晨报 成材 成材：情绪回暖 小幅反弹 逻辑：当地时间 6 月 9 日至 10 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副 总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸 易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦 诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一 致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均 钢坯含税成本 2832 元/吨，周环比下调 30 元/吨，与 6 月 11 日当前普方 坯出厂价格 2920 元/吨相比，钢厂平均盈利 88 元/吨，周环比增加 60 元/ 吨。6 月 11 日，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税累计上调 20，报 2920 元/ 吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 成材昨日反弹，中美会谈达成原则一致，市场情绪小幅回升。但目前 已进入需求淡季，短期来看下游难有有效改善，且仍有进一步下降空间。 根据当前情况看，仍建议反弹逢高试空。 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-626 ...

沪指重回 3400 点，创业板指领涨 证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 12 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3402.32 | 0.52% | 17.50 | | | 深证成指 | 10246.02 | 0.83% | 83.84 | | | 沪深 300 | 3894.63 | 0.75% | 29.16 | | | 创业板 | 2061.87 | 1.21% | 24.60 | | | 科创 50 | 980.93 | -0.20% | -1.97 | | | 北证 50 | 1427.91 | 0.00% | -0.01 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.21% | 医药 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move sideways, and treasury bonds are expected to strengthen sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for light - short attempts, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be weak in a sideways trend; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have a wide - range sideways movement [1][19][21][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a sideways trend, apples are expected to move sideways, and PTA is expected to move sideways within a range [1][35][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies, corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360], soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips, and oils are recommended for shorting on rallies [1][38][40][42]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. It suggests that different futures markets will show different trends, such as sideways movement, strengthening, or weakening, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". After the negotiation benefits come to an end, the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts, and domestic stock indices are expected to move sideways [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the continuous loosening of the capital market, rumors of continued inquiry and renewal of repurchase - style reverse repos, and the conclusion of Sino - US consultations, the market's buying power has further increased. The bond market is expected to strengthen sideways, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The fundamentals show that the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. In the later stage, there may be a slight accumulation of inventory. It is expected that the price will move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is supported by steel mill production and Sino - US negotiations. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is more affected by macro - news. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended to observe [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose. The short - term market is expected to continue to move sideways. Attention should be paid to factors such as coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [8][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not made a breakthrough, but the US information is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. The domestic copper market has low inventory and weak consumption. It is expected to move sideways at a high level, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: Guinea's mine - end disturbances have not yet affected the current supply of bauxite, but the impact cannot be ignored. The downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is complex. The nickel ore market is tight, but the downstream demand is weak. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected to move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies [14]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, but the US tariff policy suppresses downstream demand. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: US economic data shows resilience, and the tariff policy causes market concerns. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices of precious metals. It is expected that the prices will continue to move sideways, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the supply pressure is large. The inventory is currently being reduced, and the macro - factors are dominant. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation progress and domestic stimulus policies [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The non - aluminum off - season reduces the purchasing willingness for high - priced caustic soda. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is affected by the strong oil price and is expected to continue to rebound, but the overall valuation is high, and the supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [25]. - **Rubber**: The terminal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals lack effective drivers. It is expected to move sideways, and attention should be paid to macro - news [26]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is limited. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to be weak in a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [29]. - **Methanol**: The supply is loose, the main downstream demand is okay, but there are maintenance plans for olefin devices, and the traditional downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend [31]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure remains, the demand enters the traditional off - season, and the inventory has different trends. It is expected to move sideways in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and domestic policies [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, the downstream market is not good, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [34]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but the recent improvement in Sino - US relations is expected to cause the cotton price to rebound in a sideways trend [35]. - **Apples**: The trading atmosphere in the apple market is average, and the market is affected by factors such as the off - season and the impact of other fruits. It is expected to move sideways [35]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure. It is expected to move sideways within a range [36]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term pig price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and it is recommended to short on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply pressure may be relieved. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [41]. - **Corn**: The short - term market supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. The medium - and long - term supply - demand tightens, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to operate within a range and pay attention to substitutes [43]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by US soybean weather, and the medium - and long - term is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [45]. - **Oils**: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed. Different oils have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [50].

