Group 1 - The core principle in response to trade uncertainties is to focus on "trading facts rather than expectations," indicating that risk assets have returned to their original prices amid the tariff war [1] - A-shares are expected to continue showing characteristics of risk preference recovery and thematic rotation, with a focus on low institutional holdings and thematic trading opportunities [1] - Three major trends are emphasized: the unwavering trend of enhancing China's independent technological capabilities, the European Union's reconstruction of autonomous defense and energy infrastructure, and the necessity for China to accelerate the "dual circulation" strategy to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous positions [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved Sino-U.S. relations [2] - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel numbers reached new highs, with significant growth in inbound travel, county tourism, and long-distance travel [2] Group 3 - The analysis of tariff burden sharing reveals that industries with strong competitive advantages, such as textiles and telecommunications, are likely to bear less tariff burden, while weaker industries like pharmaceuticals may face higher burdens [3][4] - The U.S. has a high import dependency on certain Chinese products, which influences the tariff negotiation dynamics [4] Group 4 - The EU's economic recovery is complicated by U.S. tariff policies, with expectations that the negative impact of tariffs will manifest before the positive effects of fiscal expansion [5] - The global manufacturing PMI for April 2025 shows a slight decline, indicating pressures from tariffs and economic uncertainties [6] Group 5 - The banking sector experienced negative revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, but there are expectations for gradual recovery in subsequent quarters due to adjustments in interest rates and market conditions [8] - The insurance sector reported better-than-expected Q1 results, indicating a potential for a slow bull market trajectory [17] Group 6 - The electronic industry showed normal growth despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with strong performance in sectors like computing power and automotive components [10] - Fund allocation in the electronic sector has increased, particularly in semiconductors, reflecting a positive outlook amid trade policy uncertainties [10][11] Group 7 - The tourism market during the May Day holiday showed robust demand, with significant increases in travel numbers and a positive outlook for the service sector [14] - The water price reform in Guangzhou is expected to alleviate cost pressures for water supply companies, potentially leading to improved industry returns [15]

Group 1 - South Korea is seeking to engage in "calm and orderly" negotiations with the United States regarding trade issues, aiming to reach an agreement before July to avoid additional tariffs [1] - The South Korean delegation, including the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Trade, met with U.S. officials to discuss the potential agreement, coinciding with the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by President Trump [1] - The U.S. has been increasingly exerting control over South Korea, with some commentators suggesting that South Korea is becoming a "puppet" of the U.S. in the context of strategic competition with China [3] Group 2 - The South Korean government is maintaining strategic ambiguity in its foreign policy, particularly regarding its stance towards China and the U.S., as it prepares for upcoming elections [5] - The current administration is cautious about rushing into an agreement with the U.S. due to potential political ramifications and the desire to avoid being seen as choosing sides in the U.S.-China rivalry [7] - Former President Moon Jae-in has publicly criticized the current government's actions, indicating a potential shift in South Korea's political landscape and its approach to international relations [7]

Global Expansion Policy Impacts - The U.S. symmetrical tariffs have triggered a global trade war, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 49%, exceeding market expectations [8][9] - The tariffs are based on long-standing trade imbalances and ignore various objective factors, potentially restructuring regional economic alliances in the short term [8][11] - Emerging countries may serve as buffers in the tariff conflict, but uncertainties remain regarding the export strategies of Chinese companies through these nations [11][12] - The cancellation of tariff exemptions by the U.S. is likely to occur by September 2025, impacting cross-border business operations and leading to a price transmission effect of approximately 20% [18][21] Global Expansion Industry Trends - The smart pet products market is rapidly growing, with the U.S. as the largest consumer market, while the U.K., Japan, and India show significant potential [2] - The industry is shifting from a focus on functional and modular product iterations to emotional quality strategies in pet care [2] - The global gaming market is driven by mobile games in emerging markets, with a notable shift in revenue structures and growth opportunities in PC gaming [2] Global Multinational Corporate Case - Publicis Groupe, a leading global communications group, maintains financial stability while expanding its global business through an integrated platform strategy [6] - The company employs a strategy of small acquisitions and large integrations to enhance service capabilities, demonstrating growth certainty and financial improvement potential [6]

Trade Impact - The U.S. has increased tariffs on China by 145% this year, while China has raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%[5] - The total trade volume between China and the U.S. in 2024 is projected to be approximately $688.28 billion, with exports at $524.66 billion and imports at $163.62 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of about $361.04 billion[7] - The WTO has downgraded its global goods trade growth forecast to a decline of 0.2% due to tariff impacts, significantly affecting China[7][8] Industry-Specific Effects - The computer and communication equipment sectors are expected to face the most significant profit impacts, while the automotive and chemical sectors are less affected[9][10] - The telecommunications industry may experience increased supply chain costs and higher market entry barriers, but can mitigate these through domestic alternatives[9] - The consumer electronics sector, particularly companies like Apple, faces pressure as approximately 30% of their sales come from the U.S. market[10] Strategic Responses - Companies are advised to adjust orders, manage inventory, and consider cost transfer strategies to mitigate tariff impacts[12] - Long-term strategies include diversifying production locations and increasing domestic innovation to reduce reliance on U.S. markets[12] - The Chinese government is expected to enhance macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to support affected industries[12]

