1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated narrowly, rising slightly by 0.01% to $9,567 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell by 0.18% to 77,850 yuan per ton. The US macro situation is mixed, with the April existing - home sales index falling year - on - year. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. With a relatively stable macro situation and fundamental support, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current weak market is due to the domestic off - season, and the de - stocking trend and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost center of aluminum has declined, and alumina enterprises are showing signs of resuming production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated slightly before the holiday, and the downstream rigid demand for stocking was limited. Aluminum prices continued to adjust narrowly above 20,000 yuan and were not significantly affected by alumina [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose by 1.99%, and SHFE nickel rose by 1.25%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The cost support of the stainless - steel industry chain is strong, but market transactions are weak, and inventory digestion is mainly for 200 - series and 300 - series. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has increased, but the demand for nickel sulfate is hard to increase. After a rapid decline, nickel prices may recover, but in the short term, they will still oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose slightly, SHFE copper fell. The US April existing - home sales index was far lower than expected. LME inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. High prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. The macro situation is improving, and the fundamentals support copper prices. It's difficult for prices to drop significantly, and the current weak market is due to the off - season. Copper may oscillate, and attention should be paid to capital games [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost of aluminum decreased, and alumina enterprises may resume production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated before the holiday, and downstream stocking was limited. Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly above 20,000 yuan [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and SHFE nickel rose. LME and domestic SHFE inventories decreased. The stainless - steel industry chain has strong cost support but weak transactions. In the new energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. After a decline, nickel prices may recover but will oscillate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and the import loss increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the premium decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium expanded. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the near - far month spread increased. The spot price remained unchanged, and the domestic and imported spot premiums decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the LME price decreased. The near - far month spread increased, and the spot price decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [50][51][52].

Market Overview - Major US stock indices closed higher, driven by Nvidia's strong earnings, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 117.03 points to 42215.73, a 0.28% increase; S&P 500 rose 23.62 points to 5912.17, a 0.40% increase; and Nasdaq Composite gained 74.93 points to 19175.87, a 0.39% increase [1] - The US Federal Appeals Court temporarily suspended a lower court's ruling that prohibited the enforcement of several tariff executive orders, reflecting ongoing trade policy developments [1][2] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock rose 3.2% following its quarterly earnings report, which exceeded market expectations, marking a year-to-date increase of 3.6% [1] - Boeing's stock increased by 3.3% as the CEO announced plans to raise the monthly production of the 737 MAX jets to 42 units in the coming months, with a further increase planned for early 2026 [3] - Best Buy's stock fell 7.3% after the company lowered its full-year same-store sales and profit forecasts, citing concerns that tariff factors may suppress consumer willingness to purchase high-priced items [3] Economic Data - The US GDP for Q1 was revised to a contraction of 0.2%, better than the previous estimate of -0.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 240,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000, indicating slight weakness in the labor market [2] - The S&P 500 index has risen 5.7% in May, with the Dow up 3.5% and Nasdaq soaring 9.5%, reflecting strong corporate earnings amid easing trade tensions [2] Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude futures down $0.90 to $60.94 per barrel, a 1.46% drop; Brent crude futures fell $0.97 to $63.35 per barrel, a 1.51% decrease [3] - Gold prices increased due to safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold futures rising $21.50 to $3343.9 per ounce, a 0.65% increase [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of trading lightly with a weak oscillation, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth, with an option market sentiment leaning towards bearishness. It is recommended to trade lightly with an oscillatory approach and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was 60 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 203,561 lots, up 1,088 lots; for alumina, they were 371,302 lots, down 9,474 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 58,850 tons, down 3,000 tons; the total alumina inventory was 219,801 tons, down 31,353 tons [2] - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,483 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 381,575 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum were 2,678 lots, up 6,026 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.09, down 0.03 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum were 53,542 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 141,289 tons, up 150 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the alumina basis was 269 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the electrolytic aluminum basis was 255 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points [2] - The alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2] - The alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2] - The alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real - estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.13%, down 0.10 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.97%, up 0.0084; the option call - put ratio was 0.69, down 0.0150 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March, with new - kinetic - energy industries growing rapidly [2] - China's key - city real - estate market showed a bottoming - out and stabilizing trend, with new and second - hand housing transactions increasing in the first four months [2] - Many car companies launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% with a 120 - day payment period [2] - US consumer confidence index rose from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, higher than all economists' expectations [2] - The US March FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the S&P/CS20 major cities' housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year [2] - The European Central Bank's Holzmann suggested postponing further interest - rate cuts until September [2] - The US and the EU may accelerate trade negotiations, and some