Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, with respective 2025 PE ratios of 18x, 18x, and 11x [11][27]. Core Insights - Nike's FY2026 Q1 revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year to $11.7 billion, with a net profit decline of 31% to $727 million. The company anticipates a low single-digit revenue decline for FY2026 Q2, while wholesale business revenue is expected to see moderate growth [1][16]. - The report highlights the ongoing inventory reduction efforts across major regions, with North America showing a 4% revenue increase, while the Greater China region experienced a 10% revenue decline [23][24]. - The sportswear segment is expected to outperform the broader apparel market, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-5 for major brands [3][24]. Summary by Sections Nike's Performance - Nike's North America revenue grew by 4% year-on-year, driven by a 11% increase in wholesale business, while direct sales fell by 3% [23]. - In the EMEA region, revenue increased by 1%, with a notable performance in functional categories like running, which saw double-digit growth [23]. - The Greater China region faced challenges, with a 10% revenue decline, necessitating a focus on improving new product sales [23][24]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the sportswear sector, particularly for companies with strong operational fundamentals like Anta Sports, which is noted for its excellent group operation capabilities [3][27]. - The report also identifies opportunities in the textile manufacturing sector, particularly for companies like Shenzhou International, which has a low exposure to the U.S. market and a strong international supply chain [26][37]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong performance metrics, such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, while also highlighting the potential of Shenzhou International and Huali Group in the manufacturing space [11][27][37]. - It suggests that companies with robust product differentiation and brand strength, like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji, are likely to outperform in the jewelry sector [25].

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc supply pressure persists, and the inflection point of inventory reduction remains to be confirmed, with a neutral - weak strength analysis [2][5] - The Fed's interest - rate cut has been finalized, and the market focus has returned to fundamentals. The domestic supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious. There is a chance for the export window to open in the fourth quarter. During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be cautiously held [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.29%; the closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,886.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session was 21,705 yuan, with a decline of 1.25% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 126,716 lots, an increase of 49,318 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 126,086 lots, an increase of 64,242 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,163 lots, a decrease of 1,704 lots; the open interest was 219,399 lots, an increase of 2,338 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 5,042 tons to 57,573 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 1,229 tons to 100,544 tons; social inventory decreased by 8,100 tons to 150,400 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 42,775 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have risen to high levels, while zinc ingot visible inventories have declined [9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has declined, refined zinc operating rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates are generally at a low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot prices are continuously at a discount. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory reduction has occurred, but the inflection point remains to be confirmed, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a historical low in the same period. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level in the same period [38] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw - material inventory is abundant, at a historical high in the same period [41][42] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [49][51] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - No significant summary information provided 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period. The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61][63][75] 3.6 Overseas Factors - No significant summary information provided regarding the impact on the zinc market, only data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are presented [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to inventory depletion, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment. The Brent crude oil has strong support at the $65 level [1]. - The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound slightly following the oil price, but the upside space is limited due to increasing supply in the future [2]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of the demand peak season [2]. - The prices of polyester products such as TA and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors like increased maintenance in the fourth quarter, slow recovery of terminal demand, and pressure on long - term oil prices [4]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slow recovery of production, stable downstream tire demand, and weakening export support [6]. - The methanol price is expected to enter a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, but there are risks in short - term unilateral long positions [6]. - The polyolefin market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern with marginal improvement in demand and little change in supply [8]. - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high - level supply, slow recovery of domestic demand, and weakening exports [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The EIA reported a decline in US crude and refined product inventories last week. An agreement on resuming oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region was reached. The Brent crude has strong support at $65, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and changes in supply affected the market. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, but increasing supply will pressure the market in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the asphalt price rose. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate increased. The traditional consumption peak season has备货 demand, but high - level supply may limit price increases [2]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, the prices of TA, EG, and PX rose. Some devices were affected by typhoons and other factors. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the prices of various types of rubber rose. There were disturbances in production areas, and the supply and demand increased simultaneously. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a low level due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are given. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC market price was adjusted. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing but weak year - on - year. Supply is high, demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected by policies. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, etc. of various energy - chemical varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on September 24 and 23 [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA reported that US crude and refined product inventories decreased last week, and the net import volume of crude oil increased while the export volume decreased [12]. - Eight oil companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region reached a principle agreement on resuming oil exports, which will allow about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to be transported through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are provided [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. are presented [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are shown [59][61][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc. are provided [69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Futures prices of polyolefins opened higher, fluctuated, and rose slightly. Some traders tentatively raised their quotes, but spot prices showed mixed trends. Downstream buyers purchased raw materials based on orders, and the market's inventory digestion speed was average. Despite increased demand for packaging around the Double Festivals, market confidence was insufficient for large - scale restocking, resulting in limited demand - driven growth and a weak, low - level oscillating market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7142 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (0.48%), with a trading volume of 190,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 17,901 lots to 571,775 lots. - **PP Futures**: PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (0.39%), with a decrease in positions by 15,873 lots to 636,500 lots [3][4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons (5.97%) from the previous working day, compared to 735,000 tons in the same period last year. - **PE Market**: PE market prices showed mixed trends. In North China, LLDPE prices ranged from 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton; in East China, from 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton; and in South China, from 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Market supply was on the rise, producers were willing to offer discounts, and downstream factories purchased at lower prices, with better low - end transactions. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. Downstream factories had limited new orders, and their pre - holiday purchasing enthusiasm was low. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, and two - oil inventory and its year - on - year change, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][11][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, domestic supply - side disturbances have increased. With the maintenance of some refining and chemical plants in East and South China, production has decreased, and the import of Asian sources is restricted. Demand remains weak, and inventory in some areas has decreased. The cost has increased. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate strongly under the support of plant maintenance, but in the long - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression caused by OPEC+ production increase and less - than - expected demand recovery [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply has been continuously shrinking due to maintenance. Although production may increase this week, downstream device operation is differentiated, and inventory performance is also different. The cost of non - integrated enterprises has increased, and profit margins have been compressed. In September, the supply pressure is relatively alleviated. In the short - term, inventory is being reduced, but if demand does not improve significantly, the price increase space may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On September 22, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.92% at 6,928 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42 (+4 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.75% at 5,921 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On September 22, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,875 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization have decreased. The weekly output was 34.7 tons (-0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 73.4% (-1.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS was 61.7% (+0.7%), ABS was 69.8% (-0.2%), and PS was 61.2% (-0.7%) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustment. South Korea has cut ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories have closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared with the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South and Northeast China developing in coordination [8]. 3.3 Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Monitoring** - **Styrene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.92%, and the spot price decreased by 1.78%. The basis increased by 10.53% [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.75%, and prices in different regions had different degrees of decline [5]. - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.32%, and naphtha decreased by 1.14% [5]. - **Production and Inventory Monitoring** - **Production**: From September 5 to 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97%, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: From September 5 to 12, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, and pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% [6]. - **Capacity Utilization Monitoring** - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline changed to different degrees from September 5 to 12 [7]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also had different changes during the same period [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The current short - term supply - demand pattern of the lithium carbonate market is favorable, with inventory continuously decreasing and the futures market having certain support. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate. However, after the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 74,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 73,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.05% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 396,645 lots, and the open interest was 271,624 lots, a decrease of 9,640 lots from the previous trading day. The current basis was 430 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,909 lots, a decrease of 575 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,200 - 74,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton, also an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 833 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and seeing, with the overall market trading activity remaining stable. As it was the peak demand season, downstream material factories had certain inventory - building needs before the National Day and were more willing to purchase at relatively low prices [1]. - In August, China imported 22,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. Among them, 15,600 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 71% of the total imports, and 4,000 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 19%. From January to August, China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate were 153,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.5% [1]. - In August, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 619,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%, equivalent to 56,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). From Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe, the combined import volume accounted for 70.2%, with some showing significant decreases: Australia's imports were 212,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5%; Nigeria's imports were 105,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6%; Zimbabwe's imports were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84%. Imports from Mali and Brazil increased significantly, with 73,000 tons and 18,000 tons respectively, due to concentrated shipments [2]. Strategy - Futures market: It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate. After the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline. For unilateral trading, short - term range operations can be carried out, and selling hedging can be done at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures operations [3][4].

Group 1: Gold Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring - retracting - recovering" this week due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: This week, the gold futures price showed a "soaring - retracting - recovering" pattern due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. Next week, key factors include the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, inventory destocking rhythm, and global risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile and strong operation, with the lower support level at 795 - 814, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with the lower support level at 805 - 812 and the upper resistance level at 838 - 845. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][23][25] Group 2: Silver Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" last week, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, there is a risk of a pullback after "positive realization". In the long - term, attention should be paid to the resonance of industrial demand and financial attributes, and silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" in the fourth quarter if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled [33]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [33]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Last week, the silver futures price showed a "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" pattern, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, if the Fed is cautious about the 2026 interest rate cut expectation or the US economic data is unexpectedly strong, silver may test the 9800 yuan/ton support level again. In the long - term, if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled in the fourth quarter, silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" [33]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [37]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall egg supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low costs, and weak demand have pushed egg prices to their lowest levels in recent years. The recent rebound in egg prices is mainly due to pre - holiday stocking, but as the stocking ends, egg prices are starting to decline. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens decreased as egg prices rebounded [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3366, down 52 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3432, down 38; JD09 remained unchanged at 3193 [3]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 66, down 14; the 05 - 09 spread was 239, down 38; the 09 - 01 spread was - 173, up 52 [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.11, down 0.02. Other ratios also showed minor changes [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin; the average price in sales areas was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. Prices in most regions were stable, with some fluctuations in a few areas [3]. - **Culled Hen Prices**: The average price of culled hens was 4.55 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in most regions increased [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean粕 was 3012 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [3]. - **Profits**: The profit per laying hen was 30.93 yuan, down 1.04 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. It is estimated that the inventory from September to December 2025 will be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In August, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8% [7]. - **Culling Volume**: In the week of September 18, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. The average culling age was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7]. - **Sales Volume**: In the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8]. - **Profits**: As of September 18, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.3 yuan/jin; the expected profit per laying hen was 2.97 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/hen from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The current high supply, low demand, and low egg prices have led to an initial increase in culling enthusiasm. However, as egg prices rebounded, the culling willingness decreased. The recent slowdown in market sales is due to the end of pre - holiday stocking [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].