1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral. Short - term expected to continue range - bound. Long - term optimistic after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Neutral. Short - term may have limited further decline and weak rebound. Long - term not optimistic [4] - Pulp: Neutral. Short - term hard to break away from the bottom. Long - term price center may rise [7] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on short - term and long - term perspectives [1][2][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13765 yuan/ton yesterday, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.29%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14763 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; national average price was 14936 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] - As of Oct 16, 2025, US cumulative net export contracts of 2025/26 cotton were 110.6 tons (41.66% of annual expected exports), with 35.6 tons shipped (32.16% shipping rate). China's cumulative contracts were 3.1 tons, and 0.6 tons were shipped [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA raised 2025/26 global cotton production significantly but only slightly increased consumption, resulting in higher ending stocks. US cotton production increased due to higher yield, with increased sales pressure [1] - Domestic: 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be 730 - 750 tons. Short - term supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton is suppressed by hedging. Demand is weak, but profit and inventory do not form negative feedback [1] Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound. Long - term: optimistic after seasonal pressure due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low import volume expectations [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5405 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [2] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar price was 5470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yunnan Kunming's was 5425 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] - Thailand's 2025/26 cane base price is 890 Thai baht/ton (196.78 yuan/ton), with a floating standard of 53.40 Thai baht/CCS point (11.81 yuan/ton) [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's strong supply and India's expected production rebound suppress the market. Short - term decline may be limited, and long - term rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: Higher - than - expected imports and new sugar factory openings increase short - term supply pressure [4] Strategy - Short - term: May have limited decline and weak rebound due to low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding. Long - term: not optimistic [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5190 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [4] - Spot: Shandong's Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5375 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp was 4910 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Imported wood pulp prices showed different trends, with some rising and some stable. Traders had惜售 sentiment, and downstream demand was not strong [5] Market Analysis - Supply: 2025 - 2026 overseas new capacity is limited, and some mills plan to cut production. European demand may increase, reducing China's import pressure. However, domestic new capacity may bring more supply [6] - Demand: Although there is new paper capacity, terminal demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. But expanding capacity will increase pulp demand [6] Strategy - Short - term: Hard to break away from the bottom. Long - term: price center may rise, and waiting for bottom - building to buy is recommended [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on December 1 due to lack of soybean sales to China, and the market is still skeptical about China's purchase of 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of 2025. The slowdown in US soybean sales to China remains a focus. Competition from South America is also a concern, although StoneX has slightly lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production, which is still expected to reach a record high if achieved [3]. - The spot price of DCE bean - one is stable with a slight upward trend, supporting the futures price. DCE bean - meal futures are in an adjustment and oscillation state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE bean - one 2601 closed at 4126 yuan/ton during the day session, up 11 yuan (+0.27%), and 4141 yuan/ton at night, up 23 yuan (+0.56%); DCE bean - meal 2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton during the day session, down 11 yuan (-0.36%), and 3040 yuan/ton at night, down 4 yuan (-0.13%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1127.25 cents per bushel, down 10 cents (-0.88%); CBOT bean - meal 01 closed at 314.5 dollars per short ton, down 4.1 dollars (-1.29%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In various regions, the spot price of bean - meal (43%) ranges from 3000 - 3140 yuan/ton, with price changes of - 20 to +10 yuan compared to the previous day. The spot basis and forward basis have different levels in different months and regions [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of bean - meal was 6.55 million tons per day, compared to 5.85 million tons the day before. The inventory data for the previous week was 105.65 million tons, and the data for the previous week was not available [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - On December 1, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to lack of sales to China. The market doubts China's purchase plan. South American competition is a concern, and StoneX has lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production to 177.2 million tons, while AgRural estimates that as of November 27, 89% of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting has been completed, slightly lower than the same period last year [3]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of bean - meal and bean - one is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig and egg sectors: Cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - Pig market: Pig price decline has led to the continuous accumulation of frozen product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. This year's pickling demand is slightly lower than expected, and the end - of - year demand may have limited support for pig prices. With a lack of strong support on the demand side, the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] - Egg market: Although the capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens in production remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is difficult to be substantially alleviated. Under the background of high supply, the demand side has limited support for egg prices, and the price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2601 contract yesterday was 11,495 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change of +0.26% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 11.42 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 11.64 yuan/kg, a change of +0.09 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.50 yuan/kg, a change of +0.05 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On December 1, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 127.53, up 1.04 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 129.96, up 1.20 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.80 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from last Friday; beef was 66.58 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; mutton was 63.40 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; eggs were 7.33 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; white - striped chickens were 17.89 yuan/kg, up 1.8% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3201 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 92.