Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of recent interest rate cuts on deposit rates, leading to a shift in investment behavior towards wealth management products as a substitute for traditional deposits [1][2][5] - Major state-owned banks and several joint-stock banks have lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping to 0.95% and many banks entering the "1 era" with rates below 1% [2][3] - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to intensify, as lower deposit rates make wealth management products more attractive, particularly short-term products like cash management and pure bond products [1][5][6] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly seeking alternatives to traditional deposits, with many considering wealth management products that offer better returns and liquidity [3][4] - The decline in deposit rates is anticipated to increase the difficulty for banks in attracting deposits, while simultaneously directing more funds towards low-risk asset management products [4][6] - The wealth management market has shown growth, with a notable increase in scale, surpassing 31 trillion yuan by mid-May, driven by the comparative advantage of these products over traditional deposits [6][8] Group 3 - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is likely to exert downward pressure on the yields of fixed-income products, including bank wealth management products [8][9] - Cash management products are also experiencing declining yields, with average annualized returns falling to around 1.51% as of the end of April, reflecting the broader trend in the market [9] - The overall yield of wealth management products is expected to continue declining in the long term, influenced by the performance of underlying assets such as bonds [8][9]

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 差 基 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3898.17 | ↑0.54 | | 2016.4 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3865.4 | ↑0.63 | -32.77 | 608.4 | 52572 | ↑3690 | 150105 | ↑666 | | IF2507 | 3825.6 | ↑0.66 | -72.57 | 24.9 | 2176 | ↓308 | 2719 | ↑323 | | IF2509 | 3795 | ↑0.62 | -103.17 | 151.1 | 13301 | ↓855 | 69475 | ↑761 | | IF2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms by 10 basis points, indicating a transmission of policy rate adjustments to loan market rates [1][3][4]. Group 1: LPR Adjustments - The 1-year LPR is now 3.0% and the 5-year LPR is 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [1][3]. - Analysts believe there is still room for further LPR reductions to enhance the quality and accuracy of LPR quotes [5][6]. - The recent LPR adjustments align with a broader monetary policy shift aimed at reducing financing costs for businesses and households [4][6]. Group 2: Deposit Rate Cuts - A new round of deposit rate cuts has been initiated, with major banks reducing rates for various terms, including a 15 basis point cut for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year deposits, and a 25 basis point cut for 3-year and 5-year deposits [1][7]. - The latest adjustments mark the seventh round of deposit rate cuts since the market-oriented adjustment mechanism was established in April 2022 [7][9]. - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to increase the difficulty for banks in attracting deposits, while simultaneously directing more funds into low-risk asset management products [2][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The decline in deposit rates may lead to a further drop in broad interest rates, including government bond yields, and could encourage a "deposit migration" trend as investors seek higher returns [2][8]. - The anticipated increase in the scale of wealth management products could surpass 33 trillion yuan this year due to the lower deposit rates [2][8]. - The adjustments are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the economy amid external pressures and to stimulate domestic demand [4][6].

5月20日，新一轮存款利率下调全面启动。国有六大行一年期定存利率集体跌破1%，除了邮储银行降至0.98%，其余五大行均降至0.95%。招商银行和光大银 行已同步跟进下调存款利率。 值得注意的是，同一天， 最新贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉。其中，1年期LPR为3%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均较此前下降10个基点，再次出现"存 款利率降幅>LPR降幅"的非对称降幅。 存款利率跌破"1时代" 国有大行和头部股份行牵头开启2022年9月以来第七轮存款挂牌利率下调。 工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行和交通银行等主要国有大行活期存款利率统一降至0.05%。定期整存整取中，三个月期降至0.65%，半年期降至 0.85%，一年期降至0.95%，二年期降至1.05%，三年期降至1.25%，五年期降至1.3%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息等产品期限均下调15个基点。7天 期通知存款利率降至0.3%。 值得注意的是，邮储银行也采取了同等幅度的调整，但在部分期限存款利率上略高于其他国有大行，例如其半年期定期整存整取利率为0.86%，一年期为 0.98%。 在股份制银行方面，招商银行和光大银行已迅速跟进，下调幅度与 ...

Group 1 - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been released, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month, and the 1-year LPR at 3%, up from 3.1% last month [1][2] - The decrease in the 5-year LPR will lead to lower mortgage rates, benefiting homeowners, with a monthly payment reduction of 56 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, totaling a 20,000 yuan decrease over the loan term [2] - Major state-owned banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate dropping to 0.95%, resulting in a significant decrease in interest income for depositors [2][3] Group 2 - The decline in deposit rates is expected to drive funds towards the stock market, as lower returns on deposits make investing in stocks more attractive [3][4] - The capital market has seen unprecedented policy support since September 2022, which, combined with low deposit rates, is likely to trigger a "fund migration" to equities [4] - Positive economic policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to create a feedback loop that supports stock market growth [4][5] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown positive performance, with major indices closing higher, including a 0.38% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 1.22% rise in the North Star 50 Index, which reached a historical high [6] - Consumer sectors are performing well, particularly during promotional events like "618" and "520," with significant gains in beauty care, pet economy, and food and beverage sectors [10] - The artificial intelligence sector is projected to experience rapid growth, with government support and significant corporate developments, indicating a robust market potential [11] Group 4 - The innovative drug sector is witnessing significant activity, highlighted by a record $6 billion collaboration between a Chinese company and Pfizer, indicating strong interest in innovative pharmaceuticals [11] - Upcoming government policies aimed at stabilizing employment and economic growth are expected to be implemented by the end of June, which may further influence market dynamics [12]

