Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart its interest rate cut cycle, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, as market anticipations suggest a total of 75 basis points of cuts by the end of the year [3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve has been slow to react, and the market has already priced in a 25 basis point cut [3]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17-18 is likely to confirm the start of a rate cut cycle, with 95% of market participants expecting a 25 basis point "preventive cut" [3][5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, with probabilities for future meetings showing a gradual expectation of further cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve's actions will differ based on the nature of the cuts; a 25 basis point cut is seen as preventive, while a 50 basis point cut would indicate a recessionary response [6][7]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous rate cut cycles, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reacted differently based on whether the cuts were preventive or recessionary [7]. Group 3: Impact on Gold Prices - Regardless of the type of rate cut, both preventive and recessionary cuts are favorable for gold, with the price of gold approaching $3,700 per ounce as the dollar index falls below 97 [9]. - The current trends indicate a continuation of rising gold prices and falling dollar values, reflecting market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [9].

北京时间9月18日凌晨，全球金融市场将迎来本月重磅事件——美联储议息会议决议公布。在近期美国 就业数据疲软、通胀压力缓和的背景下，市场普遍预期美联储此次会议将开启新一轮降息周期，但就降 息幅度仍存意见分歧。 据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）"美联储观察"，美联储本次会议降息25个基点的概率高达95.9%，而降息 50个基点的概率仅为4.1%。市场同时预期，到10月份累计降息50个基点的概率达到73.8%，显示出市场 对持续宽松的强烈预期。 但值得注意的是，美国总统特朗普近日连续在社交平台发声，施压美联储应"大幅快速降息"，甚至明确 要求幅度应"超出预期"，这些言论为该次会议增添了更多政治不确定性。 同时，英国央行、日本央行和加拿大央行等全球主要央行也将在本周陆续公布利率决议，"超级央行 周"的整体决策将共同塑造未来数月全球金融市场的走向。 放眼未来，美联储的决策将对全球金融市场产生怎样的连锁反应？国内股、债、汇等资产价格将如何变 动？全球资产配置格局会否发生重大调整？ 25基点还是50基点 在维持关键利率稳定9个月后，市场观点普遍认为，9月美联储降息"板上钉钉"。但围绕降息幅度的争论 却始终激烈：是谨慎的25个基 ...

这不仅是2008年金融危机后力度最大的一次宽松周期，更因两大特殊背景引发全球瞩目—— 经济数据"软着陆"信号 美国8月失业率升至4.3%，非农新增就业仅2.2万人，远低于预期。与此同时，通胀数据保持温和（CPI同比2.9%），为降息提供了空间。 这种"就业降温+通胀可控"的组合，让美联储得以在避免经济衰退的前提下调整政策。 北京时间9月19日凌晨，美联储将公布最新利率决议，市场普遍预期大幅降息。普通人如何抓住这波全球资产配置的机会？ 北京时间9月19日凌晨，美联储将公布最新利率决议。目前市场对"降息25个基点"的预期概率已超90%，且年内可能累计降息3次。 政治与市场的双重压力 特朗普多次公开呼吁"立即大幅降息"，叠加美股估值处于历史高位，市场对政策转向的期待愈发强烈。 与2008年应对危机的"衰退式降息"不同，本次更偏向"预防式降息"——通过提前释放流动性，为潜在的经济放缓筑坝。历史数据显示，预防式降息后，全球 风险资产往往表现更优。 美联储降息的本质是向市场注入流动性，但资金流向往往遵循"寻找价值洼地"的规律。结合当前市场环境，三大趋势值得关注—— 新兴市场或成"新宠" A股和港股当前估值仅为美股估值的1 ...

连平、刘涛（连平系广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长） 当前，市场对于9月美联储降息预期强烈。CME"美联储观察"最新预测数据显示，美联储9月降息25个 基点的概率为92%，降息50个基点的概率为8%。9月16-17日，美联储议息会议召开在即，一旦宣布重启 降息，对美国股市将是利是弊？美股会迎来大幅提振吗？还是会加快推动资金流向中国、欧洲等全球其 他股市？这些问题引起了市场的广泛关注。 不同类型的降息对美股影响各不相同 首先需要讨论和厘清的是，美联储即将启动的降息属何种性质。一般来说，美联储降息可分为预防式降 息和纾困式降息两类。预防式降息是指在经济出现局部放缓迹象时，央行为预防潜在的经济金融风险爆 发而前瞻实施的相对温和的降息举措，在一定程度上起到未雨绸缪的作用。纾困式降息则是指在经济已 处于严重的衰退状态，或遭遇到突如其来的重大冲击时，央行采取连续、大幅的降息动作，以缓解经济 困境。如2020年为应对疫情采取的大幅降息的"量化宽松"政策。上世纪90年代以来，美联储经历了6轮 比较明显的降息周期，包括2轮预防式降息和3轮纾困式降息，以及1轮由预防式降息和纾困式降息叠加 的混合式 ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overall, influenced by factors such as the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the weakening dollar index, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the seasonal characteristics of the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a short - term strong or oscillating upward trend, but each metal has its own influencing factors and characteristics [2][4][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated upward, with LME copper rising 1.24% to $10189/ton and SHFE copper settling at 81380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [2]. - Supply: Overseas copper mines face certain disruptions, and domestic supply surplus pressure is not significant [2]. - Demand: Downstream procurement sentiment weakened, and the traditional peak season is ongoing [2]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 10050 - 10300 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with LME aluminum rising 0.13% to $2704/ton and SHFE aluminum settling at 21060 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased [4]. - Supply: Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Demand: Downstream is in the traditional peak season, and aluminum exports are resilient [4]. - Price Outlook: Expected to continue to strengthen, with the SHFE aluminum main contract running in the range of 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2660 - 2730 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices broke through the oscillation range and trended upward. SHFE lead index rose 0.76% to 17173 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2014/ton [6]. - Supply: Lead concentrate inventory accumulates slowly, and the supply of raw materials remains tight [6]. - Demand: Downstream battery inventory decreased, and the operating rate improved marginally [6]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index fell slightly by 0.01% to 22316 yuan/ton, while LME zinc 3S rose to $2960/ton. Domestic social inventory increased [7][8]. - Supply: Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the processing fee showed differentiation [8]. - Demand: The industry data is strengthening marginally [9]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [9]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly, and demand improved marginally [10]. - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the output of domestic refined tin is expected to decline by 29.89% in September [10]. - Demand: New energy and AI sectors are booming, and traditional consumption is gradually improving [10]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated, and the spot market transaction was not significantly improved [11]. - Supply: The supply of nickel iron increased limitedly, and the cost of refined nickel was under pressure [11]. - Demand: The demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills is expected to increase [11]. - Price Outlook: In the short term, the price may decline further, but in the long term, it is supported by policies and has limited downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The demand expectation is optimistic, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - The alumina index rose 0.69% to 2935 yuan/ton. The supply is in an over - capacity pattern, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 running in the range of 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.93% to 13070 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased. The raw material price increased, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [17][18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell 0.48% to 20545 yuan/ton, and inventory increased slightly. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to remain high, with the AD2511 contract running in the range of 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20].

