1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - For treasury bond futures, it is also considered that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and monetary policy is likely to be further loosened. The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume [14]. - In the black market, steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips. The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. For ferroalloys, it is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies; alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate, and industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range [23][26][27]. - In the agricultural products market, for cotton, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy; for sugar, consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines; for eggs, short on rallies for near - month contracts; for apples, go long on dips; for corn, buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract; for red dates, stay on the sidelines; for live pigs, hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical market, for crude oil, hold existing short positions; for fuel oil, its price follows that of crude oil; for plastics, expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation; for rubber, it may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound; for methanol, wait for a rebound to go long; for caustic soda, expect price fluctuations; for asphalt, it follows the price of crude oil; for liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a bearish view in the long - term [41][42][51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry urges the US to correct its wrong actions. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices [8]. - China has achieved key breakthroughs in high - end electronic measurement instruments and filled the gap in high - end electronic design industrial software [8]. - In September 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI rose 1% year - on - year. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year [8]. - In September 2025, China's M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. The increase in RMB loans in the first three quarters was 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan [9]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment has remained stable. A Fed official suggests that the Fed should cut interest rates twice this year [10]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data was in line with expectations, with food and energy prices dragging down CPI. Core CPI continued to rise. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and financial data showed a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increased significantly [12]. - It is recommended to continue the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data is in line with expectations, and financial data shows a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increases significantly [14]. - It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [14]. 3.4 Black Market 3.4.1 Steel - From a macro perspective, Sino - US trade frictions have a negative impact on sentiment, but the impact on actual supply and demand is expected to be small. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [16]. - During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the real demand for steel downstream has improved limitedly, and the inventory of some varieties is high, which may lead to a shock or off - peak market [16]. - Steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips [17]. 3.4.2 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short - term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions [18]. - In the medium - term, the resumption of coking coal supply is hindered. The demand from steel mills for coking coal and coke is strong, but the current inventory level of downstream coking coal and coke is high, and the short - term demand support is weak [18]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly in the fourth quarter, and the cost support of silicomanganese is stronger than that of ferrosilicon. It is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [20]. - The price of ferrosilicon rose significantly during the day but then fell back, mainly due to the influence of the increase in thermal coal prices on sentiment [20]. 3.4.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass industry chain is operating weakly. It is recommended to hold a bearish view on soda ash or take profits in the short - term, and stay on the sidelines for glass [21]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the new production capacity of leading enterprises is expected to be postponed. The supply of glass is affected by the decline in the market, and the inventory of the middle - stream is high [21]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous and New Materials Market 3.5.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies [23]. - The inventory of aluminum is decreasing, and the spot premium is rising. The supply of alumina is in a state of high - opening and high - supply, and the inventory is increasing [23]. 3.5.2 Zinc - The spot trading of zinc in the three major domestic markets is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to hold short positions [24]. - The price of zinc is affected by trade disputes and weak demand. The domestic and overseas markets have different operating logics, and there are signs of a resonance decline in global zinc prices [25]. 3.5.3 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in a state of de - stocking, which supports the current price [26]. - The impact of lithium battery export controls on short - term demand is limited, and the high level of warehouse receipts has limited impact on prices [26]. 3.5.4 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is advisable to sell call options. The recent decline in the price is mainly due to the expected weakening of supply and demand [27]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase in October, but there is also an expected decline in inventory due to the dry season in the southwest, resulting in a loose balance of supply and demand [27]. 