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Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Report - Date: April 8, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, and after short - term fluctuations end, investors can enter the market to go long. Due to industrial demand pressure, silver is relatively weak. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with medium positions, avoid chasing highs and shorting [4][5]. Content Summary by Section Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's reciprocal tariff rate far exceeded market expectations but exempted gold and silver. China implemented strong counter - measures immediately, and the EU and Canada also firmly opposed. Global trade system changes caused financial market fluctuations. Cross - border funds flowed back to the US, pushing up the US dollar exchange rate. Liquidity risks hit global stocks and commodities including precious metals. Silver fell more than gold due to industrial demand concerns. On April 7, Asian session, London gold found initial support around $2970/ounce and rebounded above $3000/ounce. The depreciation of the RMB made the decline of domestic gold and silver relatively smaller [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 740.15 | 729.05 | 702.85 | 718.82 | - 2.88 | 365,535 | - 23,578 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,313 | 7,844 | 7,554 | 7,647 | - 8.00 | 856,507 | - 33,756 | | Gold T + D | 738.97 | 726.03 | 700.25 | 715.15 | - 3.22 | 200,084 | 14,906 | | Silver T + D | 8,263 | 7,805 | 7,346 | 7,616 | - 7.83 | 4,112,944 | 238,532 | [5] Mid - line Market - After the hawkish interest rate cut by the Fed on December 18, 2024, gold prices started a new round of rise due to factors such as festival consumption expectations in China and India,避险 demand caused by Trump's 2.0 new policy uncertainties, rising short - term stagflation risks in the US economy, weakening of the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields, and increasing expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. On February 24, London gold set a new record of $2956/ounce. At the end of February, it corrected to $2832/ounce and found support near the lower track of the medium - term bull market channel since March 2024. In March, due to factors like rising US economic recession risks, the Fed slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction, geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East heating up again, and Trump's tariff weaponization gradually taking effect, London gold rose again and broke through the $3000/ounce mark on March 17. Since late March, the upward momentum of gold prices has weakened but remained above $3000/ounce [5]. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - China imposed a 34% tariff on all US products and introduced a series of measures including export control of some rare earths. The EU will seek a unified front against Trump's tariff measures, which may lead to an early escalation of the global trade war [16]. - Thousands of protesters gathered in Washington and across the US, part of about 1200 demonstration activities, expected to be the largest single - day protest since Trump and Musk's efforts to reform the government and expand presidential power [16]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the scale of Trump's new tariffs was larger than expected, and the economic impact including inflation and slowdown in economic growth might also be greater. He said it was too early to know the Fed's response and that the Fed had time to wait for more data [16]. - The US added 228,000 non - farm jobs in March, far exceeding expectations. However, Trump's comprehensive import tariffs may weaken the resilience of the labor market in the coming months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year [17].

Group 1 - The recent announcement of comprehensive import tariffs by Trump has triggered significant volatility in global markets, with gold prices experiencing fluctuations, including a drop below $3000 before recovering [1] - As of April 7, 2025, spot gold is reported at $3034.33 per ounce, while COMEX gold is at $3055.6 per ounce, indicating a mixed performance in the gold market [1] - The newly implemented tariffs include a baseline 10% tariff on all goods and differentiated tariffs on approximately 60 trade partners, effective from April 6 and April 9, respectively [1] Group 2 - The shift in U.S. trade policy has increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while creating uncertainty that pressures equity markets, as evidenced by a nearly 4.4% drop in NASDAQ futures following the tariff announcement [2] - Atlanta Fed predicts a contraction of 3.7% in U.S. GDP for the first quarter, highlighting the potential economic impact of the new tariffs [2] - The acceleration of de-dollarization and rising U.S. government debt and credit risks may exert continuous pressure on the dollar, providing support for gold prices in the medium to long term [2][3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook suggests that significant tariff increases and retaliatory measures from trade partners could lead to recession risks globally, with potential negative impacts on the U.S. economy and its fiscal deficit [3] - Despite short-term volatility, the bullish trend for gold remains intact due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Trump's reciprocal tariff measures has significantly increased global financial and trade risks, with the overall tariff collection level exceeding expectations. This has led to a further decline in the US stock market, and the risk - aversion demand is favorable for the gold price. As an industrial metal, the silver price is relatively weak, and the gold - silver ratio has further increased [2]. - Fed Governor Kugler's hawkish stance and better - than - expected US ADP employment data have reduced the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. However, the economic and trade risks brought by the US tariff policy are the main trading logic in the market. Precious metals will still have price resilience, and gold with stronger risk - aversion attributes will outperform silver. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 722 - 750 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver, it is 8146 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) dropped 0.14% to 734.40 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) dropped 0.13% to 8396.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.58% to 3184.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 1.10% to 34.27 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.2%, and the US dollar index was at 103.12 [2]. - The London gold spot rose more than the New York gold this morning, and the spread between New York and London gold narrowed to 24.8 dollars/ounce [2]. 3.2 Policy and Economic Data - Fed Governor Kugler believes that the process of inflation returning to the 2% policy target has stalled, and as long as the risk of rising inflation exists, she supports maintaining the current policy interest rate [3]. - The US ADP employment number in March was 155,000, higher than the expected 115,000 and the previous value of 84,000, which has reduced the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy [3]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - The economic and trade risks brought by the US tariff policy are the main trading logic in the market. Even if the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has declined, precious metals will still have price resilience. Gold with stronger risk - aversion attributes will outperform silver [3]. - It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 722 - 750 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver, it is 8146 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Comparison - A detailed comparison of precious metal data on April 2, 2025, and April 1, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and other indicators of COMEX gold and silver, LBMA gold and silver, SHFE gold and silver, and Au(T + D), Ag(T + D), as well as the holding and trading data of gold and silver ETFs, is provided [6].

