政策面转强，转债投资思路有何变化 20250513 摘要 • 哑铃型投资策略：建议关注银行及高红利周期股，同时关注估值端定价的 题材轮动机会，尤其是在内需转向出口导向的结构性市场中，正股择时和 轮动是关键。 • 一揽子金融政策利好银行转债：降准降息虽对资产端价格构成压力，但有 利于信贷投放和结构性货币政策工具的释放，同时险资入市、公募基金考 核调整及管理费率下调等增量资金将推动银行股上涨。 • 中美贸易谈判影响出口型转债：光伏行业的晶澳和天合光能等美洲地区营 收占比高的公司可能受影响，关税窗口期修复或带来反弹机会，需关注企 业应对策略。 • 新能源车结构件业务放量：铭利达调整经营结构，新能源车结构件预计大 幅放量，海外生产基地加速产能释放，有望扭亏为盈，液冷模块与机器人 关节组件业务带来增长机会。 • 磷化工行业景气度维持高位：受益于供给收缩和需求稳定，磷化工行业景 气度较高，但高品位磷矿资源消耗和政策限制导致产能释放滞后，关注具 有磷矿产能扩张的川恒股份。 Q&A 当前宏观经济和政策面对股票市场的影响如何？ 当前宏观经济面和政策面均有转强迹象。整体利空因素进入尾声，政策呵护下， 股票市场投资者情绪进入修复期 ...

南方财经全媒体记者 林汉垚 北京报道 历经三年归母净利润连续下滑的阵痛，新华保险在董事长杨玉成主导的"做长、做深、做宽"投资策略驱 动下，于2024年实现归母净利润逆势翻盘，同比激增201.1%至262.29亿元。2025年一季度，新华保险复 苏态势仍在延续，其归母净利润58.82亿元，同比增长19.02%。 通过举牌高股息医药股、银行股及布局私募基金等动作，2024年新华保险综合投资收益率提升至 8.5%，资产端改革成效显著。 与此同时，负债端以"XIN一代"计划为核心的渠道重塑和分红险、养老金业务的产品转型同步发力，一 季度长期险首年保费同比猛增149.6%，双线突围的战略框架已然成型。 一改归母净利润三连降颓势 据了解，新华保险归母净利润曾连续三年下降。2021年到2023年间，新华保险归母净利润分别是149.47 亿元、98.22亿元、87.12亿元。 直至2024年，新华保险才扭转归母净利润的下滑趋势，2024年，新华保险实现归母净利润262.29亿元， 同比增长201.1%。到了2025年，新华保险归母净利润依然保持良好增长态势，一季度末，新华保险归 母净利润58.82亿元，同比增长19.02%。 ...

Core Insights - The report titled "ETF Industry on Overdrive: Shifting Gears, Breaking New Barriers" highlights the rapid acceleration and transformation of the global ETF industry, based on insights from over 600 professional investors managing more than $1.1 trillion in ETF assets [1][2] - Philippe Malaise, CEO of Trackinsight, emphasizes that ETFs are driving a global financial transformation focused on clarity, innovation, and investment opportunities [1] - Travis Spence from J.P. Morgan Asset Management indicates that 2025 will mark the era of active ETFs, with over 90% of respondents planning to maintain or increase their allocation to active ETFs [2] ETF Adoption Trends - Investors primarily choose ETFs for diversification, cost-effectiveness, and trading convenience, with performance, fees, liquidity, and issuer reputation being key selection criteria [3] - The usage of active ETFs is on the rise, benefiting from lower fees and higher transparency compared to mutual funds, with nearly 70% of respondents planning to increase their allocation to active ETFs in the next six months [3] - In fixed income, corporate and government bond ETFs are preferred, with 80% of investors planning to increase their allocation to active fixed income ETFs [3] - Theme-based ETFs are used for diversification and long-term strategic investments, with over half of respondents planning to increase their investment in thematic ETFs [3] - ESG ETFs are chosen based on personal beliefs and environmental concerns, with over half of European respondents indicating plans to increase their allocation to active ESG strategies [3] - Cryptocurrency ETFs are used primarily for risk diversification and long-term value growth, with nearly 60% of respondents planning to increase their allocation [3] - Income and options strategies remain popular, with about 60% of respondents expecting to increase investments in covered call and buffered products [3] Role of Financial Indices - Financial indices are increasingly being utilized by institutional investors as powerful tools for innovation within the ETF industry, as stated by Robert Ross from S&P Dow Jones Indices [4]