3.5.5 Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, which supports the lower space of the futures price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [28]. - The market was affected by rumors of a new cost benchmark for polysilicon on October 15, and the price rebounded due to valuation correction [28]. 3.6 Agricultural Products Market 3.6.1 Cotton - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The upstream - downstream game is complex, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand [30]. - The price of domestic cotton is affected by the international market and the increase in supply, and the demand is uncertain [30][31]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is under pressure [32]. - The price of sugar is affected by supply and cost factors, and the new sugar production is expected to increase [32][33]. 3.6.3 Eggs - Short on rallies for near - month contracts. The inventory of laying hens is high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [34]. - The spot price of eggs has rebounded slightly, and the price may be affected by vegetable prices [34]. 3.6.4 Apples - Go long on dips. The late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions are gradually on the market, and the price in the western region is firm [36]. - Pay attention to the impact of continuous rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [36]. 3.6.5 Corn - Buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The spot price of corn is weak, and the new - season supply is increasing [37]. - The price of corn may be supported by the purchase of the central reserve, and attention should be paid to the harvest and grain quality in North China and the selling intention of farmers [37][38]. 3.6.6 Red Dates - Stay on the sidelines. The market price of red dates is stable, and the consumption is poor, but the opening price is expected to be high [39]. - Pay attention to the opening price of new - season red dates [39]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - Hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand after the double festivals [39]. - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand is weak after the festivals, which drags down the price [39]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Market 3.7.1 Crude Oil - Hold existing short positions. The supply of crude oil is increasing, and the demand is weakening, resulting in a downward trend in the price [41]. - The price of crude oil is affected by API inventory, trade wars, and geopolitical risks, and there may be a price repair in the future [41]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows that of crude oil. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is flat [42]. - The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations, and the price of fuel oil is also affected [42]. 3.7.3 Plastics - Expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak [43]. - It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short, as the current price is slightly low [43]. 3.7.4 Rubber - It may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound. The supply is expected to increase, but it is affected by the NR near - month contract [44]. - The price of rubber is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut signal and the cancellation of NR warehouse receipts [44]. 3.7.5 Methanol - Wait for a rebound to go long. The main contradiction of methanol is the high inventory pressure in ports, and there are also factors such as the impact of winter gas restrictions on production [45]. - The price of methanol is affected by the arrival of Iranian goods in ports, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal process [45]. 3.7.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures is expected to fluctuate. The short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina affect the price [46]. - The spot price of caustic soda has changed, and the price of alumina and liquid chlorine also has an impact on the futures price [46]. 3.7.7 Asphalt - Asphalt follows the price of crude oil. The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations [47]. - The spot price of asphalt has declined, and the demand is in the peak season. Attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed in October [48]. 3.7.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [51]. - The price of LPG is affected by trade wars, OPEC+ production increases, and the peak season for blending oil is over [51]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly. The overall fundamentals lack a clear driving force [50]. - The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, the supply of PTA increases, and the far - month inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：近期国际金价持续攀升，昨日纽约金站上 4200 美元关口，沪金站上 960 元关口。短期中 美贸易摩擦扰动及美国政府持续停摆加速金价上行，金价或持续强于银价，金银比值呈现上行态势。 短期的大幅上涨随之而来的是风险的快速积累，近期黄金日内双向波动明显加剧。短期单边可参考 5 日均线作为短期强弱分水岭 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as trade situations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies [3][6][9][11][14][17][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, copper prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.21% to $10,576/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,160 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined. In the domestic market, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased slightly, and spot premiums and trading volumes varied by region [2] - **Strategy View**: Trump's threat to significantly increase tariffs on China is uncertain. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine production cuts are expected to tighten copper supply in the next two years, and combined with a decrease in domestic refined copper production, the supply - demand relationship strongly supports prices. Short - term copper price decline may be limited. The reference operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 84,400 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $10,450 - $10,750/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and rebounded. LME aluminum 3M contract rose slightly by 0.18% to $2,744/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,885 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts increased. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories changed, and market sentiment was still cautious [5] - **Strategy View**: The Sino - US trade situation is still uncertain. From an industrial perspective, with the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio, seasonal recovery of consumption, and strong exports, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,740 - 21,050 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,720 - $2,770/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,124 yuan/ton. There were changes in LME and SHFE lead inventories, and various price spreads and basis values were reported [8] - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased slightly, and the smelting start - up of primary lead has remained at a high level. The inventory of scrap lead has declined, and although the smelting start - up of recycled lead has increased, it remains at a low level, and lead ingot factory inventory has accumulated. Downstream battery enterprises' holiday time is less than in previous years, and industry data has improved marginally. On October 10, a large number of LME lead inventories were cancelled, increasing the structural risk of LME lead. It is expected that SHFE lead will run strongly in the short term [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.94% to 22,035 yuan/ton. There were changes in LME and SHFE zinc inventories, and various price spreads and basis values were reported. Domestic social inventory increased slightly [10] - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting enterprises continued normal production, and most downstream zinc enterprises maintained normal production. LME zinc registered warrants are still at an absolute low level, and there is still a structural risk. After the zinc ingot export window opened, short - positions on the domestic market were closed, providing short - term support for SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will oscillate at a low level with increased risk fluctuations [11] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 15, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. The smelting start - up rate of refined tin has decreased. Downstream demand is mixed, with some sectors booming and others dragging down demand. Although the traditional peak season has led to marginal improvement in consumption, high tin prices still restrain downstream consumption [13] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance state, and combined with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may remain oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products were stable or slightly changed [15] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but since the previous increase in nickel prices was limited, the impact is relatively small. Recently, nickel iron prices have weakened, and refined nickel inventory pressure is still significant, which may drag down nickel prices. In the long term, US easing expectations, domestic anti - involution policies, and RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed down 0.12% to 72,927 yuan. The LC2601 contract closed at 72,940 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous day [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased again, and inventory has been continuously reduced. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, it is expected to open up upward space for lithium prices. The short - term probability of strong oscillation is high. The reference operating range for the LC2601 contract is 71,880 - 75,280 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 15, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,805 yuan/ton. There were changes in positions, basis, overseas prices, and inventory [22] - **Strategy View**: Ore prices are supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,560 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Spot prices of different products changed slightly, and raw material prices were stable. Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [25] - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, social inventory has significantly accumulated, but terminal consumption is flat, and the market does not show the characteristics of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, which may be related to the pre - consumption caused by the concentrated delivery of previous orders. In the spot market, Qingshan - series products led the decline, driving other varieties to follow suit. Affected by pessimistic expectations, downstream risk - aversion sentiment is strong, and market trading is light. It is expected that the market trend will be weak [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the AD2511 contract rose 0.2% to 20,365 yuan/ton. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and warehouse receipts. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the market trading atmosphere was average [28] - **Strategy View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the delivery pressure on the near - month contract of cast aluminum alloy is still large, putting pressure on the price upside [29]

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.29% and the ChiNext Index down 0.58% [1] - The charging pile sector showed active performance, while rare earth permanent magnets, cultivated diamonds, and humanoid robots experienced significant declines [1] Group 2 - Industrial trends and market conditions remain the core focus for investment strategies, with recommendations to invest in domestic demand sectors such as agriculture, beverages, and brokerage insurance [1] - The upcoming quarterly reports and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence market strategies, emphasizing self-sufficiency and sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Key sectors highlighted include military industry, domestic computing industry chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, North American computing chain, gaming, and batteries [1] Group 3 - Market outlook remains optimistic for the fourth quarter, with expectations for a technology-led rally and potential new highs in sectors like overseas computing, semiconductors, and robotics [2] - The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as crucial for the transition from structural bull to a comprehensive bull market, particularly in solar energy and chemicals [2] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to benefit