1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market continues to be highly volatile in the short - term, and the US dollar index is expected to decline further. The potential liquidity inflection point may have a positive impact on risky assets [33][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview for the Week - Market risk appetite fluctuated. Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US stocks rising and A - shares falling. Bond yields mostly declined, and the yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Gold prices soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, the VIX index slightly decreased to 20.78, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel [2][5][10] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance. Developed markets' stocks mostly rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7%. Emerging markets' stocks mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 1.47%. The US government shutdown, tariff risks, and domestic economic data all affected the stock market. The US stock market's volatility is expected to increase, and the domestic stock market has a correction pressure [11][12] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.01%. The US government shutdown, Fed Chairman Powell's speech, and concerns about the Sino - US tariff negotiation all influenced the bond market. The decline space of US Treasury yields is limited [15][17][18] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Offshore RMB rose 0.26%, the euro rose 0.3%, the pound rose 0.49%, the yen rose 0.38%, the Swiss franc rose 0.79%, the real rebounded 2%, and the Australian dollar, South Korean won, and rand closed higher, while the Canadian dollar, rupee, and Thai baht closed lower [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, hitting a new high. Brent crude oil dropped 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel. The Sino - US trade friction and Fed Chairman Powell's speech affected the commodity market. Gold may face a short - term correction risk [27][28] 3.3 Hot - spot Tracking - The US government shutdown led to the non - release of inflation data. US local banks had a blow - up due to the negative impact of commercial real - estate non - performing assets. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet in a few months. The short - term confrontation between China and the US has cooled down, and the market will continue to be volatile, with the US dollar index expected to decline [33][34] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's Q3 GDP and the 20th - 23rd 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee - Tuesday: The Fed holds a payment innovation meeting - Wednesday: UK's September CPI - Thursday: US's September existing - home sales - Friday: US's September CPI, France, Germany, the Eurozone, UK, and US's October manufacturing PMI [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The risk appetite has declined, and the iron ore price has corrected from its high level. The supply - side disturbances of iron ore have been fully priced in the previous period. The market has now returned to trading the potential macro - negative impacts of Sino - US trade frictions. Coupled with the further erosion of industrial chain profits by the coking coal end, the relative strength of iron ore prices has weakened [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Overall Shipping Volume Data**: The global shipping volume in the recent week was 3207.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 186.6 million tons. The cumulative shipping volume from the beginning of the year to the current period was 126,682.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The Australian shipping volume was 1854 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 212.6 million tons. The cumulative Australian shipping volume was 72,761.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The Brazilian shipping volume was 812.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 37.6 million tons. The cumulative Brazilian shipping volume was 30,761.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [4]. - **Shipping Volume of Major Miners to China**: Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 505.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80.7 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.7 million tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 501.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 60.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 33.7 million tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 342.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.3 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 114 million tons. Vale's global shipping volume was 600.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 54.2 million tons [4]. - **Supply - side Situation Analysis**: The recent shipping volume of mainstream iron ore has recovered to a year - on - year high, and freight rates have increased. In Q4, the shipping volume of Rio Tinto and Vale is still expected to increase. The shipping volume from Peru and Ukraine has not recovered yet, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has not recovered [5][16][20][27]. 3.2 Demand - **Downstream Demand**: The hot metal production remains at a relatively high level, but its marginal impact on ore prices has weakened. The scrap steel price has risen and then fallen, and the price difference between scrap steel and hot metal has shrunk again [5][30][34]. 3.3 Market Performance - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 771.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 545,000 lots, an increase of 69,200 lots. The average daily trading volume was 369,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 136,000 lots [7]. - **Spot Price Performance**: The spot price has fallen from its high level following the futures market. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) in Qingdao Port decreased from 923 yuan/ton last week to 901 yuan/ton this week [11]. 3.4 Inventory - The port inventory shows a seasonal accumulation trend in Q4 [38][40]. 3.5 Downstream Profit - The downstream industry has a high operating rate, but the profit has been continuously declining [42]. 3.6 Spot Category Price Difference - This week, the high - grade Carajás fines have corrected significantly, and the price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines has weakened. The price of domestic iron ore concentrate is still relatively strong compared to imported PB fines [45]. 3.7 Futures Monthly Spread - The valuation of the calendar spread for the bull spread is relatively high year - on - year. Recently, attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread narrowing caused by the macro - risk appetite correction [51]. 3.8 Basis Performance - This week, the futures price has fallen rapidly from its high level, and the basis has increased significantly [53].

