Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in May, the overall de - stocking of PX and PTA continues, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to weaken as polyester reduces its load. PTA processing fees have fully recovered, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding PXN at low prices and the opportunity of shrinking PTA processing fees at high prices in the long - term [2]. - For MEG, the marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited due to hidden inventories. The far - month supply - demand mainly focuses on the changes in imports and ethane - based production benefits under the influence of subsequent tariffs [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation in the future, but the futures processing fee is not high, and the price is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are the relatively low absolute level of national explicit inventory, the slight rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price, and the state of stockpiling. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.9, the price of PTA internal - market spot remained unchanged, the PTA processing difference decreased by 58, and the polyester gross profit increased by 73 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Taihua's 1.2 million - ton device was restarted [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: PX and PTA are expected to continue de - stocking in May, but the far - month supply - demand will weaken as polyester reduces its load [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 26, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 26 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton device was restarted, and Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited, and the far - month supply - demand depends on tariff - related factors [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: The daily change on May 6 showed that the short - fiber profit increased by 48, and the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15 [2]. - **Device Maintenance**: No device maintenance information was provided this week [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: There is still pressure for inventory accumulation, but the futures processing fee is not high, and it is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased by 30, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 240 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The main contradictions are the low explicit inventory, the rebound of cup - lump rubber price, and the stockpiling situation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by $56, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 265, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) decreased by 175 [6]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 79, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 55 [6].

节前一周现货铝价上涨。截至5月2日，LME3个月铝收盘价为2432美元/吨，较4月30日收盘 价上涨1.3%。供应方面：节前一周山东地区继续向云南地区转移电解铝产能，广西地区电 解铝企业继续复产，节前一周电解铝行业理论开工产能较上周相比继续小幅增加。需求方 面：节前一周铝棒行业产量减少，减量主要体现在甘肃、四川地区，铝板行业产量较上周持 平，节前一周电解铝理论需求有所减少。库存方面：节前一周LME铝库存较上周减少，目 前LME铝库41.96万吨，较上周42.56万吨减少0.6万吨。中国方面，节前一周铝锭社会库存持 续减少，目前库存67.4万吨，较上周68.89万吨减少1.49万吨。建议关注：中孚实业、神火股 份、云铝股份、中国宏桥、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、五矿资源。 天风证券近日发布金属与材料行业研究周报：4月30日：1）美国一季度GDP转向负增 长；2）美国3月通胀指标意外降温；3）紫金矿业拟分拆境外黄金资产赴港上市；4）美乌签 署矿产协议。5月1日：1）美国4月制造业PMI大幅萎缩；2）美国对加拿大和墨西哥制造的 汽车零部件豁免关税；3）日本央行维持利率不变。5月2日：美国4月非农就业超预期。 以下为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zhongju Gaoxin (600872.SH) [1][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.102 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, also down 24% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 38.73% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [2] - The company successfully reduced inventory levels, with revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil decreasing by 32%, 29%, and 50% respectively, due to adjustments in supply rhythm [3] - The company is expanding its restaurant product matrix and e-commerce channels, with direct sales channel revenue increasing by 33% year-on-year [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.17, 1.29, and 1.43 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 15, and 14 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.102 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, also down 24% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin increased to 38.73%, while net profit margin decreased to 16.46% [2] Inventory and Pricing - The company effectively managed inventory reduction, with significant revenue declines in key product lines due to strategic adjustments [3] - The pricing for main products is stabilizing as inventory levels return to healthy ranges [3] Channel Development - The company is enhancing its restaurant product offerings and expanding e-commerce channels, with notable growth in direct sales [4] - The focus on one-stop service is expected to improve brand penetration in key areas [4] Earnings Forecast - Adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.17, 1.29, and 1.43 yuan, reflecting ongoing operational improvements [5]

截至2025年4月30日当周，沪铜期货主力合约收于77220元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持2621 手。 上周（4月28日-4月30日）市场上看，沪铜期货周内开盘报77510元/吨，最高触及77990元/吨，最低下探 至77010元/吨，周度下跌0.28%。 节前，铜价一度表现坚挺，小幅上行，周三晚间国内休市，海外出现大跌，LME铜大跌3.4%，之后两 交易日，LME铜有所反弹，但未能完全收复周三跌幅，至收盘报于9356美元，周度基本持平，微跌 0.04%。交易建议：短期铜价虽大概率仍能维持坚挺，甚至小幅上行，但7.8万上方风险加大，不建议继 续大幅看多铜价交易，上方风险较高，可转为博弈利空对铜价的影响，可考虑适量买入看跌期权。 国信期货：沪铜预计震荡运行 宏观方面，据消息，美国世界大型企业研究会29日发布数据显示，受预期恶化影响，美国4月消费者信 心指数连续第五个月下降，跌至新冠疫情以来的最低水平，反映出对未来的普遍悲观看法。基本面仍对 铜价有支撑，国内铜库存持续去化，且持续低于去年同期水平。另一方面，市场也存有未来5月需求转 弱的担忧。