Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn amid global market declines, with the ChiNext index falling over 1% and more than 4,000 stocks declining [1][2][4] Market Performance - A-shares showed resilience compared to significant declines in US and Japanese markets, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 3% and Nikkei 225 over 4% [5] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.2 trillion, with defensive sectors like precious metals, electricity, and banking rising against the trend, while sectors like photovoltaic and brokerage faced significant declines [4] Impact of Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump's upcoming announcement of a large-scale tariff plan, referred to as "liberation day," is expected to create volatility in global markets, affecting A-shares [8] - Analysts predict that the short-term pressure on A-shares will be significant, but the medium to long-term outlook remains resilient due to improved fundamentals and policy support [8][9] Sector Analysis - Industries with high export exposure, such as textiles, home appliances, and automotive parts, are likely to face significant impacts from the tariff plan [9] - Conversely, sectors like agriculture (due to high import dependence) and military (due to geopolitical uncertainties) may benefit from the situation [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the short term, considering increasing holdings in gold and high-dividend sectors while avoiding high-leverage technology stocks [9] - In the medium term, opportunities may arise in AI applications, consumer recovery, and domestic alternatives such as domestic chips and military sectors [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings disclosure period in April is expected to see rapid style rotation in the market, with a focus on performance, dividends, and value [10][13] - The correlation between stock prices and earnings is anticipated to be strongest during this period, making it crucial for investors to pay attention to fundamentals [10][13] Sector Outlook - Three main directions are highlighted for investment based on earnings forecasts: 1. **Cyclical sectors** such as non-ferrous metals and engineering machinery are expected to show strong performance [15] 2. **Technology growth sectors** like SOC, semiconductor equipment, and memory interface chips are projected to have high earnings certainty [16][19] 3. **Dividend sectors** are expected to maintain stable growth, making them suitable for long-term investment [20]

Group 1 - A50ETF Huabao (159596) achieved a trading volume of 67 million yuan with a turnover rate of 5.46%, ranking first among its peers [1] - The market is gradually focusing on high-performance, dividend, and low-volatility stocks as it approaches the earnings season in April [2] - There is an expectation for a rotation towards low-priced, high-performance stocks with strong earnings improvement potential [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in April, particularly in the first half, due to various internal and external disturbances [3] - Domestic macro policy expectations may shift due to an important meeting at the end of April, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy support [3] - Investment strategies should target sectors that have lagged behind, are undervalued, and have potential policy catalysts [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: stable banks and insurance with long-term strategic value, consumer sectors supported by policy, and metals with economic support [4] - A50ETF Huabao (159596) and its off-market linked funds (Class A 021216/Class C 021217) are recommended for investment [5] - MACD golden cross signals indicate positive momentum for certain stocks [6]

Group 1 - The market is transitioning from "speculating on expectations" to "verifying performance," with a focus on the upcoming Q1 earnings reports, particularly in April, which is historically a month with strong correlation to fundamental performance [2][20][25] - A recovery in revenue and profit growth is anticipated for Q1, with industrial profits showing signs of improvement, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery [6][25][27] - The performance of small-cap indices is expected to follow historical patterns, with a focus on fundamentals after April [3][22] Group 2 - Economic cycle assets are showing signs of marginal improvement, with structural recovery in certain sectors such as non-ferrous metals and engineering machinery, despite a lack of broad-based recovery [8][29][38] - The banking sector is expected to face pressure on interest margins, while non-bank financials may see negative growth due to high base effects from the previous year [39] - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in the liquor segment, while the tourism sector remains robust [39] Group 3 - The technology sector is expected to maintain high growth, with specific focus on SOC, semiconductor equipment, and optical modules, driven by demand in IoT and AI applications [11][42][45] - The sentiment in the technology sector has returned to a safe zone, providing opportunities for re-entry into growth stocks [42][47] - The export chain is anticipated to perform well during the earnings season, with specific attention on sectors like electric tools and home appliances [15][49][51] Group 4 - Stable value assets are projected to maintain steady growth, with dividends expected to remain a reliable long-term investment [17][56] - The public utility sector is expected to show stable earnings, supported by rigid supply and utility characteristics [17][56] - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes increasing in major cities [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see a narrowing decline in revenue for 2024, with profit growth returning to positive territory. The decline in net interest margin is better than that of peers [1][20] - Wealth management capabilities are strong, with steady growth in retail customer base. Overall asset quality remains stable, although risks in retail loans are still emerging [1][20] - For 2025, retail demand is anticipated to marginally improve, with plans to increase loan growth to 7%-8%. While net interest margin pressure persists, the decline is expected to narrow, and fee income is projected to perform better than last year [1][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 337.49 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, significantly better than the 2.9% decline in the first three quarters [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [4] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.95%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1 basis point [2][13] Asset Quality - The company’s asset quality appears stable, but the non-performing loan generation rate continues to rise, particularly in retail loans [13][17] - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 411.98%, down 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a slight release of provisions to support profit growth [13][19] Wealth Management and Customer Growth - Wealth management income decreased by 21% in 2024, but the retail customer base grew steadily, reaching 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [18][28] - The total retail AUM reached 14.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [18][28] Capital Adequacy and Dividend Policy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose to 14.86%, indicating strong internal growth capacity and low refinancing risk [19] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 35.3%, slightly up from the previous year, suggesting sustainable high dividend returns [19][22] Future Outlook - The company plans for a loan growth of 7%-8% in 2025, with expectations of a challenging environment for revenue growth due to recent adjustments in the bond market affecting non-interest income [10][20] - The report emphasizes the company's robust asset quality and solid provisioning base, projecting continued profit growth and leading ROE in the industry [20][22]

市场上行趋势并未打破，财报季寻找顺周期和科技 的景气线索，中证A500ETF摩根（560530）交投活 跃 中银证券：市场上行趋势并未打破 中银证券表示，短期市场存在一定震荡调整的需求，但中期来看上行趋势并未打破。3月下旬，A 股即将进入财报窗口期，市场风险偏好或迎来阶段性震荡。当前中国资产部分重估的逻辑已经基本阶段 性计价，市场短期上行动能或有所趋缓。但当前国内基本面修复预期并未证伪，年内基本面弱修复的主 线仍在。 年初以来财政发力效果仍在持续显现，A股盈利有望修复；而当前全A ERP仍处于一倍标准差下沿 水平，盈利弱复苏周期成立的前提下，ERP仍有较强的修复空间及动能。因此，市场短期调整而非趋势 反转，信号上需要观察中美科技资产盈利估值比价，及国内基本面数据演化趋势。 短期调整之下，可以关注具备较强防御性与红利优势的部分赛道，重点关注：包括产业趋势强化、 保持高景气的新兴消费，政策催化、估值合意的中药，绿电趋势催化、行业现金流稳定的水电、核电， 有望受益于实体融资需求回暖的、稳定股息分红的国有银行，稳定现金流、近期有供给端催化的煤炭。 华西证券：如何理解本轮"回踩行情"？ 3月24日，中证A500ETF摩 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6%, the CSI 300 Index down 2.29%, and the Wind All A Index down 2.1% [1] - Industry performance varied, with construction materials, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities showing strong results, while sectors like computers, media, electronics, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] - The market style is leaning towards mid-cap value stocks, with an average daily trading volume of 15,496.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic data for January and February showed overall improvement, especially considering the high base from the previous year; the GDP growth rates for the first two quarters of last year were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with expectations for a smoother performance this year [2] - If macro data remains stable, certain cyclical sectors may outperform expectations, requiring analysis based on industry characteristics [2] - Industries experiencing upward inventory cycles are noteworthy, as they have struggled for investor recognition in the past two years, and current downstream replenishment activities may lead to valuation and performance increases [2]

Group 1 - The technology stock bull market that began after the Spring Festival continues to this day [1] - As the valuation repair approaches its end, the market logic will gradually shift towards performance-driven factors during the earnings season [2] - The market will face a new round of selection, and stock price fluctuations are inevitable [3] Group 2 - There are key questions regarding how to identify the strengths and weaknesses of companies, manage the operation rhythm of large-scale market trends, and layout strategies in the context of cyclical recovery [4] - The upcoming live broadcast on March 23 will feature industry chiefs and senior strategy analysts discussing market trends and investment strategies to help investors clarify their investment thoughts and seize opportunities [5][6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the metal industry, particularly highlighting the interplay between industrial metals and strategic metals, with a focus on supply constraints and seasonal demand [1][3]. Industrial Metals - The supply of industrial metals is expected to remain tight, with a strong demand season approaching, particularly for aluminum and copper. The report notes that aluminum prices have significantly improved due to a drop in alumina prices and robust demand from sectors like photovoltaics and automotive [5][17]. - Copper supply is projected to increase only modestly, with a net addition of 380,000 tons from 36 global mining companies, which is lower than previous expectations. This, combined with favorable macroeconomic policies, is expected to support copper prices in the second quarter [5][17]. - Steel sector performance is anticipated to be strong, driven by limited production expectations and seasonal demand, particularly during the "golden three months" of March to May [5]. Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as cobalt, tin, antimony, and titanium are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their rising valuations amid geopolitical tensions and export controls [5]. - The report suggests that the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry will enhance the attractiveness of strategic metals, with a focus on rare earth materials and other critical resources [5]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold is likely to remain in a comfortable price range, supported by factors such as inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases. The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to further bolster gold prices [12][13]. - The performance of precious metal equities is expected to improve, with a focus on companies that can deliver actual growth in a strong price environment. The report notes that valuations for gold stocks have become attractive, with several companies trading below 20x earnings [15][12]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing a bullish trend, with prices rising significantly due to low inventory levels and strong demand from various sectors. The report notes that as of March 10, 2025, the price of aluminum on the Shanghai market was 20,760 CNY per ton, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [17][19]. - Global aluminum inventories are at low levels, with significant reductions observed in LME and COMEX stocks, indicating a tightening supply situation that supports higher prices [23][25].

Group 1: Consumption Policy and Market Trends - The government is expected to implement policies to promote childbirth, with significant subsidies announced in Hohhot, which may catalyze demand in the maternal and infant sector, benefiting companies like Aiyingshi and Haiziwang [6][8] - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards quality supermarkets, driven by consumer demand for better product quality, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store expected to expand [7][8] - The "AI + Consumption" initiative is being emphasized, with potential growth in sectors like AI-integrated eyewear and e-commerce, highlighting companies such as Mingyue Optical and Ruoyuchen [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Aimeike plans to acquire REGEN Biotech, which could enhance its market position and valuation, as the acquisition is expected to provide significant growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [3] - The 3.8 promotion event on platforms like Tmall and Douyin showed strong performance, with brands like Juzi and Marubi exceeding expectations, indicating a robust recovery in the beauty sector [4][5] - Gaode Beauty reported a 9.3% increase in net sales for 2024, with significant growth in its aesthetic injection segment, particularly in China, where new products are expected to drive further growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a cyclical recovery in 2025, with improved consumption confidence and a favorable operating environment. The report highlights that the company has achieved single-digit growth in sales and revenue in January and February 2025, despite a high base from the previous year [1][4]. - The report notes that the company’s overall profit was significantly impacted by reduced government subsidies and land sales, which decreased by 670 million RMB in 2024 [1][3]. - The company is focusing on high-end product sales and brand building in the liquor segment, with a notable 35% increase in sales volume for its liquor products in 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 38.64 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.74 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.8% and 8.1%, respectively. The core net profit showed a slight increase of 0.2% [1][6]. - The beer segment experienced a revenue decline of 1.0% in 2024, with a volume decrease of 2.5%, while the average price increased by 1.5% [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 42.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions [3][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing strategies to enhance its high-end product offerings and improve brand positioning, particularly in the beer and liquor segments. The report indicates that the company has successfully increased sales of premium brands like Heineken and Red Label [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost management and operational efficiency, with a focus on maintaining a low inventory level and optimizing the supply chain [1][3]. Valuation and Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.57 RMB for 2025, with a target price of 37.41 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025 [4][8]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with a forecasted revenue increase of 3.29% in 2025 [6][4].