Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main reason for the recent weakness in the bond market is that the central bank's open - market operations and external expectation management since November have been overall prudent and did not match the market's high expectations. The concerns about policy tone adjustment and “short - term tightening and long - term easing” are more of an emotional interpretation. [1][3] - The bond market is currently facing potential pressures from inflation improvement and the mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - Suggestions for responding to the market situation include staying on the sidelines in the near term and paying attention to short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Reasons for the Decline - **Monetary Policy Factor**: The market's expectations for monetary policy were not met. After the central bank restarted treasury bond trading in late October, the follow - up policy guidance and actual open - market operations were restrained. The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - November did not echo the over - heated policy expectations. Near the end of the year, discussions about policy setting and the description of “short - term tightening and long - term easing” in the media also affected the bond market. [1][2][3] - **Institutional Behavior Factor**: Concerns about public fund redemption rules and banks selling old bonds are institutional behavior disturbances. The suspension of five - year large - denomination certificates of deposit by large banks and the adjustment of medium - and long - term time deposits by small and medium - sized banks led to a decline in the duration of the liability side and weakened the demand of the allocation disk. The central bank's investigation into banks' selling of old bonds also affected the market. [6] - **Potential Risk Factor**: The bond market is facing inflation pressure from statistical improvement and the strong performance of commodities, as well as the problem of the increasing mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term government bonds. [8] Response Measures - **Stay on the Sidelines**: Pay attention to the tone of the year - end meetings and the central bank's statements to observe the bottom of the recent decline. Wait for the central bank's supportive statements to avoid the potential systemic risk of concentrated redemptions caused by the over - decline of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - **Focus on Opportunities**: Focus on short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. Short - and medium - term varieties have higher anti - decline attributes and allocation value. [9]

超长债供需失衡压力大。 最近债圈的日子"不好过"。12月4日早盘，股债市场齐跌，持续阴跌的债市迎来更大幅度调整，超长债 抛压尤为明显。 30年期国债期货合约全天跌超1%，创近期单日最大跌幅；30年超长债收益率一度上行4BP（基 点），"25超长特别国债06"收益率已经来到2.28%附近。 不同于前期"股债跷跷板"效应下的债市波动，四季度以来债市接连阴跌，期限利差不断走阔。对于债市 进一步大跌，有市场人士对第一财经表示，作为交易主线之一的央行国债买卖不及预期已被市场消化， 但持续下跌加上短期无明显利好，机构抛售兑现老券浮盈叠加买盘力量弱，极易形成负反馈。 不少机构分析，短期恐慌情绪难免，但在长期趋势下，此轮深跌也为后续反弹留下空间。12月将有 10000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，央行4日晚间公告称将于5日进行等量续作。 国债期限利差进一步走阔 临近年末，尽管资金面整体延续宽松态势，但持续阴跌的债市没有修复迹象，反而迎来了进一步深跌。 12月4日，截至收盘，国债期货全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌1.04%，创下2024年11月22日以来新低； 10年期主力合约跌0.35%，5年期主力合约跌0.24%，2年期主力 ...

人民银行12月4日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标 方式开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 | | | 图：中国人民银行 由于本月有10000亿元3月期买断式逆回购到期，意味着当月3月期买断式逆回购等量续做。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，12月3个月期买断式逆回购未加量续做，或与金融机构资金需求的期限结构等有关，不代表 央行降低流动性投放力度。 数据显示，本月有20358亿元逆回购到期、3000亿元MLF到期、4000亿元6月期买断式逆回购到期。 王青预计，央行本月还会开展一次6个月期买断式操作，加量续做可能性比较大。主要是为应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，引导资 金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同时，也将释放数量型政策工具 持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，12月以来市场流动性相对宽松，隔夜、7天利率位于年内低位波动，1年期同业存单利率同样 维持相对低位；本月MLF和6月期买断式逆回购到期压力并不大，在呵护跨年流动性的要求下， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold interest rates steady in light of unexpectedly high GDP growth of 8.2% and low CPI inflation of 0.3% for October, leading to a reassessment of economic forecasts [1][3][4]. Economic Indicators - The October CPI inflation rate was reported at 0.3%, which is significantly below expectations, indicating a benign inflation environment [1][3]. - The GDP growth rate for the same period was 8.2%, surpassing the RBI's own estimate of 7% and the market expectation of 7.4%, prompting a revision of growth forecasts [3][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The RBI is likely to revise its GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2026 to an average of 7.2%, which is 40 basis points higher than previous estimates [3][4]. - The inflation forecast for the financial year 2026 is expected to be revised down to around 2%, compared to the current forecast of 2.6% [4][12]. Market Reactions - The RBI is anticipated to adopt a neutral stance with a dovish pause, potentially implementing non-rate measures to ensure bond market stability and liquidity [5][6]. - There is a recognition of the divergence in economic data interpretations among economists, but the RBI will base its decisions on the available data, regardless of its credibility concerns [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 10 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on December 5, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC's operation on December 5 will be a continuation of the 10 trillion yuan 3-month reverse repo, marking the second consecutive month of equal renewal of this policy tool [5] - The decision not to increase the amount of the 3-month reverse repo may relate to the funding needs of financial institutions, indicating that the PBOC is not reducing liquidity injection [5] - There is an expectation of an additional 6-month reverse repo operation in December, with a possibility of an increased amount, as 4 trillion yuan of 6-month reverse repos will also mature [5][6] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Policy Implications - The PBOC aims to inject medium-term liquidity through reverse repos to counter potential tightening of liquidity, supporting government bond issuance and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit [6] - The operation on December 5 is expected to strengthen support for the year-end funding situation, effectively offsetting the maturity of the 10 trillion yuan 3-month reverse repo [6] - The PBOC is likely to utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market, with a focus on maintaining a stable funding environment as over 25 trillion yuan of public market operation funds will mature in December [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 10 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on December 5, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the second consecutive month of equal volume operations [2]. Group 1 - The PBOC's operation on December 5 will match the 10 trillion yuan of 3-month buyout reverse repos maturing in December, indicating a continuation of liquidity support [2]. - The decision not to increase the volume of the 3-month reverse repos may relate to the funding needs of financial institutions, rather than a reduction in liquidity provision [3]. - There is an expectation of an additional 6-month buyout reverse repurchase operation in December, as 4 trillion yuan of 6-month reverse repos will also mature [2][3]. Group 2 - Factors contributing to potential liquidity tightening include the issuance of 5 trillion yuan in local government bonds and a significant increase in the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, reaching 37 trillion yuan in December [3]. - The PBOC aims to inject medium-term liquidity through buyout reverse repos to stabilize the funding environment and support government bond issuance [3]. - The central bank's strategy reflects a "short-term tightening, long-term easing" approach to ensure stable liquidity in the banking system as the year-end approaches [3][4]. Group 3 - The PBOC is expected to utilize both buyout reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market in December [4]. - There is an anticipation of over 25 trillion yuan in open market operation funds maturing in December, which the PBOC will likely counteract through continued operations [4]. - The PBOC is projected to conduct a 6-month buyout reverse repo operation around December 15, with expectations for either equal or increased volume [4].

