Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of reciprocal tariffs Futures Prices: On July 30, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities gained, with poly-silicon, coke and coal leading the gains. Commentary: Poly-Silicon, Silicon Metal, Lithium Carbonate 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend - bearish products such as aluminum, zinc, and alumina; products with a bias towards a downward - oscillating trend like liquefied petroleum gas; oscillating products including thirty - year bonds and sugar; products with a bias towards an upward - oscillating trend such as crude oil and fuel oil; and no products with a trend - bullish view [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are products with a bearish bias like corn starch and glass; oscillating products such as Shanghai gold and palm oil; and products with a bullish bias like Shanghai lead and Shanghai copper [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - China's policies include implementing more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, addressing local government debt risks, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US imposed tariffs on multiple products. China plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for parenting subsidies, and relevant industries plan to control over - capacity [9][10][11]. Stock Index Futures - Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. The A - share market showed mixed trends, and the capital market has new policy expressions. Be cautious about the movement of profit - taking funds [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Policy implementation may repair inflation expectations, and the bond market may rebound. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level. In the medium term, consider shorting on rallies [15]. Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward price pressures. Be cautious in operation [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Costs vary, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and it is advisable to be bearish on rallies [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass can be put on hold after closing long positions. Pay attention to supply - side resumption and demand improvement [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Both can be shorted on rallies [21]. - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices will oscillate downward due to increased supply and weak demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly oscillate due to limited supply - side disturbances and weakening macro - sentiment [23]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It will maintain an oscillating trend, and the core contradiction lies in the resumption progress of leading manufacturers [24]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a strong policy expectation but a weak supply - demand reality. Be cautious in operation and pay attention to policy implementation and inventory generation [25]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is advisable to be bearish on rallies and pay attention to macro and supply - demand changes [26]. Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic sugar prices are under pressure from imports but supported by low domestic inventories. It will follow international sugar prices [29]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are in a seasonal upward trend, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to position control [33]. - **Apples**: Consider a long - spread strategy and pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [34]. - **Corn**: Corn prices will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to market sentiment and policy impacts [34]. - **Red Dates**: Observe the fruit - setting situation in the production area and changes in the market [37]. - **Hogs**: Short near - month contracts and consider a reverse - spread strategy. The short - term market is supply - strong and demand - weak [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. In the short term, it may rebound due to sanctions on Russia. Pay attention to sanctions and peak - season demand [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows crude oil prices. The cracking profit is weakening, and pay attention to the impact of power generation demand and shipping [41]. - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is advisable to be slightly bearish after a rebound [43]. - **Methanol**: It follows the overall commodity trend and is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider holding put options or being slightly bearish [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures may be strong in the short term [45]. - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is significantly affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Consider shorting on rallies [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It rebounds with crude oil but is weaker. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term [49]. - **Pulp**: It will oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions [50]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are supply - and - demand weak. Be cautious about chasing high prices and consider hedging strategies [51]. - **Urea**: Be bearish as enterprise inventories increase and the market is weak [52].

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, focusing on the economic situation and planning for the second half of 2025[2] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and adapt as necessary, with a focus on unleashing domestic demand and preventing risks in key sectors[2] - The meeting's outcomes are expected to enhance the certainty of future economic development, aligning with market expectations[2] U.S. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change[3] - There is an increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members opposing the rate decision, suggesting a potential for future rate cuts if economic slowdown continues[3] - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on inflation trends, with indications that the impact of tariffs on prices may take longer than anticipated[3] Commodity and Industry Updates - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new capacities in copper smelting and alumina, addressing over-investment in certain sectors[4] - U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper futures falling over 18%[4] - Major memory manufacturers are exiting niche DRAM markets, which may lead to price increases for DDR4 DRAM in 2025 and 2026 due to supply-demand reversals[5] Market Performance Indicators - The latest 10-year government bond yield is at 1.727%, with a change of -1.41 basis points[6] - The USDCNH exchange rate is at 7.2123, reflecting a 0.44% increase, while the U.S. dollar index stands at 99.97, up by 1.06%[8] - The A-share market's trading volume over the past six months is reported at 1.871 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.11%[17] Industry Trends - The top three performing sectors are steel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and media, indicating strong sectoral performance[22] - The net capital inflow for the top three sectors on a given day includes media, food and beverage, and social services, suggesting investor interest in these areas[24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].