Market Overview - On April 28, the market experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.65%[2] - The total trading volume was 1.08 trillion, a decrease of approximately 60 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Most sectors declined, with notable drops in real estate, social services, automotive, and construction materials[1] - Only a few sectors, including banking, steel, and utilities, showed slight increases, indicating a weak market sentiment overall[1] Capital Flow - On April 28, there was a net outflow of 0.28 billion in the Shanghai market and a net outflow of 55.79 billion in the Shenzhen market[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were electricity, semiconductors, and IT services, while real estate development, automotive parts, and communication equipment saw the largest outflows[3] Economic Indicators - In Q1, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created, an increase of 50,000 year-on-year, indicating a stable employment situation[7] - The People's Bank of China plans to implement new structural monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and support employment and economic growth[4] Industry Developments - The development of flexible microelectrode implantation robots for brain-computer interfaces has progressed, supporting advancements in brain science[8] - The National Energy Administration is promoting the research and development of advanced nuclear technologies, including fourth-generation nuclear power and small modular reactors[9] Investment Trends - Public REITs have seen a significant increase, with 7 new listings this year, bringing the total to 65, and several more projects in the pipeline[12] - The newly launched free cash flow-themed ETFs have collectively raised over 10 billion, with 12 already established[13]

来源：银河期货 作者：银河期货 研报正文 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 4月，贵金属表现依旧受到市场瞩目。伦敦金上触历史新高3500.12美元/盎司，月涨幅7%；伦敦银受到黄金的托举 回到近期高位、但未能突破34.5附近的阻力，月跌幅2%。沪金触及836.3元/克的历史高点，月涨幅9%。沪银相对疲 软，月跌幅2.4%。 【市场展望】 往后看，各经济体对于关税的博弈仍有不断反复的可能，关税政策进展和美国经济基本面间的演绎节奏具有高度的 不确定性，预期和现实间的差距将成为贵金属价格波动的放大器，而黄金作为对冲滞涨风险的优质资产、且贵金属 当前牛市的趋势并未被打破，可仍以低多思路为主。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：延续低多思路。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：领式看涨期权。 风险提示：央行购金不及预期，关税谈判进展超预期、美国经济韧性超预期、光伏需求不及预期。 第二部分 行情复盘与前瞻 一、行情回顾 4月，贵金属表现依旧受到市场瞩目。伦敦金从3122美元启动，中间受到流动性的拖累出现回调，而后开启快速拉 涨的走势，一度上触历史新高3500.12美元/盎司，月涨幅7%；伦敦银月初的回调更深，此后受到黄金的托举回到近 期 ...

调研报告-PTA 华东聚酯产业链下游 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | PTA: | | 震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 4 | 月 | 28 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★终端五月压力仍存，开工率可能继续向下调整 目前前往美国的的织造订单基本全停，已生产但未发出的货物都 积压在生产企业和贸易商的仓库里。面对关税的冲击，有渠道的 企业尝试拓展其他国家的市场或者转为内销。部分企业找海外代 加工渠道，但能转移的订单量有限。产成品积累的情况下，加弹 厂和织造厂五一期间基本都有 3-7 天放假计划。五月内销也是步入 淡季，内外销综合压力下，五月织造产业可能面临进一步挑战。 能 ★下游阶段性采购下，化纤厂库存高位有所去化 源 化 工 织造企业普遍认为当下原料价格已经是低位，四月底可以看到化 纤厂产销阶段性有明显放量，库存高位去化，聚酯降负预期有所 改善。但本轮补货更多是绝对价格偏低刺激下游刚需补货，如果 终端织造五月负荷继续下调，两环节的矛盾可能会进一步积累。 ★关税博弈可能 ...

