1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April, the bond market first declined significantly and then fluctuated sideways under the influence of factors such as the unexpected US tariff policy, better Q1 fundamental data, and the repeated Sino - US tariff game. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15BP to 1.66%. The yield curve flattened in a bullish manner [1][8]. - In May, the supply of government bonds is expected to reach a peak, with the special treasury bonds entering the issuance peak and the accelerated implementation of new special bonds. The net supply of government bonds in May may be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high [2][49]. - The central bank is likely to conduct operations such as reverse repurchase and MLF net injection to support liquidity, and may restart treasury bond trading operations. Substantive loose monetary policies such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts are also expected, and the money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May, attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and the short - term trading opportunities. The 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and appropriate incremental allocation can be made during adjustments [5][81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Declined Significantly and Then Fluctuated Sideways, and the Yield Curve Flattened in a Bullish Manner - In April, affected by multiple factors, the bond market first declined and then fluctuated. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15.23BP to 1.66%, and the 1Y Treasury yield dropped 8.78BP to 1.45%. The term spread narrowed by 6.45BP to 21.05BP [1][8]. - Overseas, US inflation showed a cooling trend, the labor market remained resilient, and the US equivalent tariff policy led to a decline in global risk appetite. The US Treasury yield rose significantly due to liquidity issues caused by basis trading. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June [10]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Supply Peak is Approaching, Pay Attention to the Central Bank's Attitude and Hedging Operations - **Fundamentals**: Q1 fundamental data recovered more than expected, but the macro - data led by exports may be under short - term pressure in Q2. In May, continue to focus on the continuation of strong social financing, the improvement of CPI, the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on exports, and the drag of external demand on PMI. Also, pay attention to the impact of the improvement of real - estate data on the fundamentals [2][33]. - **Supply**: In May, the special treasury bonds will enter the issuance peak, and the new special bonds will be accelerated. The net supply of government bonds is expected to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high. The supply of ordinary treasury bonds and special bonds for replacing hidden debts may shrink [2][49]. - **Money Market**: The accelerated issuance of government bonds may disturb the money market, but the central bank is likely to conduct operations to support liquidity. The money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone for macro - policies, but the incremental information was limited. Structural and aggregate monetary policy tools are expected to work together. Reserve - requirement ratio cuts may occur in May, while interest - rate cuts need to wait for the Fed to open the window [3][70]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In April, institutions increased their bond holdings, but there were obvious differences between bulls and bears. Banks were the main sellers, and other institutions were buyers. In May, there are opportunities for allocation in ultra - long - term bonds and trading in short - term bonds [4][75]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Not Bearish, Pay Attention to the Allocation Value of Ultra - long - term Bonds under the Supply Peak - In May, the main points of concern include the stability of the money market, the supply peak of government bonds, the implementation of loose policies, and the impact of external demand on the macro - economy. The bond market is not bearish in the short - term, and the 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and short - term trading opportunities [80][81]. 3.3 Important Economic Calendar for May The report provides a list of important economic indicators to be released in May and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, PPI, CPI, and PMI [83].

节前下游备库情绪一般，盘面反弹力度较弱 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 煤焦周度报告 20250428 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 宏观情绪主导，节前预计震荡走势；现货二轮提涨开启，暂未落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭供应回升明显 | | | 需求 | 铁水加速回升，钢厂刚需采购为主；投机情绪一般，出口利润下滑，建材现货成交量仍偏低 | | | 库存 | 钢厂刚需采购，焦企略降库，总库存微降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭盘面利润震荡运行 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差略走强 | | | 总结 | 上周中美贸易摩擦预期反复摇摆，美方态度反复，中方否认开启谈判，加之节前下游备库情绪一般，双焦反弹力度偏弱。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨 0.87%至1566，焦煤09合约涨0.37%至956。焦炭方面，二轮提涨开启，焦企开工延续小幅回升。需求方面，铁水加速回升，短期 ...

| 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 焦炭 | 准一级冶金焦 | 国产 | 1900 | 出厂 | 河南省/郑 | 河南森蒂环保科技有限 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 州市 | 公司VIP | | 焦炭 | 一级3-6mm | 仟越星 | 980元/ | 出厂 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有 | | | | | 吨 | 价 | | 限公司VIP | | 焦炭 | 二级3-6mm | 仟越星 | 1100 | 出厂 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | | 限公司VIP | | | 25-38 | 国产 | 1700 | 市场 | | 河南利维特化工科技有 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 河南省 | 限公司 | | | 准一级冶金焦 | 华晟能 | 1500 | 出厂 | 山西省/运 | 河津市华晟能源有限公 | | | | 源 | 元/吨 | 价 | 城市 | 司 | ...

东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-28 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 政策信号错综复杂，黄金价格大幅震荡 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | 货币属性 | 本周美元指数呈现剧烈震荡走势，周初因特朗普施压美联储降息并质疑其政策独 立性，市场恐慌情绪加剧拖累美指跌至97.923新低。随后特朗普态度转向缓和， | | --- | --- | | | 明确无意解雇鲍威尔并释放贸易摩擦缓和信号，美元指数于周三反弹至99.86。周 | | | 五美元指数微涨0.07%并实现三周来首次周度上行，市场对美联储独立性担忧与政 | | | 策预期差的反复博弈，但美元中长期信用受损及流动性虹吸效应仍令其上行承压。 | | 金融属性 | 周初特朗普炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔加剧市场对货币政策政治 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内再提超常规逆周期调节 美国关税政策高度不确定 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论 中共中央政治局强调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，再提超常规 逆周期调节。4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和 经济工作。会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自 己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。宏观政 策基调方面，会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，对宏观政策 的落地提出一定要求；会议再提超常规逆周期调节。财政政策方面，会议强 调，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。货币政策方面， 会议强调，适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性 金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。后期，基础货币投放， 仍需关注国债买卖、买断式逆回购、新的结构性货币政策工具以及新型政策 性金融工具。由于美国关税政策，我国对外贸易相对承压，人民币短期有贬 值压力；但是，中长期来看，人民币仍然不宜过度贬值。从年内在岸美元兑 人民币走势来看，或以宽幅波动为主，区间或为 7.0 至 ...

