Gold Market - The U.S. GDP data for Q3 was reported at 4.3%, a significant increase from the previous value of 3.8%, but the actual growth rate is believed to be closer to 2% when excluding anomalies [1] - Wall Street is shifting focus from recession risks to concerns about economic overheating and rising inflation due to the strong GDP data [1] - Gold prices experienced a short-term decline but remain in an upward trend, with a historical high of $4525 reached [1] - Key support for gold is at $4445, while resistance is at $4545 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices are rising as the market weighs strong U.S. economic data against geopolitical risks from Venezuela and Ukraine [2] - Strong personal consumption expenditure data supports the outlook for future oil demand [2] - OPEC+ has no plans to increase production in Q1 2026, which, along with geopolitical risks and improving U.S. economic conditions, may drive oil prices higher [2] - Key support for oil is at $57.70, while resistance is at $59.20 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. GDP data of 4.3% exceeded market expectations, leading to a reduced probability of a Fed rate cut in January to 13% from 26% [3] - The Eurozone economy has shown unexpected resilience, leading to lowered expectations for a rate cut in March 2026 [3] - The market is currently in a downward trend, with a focus on the support level of 97.40 and resistance at 98.10 [3] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index closed with a small gain, approaching the upper line of a symmetrical triangle [4] - The market shows a short-term upward trend, but there is a potential for a technical pullback due to increased divergence from the 120-day moving average [4] - Key resistance is at 25700, while support is at 25350 [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have reached new highs, continuing an upward trend [5] - The price has broken through previous consolidation levels and is trading above the 60/120-day moving averages [5] - Key resistance for copper is at $5.60, while support is at $5.48 [5] Market Overview - The U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 4.3% in Q3, marking the fastest growth in two years [6] - Investors have reduced bets on a Fed rate cut next year, with the probability of a cut at the January 28 meeting estimated at only 17% [6] - President Trump stated that anyone opposing him will never hold the position of Fed Chair, indicating a desire for lower interest rates if the market performs well [6]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strength, with gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce, driven by strong economic data and ongoing interest in rate cuts from the U.S. President [2][6]. Economic Data - The U.S. GDP for Q3 grew significantly by 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years, primarily due to robust consumer spending [2][6]. - The PCE price index for the U.S. showed a year-on-year quarterly increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectations but higher than the previous value of 2.6%, which may suppress future rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [2][6]. Market Reactions - Following the strong GDP data, there was a temporary weakening in precious metals, but the market quickly recovered, with gold, silver, and copper all showing strength [2][6]. - The U.S. President has reiterated the desire for the next Federal Reserve Chair to consider rate cuts when the economy and markets are performing well, rather than preemptively acting due to inflation concerns [2][6]. Investment Implications - Given the resilient economic performance and potential for continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, alongside fluctuating geopolitical conditions, gold remains a significant asset allocation option [2][6].