Core Viewpoint - China's new round of rare earth export control policies has effectively impacted U.S. interests, leading to pressure on the Trump administration to seek concessions from China [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Interests - The announcement of China's rare earth regulations prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary to request China to withdraw the export controls, indicating significant domestic pressure [1]. - If no new agreement is reached before the tariff buffer period ends next month, the U.S. may impose tariffs as high as several hundred percent on China, increasing the risk of market decoupling [1]. Group 2: China's Stance - China maintains a firm position against U.S. confrontation, indicating readiness to engage fully if necessary [3]. - The U.S. recognizes that continued tariff wars would ultimately harm its own economy, as evidenced by the request for a three-month tariff buffer in exchange for the withdrawal of rare earth controls [3]. Group 3: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are critical for the production of high-precision chips and military equipment, making their availability more crucial to the U.S. than high-tech chips themselves [5]. - The lack of rare earths could lead to significant risks for U.S. chip manufacturers and military industries, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [5]. Group 4: Development of Domestic Chip Industry - China has significantly reduced its reliance on U.S. chips by promoting domestic chip development, achieving comprehensive coverage in many sectors [9]. - The rapid growth of China's chip industry is attributed to U.S. pressure, which has accelerated domestic innovation rather than reliance on imports [9]. Group 5: U.S. Global Position - The effectiveness of U.S. tariffs against China has diminished, raising questions about America's ability to negotiate from a position of strength [9]. - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a reassessment of whether the U.S. can maintain its status as the world's leading power, especially as it faces challenges in its trade policies [9].

Group 1: Iran Nuclear Agreement - Iran's Foreign Ministry announced that the restrictions of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have expired as of October 18, 2023, marking the end of the 10-year limit set by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 [3] - The Iranian government emphasized that the mechanisms established under the resolution should naturally cease to exist, and Iran's nuclear issue should be removed from the Security Council's agenda [3] - Iran stated that its nuclear program will now be treated equally to that of any non-nuclear weapon state under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, subject to regular oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency without additional restrictions [3] Group 2: Global Market Trends - Global stock markets faced significant declines, referred to as "Black Friday," with major indices experiencing sharp drops, including a nearly 500-point fall in the Dow Jones and a 4% drop in the Chinese concept stock index [13] - Concerns over regional bank failures in the U.S. and the potential escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions contributed to investor anxiety, leading to widespread sell-offs [14] - The A-share market also reflected volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.95% and the ChiNext Index falling by 3.36% [13][14] Group 3: Japanese Political Developments - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party have reached a basic consensus on a coalition government, expected to sign an agreement on October 20, 2023 [9] - The coalition will involve a 10% reduction in the number of seats in the National Diet, with the Japan Innovation Party participating as an external partner without joining the new cabinet [9] - This alliance is anticipated to secure the election of LDP's new president, Sanae Takaichi, in the upcoming prime ministerial election [10][11]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant drop on October 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing and regaining the 3900-point mark, while the ChiNext Index fell below the psychological level of 3000 points, leading to a total market value loss of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan in one day [1] - The market's performance mirrored the "long winter" of 2018, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 24.59% throughout the year due to trade tensions and deleveraging [1] Market Dynamics - The A-share market exhibited extreme volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.95%, the Shenzhen Component down by 3.04%, and the ChiNext Index plummeting by 3.71% [3] - Only 602 stocks rose while 4783 stocks fell, indicating a severe sell-off, with 28 stocks hitting the daily limit down and only 44 stocks hitting the limit up [3] - Trading volume has decreased significantly, with two consecutive days of turnover below 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [3] External Factors - The escalation of Sino-U.S. trade tensions in October, including threats of 100% tariffs and export controls on key software, has negatively impacted market confidence [5] - The re-emergence of a crisis in U.S. regional banks has led to a sell-off in A-shares, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. [5] - The technology sector has been particularly hard hit, with leading AI stocks experiencing daily declines exceeding 5% [5][6] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and insurance have shown resilience, with the banking sector rising by 4.93% and insurance by 5.13% [9] - There has been a notable shift from growth to value investing, as investors seek refuge in high-dividend assets amidst market turmoil [9] Investment Trends - Institutional investors are reallocating funds, with over 20 billion yuan exiting popular sectors like semiconductors and AI [7] - Long-term funds are increasingly investing in high-dividend sectors, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [11] - Some private equity funds are positioning themselves in sectors likely to benefit from government policies, such as rare earths and shipping stocks [11] Policy Outlook - The upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting is anticipated to be a catalyst for market recovery, with expectations for policy support in technology and green transformation [13] - Historical patterns suggest that the market is sensitive to policy announcements, which could lead to a rebound similar to past instances [13] - However, the effectiveness of policies may be challenged by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the need for time to assess their impact [13] Market Sentiment - The current market environment reflects a duality of "asset scarcity" and "flight to safety," indicating a need for policies that directly address investor confidence [13][15] - The extreme market differentiation may signal the potential for future opportunities, reminiscent of the post-2018 recovery in sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the current real - world situation for manganese and silicon ferroalloys remains unfavorable, most of this has been factored into prices. Subsequent macro - level factors, such as important meetings, may be more crucial. The market's anticipation trading for future important meetings is currently insufficient, and attention should be paid to potential expectation gaps [15][97]. - For the future of the black sector, there is no pessimism. It is considered that seeking rebound opportunities after price corrections may be more cost - effective. After nearly four years of decline, the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened [15][97]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major driving force. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, the manganese ore end may trigger a market for manganese silicon. Otherwise, it will likely follow the black sector's trend [15]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon ferroalloy have no obvious contradictions or drivers and will probably follow the black sector's trend, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [97]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5718 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. The basis was 152 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.61%, at a relatively neutral historical level. Manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 315 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at - 394 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at - 700 yuan/ton (down 79 yuan/ton). The estimated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia was 5995 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5994 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at 6350 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton). Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 20.88 tons, up 0.46 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 0.07%. The weekly output of rebar was 201.16 tons, down 2.24 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.99%. The daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 52.39 tons, up 1.12 tons, remaining at a high level in the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a relatively neutral level; production profit continued to be in the red; production volume continued to recover; rebar demand was weak, while pig iron remained above 240 tons; visible inventory remained at a high level in the same period; the tender volume increased slightly, while the tender price continued to decline. The manganese silicon futures price oscillated at the bottom of the range last week. The subsequent sentiment of Sino - US trade frictions may ease, and the safety accident in Inner Mongolia is expected to improve the sentiment of the black sector marginally [15]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market As of October 17, 2025, the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5718 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 152 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.61%, at a relatively neutral historical level [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 315 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at - 394 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at - 700 yuan/ton (down 79 yuan/ton) [24][25]. - **Production Cost**: As of October 17, 2025, the electricity prices in major production areas remained stable. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5995 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5994 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at 6350 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton) [30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In August, the manganese ore import volume was 348.6 tons, up 74.24 tons month - on - month and 87.53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 2068.88 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 181.7 tons or 9.63% [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 445.7 tons, down 2.1 tons. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore was 68.4 tons, up 1.8 tons, and the total high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 115.2 tons, down 6.7 tons [36][39]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of October 17, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 20.88 tons, up 0.46 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 0.07%. In September 2025, the output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to September decreased by 12.05 tons or 1.58% year - on - year [44]. - **Output in Major Production Areas**: In September 2025, Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume was 17,000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [57]. - **Consumption**: As of October 17, 2025, Steel Union's weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.1 tons, down 0.1 tons week - on - week. The weekly rebar output was 201.16 tons, down 2.24 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.99%. The daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 6.66 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1143 tons or 1.69%. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points [60][63][64]. 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 52.39 tons, up 1.12 tons, continuing to rise and remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 26.25 tons, up 2 tons [72][75]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days, still at a relatively low level in the same historical period [78]. 3.6 Graphical Trends Last week, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated at the bottom of the range, with a weekly decline of 38 yuan/ton or 0.66%. On the daily - line level, it remained within the 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton oscillation range, running near the lower edge of the range and approaching the right - hand downward trend line. Attention should be paid to the support near 5600 yuan/ton and the direction selection when approaching the right - hand trend line [15][81]. Silicon Ferroalloy Report 3.7 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.13 tons or 4.80%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative silicon ferroalloy export volume was 27.