本期为基金社交媒体指数（2025年6月）。 本期为基金社交媒体指数（2025年6月）。 本期总榜保持稳定，仅宝盈基金（TOP19）替换诺安基金（5月TOP19）进入榜单。 本期基金抖音高赞榜上榜作品以财经解读为主。万家基金解读"并购重组政策松绑"热点，用"资本相亲大会"比喻降低用户理解门槛，收获3万+点赞。华夏基 金、易方达基金不约而同聚焦"降准降息"政策对投资带来的影响，关联普通人钱袋子，均收获了上万点赞，显示用户对宏观事件如何影响投资的强关注。嘉 实基金、华富基金、国泰基金则挖掘前瞻性产业趋势，用通俗语言分析高成长性赛道的未来机会。此外，榜首作品华安基金《人生没有白走的路，但走自己 选的路时，每一步都带风》上演励志温情小剧场，精准演绎了毕业季年轻人对未来选择的犹豫，是听父母的决定还是坚持自我，强烈的情绪共鸣引发了10万 用户点赞。 视频号方面，本期多个品牌IP栏目上榜（如中欧基金「种时光的人」、富国合唱团、嘉实基金《好奇心营地》等），IP化运营已成为视频号内容突围的核心 策略。中欧基金「种时光的人」上榜作品用舞蹈艺术《只此青绿》诠释投资哲学，将"长期主义"具象化为文化符号，深度叙事收获用户8千+点赞。富国 ...

热点速评 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议[1]，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。我们对其中涉及金融领域的重点信息进行归纳。 Text 正文 前期政策落实落细。政治局会议提到"要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，我们认为这意味着下半年的政策重点在于延续和落实前期 已经部署的政策，包括推出结构性货币政策新工具、政府加杠杆支持化债和财政发力、保持充裕的流动性环境等。会议也提到"促进社会综合融资成本下 行"，我们认为下半年降准和降息仍有空间，特别是人民币汇率稳中有升缓解了对货币政策的约束，央行对于银行间流动性投放也有所宽松；具体降准降 息时点选择可能仍然有灵活性，根据经济增长情况和海外利率环境相机抉择。 "反内卷"措施更加市场化。政治局会议提到"依法依规治理企业无序竞争""推进重点行业产能治理"，相比7月初中央财经委会议"依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争""推动落后产能有序退出"的提法去掉了"低价""产能退出"的措辞，一方面说明"反内卷"并非单纯"涨价"，另一方面强调政策手段更为市场化、法治 化，与2016年供给侧改革的行政化手段有所不同，也并非"一刀切"关停产能。对于银行资产质量而言，"反 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities A500 Index (000510) experienced a decline of 1.15% as of July 31, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including a limit-up for Yonyou Network (600588) and Digital China (000034), while Daqo New Energy (688303) led the decline [1] - The A500 ETF leader (563800) recorded a turnover of 7.8% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 1.31 billion yuan, and has an average daily transaction volume of 1.934 billion yuan over the past year [1] - The latest scale of the A500 ETF leader reached 16.79 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 11.13% over the past six months [2] Group 2 - The A500 ETF leader has achieved a maximum monthly return of 3.55% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being two months and a maximum gain of 5.34% [2] - The A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, balancing traditional and emerging sectors, including increased weight in pharmaceuticals, new energy, and computing [2] - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while profits decreased by 1.8%, suggesting positive signals for economic recovery and corporate profit stabilization [3]

Economic Outlook - The overall economic situation in China is positive in the first half of 2025, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - Consumer spending has significantly increased, driven by "trade-in" programs, contributing notably to retail sales growth [1][2] - The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year is higher compared to the same period last year, with a notable rebound in consumption and resilient exports [1] Policy Directions - The government will maintain a steady policy approach in the short term, focusing on precise measures without increasing deficits or issuing new bonds [2] - Key policy directions include optimizing budget allocations among provinces, increasing spending on employment and foreign trade stability, and supporting major economic provinces [2] - Monetary policy is expected to emphasize structural and innovative tools, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2][3] Structural Investment Opportunities - The capital market presents structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] - The real estate sector's changing expectations are driving a shift in wealth allocation among residents, with low bond yields prompting capital inflows into the stock market [3] - Historical examples from Japan indicate that even during economic downturns, strategic policies can lead to significant stock market rebounds [3] Thematic Investment Focus - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a long-term investment direction, catalyzing a new wave of technological revolution [4] - Opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in electronics, computing, and communications, are highlighted due to global supply chain restructuring [4] - High dividend yield and low volatility assets are expected to remain attractive to investors [4]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided a framework for economic development over the next five years and set the stage for the second half of 2023's economic policies [1] - The absence of explicit mentions of "real estate" in the recent meeting indicates a shift in focus, although the need to stabilize the housing market remains critical [3] - The meeting emphasized maintaining