Group 1 - In May, Jiangsu's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to April [1] - From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Jiangsu grew by 5.6%, with a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous four months [1] - The "trade-in" policy has shown significant effects, with related categories such as automobiles, home appliances, 3C digital products, and home goods achieving retail sales of 67.22 billion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of 18.6% [1] Group 2 - Green and smart products maintained rapid growth, with retail sales of new energy vehicles, smartphones, and energy-efficient products increasing by 47.9%, 28.8%, and 91.3% respectively in May [2] - Online retail sales through public networks reached 48.71 billion yuan in May, accounting for 30.9% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 33.5% [2] - From January to May, online retail sales increased by 29.4%, with a growth acceleration of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous four months [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province is accelerating the promotion of trade-in programs for automobiles, home appliances, digital devices, and other consumer goods to enhance domestic circulation and stimulate economic growth [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued a work plan to promote economic sustainability and strengthen domestic circulation [1] - The plan emphasizes the optimization of work processes and the smoothening of recycling channels for trade-in programs [1] - There is a focus on expediting the financial settlement process related to trade-in programs [1] Group 2: Scope of Trade-in Programs - The trade-in initiatives will cover various sectors including automobiles, home appliances, home decoration, electric bicycles, and digital devices [1] - The policy aims to expand the trade-in approach into the service consumption sector as per national directives [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a significant increase, with total online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [4][5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program is expected to see a decline in funding in certain regions, with central government funds being allocated in the third and fourth quarters [6] - South Korea's exports rebounded significantly in the first 20 days of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven mainly by semiconductor exports [9] - The real estate market shows weak performance in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with second-hand housing sales becoming the dominant force [11] - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, reaching $78.9 per barrel, a 24.5% increase since the end of May [14] Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 began on May 13, one week earlier than in 2024, leading to a notable increase in sales driven by government subsidies [4] - Total e-commerce sales during the event reached 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and 3C digital products [5] Old-for-New Subsidy Program - The central government plans to allocate approximately 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program in the second half of the year, with an average monthly usage of around 23 billion yuan [6] South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports in June showed a strong recovery, particularly in semiconductors, which accounted for 22.9% of total exports [9] - Exports to the EU increased by 23.5%, while exports to China saw a slight decline of 1.0% [10] Real Estate Market Trends - The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remains weak, with second-hand homes accounting for 58.2% of sales in major cities [11] - The average weekly transaction area for new homes in major cities was 300,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [11] Crude Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a direct impact on domestic inflation indicators [14]

Core Insights - Nanchang has experienced a vibrant consumption trend in 2023, with a retail sales total of 802.6 billion yuan in Q1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy incentives and the integration of diverse business formats are revitalizing the consumption market in Nanchang, injecting significant momentum into high-quality economic development [2] - The "old for new" policy has significantly boosted the home appliance and digital market, with consumers benefiting from substantial subsidies, making purchases more attractive [4][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old for new" policy has led to over 300 million units of home appliances and digital products being purchased, generating 9.7 billion yuan in consumption and benefiting 2.25 million people [6] - The integration of cultural and tourism elements is transforming consumer experiences, with events like the Bread and Coffee Festival attracting significant foot traffic and sales [9][11] Group 3: Promotional Activities - Nanchang has actively issued consumer vouchers, with over 1.7 million yuan distributed during the May Day holiday, stimulating market participation and enhancing consumer satisfaction [12][14] - The city has organized over 200 promotional activities under the "Le Gou Hong Cheng" series, with a fiscal investment of 82 million yuan, directly driving consumption by over 2.44 billion yuan [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the smart home industry [7][30]. Core Insights - The smart home industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stimulating consumption, particularly through the expansion of the appliance replacement and recycling programs. The integration of advanced technologies such as IoT, AI, and big data is enhancing product innovation and meeting diverse consumer needs. Additionally, the easing of trade tensions with the US is likely to favor Chinese home appliance companies in international markets, while domestic demand is driven by rising living standards and an aging population [5][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the past two weeks (June 7 - June 20, 2025), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.75%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.45%. The smart home index (399996.SZ) decreased by 2.98%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.23 percentage points [1][12]. - Year-to-date (January 1 - June 20, 2025), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.24%, while the smart home index fell by 0.31%, outperforming the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices [12][17]. Industry Policy Tracking - The Guangdong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology is initiating pilot projects for smart elderly care service robots, requiring selected units to validate applications in at least 200 households and 20 community or institutional settings within two years [3][19]. Industry News Tracking - A total of 138 billion yuan in central funds will be allocated to support the appliance replacement program, with significant sales growth reported during the "618" shopping festival due to government subsidies and platform promotions. Haier launched a new brand targeting the elderly, "Haier care," and Midea announced a share buyback plan of up to 10 billion yuan [4][20][24][26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the smart home industry is poised for growth due to supportive policies, technological advancements, and increasing consumer demand driven by demographic changes. The entire smart home supply chain is expected to benefit, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the sector [5][30].