from global easing and the emergence of new economic trends [2] Group 4 - The probability of continued rebound in stock indices is high, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to steadily approach the 4,000-point mark, while large technology remains the main focus for investment [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base effect and strong external demand, despite a 27.0% decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, indicating a relatively positive signal driven by rising jewelry prices [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to low base effects [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The funding environment is gradually becoming looser, with key rates such as DR001 and DR007 at approximately 1.31% and 1.43% respectively, indicating a balanced but slightly relaxed liquidity situation [4] - The People's Bank of China has injected a net liquidity of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos, reflecting a supportive stance towards market liquidity [4] - Despite a balanced liquidity outlook, expectations for further monetary easing are weak, limiting the potential for further declines in funding costs [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Recent volatility in domestic asset prices is attributed to ongoing uncertainties from US-China trade tensions, although market sentiment has shifted towards optimism compared to April [5] - The necessity for moderate allocation of certain-term government bonds remains to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Overall, holiday consumption data showed moderate growth, external demand remains resilient, and domestic inflation is low, providing support for the bond market [5]

一是市场对美联储降息预期的持续乐观。美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔昨晚表态偏鸽，认为美国就业 市场下行风险仍显著，有迹象表明现实流动性收紧，并表示将暂停缩表。投资者对美联储在10月降息25 个BP的预期接近100%，美联储仍走在降息的道路上。 二是中美贸易摩擦带来的不确定性。上周五晚间，特朗普宣布将对中国商品征收100%的关税，但市场 普遍认为这是特朗普在谈判前的一种施压手段，因此进行了一轮"TACO"(特朗普总是退缩)交易。然 而，我国商务部针对美国对华造船等行业发起的"301调查"采取了相应的反制措施，这引发了投资者的 一定恐慌情绪。在月底贸易磋商之前，中美贸易关系仍存在较大的不确定性。 三是政治经济不稳定性事件频发支撑金价上行。美国两党僵局持续，联邦政府停摆已进入第三周，美元 信用受到冲击。同时，法国、日本政局再现波动，加上印尼东部骚乱、尼泊尔政局动荡、阿根廷经济问 题以及俄乌冲突难解等事件，持续冲击国际旧秩序。 10月15日，国际金价稳步上涨，盘中站上4200美元/盎司大关。截至记者发稿，伦敦金现报4192.84美元/ 盎司，日内涨1.24%，盘中最高触及4218.13美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 | 伦 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of the recurrence of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Treasury bond prices are affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver prices may fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to continuous disturbances in copper - mine supply and improved macro - liquidity, despite the suppression from global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to have limited downward space as they approach the cost line, although the fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces callback risks due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and repeated risk - aversion sentiment. Zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. in the non - ferrous sector are affected by various factors such as trade uncertainties, policy changes, and inventory levels, and their prices are expected to fluctuate or be under pressure in the short term [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil, soybean oil, and other varieties are affected by factors such as policies, reports, and inventory, and their prices have different trends. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and tariff policies, with different price trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, the upward space is limited [1]. - Gold: Prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Despite trade - friction suppression, prices are expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited as it approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Faces short - term pressure, but the opening of the export window may support the domestic price if the LME inventory continues to decline [1]. - Nickel: Prices are mainly affected by the macro - situation in the short term, with high - inventory pressure. Short - term trading is recommended, and there is still pressure from primary - nickel surplus in the long term [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is a risk of callback in the non - ferrous sector, but there are still opportunities to go long at low levels in the long term due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Black metals - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, the short - term is in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Coking coal: The price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but it is not suitable to chase short positions for now [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The Indonesian B50 policy may have a negative impact on near - month contracts, and the MPOB September report is expected to support prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The reduction of raw materials and oil - mill压榨 reduction support the price due to factors such as China's rare - earth export restriction and the expected reduction of US soybean ending stocks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: There is no new driving force, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term with the new - cotton listing [1]. - Sugar: The original - sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels in the domestic market [1]. - Corn: New - season corn is under selling pressure, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1]. - Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and US tariff threats [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan's construction rush is likely to be falsified [1]. - Rubber: Affected by factors such as US tariffs, supply increase, and weak market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The raw - material fundamentals are loose, and the downstream trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The domestic production has decreased due to unit maintenance [1]. - Ethylene glycol: The port inventory is low, but the price is under pressure due to imports and device commissioning [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and there is support at the cost end [1]. - PF: The