21世纪经济报道记者曹恩惠 自光伏产业掀起整治无序竞争的浪潮以来，多晶硅的价格走势被视作观察"反内卷"进程的信号。 | 国内太阳能级多晶硅成交价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产品 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 均价 | 波动 | 波动% | | n型复投料成交价 | 4.90 | 4.50 | 4.71 | +0.03 | +0.64% | | n型致密料成交价 | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.39 | +0.01 | +0.23% | | p型多晶硅成交价 | | | | | | | n型颗粒硅成交价 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.03 | +0.68% | | 单位:万元/吨 | | | | 更新日期: | 2025-7-30 | 截至7月30日国内多晶硅报价图片来源：中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会 7月30日，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（下称硅业分会）公布了最新的多晶硅价格数据。本周，本周多晶硅N型复投料成交价格区间为4.5万-4.9万元/ 吨，成交均价为4.71万元/吨，周环比上涨0.64%。N型颗粒硅 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and lay a solid institutional foundation for high-quality economic development [1] - The current market faces issues such as local trade protection, high industry entry barriers, and household registration system restrictions, which hinder the free flow of goods and factors [1] - To improve market economic efficiency and release scale effects and division of labor dividends, it is essential to eliminate these barriers [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of regulating "disorderly competition" among enterprises, suggesting that a clear definition of "disorderly competition" is necessary to avoid a one-size-fits-all approach in governance [1] - It is recommended to refine rules to distinguish between legitimate and malicious competition, aiming to curb disruptive market behaviors while protecting corporate innovation vitality [1] - In terms of capacity governance, addressing excess capacity and reducing low-level competition is crucial for stabilizing macroeconomic conditions and promoting high-quality industry development [2] Group 3 - The article highlights the need for standardized policies to regulate local government investment attraction behaviors, as excessive competition among local governments can burden finances and disrupt fair market conditions [2] - Establishing a unified policy benchmark is necessary to prevent local governments from engaging in harmful competition through "policy lowlands," ensuring that all enterprises compete on an equal footing [2] - Emphasizing the importance of the "two unwavering" principles, the article suggests that enhancing the operational confidence of private enterprises is vital for current economic development [2]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with coking coal futures declining again, hovering around the 10-day moving average, and once dropping over 4% to 1099 yuan [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing as coking enterprises are cautious about high-priced coal procurement due to profit considerations, leading to a mixed performance in auction prices [1] - The overall operating rate of 110 washing plants across the country has decreased by 0.8% to 61.51%, with daily output down by 0.01 million tons to 52.14 million tons [1] Group 2 - Hualian Futures expects a strong short-term coking coal market, predicting a rebound followed by a stable oscillation, with coal mine operating rates continuing to rise and daily output increasing [2] - The demand for coking coal is supported by strong steel production, with the fourth round of price increases for coking coal already implemented and expectations for a fifth round [2] - Nanhua Futures notes that the recovery of domestic coal mines is slow, but the demand for coking coal is being boosted by speculative trading and essential procurement [3] Group 3 - Zijin Tianfeng Futures indicates that the supply and demand for coking coal remain tight, with recent market sentiment showing significant fluctuations, making it prone to corrections after rapid increases [4] - The recovery of domestic coal supply is slower than expected, while the import of Mongolian coal has resumed quickly after the Nadam Festival [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for coking coal is tight, with upstream inventories continuing to transfer to downstream, indicating a smooth coal mine shipment process [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 maintained the tone from April, emphasizing stable demand and high-quality development, focusing on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" [6] - GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with a projected 4.7% growth in the second half, aiming for an overall target of around 5% for the year [6] - The importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" was highlighted, with a shift towards balancing qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth [6] Group 2: Policy Measures - Macro policies will focus on implementing existing measures, with limited new demand-side policies anticipated [6] - Consumer spending is expected to be supported by potential new policies for service consumption, with "old-for-new" programs showing a 11.4% year-on-year growth in related retail categories [6] - Investment will continue to prioritize "two heavy" projects, with a focus on infrastructure while avoiding new hidden debts [6] Group 3: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy is expected to utilize structural tools rather than interest rate cuts, with no anticipated rate decrease in Q3 [6] - The fiscal deficit usage rate for the first half of the year was 33.3%, indicating room for increased spending in the second half [6] - The emphasis on "people-oriented" fiscal measures reflects a shift towards consumption-driven growth, including subsidies for specific vulnerable groups [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The term "low-price" was removed from discussions on competition, indicating a shift in focus due to rising prices in many goods [7] - The need for coordinated supply and demand improvements to address price volatility was emphasized, with a focus on rational pricing [7] - The adjustment in capacity governance reflects a more complex landscape compared to previous reforms, requiring time for supply-demand balance improvements [7]

Long-term Planning - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized long-term planning, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a core topic for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October[1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of new productive forces in the context of technological competition, particularly in the U.S.-China rivalry[2] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, with a nominal GDP target of approximately 140 trillion yuan for the full year[3] - The government anticipates maintaining a steady economic trend in the second half, with a target GDP growth of around 5%[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting called for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the effective implementation of existing policies rather than new stimulus measures[4] - As of June 2025, new local government special bond issuance exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase from 1.5 trillion yuan in the same period last year[4] Domestic Consumption - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to the economy in the first half of 2025, with service trade retail growing by 5.3% and goods retail by 5.1%[7] - The government aims to enhance service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, supported by policies aimed at improving living standards[7] Industry Capacity Management - The meeting stressed the need for capacity governance in key industries, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, to eliminate outdated production capacity[8] - Regulatory measures will focus on enhancing industry standards and preventing redundant capacity construction[8] Foreign Trade Support - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline from a growth rate of 5.6% in March to -9.9% in June, while overall export growth remained at 7.2%[10] - The government is implementing financial policies to support foreign trade enterprises affected by external pressures, focusing on relief rather than filling external demand gaps[10] Capital Market Development - The government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 7.8% by the end of July 2025[12] - Future policies will support technology-driven and growth-oriented enterprises, with expectations for increased dividend payouts to attract long-term capital[12]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/30 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,483 | -20↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1573214 | -39485↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -104,806 | -23776↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -12 | -8↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单 ...