Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by multiple factors including the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and global risk sentiment [1][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a rebound, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce before closing at $3326.35, reflecting a 0.36% increase after a drop to $3302, the lowest since July 9 [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but there are indications of potential dovish signals in the policy statement due to mixed economic data [3] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade talks have led to an extension of the tariff truce, with China confirming efforts to push for the suspension of certain tariffs, although the negotiations are expected to be complex and lengthy [4] - Recent trade agreements between the U.S. and the EU, as well as Japan, may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions, potentially reducing external risks and creating space for a dovish shift [4] - The current gold market is at a critical turning point, with strong support at the $3300 level and resistance around $3350, influenced by both global trade tensions and expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy [5]

即日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年7月30日 星期三 70015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79025 | 79075 | -50.00 | -0.06% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | વેર | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78910 | 78930 | -20.00 | -0.03% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | O | -10 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78930 | 78985 | -55.00 | -0.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 15 | 5 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 965 | aeo | +5.00 | 0.52% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -54.34 | -53.68 | -0.66 | - | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-30 棉价回落，月差下行 油脂：市场情绪企稳，油脂或震荡偏强 蛋⽩粕：优良率高于预期，美豆1000美分附近运行 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货整体稳定，等待新的指引 ⽣猪：库存仍在，期现承压 橡㬵：等待宏观指引，胶价横盘震荡 合成橡㬵：盘面继续跟随变动 纸浆：反内卷交易仍可能重来，回落过程关注套利对冲 棉花：棉价回落，月差下行 ⽩糖：糖价震荡，进口压力压制上方空间 原⽊：基本面变化有限，短期受宏观预期主导 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价回落，⽉差下⾏ 逻辑：产量方面，25/26年度，国内外棉市预计供应依旧宽松，中国预计 增产，目前天气端无明显异动。需求方面，当前处于下游需求淡季，企业 开机率延续下滑，成品小幅累库，花纱利润不佳，关注需求端的负反馈传 导。库存方面，棉花去库速度虽然因为进入淡季而环比放缓，但较往年 同期来看依旧较快，导致棉花商业库存处于同期低位，滑准税配额增发 消息未落地，新花上市前供应偏紧的格局难改。总体来看，上周起， 主力合约减仓下行，随着做多资金获利了结平仓，尽管短期供需偏紧格 局未改，但主力合约继续炒作动力减弱，月 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普就俄乌冲突对普京施压，IMF 上调全球经济增速，油价反弹。宏观 | | | | 及地缘带来利好，短期提振油价；从供需基本面看，油价进入旺季下半程， | | 原油 | 反弹加空 | 随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大， | | | | 当前供给端重要变量集中在美国产能变化。策略：卖出 10 合约同时买入 | | | | 看涨期权对冲风险。SC【520-535】 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 油价企稳反弹，自身基本面尚可，液化气反弹。成本端原油反弹，但中长 | | | | 期仍有压缩空间；基差处于高位，估值偏低；下游化工需求回升，PDH 开 | | | | 工率升至 73.13%；供给和库存中性偏多，国内商品量小幅下降，港口库 | | | | 存有所下降。策略：卖出看跌期权。PG【4000-4100】 | | L | 谨慎看多 | 原油上涨，中美贸易谈判结束。社会库存连续 5 周累库，基本面承压。塑 | | | | 料煤制占比 20%，老旧产能占比 14%，多数产能已 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend judgments based on the fundamentals and market conditions of each commodity [2][9]. - Some commodities are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and policy expectations, showing trends of short - term shock, strength, or weakness [9][11][61]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - end strengthened due to rising crude oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies. Supply decreased marginally with a 210,000 - ton restart and a 400,000 - ton device shutdown, and demand decreased marginally as a 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load [5][9]. - **PTA**: Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. Consider 9 - 1 month - spread positive arbitrage as the inventory accumulation in August weakens. The current PTA processing fee is at a relatively low level, and attention should be paid to the compression of the PTA processing fee position under high valuation [9][10]. - **MEG**: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and month - spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is falling, and the import volume is expected to increase in September. Some ethylene oxide devices may be converted to produce ethylene glycol [11]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the difference between the spot and futures prices and the month - spread showed certain changes. The inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of tire companies changed [12][13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term. The prices of futures and spot markets decreased, and the basis and month - spread also changed. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively neutral [16][17][18]. Asphalt - Asphalt is slightly stronger due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The trading volume and open interest of futures decreased, and the inventory of refineries and social warehouses decreased [19][32]. LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. The market price fluctuates, and the cost is supported by the rise in crude oil prices. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the third quarter, and the demand support is not strong [33][34]. PP - PP's spot price rose slightly, and the transaction improved. The futures price increased slightly, and the market was mainly in narrow - range adjustment. The downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda should pay attention to the delivery pressure. It is currently in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increase power but strong cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on the supply of caustic soda and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [40][41]. Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure is high, and the demand - side is weak. The price of the living paper market is in a flat consolidation, and attention should be paid to the shipment of paper enterprises and the recovery of downstream demand [44][47][49]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price decreased, and the production and sales of float glass factories weakened. The price of the spot market fluctuated, with some regions falling and some rising [50][51]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. The futures price increased, and the spot price index decreased. The traditional downstream demand is weak, but the phased external procurement of olefins provides support. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and supply factors [54][56]. Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short term as the commodity index rebounds. The futures price increased slightly, and the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and potential export support [59][61]. Styrene - Styrene's profit is being compressed. It is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly used as a short - position allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase, and attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profit [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price decreased, and the price of the spot market was adjusted in an oscillatory manner. The production of enterprises was relatively stable, and the downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement at low prices [64]. PVC - PVC is still affected by anti - involution sentiment in the short term. The spot market transaction is light, and the price oscillates downward. The industry profit has expanded significantly, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate [67][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price increased, and its short - term strength continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to strengthen, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to widen [71]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold 10 - contract short positions and consider reducing positions and taking profits for the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage. The futures price of the European line oscillated weakly, and the spot freight rate showed certain changes [73][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided. The ratings are given on a per-variety basis, including "Big range shock" for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, "Cautious about chasing long" for palm oil, "Cautious short" for cotton and red dates, and "Cautious long" for live pigs [1]. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of six agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the supply and demand fundamentals, policy factors, and market sentiment of each product [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The climate center has a neutral outlook, and the soybean planting weather in the US is generally favorable. In China, the soybean and soybean meal inventories are in the accumulation phase, which is expected to last until the end of September, with the accumulation rate in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino-US trade tariff is the key cost support for soybean meal. The price of domestic soybean meal rebounded technically after a continuous decline, and the market is waiting for new progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the results of this week's Sino-US trade negotiations. The main contract range is [2960, 3010] [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered year-on-year, but the soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is relatively dry. In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills are decreasing month-on-month, but still remain at a relatively high level year-on-year. From July to September, the import of rapeseed decreased significantly year-on-year, coupled with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the price of rapeseed meal. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts upward pressure on the price of rapeseed meal. In the spot market, the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has led to a decrease in the addition of rapeseed meal in feed, which is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the improvement of Sino-Canadian relations and the subsequent progress between China and Australia. The main contract range is [2620, 2700] [1]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The USDA's July supply and demand report lowered the global palm oil ending stocks for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% month-on-month in June, which is positive for market sentiment. The Indonesian government said it has sufficient funds to achieve the B40 target this year and complete the research and testing work for B50, dispelling previous market doubts and driving up the international palm oil price. Malaysia increased the export tariff for August, which is equivalent to increasing the import cost of domestic palm oil. After a series of positive factors, the market lacks further positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil is expected to return to the supply and demand fundamentals in July. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing long. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes. Pay attention to the domestic palm oil purchase orders in the past three months. The main contract range is [8800, 9100] [1]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, the drought in the western cotton-growing areas has slightly worsened the soil moisture, but the growth of new cotton is still good. The latest good-to-excellent rate has slightly declined but still leads the same period last year. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have both increased, and the guaranteed output has shifted upwards. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment momentum of downstream finished products has slowed down significantly in the latest week. In terms of demand, the orders of textile enterprises have reached a new low in the past five years during the off-season, and the difference in the operating rates of the two factories has gradually widened. There is a need to be vigilant about the negative feedback of the weakening marginal demand on the inventory reduction support logic [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about shorting. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high levels and the reverse spread opportunity between the 11th and 1st contracts. Be vigilant about the risk of abnormal fluctuations before the results of the Sino-US trade negotiations are released this week. The main contract range is [13750, 14000] [1]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The growth of new jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in this year's production due to the "alternate bearing" phenomenon, but the actual second and third crop fruit-setting situations in the producing areas have not shown obvious signs of production reduction. Recently, many institutions have gone to Xinjiang for further investigations. The high inventory situation persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. In terms of industry news, only three enterprises are currently implementing the floor purchase orders of some enterprises in the statement of the First Division, and it is difficult to promote it widely under the self-discipline statement [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about shorting. It is recommended to short at high levels cautiously. Pay attention to industry policies. The main contract range is [10150, 10950] [1]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the slowdown in the live pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure on栏 and reluctance to sell of farmers support the price bottom. Driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the live pig market has shown significant fluctuations. However, considering that the weight reduction is not complete, there is still a subsequent supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the overcapacity in the medium and long term remains unchanged. There is a need to be vigilant about the risk of selling off due to the previous second-round fattening [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: For the 09 contract, be vigilant about the risk of further correction as the current basis level is still relatively low and the spot price is slowing down in following the futures price. The 01 contract is relatively strong due to the earlier delivery time compared to previous years. For the far-month contracts, based on the optimistic expectation of the industry's anti-involution, consider going long at low levels or adopting a cross-year reverse spread strategy [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮正在进行，关注谈判进程。郑棉主力09跌破14000关口，郑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and go short on PXN when it rallies. Due to the restart of a 210,000 - tonne unit and the shutdown of a 400,000 - tonne unit, supply decreases marginally. The 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduces its load, leading to a marginal decline in demand. With a significant strengthening of the cost side, short PXN on rallies [7]. - PTA: Focus on going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis remains weak at - 5 yuan/ton, and basis reverse arbitrage operations are still maintained. As the monthly spread approaches parity and considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August, pay attention to the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage. Also, focus on the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuations [7][8]. - MEG: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. With continuous decline in port inventories and some buying in the basis in late August, but considering the delivery pressure on the 09 contract, the monthly spread is always weak, making the ethylene glycol trend weak. Also, pay attention to the short ethylene glycol and long L arbitrage. In terms of supply, it is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide units are expected to switch to ethylene glycol production in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The strengthening of crude oil prices is the key driving factor, influenced by the optimistic sentiment towards China - US trade negotiations and the expectation of a decrease in US crude oil inventories. A 210,000 - tonne PX production line of Idemitsu Kosan restarted on July 28, and a 400,000 - tonne unit shut down. On July 29, there were bids and offers for September and October deliveries in the Asian PX market, but no transactions were concluded [2][5]. - PTA: A 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [5]. - MEG: From July 28 to August 3, the planned arrival volume at major ports is about 1.56 million tons. Pay attention to the impact of weather factors on vessel entry efficiency during the week [6]. - Polyester: A 500,000 - tonne polyester device in Wuxi plans to restart tomorrow, and a 300,000 - tonne device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since July 28 for about 15 - 20 days. A 200,000 - tonne device in Shaoxing started maintenance on July 28 for about a month. A 30,000 - tonne low - melting - point staple fiber device in Xiamen has been shut down for maintenance today for a month. On July 29, the sales of direct - spun staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still sluggish, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% [6][7]. Price and Spread Data | Variety | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Monthly Spread Yesterday's Closing Price | Monthly Spread Change | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday's Price | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6942 | 6890 | 0.75% | 108 | 18 | 857.33 | 6 | 292.5 | 12.96 | | PTA | 4838 | 26 | 0.54% | 6 | 4 | 4830 | - 15 | 192.67 | - 5.64 | | MEG | 4467 | 31 | 0.70% | - 25 | 3 | 4518 | 19 | - | - | | PF | 6500 | 18 | 0.28% | - 32 | - 2 | - | - | 84.81 | - 30.82 | | SC | 515 | 9.1 | 1.80% | 6.6 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆大幅减仓回调,盘面收长下影线。本周中美贸易谈判牵动市场情绪,持续关注谈判结果。政策方面本周国产大豆双向 购销政策今日全部成交、成交均价4374元/吨，溢价50-210元/吨。短期东北地区降水偏多，需要防范低洼农田出现滞涝风险。 ...

【行情回顾】 周二（7月29日），周一，美元指数大幅上扬，盘中突破98关口后持续走高，最终收涨1%，报98.633。 受累于美元走强和风险情绪回温，现货黄金连跌四日，美盘短线跳水，一度逼近3300美元大关，随后有 所反弹，最终收跌0.68%，收报3314.63美元/盎司；现货白银收平，报38.17美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 在8月1日，美国相关贸易协定即将到期。当前，美国已同部分国家达成了协议，在此背景下，黄金价格 承受着显著压力。现阶段市场的核心焦点依然聚焦于中美贸易谈判的进展态势。 随着全球贸易乐观情绪的上升，尤其是美国和欧盟贸易协定的达成，投资者正将注意力转向风险资产， 远离白银等传统避险资产。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3300美元或3270美元附近支撑；上方关注3324美元或3336美元附近阻力； 现货白银：下方关注37.85美元或37.50美元支撑；上方关注38.35美元或38.50美元阻力。 此外，本周金融市场还将迎来重磅事件——美联储利率决议以及非农就业数据公布。就利率决议而言， 市场普遍预估利率将维持不变。然而，特朗普却明确表态，认为美联储本周应当实施降息举措。一旦出 现意外降息的情况 ...