整体而言，沪铜预计震荡，持续关注国内利好政策以及宏观情绪的变化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zhongju Gaoxin (600872.SH) [1][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.102 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, also down 24% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 38.73% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [2] - The company successfully reduced inventory levels, with revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil decreasing by 32%, 29%, and 50% respectively, due to adjustments in supply rhythm [3] - The company is expanding its product matrix in the catering category and has seen a 33% increase in direct sales channel revenue, indicating growth in e-commerce channels [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.102 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, also down 24% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin increased to 38.73%, while the net profit margin decreased to 16.46% [2] Inventory and Pricing - The company effectively managed inventory reduction, with significant revenue declines in key product lines due to strategic adjustments [3] - The pricing for main products is stabilizing as inventory levels return to a healthy state [3] Channel Development - Revenue from distribution channels decreased by 31% in Q1 2025, while direct sales channels grew by 33% [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its catering channel and expanding its e-commerce presence [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.17, 1.29, and 1.43 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 15, and 14 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory, and there are positive expectations for whisky recruitment [5][8] - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) division is expected to return to high-quality development, focusing on optimizing marketing expenses [7] - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 737 million yuan, a decrease of 8.11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 181 million yuan, an increase of 7.03% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [9] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 69.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable reduction in sales expenses [9] - The company expects revenue growth of 12.7%, 13.8%, and 15.3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 12.3%, 17.2%, and 17.9% for the same years [9][11] Product and Market Insights - The company is launching new whisky products, including "Bailide" blended whisky and the "Laizhou" single malt whisky series, with recruitment and distribution expected to catalyze growth in Q2 [8] - The revenue from the pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments showed a decline of 7.17% and an increase of 6.30% year-on-year, respectively, with pre-mixed drinks accounting for 87.8% of total revenue [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory, and there are positive expectations for whisky recruitment [5][8] - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) division is expected to return to high-quality development, focusing on optimizing marketing expenses [7] - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 737 million yuan, a decrease of 8.11% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, an increase of 7.03% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a decline of 6.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [9] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 69.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable reduction in sales expenses [9] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 3.434 billion yuan, 3.907 billion yuan, and 4.504 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 13.8%, and 15.3% [9][11] Product and Market Insights - The company is launching new whisky products, including "Bailide" blended whisky and the "Laizhou" single malt whisky series, with recruitment and distribution expected to catalyze growth in Q2 [8] - The revenue from pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments showed a decline of 7.17% and an increase of 6.30% respectively in 2024 [9] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 34, 29, and 25 times respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/30 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/29 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.0 | 483.6 | -14. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情小跌,原油下跌,利空PTA行情,但去库 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 861.0 | 925.6 | 64. 65 | 存预期之下PTA主力供应商报盘基差较强,支撑PTA现 货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2379 | 1. 2634 | 0. 0255 | | | | CFR中国PX | 758 | 756 | -2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 176 | 178 | 2 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4480 | 4440 | ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/04/30 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/04/2 3 | 801 | 2438 | 2468 | 2745 | 2610 | 2720 | 2855 | 261 | 340 | 184 | 40 | -863 | | 2025/04/2 4 | 801 | 2437 | 2455 | 2740 | 2610 | 2720 | 2840 | 261 | 340 | 164 | 35 | -875 | | 2025/04/2 5 | 801 | 2440 | 2458 | 2740 | 2610 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 45.58 [7][8] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at RMB 14.2 million (down 49.7% YoY) and net profit at RMB 0.1 million (down 97.7% YoY) [1] - The company is currently focused on inventory destocking, and it is anticipated that external demand recovery will take time to reflect in performance [4] - The company is deepening its market presence in the province and building model markets outside the province, while optimizing consumer activities [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.3 million (down 66.2% YoY) and a net profit of -RMB 0.4 million [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was RMB 3.4 million (down 30.3% YoY) and net profit was RMB 0.3 million (down 56.8% YoY) [1] - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 7.0 percentage points to 71.4%, attributed to a decline in product structure [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company’s product lines, including the "Neican" and "Jiugui" series, have seen significant revenue declines, while the "Xiangquan" series showed a modest increase of 7.6% [2] - The company is focusing on maintaining brand value and controlling inventory to stabilize prices, with a strategic emphasis on core products [2] Future Outlook - The report projects a continued focus on inventory destocking and expects external demand recovery to drive performance improvements in the future [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 10% and 18%, respectively, due to anticipated market conditions [4][13]