11月26日金价速报，国内品牌金店金价持稳，与昨日比基本没变化。其中，周生生黄金微涨1元/克，报 价1316元/克，成了今日的最高价金店；上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价1222元/克，还是最低价金店。今 日金店金价高低价差继续扩大，报94元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1315 元/克 0 平 元/克 0 平 周大福黄金价格 1312 元/克 0 平 六福黄金价格 1310 周六福黄金价格 1278 元/克 0 平 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年11月26日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1310 元/克 0 平 老凤祥黄金价格 1315 元/克 0 平 潮宏基黄金价格 1312 元/克 0 平 周生生黄金价格 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 1316 元/克 1 涨 菜百黄金价格 1280 1222 元/克 0 平 元/克 0 平 今日金店黄金价格稳定，铂金价格微跌，还是拿周生生黄金来说，今日铂金饰品价格下跌3元/克，报 624元/克。如需了解其他品牌铂金价格，欢迎留言，我们将及时汇总更新。 另外，今日黄金回收价格微涨1.1元/克。不同品牌回收价差较大，以 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251126 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：俄乌和谈进程提速，A 股迎来修复 海外方面，陆续补发的经济数据再度提振市场降息预期，美国 9 月零售环比仅增 0.2%， 显著弱于 8 月的 0.6%，在关税抬价和劳动力市场走软背景下，消费趋疲；9 月 PPI 环比回升 0.3%符合预期，能源涨 3.5%与食品涨 1.1%是主要贡献；ADP 周报显示过去四周美国私营部 门就业岗位周均减少 1.35 万，就业数据仍偏弱，12 月降息预期再度提高至 85%。美元指数 回落至 99.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4%，美股低开高走。泽连斯基称乌方已准备推进美方支 持的停战框架，并愿与特朗普协商分歧，要求欧洲同步参与，油价下跌超 1%，金价、铜价 上涨。今日关注 9 月耐用品订单以及初申失业金人数。 国内方面，A 股放量修复，两市近 4300 只个股收涨、成交额缩量至 1.74 万亿，双创板 块领涨，教育、通讯设备、贵金属等板块表现相对较优，目前地缘风险阶段性缓和、基本面 数据偏冷、12 月政策预期尚未发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong tech stocks has been puzzling, as companies like Alibaba and NIO reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, yet their stock prices declined [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Alibaba's revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 4.8% year-on-year to 247.8 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of 15% after excluding asset impacts [2]. - Adjusted EBITA for Alibaba fell by 77.6% to 9.1 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in Taobao's flash sales, although it still exceeded some analysts' expectations [2]. - The performance of Alibaba's cloud business, which grew by 34%, and its international business was noted as strong, contributing to the overall positive outlook despite profit declines [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The decline in stock prices post-earnings reports is attributed to profit-taking by investors, despite the overall positive performance of companies like Alibaba [3]. - There is a divergence in investor sentiment regarding tech stocks, with some focusing on revenue growth while others are concerned about profit declines [2][3]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic due to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to increased capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite the recent stock price declines, Alibaba and other tech stocks may maintain a long-term upward trend due to strong fundamentals [2]. - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with probabilities rising from below 40% to around 85%, is expected to positively impact market sentiment and investor risk appetite [5]. - The market is currently digesting the mixed signals from earnings reports, and a clearer direction may emerge as investors reassess their strategies [2][4].