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.89 tons or 6.52%. The estimated visible inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 13.41 tons, down 0.9 tons, continuing to decline and remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF601) closed at 5430 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; the basis was 170 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.04%, at a relatively high historical level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was - 604 yuan/ton (unchanged), Ningxia was - 430 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai was - 397 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton). The estimated production cost in major production areas remained basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5784 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5560 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai at 5547 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton). Steel Union's weekly silicon ferroalloy output was 11.28 tons, down 0.3 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 1.56% [96]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a relatively high level; production volume decreased slightly; production profit continued to be in the red; pig iron remained above 240 tons, while export and metallic magnesium demand were still average; visible inventory continued to decline, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume increased slightly, while the tender price continued to fall. The silicon ferroalloy futures price rebounded after reaching the bottom last week, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.63%. On the daily - line level, it remained within the 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton oscillation range. Attention should be paid to the support near 5400 yuan/ton and the direction selection when approaching the right - hand downward trend line [97]. 3.8 Spot and Futures Market As of October 17, 2025, the Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF601) closed at 5430 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; the basis was 170 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.04%, at a relatively high historical level [102]. 3.9 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was - 604 yuan/ton (unchanged), Ningxia was - 430 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai was - 397 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton) [107]. - **Production Cost**: As of October 17, 2025, the electricity prices in major production areas remained stable. The estimated production cost in major production areas remained basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5784 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5560 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai at 5547 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton) [113]. 3.10 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of October 17, 2025, Steel Union's weekly silicon ferroalloy output was 11.28 tons, down 0.3 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 1.56%. In September 2025, the output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to September increased by 5.52 tons or 1.36% year - on - year [118]. - **Output in Major Production Areas**: In September 2025, Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon ferroalloy tender volume was 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - **Consumption**: As of October 17, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 6.66 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1143 tons or 1.69%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.13 tons or 4.80%. As of October 17, 2025, the metallic magnesium price in Fugu area was 16,275 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative silicon ferroalloy export volume was 27.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.89 tons or 6.52%. The estimated export profit of silicon ferroalloy was 0 yuan/ton, still at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to August 2025, the total overseas crude steel output was 5.57 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 300 tons or 0.54% [127][130][133][134]. 3.11 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 13.41 tons, down 0.9 tons, continuing to decline and remaining at a relatively high level in the same period [141]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy in steel mills was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days, and the raw material inventory in steel mills continued to rise slightly, still at a relatively low level in the same historical period [144]. 3.12 Graphical Trends Last week, the silicon ferroalloy futures price rebounded after reaching the bottom, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.63%. On the daily - line level, it remained within the 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton oscillation range. Attention should be paid to the support near 5400 yuan/ton and the direction selection when approaching the right - hand downward trend line [149].

Core Insights - China's new rare earth export regulations are not a simple ban but a sophisticated set of measures targeting critical materials used in advanced military and high-tech applications, such as terbium and neodymium [1] - The regulations also encompass key production equipment and technologies, including centrifuge extraction devices and related design blueprints [1] - The rules have "long-arm jurisdiction," meaning that even if a product is manufactured abroad, it must be approved by China if it contains even 0.1% of controlled rare earth materials [1] Export Data Analysis - In September, China's rare earth product exports decreased to 6,538 tons from 7,338 tons in August, yet the export revenue increased by over 10%, indicating a rise in the value of rare earths [4] - This price increase reflects both market dynamics and the strategic importance of rare earths amid ongoing US-China trade tensions [4] Impact on US Industries - The new regulations pose significant challenges for US high-tech and military industries, which heavily rely on rare earths, affecting production processes for advanced equipment like the F-35 fighter jet [7] - Establishing a competitive domestic rare earth supply chain in the US is projected to take over ten years and require investments of several billion dollars, making complete decoupling from China highly difficult in the short term [7] Future Implications - The new rare earth policies may accelerate the diversification of the global rare earth supply chain, potentially leading to two parallel systems: one centered around China and another being developed by the US and its allies at a higher cost [10] - For China, the challenge lies in balancing openness and security while continuing to act as a responsible supplier in the global green transition, which relies heavily on rare earths [10] - Despite the US's vocal efforts to reduce dependency, the path to independence remains long, and they will still need to purchase rare earths from China under the new regulations [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week, Sino-US trade frictions have been fluctuating, with the SCFI continuing to rise. In the short term, Sino-US relations