Core Insights - The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) is set to release the retail sales report, with market expectations indicating a month-on-month (MoM) growth of 0.2% for October, consistent with previous figures [2] - The retail sales data is a crucial indicator of consumer demand and economic activity, and its performance could influence the euro's strength against the US dollar [3] Retail Sales and Currency Impact - If actual retail sales exceed expectations, it may provide short-term support for the euro, potentially allowing the euro/USD exchange rate to recover from daily losses [3] - Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, the downward pressure on the euro/USD may be limited due to the European Central Bank's stance on maintaining stable interest rates amid uncertainty [3] - The market will also focus on the release of Germany's unemployment rate and initial consumer price index (CPI) data on the same day, which will contribute to a comprehensive assessment of economic health [3] Dollar Dynamics and External Factors - The euro/USD exchange rate is influenced not only by eurozone data but also by fluctuations in the US dollar [4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have significantly increased, with over 87% probability for a 25 basis point cut, compared to 39% a week prior [4] - This expectation may suppress the strength of the US dollar, providing upward momentum for the euro/USD exchange rate [4] Technical Analysis - The euro/USD has recently shown a volatile trend, currently slightly down to around 1.1590, ending a three-day upward streak [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 50-day moving average of 1.1606 and the November 13 high of 1.1655, while initial support is noted at the 9-day moving average of 1.1571 and the three-month low of 1.1468 [5] - Technical patterns suggest that the exchange rate may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market remains resilient despite a 5% decline from its historical high, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is a key factor for gold prices [3][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 28, gold is trading around $4,179 per ounce, maintaining a position near a two-week high despite a slight drop to $4,157.22 on the previous day [1]. - The market is currently experiencing low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to cautious investor behavior as they assess signals from the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Key fundamental factors supporting gold prices include a slowdown in U.S. economic growth leading to lower interest rates, a weakening dollar, ongoing safe-haven demand, and strong central bank buying [3][4]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has exceeded 85%, contrasting with previous statements from Fed Chair Powell that did not guarantee a cut [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, with structural factors such as declining real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and safe-haven demand expected to drive prices back to historical highs [4]. - Short-term price consolidation is anticipated within the $4,000 to $4,170 range, but a clear signal from the Fed regarding rate cuts could lead to a breakout [4][5]. - The year 2026 is projected to be a significant period for gold, with expectations of continued interest from investors and central banks [5].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market has seen a slight increase of 0.17% in the last 24 hours, with active trading volumes. The performance of altcoins is being closely monitored to see if they surpass Bitcoin [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from a support level of $86,000, with a current price around $91,507, showing a 0.51% increase in the last 24 hours. The key resistance level is at $91,600 [4][8] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at approximately $3,021, experiencing a 0.22% decline in the last 24 hours, with critical support levels at $2,980 and $2,925 [6][8] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is about $3.12 trillion, with a total trading volume of approximately $1.15 trillion in the last 24 hours [8] Institutional Activity - There is a strong institutional demand for altcoins, with XRP ETF accumulating 8 million tokens in 24 hours, totaling over $628 million, leading to an 11% increase in XRP's price. Privacy coins like Zcash have surged by 28.86% due to significant capital inflow [1] Liquidation Events - In the last 24 hours, a total of 81,957 traders were liquidated, amounting to $130 million, with long positions suffering the most at $84.12 million [2][3] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is categorized as "extreme fear" with a fear and greed index score of 24. However, Bitcoin's rebound indicates potential stabilization, and the fear of panic selling has decreased significantly, with a drop of 82% in BTC liquidation volume [8] Price Movements of Other Major Coins - BNB is priced at approximately $894, showing a 0.22% increase, with key support at $888 and resistance at $905 [7][8] - Solana (SOL) is priced at around $140, experiencing a 2.07% decline, with short-term resistance at $141 and $142.4 [7][8] - Other notable price movements include Dogecoin (DOGE) down 2.13%, and Avalanche (AVAX) up 0.67% [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of the stock index futures are mainly range - bound, with a weak intraday view. The main reason is that the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened due to weak policy signals, and the willingness of funds to liquidate and leave the market temporarily has increased. However, there are still strong support forces for the stock index, such as the strong expectation of future policy benefits and the unchanged trend of long - term funds entering the market. Overall, the current market main line is not clear, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is that the willingness of funds to liquidate has increased in the short term [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is that the stock index rose and then fell yesterday, with the whole - market turnover shrinking by 93.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Due to weak policy signals, overseas Fed rate - cut expectations, and AI investment bubble risks, the willingness of funds to liquidate and leave temporarily has increased. Although the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to October 2025 has slowed down, and the consumption and investment data in October have weakened, the expectation of future policy benefits is still strong, and the support force for the stock index is strong. Therefore, the stock index will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Economic Situation**: Overseas, the US employment data shows significant differentiation, and the Fed officials' recent statements strengthen the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend. In the short term, the appreciation rhythm may slow down, but the overall appreciation trend remains unchanged [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term due to weak fundamentals and lack of new positive factors [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The medium - term view is to hold long positions, and new long positions can be gradually established at low prices [5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping to Europe futures is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [7]. - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise. In the short term, pay attention to the December Fed interest rate cut expectation and the 60 - day moving average. Dips are considered opportunities to increase long positions [10]. - **Copper**: The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000. Downstream enterprises in need can buy futures for hedging [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [21]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [26]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. - **LPG**: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - **PE**: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - **Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - **Log**: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The profit of domestic industrial enterprises is declining marginally. The US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is strengthened [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0806, down 4 points. The mid - price appreciated to the highest level since October 14, 2024. It is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell, with shrinking trading volume. It is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds were sideways on Thursday. It is recommended to hold long positions in the medium term and gradually build new long positions at low prices [4][5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping to Europe futures was narrowly sideways. It is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [5][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Platinum and palladium rose and then fell, while gold and silver maintained a sideways movement. The Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is high. It is expected that the price of precious metals will rise in the medium - to - long term [8][10]. - **Copper**: The INE copper price rose sharply. The global copper market is expected to be in short supply in 2026. The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000 [11][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13][14]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15][16]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fell. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton in the short term and seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips in the medium - to - long term [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [19][21]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29][30]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - **PE**: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - **Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - **Log**: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59].

两大基准原油料连续第四个月月度下跌，或创2023年以来最长连跌周期，反映全球供应充裕的持续压 制。 市场关注美主导的俄乌和谈，任何进展或促西方解除俄油制裁、释放供应。普京称当前草案或可成冲突 结束基础，但谈判失败将续打；泽连斯基确认乌美本周会晤细化方案与安全细节。OPEC+周日开会， 消息称大概率维持产量不变，并或敲定产能评估机制。 尽管供应端承压，本周布伦特与WTI原油仍有望录得逾1%的周涨幅，主因市场对美联储降息预期升 温，提振经济增长与石油需求前景。 即将到期的1月布伦特原油期货持平于63.27美元/桶，交投清淡；更活跃的2月合约交投于62.85美元附 近。WTI原油期货涨0.65%至59.03美元/桶，前一交易日因美国感恩节假期未进行结算。 摘要周五国际油价表现平稳，投资者紧盯俄乌和谈进展及即将召开的OPEC+产量会议，以研判全球石 油供应格局变化。 周五国际油价表现平稳，投资者紧盯俄乌和谈进展及即将召开的OPEC+产量会议，以研判全球石油供 应格局变化。 截至北京时间周五（11月28日）16:41，布伦特原油报62.96美元/盎司，涨幅0.06%。美原油报59.08美元/ 盎司，涨幅0.91% ...

同时，俄罗斯总统普京表示和平协议"尚无最终版本"，美乌将继续磋商，但涉及领土等核心分歧仍未解 决。地缘层面呈现"进展但未落地"的状态，令避险情绪表现为"降温但未消退"，对金价形成边际支撑。 来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：感恩节流动性偏薄，黄金区间震荡待破 昨日金价整体呈现窄幅震荡，与预期一致，日内波动有限。欧盘时段在约4165附近承压，按计划布局区 间空单；美盘回落至约4150附近手动止盈，小幅落袋约10余美元。此后价格围绕该区间反复，未能走出 趋势性行情，最终收于4157美元/盎司，日线收出小阴线。 周五（11月28日）亚市早盘，金价走强，盘中一度上探至约4193美元/盎司。主要驱动来自对美联储12 月降息25个基点的高概率预期，当前市场定价约为85%—86.9%，较一周前的不足40%显著抬升，压低 美元与实际利率，抬升黄金吸引力。 故日内操作上张津镭建议： 黄金：4193-4150区间操作，止损6美金，止盈30-35美金。若是突破4200关口，可回调出空做多，依次 上看。 从技术上来看，昨日黄金一直居高震荡，呈现三角震荡趋势，本应该在假期因素下继续震荡，然美联储 降息预期打破市场的平静，小时图级别行情也 ...

| | | | 1 1 1 发布日期:202 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分符号:上02017 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 超势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | 肢指 | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | 宏观金融。必 | | | 略角度看,近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国 债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 怪啊。 | | | | | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支 | | | | | 撑,铜价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为说 | 近期产业面驱动有限，而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 格继续 ...

Group 1 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased, leading COMEX gold to return to the $4200 level, which has positively impacted the Huaxia Gold ETF, rising by 0.72% this week and accumulating a rebound of 2.66% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December exceeds 80%, which typically benefits gold assets as interest rates decline [1] - Commodity ETFs are being used as hedging tools during stock market fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index, STAR Market, and CSI 300 experiencing cumulative declines of 12%, 6%, and 2.7% respectively since October, while the soybean meal ETF has risen by 6% since October 20 [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) is the lowest fee investment tool for gold, anchored to physical gold and reflecting the price fluctuations of gold directly, with a net inflow of 1.349 billion yuan over the past 20 days [2] - The soybean meal ETF (159985) is the only ETF tracking the Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal futures price index, significantly influenced by the supply and price fluctuations of upstream soybeans and downstream pork markets, and has attracted continuous investment for 62 trading days since August 26 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resilience of gold prices amidst market fluctuations, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2][3] - Gold prices have shown strong support, maintaining above the critical level of $4000 per ounce despite a 5% decline from the historical high of $4381.21 reached on October 20 [2][3] - The recent decline in the US dollar index, which fell over 0.6% this week, has provided additional support for gold prices, reflecting market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through previous resistance levels, suggesting a bullish trend, with current trading around $4193 per ounce [4][6] - Short-term trading strategies recommend focusing on buying on dips around $4155-4160 and selling on rebounds near $4193-4196, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6] - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, as a rate cut could trigger a new upward trend in gold prices [3][4]