Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3,497 yuan/ton, down 0.4% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 85,190 lots, a decrease of 4,256 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 133,237 lots, a decrease of 63,289 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,800 - 4,091 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,470 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,400 - 3,450 yuan/ton in South China; 3,580 - 3,650 yuan/ton in East China [1]. - Crude oil prices rebounded oscillatingly this week, consolidating the cost support for asphalt. Spot prices remained stable overall, with some major refineries in certain regions raising the asphalt settlement price, boosting the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. The futures market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - The asphalt market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. Terminal demand was generally poor. In June, the temperature in northern regions was suitable for some infrastructure projects to start construction, but there was a lack of supra - seasonal growth momentum. In southern regions, the rainy season hindered road construction and restricted asphalt terminal consumption [1]. - Currently, the increase in market supply was limited. The overall operating rate and inventory were at low levels. With cost support, market pressure was limited, but the weak improvement in demand restricted the market's upward space [1]. Group 3: Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [2] - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of BU2507 - 2509 (positive spread) at low levels [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 4: Figures and Their Units - Figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China) are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10] - Figures showing the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, as well as the near - month spread, are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][18][21] - Figures showing the trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures (unilateral and main contract) are provided, with the unit of lots [3][23] - Figures showing the production volume of domestic asphalt (weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions like Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][29][31] - Figures showing the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][37][38] - Figures showing the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (according to Longzhong data) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bearish [3] - Option strategy: Sell calls [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is in the off - season of demand, with no obvious signs of recovery in downstream demand after the holiday and a strong wait - and - see attitude. Therefore, the current operation should focus on selling hedges on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.98/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, while the SMM Guangdong and Henan lead spot prices increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,325 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Market**: On June 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,680 yuan/ton, closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,915 lots, a decrease of 4,095 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 50,484 lots, a decrease of 2,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,765 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,645 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week. As of June 5, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute Price**: Due to the off - season of lead demand and no obvious improvement in downstream demand after the holiday, the operation strategy is to sell hedges on rallies [3]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell call options [3]

化工日报 | 2025-06-06 乙烷消息扰动下EG冲高回落 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4283元/吨（较前一交易日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.21%），EG华东市场现货价4430 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.34%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）130元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。 早间受美国乙烷出口受阻消息影响，乙二醇盘面快速拉涨，现货高位成交至4465元/吨附近，随后市场趋于冷静， 盘面震荡回落，另外隆众口径EG港口库存较周一增长3.77万吨，EG价格回落。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-37美元/吨（环比-8美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为92元/吨（环比-57 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.1万吨（环比-6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.2万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线整理蓄势 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | | | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空， | | | | 看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3000 元至 3070 元区间 | | | | 未来两周阻力较大。主力【2925，2985】 | | 菜粕 ...

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

型期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月6日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 6月5日 | 6月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2501 收盘价 | 2319 | 2330 | -11 | -0.47% | | | 主力 MA2505 收盘价 | 2263 | 2330 | -67 | -2.88% | | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2259 | 2270 | -11 | -0.48% | | | MA2505-2509价差 | 4 | 60 | -56 | -93.33% | | | MA2501-2505价差 | 56 | 0 | 56 | #DIV/0i | | | 太仓基差: 现货-MA2509 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 76.36% | TT./048 | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1893 | 1875 | 18 | 0.93% | | | 河南浩阳现货 | 2065 | 2068 | -3 | -0.12% | | | 港口太仓现货 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单开始增加；上期所仓单也逐渐增加；沪锌ZN2507： 震荡盘整。 6月5日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Research fellows: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon 06 contract has entered a stalemate stage. The closing price of PS2507 was 34,540 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.27%. The trading volume was 127,429 lots, and the open interest was 65,802 lots, with a net decrease of 2,071 lots [4] Market Outlook - After the end of the terminal rush to install and the policy being in a vacuum period, the weak spot price limits the rebound space. The supply in the first week of June is expected to remain at 22,000 tons, and the expected monthly output is less than 100,000 tons. The expected production increase during the wet season is difficult to materialize, and there is still an expected agreement to cut production in June, which supports the current futures and spot prices. The weak reality is mainly reflected in the fact that the downstream photovoltaic terminal "rush to install" is gradually coming to an end, and the demand has decreased significantly month-on-month. Overall, the logic of the shortage of deliverable goods has been falsified and is difficult to hype again. The weak reality limits the rebound space. Before the production cut is implemented, the short-term price will be in a stalemate, and it is advisable to wait and see [4] Group 3: Market News - As of June 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,030 lots, a net increase of 110 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the number of polysilicon orders traded this week was limited, and the prices remained stable for the time being. The transaction price range of n-type recycled materials was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5]

2025年06月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续走低，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：偏弱震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 7 | | 锌：震荡调整 | 9 | | 铅：区间运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：基本面疲弱，关注中美关税修复的可能性 | 15 | | 工业硅：商品情绪改善，关注上行风险 | 17 | | 多晶硅：弱势基本面格局依旧 | 17 | | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 26 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 27 | | 对二甲苯：PX ...

2025年06月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 2 | | 铜：库存持续走低，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：偏弱震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 锌：震荡调整 | 8 | | 铅：区间运行 | 9 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 10 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 6 日 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 白银：技术突破 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | - ...