关税政策再生变数，叠加资金面宽松，债市震荡回暖 ——利率债周报（2025.5.26-2025.6.1） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 利率债周报 一、上周市场回顾 时间 2025 年 6 月 3 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市震荡回暖，长债收益率明显下行。上周（5 月 26 日当 周），基金等机构赎回压力、存单价格走高、美国法院"叫停" 特朗普关税等因素对债市造成利空扰动，但在资金面宽松以及 上周五美国上诉法院暂时恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策提振下， 债市整体震荡回暖，长债收益率明显下行。短端利率方面，尽 管上周央行持续净投放支撑资金跨月无忧，但债市短端利率下 行动力不足，整体小幅上行，收益率曲线趋于平坦化。 本周（6 月 2 日当周）债市料将震荡偏暖。从基本面来看，虽 然 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5，但仍处于收缩区间，显示 关税政策带来的外部压力犹存。从资金面来看，尽管本周逆回 购到期量大，但适逢月初资金较为充裕，资金面大概率将维持 宽松格局。同时考虑到中美贸易摩擦不确定性再度攀升，俄乌 冲突进一步升级，市场避险情绪快速升温，预 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **monetary policy**, and the **impact of US-China trade relations** on the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Relations**: The uncertainty in US-China trade relations continues to affect domestic monetary policy and market sentiment. Although there has been a short-term easing, the long-term trend of decoupling remains unchanged, necessitating attention to potential policy tools from the Trump administration [1][2][15][17]. 2. **Manufacturing Policy**: China emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as a core policy, with incremental policy layouts focused on this sector. Despite a recovery in the first quarter, internal stability is lacking, and effective demand remains weak, indicating a need for continued fiscal support [1][4][30]. 3. **Monetary Policy Trends**: The central bank's monetary policy is showing a trend towards fiscal characteristics, with a potential tightening approach. Structural monetary policies are increasingly reflecting fiscal traits, and there may be a window for increased fiscal funding this year [1][7][8]. 4. **Market Interest Rates**: Current market interest rates have adjusted more significantly than policy rates, indicating an upward risk in interest rates. From early 2024 to now, policy rates have adjusted by 45 basis points, while market rates have adjusted by approximately 80 basis points [8][12]. 5. **Stock Market Opportunities**: Changes in fiscal direction present opportunities in the stock market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors. There is a trend of equity replacing debt in financing, with a focus on leading technology firms and inclusive consumption sectors [9][10][29]. 6. **Debt Market Outlook**: The outlook for the debt market in June suggests a potential rebound if the current liquidity conditions persist. Historical trends indicate that interest rates generally decline in June, and the market should be monitored for data changes around mid-June [16][20]. 7. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact**: The current macroeconomic policy is cautious and conservative, primarily aimed at stabilizing the economy. The easing of export-related pressures due to improved US-China relations may lead to slight short-term economic improvements [30][34]. 8. **RMB Internationalization**: The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a long-term strategy for China, with potential new policies expected to be announced at the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum. These policies aim to facilitate cross-border settlement and enhance the RMB's global use [32][33][34][35]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Government Debt and Market Rates**: Government debt levels are expected to peak in June, but the central bank's supportive measures are likely to mitigate significant negative impacts on interest rates [25]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: The recommendation is to adopt a bullish strategy in the short term, focusing on opportunities that may arise in June, particularly as the market adjusts to the end of the export peak [26][27]. 3. **Sector Focus**: Key sectors to watch include new consumption and pharmaceuticals, large state-owned enterprises undergoing mergers and acquisitions, and traditional core assets represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the ongoing dynamics in the Chinese economy and the implications of US-China trade relations on various sectors and policies.

