Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still an expectation of long - term easing. Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3 1. Variety view reference - Financial futures index sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1] 2. Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures index sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back yesterday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Considering the strong resilience of short - term macro data and the supply - side pressure of intensive Treasury bond issuance in the first quarter, Treasury bond futures prices are under pressure. In the long run, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and the support for Treasury bond futures still exists [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle [2] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policy under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially leaves office [2] - Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the context of large price fluctuations, and not to open new long or short positions, while being aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines [2] Summary by Related Content Market Quotes and Data - On January 8, 2026, Shanghai gold fell 0.31% to 1002.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.99% to 19020.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4470.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 78.45 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.15%, and the US dollar index was 98.73 [1] - The global major silver ETF holdings continued to decline. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.4 tons yesterday and another 18.33 tons today. The BCOM commodity index rebalancing time is approaching, and major exchanges have raised margin levels, leading the market to focus on the risk of silver price decline from high levels [1] - The US employment data released yesterday was all weaker than expected. The number of ADP employed people in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTS job openings in November was 7.146 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.6 million and the previous value of 7.67 million. After the data release, the upward range of gold and silver prices was limited [1] Price and Volume Data of Gold - COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 4467.10 US dollars/ounce, down 0.86% from the previous day, and its trading volume increased by 17.87% to 197,100 lots, while the position decreased by 2.08% to 481,900 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1132 tons [5] - LBMA gold's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 4438.00 US dollars/ounce, down 1.17% from the previous day [5] - SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 5.79% to 3.26 million lots, the position decreased by 0.68% to 3.163 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97.65 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.28% to 50.555 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 63.13 tons, up 42.67% from the previous day, and the position decreased by 3.98% to 190.92 tons [5] Price and Volume Data of Silver - COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 77.98 US dollars/ounce, down 3.99% from the previous day, the position increased by 1.08% to 157,400 lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.77% to 13,864 tons [5] - LBMA silver's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 78.99 US dollars/ounce, up 0.65% from the previous day [5] - SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 12.02% to 32.443 million lots, the position decreased by 1.08% to 6.752 million lots, the inventory decreased by 4.82% to 553.43 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.90% to 35.166 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 823.59 tons, down 6.05% from the previous day, and the position increased by 1.33% to 3,033,278 tons [5] Price Structure and Spread Data - The report provides data on the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, London gold - COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, Au(T + D) - Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, London silver - COMEX silver, Shanghai silver, and Ag(T + D) - Shanghai silver [20][21][33][35] - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 2.72 yuan/gram (- 12.10 US dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 1.96 yuan/gram (- 8.72 US dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 1835.33 yuan/kilogram (8.16 US dollars/ounce), and the data of the SGE - LBMA silver spread was also provided [49]

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘集体低开，早盘上涨收复失地，午后震荡回落，特别在 股指收涨后，较大幅度回落，截至收盘 30年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603下跌 0.44%， | | | | | 10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.08%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 286 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 5288 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 5002 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率保持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.26%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.46%，上一交易日加 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on January 8, 2026, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the third consecutive month of equal-scale operations [2] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On January 8, 2026, the PBOC will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender, multi-price reverse repo operation amounting to 1.1 trillion yuan with a term of 3 months (90 days) [2] - The operation on January 8 will match the maturity of 1.1 trillion yuan of 3-month reverse repos, indicating a continuation of the same scale for the third month [2] - Additionally, there is an expectation of another 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repo operation in January, with a likelihood of an increased amount [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the PBOC will utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market throughout January [2] - The overall monetary policy for January reflects a continuation of a "moderately accommodative" stance, aimed at ensuring sufficient liquidity [2] - There is also a potential for an additional 200 billion yuan MLF operation due to upcoming maturities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system through a series of monetary policy tools, including a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation set for January 8, which is a continuation of previous operations aimed at ensuring liquidity stability in the financial market [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - On January 8, the PBOC will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of three months, marking the third consecutive month of maintaining the same amount for this operation [1]. - The 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 8 corresponds to the same amount maturing on that day, indicating a strategy of rolling over liquidity support [1]. - The PBOC has a total of 600 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos maturing in January, suggesting a continued commitment to ensuring liquidity remains abundant [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Management Tools - The PBOC has established a comprehensive set of liquidity management tools that can effectively respond to short-term fluctuations in fiscal revenue and government bond issuance [1]. - China's liquidity tool system aligns with international practices, featuring various tools such as automatic pledge financing, reverse repos, medium-term lending facilities (MLF), and regular lending facilities (SLF) [2]. - The management logic of these tools is consistent with international standards, focusing on banks as primary counterparties and utilizing high liquidity, low-risk assets like government bonds for collateral [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The current ample liquidity in China's banking system is crucial for stabilizing the macroeconomic environment and ensuring the healthy operation of financial markets [1]. - Recent innovations in monetary policy tools, such as including government bond trading in the toolkit, are expected to enhance the effectiveness of liquidity management [1][2]. - The multi-faceted liquidity tool system reflects the professionalism and effectiveness of China's monetary policy, creating a conducive liquidity environment for high-quality economic development [2].