countries' tariffs may be reduced to 10% or lower [2] - The Guinea Alumina Company hopes to resume friendly negotiations with the Guinea government to lift restrictions on bauxite mining [2]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices fell by over 2% last week, with the S&P 500 down 2.6%, the Dow Jones down 2.5%, and the Nasdaq down 2.5%[5] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively[5] Key Economic Events - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, citing slow negotiation progress and criticizing EU automotive policies[4] - US existing home sales fell by 0.5% in April, with a seasonally adjusted annualized sales total of 4 million units, down 2% year-on-year[4] - The US Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.3, marking a three-month high[4] Corporate Highlights - Oracle plans to invest approximately $40 billion in Nvidia chips to support its new data center for OpenAI[1] - Baidu reported Q1 2025 revenue of 32.5 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with core revenue up 7%[9] - BYD's electric vehicle sales in Europe surpassed Tesla for the first time, and the company will enter the Hang Seng Tech Index next month[12] Risks - The report highlights risks including macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and currency volatility[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires is negative for rubber, while supply has support, terminal demand is fair, and inventory has slightly decreased [8][87] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,530 to 15,115 yuan/ton, with a slight overall decline. As of May 23, 2025, it closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, down 370 points or 2.48% for the week [6][12] 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of May 23, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,350 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of May 23, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton wider than last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared to last week [27][31] 3.2 Important Market Information - The US manufacturing PMI in May rose to a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI reached a two - month high. The new order growth rate was the fastest in more than a year, but manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, and his tax - cut bill passed the House and will go to the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade, cut at least 1.5 trillion US dollars in spending, and raise the US debt ceiling by 4 trillion US dollars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [32] - The Australian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, but the service PMI fell sharply. The market increased bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year. The UK's CPI rose in April, and the market reduced bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates. The Indonesian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% [33][35] - China's economy grew steadily in April. The industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail all increased year - on - year. The LPR was lowered, and banks cut deposit interest rates. The prices of new houses in first - and second - tier cities were flat in April, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly. China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year in April, and the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in May are expected to increase [36][37] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in Indonesia's main rubber - producing areas increased slightly from the previous month, while that in Vietnam decreased slightly. The production in Malaysia and India decreased significantly, and that in Thailand decreased sharply. China's main producing areas started tapping gradually. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [48][51][54] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of May 22, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.22%, down 0.11% from last week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.96%, down 0.13% from last week [57] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%. The monthly sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 87,667 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [61][64][69] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [72][78] 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,270 tons, 230 tons less than last week. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons or 0.96%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons [85] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Recently, rainfall has affected tapping work, leading to firm raw material prices and cost support for rubber prices. In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [86] - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises slightly declined. Finished product inventories continued to accumulate and were at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales increased slightly year - on - year in April but decreased slightly month - on - month. The heavy - duty truck sales increased year - on - year in April but decreased month - on - month, and the cumulative sales from January to April decreased slightly year - on - year. The trade - in policy boosted terminal consumption. China's automobile and rubber tire exports increased in 2025 [86] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [86] 3.7后市展望 - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in main producing areas, tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import situation, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][87] 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate weakly this week. It is recommended to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly on dips, paying attention to the support around the 14,000 integer mark [10][88]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a strong fluctuation with slight increases in government bond futures and a majority of interbank bond yields declining by 1 basis point, indicating a mixed outlook for the market in the short term [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37% to 119.320, the 10-year main contract up by 0.13% to 108.605, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.04% to 105.735 [2]. - The interbank major interest rate bond yields mostly decreased slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.75 basis points to 1.67% [2]. Fund Flow - The central bank conducted a 1350 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on May 19, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 920 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor short-term rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 11.7 basis points to 1.537% and the 7-day rate up by 1.7 basis points to 1.562% [5]. Economic Indicators - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of 5.2% [7]. - Fixed asset investment from January to April grew by 4%, slightly below the expected 4.3% [7]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas was reported at 5.1%, down from 5.2% in the previous period [7]. Institutional Views - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the short-term upper and lower limits for the 10-year government bond yield are between 1.6% and 1.8%, recommending a strategy of increasing holdings during adjustments [8]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income indicates that the bond market has shifted from a bearish to a neutral stance, with a preference for long-duration strategies, particularly in 30-year government bonds [8].