本文叙述皆有官方信源，为了读者有更好的体验放在了文章后缀，感谢您的支持！ 早在上个月中美高层代表团就关税问题，在访问瑞士期间进行接触。 并达成了美方全面让步的临时共识时起，就有很多国内网友担心以特朗普政府出尔反尔毫无契约精神的行事 作风，在90天的窗口期结束后未必会老老实实的达成合理的贸易协定。 甚至还有不少人干脆认为，特朗普政府压根就不会等到窗口期满就会变卦翻脸，将之前谈判桌上做出的妥协 让步全部收回。 所谓的中美临时共识即取消四月二号之后，双方额外增加的全部关税的中美临时共识，不过只是特朗普政府 为了平息美国内外紧张局势的缓兵之计。等到美国各大企业和厂商库存重新充盈之后，绝对会重新挑起争 端。 对此我们当时也做出了大量相应的分析，事实上这些年来与美国政府尤其是特朗普政府的交锋，我国高层当 然熟知对方毫无契约精神的无耻本性。 针对正式贸易协定落实前的窗口期，美国可能做出的种种小动作，也早早就预留了直击特朗普政府要害的后 手。 对于稀土矿产的重要性，之前我们也已经聊过很多次了。作为当下高端工业必不可少的核心矿产之一，稀土 元素直接决定了医疗、航天、军工、交通、工程机械等等各个领域的质量和产量。 去年美国主力战 ...

第二项措施是针对大型飞机发动机的管控。对此，我们的影响相对较小，因为我们早已为此做好了相关 准备。虽然我们选择使用国外发动机来满足欧盟和美国的适航标准，但实际上，我们的自产发动机已经 在运20上进行了良好测试，而进口发动机的库存也足够再用至少两年，因此这项限制并不会造成根本性 的影响。 第一，针对中国留学生的措施。准备对赴美留学生的签证进行取消，这将对已经在美国的学子们造成很 大的影响。毕竟他们在美国的学习和生活投入了大量的金钱和精力，转而去其他知名高校的选择，虽然 有人提到香港的两所世界排名前百的大学愿意接纳他们，但终究也会面临适应新环境的挑战。 然而，从长远来看，这或许并非坏事，毕竟绝大多数赴美留学的学生都是极具才华的人才。根据统计数 据，许多留学生毕业后选择留在美国，为美国贡献他们的智慧，而现在这些人才有可能会为国内的发展 贡献力量。 然而，半导体设计领域的禁令则显得尤为棘手。若这一禁令得到严格执行，将不仅影响先进制程的研 发，甚至连传统制程芯片的优化设计也会遭殃。在这种情况下，一些设计公司不得不转向开源架构，虽 然这并非最佳解决方案，但也是无奈之举。近期，有消息称华为开始着手研发EDA软件，若华为能够 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the situation of the trade war was uncertain, causing the bond market to fluctuate. With a loose funding environment and the overnight interest rate dropping back to 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the week. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - For the 30-year treasury bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economy in April still showed resilience. The estimated year-on-year GDP growth rate in April was about 4.1%, a 0.8% decline from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. In terms of inflation, the CPI in April was -0.1% and the PPI was -2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent easing of Sino-US trade frictions and the dissipation of investors' pessimistic expectations, the short-term focus will shift to the domestic economic data of the second quarter. It is expected that as the policy support effect weakens, the bond yield is more likely to decline. However, the current term spread of the 30-year treasury bond is still low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - For the 20-year CDB bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economic situation in April was similar to that of the 30-year treasury bond. It is also expected that the bond yield will decline as the policy support effect weakens. However, the current variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is still low, providing limited protection [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, due to the uncertain trade war situation and a loose funding environment with the overnight interest rate at 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The trading activity increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: As analyzed above for the 30-year treasury bond and 20-year CDB bond [2][3]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of May 31, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds was low, totaling 117.7 billion yuan, a significant decrease compared to the week before last. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 104.9 billion yuan, and by term, 20-year bonds accounted for 56.5 billion yuan [19]. - **Upcoming Issuance This Week**: The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 108.1 billion yuan, including 71 billion yuan of ultra-long treasury bonds and 37.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a turnover of 903.9 billion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the total bond turnover. Compared to the week before last, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover increasing by 42.2 billion yuan and the proportion increasing by 0.2% [28][29]. - **Yield**: Affected by the trade war and the funding environment, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds had different changes, such as the 15-year treasury bond yield decreasing by 2BP to 1.85% [36]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, a 6BP increase from the week before last, at the 6% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also widened but was at a low absolute level. The spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 2BP, and the spread between the 20-year railway bond and the treasury bond was 7BP, with changes of 0BP and 2BP respectively from the week before last, at the 2% and 3% quantiles since 2010 [48]. 3.4 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.41 yuan, a decrease of 0.16%. The total trading volume was 408,900 lots (-60,932 lots), and the open interest was 113,500 lots (-15,740 lots), showing a slight decline in both [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong supplementary increase [1] - Silver: Strong oscillation [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing trend of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, and the bull market for gold is far from over. Gold and silver prices are expected to rise, with silver following gold [2][3]. - Due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term with potential for long - term growth [1][5]. - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak, with limited upside potential in the long term [1][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to factors such as inventory and demand [8][9]. - Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound due to supply - demand games [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure because of supply overhang and cost factors [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Tariffs change again, geopolitical situation escalates, and the price of foreign gold rebounds strongly, with domestic gold making up the increase [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump plans to raise steel import tariffs, and the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the bull market for gold is far from over [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term gold, go long on the futures market, and control positions for long - term investment. Silver will follow the upward trend of gold, with a short - term range of [8200, 8450] [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME copper first declined and then rose, and COMEX copper rose by more than 3% [4]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and there are potential risks such as soft squeeze - out of warehouses. The downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai copper may open higher and move higher. It is recommended to go long on dips with light positions. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for LME copper is [9500, 9800] dollars [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME zinc rebounded and rose by more than 2% [6]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, affected by the steel market [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: LME zinc's rebound may drive Shanghai zinc to open higher. In the long term, short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2650, 2780] dollars/ton [7]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling [8]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - trade environment eases. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, and demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to overseas ore disturbances [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For Shanghai aluminum, look for short - term opportunities to short on rebounds, with a range of [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound, and stainless steel is relatively weak [10]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The cost support for nickel weakens, and the supply pressure is obvious. Stainless steel is entering the off - season, and inventory pressure may reappear [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, with a range for nickel of [118000 - 125000] [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and moved high, with significant position reduction and rebound [11]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply is in surplus. The upstream smelters have high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies, with a range of [59240 - 61000] [12].

