Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the weekly trends of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, presenting the latest logic changes, supply - demand situations, and price trends for each metal [1] Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment**: Both domestic and foreign prices are oscillating, with a rigid support at the LME average price. The market is trading the probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the probability has rapidly increased [1] - **Domestic supply - demand**: The long - term negotiation of domestic copper concentrate processing fees is highly concerned. The spot import copper concentrate index is below $10. Domestic refined copper output in November is expected to decline month - on - month. In October, refined copper exports increased to 6.59 tons, and scrap copper imports reached 19.66 tons, with a cumulative supply increase of 1.99% in the first ten months. The output of major household appliances in October decreased month - on - month, and the market is watching the power - end orders. The domestic spot copper price passively follows the futures price, and there is a certain bullish sentiment in the spot market. The SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 tons to 18.06 tons [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport is expected to restart the production of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine before July 2026, with the 2026 production expected to be the same as in 2025. The market is concerned about the restrictions on scrap copper exports. Affected by UK tariffs, European scrap copper has flowed to the Americas, and the COMEX copper inventory has reached a record high of nearly 37 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Last week, the "head - and - shoulders" pattern of Shanghai copper was supported at a key position, and trading became oscillating again. The stop - loss position of previous short positions was lowered to 86,500 yuan, using the 11 - 10 - day moving average as the strength - weakness boundary [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price in Guinea is dropping towards $70, with an expected increase in ore supply. The domestic operating alumina production capacity is 9.61 million tons. Some enterprise overhauls or technological upgrades have short - term impacts, and there is no long - term production reduction. The alumina market is in significant oversupply, and the spot index is approaching the cash - loss level. Low - cost enterprises still have profits, and the price is weakly moving towards the support level of 2,000 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - **Supply**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable above 4 million tons. The first - phase 80 electrolytic cells of Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase project are gradually being put into production, and a 30,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of SPIC is planned to start production at the end of the year [1] - **Demand**: The SMM shows that the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remains at 62%. In October, aluminum product exports decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; aluminum product exports decreased by 24,000 tons month - on - month to 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - **Inventory and spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 33,000 tons to 613,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 16,000 tons to 130,000 tons. The inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China have slightly narrowed, and the processing fee of South China aluminum rods has rebounded to 300 - 100 yuan [1] - **Price trend**: In the short term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market risk preference is suppressed. The non - ferrous metals market has reduced positions and prices have declined. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. After the price decline, downstream enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, with rigid demand but few highlights. The Shanghai aluminum price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short - term upward trend has turned to oscillation, with a possible continued adjustment and support at around 21,100 yuan [1] Zinc - **Price trend**: The zinc price is weakly adjusting, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed [1] - **Spot and supply**: Under extreme domestic - foreign spreads, the export of zinc in November is expected to increase. The zinc inventory has increased to 47,325 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium is still at $140/ton. As the weather turns cold, domestic northern mines are gradually shutting down, and the supply of ore is further tightened. The TC of domestic and foreign mines is declining. The zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. The SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 151,000 tons. The split structure of domestic and foreign inventories is gradually being repaired, the import - ore smelting profit has improved, and domestic smelters' acceptance of imported ore has increased. Due to the high sulfuric acid price of 980 yuan/ton, the production - reduction expectation of domestic smelters in December is not strong, and the supply - reduction pressure of zinc ingots is not significantly weakened [1] - **Consumption**: The export of galvanized products is bright. Domestically, due to the weak real estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, and the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, the expected consumption increment is insufficient. As the northern weather turns cold, the demand enters the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious about future orders [1] - **Price trend**: Supported by smelting costs, with good external demand but weak domestic demand, be vigilant about the rapid change of capital sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Price trend**: The LME lead has a high inventory, the domestic supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and long - position holders are leaving the market. Both domestic and foreign prices have dropped sharply, with the LME lead falling 3.73% and the Shanghai lead falling 1.91% last week. The import window for lead has opened [1] - **Spot and supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 282,000 tons. The supply of domestic lead concentrate is tight, with the imported ore TC at - 100 to - 90 dollars/dry ton and the domestic PB50 lead concentrate at 200 - 100 yuan/metal ton. The SMM lead social inventory has decreased to 37,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory of recycled lead enterprises has decreased to 2,400 tons, the lowest since 2021. There are both overhauls and restarts in primary and recycled lead smelters. In the short term, the supply of recycled lead is slightly tight, and the price difference between refined and recycled lead has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 lead's discount to the near - month contract has narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. The import window opened intermittently in November, and the overseas replenishment is expected to reach the October level. Pay attention to the production dynamics of recycled smelters after profit pressure [1] - **Consumption**: From January to October, the cumulative export of lead - acid batteries was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Affected by tariffs and the improvement of overseas battery supply capacity, there is no expected increment in battery exports at the end of the year. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, the terminal consumption of batteries has not improved significantly, and different battery production enterprises have different order performances. Enterprises produce according to sales. The finished - product inventory of battery enterprises is 15 - 17 days, and the raw - material inventory is 3 - 1 days. Domestic consumption lacks growth expectations but has rigid demand [1] - **Price trend**: There is a game between cost and consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: The Shanghai nickel price is oscillating downward, with dull trading and increasing positions; the Shanghai stainless - steel price is also declining, with decreasing trading volume [1] - **Demand**: In the stainless - steel spot market, the nickel premium is 500 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 250 yuan. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the high - nickel ferrochrome price is 89 yuan/nickel point. The support brought by the previous price rebound is weakening, and the overall price of the industrial chain is under pressure. A large stainless - steel manufacturer has announced the procurement prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome, weakening the cost support, and the spot price is difficult to change the weak situation [1] - **Spot and supply**: The Jinchuan premium is 4,350 yuan. The pure nickel inventory has decreased by 900 tons to 52,300 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory has increased by 700 tons to 30,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons to 940,000 tons [1] - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai nickel market will reduce inventory, but short - selling is the main strategy [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The domestic and foreign tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The Shanghai tin market has reduced positions, but the enthusiasm of long - term funds for trading is still high. Pay attention to the situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo again, and the Shanghai tin price has repeatedly tested 295,000 yuan [1] - **Supply**: In October, the physical volume of domestic tin concentrate imports was at a high - low level, with the main importing countries contributing to the increment. The situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is tense, and a landslide in a tin mine has caused heavy casualties among manual miners, but there is no news about Alpha Tin's production and sales [1] - **Consumption**: There are few domestic highlights. The household appliance output in October decreased month - on - month, and the consumer electronics market is average. The SMM social inventory has increased by 211 tons to 2,050 tons, the LME inventory is 3,085 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium has expanded to $114. The domestic and foreign inventories are lower than the same period in the previous two years, and the situation is relatively neutral [1] - **Price trend**: Continuously track the news from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the previous high - position short positions stop - loss at 295,000 yuan, short - selling is the main strategy, and out - of - the - money call options can be used to hedge risks [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures had a strong start at the beginning of the week and a weak end at the weekend, with active trading and significant capital movement [1] - **Spot**: The Shanghai lithium carbonate spot price has continued to rise, reaching 92,000 yuan. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton. Lithium salt factories are operating at a high - capacity utilization rate, and overseas mines are raising prices and frequently releasing goods [1] - **Demand**: Downstream material factories are actively producing, with both supply and demand booming. The production plans of battery and cathode - material enterprises in November are continuously improving, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decrease [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 118,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 2,170 tons to 26,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 3,300 tons to 49,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 3,150 tons to 48,000 tons. The sentiment in the intermediate link has recovered, and the spot market has certain support. The latest price of Australian mines is $1,130, and the mine - end price remains strong [1] - **Price trend**: The futures price is oscillating violently at a high level, with large market differences, and risk control should be the priority [1] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Last week, the "anti - involution" measure of joint production reduction by the organic silicon industry boosted the market sentiment. The price broke through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton but failed to maintain, and then fell back to around 9,000 yuan/ton to oscillate [1] - **Supply - demand**: The weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is stable at 8% (unchanged month - on - month), and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are also unchanged month - on - month. Sichuan will enter the dry - water period at the end of November, and the operating rate may decline. The domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from October (affected by seasonal shutdowns), and the production in December is expected to decline slightly [1] - **Demand**: The domestic organic silicon printing price has increased to 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of about 850 yuan/ton. The actual - controller meeting of downstream factories has reached a consensus on production reduction, which will be implemented on December 1, and it is expected to reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 400 tons per month [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM industrial silicon rod and powder inventory is 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary warehouses is 129,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and the inventory in bonded warehouses is 419,000 tons (unchanged) [1] - **Summary**: The expected production reduction in the organic silicon industry is expected to have a limited impact on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon. In the short term, the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend. Track the organic silicon price dynamics, and the downstream price - fixing repair may further drive market fluctuations [1] Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon price has remained stable [1] - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors, the polysilicon industry's production plan in November has decreased by 14,000 tons compared to October, and there is an expected downward adjustment in December. After the overseas demand recedes, the domestic demand for silicon wafers has also declined, and the intensified industry competition has put pressure on the external procurement demand for silicon wafers [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM data shows that the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 259,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Currently, the prices and production plans of downstream silicon wafers and battery wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain are continuously weakening. Although the polysilicon industry itself is showing a month - on - month production - reduction trend, the actual effect of the marginal improvement in supply - demand is limited. In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment on the one hand and its own fundamentals on the other hand, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜增仓上行明显，主力期价站上 8.65 万。