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data for April on May 19, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods [2] - CICC estimates that the fiscal subsidy scale for the old-for-new policy exceeded 38 billion yuan in April, maintaining a strong impact on retail sales growth at 3.3 percentage points [2] - The retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to grow by 14.4% year-on-year in April, with overall retail sales growth projected at around 5.5% [2] Fuel Price Adjustment - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is set for May 19 at 24:00, with a projected decrease of 240 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices [3] - Analysts predict a drop of approximately 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.2 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel, resulting in savings of about 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [3] LPR Announcement - The latest 1-year and 5-year LPR will be announced on May 20, with the previous rates at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively [4] - Following a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate, the LPR is expected to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [4] Stock Unlocking - A total of 40 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from May 19 to May 23, with 8 stocks having a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan [6] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are: SiTeWei-W (7.007 billion yuan), XinDian Software (4.865 billion yuan), and YanTian Port (4.459 billion yuan) [6][7] New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks will be issued next week: Guqi Wool Materials on May 19 and Zhongce Rubber on May 23 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report is bearish as the significant increase in production led to higher - than - expected ending stocks [21]. - The USDA May supply - demand report is bullish for soybeans as the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks are lower than expected [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 07 (BMD) was 3846.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.61% and an overnight decline of 0.41% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of currency indices including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are also given. For instance, the US dollar index was 100.79, with a decline of 0.25% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2505 in East China was 8510, with a basis of 460 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions like the US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina are listed. For example, the CNF premium in Brazil was 133 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 444 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 20 - 24) for major US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - median precipitation and generally lower temperatures. The weekend in the US Midwest will be dry, and more rainfall may occur next week. Different weather conditions are detailed for the western and eastern regions [3][5]. - Three institutions (AmSpec, ITS, SGS) reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month, with growth rates of 14.21%, 6.63%, and 19.22% respectively [6][7]. - RHB analysts believe that Indonesia's recent increase in the export special tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy [7]. - As of the week ending May 13, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 15% the previous week and 9% last year [7]. - As of the week ending May 8, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales met expectations, with specific changes in export sales, shipments, and new sales for different market years [8][9][10]. - The NOPA reported that US soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, and soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels [10]. - The US EPA has submitted a proposed rule to the White House to review the amount of biofuels that refineries must blend into their fuels starting in 2026 [10]. - CONAB predicted that the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production would reach 168.3418 million tons, with an increase of 14% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Anec predicted that from May 11 - 17, Brazilian soybean exports would be 3.9898 million tons, and soybean meal exports would be 627,400 tons [12]. - Ukrainian producers expect soybean prices to rise at the end of May, and they may reduce the sowing area by 12% this year [12]. - The predicted Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is 6.2 million tons, and future precipitation conditions need to be closely monitored [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more - than - one - week high due to the increase in capesize vessel freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 70% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On May 15, the trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased by 1.13% [15]. - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year, with changes in different types of feed and raw material usage ratios [15]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the price of eggs increased by 1.5% [16]. International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and there are different probabilities for rate cuts in July [17]. - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, industrial output, retail sales, PPI, etc. are presented, with some data meeting expectations and others deviating [17][18]. - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, and the supply growth forecast is raised [18]. Domestic News - On May 15, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was raised, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [20]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report shows that production, exports, imports, and consumption changed, and the ending stocks increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, higher than expected [21]. - The USDA May soybean report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean exports, production, and ending stocks, with the ending stocks lower than expected [22]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 15, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 28.657 billion yuan, including 4.803 billion yuan from commodity futures and 23.853 billion yuan from stock index futures. Different sectors of commodity futures also had varying capital flows [24][25]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年05月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区减产集中，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格继续探涨，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 16 日 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 736. 5 | -0.5 | -0. 07% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(于) | 持仓变动(手) | | ...

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