来看，美元信用弱化为主线，看好金价中枢上移。白银兼具金融和工业属性，近年来光伏用 银增长带动供需格局紧张，银价弹性相对更高，价格有望创历史新高。重点推荐：万国黄金 集团、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、湖南黄金，关注中国黄金国 际，白银标的推荐盛达资源、兴业银锡。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。（民生证券 邱祖学, 张弋清 ） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风 险自担。 民生证券近日发布有色金属周报：工业金属高位震荡，金价再创历史新高。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（03/21-03/28）上证综指下跌0.4%，沪深300指数上涨0.01%，SW有色指数上涨 0.28%，贵金属COMEX黄金上涨2.97%，COMEX白银上涨3.85%。工业金属LME铝、铜、 锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-2.84%、-0.70%、-2.60%、-0.22%、1.17%、4.35%；工业金属 库存LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变 动-3.69%、-5.20%、-8.42%、-0.45%、-0.19%、-18.88%。 工业金属：关税担忧刺激 ...

当地时间 3 月 31 日，据俄罗斯"消息报"援引俄直接投资基金总裁德米特里耶夫的话说，俄美已经启动 有关俄罗斯稀土金属项目的讨论。德米特里耶夫表示，美国企业对潜在的合作协议已表现出兴趣，预计 俄美代表将于四月中旬在沙特首都利雅得举行新一轮会谈。报道称，俄美双方重启对话后不仅讨论政治 议题，还涉及经济合作等领域。 重点品种： 股指、原油、黄金 首席点评： 政策逐步落地，宏观氛围向好 按照党中央和国务院决策部署， 2025 年，财政部将发行首批特别国债 5000 亿元，积极支持中国银行、 中国建设银行、交通银行、中国邮政储蓄银行补充核心一级资本。此次资本补充工作将按照市场化、法 治化原则稳妥推进。 原油： sc 夜盘下跌 0.68% 。在特朗普对委内瑞拉原油买家加征关税的消息宣布后，全球最大的综合型 炼油厂印度信实工业公司将停止从委内瑞拉进口原油。国际能源署表示，随着经济复苏后，世界石油需 求增长放缓，以及航空和石化原料需求导致的石油消费，石油在全球能源需求中的份额在 2024 年首次 降至 30% 以下。特朗普最新宣布从下周起对进口汽车和轻型卡车征收 25% 关税对石油需求的影响。人 们认为，这可能会推高汽车 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant downturn with over 4,300 stocks declining, resulting in a median drop of 1.42% across the exchanges, indicating a challenging day for investors [3] - The market is influenced by external factors, including tariff increases by Trump, which have led to a collective adjustment in the Asia-Pacific markets [3] Sector Performance - The chemical sector, which had previously shown strong performance, faced a sharp decline, with Jiangtian Chemical dropping over 10% and popular stocks like Yida hitting the daily limit down [3] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector has been buoyed by several catalysts, including new policy expectations regarding drug procurement, frequent licensing announcements from domestic innovative drug companies, and several companies exceeding earnings expectations [5] Gold Market Insights - The gold market has seen a surge, with spot gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,080 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising trade tensions and tariff uncertainties [6][7] - Analysts predict continued upward momentum for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its price forecast for gold to $3,300 per ounce by the end of 2025, reflecting a rapid increase in gold prices [8] - Gold companies are reporting substantial revenue growth, with Shandong Gold achieving a revenue of 82.52 billion yuan, up 39.21%, and Zijin Mining reporting a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, up 3.49% [8] Future Market Outlook - The market is currently under pressure from two major uncertainties: the upcoming tariff risks in early April and the annual report pressures in mid-April, which may hinder large capital inflows [10] - There is a suggestion for investors to maintain patience and manage their positions carefully during this volatile period, focusing on performance-driven stocks while avoiding high-risk trades [11]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,300 per ounce, driven by a surge in demand for gold and other base metals, particularly due to central bank purchases, ETF inflows, policy changes, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Central banks are increasing gold reserves at a rate of 70 tons per month, up from 50 tons, with Asian central banks, particularly China, aiming to raise gold reserves from 8% to 20-30% over the next 3-6 years [1]. - Gold ETF inflows have returned to levels seen during the pandemic, with potential prices reaching $3,680 if the trend continues, as investors view gold as a safer investment akin to an "upgraded Bitcoin" [1][2]. - The policy environment is favorable for gold, with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased uncertainty from political changes, leading to more investment in gold as a safe haven [2]. Group 2: Base Metals Market Dynamics - There is a significant increase in demand for copper and other base metals, with the U.S. reportedly importing around 500,000 tons of copper due to concerns over its copper reserves [4][5]. - China plans to increase its strategic reserves of copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium by 2025, indicating a global competition for these essential metals [5]. - The European Union has allocated €800 billion for defense spending, which will require substantial amounts of base metals for weapon manufacturing, further intensifying the competition for these resources [5]. Group 3: A-share Market Response - Despite rising copper futures prices, A-share copper stocks have shown limited gains due to differences in market response mechanisms, with the futures market reacting more quickly to supply and demand changes [10]. - The processing fees for copper concentrate have decreased significantly, reducing the profit transmission from rising copper prices to stock prices [10]. - Market expectations are divided, with some investors cautious about potential price corrections in copper, leading to a wait-and-see approach regarding actual demand data in the second quarter [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have drawn significant attention from investors, with a notable downward trend observed. The article aims to analyze the underlying factors driving these price movements and their implications for investment decisions. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index influences gold prices, typically leading to price increases when the dollar weakens, as seen in the 2020 dollar depreciation cycle where gold prices rose by 25% [3] - Actual interest rates, based on the yield of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), affect gold prices; a decline in real rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus pushing prices higher. Investors are advised to monitor Federal Reserve policy meetings and CPI data for potential shifts in interest rates [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Local wars and major power rivalries, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trigger demand for safe-haven assets like gold. For instance, gold prices surged over 3% in the first week of the Russia-Ukraine war. The correlation between the fear index (VIX) and gold prices has a historical R² value of approximately 0.6 [5] - A strategy is suggested to buy gold ETFs at the onset of conflicts and gradually reduce holdings as tensions ease [5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Emerging market central banks have been increasing their gold reserves to hedge against dollar risks, with global central bank purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2022, the highest in 55 years. Major buyers include China, India, and Turkey [6] Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - On the supply side, global gold mine production is approximately 3,600 tons annually, with potential short-term supply disruptions due to strikes in major producing regions like South Africa [8] - On the demand side, significant jewelry demand arises during India's wedding season and China's Spring Festival, accounting for 50% of global consumption, while industrial gold usage (e.g., in chip manufacturing) represents about 8% [9] - An investment window is identified for purchasing physical gold or gold stocks 1-2 months before peak consumption seasons [10] Group 5: Technical Signals - Key price levels, such as $2,000 per ounce, serve as psychological resistance points, with potential for accelerated price increases upon breaking through these levels [11] - An increase in net long positions in COMEX gold futures indicates rising bullish sentiment. Suggested tools include MACD crossovers and RSI overbought/oversold signals [12] Group 6: Strategy Toolbox - A dollar-cost averaging strategy is recommended, involving fixed monthly investments in gold ETFs to smooth out price volatility, with historical annualized returns of about 6% over the past decade [13] - A hedging strategy is proposed where gold futures and stocks exhibit a negative correlation of -0.4 during stock market downturns, which can help reduce portfolio risk [14] - Event-driven strategies suggest increasing positions in gold options ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts or geopolitical crises to capture volatility [15]

Group 1: Gold Investment Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with expectations, with guidance indicating two rate cuts within the year, which is favorable for gold prices [1] - The market anticipates improved dollar liquidity and potential rate cuts, suggesting a positive outlook for the gold sector [1] - The COMEX gold price has shown a slight increase of 1.16% week-on-week, reaching 3028.2 USD/ounce, with a significant rise in non-commercial net long positions by 9.25% [3] Group 2: Steel Sector Insights - The steel sector has experienced a three-year correction, and current levels present high potential for investment [1] - Recent data indicates a 4.19% week-on-week increase in national rebar consumption, totaling 2.43 million tons, while the overall price index for common steel has decreased by 1.17% [1] - The profitability and stability of leading steel companies have improved, and changes in upstream iron ore supply dynamics may lead to a recovery in domestic steel industry profitability [1] Group 3: Industrial Metals Outlook - The LME aluminum settlement price has decreased by 2.25% week-on-week, indicating market volatility [2] - The copper smelting fee has dropped significantly by 44.65%, reaching -2.3 USD/thousand tons, suggesting tightening supply conditions [2] - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI applications, leading to a potential increase in copper prices [2]