宏观层面，上周 五纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表了被市场解读为"鸽派"的讲话，昨 日美联储理事沃勒的讲话也偏鸽，市场降息预期持续升温，12 月降 息概率上升至 80%以上，利好铜价。产业上，内外电解铜库存分化， 海外边际累库，国内边际去库。短期铜价增仓上行，预计维持强 势。 沪铝 今日沪铝早盘增仓上行，随后高位整理，持仓量持续下降。宏观 层面，美联储降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing significant volatility, with a focus on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data releases, including retail sales, producer price index, consumer confidence index, and private sector employment report [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Data - Key U.S. macroeconomic data to be released includes September retail sales and producer price index, November consumer confidence index, and weekly private sector employment report [1]. - The market is awaiting these data releases, which are expected to influence trading decisions [3]. Group 2: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar remains stable against major currencies, with the dollar index hovering above 100.00 after a flat close on Monday [3]. - Despite a rise in risk appetite and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, the dollar is not showing significant weakness as investors await data [3]. - The New Zealand dollar is under pressure, trading near 0.5600, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [3]. - The euro is trading in a sideways pattern above 1.1500, with the European Central Bank set to release a financial stability assessment report [3]. - The British pound is also trading narrowly around 1.3100, with investors closely monitoring the upcoming autumn budget announcement [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.6% on Monday, contributing to a strong close for major U.S. stock indices, although U.S. stock futures saw a slight decline of about 0.1% in the European morning session [3]. - Gold prices were boosted by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, closing above $4100 with a daily increase of over 1.5% [3]. - XAU/USD is maintaining a volatile pattern, facing slight pressure below $4150 during the European session [3].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a mixed trend, with the dollar maintaining a narrow range ahead of key U.S. data releases, while gold remains supported by Fed policy signals and geopolitical tensions [1][4] - The upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including PPI, retail sales, consumer confidence, and employment indicators, will strengthen market judgments regarding the Fed's December policy path [5] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East, continue to drive safe-haven demand for gold [3][5] Group 2 - Fed officials have recently communicated a more dovish stance, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to approximately 80% [2] - The delay in the release of the November employment report has led to discussions about the potential postponement of the Fed's meeting, impacting policy expectations and market volatility [2][5] - Gold prices have strengthened in the context of rising rate cut expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions, maintaining a high trading range near $4150 [3][4]

【基本面消息】 数据显示，11月25日上海黄金现货价格报价943.15元/克，相较于期货主力价格（946.50元/克）贴水3.35 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 11月25日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 946.50 | 1.48% | 299689 | 181169 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 首先，美联储年内降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避险情绪升温。美国债务 膨胀、去美元化、地缘冲突再加剧以及中美贸易摩擦、经济格局重塑等弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略 配置价值。 同时，央行购金是人民币国际化的必经之路。从长期交易策略来看，伴随着美元信用体系受损、全球货 币体系重构以及全球资产重估，非美资产相对占优，黄金仍将是长期的资产配置品种。 短期来看，美联储近期发表鹰派言论，市场对12月的降息预期下降至四成，且市场炒作AI泡沫，短期 流动性收紧，金价短线回调。 【机构观点】 广州期货：CME美联储观察模型显示，由外盘联邦基金利率期货价格反推的12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed trend ahead of key U.S. economic data releases, with the dollar stabilizing and gold supported by a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Data - Investors are focused on the upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including September retail sales, producer price index (PPI), November consumer confidence index, and weekly private sector employment data [1][6]. - The delay in key employment data has sparked discussions about potentially postponing the Federal Reserve's December meeting [4][7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dovish Tone - Several Federal Reserve officials have reinforced a dovish outlook, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to approximately 80% according to CME FedWatch [3][4]. - The dovish signals from the Fed have contributed to a pause in the dollar's recent strength and have supported gold's upward momentum [3][5]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have remained elevated, trading just below $4,150, supported by the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties, including recent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East [5][6]. - The combination of safe-haven demand and policy expectations continues to bolster gold's position in the market [5][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Volatility - The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's meeting due to delayed data increases short-term policy sensitivity and market volatility [4][6][7]. - Geopolitical tensions remain a significant variable affecting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

Core Insights - The report suggests that short-term risk factors for the Hong Kong stock market are decreasing, but a confirmation of the rebound requires catalysts. The current position is considered attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is fluctuating, which has led to a relatively weak performance in overseas markets represented by US stocks. An increase in rate cut expectations could benefit the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December may refocus market attention on policy, which has not yet been priced in [1] - The narrative surrounding the AI technology bubble in US markets has weakened, leading to significant corrections in Hong Kong's tech sector, which now presents an attractive allocation opportunity [1] - Despite short-term macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remaining unresolved, a balanced allocation strategy is still recommended, with relative strength in dividends [1] Market Performance - In the past week, both developed and emerging markets experienced declines, with emerging markets down 3.7% and developed markets down 2.3% [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 7.2%, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 5.1%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect dropped by 5.3%. All sectors showed varying degrees of decline, with southbound funds primarily flowing into non-essential consumer sectors and out of the energy sector [4] US Market Analysis - The Nasdaq Composite led the decline in US markets with a drop of 2.7%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell by 1.9%. The healthcare and consumer staples sectors outperformed, while energy and information technology sectors lagged [1] - The non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with job additions significantly exceeding expectations at 119,000, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. Average hourly wages increased by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1][2] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of profits from AI projects have resurfaced, despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, leading to a broader risk-off sentiment in the tech sector [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance remains generally hawkish, with most members expressing reservations about a December rate cut. However, Vice Chairman Williams indicated some room for a rate cut due to increased downside risks to employment and alleviated inflationary pressures, causing the probability of a December rate cut to rise from 33% to 60% [2][3] Investment Trends - The report highlights a significant net inflow into global stock ETFs amounting to $101.61 billion, with the US stock ETFs seeing the largest inflow of $26.71 billion. Emerging markets, particularly Chinese stock ETFs, also saw notable inflows [7][39] - In terms of sector performance, the top three sectors for net inflows were materials, technology, and healthcare, while financials, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors experienced the largest outflows [8][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For electrolytic nickel, the strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][5][94] - For stainless steel, the strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][120][121] 2. Core Views - The nickel market has a loose fundamental situation, high inventory, but low valuation. With fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [5][94] - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, a persistently loose fundamental situation, and weakening cost support. It is expected to remain weak [6][121] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 3.21%. Trading volume reached 566,800 lots (+116,200), and open interest reached 160,700 lots (+48,500). LME nickel fell 1.82% weekly, with trading volume of 43,100 lots (+2,000) [10] - The basis premium was 2,220 yuan/ton [12] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores each dropped by 1 dollar/wet ton, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton [16] - In October, the Philippines' nickel - ore exports rebounded. China's nickel - ore imports reached 4.68 million tons, a 23.4% month - on - month decrease and an 11.0% year - on - year increase [22] - Last week, the nickel - ore arrival volume decreased by 378,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 250,000 wet tons [24] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 13 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and the premium to scrap stainless steel both narrowed [29] - In October, China's nickel - iron imports were 905,000 tons, a 16.6% month - on - month decrease and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. November imports are expected to remain stable [32] - BF profit contracted, and the operating rate declined. RKEF losses widened, but the operating rate rose [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [40] - Nickel - iron inventory accumulated [42] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [46] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed [50] - In October, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [54] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [59] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [63] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The decline in pure - nickel prices was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small [68] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [73] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [75] - In October, new - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [81] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories decreased [82] - Last week, the pure - nickel inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged, and the total social inventory in six regions decreased by 855 tons [87] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, high - grade nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte [93] 2.1 Stainless - Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless - steel futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.97%. The basis shrank to 1,040 yuan/ton. Trading volume reached 616,600 lots (+126,300), and open interest reached 171,200 lots (+3,500) [97] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost - side support [100] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel decreased, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel narrowed, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamentals - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased, while imports increased. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. 200 - series and 300 - series inventories decreased, while 400 - series inventory increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - The strategy for stainless steel is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand, a loose fundamental situation, and weakening costs, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [6][120][121]

Group 1 - International gold prices increased on the 24th, driven by rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a weaker US dollar [1] - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4094.2 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.36% [1] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, with several brands reporting an increase in the price of pure gold jewelry to 1315 yuan per gram [3] - Specific brand prices include Chow Sang Sang at 1315 yuan/gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1312 yuan/gram, and Lao Feng Xiang at 1315 yuan/gram, among others [3]

Market Overview - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.69%, surpassing 26,000 points at one point, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.87% and 1.2%, respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks continued to rise, with significant gains in major companies such as Baidu, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and JD.com [4] - Financial stocks, including banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, generally saw increases [2] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metal stocks performed well, driven by the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2][12] Notable Stocks - Baidu's stock price increased by 4.56% after Morgan Stanley raised its target price to $188, citing Baidu's transformation into an AI infrastructure provider [4][5] - Xiaomi's stock rose by 4.35% as its founder invested over HKD 100 million to increase his stake [4][5] - Other notable performers included Bilibili, which rose by 5.22%, and NIO, which increased by 3.04% [5][6] Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 11.166 billion, indicating strong investor interest in Hong Kong stocks [9] - The market is expected to recover from recent declines, as the current downturn reflects irrational panic rather than fundamental issues [11] Industry Insights - The battery and lithium battery sectors saw gains, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium rising over 4% and 3%, respectively [6] - The aviation sector faced pressure, with China Eastern Airlines and Air China experiencing declines due to a significant increase in flight cancellations to Japan [7][8]