price fluctuates strongly due to factors such as reduced market - price center and increased downstream demand [1]. - PVC: The price fluctuates weakly due to factors such as reduced maintenance and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Calcined alumina: The short - term price is bearish, and the medium - term is bullish [1]. - LPG: The upward momentum is limited due to factors such as OPEC production increase and high domestic inventory [1]. Shipping - Container shipping (European line): The price may rebound at a low level, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions, particularly the introduction of "Tariff 2.0," which has led to significant market volatility across various asset classes, with risk assets declining and safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries rising [4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Tariff 2.0, major risk assets such as US stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and Bitcoin experienced sharp declines, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries saw price increases [4]. - The performance of various assets during the two rounds of tariff imposition shows significant declines, with the S&P 500 index dropping by 12.1% during the first round and 2.7% during the second round, while gold prices increased by 1.1% in the second round [5]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper market is currently experiencing wide fluctuations due to tight supply from copper mines and declining demand expectations driven by the trade war, leading to increased market risk aversion [6]. - Recent disruptions in copper mining operations, including Teck Resources lowering its 2025 production target and Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine facing production halts due to flooding, have contributed to supply concerns [10]. - Over 25% of global copper supply, approximately 6.4 million tons, is hindered by ESG-related issues, with significant production impacts in countries like Peru, the US, and Chile [10]. Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices have surged by 50% year-to-date, reflecting a growing distrust in the US dollar as a store of value, while silver has seen a monthly increase of over 20% [6]. - The rising prices of gold and silver are indicative of a broader market trend where investors seek hard assets as a hedge against economic uncertainty [9]. Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, copper production is expected to reach around 1.14 million tons in October, with import expectations adjusted down to 280,000 to 290,000 tons due to limited supply from major producing countries [12]. - The mindset of downstream enterprises has shifted, with a higher psychological price point that may support copper prices moving forward [13]. Group 5: Sulfuric Acid Market - Domestic copper smelting enterprises are currently undergoing maintenance, leading to lower sulfuric acid production, which may keep sulfuric acid prices elevated [14]. - The high sulfur price, coupled with ongoing maintenance in smelting facilities, suggests that sulfuric acid will continue to be a significant profit contributor for smelting companies [14]. Group 6: Strategic Outlook - The escalation of US-China trade tensions is viewed as tactical, with ongoing negotiations expected to influence market behavior in the coming weeks [15]. - For copper, the strategy of buying on dips is recommended, allowing companies to manage price fluctuations effectively [16].

陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 油脂周度行情观察 10月10日，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布9月供需报告。其中，当月产量为184.12万吨（-0.73%），出口量为142.76万吨 （+7.69%），国内消费为33.35万吨（-33.21%），库存为236.10万吨（+7.20%）。产量和库存均高于市场预期，出口有所改 善。报告影响偏空，棕榈油价格回落。 印尼B50政策消息发酵。印尼正加快推进到2026年全面实施B50生物柴油计划，能源部透露，B50燃料的实验室测试已于8月完 成，接下来将进入道路测试阶段。数据显示，若全面实施B50，每年将需要约2010万千升棕榈油基生物燃料。市场对于未来 棕榈油供应收紧有所担忧。 美豆持续收获，受中美贸易摩擦影响，中国仍未采购美豆而是转向南美大豆，美豆供应压力增加。10月1日美国政府停摆,受 此影响USDA月度供需报告、出口销售数据等关键信息暂停发布，市场缺乏指引，同时政府对农民的补贴政策推迟。 根据CONAB数据，截至10月11日当周，巴西2025/2026年度大豆种植率为11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming CINE2025 Solid-State Battery Exhibition and the implications of new U.S. tariffs on the lithium battery industry, highlighting the challenges and strategic shifts faced by Chinese companies in the global market [2][3][4]. Event Overview - The CINE2025 Solid-State Battery Exhibition will take place from November 6-8, 2025, at the Guangzhou Nansha International Convention Center, featuring over 200 exhibitors and 20,000 professional attendees [2]. - The event will include the 2025 Qidian Solid-State Battery Golden Award Ceremony and the SSBA Solid-State Battery Industry Alliance Council [2]. Tariff Implications - On October 9, 2023, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on dual-use items, effective November 8, 2025 [3]. - Starting November 1, 2023, the U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on lithium batteries, which, combined with existing tariffs, could lead to a total tariff exceeding 140.9% [4]. - By January 1, 2026, the "301" tariff is expected to rise from 7.5% to 25%, resulting in a total tariff of 158.4% [4]. Market Reactions - The article notes that the current tariff threats are perceived as a strategy of "extreme pressure," with uncertainty regarding their actual implementation [4]. - The U.S.-China trade relationship has seen significant fluctuations, with various rounds of tariff increases and negotiations throughout 2025 [4][5][6]. Industry Trends - Despite the challenges, Chinese companies are actively seeking new markets in Australia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America to mitigate risks associated with the U.S. market [9]. - Currently, U.S. orders account for less than 2% of Chinese companies' total orders, indicating a shift in focus towards other regions [9]. - The strategic move by Tesla to partner with LG Energy for lithium iron phosphate batteries signals a potential reduction in collaboration opportunities for Chinese battery manufacturers in the U.S. market [8]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the need for the Chinese energy storage industry to accelerate technological upgrades and global expansion to maintain a competitive edge in the face of increasing tariffs and geopolitical tensions [9].