Group 1: U.S. Rate Cut Cycles - The report reviews the impact of the last four U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut cycles on the Chinese economy and A-share indices since 2005[1] - The 2007-2008 cycle saw a total cut of 500 basis points (bps), with the Fed rate dropping from 5.25% to 0.25%[8] - In the 2019 cycle, the Fed cut rates by 75 bps from 2.50% to 1.75% amid trade tensions and economic slowdown[8] - The 2020 cycle involved a total cut of 150 bps, bringing rates down to 0%-0.25% due to the COVID-19 pandemic[8] - The upcoming 2024 cycle is projected to involve a 100 bps cut, starting from a range of 5.25%-5.50%[8] Group 2: Market Performance During Rate Cuts - During the 2007-2009 cycle, major A-share indices experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by approximately 40%[24] - In contrast, during the 2019 rate cut, the ChiNext Index rose by 11.30%, indicating a recovery in market sentiment[30] - The 2020 cycle saw the ChiNext Index increase by 27.24%, outperforming other indices due to strong growth in high-demand sectors[36] - The 2024 cycle is expected to provide liquidity support, with the ChiNext Index projected to rise by 20.84% during the cut period[42] Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Responses - Rate cuts are typically initiated in response to economic slowdowns or recession signals, with the severity of the recession influencing market reactions[3] - The Chinese government responded to the 2008 financial crisis with a 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan, which included significant infrastructure investments[21] - In 2019, the People's Bank of China implemented a series of targeted monetary policy adjustments, including lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to support economic stability[27] - The 2024 rate cut is expected to be accompanied by domestic policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth and supporting the stock market[42]

9月15日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，沪铅期货主力合约报收于17160.00元/吨，涨幅 1.15%。 展望后市，五矿期货表示，9月初美国劳动力市场数据明显走弱，市场提出衰退式降息风险，上周CPI 数据公布后小幅超预期，市场预期美联储在本年度剩余议息会议中将存在三次降息操作，市场再度交易 预防式降息，贵金属及有色金属均有走强。边际转强的产业数据配合较强的市场氛围，铅价向上突破震 荡区间，预计短期偏强运行。 宏观层面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，美国劳工部最新数据显示8月非农新增就业仅2.2万人，远低于 市场预期的7.5万人，失业率升至4.3%（近四年新高），薪资增长放缓。数据公布后，市场对美联储9月 降息的预期急剧升温，市场流动性宽松预期增强。 基本面，南华期货（603093）指出，受原生铅副产品收益稳定，开工意愿强烈影响，铅精矿加工费再度 下调，同时铅精矿供给维持偏紧。再生铅方面，大部分再生铅企业仍处于亏损状态，且原料紧缺，开工 率维持低位。 需求方面，新湖期货分析称，上周铅蓄电池开工率较上周基本持平，开学季订单表现平平；出口方面， 中东关税制裁生效，铅蓄电池出口订单下滑。 ...

有色金属日报 2025-9-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铜 有色金属小组 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价走强，伦铜周涨 2.02%至 10064 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 80810 元/吨。产业层面，上周 三大交易所库存环比增加 1.2 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 1.2 至 9.4 万吨，LME 库存减少 0.4 至 15.4 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.5 至 28.2 万吨。上海保税区库存减少 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but rebounded, with active performance in sectors such as electrical equipment, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) showed a strong increase of 0.83%, with a premium/discount rate of 0.23%, and active trading volume [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 130 million yuan over the last five trading days, totaling over 540 million yuan in net inflows over the past ten trading days [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities believe that the upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will benefit Hong Kong assets, particularly in the context of the A/H market rotation and easing internet competition [2] - Huatai Securities noted that despite the Hang Seng Index rising 30% this year, Hong Kong stocks still offer value for overseas investors, benefiting from global liquidity and foreign capital inflows [2] - The anticipated global financial conditions remain loose, driven by the Fed's potential rate cut and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies worldwide, which could enhance the performance of Hong Kong stocks as offshore RMB assets [2]

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年09月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：需求有待验证，钢价低位震荡 ◼ 逻辑：需求有待验证，钢价低位震荡； | 2025/9/12 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | 需求 | | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 10-01 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 240 6 ...