地缘风险反复，铂钯延续上行 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年2⽉3⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价599. 85元/克，涨幅6.73%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为461元/克，涨幅 6.29%。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-05 铂观点：地缘风险扰动叠加宏观预期向好，铂金震荡偏强 主要逻辑：据央视网2月4日报道，美军在阿拉伯海附近击落一架伊朗无人 机，地缘风险再度升温，市场避险情绪受到提振，带动铂价延续反弹走 势。此外，美国对铂钯加征关税，以及西方可能对俄罗斯产铂族金属实施 新一轮制裁的预期仍在持续，短期内铂价或将维持震荡偏强格局，投资者 可关注择机低吸布局机会。需要注意的是，当前市场整体波动率仍处于较 高水平，建议投资者谨慎操作，合理控制仓位。展望未来，供给方面，南 非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风 险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求 保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同 时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transportation ETF (561320) surged by 3% due to escalating geopolitical risks, which have led to volatility in tanker freight rates driven by panic stockpiling, decreased passage efficiency, and increased insurance premiums [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Freight Rates - Geopolitical risks have intensified, causing tanker freight rates to exhibit high volatility and significant risk premium attributes [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include panic stockpiling, decreased passage efficiency, and soaring insurance premiums [1] Group 2: Dry Bulk Market Performance - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown strong performance despite the off-season, indicating a robust market trend this year [1] - The performance of the Supramax shipping rates has been particularly notable, driven by supply-side disruptions from storms and high waves, leading to temporary capacity tightness [1] - On the demand side, smooth exports of iron ore from Brazil and continued volume from West African bauxite have supported this strong performance [1] Group 3: Transportation Index Overview - The transportation ETF (561320) tracks the mainland transportation index (000945), which includes various transportation companies operating in mainland China, such as rail, road, sea, and air transport [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of China's transportation industry and includes representative stocks that illustrate the development status and market trends of different transportation modes [1]

消息面上，地缘局势严峻，美伊对峙升温。受消息影响，国际油价应声上涨。 油气ETF汇添富（159309）标的指数成分股多数飘红，中国石化、广汇能源涨超2%，招商轮船、洲际油气、招商南油涨超1%。 2月4日，地缘局势严峻加剧，能源、油气板块大涨！能源ETF（159930）大涨近4%，油气ETF汇添富（159309）涨近3%！资金持续增仓，油气ETF汇添富 （159309）近20日有19日获净流入，累计"吸金"超5.8亿元！ | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 = 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 | | | 工肖 令 ② >> | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159309.SZ[油气ETF汇添富] 2026/02/04 收 1.374 幅 2.77%(0.037) 开 1.357 高 1.374 | | | 低1.350 均 WP | | | | MA5 1.364↓ MA10 1.346↑ MA20 1.288↑ MA60 1.177↑ MA120 1.106↑ MA250 1.025↑ | | | (62日)▼ m | | | | 1.4 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二夜盘主力合约期货 | BZ2603 | 价格上涨 | 98 | 元至 | 6137 | 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 格 | 6065 | 元/吨（环比+75），山东地区现货价格 | 6118 | 元/吨（环比-17）。持仓方面， | 多头减少 | 1504 | 手至 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/04 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/28 | 63.21 | 68.40 | 61.88 | 1.57 | 1.03 | -5.19 | 2.68 | 189.23 | 11.08 | 266.61 | 43.58 | | 2026/01/29 | 65.42 | 70.71 | 62.01 | 1.35 | 1.12 | -5.29 | 2.80 | 192.00 | 9.93 | 258.54 | 37.88 | | 2026/01/3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。经历短期大幅回调以后，油市利空情绪得到释放。由于中东地缘风险依然存在，且 北半球处在冬季用油旺季阶段，偏多氛 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二瓶片主力价格上涨 | 16 | 元至 | 6120 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6205 | 元/吨（+35）， | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 华南瓶片价格 | 6275 | 元/吨（+25）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 6518 | 手至 | 6.97 | 万手， | 空头持仓增加 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年02月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | なな女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | 女女女 | | | 菜油 | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,国产大豆计划拍卖60608吨,全部成交,底价 4050元/吨，成交均价4298元/吨，溢价210-310元/吨。近期地缘与宏观风险事件比较集中,且方向尚不明确, ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has led to significant shifts in the gold and precious metals market, with expectations of tighter monetary policy impacting prices [1][3]. Market Data - On February 3, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 1093.78 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.63% with a trading volume of 726,056 lots and an open interest of 179,295 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1097.00 yuan per gram, indicating a premium of 3.22 yuan per gram over the futures price [1]. Political Context - Trump's nomination of Warsh has faced resistance within the Republican Party, with Senator Thom Tillis stating opposition to any Fed nominee until the investigation into Powell is resolved [2]. - Senator Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has indicated a desire for a careful and timely confirmation process for Warsh [2]. - Senator Warren has criticized the nomination as part of Trump's broader strategy to exert control over the Federal Reserve [2]. Market Reaction - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, with a notable shift in market sentiment driven by macroeconomic expectations and technical corrections [3]. - Warsh is known for his "hawkish" stance, advocating for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, which has heightened expectations for tighter monetary policy and strengthened the dollar [3]. - The rapid price decline in precious metals was exacerbated by leveraged positions being liquidated and algorithmic trading, prompting exchanges to raise margin requirements as a risk management measure [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, structural factors supporting the long-term outlook for precious metals remain intact, suggesting a complex consolidation phase ahead [3].