped by 1.86%, with notable declines in Pinduoduo (over 5%), NIO and Xpeng (over 3%), and JD.com and Li Auto (over 1%) [1] Commodity Market - The FTSE China A50 Index futures closed down by 0.01% at 15,398 points [2] - Crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.90%, closing at 450.40 RMB per barrel [2] - Spot silver increased by 2.11%, reaching $86.92, with an intraday surge exceeding 4% [3] - Both New York and Brent crude oil prices rose by over 2% [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 2.6% [8] - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for that month [8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that the December inflation data may contain "technical noise" due to the previous government shutdown, potentially affecting its predictive value for future Federal Reserve policy [8] - The market currently anticipates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem indicated that inflation-related risks are diminishing, and he expects prices to align more closely with the Fed's target later this year [9] - Musalem stated that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned to address risks related to both price stability and employment [9] - Investors believe the likelihood of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting is low, but anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [9] Venezuela Market Developments - Following significant political changes in Venezuela, the country's benchmark stock index surged over 130% since January 3, driven by expectations of economic recovery and U.S. government proposals for oil revitalization [9][10] - The U.S. White House has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela to restore its oil extraction infrastructure [10] - Teucrium, an ETF issuer, has applied to establish what is believed to be the first ETF focused on companies with exposure to Venezuela, indicating a potential opening for global capital into this previously closed market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump continues to pressure the Fed and Powell, but it may be difficult to achieve results. If Powell or the Fed yields, it may bring further turmoil to the US and global financial systems [7]. - Tin prices have broken through historical highs and are expected to continue rising, with the first target at 400,000 yuan/ton and the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Crude oil may have a 2 - 4 dollars/barrel rebound space in the short - term, but there is still significant downward pressure in the first half of the year, and it may test 50 dollars/barrel [11]. - Double - offset paper has alleviated the warehouse receipt contradiction and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pre - market Focus - Trump criticizes Powell and calls for a large - scale interest rate cut. The Fed's independence is under threat, and the market is waiting to see if there will be an interest rate cut this month [7]. 3.2. Top Picks by the Director 3.2.1. Tin - Tin prices have reached a new high. Supply is tight, inventory is low, and price transmission to downstream is smooth. Future prices are expected to rise [8][9]. 3.2.2. Crude Oil - Short - term price may rise due to geopolitical risks and good spot market transactions, but there is downward pressure in the first half of the year [11]. 3.2.3. Double - offset Paper - Warehouse receipt quantity has increased, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, supply is redundant, and demand is weak [13]. 3.3. Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1. Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. - Silver: Reached a new high [15][20]. 3.3.2. Base Metals - Copper: LME cancelled warehouse receipts have increased, supporting the price [23]. - Zinc: High - level volatility has increased [26]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price [29]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [32]. - Aluminum: Running strongly; Alumina: Continuing to bottom out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Platinum: Range - bound; Palladium: Narrow - range oscillation [39]. - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a game, with wide - range oscillation [43]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron has raised the oscillation center, and the market is betting on Indonesian policies [44]. 3.3.3. Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium: Oscillating strongly, pay attention to market sentiment changes [49]. 3.3.4. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and demand is decreasing marginally [52]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to factory quotes [53]. 3.3.5. Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Valuation is high, be cautious about chasing up [56]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Coke: High - level oscillation [67]. - Coking coal: High - level oscillation [67]. - Steam coal: Supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short - term [69]. 3.3.6. Forestry Products - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [72]. 3.3.7. Chemicals - p - Xylene: Cost support is strong [76]. - PTA: Polyester plans to cut production, pay attention to the implementation strength [76]. - MEG: Valuation has limited downward space [76]. - Rubber: Wide - range oscillation [84]. - Synthetic rubber: High - level oscillation [88]. - LLDPE: Standard product production ratio remains low, and spot prices are rising [91]. - PP: Downstream export rush supports propylene, and PP cost support is strong [93]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [96]. - Pulp: Oscillating [101]. - Glass: Original sheet price is stable [106]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [109]. - Urea: Oscillating [113]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [117]. - Soda ash: Spot market changes little [121]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [126]. - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend [127]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [135]. - Fuel oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, and there is still support below [138]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Following the rise, the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [138]. 3.3.8. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Running weakly [140]. 3.3.9. Textiles - Short - fiber: Oscillating strongly, hold long TA and short PF positions [157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, hold long - short spread positions [157]. 3.3.10. Paper Products - Offset printing paper: Short at high prices [160]. 3.3.11. Agricultural Products - Pure benzene: Short - term oscillation [165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and POGO is expected to shrink [169]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, pay attention to the spill - over effect of crude oil [169]. - Soybean meal: May follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak [175]. - Soybeans: Spot prices are stable and strong, and the market may oscillate [175]. - Corn: Pay attention to spot prices [178]. - Sugar: Running weakly [182]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [186]. - Eggs: Spot is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [192]. - Hogs: Demand has negative feedback, and supply release is postponed [195]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [199].