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 11 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.2%至 79290 元/吨。中美 经贸磋商机制首次会议进入第二天，尚未取得任何突破，但美方信息偏 于乐观。市场预期美国将在对钢铝收关税后对铜也加征关税推动铜流向 美国，LME 铜库存过去三个月里减少了一半，美国 COMEX 期铜较 LME 期铜的升水达到每吨 1067 美元，但近期市场对于纽伦套利交易兴趣有 所下降。国内现货市场，铜价震荡上涨，下游消费难有明显提升，但社 库维持低位运行，现货升水于平水附近拉锯，BACK 月差收敛，持货商 低价出货意愿有限。铜矿冶炼 TC 负值低位对供应前景带来持续压力， 中美经贸谈判带来希望，近期国内经济数据继续萎靡，旺季转淡以及低 库存等因素交织，铜价或继续维持高位震荡运行。技术上看，沪铜短期 维持偏强震荡，整体运行于 77500-80000 之间，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 11 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 1.25%至 20250 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发 货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，金价冲高回 落，上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势 | 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：美国 5 月通胀低于市场预期，数据公布后，美元美债收益 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 12日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 观点参考 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅反弹。股市全市场成交额 12866 亿元，较上日缩量 1646 亿元。目 前中美经贸磋商结果仍具有较高不确定性，市场情绪以等待观 ...

政策面的「导航仪」指向三个方向。第一个是中美经贸磋商，稀土和半导体设备出口是焦点。中方已经向美国三大车企发放稀土材料临时出口许可，涉及12 类磁体组件，有效期到年底。昨天中科磁业涨停，北方稀土跟涨，说明资金已经在埋伏稀土反制预期。第二个是氢能试点，国家能源局明确了绿电制氢和园 区零碳两大方向，厚普股份、雪人股份这些设备商可能会有资金抢筹。第三个是地方专项债，6月前两周已经发行了1800亿，基建板块里的中国交建、中国 铁建这些大块头，可能会成为指数稳定器。 板块轮动这块儿，早盘重点看科技和券商能不能共振。AI算力产业链（中际旭创、中科曙光）受益于英伟达Blackwell芯片交付临近，可能会有资金点火。 防御性板块里，长江电力股息率超5%，沪农商行低估值高分红，适合避险资金配置。风险「刹车」得踩稳两个点：一是解禁压力，寒武纪、中芯国际今天 有大额解禁，可能会压制半导体板块的流动性。二是汇率波动，离岸人民币目前在7.25附近震荡，要是跌破这个关口，北向资金可能会反手做空，得盯着早 盘半小时的北向流向。 最后给大伙儿划个重点：今儿个的关键在量能！如果早盘首小时成交额能突破3800亿，指数可能去摸3417点；要是量能萎 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant progress made in the US-China trade negotiations, with both sides reaching a preliminary agreement framework during the meetings held in London on June 9-10, 2023 [1][4][5] - The negotiations involved deep discussions on key technical issues, indicating a serious commitment from both parties to resolve trade disputes [4][6] - The agreement framework is expected to include considerations for the removal of certain export controls and technology restrictions by the US, particularly in the semiconductor and aerospace sectors, while China may ease restrictions on rare earth exports [5][10] Group 2 - The US holds a significant advantage in advanced semiconductor technology, while China dominates the rare earth market, which is crucial for various industries [6][11] - The negotiations are seen as a positive signal for global economic stability, emphasizing the importance of a sustainable and mutually beneficial bilateral trade relationship [6][14] - The article highlights that the US's recent actions, which contradict the agreements made, could undermine the progress achieved in the negotiations [8][9] Group 3 - China's strategic use of its rare earth resources has been effective in compelling the US to return to the negotiation table, showcasing China's dominant position in this sector [10][12] - The article suggests that the US's reliance on China for rare earth materials could take at least a decade to overcome, indicating the critical nature of this resource in the US supply chain [11] - The overall sentiment is that the US needs China more than vice versa in the context of trade negotiations, with China maintaining a strong negotiating position [13][14]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 12 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】周三 A 股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，上证综指涨 0.52%，深成指涨 0.83%，创业板指涨 1.21%。全市场成交额 12,866 亿元，较上日减少 1,646 亿元。全市场超 3,400 只个股上涨。板块题 材上，稀土永磁、能源金属、汽车零部件板块涨幅居前；CRO 概念、 板块跌幅居前。 【重要新闻】 【中美经贸磋商机制首次会议举行，中美原则上达成协议框架】当地 时间 2025 年 6 月 9 日至 10 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理 何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸 易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行 了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实 两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施 框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] | ...

截至6月11日收盘，上证综指涨0.52%，报3402.32点；科创50指数跌0.2%，报980.93点；深证成指涨 0.83%，报10246.02点；创业板指涨1.21%，报2061.87点。 美东时间11日，美股三大股指集体下跌。截至收盘，标普500指数跌0.27%，纳指跌0.5%，道指微幅下 跌。据美联社报道，通胀数据好于预期，引发华尔街对美联储可能在年底前至少两次下调主要利率的预 期。不过，核心通胀率仍顽固地高于美联储2%的目标，这使得美联储下调关键短期利率的可能性较 小。 国际油价11日显著上涨。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.17美元， 收于每桶68.15美元，涨幅为4.88%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.90美元，收于每桶69.77 美元，涨幅为4.34%。 【财经要闻】 1、据央视新闻，当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会 议。双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话 重要共识 ...