1月7日，A股三大指数再度集体上涨。截至1月7日收盘，上证指数收涨0.05%，报4085.77点， 盘中一度触及4098.78点，达到2015年以来的新高，意味着A股上涨行情从2025年向2026年顺 利延续。 此轮上涨行情起于2024年9月底中央出台的一系列增量政策提振市场信心，随后的2025年春 节，"DeepSeek时刻"点燃了A股行情，全球投资者开始关注到中国在科技领域发展的超预期发 展，从而推动了中国资产重估。 科技股成为推动A股本轮行情的结构性的支柱力量。 从行业来看，2025年8月电子行业市值首 次超过银行业，成为股票市场第一大行业。市场整体"含科量"超过25%，从全年涨幅看，创业 板指上涨49.57%，科创50上涨35.92%，北证50上涨38.81%，均高于上证指数、深证成指。 2026年元旦假期以来连续三个交易日的上涨，也主要是由科技股推动。 2026年，随着中国企 业在半导体、创新药等领域以及其他新兴产业的快速发展，科技类上市公司将继续成为A股上 涨行情的内在强大驱动力。 推动A股上涨的另一大因素是不断完善的市场监管体系以及政策支持。 自2023年开始，中国更 加重视活跃资本市场与提振市 ...

Group 1 - Several small and medium-sized banks have recently lowered their deposit interest rates, with some banks reducing the one-year fixed deposit rate by up to 30 basis points (BP) [1][2] - For example, Puyang Zhongyuan Village Bank announced a reduction in various fixed deposit rates effective January 7, 2026, with three-month, six-month, and one-year rates decreasing by 30 BP to 1.05%, 1.25%, and 1.40% respectively [2] - Anhui Xin'an Bank and Qing'an Rural Commercial Bank also announced reductions in their deposit rates, with Qing'an reducing rates for various terms by 5 to 30 BP [2][3] Group 2 - The overall trend for deposit rates is downward, influenced by the current macroeconomic environment and the expectation of further monetary easing, including potential cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates [4][5] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to keep social financing costs low, which may lead to lower loan rates for residents and businesses [4] - Analysts predict that as loan rates decrease, deposit rates will also continue to decline, reflecting ongoing pressure on banks to manage their funding costs [5]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined key priorities for 2026, including the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy and the deepening of financial reforms and opening-up measures [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC aims to promote high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy [1] - The bank plans to flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The goal is to ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 2: Financial Reform and Opening-Up - The PBOC has made several deployments to deepen financial reform and enhance openness, including optimizing the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanisms [2] - Support for the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center and the maintenance of Hong Kong's status as an international financial hub are emphasized [2] - The bank aims to facilitate the use of the renminbi in trade and investment through central bank currency swaps and improve cross-border financial services [2] - There is an initiative to welcome more eligible foreign entities to issue panda bonds and to expand the scope of rapid payment systems [2]

中国人民银行1月7日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月8日，中国人民银行将以固定 数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。 （来源：经济参考报） 由于本月有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，因此此次操作将实现等量对冲。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析指出，本月3个月期买断式逆回购未加量续做，或与金融机构资金需 求的期限结构等有关，不代表央行降低流动性投放力度。本月还有6000亿6个月期买断式逆回购到期， 预计央行本月还会开展一次6个月期买断式操作，加量续做的可能性比较大。这意味着1月两个期限品种 的买断式逆回购将合计延续加量续做，连续第8个月向市场注入中期流动性。 业内人士表示，为保障重点领域重大项目资金需求，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，2026年新增地方政府 债务限额已提前下达，这意味着2026年1月会有一定规模的政府债券开闸发行；另外，2025年10月5000 亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕后，还会继续带动今年1月配套贷款较快增长，放大信贷"开门红"效 应。以上都会在一定程度上带来资金面收紧效应。 在此背景下，王青判断，着眼于应对潜 ...