Market Overview - The market is expected to continue rising in August, driven by liquidity conditions[5] - As of July 28, the Wind All A Index surpassed its peak from October 8 of the previous year, indicating a bullish market sentiment[5] Market Drivers - The upward market movement is attributed to ample incremental capital and improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in cyclical stocks[7] - Recent trends show a significant increase in public and retail investor participation, with new fund issuance in June reaching nearly 30 billion, the highest monthly level since 2022[8] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on large financial and technology assets, highlighting the potential for banks and insurance companies to benefit from reduced economic risks and lower liability costs[9] - Technology assets are suggested for contrarian trading due to their low trading congestion, with historical performance showing a strong correlation with trading dynamics[9] Key Stock Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF, Fuda Co., Su Neng Co. (automotive), Zhujiang Co., Core International (trading), Wanhua Chemical, Dongcai Technology (chemicals), and others[17] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors like steel and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to perform well due to demand recovery and policy support[9] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns and insufficient policy support, which could impact market performance[18]

Core Viewpoint - The market's optimistic sentiment has rapidly cooled, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal market will maintain high volatility [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The main coking coal contract surged to 1288.5 points last Friday night but then experienced a sharp decline, with all contracts hitting the limit down during the afternoon session [1] - Following the trading limit adjustment by the Dalian Commodity Exchange for the JM2509 coking coal contract, the previously overheated bullish sentiment in the market has significantly diminished [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Despite the sharp price drop, the fundamentals indicate that the dual coking coal inventory is still decreasing, suggesting that a significant price decline is unlikely under current conditions [1] - The influence of news and policy changes on market sentiment is currently stronger than the actual fundamental situation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term, with existing supply and demand fundamentals providing some support [1] - Market participants are advised to manage risks carefully, as macro policy stimuli may lead to significant fluctuations in sentiment [1]

研究报告 纯碱周报 "反内卷"强势 VS"基本面"弱势 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1226-1457 元/吨之间运行， 价格走强。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 28 日星期一 供给方面产量、产能利用率双降，截止到 2025 年 7 月 24 日， 国内纯碱产量 72.38 万吨，环比减少 0.94 万吨，跌幅 1.28%。其 中，轻质碱产量 31.49 万吨，环比减少 0.36 万吨。重质碱产量 40.89 万吨，环比减少 0.58 万吨。纯碱综合产能利用率 83.02%， 上周 84.10%，环比下降 1.08%。 库存情况纯碱库存呈现下降，截止到 2025 年 7 月 24 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 186.46 万吨，较上周一下降 1.96 万吨，跌幅 1.04%。 【后市展望】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].

Group 1 - The manganese silicon futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 6000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 6142.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.30% increase [1] - The overall supply and demand relationship for manganese silicon is stable, influenced by the first round of coke price increases and expectations for a second round, providing cost support [1] - The inventory of silicon iron has decreased by 9.54% in a week, indicating a healthy supply-demand relationship that drives prices [1] Group 2 - The basic fundamentals for manganese silicon have improved this week, with both supply and demand increasing, leading to a slight reduction in inventory [2] - Current market conditions suggest that while there is cost support from manganese ore prices and electricity prices in major production areas, the overall support for current prices is limited [2] - There are expectations for a price decline in manganese ore, which may lead to downward pressure on manganese silicon prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1]. 2. Report's Core View The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol, but believes that short - term policy expectations outweigh the impact of fundamentals. It suggests investors to stay on the sidelines for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. Also, the high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises will likely lead to continued destocking, which will suppress the spot price in East China [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 increased from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 climbed from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buhootes Q5500 rose from 450 yuan/ton to 452.5 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 507.5 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase. The price of Datong Q5500 remained stable [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO and Yiquge remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88%, and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23%. The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73% [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2417 yuan/ton, closing at 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,252,918 lots and an open interest of 632,187 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The loading speed at the port is expected to improve in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong market sentiment with soda ash futures rising over 5% in the night session, driven by strong policy expectations and macroeconomic narratives [1] - Institutional analysis indicates that the current market sentiment is exuberant, suggesting a sustained strong price expectation for soda ash [1] - The article notes a commodity resonance rally, implying that various commodities are experiencing upward price movements in tandem with soda ash [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the ferroalloy futures market, particularly focusing on manganese silicon and silicon iron, during the first half of 2024, highlighting the driving factors behind these price movements and the subsequent market corrections. Group 1: Price Movements - Manganese silicon prices surged from a low of 6108 CNY/ton to a high of 9786 CNY/ton, marking a two-year peak due to supply disruptions caused by a cyclone affecting South32's operations [2] - Silicon iron prices increased from a minimum of 6402 CNY/ton to 8234 CNY/ton, with a significant daily limit increase at the end of May [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Supply shock from South32's disruption led to panic in the market, prompting smelters to stockpile, which created a positive feedback loop of rising costs and prices [4] - The release of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" in late May triggered market speculation reminiscent of the 2021 "dual control of energy consumption" policy, further boosting market sentiment [6] Group 3: Market Characteristics - Trading volumes for manganese silicon and silicon iron futures reached record highs, with 3.16 million and 2.27 million contracts traded in a single day, respectively, indicating significant market activity [12] - The futures market exhibited a premium over the spot market, encouraging alloy producers to increase output, resulting in a 15% month-on-month rise in manganese silicon production from April to May [13] - Despite the price increases, the actual manganese ore supply gap was limited, with only a 10% shortfall in total imports, indicating that the price surge was driven more by market sentiment than by fundamental supply-demand dynamics [14] Group 4: Market Correction - In June, regulatory measures such as position limits and increased transaction fees were introduced to curb excessive speculation [16] - The supply of manganese ore improved with increased arrivals from South Africa and Gabon, leading to a rise in port inventories to 6.5 million tons, a 20% year-on-year increase [17] - Demand weakened as steel mills reduced production due to losses, causing manganese silicon prices to decline sharply from their late May highs back to around 5900 CNY/ton by September [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts. It is recommended to wait and observe temporarily. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is room for the repair of inland downstream profits. The current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes port inventory accumulation likely, which will suppress spot prices in East China [1] Summary by Section 1. Price Information 1.1 Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on July 23, 2025, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.54%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2428 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.34%); MA09 was 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.87%) [1] 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.66%) to 2290 yuan/ton, while in Inner Mongolia, it rose by 47.5 yuan/ton (2.39%) to 2037.5 yuan/ton. In contrast, in Taicang, it decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) to 2410 yuan/ton [1] 1.3 Basis - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 34 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [1] 1.4 Upstream Costs - Some coal prices were stable, such as Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000, while Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 520 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Information - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 419.3 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit dropped by 128 yuan/ton (-36.28%) to 224.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (11.49%) to - 674.07 yuan/ton. Some downstream product profits, like MTBE and formaldehyde, remained unchanged, while acetic acid profit increased by 18.71 yuan/ton (6.68%) to 298.79 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information 3.1 Domestic Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2457 yuan/ton, closing at 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 866,930 lots, and open interest was 666,635 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing [1] 3.2 Foreign Information - In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The estimated loading speed at the port in mid - to - late July is expected to be higher than that in the early part of the month [1] 4. Trading Strategy - After a slight decline in MA the previous day and a rise to 2469 in the night session, considering the weak fundamental outlook and the greater impact of short - term policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and observe [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures continue to decline due to persistent oversupply expectations, with current operating capacity at historically high levels indicating a state of excess [1] Group 1 - The market is experiencing a significant oversupply situation, which is reflected in the ongoing decrease in aluminum oxide futures [1] - Institutional analysis suggests that after a substantial price increase driven by policy expectations, there is a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [1]