Group 1 - The relationship between China and the US has deteriorated significantly since Trump's administration, with trade wars and pressures in technology and education failing to yield desired results for the US [1][9] - A recent phone call between US Deputy Secretary of State Rand Paul and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu indicates a willingness to maintain communication, which is seen as a positive signal despite no breakthroughs in trade negotiations [7][9] - The US has maintained high tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has implemented countermeasures, including restrictions on rare earth exports, demonstrating its resolve in trade disputes [11][15] Group 2 - Trump's initial confidence in winning the trade war has waned, as he expected China to reach out first, but it was the US that initiated the recent communication [5][13] - The recent phone call symbolizes a shift in the economic competition, suggesting that the balance of power may be tilting in favor of China [17] - Trump's recent policies, including tax reforms that eliminate clean energy subsidies, may inadvertently benefit China by increasing market opportunities in traditional energy sectors [24][27] Group 3 - The US's recent educational policy changes, particularly the ban on international students at Harvard, could lead to a talent drain from the US to China, as many students may seek opportunities elsewhere [30][38] - The acknowledgment of the US's declining global dominance by Vice President Mike Pence reflects a broader recognition of the changing international landscape, with challenges from countries like China and Russia [45][53] - The US's interventionist foreign policy is being questioned, and there is a call for a shift in strategy to address current global challenges effectively [55][57]

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].

文/高歌 李力是一家贸易企业的负责人，他的公司位于华南区域，主营业务是向美国等发达经济体市场出口消 费电子产品。不同于To B企业对于关税的敏感度，李力感觉关税摩擦对于他所在的公司影响有限。 5月23日，李力表示：" 关税 在我们的成本中只占一小部分 ， B端的模式是国外的人来这里大批量 采购货物，再分销给小B，关税提升会有一定的影响，我们是直接做C端的，影响不大。" 李力拆解了成本构成：运费、采购成本、关税以及美国当地的物流费用。其中关税并不占据绝大部 分。 目前关税价格尚未体现在产品的终端售价上，并且在可预期的未来，他所在的行业短时间内关 税提升的价格也不会显现在同类产品的价格之上，除非头部企业开始提价。 40天前，美所谓"对等关税"引发贸易震荡，美对华关税在短时间内接连攀升，一度高达145%。随 后中美日内瓦经贸会谈的落定为此轮关税摩擦摁下暂缓键。 5月12日公布的联合声明显示，美方承诺尽快取消4月8日和9日对华加征的91%非理性高额关税，同 时将34%所谓"对等关税"中24%的部分暂缓90天。 下一步中美经贸谈判迎来缓冲期。 李力在过去一个月的时间中在外贸一线亲历上述转变，他只觉得一切都"太快了"。他 ...