Group 1 - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment Channel marks the connectivity between the Mainland and Hong Kong's rapid payment systems, allowing real-time cross-border remittances for residents [2][3] - As of June 22, the Northbound remittance transaction volume reached approximately 6,900 transactions, with an average transaction amount of about RMB 800, while the Southbound remittance transaction volume was around 19,000 transactions, averaging RMB 3,100 per transaction [2] - The Cross-Border Payment Channel aims to save time and costs for individuals transferring funds between the two regions, facilitating payments for tuition or remittances to friends and family [2] Group 2 - The daily limit for Hong Kong residents using the Cross-Border Payment Channel for Northbound remittances is HKD 10,000, with an annual limit of HKD 200,000, independent of the existing RMB limit [3] - The initial participating institutions include major banks from both the Mainland and Hong Kong, with plans to gradually expand the range of participating institutions [3] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that the Cross-Border Payment Channel enhances the safety, efficiency, and convenience of payment services, supporting the integration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of Chinese manufacturing from "Made in China" to "Created in China," emphasizing the importance of innovation and technology in enhancing value along the "smile curve" [2][4][7]. Group 1: The Smile Curve Concept - The smile curve illustrates the value addition in manufacturing, with technology and branding on the left and right ends, while assembly and manufacturing are in the middle, representing low profit margins [2][3]. - Flattening the smile curve involves achieving both scale and price advantages alongside brand marketing and core technology, a breakthrough that is currently occurring in China [4]. Group 2: Case Study of Print Technology - The article highlights the case of Pantum, which has developed 200,000 patents, establishing a significant barrier to entry in the laser printer market, making it one of the few countries with core technology in this field [13][14]. - Pantum's journey from a consumables company to a major player in the printer market illustrates the importance of independent R&D and the development of a robust supply chain [17][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The shift towards a consumer society is evident, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and addressing the increasingly rational and segmented consumer base [42]. - The "trade-in" model has proven effective, with sales increasing by over 50% during promotional events, demonstrating the impact of targeted marketing strategies [43][51]. Group 4: Innovation and Collaboration - The partnership between Pantum and JD.com has facilitated the development of innovative products tailored to specific market needs, enhancing user experience and driving sales [32][34]. - The integration of technology and service capabilities has become crucial for success, as companies must now respond to consumer demands rather than solely producing based on their capabilities [52][56]. Group 5: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The article concludes that the ability to navigate uncertainties and leverage innovation will determine the success of companies in the evolving market landscape [58][60]. - The ongoing collaboration between manufacturing and internet platforms signifies a trend towards a more integrated approach to product development and consumer engagement [55][56].

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.15%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.93%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.17%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from May, with the demand index also at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.96%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index has slightly increased to 49.76%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 8.6% as of June 21, indicating a weakening in market sentiment[7] - Passenger car retail sales increased by 20% year-on-year for the first half of June, showing improvement compared to the previous month[7] - The government plans to distribute 138 billion yuan in central funds for "trade-in" programs in the third and fourth quarters, which may support consumption in the long term[7] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.02%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[11] - A total of 4.17 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit will mature this month, with only 2.96 trillion yuan issued, suggesting ongoing financing pressure in the banking system[13] - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 200 billion yuan through reverse repos to support liquidity ahead of the quarter-end[13] Risks and Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting stock selection to emphasize alpha over beta, with a focus on distinct individual stock characteristics [2]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a slight decline in investment sentiment, with expectations for a rebound in demand towards the end of June due to increased marketing efforts. The industry is anticipated to enter a seasonal lull in July and August, followed by a surge in new product launches and seasonal sales towards the end of the year [2]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of policies such as trade-in programs and changes in new energy vehicle purchase taxes on the industry [2]. Data Tracking - In April, wholesale passenger car sales reached 2.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. Retail sales for the same month were 1.59 million units, up 6% year-on-year but down 14% month-on-month [4]. - New energy vehicle deliveries from leading companies showed significant growth in May, with BYD delivering 380,000 units (up 15% year-on-year), and Li Auto and Xpeng also reporting substantial increases [4][19]. - The average discount rate in early June rose to 10.6%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous period and a 2.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [4]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index fell by 2.57% this week, ranking 23rd out of 29 sectors. The overall market indices also showed declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% [7][28]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 31, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [28][34].

6 月上半月中美航运量迅速反弹 6 月前 10 日韩国出口回暖 地产销售低位，一二线弱于三线 汽车销量同比抬升，新能源亮眼 01 6月上半月，中美航运量迅速反弹 本期Headline 关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂 全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团队。 随着5月12日中美关税缓和，中美之间贸易往来有所升温，价格率先修复。但航运量安排具有一定 滞后性，一直到六月中美航运量才开始好转。 彭博编制的集装箱出港量（Container Ship Departure）本周均值59.1，较五月最后一周已反弹超 25%。 02 6月前10日，韩国出口回暖 | 月份 | 出口同比 | 美国 | 欧盟 | 中国 | 日本 | 印度 | 越南 | 新加坡 | 中国香港 中国台湾 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/ 06 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 14. 5 | 2.9 | - 5. 9 | 12. 0 | -9.5 ...