这份数据远超3.2%的市场预期，令市场担心美联储在2026年初降息的可能性降低。芝加哥商品交易所 美联储观察工具的数据显示，报告发布后，联邦基金利率期货交易员略微增加了押注，认为美联储将在 明年1月和3月的议息会议上维持利率不变。 由于今年第一季度美国经济出现负增长，第四季度经济增长预计将因联邦政府"停摆"等因素明显放缓， 多家研究机构预计，2025年美国经济增速将为2%或更低水平。 Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示："交易量可能会比较清淡，但在年底之前， 阻力最小的路径仍然是上涨。"他称周二公布的GDP数据"非常出色"。 22V Research经济学家Peter Williams表示："这一略好于我们乐观基线预期的数据，在一定程度上削弱 了近期降息的理由。" 智通财经获悉，周二，在科技股上涨抵消了投资者对美国经济强劲增长可能导致降息推迟的担忧后，标 普500指数收涨0.5%至6909.79点，为连续第四个交易日上涨，创下历史收盘新高。 英伟达(NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)以及谷歌(GOOGL.US)等大型科技股的上涨抵消了医疗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Metal prices continue to be strong, while the profit - making effect of A - shares weakens. The strong US economic data boosts risk appetite, and the US dollar index weakens, supporting the rise of metal prices. The A - share market may maintain a wide - range weak shock in the short term [2][3]. - Precious metals, including gold, silver, and platinum, hit new highs. The upward trend in the short term is further strengthened, but risks need to be vigilant [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, driven by factors such as Trump's call for interest rate cuts, strong economic data, and the imbalance of global mining and metallurgy production capacity [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as the strengthening of US economic resilience, slightly lower end - of - year consumption, and expected inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina maintains a low level due to potential cost reduction and sufficient supply [10]. - Cast aluminum maintains a high - level shock in the short term under the game of cost and supply - demand factors [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the current domestic downstream consumption being divided and the short - term supply - demand contradiction being limited [12]. - Lead prices are expected to consolidate with limited upward and downward drivers due to the weak supply - demand situation at the end of the year [13]. - Tin prices face increased adjustment pressure due to the expected increase in supply and the call from the tin association for market rationality [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term, with supply contraction and relatively stable demand [15][16]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the game between macro - policy expectations and weak terminal reality, with a pattern of weak supply and demand [17]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be under shock pressure due to the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term due to the mixed long - and short - term factors in the market [19]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of South American weather changes on crops [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, affected by factors such as US economic data, Indonesian biofuel policies, and palm oil production and inventory changes [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: The initial value of the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the US in the third quarter was 4.3%, significantly exceeding expectations. The PCE price index rose to 2.8%. After the data release, the market's expectation of the first interest rate cut next year was postponed to June. The US stock market rose, the US dollar index weakened, and metal prices were strong. Gold exceeded $4,500 per ounce, silver exceeded $70 per ounce, and copper exceeded $12,000 per ton [2]. - Domestic: The central government emphasized the work of central state - owned enterprises, and the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference set goals for the real estate market in 2026. The A - share market rose slightly with heavy volume, but the profit - making effect was weak. The market may maintain a wide - range weak shock in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $4,510 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose more than 4% to a record high. Domestic platinum and palladium prices soared, and platinum futures hit the daily limit for two consecutive days. The price increase was driven by domestic funds, and the market sentiment was high, but risks need to be vigilant [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - Shanghai copper and LME copper continued to rise, with LME copper exceeding $12,000 per ton. Trump called for interest rate cuts, and the adjusted GDP growth rate in the US in the third quarter was 4.3%. The supply - demand imbalance in the global mining and metallurgy industry and the rise of precious metals drove copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum showed different trends. The US economic data strengthened the market's confidence in the economic resilience, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in January next year decreased. At the end of the year, consumption was slightly lower, and inventory was expected to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures price rose slightly, and the spot price fell. There were rumors that the bauxite price in Guinea would fall in the first quarter, and the supply of alumina remained abundant. The fundamentals were bearish, and the price maintained a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was flat. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the cost support was strengthened. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc and LME zinc fluctuated. The US economic growth in the third quarter was 4.3%, which hit the interest rate cut expectation. The domestic downstream consumption was divided, and the spot premium was slightly reduced. Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - Shanghai lead and LME lead fluctuated. At the end of the year, the number of market quotes decreased, and the downstream procurement was weak. The supply - demand situation was weak, and lead prices are expected to consolidate [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - Shanghai tin and LME tin fluctuated. The supply - side risks decreased, and the tin association called for market rationality. Tin prices face increased adjustment pressure [14]. 3.1.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply in Xinjiang was at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest was weak. The demand was relatively stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to maintain a shock in the short term [15][16]. 3.1.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference set goals for the real estate market in 2026. The steel market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [17]. 3.1.12 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted. The overseas supply was at a high level, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The steel mill's profit shrank, and the demand was weak. Iron ore prices are expected to be under shock pressure [18]. 3.1.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal was generally stable, and the profit of coke enterprises shrank after the third round of price cuts. The market was mixed with long - and short - term factors, and prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term [19]. 3.1.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. The US soybean export sales increased, and the expected output of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to the impact of South American weather changes on crops. The domestic supply was sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate [20][21]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Indonesia's biofuel quota in 2026 was basically the same as that in 2025. If the B50 plan is implemented, the demand for palm oil will increase significantly. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export demand improved. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [22][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on December 23, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc., in both domestic (SHFE) and international (LME) markets [24]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - The report presents detailed industry data for various metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., including prices, inventory changes, basis, and other indicators on December 23 and December 22 [25][28][30].

有色金属日报 2025-12-24 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币走强，美元指数偏弱，贵金属延续上涨，铜价创历史新高，昨日伦铜收涨 1.21%至 12055 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 94890 元/吨。LME 库存增加 825 至 158525 吨，注 ...

Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示："交易量可能会比较清淡，但在年底之前， 阻力最小的路径仍然是上涨。"他称周二公布的GDP数据"非常出色"。 22V Research经济学家Peter Williams表示："这一略好于我们乐观基线预期的数据，在一定程度上削弱 了近期降息的理由。" 周二，在科技股上涨抵消了投资者对美国经济强劲增长可能导致降息推迟的担忧后，标普500指数收涨 0.5%至6909.79点，为连续第四个交易日上涨，创下历史收盘新高。 英伟达(NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)以及谷歌(GOOGL.US)等大型科技股的上涨抵消了医疗保健和必需 消费品板块的疲软。不过，上涨范围较为狭窄，标普500等权重指数反而下跌了0.3%。以科技股为主的 纳斯达克100指数上涨0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数收涨0.2%。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)徘徊 在14以下。 数据显示，2025年第三季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度3.8%的增 速和市场预期的3.3%。美国商务部表示，第三季度经济增速加快主要 ...