may ease, creating opportunities for high-level meetings between the two sides [2]. - Real estate sales are weak, and the "Silver October" is lackluster, partly due to the high base caused by the "924 New Policy" last year [2]. - The prices of rebar and cement continue to decline. Weak demand remains the key factor restricting the recovery of spot prices. In the futures market, coking coal and coke led the rise in domestic commodity futures on Friday night, and safety supervision has some impact on the supply side [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales - This week, real estate sales remained weak after the holiday. The new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 269.58% week-on-week but decreased by 21.66% year-on-year. New home sales in all tiers of cities were significantly stronger than the previous period but still weak compared to the same period last year, with first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities showing a large decline in new home sales area compared to last year [3][8]. - Looking at key cities, new home sales increased significantly week-on-week, with notable increases in Shenzhen (567.67%) and Suzhou (419.10%). However, new home sales area in all cities was significantly lower than the same period last year [14]. - Second-hand home sales also increased significantly week-on-week, with the decline narrowing year-on-year. In key cities, second-hand home sales area increased significantly week-on-week, with significant increases in Beijing (582.88%) and Shenzhen (573.7%). However, second-hand home sales area in all key cities decreased compared to the same period last year [25]. 2. Investment - In terms of investment, most commodity prices declined this week. Rebar prices, glass futures prices, asphalt prices, and cement prices all decreased [34]. 3. Production - In terms of production, most operating rates increased this week. The PTA operating rate decreased, while the operating rate of automobile tires increased significantly, and the operating rates of petroleum asphalt, polyester filament, coking enterprises, and steel blast furnaces remained basically flat [44]. 4. Consumption - In terms of consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway ridership, domestic flights, and automobile consumption were above seasonal levels, while movie box office was below seasonal levels [52]. 5. Exports - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased significantly this week, the BDI index increased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly [59]. 6. Prices - In terms of prices, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased, and oil prices decreased. Rebar prices also decreased [63].

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.95%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.04% to 12688.94 points [3] - The overall market saw 4781 stocks decline, marking the highest number of declining stocks in nearly a month, with a total trading volume of 1.95 trillion [3][4] - The current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, attributed to escalating uncertainties in US-China trade relations, despite the absence of significant negative news [6] Sector Performance - All major sectors declined, but defensive sectors related to dividends, such as banking and agriculture, experienced smaller declines, with the Agricultural Bank of China rising 1.74% to a record high [6] - High-performing sectors earlier in the year, such as power equipment, electronics, and automotive, saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.99%, 4.10%, and 3.74% respectively [6] Policy and Earnings Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to bring a series of policy announcements, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will clarify policy directions for the following year [6] - Investment opportunities may arise from themes such as "de-involution" in new energy and semiconductors, unified markets in consumption and cycles, and marine economy [6] Bond Market - The bond market showed a continued upward trend, with all government bond futures contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which closed at 115.87, up 0.74% [12] - The central bank's operations indicate a relatively ample liquidity environment, with a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion from the market, yet overall funding remains sufficient [12] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold prices reaching a new high, peaking at 1001 CNY per gram, driven by risk aversion and policy expectations [12][10] - The energy sector faced downward pressure due to rising oil inventories and production levels, with the US EIA reporting an increase of 3.524 million barrels in crude oil inventories [11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to increased capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [13] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from RMB appreciation and market style shifts, while brokerage firms may see increased activity due to active trading and potential changes in trading regulations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the A-share market, attributing it to high valuations in certain sectors, profit-taking by investors, and external uncertainties such as trade policies and global market sentiment [1][3]. Market Adjustment Factors - The market adjustment is primarily driven by heightened trade tensions, leading to decreased risk appetite among investors. This has resulted in profit-taking from previously high-performing sectors, particularly technology [2][3]. - External factors, including the recent crisis in U.S. regional banks and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, have contributed to increased market volatility [3]. Short-term Market Outlook - Despite the current market pressures, fund companies believe that the downside potential is limited. The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are expected to stabilize after a period of volatility [4][5]. - The market is currently in a risk release phase, but this is anticipated to be short-lived, with a focus on upcoming trade negotiation milestones in November [5][6]. Investment Strategy - Fund managers suggest that the market correction presents an opportunity for balanced portfolio allocation. They recommend focusing on sectors that may benefit from policy support and improving earnings expectations [7][8]. - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to show resilience during market adjustments [8][9]. Defensive Investment Considerations - Following two months of market adjustments, sectors like banking are regaining their dividend yield appeal, making dividend stocks a defensive option during periods of market volatility [9]. - The technology sector remains a focal point, although caution is advised due to the liquidity-driven nature of the recent market rally [9].