财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 Z0017173 期货方面：本周螺纹 01 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下维持小幅反弹。截止周 五，螺纹 01 合约收于 3110 元/吨，环比上周上涨 53 元，周涨 幅 1.73%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： F3073406 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格继续小幅上调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 23 元至 3291 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3250 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格上调 40 元至 3290 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格维持不变 3220 元/吨；天 津地区螺纹价格维持不变 3210 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格上调 90 元至 3490 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.09%，环比减少 1.10%， 同比减少 0.53%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 87.98%，环比减少 0.60%， 同比增加 0.18%；全国 90 家电炉钢厂平均开工率 69.13%，与上 周持平，同比上升 0.79%；电炉平均产能利用率 52.73% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][4][7][10][12][15][16][17][19] 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks. Monitor macro changes and supply - side recovery [1] Nickel Industry - Macro sentiment has slightly improved. Short - term upstream production cuts and valuation provide some support, but the upward drive is limited. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price will decline next month, and fundamental pressure restricts the upside space of prices. Expect the market to trade in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3] Stainless Steel Industry - Policy - driven changes are difficult to have a direct impact in the short term. Fundamentals show limited improvement, cost support is weakening, demand is sluggish, and inventory reduction is difficult. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700. Follow the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate futures market is in a wide - range shock, and market divergence is increasing. The main contract is expected to remain in a wide - range shock in the short term, with larger intraday fluctuations. Pay attention to the sustainability of demand improvement during the year - end off - season [7] Zinc Industry - As the TC declines and the export space opens up, the supply pressure eases. The downside space of short - term prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to trade in a range. Monitor the TC inflection point, refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [10] Copper Industry - In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract support at 86,000 - 87,000 [12] Aluminum Industry - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with the main contract reference range of 2,650 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract reference range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton. Monitor the latest trends in the Fed's monetary policy and the sustainability of domestic inventory reduction [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by costs and demand. Short - term prices remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon price is expected to remain in a low - range shock, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the downstream start - up changes and the impact of the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts into the spot market [17] Polysilicon Industry - In December, the polysilicon market is expected to have oversupply and inventory accumulation. Futures trading should be on hold, and put options can be bought when volatility is low [19] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 300,000 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 2.50%. The import loss improved slightly [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2603 - 2604 decreased, while those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603 increased [1] - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average smelting start - up rate increased, while refined tin imports and exports decreased [1] - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories all increased [1] Nickel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.42%, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.15% [3] - **Electrowinning Nickel Costs**: The costs of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods decreased, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [3] - **New Energy Material Prices**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 0.32%, and battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.95% [3] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2603 - 2604 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [3] - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased slightly, imports decreased significantly, and SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded - area inventories decreased [3] Stainless Steel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable or slightly decreased, and the spot - futures spread increased by 9.78% [4] - **Raw Material Prices**: Most raw material prices were stable, and the 8 - 12% high - grade nickel - iron price decreased slightly [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603 decreased, and those of 2603 - 2604 increased [4] - **Fundamentals**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, imports increased, exports decreased, and social inventories increased [4] Lithium Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.48%, and lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 2.13% [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603 increased [7] - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased, and in October, demand, imports, and exports increased [7] - **Inventory**: In October, total and downstream lithium carbonate inventories decreased, and smelter inventories decreased slightly [7] Zinc Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.36%, and the import loss improved [10] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [10] - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, in October, imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. The start - up rates of primary processing industries were basically stable [10] - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [10] Copper Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.36%, and the refined - scrap copper spread increased by 13.03% [12] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [12] - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production and imports decreased. The start - up rates of copper rod production decreased [12] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased, and LME and COMEX inventories increased [12] Aluminum Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased slightly, and the import loss improved [15] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [15] - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and in October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased slightly and exports decreased [15] - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased, and LME inventory decreased slightly [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices were stable, and most refined - scrap spreads decreased [16] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 decreased, and that of 2602 - 2603 increased [16] - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy production decreased, and primary aluminum alloy production increased. The start - up rates of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased, and that of primary aluminum alloy increased [16] - **Inventory**: Regenerated aluminum alloy social and daily inventories decreased [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most industrial silicon spot prices were stable, and the basis of some varieties decreased [17] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 increased, and those of 2603 - 2604, 2604 - 2605 changed significantly [17] - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased, especially in Yunnan and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC production increased, and polysilicon production decreased [17] - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [17] Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, and the N - type material basis decreased [19] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main futures contract price increased by 2.15%, and the spreads of different contracts changed [19] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased slightly, and exports decreased. Silicon wafer production and demand decreased [19] - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased significantly [19]

LPG：短期坚挺，趋势承压 丙烯：格局维持宽松 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 1 日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2512 | 4,504 | 3.23% | 4,495 | -0.20% | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,412 | 3.59% | 4,393 | -0.43% | | | PL2601 | 5,997 | 2.15% | 6,013 | 0.27% | | | PL2602 | 5,923 | 1.61% | 5,958 | 0.59% | | | PL2603 | 5,940 | 2.45% | 5,976 | 0.61% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2512 | 3,355 | 773 | 476 | -2266 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2601 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are all "shock - strong", with the core logic being that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - strong", and the overall view reference is "shock - strong". The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock. The calculation of price increase and decrease amplitude is based on specific rules [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures prices have strengthened, driving the spot price of steel to rise over the weekend, but the trading volume is average. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed much. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and supply has shrunk again, but the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand is weakly stable. Weekly apparent demand has decreased slightly, and high - frequency daily trading volume has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and subsequent demand will seasonally decline, dragging down steel prices. Although market sentiment has warmed up due to the approaching major meeting, driving steel prices to rebound from lows, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, the upward driving force is questionable, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [3]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 矿山库存大增 双焦偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，煤焦需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产加快，日均焦炭产量小幅增加，库存增加，可 用天数增加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业盈利情况继续好转，主因焦煤价格走弱， 生产加速，焦炭产量明显增加，但出货困难，库存增加。 全国平均吨焦盈利46（环比+27）元/吨。 ⚫ 上游：矿山生产平稳，供应压力增大，焦煤库存大幅增 加。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为86%，环比 -0.9%。原煤日均产量191.3万吨，环比-2.1万吨，原煤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a rebound, but the upside space is narrowing. In the short term, due to factors such as Iranian plant maintenance and low port unloading leading to significant destocking, there was a concentrated exit of short - positions, driving a co - rising of futures and spot prices. In the medium term, the high domestic supply pressure of the 01 contract remains the main contradiction, and high daily production and high import volumes may limit the upside price space in December. In 2026, the overall fundamental situation of methanol may improve in the first quarter [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Base, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents historical data on the base of methanol on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE), 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: It shows the historical market low - end prices of methanol in Inner Mongolia, Henan, the southern region of Shandong, and the import market price in Taicang from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17]. - **International Spot Prices**: Historical data on the CFR prices of methanol in China and Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Rotterdam from 2020 - 2025 are provided [18][19][20]. - **Port - Inland Price Spreads**: The price spreads between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and the southern region of Shandong from 2020 - 2025 are presented [21][22][23][24]. 