近日，PGIM固定收益公司的联席首席投资官Gregory Peters在接受媒体采访时警告称，即便现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特最终被任命为下 一届美联储主席，他可能也没有能力实现特朗普所希望的快速降息，因为美联储的利率决策终究由委员会集体决定。 这一警告发出之际，市场正热议哈赛特若执掌美联储，可能会为迎合特朗普而采取激进的货币宽松政策。特朗普本周表示，美联储主席的角逐 已"缩减至一人"，并称哈赛特是"潜在的美联储主席人选"，这让哈赛特成为该职位的头号热门。 哈赛特成为热门人选已引发投资者对美联储独立性的新一轮担忧。Peters指出，这一担忧正在转化为风险溢价，并被计入全球主权债券的定价中。 他强调，美联储的独立性"仍然是投资者的一个主要关切点"。 然而，尽管市场对此高度关注，但美国国债收益率在周四表现平稳基准10年期国债收益率维持在4.08%，对政策敏感的2年期国债收益率微升1个 基点至3.50%。 | 概览 | 图表 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank suggests that if Hassett becomes the Federal Reserve Chairman, his initial policy path may be more hawkish or neutral than expected, creating significant uncertainty for those betting on immediate large-scale monetary easing [1][4]. Group 1: Hassett's Potential Role - Hassett is seen as a strong candidate to replace Powell, with the Trump administration favoring him for his loyalty and alignment with their economic views [5][6]. - Hassett's background includes a PhD in economics and experience at the Federal Reserve, which positions him as a qualified candidate [7]. - His "outsider" status is viewed positively, aligning with recent calls for an independent review of the Fed's policies and operations [8][9]. Group 2: Challenges to Easing Policies - The report highlights three major challenges Hassett would face in implementing aggressive easing policies: 1. Difficulty in achieving internal consensus within the Fed, especially given the current economic climate [10]. 2. Economic fundamentals may not support significant rate cuts by mid-2026, as the economy is expected to grow steadily with limited downward risks in the labor market [12]. 3. The Fed's committee is largely hawkish, making it unlikely for members to agree on a clear easing stance, especially if Powell remains on the board [13][16]. Group 3: Market Implications - The expectation of a "rate cut feast" may not materialize, with policy adjustments likely to be gradual and restrained [14].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate voted 51 to 47 to terminate Trump's global tariff policy based on a "national emergency," with four Republican senators breaking ranks to support the Democrats [3] - The negative impact of the tariff war has led to a noticeable slowdown in U.S. economic growth in Q3, with rising prices further complicating the situation [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to only lower rates by 25 basis points has contributed to market pessimism, resulting in declines in U.S. stock markets and international gold prices [3] Group 2 - The Senate's decision is largely symbolic, as the House of Representatives is expected to block the measure, with the Supreme Court set to debate the tariff issue soon [6] - Trump's administration has faced two legal defeats regarding the tariff policy, and the upcoming Supreme Court ruling could have significant implications for the legality of the tariffs [6][8] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, it could lead to compensation for tariffs collected, amounting to trillions of dollars, which the U.S. government is unlikely to pay [8] Group 3 - Amidst internal U.S. turmoil, China and Canada are preparing to respond to U.S. tariffs, with Canada feeling helpless in the face of Trump's refusal to engage [10][12] - Canada's willingness to engage with China and India for economic cooperation marks a significant shift, driven by the current geopolitical climate [12] - The warming of China-Canada relations is seen as a temporary measure, contingent on the stability of U.S.-China relations, which could impact future negotiations on key issues like canola and automotive industries [14] Group 4 - The renewed China-Canada relationship signals a coordinated effort against U.S. policies, potentially undermining Trump's tariff strategy [16] - This situation represents a significant psychological blow to Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, raising questions about how the administration will manage the narrative moving forward [16]

央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展10000亿元买断式逆回购 操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招求 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | | 报刊年鉴 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 在线申报 | | 下 ...