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a change of - 2.79% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, a change of +0.14 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.20 yuan/jin, a change of +0.10; in Hebei, it was 2.71 yuan/jin, a change of +0.02 [3] - Inventory: On December 1, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from yesterday, a decrease of 3.16%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.19 days, unchanged from yesterday [3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "Short - term bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, methanol rebounded from a low level and is expected to run strongly. In the medium - term, the high supply pressure of the 01 - contract methanol in China is the main contradiction, and the price upside in December may be limited. In 2026, the overall fundamental situation of methanol may improve in the first quarter. The MTO fundamental is weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The fundamental pressure level is currently at 2,150 - 2,200 yuan/ton. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan, which is around 2,000 - 2,050 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. [Fundamental Tracking] - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,136 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,121 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume was 1,027,056 lots, up 83,284 lots; the open interest of the 01 - contract was 1,003,722 lots, down 45,066 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 2.178178 billion yuan, up 0.171558 billion yuan; the basis was - 18, up 7; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 96, down 12. In the spot market, the Inner Mongolia price was 1,970 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,955 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,180 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 2. [Spot News] - The methanol spot price index was 2,065.15, up 4.37. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2,118, up 8, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,995, up 2.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 2.5 to 55 yuan/ton. As of November 26, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 0.1158 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels was lower than expected, and the visible unloading during the period was only 152,000 tons [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is cautious, and both glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate. Glass needs long - term losses for capacity clearance, and soda ash prices are restricted by potential float glass cold - repairs [1][2]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both are expected to show an oscillatory trend. Silicon manganese prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and silicon ferrosilicon prices will be weakly correlated with the sector in the short - term due to high inventory [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated downward with reduced positions. Spot prices were stable regionally, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Supply contraction was insufficient, and high inventory persisted. Attention should be paid to cold - repairs and macro policies [1]. - **Soda Ash Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated with varying performance among contracts. Light soda ash consumption was better than heavy soda ash, and downstream demand was for immediate needs. Supply - demand contradictions were slightly alleviated, but inventory remained high. Heavy soda ash demand may face challenges due to potential float glass cold - repairs [1]. - **Strategies**: Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, with no specific cross - period or cross - variety strategies provided [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Silicon Manganese Market Analysis**: Based on steel consumption data, building material consumption was fair. Futures rebounded strongly with the black market. Spot prices were firm, but production and operating rates continued to decline due to losses. Inventory reached a new high, and port manganese ore inventory increased slightly, providing cost support. Prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to basis, manganese ore cost, and production changes [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis**: Futures rebounded with the black market. Spot prices were weakly stable with average trading volume. High production and inventory persisted, demand weakened marginally, and although inventory decreased slightly due to reduced operating rates, high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to cost factors and regional policies [3][4]. - **Strategies**: Both silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Views - The steel market is influenced by macro - expectations, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The consumption stability of finished products needs further observation, and attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - The iron ore market has a growing supply - demand contradiction with rising inventory. Some inventory is locked, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market is running in a volatile manner. The market sentiment is cautious. For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak prices. Downstream consumption is lower than expected, and inventory is relatively high. Long - term supply pattern changes and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be monitored [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,327 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally good, mainly for speculation and futures - spot trading, while rigid demand was average. Rebar prices in some regions were supported by mills. The national building materials trading volume was 124,959 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Finished product output increased slightly, inventory decline slowed, and consumption stability needs further observation. Plate inventory still exists, and its industrial - property consumption is expected to be better than that of finished products. With futures contract roll - over and positive macro - policies, market expectations remain. Attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were generally weak and stable with mediocre transactions. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports was 964,000 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with rising total inventory. Some inventory is locked due to non - market factors, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released. Attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: Driven by improved market sentiment, double - coking futures prices rebounded and showed a volatile trend. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, traders were cautious, and the market was quiet with falling port prices [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, market divergence on future prices has increased, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for both coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening, and the market is pessimistic. Downstream buyers mainly rely on long - term contracts. Some mines have inventory backlogs and fewer trucks for coal transportation. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, downstream demand is cold, and inventory is rising. Import coal tender prices are falling, and traders are cautious [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. In the long term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7].