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity Summary**: From 2024 - 2025, China added significant methanol production capacity, with 400 million tons in 2024 and 830 million tons in 2025. Internationally, there was also capacity expansion, with 355 million tons in 2024 and 165 million tons in 2025 [26]. - **Maintenance Summary**: Multiple methanol enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025. The report details the annual production capacity, shutdown and startup dates, actual daily losses, and other information of each enterprise [29]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In the week of 20251121 - 1127, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 91.27% [5]. - **Production by Process**: Historical production data of methanol produced by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 - 2025 are shown [32][33][34]. - **Capacity Utilization by Region**: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [36][37]. - **Import - Related**: It includes historical data on China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [40][41][42][43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Historical data on the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45][46][47][50][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [55][56][57][58]. - **Downstream Profits**: The historical profit data of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are shown [62][63][66][67][68]. - **Purchasing Volume by Region**: It shows the historical purchasing volumes of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [70][71][72][73][75][76][77][78]. - **Raw Material Inventory by Region**: The historical raw material inventory data of methanol downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [80][81][82][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Historical data on the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China, East China, and Northwest China from 2018 - 2025 are provided [85][86][87]. - **Port Inventory**: Historical data on the weekly port inventory of methanol in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 - 2025 are presented [91][92][93].

Report Date - The report is dated November 30, 2025 [1][4][29][55][81][95][110][135][160][179][192] Investment Ratings - The document does not mention any specific investment ratings for the industries. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range due to fundamental constraints on the upside, with refined nickel inventory issues and low - cost supply expectations. Stainless steel may show a weak fundamental situation with limited downside due to cost support and concerns about Indonesian policies [4][5] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's supply - demand is weakening, with inventory accumulation. Polysilicon's price fluctuations are increasing, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration [30][34][35] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices face upward pressure due to seasonal weakening of demand and the resumption of production in large factories [55][58] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is experiencing a short - term technical rebound and waiting for confirmation of the production inflection point. Soybean oil is range - bound with limited drivers from US soybeans [82][83][85] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to trade in a volatile manner. For soybean meal, focus on China's purchases of US soybeans; for soybean No.1, focus on Sino - US trade sentiment [95][99] Corn - Corn is expected to trade in a high - range with a combination of factors such as CBOT price movements, wheat price trends, and starch inventory changes [110][112][113][115] Sugar - Internationally, sugar is in a low - range consolidation. Domestically, it is in a narrow - range adjustment, with supply and demand and policy factors influencing the market [135][137][158] Cotton - Cotton is expected to oscillate upward in the short - term, but the upside space is limited due to new cotton listings and potential hedging by ginning factories [160][177] Live Hogs - Live hog spot prices are expected to be weak, while the futures market shows a divergence between futures and spot prices, with the industrial logic expected to return [180][181][182] Peanuts - Peanuts' spot prices show regional differentiation. The futures market is expected to strengthen with a narrowing basis and intensified capital games [192][193][194] Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel has inventory and supply expectations issues, while stainless steel has high inventory and weak supply - demand [4][5] - **Inventory**: Refined nickel, new energy, and nickel - stainless steel inventories have different trends [6][8] - **Market News**: There are events in Indonesia's nickel mining industry and changes in subsidy policies [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price rises while the spot price falls; polysilicon's futures price rises and the spot price is stable [30] - **Supply - Demand**: Both industries have inventory accumulation, with changes in production and demand on both the supply and demand sides [31][32] - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's price fluctuations are large, with specific price ranges predicted [34][35] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures price has high volatility and an upward trend, while the spot price also rises [55] - **Supply - Demand**: There are policy, raw material, production, and demand factors affecting the market, and inventory reduction is less than expected [56][57] - **Outlook**: The price faces upward pressure due to seasonal demand and production resumption [58] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: Palm oil and soybean oil had different price trends last week [82] - **Current Situation**: Palm oil's production and inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia are key factors, and soybean oil is affected by US soybean data and South American weather [83][84][85] - **Data**: There are detailed price, volume, and inventory data for both oils [88][90][92] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Previous Week's Market**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and soybean No.1 had different price trends last week, with corresponding fundamental factors [95] - **Domestic Spot**: There are changes in domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1's trading volume, delivery volume, basis, inventory, and price [96][97][98] - **Outlook**: Both are expected to trade in a volatile manner, with specific factors to focus on [99] Corn - **Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn rose last week, with changes in related indicators such as basis and starch inventory [110][111][115] - **Market Outlook**: Factors such as CBOT price, wheat price, and starch inventory will affect the corn market [112][113][115] Sugar - **Market Review**: Internationally, there are changes in the dollar index, oil price, and sugar price; domestically, there are changes in spot and futures prices and supply - demand expectations [135][136] - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, it is in a low - range consolidation; domestically, it is in a narrow - range adjustment, with factors such as supply - demand and policy to focus on [137][158] Cotton - **Market Review**: ICE cotton rebounds, and domestic cotton futures rise, with different fundamental factors at home and abroad [160][163] - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to oscillate upward in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [177] Live Hogs - **Market Review**: Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are strong, with changes in supply - demand and basis [180] - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to be weak, and the futures market shows a divergence between futures and spot prices [181][182] Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices are weak, and futures prices rise, with different trends in different regions [192] - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices show regional differentiation, and the futures market is expected to strengthen with a narrowing basis and intensified capital games [193][194]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral neutral, pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between MA2605 and MA2609 when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main drivers. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [1][8] - The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but the current high inventory is a major issue [7][21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Overseas supply: In 2026, the nominal new foreign production capacity is 1.65 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.62 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of about 0.8%. The total import increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.37 million tons, with an import growth rate of about 9.6% [5] - Domestic non - integrated production: In 2026, the nominal new non - integrated production capacity is 1.2 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.98 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 1.1% [5] - Demand increment: The new external - purchase methanol MTO devices will increase the methanol demand by 2.2 million tons/year after weighted by commissioning time, with a demand growth rate of 13.8%. In 2026, the new production capacity of traditional downstream industries will increase the nominal methanol demand by 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual demand increment is 2.5 million tons/year, driving the methanol demand growth by 7.9% [6] 3.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main factors. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [8] 3.3 Methanol Annual Balance Sheet Estimation - 2026 MTO and traditional downstream commissioning boost demand, and the high - level inventory is expected to be cleared. The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate [15][21] 3.4 Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis - New external devices: In 2026, the pressure of new overseas methanol production capacity is not significant. The nominal new production capacity is 1.65 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate weighted by commissioning time is about 0.8% [22][23] - Overseas existing devices: In 2025, the Iranian methanol supply showed a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The winter maintenance at the end of 2025 was late, and the actual maintenance duration needs attention. Non - Iranian supply also had different performance in different regions [25][26][31] - Internal - external price ratio: In the context of high port inventory, the import was in an inverted state, and the overseas premium performance was average [43] - Port inventory: In 2025, the port inventory reached a historical high. The winter maintenance of Iran was later than expected, and the inventory pressure in December 2025 continued. The inventory in different regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China all reached historical highs [49] - MTO new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning plan of external - purchase MTO is the highest since 2020, mainly including Shandong Lianhong Phase II and Guangxi Huayi. The integrated MTO mainly focuses on the commissioning plan of CCM Yulin Phase II in Q3 of 2026 [64] - MTO existing devices: In 2025, the operation of external - purchase MTO was acceptable. The maintenance was not concentrated, and the loss gradually recovered after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [70][72] - Regional price difference: Pay attention to the sustainability of the window for port methanol to flow back to the inland [79] 3.5 Inland Supply - Demand Analysis - Inland methanol new situation: In 2026, the domestic commissioning pressure is not significant. The planned commissioning is 5.13 million tons/year, but non - integrated methanol devices are only 1.1 million tons/year [83] - Inland existing device load: Coal - based maintenance is mainly seasonal, and the winter maintenance of gas - based devices is still slow [90] - Non - integrated coal - based: The profit of coal - based methanol was good in the first three quarters of 2025, and the operation was acceptable [91] - Natural gas - based: The winter maintenance of southwest gas - based devices was late in 2025 [97] - Coke oven gas - based: Pay attention to the maintenance of coking enterprises. The operation of coke oven gas - based methanol has a certain long - term correlation with the coking operation rate [99][103] - Inland inventory: In 2025, the inventory of northwest enterprises decreased compared to 2024, and the inventory of east - China enterprises increased after October [105] - Traditional downstream performance: In 2025, acetic acid entered a loss and production - reduction stage after concentrated commissioning, while MTBE performed well driven by exports [109] - Traditional downstream new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning scale of traditional downstream industries is still considerable. The nominal new methanol demand is 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual new demand is 2.5 million tons/year [122][125]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral market and suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ for spreads [1]. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production of pure benzene will exceed the incremental demand from downstream production, leading to a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene may maintain a weak and low - volatility oscillation. For styrene, the new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. But the current port inventory of styrene is still high. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [1][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - In 2026, the nominal new production plan of pure benzene is 2.81 million tons/year, with the actual capacity growth weighted by production time at 1.37 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate at 4.8%. The nominal growth in pure benzene demand due to new downstream capacity in China in 2026 is only 2.59 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is only 0.64 million tons/year, with a demand growth rate of only 2.2%, significantly slower than in 2025. The annual balance sheet of pure benzene is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [7]. - In 2026, the nominal capacity growth of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth weighted by production time is 0.013 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 0.5%, significantly slower than in 2025. The nominal growth in styrene demand due to the production of three major hard plastics in China in 2026 is 1.88 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is 0.87 million tons/year, driving a 5.3% demand growth rate. In 2026, styrene may shift from a stockpiling to a destocking cycle, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the downstream inventory operation is lower than expected [8]. Market Analysis - The new production of pure benzene in 2026 exceeds the incremental demand from downstream production, and it is expected to enter a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and will oscillate at a low level. Styrene's new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [9]. Strategy - On an annual basis, the unilateral price will oscillate in a range. In the first half of the year, the production pressure of pure benzene still exists, and the price will oscillate weakly. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to whether the summer gasoline blending and crude oil prices can support the unilateral price. For spreads, pay attention to widening the EB - BZ spread at low levels, especially in the first half of the year. In terms of inter - period trading, BZ still favors reverse arbitrage, while EB should track the annual inventory reduction rhythm for positive arbitrage opportunities [10]. Annual Balance Sheet Estimation Pure Benzene & EB - **Pure Benzene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the pressure on pure benzene still exists, but the downstream production is limited. The total supply of pure benzene in China will increase by 2.7%, and the total demand will increase by 1.5%. The inventory change will be a 280,000 - ton increase, with an inventory change rate of 0.9% [17]. - **Styrene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the new production of styrene will slow down, and it is waiting for further inventory digestion. The total supply of styrene in China will decrease by 0.6%, and the total demand will increase by 2.1%. The inventory change will be a 130,000 - ton decrease [21]. 2026 China Pure Benzene & Styrene Production Situation - The nominal capacity growth rate of pure benzene in China in 2026 is 9.8% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 4.8%), and the nominal capacity growth rate of styrene is 3.9% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 0.5%), significantly slower than in 2025 [26]. - The main large - scale pure benzene production in 2026 will be Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei in the third quarter, with greater production pressure in Q1 and Q4. The production of styrene will slow down significantly in 2026, mainly focusing on Huajin Aramco in the fourth quarter. Before the start of the peak summer gasoline - blending season, the EB - BZ spread is expected to widen in the first half of the year [28][29]. Styrene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, styrene had a profit recovery and inventory reduction in the first half of the year and then entered a loss - making and production - reduction pattern in the second half. The main maintenance periods were in April - May and October - November, especially for non - integrated plants using purchased pure benzene in October - November [31]. - In 2025, the overseas styrene maintenance increased, but the export did not increase further. The overseas demand for styrene was weak, resulting in the situation where increased overseas maintenance did not significantly support China's styrene export [45]. - In 2025, the styrene port inventory accumulated to a historical high and is waiting for digestion. The main reasons for the inventory increase were the weakening of downstream demand and the impact of new production [67]. EB Downstream Situation - In the second half of 2025, the production schedule growth rate of white goods significantly declined. The export of white goods decreased due to the tariff war, and the domestic sales also decreased due to the exhaustion of government subsidies [70]. - In 2026, the planned production of EPS is 0.82 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.1%; the planned production of PS is 0.87 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 10.1%; the planned production of ABS is 0.4 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.3%. The production growth rate of ABS will slow down in 2026 [91]. Pure Benzene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the pure benzene port inventory had great pressure. The processing fee of pure benzene decreased throughout the year, and the port inventory reached a relatively high historical level in July, mainly due to weak overseas demand and poor performance of domestic downstream industries [102]. - In 2025, the summer gasoline blending in the US was weak, and more pure benzene from South Korea was diverted to China, resulting in a significant increase in China's pure benzene imports. The gasoline demand in the US in 2025 was weak, especially in the peak season from June to August, which affected the Asian aromatic hydrocarbon market [107]. Pure Benzene Downstream Situation - In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was weak. The downstream operation of pure benzene was significantly differentiated, with the demand for pure benzene mainly supported by the high operation of styrene. The non - styrene downstream industries of pure benzene had little demand growth or even negative growth [121]. - In 2026, the planned production of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.9%; the planned production of phenol is 1.08 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.1%; the planned production of aniline is 0.3 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.2%; the planned production of adipic acid is 0.6 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.5%. In the first half of 2026, the new demand for pure benzene from downstream production will be less than the new pure benzene production capacity, and the pure benzene processing fee is expected to be