Core Viewpoint - Financial institutions are adjusting the performance benchmarks of wealth management products in response to the recent interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, although the adjustments do not fully reflect the actual decline in underlying asset yields [1][2][3]. Group 1: Adjustments in Performance Benchmarks - Institutions such as Xingyin Wealth Management and Minsheng Wealth Management have lowered the performance benchmarks of several wealth management products, with some upper limits reduced by up to 155 basis points and lower limits by up to 60 basis points [2]. - For instance, Xingyin Wealth Management's product benchmark was adjusted from 2.05%-2.75% to 2.00%-2.70%, effective from May 14 [2]. - Minsheng Wealth Management also reduced its product benchmark from 3.1%-4.0% to 2.6%-3.1%, effective from May 13 [2]. Group 2: Market Response and Asset Allocation - The decline in performance benchmarks is seen as a normal adjustment to align with the downward trend in market interest rates [2][3]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to optimize their asset allocation structures to cope with performance pressures resulting from the declining yields of underlying assets [3][4]. - The supply-demand gap for low-risk, high-yield quality assets may further widen, as banks control deposit rates and guide costs downwards [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The recent interest rate cuts are expected to lead to a new wave of collective rate reductions by banks, potentially increasing the scale of wealth management products to historical highs, possibly exceeding 33 trillion yuan [6]. - In April, the scale of wealth management products increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching 31.3 trillion yuan, surpassing previous levels [6]. - There is a growing preference for "fixed income plus" wealth management products, which are expected to continue expanding in market share due to their risk diversification capabilities [7].

进入5月，银行理财规模延续4月增长态势，站稳31万亿元关口。业内人士认为，近期银行理财规模上 行，主要受益于债市利率下行带动理财收益回升、存款搬家效应显现、银行销售策略调整等。新一轮存 款利率下调即将来临，银行理财规模或进一步增长，年内有望达到33万亿元。"原来三年期存款利率为 2.05%，现在只有1.65%。"上海一名程序员告诉记者，近期多家股份制银行、城商行下调了存款利率， 中长期限定期存款利率调整幅度较大，不如直接买短期限理财产品，而且流动性更好。记者从普益标准 获悉，截至5月19日，银行理财市场存续规模达31.27万亿元，较年初增长4.41%。(上海证券报) ...

从更为细化的周期来看，今年1月，理财市场存续产品总量为40871款，随后逐月递增，2月达到41068款，3月为41249款，4月进一步攀升至41895款。 存续规模总计方面，1月规模为29.86万亿元，2月增长至29.98万亿元，逼近30万亿元大关。然而，3月存续规模出现了一次明显下滑，降至28.9万亿元，4月 理财产品存续规模上升明显，突破30万亿元达到31.1万亿元。 对理财产品存续规模上升明显的原因，市场观点认为，一方面，理财规模历来呈现"季末回落、季初回升"特征。3月季末，银行出于考核等因素，资金回表 使得理财规模短暂收缩；4月季末考核结束，资金重新回流理财市场，推动规模快速修复。 另一方面，在一季度"开门红"结束后，多家中小银行自4月起密集下调存款利率，各类型银行的挂牌3年期或5年期定期存款利率多数已跌至2%以下。而理财 收益有所回升，二者利差扩大引发"存款搬家"效应，居民将存款转移至理财产品，为理财市场带来增量资金，进而推动理财规模上升。 随着4月中小银行密集打响存款降息战，3年期、5年期存款利率跌破2%红线，"存款搬家"效应增强，银行理财规模迎来大幅回升。5月19日，北京商报记者 从普益标准获悉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The scale of bank wealth management has returned to historical highs, reaching 31.33 trillion yuan in May, marking a significant recovery after the redemption wave in 2022 [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale Trends - The bank wealth management scale typically experiences a "quarter-end decline and quarter-beginning recovery" pattern, with a notable increase of 2.05 trillion yuan in April 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [2] - The growth in April is attributed to a strong bond market and a "deposit migration" effect due to multiple small and medium-sized banks lowering deposit rates [2] - As of April 2025, the top three institutions in wealth management scale are China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, Xinyu Wealth Management, and Xinyin Wealth Management, with significant growth observed in major state-owned banks [5][6] Group 2: Yield and Performance of Wealth Management Products - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products rose to 3.35% in April, while the proportion of products below par decreased to 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight recovery in yields, the performance benchmark for newly issued wealth management products continues to decline, with benchmarks for various durations showing decreases compared to March [3][4] - Analysts predict that the yields of fixed-income wealth management products may drop to around 2% due to historically low bond yields [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - A new round of deposit rate cuts is expected to drive further growth in wealth management scale, potentially reaching 33 trillion yuan by the end of the year [7] - However, challenges remain as low credit bond yields may reduce the attractiveness of wealth management products, and regulatory changes could increase net asset value volatility [7][8] - The dynamics of the stock and bond markets, along with the impact of regulatory reforms on investor experience, will significantly influence the future growth of wealth management scale [8]

宏观研究 外需波动影响信贷，加速改善可期 投资要点 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-05-16 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率 波动或有所加大》 - 2025.05.13 4 月金融数据呈现了以下特点：一是美国加征关税外生冲击，微 观主体情绪趋于审慎和观望，企业投资扩产意愿或有所下降，主动消 化库存，制约信贷需求增长；二是财政加速落地，财政融资加快，同 时财政支持加大力度，推动实物工作量形成；三是资本市场保持高景 气度，存款利率下调趋势不变，存在"存款搬家"行为。 向后看，我们理解，金融数据或趋于改善。一是 4 月 12 日中美 经贸会谈释放积极利好，美国对中国关税税率大幅下调，短期改善市 场对出口预期，至少在 90 天豁免期内，出口或迎来较为明显回升， 带动企业融资改善。5 月 14 日，贸易追踪机构 Vizion 公布的数据显 示，在美国和中 ...