美元指数震荡上行突破100关口，人民币却逆势刷新逾一年高位，全球汇市这一罕见现象背后的动力何 在？ 这种人民币与美元同步走强的局面在历史上颇为罕见。通常情况下，美元走强会给新兴市场货币带来压 力，但人民币却打破了这一惯例。 02 驱动因素：人民币何以逆势上扬 人民币缘何走出全面强势行情？对此，业内分析认为，这一方面得益于人民币相对非美货币在基本面和 资金流动方面的强势表现，另一方面也缘于中间价持续释放升值信号等。 波动加大的全球汇市里，人民币与美元"双强"格局成为一道特别的风景线。 近日，美元指数震荡上行，攀升至100关口上方。同一时间，人民币对美元展现出较强韧性，刷新逾1年 来高位，更对一篮子货币维持强势，接连创下7个月新高。 01 双强格局：全球汇市罕见景象 11月25日，人民币汇率刷新逾1年来高位，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双收复7.09关口。 衡量人民币对一篮子货币的三大人民币汇率指数则续刷2025年4月以来新高。 中国外汇交易中心数据显示，上周，三大人民币指数全线上扬。其中，CFETS人民币汇率指数报 98.22；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.66；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.60 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices both at home and abroad rose and then fell. Economic data strengthened the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global visible inventories are in a state of accumulation and close to recent high levels, which may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillation, with low volatility. Attention should be paid to the performance of overseas financial markets and internal and external inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased and short - term support for aluminum prices exists, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious. Considering the cost support, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for favorable factors, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US economic data shows mild inflation and a possible worsening employment situation, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and BC copper decreased. The downstream acceptance of high - priced copper has improved, and overall demand is slowly recovering. However, high inventories may restrict copper prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices all declined. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot of aluminum ingots was at par or at a discount. The processing fees of some aluminum products were stable or decreased. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, and the raw material support for the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain weakened. The inventory of stainless steel increased. Although the raw material end of the new energy industry chain is tight, the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is large, and one can consider bottom - fishing based on cost support [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 375 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2851 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5905 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts of SHFE lead decreased by 902 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3869 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.6 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 843 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 778 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 12 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons, and the registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 822 tons, while those of LME increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.7%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 29 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 209 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are given [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and is a senior precious metals researcher. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won many awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: He has a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: She has a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [47].

软商品日报 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.36%，报收 64.23 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.66%，报收 13645 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 486 手至 55.24 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是近期市场关注重点， | | | | 美联储降息预期反复，目前美联储 12 月降息 25BP 概率回升至 80%左右，2025-26 | | | | 年累计降息三次，每次 25BP 概率较大，降息预期回暖下，美棉价格重心略有回升。 | | | 棉花 | 国内市场方面，郑棉期价上行突破 13600 元/吨。我们认为，运费上调导致内地棉 | | | | 花成本抬升、新年度供需并非十分宽松的预期以及市场情绪的回暖是主要驱动因 | | | | 素。展望未来，我们仍需看到当前多空因素的交织，供应端的压力短期难以回避， | | | | 且仍将持续一段时间。但情绪的回暖、成本的支撑以及 12 月重要会议的预期均对 | ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面偏强震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 17 元/吨，涨幅为 0.55%，持仓减少 13.2 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2980 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.14 万吨。 | | | | 据 CME"美联储观察"预测，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 82.9%，较此前大幅提升，维持利率不 | | | | 变的概率为 17.1%。美联储降息预期再次升温，对市场情绪形成较强提振。近期钢厂亏损面不断扩大，上 | | | | 周 247 家钢厂盈利率仅为 37.66%，已降至去年 10 月以来的最低水平。钢厂减产检修增多，成材产量有所 | | | | 回落，对缓解阶段供应压力起到积极影响。不过当前市场已转入消费淡季，市场对于后期 ...

周三（11月26日）亚盘时段，现货黄金延续隔夜反弹表现强势，目前暂交投于4163美元附近。周二金价持稳于每盎司4130美元附近，尽管受到了美国经济数 据疲软和美联储降息预期升温的双重影响，周二盘中一度触及4159.15美元的高点，但整体走势平稳，未能进一步突破，临近美国感恩节假期，市场整体交 投受限。当然，弱于预期的零售销售数据、顽固的通胀压力，以及美联储官员的鸽派言论，都在悄然推动黄金价格的潜在上行空间。 美国国债收益率连续第四个交易日下跌，周二10年期国债收益率触及4%的近一个月低点，两年期收益率也跌至3.461%的10月24日以来最低。这反映出债市 对美联储鸽派转向的强烈预期，收益率曲线趋陡，两年/十年期收益率差从53个基点扩大至54个基点。五年期公债标售需求疲软，得标利率为3.562%，投资 者要求小幅溢价，这部分归因于哈西特消息推动的涨势延续。美元指数周二下跌0.5%至99.746，受经济数据和美联储鸽派言论拖累。股市则延续涨势，道琼 斯工业指数上涨1.43%至47112.45点，标普500指数涨0.91%至6765.89点，纳斯达克指数涨0.67%至23,025.59点。 美国经济的最新指标显示出 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - A-shares lack a clear upward trend due to a relatively vacuum macro environment, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be digested through index fluctuations, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Market sentiment is volatile, leading to price fluctuations in various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Industry Stock Index - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for further upward movement [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: High - level fluctuations are expected due to limited industrial driving forces and repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Prices will fluctuate around the cost line, and attention should be paid to ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to short - term repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals, but short - term mine premiums are stable. With planned production cuts in Indonesian intermediate products and slightly improved macro conditions, nickel prices have a short - term repair expectation. The medium - to - long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and social inventories are increasing. Steel mill production cuts in November are limited. Futures prices will fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. Consider light - position participation in long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategies and look for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term supply has not recovered, and unexpected risks have increased, leading to stronger prices. However, due to existing demand pressure, caution is needed when chasing high prices. The medium - to - long - term outlook is positive, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1]. Precious Metals - With the probability of a December interest rate cut rising again and the news of the Ukraine - Russia peace agreement, precious metals are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. New Energy - related Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, while southwest production is weaker than in previous years. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly reducing production. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and terminal installation is increasing in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are fluctuating, and market sentiment has faded due to the long - awaited non - implementation of anti - involution policies [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel Products - **Rebar**: Although the valuation is low, the price increase is limited due to the off - season and a short - term macro vacuum. Consider participating in the virtual value accumulation strategy [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract has upward potential. The basis is acceptable, and consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage or using option strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Direct demand is okay with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. Coking Products - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Adopt a short - term strategy for unilateral trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash out hedging short positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil**: The rumor of the US delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel raw material subsidies is refuted, which is bullish for US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic high - pressure crushing may lead to a stable - to - weak basis, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of new cotton, but there is no clear upward driver. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply is tight, leading to a price rebound. However, selling pressure is postponed, so be cautious about being bullish and pay attention to farmers' selling and logistics [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US. If there are no significant weather problems, the market will gradually turn to trading the South American new - crop harvest pressure from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. Demand recovery needs to be verified, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation is weak but has been priced in. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pig**: Spot prices are stable, but there is still room for capacity release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US is increasing sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in the short - term, with the probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan construction demand being falsified, and sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: Raw material cost support is strong, the basis is low, and intermediate inventories may increase [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price of butadiene has limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a positive outlook. However, high inventory restricts price increases, and the synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene prices support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Follows the decline of crude oil prices, with slightly stronger cost support from rising coal prices, but new device production expectations suppress price increases [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Follows cost fluctuations closely [1]. - **Styrene**: Asian benzene prices are weak, and US pure benzene prices are rising. The price will fluctuate [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, with cost - end support [1]. - **PP**: High supply pressure, weak downstream demand improvement, and strong cost support [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and orders are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: There are issues such as delivery schedules, overhauls, and inventory pressures. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **PG**: Geopolitical and tariff relations are easing, and the market is in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices and the decline of far - month spreads [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: December price increases are lower than expected, and the peak - season price increase expectation has been priced in early. The monthly shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. There are also differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan increase (0.15%) month - on - month. M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, down 0.20% (- 2.38%) month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% (- 1.61%) month - on - month [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.39 (- 0.39%) day - on - day. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0944, down 0.012 (- 0.16%) day - on - day. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, down 0.01 (- 0.97%) day - on - day. DR007 was 1.45, down 0.02 (- 1.10%) day - on - day. R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (- 1.24%) day - on - day. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.01 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day [10]. 2. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - **Macro Policy**: On October 27, the central bank restarted open - market Treasury bond trading operations. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached three consensuses. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, while retaining the 10% tariff [1]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Market Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.22 yuan, and 115.16 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of 0.01%, 0.00%, - 0.08%, and - 0.33% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.056 yuan, - 0.066 yuan, - 0.088 yuan, and - 0.025 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation (January - October 2025)**: General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to the lack of follow - up force from the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first half of the year and the weakening of infrastructure expenditures [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, with strong government bond issuance and weak corporate and household financing demand. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.433%, 1.540%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation - **Inter - period Spreads of Treasury Bond Futures**: The report mentions various inter - period spreads of Treasury bond futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [29][33] - **Implied Yields and Basis Spreads**: It provides information on the implied yields and basis spreads of different - term Treasury bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [36][48][55][62]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the funding rate [36][37]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: It presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TF main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [48]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the T main contract's IRR and the funding rate [55]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are presented [57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TL main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [62][65]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [68]. Strategies - **Single - sided Strategy**: With the decline in repurchase rates, Treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in basis spreads [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].