weak. In the third and fourth quarters, the downstream production of pure benzene will gradually exceed its own production [128][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral on a single - side basis [2][12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the growth rate of polyolefin capacity expansion will slow down, especially in the first half of the year when there will be a new - production vacuum period. The first half of the year will focus on digesting the existing high inventory of polyolefins. However, the demand support before the Spring Festival is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread strategy for the 01 - 05 month inter - period spread. In March, as the "Golden March" peak season, polyolefin demand may seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to start the destocking process. The annual strategy recommends the positive spread strategy for L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 inter - period spreads. In 2026, the new PE production will mainly be non - standard HDPE, and the proportion of standard linear production is relatively low. It is recommended to short non - standard products and long standard linear products to narrow the non - standard price spread [2][12] Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - **New production**: In 2026, the total new PE capacity will be 4.74 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%, which is slower than in 2025. Most of the new production will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and only BASF's 500,000 - ton FDPE device will be put into production in the first half. For PP, the new capacity in 2026 will be 4.4 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 8.8%, significantly slower than in 2025, and the new production will mainly be concentrated in Q3 - Q4 [7] - **Inventory**: After the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the polyolefin inventory has not been effectively destocked and remains at a high level. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the existing high inventory. But before the Spring Festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain high until March [7] Market Analysis - **Production in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the total domestic polyethylene production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11%, with the cumulative year - on - year increase in drawn wire production being 8% [8] - **Demand in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 0.5%, with the main growth coming from industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 1.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of primary - shaped plastic import volume was - 7.6%. The downstream demand for PE and PP is generally weak [9] Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - **PE market**: The plastic main contract shows the trend of the main contract, basis, and inter - period spread from 2023 to 2025 [19] - **PP market**: The domestic polypropylene market in 2025 showed a trend of continuous decline followed by low - level oscillation. It can be divided into three stages: the decline stage from January to May, the short - term support stage from June to August, and the low - level oscillation stage from September to the end of the year [22][23] Polyolefin Capacity Expansion - **2026 China's polyolefin production rhythm**: The production rhythm of polyolefins in China will slow down in 2026, especially in the first half of the year. The new PE capacity in 2026 is 4.74 million tons per year, and the new PP capacity is 4.4 million tons per year [27][33] - **2025 overseas polyolefin production**: In 2025, the total overseas new polyethylene capacity was 2.382 million tons, and there was an expected 1.85 - million - ton PP capacity expansion, with 600,000 tons in India already realized [35][38] Polyolefin Maintenance - **PE maintenance by process**: In 2025, the overall PE device maintenance volume remained high. Oil - based and alkane - based maintenance volumes were relatively large, while coal - based maintenance volume was similar to the same period [41] - **PP maintenance by process**: In 2025, the PP device maintenance volume continued to be high. Oil - based and PDH - based maintenance volumes were higher than the same period, while coal - based maintenance volume changed little [44] - **Polyolefin operating rate forecast**: The PE operating rate is expected to recover, and the PP operating rate is also expected to increase, but attention should be paid to the raw material supply and profit of PDH devices [53] Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export - **Domestic polyolefin production**: In 2025, the monthly PE output exceeded 2.6 million tons, and from January to October, the total production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production from January to October was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11% [63] - **Polyolefin production profit and operating rate**: In 2025, the polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by raw material prices, and the operating rate was generally low. The operating rate of alkane - based PE and PP devices was affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [68] - **Polyolefin non - standard price spread performance**: In 2025, the LLDPE operating rate increased significantly, and the non - standard price spread of PE is expected to narrow in 2026. The PP non - standard price spread showed a trend of narrowing and then rising [77] - **Polyolefin import - export situation**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative polyethylene imports decreased by 3% year - on - year, and cumulative polypropylene imports decreased by 8% year - on - year. The PE external dependence is decreasing, and PP is gradually changing to an export - oriented product [95] - **Polyolefin domestic - foreign price spread**: In 2025, the LLDPE import window was mostly closed, and the export window was also closed. The PP import and export windows were mainly closed, but the Southeast Asian PP demand showed a slight recovery [103] Polyolefin Demand and Inventory - **Polyolefin downstream demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic plastic product demand increased slightly, but the external demand was weak. The downstream demand for PE and PP was generally insufficient, waiting for policy - driven stimulation [125] - **Polyolefin inventory**: In 2025, the polyolefin inventory remained high. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the high inventory, and the inventory is expected to start destocking in March [155][157]