2025 年 12 月 02 日 国 泰 君 安 期 工业硅：震荡偏弱 多晶硅：交易所限制开仓，情绪降温，盘面或 有大跌风险 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 9,145 | 15 | 205 | -10 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 216,787 | 18,896 | 2,775 | -104,204 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 203,274 | -8,525 | -59,402 | -24,490 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 57,705 | 1,280 | 4,390 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 338,696 | 157,433 | 150,820 | - | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Soda Ash: The current weak supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market has marginally eased but not fundamentally changed. In the short term, it will likely maintain a bottom - grinding and oscillating trend. In the medium - to - long - term, if there is a phased price rebound, a strategy of selling on rebounds can be adopted [9]. - Glass: The glass market is currently weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation pattern. In the short term, it will likely continue this trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production line cold repairs and changes in real estate demand [11]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On December 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1176 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.50%, with a daily reduction of 24,299 lots [8]. - Supply is decreasing, with this week's production falling below 700,000 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.60% week - on - week. Demand is weak, with total shipments down 3.65% week - on - week. Inventory decreased 1.75% week - on - week [9]. Glass - The glass market is weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation. Spot prices do not support the market, and the supply reduction from the concentrated production line shutdown in the Shahe area did not meet expectations [10][11]. - Supply is stable, and inventory pressure is high. Demand is weak, especially in the real estate market. However, due to low profits, about 5,000 tons of production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs by the end of the year [11]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass futures trading on December 1, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, change rate, open interest, and open interest change [7]. - It also includes figures related to soda ash and glass, such as price trends, weekly production, enterprise inventory, market price, and flat glass production [13][18][20]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约期货价格上涨 | 40 | 元至 | 2161 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格上 | | | | | | | | | | 涨 | 8 | 元至 | 2118 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 32099 | 手至 | 60.28 | 万手，空头持仓 | 减少 | 28993 | 手至 | 70.9 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 89.1%，环比+0.37%。海外甲醇开工率 | 66.9%，环比 | | | | | | | | | | | | -5.8%。 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 136.35 | 万吨，减少 | 11.58 | 万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different price trends and influencing factors. Overall, most varieties are expected to be in a state of shock, with some having upward or downward trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, the market showed shock and differentiation. Pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical buying, US soybeans and soybean oil rose last Friday. Yesterday, domestic oils and fats showed shock and differentiation, with rapeseed oil showing a weak shock. From a macro - environmental perspective, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and there may be progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The crude oil market faces geopolitical uncertainties, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the production forecast in 2026. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil fell slightly. From an industrial perspective, the planting of South American soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the planting of Brazilian soybeans is in the later stage. The planting of Argentine soybeans is expected to accelerate. As of the week of November 26, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans was 36%, with a five - year average of 37.24%. Continue to pay attention to China's procurement of US soybeans and changes in US biodiesel policies. Recently, the domestic soybean inventory is relatively high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is relatively large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the expected increase in the monthly output of Malaysian palm oil in November has narrowed. The output of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% month - on - month according to MPOA and decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The exports of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased by 19.7% and 15.9% according to ITS and AmSpec respectively. Since this year, the consumption of palm oil by Indonesian biodiesel has increased year - on - year, and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil has remained low. The import of Indian vegetable oil may decline seasonally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. However, with the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. Also, pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade relations and the import of Canadian rapeseed [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a strong shock, palm oil in a strong shock, and rapeseed oil in a shock. Recently, the sentiment in the oils and fats market has stabilized, the cost of domestic soybean oil continues to provide support, the domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil continues to de - stock. Continue to pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil in November [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is firm, the futures market shows a shock, and the basis of soybean meal has increased slightly [6]. - **Logic**: On December 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes. The average profit of China's imported soybean crushing was - 49.58 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.64 yuan/ton or - 20.32%. Internationally, the premium and discount spread between North and South American soybeans has narrowed, and attention should be paid to China's procurement. South American soybeans are affected by La Nina. The global agricultural meteorological report shows that in the next two weeks, there will be significant climate differentiation in the main agricultural areas of South America: continuous heavy rain in the central and northern parts of Brazil, increasing the risk of local floods, while the drought in Argentina and southern Brazil is deteriorating, increasing the growth pressure on new - season corn and soybeans. Overall, it is expected that US soybeans will operate in the range of [1100 - 1170]. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean inventory is high, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow, and the logic of futures - spot convergence dominates the narrow - range fluctuation of the January contract. In the medium term, China has returned to the US soybean market, and the procurement progress in January has exceeded 45%. The import of Australian seeds is expected to be strong. The inventory of soybean meal of downstream feed and breeding enterprises has increased year - on - year. Pay attention to the performance of the consumption peak season in December. It is expected that the basis of soybean meal will increase slightly, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract may widen. In the long term, whether the weather in South America is normal determines the price trend and increase or decrease of soybean meal [6][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to be in a shock. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased, China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and attention should be paid to the hype of La Nina for South American soybeans. It is expected that US soybeans will be in a high - level shock. The import crushing profit has been repaired, soybean procurement has accelerated, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal by oil mills is slow, downstream buyers have placed orders at low prices in the futures market, and spot transactions have increased, leading to an increase in the basis. It is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be in a range - bound shock. Pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the change of the main contract [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The price in the Northeast continues to strengthen, and pressure is beginning to appear in North China [8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices have shown mixed trends. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast has decreased significantly, and they have generally raised prices to increase the volume. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in North China is uneven, and enterprises adjust prices flexibly according to actual conditions. The arrival volume at ports has increased, and prices are temporarily stable under the support of demand. Recently, the futures and spot prices of corn have been strong. The core indicator supporting the strong price is the low - level operation of the inventory at northern ports, and this trend will temporarily continue. Due to the difference in grain quality structure and regional price spread, the outflow of corn from the Northeast is much higher than that of the same period last year, which is the core reason why the port inventory has not been accumulated. First, the quality of corn in North China is poor and the toxin content is high, so local corn cannot flow into the feed market in large quantities, resulting in feed enterprises in various places purchasing orders from the Northeast. Second, since the price of corn in the Northwest has been rising since the start of the purchase, the cost of traders is relatively high, and the price of corn in the Northwest is continuously inverted with the sales area, so it cannot supply the gap in the sales area in the short term. Therefore, the national demand depends on Northeast corn (with good quality and high bulk density) in the short term, resulting in a much higher outflow of Northeast corn than in previous years. In addition, many traders pre - sold corn (signed sales contracts but did not purchase) because the market was generally bearish before. As the contracts are approaching the expiration date, traders are rushing to purchase and ship the grain to fulfill the contracts; there are even cases of repeated purchases due to the tight transportation capacity, and the short - term concentrated demand has pushed up the price at northern ports. In North China, as the mainstream price in Shandong reaches 2300 yuan/ton, the market's reluctance to sell has been significantly alleviated, and the supply of wet corn has gradually increased, which will limit the further increase in prices. In the short term, the bullish driving force continues, and the price will maintain a strong shock. In the future, it is still necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of the downstream tense situation. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to remain in a high - level shock. Currently, it is a game between the realization of selling pressure and the inventory building of traders. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to changes in port inventory and wheat prices [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a shock. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the shock trend of the spot price will continue [9]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The pressure of slaughter remains, and the price is in a low - level shock [10]. - **Logic**: **Supply**: In the short term, the number of second - fattened pigs in late November decreased by 18% month - on - month, and large pigs were put on the market. In the medium term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still fluctuating at a high level, and the number of newly - born piglets from January to October continued to increase month - on - month. According to the breeding cycle, it is expected that the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be in excess until the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025. According to the samples of the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of sows decreased month - on - month from July to October, and the national sow inventory in October decreased to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Currently, the self - breeding and self - raising of pigs continue to be in a loss state. Driven by "policy + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. **Demand**: There is sporadic bacon - curing in the South, and the demand drive is still insufficient. **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight has increased for three consecutive weeks. **Rhythm**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, the inventory of large pigs is large, the slaughter weight of large - scale farms has increased, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased month - on - month but is still at a high level, the supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is weak. In the medium term, according to the production capacity realization cycle of sows and piglets, the supply of commercial pigs will remain at a high level before the first quarter of 2026, and the cycle is still in a downward trend. In the long term, the production capacity of sows in the country began to show signs of decline in the third quarter of 2025. Currently, driven by "anti - involution + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a weak shock. In the near - term, in the fourth quarter, pigs are still in the period of high - level production capacity realization, and the pressure of large - pig slaughter at the end of the year will continue to weaken the pig price. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture guides enterprises to reduce production, and the breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, which is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The price of far - month contracts is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It fell against the trend of industrial products, and the price is in a range - bound shock [12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the weakening of floods in Thailand, the pressure of increased output, the accumulation of inventory at domestic ports, and the weak trend of Japanese rubber, the price of natural rubber fell against the trend of industrial products yesterday. Recently, natural rubber has maintained a narrow - range shock pattern. Last week, the news of floods in the southern part of Thailand fermented, but the futures market did not respond accordingly. Instead, it oscillated downward under the influence of bearish news such as inventory accumulation, the addition of new delivery substitutes for NR, and the postponement of the EUDR confirmation. However, it was also supported by the downstream procurement enthusiasm and its relatively low valuation, and the decline was very limited. In the second half of the week, with the expectation of the flood receding in the production area and the gradual resumption of raw material procurement by processing plants, the futures market rebounded rapidly, but the upward pressure was still obvious. In the recent period, the futures market has basically maintained such a tug - of - war trend. Although the support below is strong and the long - term bullish consensus is high, it is also restricted by the current seasonal increase in output and the inventory - accumulation period. In the future, it is expected that there will be no strong unilateral driving force for the time being. Attention can be paid to the quantitative situation of domestic delivery products in mid - to - late December [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to maintain a wide - range shock with high elasticity, and it is still difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The driving force is not strong, and it maintains a follow - up shock [15]. - **Logic**: BR's price fell yesterday due to the weakening of natural rubber and its weak supply - demand situation. In the past two weeks, it has basically shown a shock - consolidation trend after rebounding from the listing low, but there is a lack of new marginal variables. It is waiting for new driving forces under the support of the natural rubber futures market and the good trading volume of butadiene. Although the short - term raw material pressure, especially the supply pressure shown by the butadiene port inventory, is relatively large, most of it has been reflected in the previous futures market's decline due to the expected increase in imports. So, for the time being, even if the raw material price has not improved and this price gives production enterprises a good processing profit, the futures market has not further traded this bearish situation. In the raw material market, the price of butadiene first fell and then rose last week, showing a slight shock overall. After the price was slightly pushed up in the early stage, there was a co - existence of the mentality of upstream enterprises to sell at high prices and downstream enterprises to buy at low prices, resulting in poor high - price transactions, and the market was under pressure to decline at the beginning of the week. However, the external market rose slightly during the week, and some domestic suppliers controlled the quantity and supported the price, driving the butadiene market to stop falling and oscillate in the middle of the week. Although there has been a continuous follow - up of rigid - demand buyers, the inventory has been at a high level recently, and the cautious supply - side expectation has also led to poor transactions of some slightly high - priced offers, and the market has maintained a small - range shock [15]. - **Outlook**: There is no upward driving force for the time being, and it is supported by natural rubber below. The futures market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The hedging pressure restricts the short - term upward height [15]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, new cotton is continuously being listed, and the inspection progress is faster than in previous years. The output of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the supply is continuously increasing. In terms of demand, affected by seasonal factors, the number of new orders has slightly decreased month - on - month recently, but the overall level is still good, and there is no obvious bearish or negative feedback on the demand side. In terms of inventory, according to BCO data, currently in the peak listing period, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously increasing, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing. However, the inventory as of mid - November has decreased year - on - year, indicating that the apparent demand for cotton is good, which supports the price. Recently, the 01 contract has continued to rebound, and the support below is obvious. However, as the price rises, the hedging pressure gradually increases, and the upward space is limited. Overall, the short - term rebound space of the 01 contract is limited; in the long term, the cotton price may maintain a shock - strong pattern, and the far - month contracts have long - position allocation value [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is in a range - bound shock; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern. It is advisable to buy on dips [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is in a low - level shock [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock. The core logic is that the global sugar market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Major producing countries such as Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The prospect of supply surplus makes the long - term price of domestic and international sugar have a downward driving force, so the general direction of the sugar price is downward. In addition, StoneX expects that Brazil may further increase production in the 26/27 crushing season, making the long - term price outlook rather pessimistic. Currently, the Northern Hemisphere has entered the new - season sugar production. According to Pan - Sugar Technology Information, as of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and 113 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India, have started production, with a cumulative cane crushing of 1.03582 million tons. As the supply