策略研究 / 2025.05.12 关税缓和下全球风险偏好回暖 一全球股市立体投资策略周报 本报告导读: 1上周全球股市基本收平,结构上金融、可选消费、能源表现领先, 风险偏好普遍回暖。2海外流动性边际转紧,全球央行降息预期延 后。3从经济景气预期看,美国、欧洲边际改善,中国继续抬升。 投资要点: | 吴信坤(分析师) | | --- | | 021-38676666 | | S0880525040061 | | 陈菲(分析师) | | 021-38676666 | | S0880525040127 | 比下降。从投资者情绪看,港股方面,上周港股卖空占比较前周环 比下降,处于历史高位;美股方面,上周 NAAIM 经理人持仓指数 较前周环比上升,处于历史偏高位。从波动率看,上周港股、美股、 欧股、日股波动率均下降。从估值看,上周发达市场整体估值较前 周下降,新兴市场整体估值较前周提升。 参研究报 因欧洲关税冲击缓和、4月经济数据偏强提振预期;花旗中国经济 意外指数从 44.1 升至 50.5,为 23年5月以来最高水平,受益于政 策发力与中美谈判顺利。 目录 | 1. 全球市场:上周全球风险偏好出现回升 | | ...

一、农产品板块综述 棉花暴涨，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，后续或有利于纺 织品出口，同时国内宏观利好，加之棉花库存下降，皆支撑棉花期价 大幅走高，期价转入上行趋势。白糖劲升，受外盘上涨提振，国内白 糖产销两旺，4 月销糖率创 25 年来同期最高，加之消费旺季来临， 支撑糖价反抽，走势或转强。生猪下挫，存栏高位，大猪出栏增多， 供应压力增大，而猪肉需求平淡，加之替代品充足，生猪期价承压走 低，后市有望持续下行趋势。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棉花：暴涨 焦点关注：棉花主力 2509 合约在上周稳健反弹的基础上，周一 暴涨，期价受到中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展的利好提振： 1. 中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识， 并取得实质性进展，利多提振棉花大幅上涨，若中美达成关税协议， 或有助于纺织品出口增加。加之国内宏观利好，央行降准降息，皆提 振市场情绪。另外进口棉花维持低位，国内港口库存下降至 6 个月低 点，亦对期价有支撑。 棉花暴涨、白糖劲升 2.目前纺织品行业淡季到来，纺企新增订单量萎缩，成品库存增 加，纺企开机稳中有降，纺企对棉花需求以刚需为主，关注后续纺企 订单变化以及开工情况。棉花期 ...