上周，英国央行以微弱多数票将利率下调25个基点至3.75%，并表示"利率将逐步下调"。由九名成员组成的货币政策委员会（MPC）中有四名成员对降息持 反对意见，原因是工资增长前景乐观，这种情况可能导致通胀持续高于央行2%的目标。 尽管英国整体通胀率在过去两个月持续下降，年化通胀率从7月至9月期间的峰值3.8%降至3.2%，但仍远高于央行2%的目标。 在英国央行利率决议后的新闻发布会上，行长贝利保证通胀率有望在2026年上半年回到接近2%的目标水平。 据路透社报道，交易员预计英国央行将在明年上半年至少降息25个基点。 每日动态：英镑跑赢美元 英镑兑美元的强劲表现也受到美元走弱的推动。美元面临巨大的抛售压力，因为交易员确信美联储将在2026年至少降息两次。 由于市场预期英国央行将采取较为缓慢的货币宽松路径，英镑兑主要货币走高。 投资者预计英国央行将在2026年上半年至少降息一次。 周二的主要焦点将是美国第三季度GDP初值数据。 周二欧洲交易时段，英镑兑主要货币普遍走高，兑美元汇率重回近12周高点，接近1.3500。英镑上涨的原因是市场预期英国央行（BoE）将在2026年采取渐 进式货币宽松政策。 在12月10日央行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to be the biggest winners among global asset classes this year, with both reaching historical highs and showing significant year-to-date gains [2][9]. Price Performance - Spot silver surpassed $70 per ounce, while spot gold reached $4,490.88 per ounce, both setting new historical records [2]. - Year-to-date, gold has achieved its 50th new high with an increase of over 71%, while silver has surged by 140% [2]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also saw gains exceeding 2%, reaching historical highs [4]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for gold and precious metal stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares has seen collective upward movement [5]. - Other precious metals like platinum and palladium are also experiencing significant price increases, with platinum hitting a 17-year high and palladium reaching a three-year peak [6][7]. Supporting Factors - Geopolitical tensions have enhanced the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver [10]. - Increased expectations for interest rate cuts have provided support for precious metals, with recent comments from Federal Reserve officials highlighting potential economic risks if rates are not lowered [12]. - Central bank purchases and speculative inflows into silver are also contributing to the price increases, with global central banks accelerating "de-dollarization" and net gold purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [13][14]. Future Outlook - Market expectations suggest that gold and silver prices have not yet peaked, with forecasts indicating potential further increases [18]. - The World Gold Council anticipates a 5%-15% rise in gold prices next year, while major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS project significant price targets for gold by 2026 [19][20]. - Analysts believe that the foundation for a gold bull market remains intact, with silver potentially having greater upside due to its market dynamics and technical factors [21][23].

瑞达期货（002961）指出，钯金在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需 求端预期走弱，钯金市场正逐步由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动 的偏多情绪或给予价格一定支撑，钯金当前偏低的价格可能使其重新成为具备成本优势的选择。铂钯金 价格呈抛物线式上涨行情，基差修复需求可能加剧短期回调风险。 国泰君安期货表示，通过观察伦敦市场远月贴水、一个月期租赁利率等高频数据，目前没有观测到钯金 存在类似铂金的非常典型的现货流动性枯竭的问题，同时钯金ETF增持速度也有所放缓，料钯金在经历 了上周的快速上行后向上移动的速度有所放缓，但总体铂钯暂没有掉头迹象。尽管如此，我们仍然提示 注意高位宽幅波动风险。 12月23日，国内期市贵金属板块全线飘红。其中，钯期货主力合约开盘报512.00元/克，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至发稿，钯主力最高触及555.15元，下方探低512.00元，涨幅达7.30%附近。 目前来看，钯期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于钯后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中信建投（601066）期货认为，铂、钯期货的商品属性也在持续支撑价格上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a dynamic interplay between supply contraction expectations due to Indonesian policies and the reality of global oversupply, leading to price fluctuations driven by sentiment and news [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London nickel prices rose by 2.42%, closing at $15,260 per ton, an increase of $360 per ton, with a trading volume of 18,763 contracts [1]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai nickel futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract closing at 122,130 yuan per ton, up 2.82% [1]. - The LME reported a decrease in nickel inventory to 254,388 tons, down by 162 tons from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Shanghai nickel futures opened higher, with the main contract starting at 120,280 yuan per ton, up 1,500 yuan from the previous settlement [2]. - The market is influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, positive sentiment around AI stocks, and a holiday liquidity environment, contributing to a weaker dollar index and rising U.S. stock indices [2]. - The recent adjustments in Indonesian policies have injected a "policy premium" into nickel prices, despite ongoing capacity releases and inventory accumulation in the industry [3]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand for nickel is showing structural differentiation, with stainless steel facing challenges from weak real estate and low profits, while the new energy sector continues to grow but is experiencing competition between high-nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate technologies [3]. - The distribution of pressure across the industry chain is uneven, with upstream resource control facing policy risks, midstream profits being squeezed, and downstream maintaining low inventory levels [3]. Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term nickel prices are expected to remain strong, driven by sentiment and news, with an anticipated increase today [4]. - The medium to long-term direction of nickel prices will depend on the clarity of Indonesian policies and whether global demand can recover beyond expectations [4].