Market Performance - Major global markets recorded gains, with Nasdaq up 6.73%, DAX up 4.89%, and S&P 500 rising over 4.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and other indices like CSI 300 and A50 saw more modest increases, with Hang Seng Index up 2.74% [1] A-Share Market - A-share market experienced fluctuations driven by policy dynamics and earnings expectations, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 1.74% weekly gain [2] - Daily average trading volume for the week reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous week [2][6] Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector rose by 3.97%, while the power equipment sector saw a decline of 7.73% [3] - The automotive sector increased by 4.87%, and the beauty care sector rose by 3.8%, indicating strong performance in certain industries [5] Policy Impact - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies, suggesting a potential acceleration in policy implementation to boost market confidence [2] - The G20 meeting highlighted the importance of dialogue and policy coordination, which may enhance financial cooperation between China and the European Central Bank [1] Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus remains on domestic demand sectors, particularly in building materials, smart home appliances, and the hospitality industry, which are expected to benefit from policy upgrades [2]

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 07 锡：基本面平稳，价格震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 01 黄金：震荡回落，多头情绪回吐 白银：风险偏好回升 02 03 铜：美国关税政策扰动市场，寻找与基本面共振的机会 铝：现实不弱，关注微观面施压价格的边际拐点; 氧化铝：继续底部磨盘，考察资金意愿 04 铸造铝合金：短期 ...

在特朗普政府掀起关税战下，美国普通民众的购物正迎来"涨价潮"，连曾经实惠的网购也变得更昂贵了。 继美国亚马逊网站近千种商品涨价后，另外两家来自中国的跨境电商平台SHEIN、拼多多旗下TEMU也已上调了部分在美商品售价。 在4月16日，华尔街见闻就注意到，TEMU、SHEIN均向美国用户发出了涨价通知，称由于最近全球贸易规则和关税的变化，运营成本有所增加，公司将从4月 25日起进行价格调整。 如今4月25日期限一过，调价政策落地，不少美国网友在社交媒体上感叹， 一夜之间购物车里的东西都变贵了。 有人发现，在SHEIN平台上一套4月24日标价为4.39美元的泳装，25日已经涨价至8.39美元，提价幅度达到91%。而在TEMU上列出的两把露台椅，24日标价 为61.72美元，到25日标价已提升至70.17美元。 不过，据华尔街见闻了解，SHEIN、TEMU平台上商品价格上涨还不是普遍现象，或许价格上涨将是一个逐步推进的过程。 除了TEMU、SHEIN外，国际电商巨头亚马逊上的卖家，早就开始了涨价的动作。 根据SmartScout数据，自4月9日以来，美国亚马逊网站上近1000种商品的价格出现明显上涨，涵盖服装、家居 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：震荡回落，多头情绪回吐；白银：风险偏好回升 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间：760-800元/克、7900-8300元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 本周贵金属继续回升，伦敦金%，伦敦回落-0.86%，伦敦银上行3.17%。金银比从前周的103回落至99.5，10年期TIPS回落至2.02%，10年期 名义利率回升至4.29%（2年期3.74%），美元指数录得99.58。 ◆ 4月23日黄金价格骤然反转，外盘黄金回落至3330美元/盎司附近，而内盘则下跌更为剧烈，最低回落至785元/克，内外价差重新收敛，体现 国内投资热情的冷却。尽管黄金长期叙事未变，但从技术指标来看黄金的确已经进入超买区间，特朗普口风反转是逆转趋势 ...

A 股策略周报 20250427 静而不争 2025 年 04 月 27 日 ➢ 衰退预期回摆，风险资产反弹之后又到关键的路口。随着全球衰退预期回摆， 风险资产上行，黄金下跌。但值得关注的是，日股、德股和美股的纳斯达克指数 在经过这一轮反弹修复之后，已经快回到了加征关税之前的位置。基本可以确定 的是无论如何"缓和"，经济的状态也回不到加征关税之前。值得关注的是，相较 于 2018 年，中国对美出口依赖度已明显下降，但美国对中国进口依赖度并未改 善，中国经济将在本轮的博弈中更具韧性。从这个角度而言中国资产在全球范围 内可能更具性价比。从 A 股内部来看，内需+金融板块的大部分股票已经回到加 征关税之前的位置，甚至部分创出新高；另一方面，前期跌得最多的受损板块反 弹较大，但并未创出新高，或许只是有限修复。市场的风险度相较之前已经明显 下降，新的趋势已经开始，中国新的内外需构建工作或许是核心，短期不确定性 的下降并未逆转这一主线。我们认为，中美贸易摩擦"缓和"与否市场都会进入 冷静期：由于前期资本市场是本轮贸易冲击维稳的核心，如果出现缓和，那么前 期对冲板块可能面临压力，市场的维稳力量也会逐步撤出；反之，市场的定价 ...