◆来源：21世纪经济报道、智通财经 Wind数据显示，7日下午现货黄金短线上扬，逼近3400美元关口，日内一度涨超0.8%，COMEX黄金也 上涨超0.9%。截至17时，现货黄金报36378.56美元/盎司。 最新数据显示，中国7月末黄金储备报7396万盎司（约2300.41吨），环比增加6万盎司（约1.86吨），为 连续第9个月增持黄金。 消息面上，美联储降息预期持续升温，叠加美国非农数据疲弱及地缘政治风险，为黄金提供支撑。与此 同时，上海期货交易所黄金库存已跃升至历史新高的36吨，较上月几乎翻倍，反映出期货市场交投活 跃，套利交易需求旺盛。 近日，素有"黄金空头"之称的花旗转向看涨黄金，将未来三个月的黄金价格预测从3300美元/盎司上调 至3500美元/盎司，并将预期交易区间从每盎司3100至3500美元调整为3300至3600美元。 终审：臧立 编辑：孙懿辞 初审：梁爽 复审：曹光宇 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Global trade tensions are increasing demand for safe-haven assets, with Trump's tariffs on imports raising the average U.S. import tariff to its highest level in a century, leading to heightened inflation and economic slowdown concerns [2] - U.S. labor market data shows weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, and the market is increasingly expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability exceeding 91% [2] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, particularly in the Middle East and due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is further enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has maintained a strong upward trend, with key support levels at 3380, 3371, and 3365, while resistance is noted at 3432 [5][8] - On the four-hour chart, gold is likely in the fifth wave of an upward trend, with critical support at 3350/3349, and the market should be monitored for potential resistance at previous highs of 3438/3439 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a sudden surge in prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weak U.S. non-farm data, and geopolitical risks, providing strong support for gold [7]. Price Movements - As of 15:38, NYMEX palladium rose by 1.73%, NYMEX platinum increased by 1.72%, spot silver expanded its gains to 1%, and spot gold rose approximately 0.8% to $3395 per ounce [3][4]. - COMEX gold was reported at $3466 per ounce, reflecting a 0.73% increase [5]. Market Demand - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase [7]. - The demand value increased significantly by 45% year-on-year, setting a new historical high [7]. Investment Trends - Gold ETF investments were a key driver of total gold demand, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024 [9]. - The total demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% to 307 tons, with Chinese demand increasing by 44% to 115 tons [9]. Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased by 3% to 1249 tons, with mine production reaching a historical high in Q2 2025 [7]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2 2025, although the pace of purchases has slowed [9]. Jewelry Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption declined by 14% year-on-year in Q2 2025, nearing 2020's low levels, despite a rise in value to $36 billion [10]. - In China, gold jewelry demand fell to 69 tons, a 20% year-on-year decrease, marking the weakest performance for Q2 since 2007 [10]. Market Outlook - The strong performance of gold in the first half of 2025 suggests potential price stability in the second half, although macroeconomic uncertainties may provide further support for gold prices [8]. - The high-end jewelry market remains robust, driven by emerging brands, while traditional retail faces challenges due to declining consumer demand [12].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a sudden surge in prices on August 7, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, weak U.S. non-farm data, and geopolitical risks, providing strong support for gold [1][5]. Price Movements - As of 15:38, NYMEX palladium rose by 1.73%, NYMEX platinum increased by 1.72%, spot silver expanded its gains to 1%, and spot gold rose approximately 0.8%, reaching $3,395 per ounce, while COMEX gold was reported at $3,466 per ounce, up 0.73% [3][5]. - The London gold price was reported at $3,395.67, reflecting a gain of 0.80% from the previous close [4]. Market Demand and Supply - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1,249 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In value terms, this represented a significant 45% increase compared to the previous year, setting a new historical high [6]. - Gold supply also saw a slight increase, with mine production reaching a historical high in Q2, resulting in a total supply growth of 3% to 1,249 tons. Recycled gold supply grew by 4% year-on-year but remained relatively subdued in the context of high gold prices [6]. Market Sentiment - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, raising its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 per ounce to $3,500 per ounce, and adjusting the expected trading range from $3,100-$3,500 to $3,300-$3,600 [6]. - The strong investment activity in the first half of 2025 highlighted gold's role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks, with gold prices increasing by 26% over the same period, outperforming most mainstream asset classes [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Kanglong Chemical's business has been minimally affected by the recent U.S. tariffs, as their primary focus is on providing R&D services, with a small proportion of their business related to commercial goods exports [2] - The company has not received any feedback from clients or partners indicating that tariff issues have impacted their business collaborations [2] - Kanglong Chemical is closely monitoring macroeconomic uncertainties and related policy developments, while also advising investors to be aware of investment risks in the context of geopolitical factors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline, approaching the lower limit of the trading range since July. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include a decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors are the possibility of a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market's reaction to bullish factors is limited, possibly due to the weakening of peak - season demand support. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus intensifies, and time is bearish for crude oil, with limited upside potential and a need to watch for downside risks. There is a lack of substantial short - term positive news, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia can be implemented after August 8 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Multi - and Short - Term Analysis - Bullish factors: Decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data; Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices; Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50% [4]. - Bearish factors: A meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.2. Market Dynamics - US EIA data for the week ending August 1: Crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected - 0.591 million barrels, previous value + 7.698 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels (previous value + 0.0238 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels (previous value + 0.069 million barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels (expected - 0.406 million barrels, previous value - 2.724 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels (expected + 0.775 million barrels, previous value + 3.635 million barrels). Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization rate was 96.9% (expected 95.2%, previous value 95.4%) [5]. - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of September light crude oil. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, compared with a premium of $2.20 per barrel in August. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to the US in September was at a premium of $4.2 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, and the OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to north - western Europe in September was at a premium of $3.35 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [5]. - The US White House stated that Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. The tax rate will take effect at 00:01 on the 21st day after the issuance of the executive order [5]. 3.3. Global Crude Oil Futures Prices and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2025 - 08 - 06 | 2025 - 07 - 31 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 67.43 | 66.89 | 72.53 | 0.54 | - 5.1 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 63.94 | 63.41 | 68.2 | 0.53 | - 4.26 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 494.2 | 499.5 | 525.3 | - 5.3 | - 31.1 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 66.21 | 66.77 | 72.51 | - 0.56 | - 6.3 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 69 | 69.18 | 75.07 | - 0.18 | - 6.07 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 69.41 | 69.8 | 76 | - 0.39 | - 6.59 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 0.68 | 0.87 | 0.73 | - 0.19 | - 0.05 | | Brent Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.72 | - 0.05 | - 0.1 | | Oman Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 1.53 | 0.67 | 1.94 | 0.86 | - 0.41 | | Dubai Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.93 | 0.88 | 1 | 0.05 | - 0.07 | | SC Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | - 1.1 | - 0.7 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 1.6424 | 3.2412 | 0.2382 | - 1.5988 | 1.4042 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.0076 | 0.8512 | - 2.8418 | - 1.8588 | 1.8342 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in gold and other precious metals prices, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weak U.S. non-farm data, and geopolitical risks, which have bolstered demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. Precious Metals Market Summary - As of August 7, precious metals experienced notable price increases, with NYMEX palladium rising by 1.73%, NYMEX platinum by 1.72%, and spot gold reaching approximately $3,395 per ounce, reflecting a 0.80% increase [2][3]. - The dollar index has seen a sharp decline, hovering around the 98 mark, which typically supports gold prices [4]. Global Gold Demand Trends - According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand surged to 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand value reaching $132 billion, marking a 45% increase and setting a new historical record [7]. - The increase in demand is attributed to strong investment activity, particularly in gold ETFs, which saw inflows of 170 tons in Q2, contrasting with outflows in the same period of the previous year [10]. Investment Demand Insights - Gold bar and coin investments rose by 11% to 307 tons in Q2, with Chinese demand increasing by 44% to 115 tons, while Indian demand reached 46 tons [10]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2, although the pace of purchases has slowed [10]. Jewelry Demand Analysis - Global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year in Q2, nearing 2020 lows, with China's demand dropping to 69 tons, a 20% decline [12]. - Despite the decrease in volume, the value of global gold jewelry consumption increased to $36 billion in Q2 [12]. Market Outlook - The article suggests that the strong start to the year may lead to a relatively narrow trading range for gold prices in the second half of the year, with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties providing further support for gold [8][10]. - The high prices of gold are expected to continue to pressure jewelry demand, while the ongoing consolidation in the jewelry market may lead to a healthier long-term market environment [14].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices remain strong, trading around $3,381, following a slight decline of 0.34% to $3,369.19 on August 6, after reaching a two-week high of $3,390 [1][3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have surged, with the probability increasing from 46.7% to 92% due to disappointing July employment data [3][5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly from U.S. tariffs on India and Switzerland, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with July job additions significantly below expectations and prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about economic slowdown [3][4] - The ISM report indicates slowing service sector growth but increasing price pressures, which may limit the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to challenge the $3,400 level, with support seen around $3,360, indicating a potential upward trend [6][7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest entering long positions near $3,370 with a stop loss at $3,359 and targets set at $3,400 to $3,415 [6] - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with traders advised to monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches and initial jobless claims data for further direction [5][7]

避险需求与市场情绪的博弈黄金作为传统避险资产，其价格通常受到全球经济不确定性和地缘政治风险 的支撑。近期，市场对美国经济放缓的担忧有所加剧，尤其是7月就业数据远低于预期，且前两月数据 被大幅下修，显示出劳动力市场的疲软信号。这不仅推高了黄金的避险需求，也促使市场对美联储货币 政策的预期发生转变。然而，随着部分投资者获利了结，避险情绪有所降温，金价的上涨动能暂时受 阻。Meger进一步指出，黄金市场当前处于一种平衡状态，既受到经济放缓的支撑，又因短期获利了结 而承压，未来走势将取决于新的经济数据和地缘政治事件的演变。 特朗普宣布对俄追加二级制裁8月6日，特朗普表示将对俄罗斯实施更多二级制裁。此前，他于7月29日 设下10天期限，要求俄乌达成和平协议，否则将施加新制裁。目前，谈判期限定为8月8日。综合来看， 黄金市场短期内可能继续受到获利了结和技术性回调的压力，但美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险以及美 元走弱为金价提供了坚实的长期支撑。市场对9月降息的押注已接近确定，美联储决策者的鸽派表态进 一步强化了这一预期。此外，特朗普的关税政策和美联储人事调整的不确定性将继续为黄金提供避险溢 价。然而，若美债收益率持续走高或全 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in an "oscillating" state, which implies a neutral stance on the overall energy and chemical industry in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is facing different external factors with inconsistent directions of contradictions, presenting an oscillating pattern. Coal prices are rising, increasing the cost of coal - based chemicals, while crude oil has been falling for four days, reducing the cost of oil - based chemicals. The industry itself and the macro - end also have different trends. It is advisable for investors to take a light - position in the hedging of oil - based and coal - based chemicals [2]. - The overall chemical industry will continue to oscillate and consolidate, and the trend is still unclear. The short - term trends of various chemical products are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply and demand changes, and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Although the US and Russia's statements on promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are optimistic, the expectation of the US to impose additional secondary sanctions on Russia is still hard to disprove. EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels in the week of August 1, and the net import of crude oil decreased by 794,000 barrels per day. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased from 95.4% to 96.9%. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates after reaching the support level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariffs and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery's operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [7]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The tax on fuel oil imports in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures price oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened following crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has increased, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with limited demand space, but the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate following crude oil [9]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The inland price is running strongly, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On August 6, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the coal end in the short term. The northwest methanol market continued to be strong, and the port inventory increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: After the export information is confirmed, the futures price has reached the top and is about to oscillate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment was boosted by the high - price Indian tender and export news on August 5 and 6, but the downstream follow - up was cautious, and the actual trading volume was average. After the export information was basically confirmed, the market's positive sentiment faded. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate and consolidate, and it is likely to decline weakly. Pay attention to whether there are more changes in the Indian tender before August 8 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The support from coal prices is increasing, and the expectation of inventory accumulation is narrowing. - **Main Logic**: Supported by coal prices and the improvement of market sentiment, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level. Overseas plant shutdowns have reduced the expected import volume in August, and the inventory accumulation amplitude has slightly narrowed. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [14][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The decline of PX is slowing down as the cost stops falling and the commodity sentiment strengthens. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the macro - atmosphere has continued to strengthen, pushing up the PX price. In terms of supply and demand, the change in PX is limited. Due to the low processing fee of PTA, some PTA plants have reduced their production, but the demand reduction is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [10]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Under low processing fees, unexpected maintenance has increased, and the commodity sentiment has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has stopped falling, and the PTA futures price has strengthened following the cost. The basis has continued to weaken, and the spot processing fee has been continuously compressed. Some mainstream PTA manufacturers have reduced their production, and the downstream polyester filament sales have increased, but the supply - demand drive is still weak. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [10]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The futures market has boosted the spot market atmosphere, and the sales volume has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: There are no significant changes in the fundamentals. Supported by the polymerization cost, the short - fiber price has been boosted, and the sales volume has slightly improved, but the terminal orders are average. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee will be weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long - term. The absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The polyester bottle - chip price is supported after the polymerization cost stops falling. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester cost has stopped falling and rebounded slightly, supporting the polyester bottle - chip price. The bottle - chip processing fee has been slightly repaired, but the subsequent profit expansion space is limited. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chip processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate has slightly decreased, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has slightly boosted in the short term, while the oil price has oscillated and declined. The supply side of PP is still in an incremental state, and the demand side is weak. The downstream plastic weaving and injection molding operating rates are lower than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23][24]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It mainly follows the fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream factories follow up as needed. The short - term disk follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end has provided some support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [24]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Affected differently by oil and coal, the plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price has oscillated and weakened in the short term, while the macro - end has slightly improved, and the coal end has some positive news. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will oscillate in the short term [22]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined after the Politburo meeting, but there is still some support due to the military parade expectation. The oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated investments in pure benzene upstream and downstream plants, which have a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply of pure benzene will increase, but with new downstream production, the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction. The import arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory may be reduced in stages, slightly boosting the price [11][12][13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has been continuously accumulating, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term replenishment of styrene downstream has decreased, and the support has weakened. The supply of styrene itself has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The new home appliance production schedule data is average, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost of pure benzene is stable or slightly strong, but the driving force for styrene is limited. Overall, the styrene price may oscillate and decline slightly [13][14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in cost. The upstream production will increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the export has improved. - **Outlook**: The futures price will oscillate under the situation of strong expectation and weak reality [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is falling rapidly, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for caustic soda from alumina production is increasing marginally, but there is no significant change in non - aluminum production. The inventory of caustic soda in the downstream is not high, and the 50% caustic soda inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The futures price is under downward pressure, and pay attention to whether upstream producers will reduce production due to low profits, the performance of downstream peak seasons, and policy expectations [28][29].