Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts a 4% economic growth for the US by 2026, which has garnered significant market attention [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Bessent emphasizes that 2026 will see substantial tax refunds and a combination of "real wage growth" and "low-inflation growth" [1] - The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8% [1] - The anticipated economic growth in 2026 is projected at 1.7% due to enhanced tariff effects, contrasting sharply with Bessent's 4% prediction [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates only twice before then [1] - The Federal Reserve is tasked with balancing inflation pressures from tariffs against a weakening labor market, which will influence future economic trends [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair, to be appointed by Bessent, will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy that aligns with fiscal policy to achieve growth expectations [2] Group 3: Technological Impact on Growth - Investment related to artificial intelligence is driving industrial production growth in the US and many Asian economies, injecting new momentum into economic development [2]

Currency Performance in Asia - In 2025, major Asian currencies showed significant divergence in performance, with the Japanese yen halting a four-year decline against the US dollar, initially rising from 157.7 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to 140.9 yen per dollar by mid-April, before falling to 155.4 yen per dollar by December 1 [1] - The decline in the yen accelerated after the appointment of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in late October, attributed to his accommodative monetary policy, despite initial gains being driven by a weaker dollar and inflation-induced rate hike expectations in Japan [1] - The South Korean won also stopped its four-year decline but remained at a 16-year low, trading at 1468.63 won per dollar as of December 2 [1] - Other currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit appreciated against the dollar, with increases of 5.4%, over 7.2%, and over 8.2% respectively [1] Renminbi Strength - Since the beginning of 2025, the renminbi has shown strong resilience, with the onshore exchange rate surpassing 7.07 per dollar on December 1, marking a new high since mid-October of the previous year [2] - The strong performance of the renminbi is attributed to a relatively weak dollar and the stable economic fundamentals in China, which support the currency's revaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund's October report highlighted the resilience of the Asia-Pacific economies in 2025, with economic growth in the first half exceeding expectations despite multiple internal and external challenges [2]

来源：环球市场播报 澳大利亚央行行长Michele Bullock周三表示，该央行正密切关注通胀压力，并已准备好在通胀出现回升 迹象时采取行动，这暗示官员们可能不得不重新转向紧缩政策。 Bullock在堪培拉的一次议会听证会上表示：如果消费者价格上涨被证明是"更具持续性，我们将在未来 几个月获得更多相关信息，那么这对我们来说意味着需求压力仍在持续，这可能会对未来的货币政策路 径产生影响。" "预测仍然显示通胀将会回落，"Bullock说，"但显然我们对可能出现的通胀压力保持警惕，理事会将做 出相应的反应。" 对此，交易员将澳大利亚央行加息的预期从先前的11月提前至8月，而对政策较为敏感的三年期国债收 益率也小幅走高。 政府周三公布的数据显示，截至9月的三个月内，国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长0.4%，低于经济学家 预估的0.7%，也低于上一季度向上修正后的0.7%。澳大利亚央行货币政策委员会将于下周召开会议， 市场普遍预期其将维持利率在3.6%不变。 ...

标题：香港金融管理局跟随美联储维持利率不变：稳定金融市场，支持经济增长 正文： 作为国际金融中心，香港在全球金融体系中扮演着重要角色。金管局通过与美联储等全球主要央行的紧 密合作，不断提升香港在全球金融市场的影响力。在跨境金融合作方面，金管局将继续加强与其他国家 和地区的沟通与合作，共同应对全球金融挑战。 香港金融管理局（金管局）于近日宣布维持基准利率不变，与美联储的决策保持一致，旨在维护香港金 融市场的稳定，并继续支持香港的经济增长。 四、强调风险管理，确保金融系统稳健运行 一、跟随美联储决策，维护金融市场稳定 在维持利率不变的同时，金管局强调风险管理的重要性。金管局将继续加强对金融机构的监管，确保金 融系统的稳健运行。此外，金管局还将密切关注全球经济和金融市场的动态，及时应对潜在风险。 在全球经济复杂多变的背景下，美联储的决策对全球金融市场产生重要影响。香港金融管理局作为香港 的金融监管机构，紧密关注全球经济发展态势及主要央行的货币政策。此次跟随美联储维持利率不变， 旨在保持香港金融市场的稳定，并防范潜在风险。 五、未来货币政策展望 二、维持低利率环境，支持经济增长与金融发展 金管局此次维持利率不变，旨在 ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

欧洲央行行长拉加德上周强调，央行当前的货币政策立场总体令人放心，称"鉴于我们已经成功控制住 的这轮通胀周期，我们的政策利率设定是恰当的"。 市场目前认为，欧洲央行在12月18日今年最后一次会议上，将2%存款利率下调的可能性几乎为零，且 预计明年降息概率仅为25%。 12月政策会议将公布新的经济预测——包括首次对2028年的展望。此前的预测均显示通胀会暂时跌破 2%目标，而这一趋势可能因欧盟新的碳定价体系推迟实施而进一步加深。不过，多位管委提醒，不能 对这一因素赋予过高权重。 在经历疫情后的通胀飙升之后，欧元区20国的通胀率已连续9个月接近欧洲央行2%的目标水平。 不过，各成员国之间的通胀情况仍存在明显差异，这源于不同的经济表现及基数效应。最新的国家数据 表明，德国通胀再度抬头，法国持稳，西班牙和意大利则有所回落。 这些数据印证了欧洲央行关于通胀已基本得到遏制的判断，决策者现在有充足时间观察价格走势，再考 虑是否采取进一步行动。 当地时间周二，欧盟统计局公布的数据显示，欧元区11月通胀率小幅上升，这将进一步巩固市场对欧洲 央行短期内不会再次降息的预期。具体数据显示，欧元区11月CPI年率初值录得2.2%，高于1 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the commitment to combat inflation, emphasizing its significant impact on the economy and people's lives, and stated that measures will continue to ensure inflation returns to target levels [2] - The sources of inflation were identified as supply chain issues, energy prices, and temporary increases in demand for certain goods, prompting the Fed to implement various monetary and fiscal policy measures [2] Group 2 - The Chairman hinted at a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes, indicating that as inflationary pressures ease and the economy recovers, monetary policy adjustments will be made based on actual conditions [3] - Future decisions will take into account inflation data, employment market conditions, and the global economic environment [3] Group 3 - The economic outlook presented by the Chairman suggested that despite current challenges, the U.S. economy shows resilience and is expected to achieve a full recovery, contingent on continued measures to ensure inflation returns to target levels and maintain stable economic growth [4] - The global economic environment's influence on the U.S. economy was highlighted, with a commitment to closely monitor international developments [4] Group 4 - Overall, the testimony provided important reference information for the market, aiding in stabilizing market expectations and confidence, while emphasizing the need to monitor key factors such as inflation data, employment conditions, and the global economic landscape [5] - The decisions made by the Federal Reserve are expected to have significant implications for the global economy, prompting close attention from various stakeholders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, focusing on Kevin Hassett as a leading contender and the implications of this selection on U.S. monetary policy amid a divided Federal Reserve [5][6][9]. Candidate Selection - President Trump has a candidate in mind for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the most prominent contender among five potential candidates [6][7]. - The prediction markets show a strong consensus on Hassett's chances, with probabilities of 79% on Kalshi, 75% on PredictIt, and 63% on Polymarket for his appointment [7]. Federal Reserve's Internal Division - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for further rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks, while others are concerned about inflation threats [9]. - The futures market indicates an 87.6% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming decision on December 10 [10]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The new Fed Chair will face a complex monetary policy environment, with discussions around simplifying the Fed's mission and the role of regional Fed presidents [11]. - Mohamed El-Erian supports the idea of a more restrained Fed, emphasizing the need for reform to better serve the economy [12]. Shadow Chair Situation - The article highlights the potential for a "shadow chair" scenario, where the new appointee may overshadow the current Chair, Jerome Powell, during the transition [14]. - Concerns are raised about the implications of Hassett's potential appointment, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance, impacting the dollar negatively [15].

智通财经APP获悉，欧元区11月通胀率小幅上涨，这支持了欧洲央行的观点，即目前几乎没有理由进一 步降低借贷成本。周二公布的数据显示，欧元区11月CPI同比上涨2.2%，高于经济学家预测中值2.1%和 前值2.1%;剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比涨幅持平于2.4%，与经济学家预测中值一致; 备受关注的服务业通胀则略有上升。 投资者和经济学家对此表示认同。他们预计，欧洲央行本月将再次将存款机制利率维持在2%不变。此 前，该行已连续八次以25个基点的幅度降息，将存款机制利率从4%的峰值一路下调。 在经历疫情后的飙升后，欧元区通胀率已连续九个月接近欧洲央行设定的2%目标水平。不过，受各国 经济状况差异及基数效应影响，欧元区各成员国之间的通胀情况差异较大——德国通胀加速，法国通胀 保持稳定，西班牙和意大利的通胀则有所缓解。 欧洲央行行长拉加德上周强调了该行对当前货币政策立场的满意态度。拉加德表示："考虑到我们已经 成功控制住的通胀周期，我们处于有利位置"。她还补充称，利率"设定得当"。 通胀前景温和加之经济复苏势头增强，促使大多数分析师预测欧洲央行基准利率将在2026年之前保持不 变。与此同时，面对贸易和 ...

Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2025, the fiscal financing scale reached a historical high, with net government financing amounting to CNY 14.36 trillion, accounting for an estimated 10.2% of GDP[1] - The general public budget deficit reached CNY 56,600 billion, an increase of CNY 16,000 billion from 2024, marking a deficit ratio of 4% for the first time[12] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high expenditure intensity compared to previous years[15] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintained a "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025, with the R007 average rate around 1.50%, reflecting a low interest rate environment[25] - The frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2025 were more cautious than in 2024, with only one reduction of 10 basis points for the 7-day reverse repurchase rate[28] - Social financing growth showed a "front high and back stable" trend, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0% in July 2025, before gradually declining to 8.5% by October[30] Policy Coordination - The central bank's adjustment of government bond trading operations in 2025 demonstrated a flexible response to market changes, enhancing the overall effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies[2] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks were aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios, with CNY 5,000 billion allocated for this purpose in 2025[43] - The government emphasized the need for fiscal policy to support economic growth and structural transformation, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% for 2026[3]