基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于"盈利效 应"的影响，钢厂产能释放力度小幅增强，铁水产量小幅增加， 而品种产量表现不一。需求端：由于受到季节性天气的影响，各 品种市场成交表现参差不一。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳中下 滑，废钢价格稳中下滑，焦炭价格维持稳定，生产成本支撑力度 再度走弱。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权 策略：宽跨式盘整 钢材期货周度报告 2025年05月12日 库存开始累积 钢价震荡偏弱 摘 要： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡偏弱，全国螺纹钢均价环比下 跌40元/吨。节后受宏观政策提振，市场推涨情绪转浓，但终端 需求跟进不足，商家出货压力较大，随后各地市场价格整体下 挫。对于下周，由于钢坯接单量转弱，钢厂转产螺纹意愿增强， 而需求持续性不佳，库存去化节奏放缓，基本面压力逐步显现。 钢材期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周钢材价格震荡偏弱，全国螺纹钢均价环比下跌40元/吨。节后受宏观政策提振，市场推涨情绪转浓，但终 端需求跟进不足，商家出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the U.S. stock market and the strategies investors are considering to hedge against potential shocks, particularly in light of uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies [1]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Investor Strategies - Despite a calming of volatility in April, investors are preparing for sudden market shocks, similar to those experienced in the past [1]. - Derivatives strategists suggest that while periodic option selling from income-focused ETFs may suppress overall volatility, short-term shocks will continue to occur [1]. - Investors are weighing their preferences between Gamma and Vega strategies for hedging against market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 2: Gamma vs. Vega Strategies - Gamma represents a strategy focused on short-term options to capitalize on intraday volatility, while Vega pertains to long-term contracts benefiting from market turbulence [2]. - Data from Bloomberg indicates that short-term options were the biggest winners in April, but if the market retraces to previous lows, extreme volatility may not be repeated [2]. - Analysts expect a gradual repricing of the market driven by weak future guidance, indicating a low-volatility bear market [2]. Group 3: Alternative Hedging Tools - VKO (Volatility Knock Out) options are gaining popularity as a speculative method to short stocks or volatility, offering a cheaper alternative to standard options [3]. - Hedge funds have actively engaged in VKO during recent market declines to secure better entry points, emphasizing the importance of timing in establishing positions [3]. - Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) are also being considered for hedging, with a mixed approach potentially being more effective given the varied performance of these strategies during April's volatility [3]. Group 4: Cost Trends and Market Outlook - Trading costs have returned to levels seen at the end of March, providing a favorable environment for hedgers [5]. - Analysts predict that earnings downgrades and valuation compression will lead to a gradual decline in U.S. stocks, testing lows expected in 2025 [5]. - The article notes that while sudden news shocks previously defined market declines, the next downturn is anticipated to be a slow erosion rather than a sharp sell-off [5].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着华北、东北地区豆粕现货价格整体稳中偏弱，豆粕期货窄幅震荡。豆粕现货基差加速回落 至 200，市场情绪明显转弱。伴随着进口大豆大量到港预期逐步落地，5 月后的国内供应压力逐渐体现。但 由于饲料企业物理库存偏低，后期仍存补库需求，短期豆粕库存尚未迎来拐点，油厂豆粕累库预计将出现 在 5 月下旬。短期豆粕期价维持区间震荡。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 12 日 股指期货：风偏支撑，行情偏强 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： ● 短线策略。短线回调做多。日内交易频率可参照 1 分钟和 5 分钟 K 线图，同时 IF、IH、IC、IM 止损位和止盈位可参照 76 点/95 点、58 点/31 点、66 点/121 点、84 点/142 点去设定。 ● 趋势策略。多单持有。预计 IF 主力合约 IF2505 核心运行区间 3625 和 3812 点；IH 主力合约 IH2505 核心运行区间 2578 和 2697 点；IC 主力合约 IC2505 核心运行区间 5317 和 5673 点；IM 主力合 约 IM2505 核心运行区间 5537 和 5910 点。 ● 跨品种策略。空 IF（或 IH）多 IC(或 IM)的策略持有。 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场回升。一方面，五一假期间外盘走势平稳，未出现黑天鹅，市场风险 偏好维持积极。另一方面，5 月 7 日国新办发布会央行发布了 10 项货币政策，涉及到量、价，包含总量 和结构性货币工具的方方面面。部分工具如 ...

Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced stable revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, while total profit decreased by 8.9% to 946.5 billion yuan [11][12] - The report highlights that leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly those with efficient management, have shown better-than-average performance in terms of net profit and operating cash flow [3][8] - The anticipated release of new models and the impact of local consumption promotion policies are expected to support a gradual recovery in automotive company performance in Q2 2025 [3][12] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the automotive industry generated a total revenue of 10.65 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.4% year-on-year growth, while total profit fell by 9.1% to 462.26 billion yuan [11][12] - The Q1 2025 revenue for the automotive industry was 2.40 trillion yuan, with a profit total of 946.5 billion yuan, indicating a continued decline in profitability [11][12] Profitability Comparison - The profitability of passenger vehicle companies showed significant differentiation in Q1 2025, with some companies like BYD and Seres maintaining strong growth, while others like GAC Group and JAC Motors faced challenges [17][18] - In 2024, the overall profit margin for the automotive industry was 12.4%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, and further decreased to 12.1% in Q1 2025 [12][27] Inventory Management - Inventory levels in the automotive sector showed improvement for bus and parts companies, while passenger vehicle companies faced slight increases in turnover pressure [8][12] - By the end of Q1 2025, the inventory of the automotive industry accounted for 20.9% of current assets, a 1.2 percentage point increase year-on-year [8][12] Cash Flow Analysis - The overall cash flow in the automotive industry faced pressure, with the net cash flow from operating activities for the vehicle sector turning negative at -22.19 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [8][12] - The cash flow for parts companies showed a decline, with a total of 123.05 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 1.4% year-on-year [8][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading automotive companies and those involved in the Huawei and Xiaomi supply chains, as well as companies in the humanoid robot and intelligent driving sectors [3][8] - Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, and several parts manufacturers such as New Spring Co., Silver Wheel Co., and Top Group [3][8]