1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall outlook of stronger operation due to increased geopolitical risks [1] - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US pressure on Venezuela may lead to a global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices, and the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a stable pattern on Wednesday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to show a stronger trend, with a reference view of stronger operation [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement Driving Logic - The main driving force for the recent oil price rebound is the sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation. The US government has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela's oil exports in November were about 600,000 barrels per day. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a global supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices [5]

全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust持仓增加12.02吨，至1064.56吨，为2022年6月以来新高，这不仅 是10月17日以来最大单日增幅，也印证了央行购金需求和避险资金流入的强劲势头。 全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust单日增持超533吨，创近两年最大增幅，总持仓达16599.25吨， 显示强劲买入意愿。 特朗普表示将扣押委内瑞拉附近船只的石油，甚至警告委内瑞拉总统马杜罗这是其"最后机会"。这一举 动被委内瑞拉斥为"海盗行径"，其外交部长在新闻发布会上宣读公报，谴责美国单边制裁对地区和国际 法的践踏。委内瑞拉方面指出，美国在加勒比地区发动的28起武装行动已造成104人死亡，并导致400万 桶原油无法正常运输。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 当前美国经济运行和就业市场持续结构性分化但总体衰退风险不大，美联储未来在衡量就业的通胀目标 问题上仍有分歧态度趋于谨慎，但市场对货政宽松预期在"影子主席"言论叠加美联储独立性受到威胁影 响下可能升温，资金情绪的影响还有贸易和地缘风险的扰动或使金价中长期上涨空间可观。短期市场或 消化美国就业市场重新回到低供应+低增长的新平衡市场风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold continues to rise, reaching a new historical high of $4497.754 per ounce, with a current price of $4475.24 per ounce, reflecting a 0.72% increase [1][8]. Gold Market Performance - COMEX gold futures initially broke through the $4500, $4510, and $4520 per ounce levels before retreating, currently priced at $4507.8 per ounce, up 0.5% [3][8]. - On December 22, spot gold surpassed $4400 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.13% to $4480.6 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce, indicating the potential for the largest annual gains since 1979 [3][9]. Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with several brands exceeding 1400 yuan per gram. For instance, Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have raised their prices to 1403 yuan per gram, while Lao Miao Gold has increased its price to 1402 yuan per gram [3][10]. Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals have also seen significant increases, with spot silver reaching $70 per ounce for the first time on December 23. Additionally, platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit their daily limit of 10%, marking new highs since their listing [10]. Market Regulation Measures - In response to the overheated trading environment, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has set a position limit of 500 contracts for non-futures company members or clients for platinum and palladium contracts [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented several risk prevention measures for silver futures, including adjustments to trading limits and transaction fees, aimed at cooling the market and promoting rational trading [11]. Economic Indicators and Predictions - Analysts note that the U.S. November CPI and core CPI growth rates have dropped to multi-year lows, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy, alongside geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases supporting rising precious metal prices [11]. - According to Bloomberg's forecast, both gold and silver are expected to experience their strongest annual gains since 1979, with gold prices having surged approximately two-thirds this year due to central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [11][12]. Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against concerns over the value of sovereign bonds and currencies, driven by "devaluation trades" [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting that current forecasts may underestimate risks and highlighting a potential shift towards broader asset diversification among private investors [12][13]. Risks and Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley warns that high silver prices may negatively impact photovoltaic demand, while cautioning about potential technical selling pressure from the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starting January 8, which could lead to significant forced selling in silver and gold [13].

新华财经北京12月23日电上周（12月15日-19日）现货黄金呈现"高位震荡、尾盘蓄力"格局，截至12月 23日亚洲时段早盘，现货黄金高点逼近4500美元／盎司，为后续进一步突破奠定基础。 但短线也需同时重点关注以下情况：一是高位获利回吐压力，金价突破4400美元后部分资金可能锁定利 润，导致短期震荡加剧；二是节日流动性不足，圣诞假期临近，市场交投活跃度下降，可能引发局部波 动放大；三是技术面超买回调需求，日线级别虽维持多头排列，但短期涨幅过大，需警惕4350美元支撑 位的有效性。 分析来看，当前贵金属板块普涨的驱动核心驱动因素仍集中于美国经济放缓和政策宽松预期，以及地缘 局势紧张和资金配置需求带来的贵金属买盘。 具体来看，其一，美联储宽松政策持续加码。2025年12月美联储完成年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率 降至3.5%-3.75%，同时重启400亿美元短期国债购买的"准QE"操作，市场押注2026年美联储将再降息 100个基点，显著降低黄金持有成本。其二，美国经济数据强化宽松预期。最新公布的美国11月失业率 升至4.6%的四年新高，核心CPI低于市场预期，显示劳动力市场降温与通胀可控，为美联储后续降息提 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增加，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美委局势骤然升级，是本次油价反弹最直接、最强劲的驱动力。美国特朗普政府对 委内瑞拉的施压力度空前加大，不仅下令"全面彻底封锁"进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，还计划扣 押更多委内瑞拉油轮。据估算，美国已 ...

Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - On December 22, the Shanghai gold futures main contract reported at 1000.86 CNY per gram, with an increase of 2.10%, opening at 979.90 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1000.86 CNY and a low of 978.32 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - New York Fed President Williams stated that there is no urgent need for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as previous cuts have positioned the policy favorably. The November CPI report was distorted due to government shutdown, but core inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, and the labor market is adjusting smoothly [1] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in the first half of next year, with a 50% chance of a cut in June [1] - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with the U.S. strengthening its blockade on Venezuela and potentially declaring war, which has boosted safe-haven sentiment and contributed to rising precious metal prices [1] - According to Bloomberg data, gold ETFs have recorded inflows for five consecutive weeks, and the World Gold Council reports that total holdings of these funds have increased every month this year except for May [1] Group 3: Institutional Views - After nearly a month of consolidation, gold has finally broken upward, reaching a new historical high, with both gold and silver entering a dual upward cycle. This upward trend is expected to continue, but short-term volatility may increase, necessitating risk control [1]

黄金方面： 当地时间12月21日，美乌代表在美国进行了一系列的会谈。声明表示，完善了20点和平计划，并制订乌克兰战后经济发展计 划。当天俄罗斯总统助理表示，俄美乌举行三方会晤的事情，并没有在会议中讨论，和平谈判没有实质的进展。 最近几个月，美国以打击毒品恐怖主义为由，在委内瑞拉附近部署军队，迄今已在加勒比海和东太平洋击沉近30艘。特朗普多 次威胁对委境内毒贩发起打击，局势再次升级。 原油方面： 近两日美军对委内瑞拉的封锁再升级，随着美国总统特朗普加强对马杜罗政府的石油封锁，美国仍在追踪委内瑞拉附近的油 轮，上周六凌晨再次扣押了一艘超级油轮。 特朗普一直试图扼杀马杜罗政府的财政收入，以此加大施压力度。如果委内瑞拉无法出口石油，其储油罐将被滞留，委内瑞拉 的石油公司将不得不开始关闭油井。 在俄乌局势陷入胶着的情况下，和平进程没有实质的进展；委内瑞拉的局势升级，可能会严重地削减该国的石油出口，油价受 此影响，小幅上涨得到提振。 技术面：周线收下影线较长的小阴线。日线级别显示，市场在年内低位55美元附近进行整理。1小时级别，价格突破60/120日均 线，市场可能形成短期上升趋势。今日下方关注56.50美元的支撑，上方 ...

分析师指出，黄金的未来上涨将依赖于美联储的宽松步伐、地缘风险的演变以及全球经济复苏的速度。 如果降息预期兑现，黄金不仅能维持当前涨幅，还可能开启新一轮牛市。 此外，房地产市场数据也间接影响黄金走势。11月美国成屋销售环比小幅增长0.5%，折合年率413万 户，但经济不确定性和高抵押贷款利率抑制了需求，库存触及八个月低点。这反映出消费者信心低迷。 上周黄金市场延续拉升过程，周初开盘在4300.1的位置后行情先拉升给出4351的高低后行情快速回落， 周线最低给到了4371.1的位置后行情展开拉升过程，到周四周线最高触及到了4374.5的位置后整理，周 线最终收线在了4338.6的位置后，周线以一根上影线稍长于下影线的纺锤形态收线，而这样的形态收尾 后，下方3325和3322的多和3368-3370的多和3377和3385多和3563的多减仓后止损跟进在4000持有，前 一周4176和4174的多和4187和4184的多以及4208和4205多止损跟进在4220持有，上周4310的多减仓后止 损放到4310，今日的行情4320多止损4314，目标看4340和4352和4360-4374和4381压力争夺。 周一(1 ...

关注数据连续性风险：政府停摆等因素可能影响宏观数据，应以趋势和多指标交叉验证为判断依据。 地缘风险溢价仍存：东欧、中东及能源相关事件仍可能对黄金、原油及部分避险货币产生阶段性冲击。 UNFX12月22日讯 在本轮三次累计降息完成后，美联储内部对于未来政策路径的分歧逐渐显现。克利 夫兰联储行长贝丝·哈马克指出，短期内没有必要进一步调整利率，更倾向于维持在3.50%—3.75%的区 间；纽约联储主席威廉姆斯也表达了类似"暂停"的立场。同时，白宫关于下一任美联储主席的人选讨论 持续发酵，政治因素叠加政策信号，使市场对未来利率走势的定价更为谨慎。 12月例会后出现三张反对票，点阵图中亦显示多位官员对进一步降息持保留态度。哈马克表示，在通胀 回落尚未确认、就业市场无明显恶化前，应维持利率稳定；她还提醒，11月CPI可能因政府停摆导致数 据缺失而被低估。威廉姆斯则认为，累计降息已为经济提供一定缓冲，短期无需进一步行动。政治层 面，特朗普公开表示将任命一位支持大幅降息的美联储主席，哈塞特与沃什仍在白宫候选名单中。市场 因此面临双重博弈：一是官员表态与经济数据形成的现实约束，二是潜在人事安排可能在中长期重新影 响政策预期。C ...

今日周一(12月22日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于68.23一线上方，今日开盘于67.32美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报68.52美元/盎司，上涨2.07%，最高触及68.65美元/盎司，最低下探67.26美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 中东局势的紧张进一步放大地缘风险。12月21日，以色列国防军连续对黎巴嫩南部发动空袭，针对黎巴 嫩真主党成员，这可能引发更广泛的地区冲突。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银看涨不猜顶，保持强劲，银价创下新高，目前到了68，下一波就可能看到70高点。本周下方支 撑关注两个点，一个是66.5，一个是64.5，今日国际白银下方关注67.00美元或66.60美元支撑，上方关注 68.20美元或69.30美元阻力。 当地时间12月21日，以色列国防军发表声明称，当天在加沙地带北部的行动中，发现数名可疑人员在军 事停火线"黄线"附近聚集。以军随即实施警告射击，但仍有3名武装人员越过"黄线"并向以军靠近，对 以军构成"直接威胁"。以军随后出动战机将其打死。 此外，声明还称，在加沙地带北部发生的另外两起事件中，以军部队也分别发现2名越过"黄线" ...