liquidity and promoting a decline in comprehensive financing costs, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [2] Stock Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded over 30% since last year, indicating a positive trend in the stock market, which the meeting aims to consolidate [4][5] - The effectiveness of measures taken by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and other entities in stabilizing the stock market has been acknowledged, but further support from fundamental economic conditions is necessary for continued growth [5] Commodity Prices and Supply Chain Management - Recent rebounds in commodity prices are contingent on supply-demand dynamics, with the government focusing on regulating excessive competition rather than merely raising prices [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for capacity management in key industries, including photovoltaic, cement, and automotive sectors, to ensure sustainable growth [6] Macro Policy Adjustments - The macroeconomic policy has shifted towards increased investment in consumer spending and improving living standards, with a notable rise in government leverage [8] - The government's ability to implement counter-cyclical policies is crucial for boosting confidence and stimulating demand in the face of economic contraction [8]

人民财讯7月30日电，中信建投研报表示，7月政治局会议聚焦"十五五"规划谋划与下半年经济工作，释 放多重政策信号。会议明确"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期， 需衔接多重时间节点。当前经济回升向好但基础仍需巩固，政策取向保持宽松同时留足弹性，若三季度 数据超预期走弱，四季度或启动增量工具。宏观政策持续发力且注重"落细"，财政加快政府债券发行使 用，货币保持流动性充裕，下半年仍有降准降息可能，政府投资基金精准投向战略领域。同时，着力培 育服务消费新增长点，优化市场竞争秩序，增强资本市场吸引力，鼓励企业家以创新与优质产品抢占竞 争主动，推动经济高质量发展。 转自：证券时报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1][2] - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose orientation, with an emphasis on ensuring ample liquidity and promoting a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society [1][2] - The meeting did not directly mention "timely interest rate cuts," but introduced a new expression regarding the goal of "promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs" [1][2] Group 2 - The focus on utilizing existing structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade is highlighted [2] - Analysts suggest that the necessity for new large-scale incremental policies, including interest rate cuts, has decreased due to the stable external economic environment and the observation period following previous rate cuts [2][3] - There is an expectation that the central bank may consider further interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions if necessary, to create a favorable financial environment for large-scale government bond issuance and credit allocation [3]

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。会议指出，货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会 综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外 贸等。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，货币政策"适度宽松"取向不变。相较于4月25日召开的中央政 治局会议，在总量工具方面，本次会议不再提及"适时降准降息"；在降成本目标方面，新增"促进社会 综合融资成本下行"的表述；结构性货币政策工具方面，不再提及"创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立 新型政策性金融工具"，而是要求"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"，更多聚焦于对现有工具使用的关 注。明明预计，中国人民银行仍将维持稳中偏松的政策取向，总量工具可能仍在政策成效观察期，未来 降准降息的空间和节奏或取决于本轮经济和信用修复进度。(上证报) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Interest rate swap curve inversions are mainly caused by economic fundamentals and capital price/liquidity factors, and in most cases, they can predict central bank reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, especially when reflecting market expectations of economic downturn and policy easing [2][67][68]. - The end of interest rate swap inversions usually means changes in the driving factors, which can be due to improved economic fundamentals, alleviated capital tightness, or implemented monetary policies. However, the monetary easing cycle may not stop immediately after the inversion ends [5][69]. - Interest rate swap inversions are not a necessary condition for monetary easing, which may be related to the central bank's control over inter - bank repo rates and the steeper yield curve after de - leveraging [6][70]. - When an interest rate swap curve inversion occurs, especially accompanied by weak economic fundamentals, it is a strong signal of future monetary policy easing. Investors and policymakers can use this signal to make decisions [7]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Swap Curve Historical Inversion Situation Review - **2011 Inversion**: Occurred in August. On August 19, 5Y - 1Y/2Y - 1Y spreads turned negative. The