Macro Economic Insights - The first quarter of 2025 showed a strong economic performance, with retail sales exceeding expectations and stable growth in passenger car sales[4] - However, the sales data for commercial housing in 30 major cities showed a month-on-month decline, indicating potential weaknesses in the investment sector[4] - Export pressures are expected to increase in the second quarter due to external uncertainties, necessitating counter-cyclical policy support[4] Fixed Income Market Outlook - The recommendation is to seek structural opportunities while maintaining a defensive stance, particularly in short-duration bonds due to stable funding conditions[5] - It is advised to avoid ultra-long-term bonds due to supply pressures, while considering 10-year government bonds for potential entry points after policy-driven fluctuations[5] - Focus on high-grade municipal bonds and central enterprise bonds in the credit sector, with caution regarding liquidity risks from increased supply in the second quarter[5] Equity Market Analysis - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.32% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 5.94%[12] - Despite a 16.1% decrease in average daily trading volume to 1.15 trillion yuan, there is a recovery in short-term risk appetite supported by passive and bottom-fishing funds[6] - A cautious optimism is recommended, focusing on policy-driven consumption sectors and undervalued blue-chip stocks while being wary of external tariff disruptions[6] Overseas Market Perspective - Concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and policy uncertainty are leading to increased risk aversion in dollar assets, with a potential rebound in U.S. Treasury yields expected to face challenges[7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to remain volatile, with a potential range of 4.6%-4.8% if market panic escalates[7] - The dollar index is under pressure amid weak market confidence and uncertain trade negotiations[7] Overall Asset Allocation Strategy - Current asset allocation should balance defensive positioning with structural opportunities, focusing on short-term government bonds as a defensive base[8] - In equities, three main themes are highlighted: consumption driven by marginal policy easing, export-oriented industries affected by tariff negotiations, and technology trends in AI and semiconductor sectors[8] - Caution is advised in overseas allocations, particularly in dollar assets, while emphasizing stable cash flow assets in Europe to hedge against policy uncertainties[8]

固收周度点评 20250427 债市蓄力，提前布局 2025 年 04 月 27 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com ➢ 债市盘整期，蓄力破局 本周（4/21-4/25）债市震荡特征较为明显，上半周多空交织，关税政策反 复放大债市波动，周初税期走款压力下资金面有所收敛，市场处于 MLF 续作、 特别国债发行及降准落地的期待中，情绪较为纠结。进入后半周，债市震荡走强， 特别国债发行结果尚可，叠加当日公告的 MLF 续作 6000 亿元，资金价格有所 回落，提振债市表现，周五政治局会议落地，再提"适时降准降息"，但影响或边 际减弱，债市延续震荡格局。 4/21，债市震荡走弱，早盘 LPR 报价维持不变，税期走款扰动下，资金面 边际收敛，叠加股市低开高走，债市利率开盘后震荡上行，午后随着市场情绪有 所改善，转为震荡行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 1.8、2.6、 1.7、1.9BP 至 1.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues, and a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first. Monetary policy will strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment and cooperate with fiscal policy. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may land in the first half of the year, and a comprehensive interest rate cut may be launched if necessary. Structural tools will support key areas and new tools may be created to promote consumption and stabilize foreign trade [4][34][36]. - The supply pressure of interest - rate bonds may increase. The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan, with supply peaks in the second and third quarters. The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies, and the yield center may decline in the second half of the year. Attention can be paid to local bond trading opportunities [4][37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental and Liquidity Monitoring - In the first quarter, the economy started well with GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year. The industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly. Investment and social retail sales increased, but there were still issues such as negative real estate investment growth. CPI and PPI showed different trends, and PMI data indicated overall weak performance [6]. - The MLF policy interest rate attribute was diluted, and the money market was tight with the central money rate rising. The central bank mainly used repurchase operations for net capital injection, and did not cut interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio. Banks faced high liability pressure, and non - bank deposits decreased significantly [9][12]. 3.2 Interest - rate Bond Market Operation - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. In the first quarter, the total issuance scale reached 7.87 trillion yuan, with increases in all types of bonds. Special refinancing bonds for local debt increased significantly, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was still slow compared with 2022 - 2023 [15]. - The yield of interest - rate bonds first rose and then fell, with high volatility. The 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.8129% at the end of March, up 13.77BP from the end of last year. The yield can be divided into three stages in the first quarter: interval fluctuation, upward fluctuation, and downward fluctuation [17][18][19]. - The trading volume of interest - rate bonds increased, mainly driven by the increase in policy - financial bond trading. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed, and the local bond trading spread widened [24][25]. 3.3 Monetary Policy Outlook - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues. Considering overseas uncertainties and domestic economic challenges, the central bank will choose the timing to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first, and the use of structural tools will be increased [34][36]. 3.4 Interest - rate Bond Outlook - The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan. The issuance of government bonds will accelerate, and the second and third quarters may see supply peaks. If the US maintains high tariffs, it may drag down China's GDP growth, and incremental fiscal policies may be introduced, increasing the supply of interest - rate bonds [37][40]. - The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies. In the second quarter, the yield may fluctuate within a range, and may face upward pressure if the tariff negotiation eases. In the second half of the year, the yield center may decline if the economic repair pressure increases [43][44].