deepest negative spreads of 5Y - 1Y and 2Y - 1Y were - 55.63bp and - 34.93bp respectively on September 6, 2011. High inflation in 2011 led to a tight monetary policy at first, but with inflation and economic growth down in Q3, long - term bond and IRS rates dropped rapidly under the expectation of monetary easing. The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio in November [14][16]. - **2012 Inversion**: Had two rounds. The first was from the beginning of 2012 to mid - May, caused by capital rate fluctuations and easing expectations. The second was from July 11 to October 12, caused by reserve requirement ratio cut expectations due to weakening fundamentals. The end of the second inversion was related to the improvement of economic fundamentals [25][26][30]. - **2013 Inversion**: Concentrated in June. Due to tightened capital caused by factors like decreased foreign exchange inflows and the central bank's tight policy stance, it reached the extreme on June 20. The inversion ended after the central bank provided liquidity support on June 25 [36][38][39]. - **2015 Inversion**: Initially occurred at the end of 2014 and concentrated from late January to the end of March. It was caused by capital fluctuations and tightness during the New Year period and the stock market's "bull market". The inversion ended as capital prices dropped rapidly [43][44][51]. II. Whether the Interest Rate Swap Curve Can Predict Interest Rate Cuts - **2011**: The inversion predicted the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and foreshadowed a monetary easing cycle [54]. - **2012**: The first inversion accurately predicted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the second predicted interest rate cuts [55]. - **2013**: The inversion did not predict reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts due to the "cash crunch" [56]. - **2015**: The inversion predicted subsequent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The end of the inversion did not mean the end of monetary easing [57][59]. III. Summary - **Reasons and Characteristics of Interest Rate Swap Curve Inversion**: Mainly caused by economic fundamentals (such as economic slowdown and inflation decline) and capital price/liquidity factors (such as capital tightness) [67]. - **Prediction Effect of Interest Rate Swap Curve on Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts**: In most cases, it can predict reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, especially when reflecting economic downturn and policy easing expectations. It may lead the monetary easing cycle [68]. - **Meaning of the End of Interest Rate Swap Inversion**: It usually means changes in the driving factors, including improved economic fundamentals, alleviated capital tightness, or implemented monetary policies [69]. - **Interest Rate Swap Inversion Is Not a Necessary Condition for Monetary Easing**: This may be related to the central bank's control over inter - bank repo rates and the steeper yield curve after de - leveraging [70]. - **How to Use the Swap Inversion Signal**: When an inversion occurs, especially with weak economic fundamentals, it signals future monetary policy easing. Investors and policymakers can use it as a reference [71].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank will continue to implement a 400 billion MLF operation, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment despite low probabilities for rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank announced a 400 billion yuan MLF operation on July 25, with a one-year term, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [1] - This operation results in a net injection of 1000 billion yuan, as the MLF maturity for the month is 3000 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - According to Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, the sustained net liquidity injection is driven by two main factors: the rapid issuance of government bonds and accelerated credit investment, necessitating coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [1] - The central bank's continued use of quantity-based tools signals a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming to stabilize market expectations and create a favorable environment for credit expansion [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Wang Qing anticipates that the probability of rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term is low, but monetary policy will remain proactive under the overarching goal of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [1]